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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big GE15 gamble is trying to work out what all the poll

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015

    isam said:

    The pub tmrw night isn't the same one as election night is it?

    I believe that's right - the election-night gig is in Earl's Court, IIRC.
    So no need to check wifi etc then

    Are you going to this shindig tmrw? Is anyone? Will people still be there at 930?

    Will the football be on???
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    hunchman said:

    Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.

    So far David Icke is right about everything bar the lizards?
    Well, roughly speaking, yes. Top-level filth don't tend to do cover-ups to protect Joe Bloggs of East Cheam, do they? What is your point?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.

    So far David Icke is right about everything bar the lizards?
    Go through all of the alternative media on this like I did for a fortnight and come to your own conclusions. The msm with d notices and the like are effectively not a free press any longer sadly.
    The last sentence seems to imply that if we follow your instructions in the first sentence and come to the same conclusion as our unfree press, we are just wrong, so the 'come to your own conclusions' bit seems out of place. If someone gets it 'wrong' they are to be dismissed as not getting it - it flows in both directions, that vein of thought.

    Night all. May the truth, however unpalatable or seemingly improbable, win out.

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    Are you going to this shindig tmrw? Is anyone? Will people still be there at 930?

    Will the football be on???

    I'm hoping to make it, but I expect that by 9.30 it will be down to the hard core.

    I've no idea about football!
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    So would a Labour lead this week be CrossBackOver?
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    hunchman said:

    Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.

    Where are the holograms?
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.

    Where are the holograms?
    With respect flightpath I don't think such a serious subject merits your flippant response
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    Miliband was always going to make some sort of announcement to distance himself from the SNP not because of the Tories but because in England such an alliance would be viewed as toxic.......
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    So would a Labour lead this week be CrossBackOver?

    ELBOW was an exact tie yesterday.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Danny565 said:

    So would a Labour lead this week be CrossBackOver?

    ELBOW was an exact tie yesterday.
    I suspect it's very close to a tie today too.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    The weakness Miliband has shown with his kow tow to the Tory demands will hurt him badly.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    Miliband was always going to make some sort of announcement to distance himself from the SNP not because of the Tories but because in England such an alliance would be viewed as toxic.......
    Whether he was or wasn't, doing it because the Tories are demanding it looks very bad.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country.George, the great pretender, would like you to believe that he can pull a cost free surprise on Wednesday but it will not be possible.He may raise the inheritance tax threshold to 1 million but this will please those that have enough already.It will not affect the cost of living for the average person.

    Really?
    I think you are wrong predicionally, historically and economically.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002083.html#more'
    'The cumulative undershoot, £32bn, is not huge but it not to be sneezed at either.
    Goldman Sachs predicts a deficit undershoot of £8bn for this year alone, followed by £13bn next year, 2015-16. Its prediction of £83bn of borrowing this year would take Osborne close to halving the deficit in cash terms,''
    OBR projections for 2020 suggest bringing spending ''to 36% of GDP to generate a small budget surplus; slightly higher than when Gordon Brown was chancellor in 1999-2000''

    The inherited structural deficit was bigger than the Treasury estimated hence paying it back is taking longer. The Eurozone crisis did not help.
    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002078.html
    ''as the IFS points out, was that official estimates of the size of the “structural” budget deficit – that which is not dependent on the economic cycle – increased between 2010 and the end of 2012. Osborne could have tried to compensate for that underlying deterioration but chose instead to defer the additional deficit reduction needed until the next parliament.
    Given all that, the govts record is not bad

    In another article David Smith points out...
    ''the primary deficit, one measure, has halved in cash terms, from £131.9 billion in 2009-10 to £66.3 billion in 2013-14, with a projected deficit of £60.4 billion this year.
    In the 1980s, the then Conservative government targeted the public sector borrowing requirement (PSBR), now renamed the public sector net cash requirement (PSNCR). More than most measures, it is subject to significant distortions, but on the ex banks measure it has come down from £198.8 billion in 2009-10, to £63.8 billion in 2013-14.''
  • Options
    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Ishmael_X said:

    hunchman said:

    Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.

