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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour should be second favourite in Thanet South not a 10-
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour should be second favourite in Thanet South not a 10-1 outsider
I understand from those close to UKIP that the well-funded and well-organised Farage campaign is becoming a tad concerned about the personable Will Scobie, the former Mayor of Margate and local councillor who is standing for Labour.
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10-1 in what most of the polling has as a three-way marginal is an insane price.
OTOH it could be a cunning double-bluff...
Lab 33.8
Con 33.3
UKIP 13.6
LD 8.0
Green 5.7
Lab lead 0.5% (caveat: still awaiting Opinium and Sunday YG!)
(cf. 0.0% w/e 15th Mar, 0.3% 8th Mar, 0.7% 1st Mar)
You can buy labour on SPIN's spreads @ 5
That would give you an evens bet on them coming second & 4/1 on them winning.
Sounds to me like the value is on labour coming second - if you think it's a better than evens chance, then SPINS's bet is value.
Well, the first lady of England has spoken.
Its all over for ed now...
What could possibly go wrong?
They're holding their price at 5 though - that's despite them telling me I've reached my maximum position. They'll take bets from others but not me.
Virtually nothing in the news about it but the Guardian's attempt to get Prince Charles' letters to ministers published is hotting up. The supreme court's judgement on whether the government acted illegally in blocking the letters is due next Thursday.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/20/prince-charles-letters-supreme-court-judgment-due
Admittedly it's the Guardian's own story but the government's defence for not publishing seems outrageous. I thought Dominic Grieve was one of the more sensible Tories but he basically seemed to be saying that publishing would threaten Charles' role as a future king so therefore the correspondence must remain private. Essentially the public must live in ignorance of who their future monarch is because if they knew who he was his position would be in jeopardy.
In a modern democratic nation that tries not to sensor information - unbelieveable.
Price will come in now it's featured on here.
@hugorifkind: In belated fairness to Cameron, when somebody gets suspended from UKIP, "fruitcake, loony or closet racist?" is still the question you ask.
Lab -5.53
LD -313.53
UKIP +36.8
Fwiw
As said - cobblers.
more interesting's the populus poll. Said I had misgivings re the budget. If thats repeated at weekend then its a disaster for tories. Just don't think national debt repayment is a vote winner. People want £££ back in their pocket. We're all used to living with debt. We want to ease off the austerity. Yep you tories put us back in good shape but now's time to get a life.
If Prince Charles should not be brought into controversy then he should shut his gob and not enter into anything controversial.
What is sauce for the goose...................
Even money
Just a point...
"For 10 years, the government, with the support of Charles, has been resisting a freedom of information request by the Guardian to see the letters sent by the prince to ministers in which he sought to change policies."
So not exactly just the current government who have been doing this, but stupid of Grieve.
Neither is whiny Geordie catnip - but ...
* Very high maintenance for a dull ride.
First thing I see? Ad for farmers market! Every sat 10-2 at William Ellis school
"Twitter Tart" might be more accurate?
Is there a spread market on how many UKIP candidates will be left standing on the day?
Did the 2015 budget lose the tories the election?
Huge number in the entertainment and media, many would say opinion formers, are going to be hit for having a half decent house in a decent part of London. Where as for example they have been able to shield themselves from paying 50p tax, reduce their tax bill using perfect legal means like paying share dividends to family, and offset of expenses through their service companies.
9-2 Labour is ok as well.
Anyway OGH seems to be shouting 'vote kipper get labour'.
At the previous election, Tory voters showed some reluctance to vote tactically, so unless attitudes are different this time around the Labour man in S Thanet cannot expect them to help him over the line.
Labour voters might be more inclined to vote tactically, but I suspect they would do so more to UKIP's benefit than the Tory candidate.
Nigel is safe.
In return, the UK proposal to let EDF (i.e. Electricite de France) build a £16 billion nuke at Hinkley Point (subsidised by electriciy consumers) will not be taken to the Court of Justice for breaching state aid rules.
If I was a Euro-sceptic MP, I'd be outraged. It seems to give away a huge amount in exchange for a rather minor concession. DECC must have been desperate to save face.
Courage man - and shuffle the cards !
What has Ed to say about this attack on Democracy?
Probably as much as he has to say about phone hacking at the Mirror.
**tumbleweed**
is today the day we see 7,000?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1dVo4dE5YRjdtOWs/view?usp=sharing
Given that only 25 seats are priced for the SNP at 1/2 or shorter, there still seems to be value here if (like me) you believe there is a better than two in three chance that the SNP will get more than 25 seats. The Labour seats where the SNP are priced between 1/2 and 2/1 continue to look worthy of close scrutiny.
There are, however, only three Scottish seats where the SNP are priced at longer than 2/1: East Renfrewshire, Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk and Orkney & Shetland.
There are now a huge number of bookies in the Scottish seat markets.
Mr. Voter, that sounds bloody ridiculous.
1) Labour has NOT ruled out a deal with the SNP. It has ruled out a coalition.
2) It is such a tight range that SDLP gets Lab + Lib Dem over the line, rather than Lab + Lib Dem.
3) Even if the SDLP join up with the Lib Dems and Labour they are surely odds against to have a ministrable position.
4) Greens have ruled out a coalition.
5) PC have ruled out a coalition by proxy, they can be included in the SNP minority Lab support bloc.
6) The DUP aren't interested in being in Gov't, at all. It is apple pie for NI in return for minority support for them.
Not tempted by 7.0 at all.
Also Labour could possibly get the support of both the DUP and SDLP as minority supporters - that won't happen if the SDLP is in Gov't.
Farage delivers another seat to Miliband.
Oh deep joy. Not.
"Sorely tempted to change my username to Pop Strumpet now"
Pop tart.
That's when the rhetoric meets the cold hard mathematical reality.
It's important to understand that there doesn't need to be a deal to support a minority government, there only needs to be the absence of a majority to vote it down. In practice, in a hung parliament where Lab+SNP is over 325, I would expect the SNP to cause as much havoc as possible without actually voting against Labour in a confidence motion, at least for a while.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/goodlife/11484756/Model-railways-showed-an-idealised-England-until-sexy-scenes-came-along.html
Unfortunately the "Any other Gov't" at 5000-1 is actually "Any other majority" with Corals.
Cheryl Sol and Mylene.
And what an articulate trio "I pay a f—ing lot of tax. So I think that I need to have a really well-informed, well-educated opinion.” said Cheryl
As Sting was heard to mumble "You can take the girl out of Newcastle but you can't take Newcastle out of the girl"
The gag is that Ms F-V is anything but a pop strumpet. Her husband's very high profile cheating clearly affected her very deeply, and still does.