    So far David Icke is right about everything bar the lizards?
    Well, roughly speaking, yes. Top-level filth don't tend to do cover-ups to protect Joe Bloggs of East Cheam, do they? What is your point?
    No real point. just somewhat discombobulated by the whole thing. Thinking myself lucky that I navigated a 1970s childhood without harm, considering the apparent ubiquity.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244
    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    The weakness Miliband has shown with his kow tow to the Tory demands will hurt him badly.
    I thought he was stupid to make that commitment because I don't think he'll have enough seats to rule as a minority government (so no coalition=no Ed PM). But I'm interested: do you think the commitment will hurt him outwith Scotland? Labour are dead in Scotland so redirecting his efforts to England could be justified as minimising the losses.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    viewcode said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    The weakness Miliband has shown with his kow tow to the Tory demands will hurt him badly.
    I thought he was stupid to make that commitment because I don't think he'll have enough seats to rule as a minority government (so no coalition=no Ed PM). But I'm interested: do you think the commitment will hurt him outwith Scotland? Labour are dead in Scotland so redirecting his efforts to England could be justified as minimising the losses.
    The Scottish vote is entrenched for the SNP and soft for Labour. So any black swans can only help the SNP. However, I don't think this one is a black swan, most SNP voters will do what Nicola Sturgeon did today - shrug.

    The main thing Ed's announcement has done, is as you say, made it necessary for him to stand aside and let another Labour MP become PM in quite a few potential scenarios.

    I genuinely wonder if Labour are determined to destroy themselves intentionally.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Dair said:

    viewcode said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    The weakness Miliband has shown with his kow tow to the Tory demands will hurt him badly.
    I thought he was stupid to make that commitment because I don't think he'll have enough seats to rule as a minority government (so no coalition=no Ed PM). But I'm interested: do you think the commitment will hurt him outwith Scotland? Labour are dead in Scotland so redirecting his efforts to England could be justified as minimising the losses.
    The Scottish vote is entrenched for the SNP and soft for Labour. So any black swans can only help the SNP. However, I don't think this one is a black swan, most SNP voters will do what Nicola Sturgeon did today - shrug.

    The main thing Ed's announcement has done, is as you say, made it necessary for him to stand aside and let another Labour MP become PM in quite a few potential scenarios.

    I genuinely wonder if Labour are determined to destroy themselves intentionally.
    I've seperated out Labour Minority and Ed PM bets on my spreadsheet for a reason :D
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    As much as I hate to admit it, a Tory majority is looking tricky. What budgetary action would be the most politically damaging for Labour to repeal?
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Hengists_Gift viewcode

    Total misreading of English priorities of Labour voters which is to get rid of the Tories which they backed 6-1 (the 6 being coalition with the SNP the 1 being letting the Tories govern), Scotland is irretrievably lost anyway for Labour. All that Milliband has done is demonstrate weakness.

    Every time the Tories mentioned him getting into Downing Street all he had to say was that they were conceding the election. He didn't because he is no use whatsoever.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    viewcode said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    The weakness Miliband has shown with his kow tow to the Tory demands will hurt him badly.
    I thought he was stupid to make that commitment because I don't think he'll have enough seats to rule as a minority government (so no coalition=no Ed PM). But I'm interested: do you think the commitment will hurt him outwith Scotland? Labour are dead in Scotland so redirecting his efforts to England could be justified as minimising the losses.
    The Scottish vote is entrenched for the SNP and soft for Labour. So any black swans can only help the SNP. However, I don't think this one is a black swan, most SNP voters will do what Nicola Sturgeon did today - shrug.

    The main thing Ed's announcement has done, is as you say, made it necessary for him to stand aside and let another Labour MP become PM in quite a few potential scenarios.

    I genuinely wonder if Labour are determined to destroy themselves intentionally.
    I've often thought that the unspoken aim of a party politician is to lead his party: actually achieving power is a nice-to-have rather than a must-have. I assume the lack of putsch from Balls, Burnham et al is because they're waiting for Ed to f**k it up then become Labour Leader after May 7th. It's only after 8-10 years of opposition do parties stop messing around and start seriously appointing people who can appeal to others rather than scratch their own itches. This would explain IDS's stint as Con leader, Miliband's stint as Lab leader, and presumably Farron's stint as LD leader after May 7th.

  • Options
    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    Miliband was always going to make some sort of announcement to distance himself from the SNP not because of the Tories but because in England such an alliance would be viewed as toxic.......
    Whether he was or wasn't, doing it because the Tories are demanding it looks very bad.
    He'll be more likely doing it because his party and his focus groups are telling him to do it. That he's done it despite the Tories demanding it (which does give the impression that he's reacting to the Tories) suggests it is resonating quite strongly on the doorstep.
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    I really don't want to take the piss out of you, you are managing quite well on your own.
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    Unofficially Labour says the SNP get nothing......

    But The Herald understands that Labour MPs have been briefed that their party would also reject an informal arrangement.

    MPs have been told that Labour would not offer the SNP policy concessions as part of a so-called "confidence and supply" deal.

    Instead, Labour will seek to secure SNP votes by accusing the party of backing the Tories if it votes against a Labour minority government.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/labour-and-the-snp-hit-out-after-coalition-deal-ruled-out.120810511
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,244
    scotslass said:

    All that Milliband has done is demonstrate weakness...Every time the Tories mentioned him getting into Downing Street all he had to say was that they were conceding the election. He didn't because he is no use whatsoever.

    I know.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    Unofficially Labour says the SNP get nothing......

    But The Herald understands that Labour MPs have been briefed that their party would also reject an informal arrangement.

    MPs have been told that Labour would not offer the SNP policy concessions as part of a so-called "confidence and supply" deal.

    Instead, Labour will seek to secure SNP votes by accusing the party of backing the Tories if it votes against a Labour minority government.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/labour-and-the-snp-hit-out-after-coalition-deal-ruled-out.120810511

    What sort of backwards ass blackmail is that !
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    Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Dair said:

    viewcode said:

    Dair said:

    scotslass said:

    Do posters on this site really not fully appreciate what a complete dork is the Milliband?

    Labour have been improving over the last few days because the Tories (Cameron and his boss Crosby) have been depicting him as Prime Minister. Few, if anyone, gives two hoots whether he gets in by the front door, the back door or with the help of the SNP. All that matters is that the Tories are conceding the election! This is what Milliband should have said to Cameron last Wednesday. Instead he allows himself to be pressurised into making a foolish commitment to no coalition with the SNP.

    This won't bother the SNP who didn't really want one anyway, or Scottish voters who are fed up with Labour or English voters who have other things to worry about.

    ALL THIS INFANTILE SPEECH DOES IS TO SHOW THAT MILLIBAND GETS BOUNCED AROUND BY THE TORY PRESS. AND ONCE BOUNCED THEY WILL MAKE THE DORK BOUNCE AGAIN.

    The weakness Miliband has shown with his kow tow to the Tory demands will hurt him badly.
    I thought he was stupid to make that commitment because I don't think he'll have enough seats to rule as a minority government (so no coalition=no Ed PM). But I'm interested: do you think the commitment will hurt him outwith Scotland? Labour are dead in Scotland so redirecting his efforts to England could be justified as minimising the losses.
    The Scottish vote is entrenched for the SNP and soft for Labour. So any black swans can only help the SNP. However, I don't think this one is a black swan, most SNP voters will do what Nicola Sturgeon did today - shrug.

    The main thing Ed's announcement has done, is as you say, made it necessary for him to stand aside and let another Labour MP become PM in quite a few potential scenarios.

    I genuinely wonder if Labour are determined to destroy themselves intentionally.
    Dire,

    I think everyone on this site realises that the SNP promise the moon, because they can, unfortunately, they can't deliver and never have done. (OK, I will give you centralising and beginning the arming of the police, cutting the courts, giving every child a state appointed guardian from 7 months of conception to 18, really creating a creeping SNP nanny state)

    They are a populist party, saying anything that they think people will believe, but, if Labour or the Conservatives get an overall majority via England, then it won't matter how many SNP MP's get elected, they will only be able to sit on their useless backsides until the next GE. Just look at the muppets sitting behind Nicola for prime examples. I wonder how many will be only too happy to contest the next Holyrood election if they realise that they will have to suffer another 5 years of following the
    party line.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Agreed.

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.

    It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.

    As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
    The budget
    That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
    No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653

    YouGov - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

    Must be an outlier :)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    YouGov - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

    Must be an outlier :)
    35% strategy
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    Pulpstar said:

    Unofficially Labour says the SNP get nothing......

    But The Herald understands that Labour MPs have been briefed that their party would also reject an informal arrangement.

    MPs have been told that Labour would not offer the SNP policy concessions as part of a so-called "confidence and supply" deal.

    Instead, Labour will seek to secure SNP votes by accusing the party of backing the Tories if it votes against a Labour minority government.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/labour-and-the-snp-hit-out-after-coalition-deal-ruled-out.120810511

    What sort of backwards ass blackmail is that !
    A typical Brownite triangulation if you ask me......
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    fitalass said:

    Agreed.

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.

    It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.

    As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
    The budget
    That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
    No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
    Yep the pastie tax certainly did that.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Edin_Rokz said:

    I think everyone on this site realises that the SNP promise the moon, because they can, unfortunately, they can't deliver and never have done. (OK, I will give you centralising and beginning the arming of the police, cutting the courts, giving every child a state appointed guardian from 7 months of conception to 18, really creating a creeping SNP nanny state)

    They are a populist party, saying anything that they think people will believe, but, if Labour or the Conservatives get an overall majority via England, then it won't matter how many SNP MP's get elected, they will only be able to sit on their useless backsides until the next GE. Just look at the muppets sitting behind Nicola for prime examples. I wonder how many will be only too happy to contest the next Holyrood election if they realise that they will have to suffer another 5 years of following the
    party line.

    A fine analysis.

    With just one tiny flaw.

    The SNP is a party of government. Your rant that they can promise what they want because they will never have to follow through is rather flawed when, as a party, they remain incredibly popular after 8 years in Government at Holyrood.

    Tony Blair couldn't dream of such numbers and he had an effectively unlimited budget. The SNP do better despite a very restrictive budgetary framework.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    fitalass said:

    Agreed.

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.

    It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.

    As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
    The budget
    That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
    No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
    No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to cock it up, too.

    The £1m inheritance tax stuff strikes me as bizarre. A core-vote policy this late in the game? Labour will take that and run with it, especially in the Midlands marginals.

    I have a suspicion George knows that defeat is pretty likely and is having a last shot at wooing the party faithful for when Dave's job becomes vacant.
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912

    Pulpstar

    How about this from the New Statesman

    "But some Labour politicians are even calling for tactical voting in Scotland with the Tories to keep the SNP out. This is simply unfathomable. If Labour stands shoulder to shoulder with the Tories again in defence of the Union then they are giving themselves no chance of ever recovering in Scotland and making it more likely that the Tories stay on office. All of which just accelerates the shift to independence. Arguing that a vote for the SNP will let the Tories in because Labour will never do a deal with the SNP is about as warped as political blackmail gets."

    If NS has seen through this nonsence then the energised Scottish electorate will probably manage pretty comfortably!
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited March 2015
    Osborne got burnt by Clegg/Libdem briefing pre budget in 2012, I noted at the time he would learn the lessons quickly. Personally, I think that Osborne will make this budget about the economy and keeping it on track rather than gimmicks like this that are best left for a Conservative majority government to deliver. I hope that there is something in the budget to help the North Sea Oil&Gas sector which would scunner the SNP Government at Holyrood.

    Twitter
    James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers · 3h 3 hours ago
    Senior Tory on Lib leak of IHT plan 'Usually at this time we get leaks of what's in the Budget. This is a leak of what's not in the Budget'
    Pong said:

    fitalass said:

    Agreed.

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.

    It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.

    As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
    The budget
    That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
    No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
    No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to cock it up, too.

    The £1m inheritance tax stuff strikes me as bizarre. A core-vote policy this late in the game? Labour will take that and run with it, especially in the Midlands marginals.

    I have a suspicion George knows that defeat is pretty likely and is having a last shot at wooing the party faithful for when Dave's job becomes vacant.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Jim Murphy is making Lynton Crosby's campaign techniques look like virgin white snow.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited March 2015
    While some on here watch the polls, its absolutely fascinating to watch some of the on the ground campaigns or lack of them in individual constituencies in Scotland. Its worth noting which parties are targeting and spending money while others do not appear to be even bothering so far in these key target constituencies.
    Pulpstar said:

    Jim Murphy is making Lynton Crosby's campaign techniques look like virgin white snow.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    fitalass said:

    While some on here watch the polls, its absolutely fascinating to watch some of the on the ground campaigns or lack of them in individual constituencies in Scotland. Its worth noting which parties are targeting and spending money while others do not appear to be even bothering so far in these constituencies.

    Pulpstar said:

    Jim Murphy is making Lynton Crosby's campaign techniques look like virgin white snow.

    Well I'm guessing West Aberdeenshire has Lib Con and SNP ground game all out. Million to one it goes Labour so they probably won't bother
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,899
    Lord Renwick’s crisp and candid record shows beyond dispute that Thatcher was the most effective of leaders outside South Africa in nudging the parties and their main leaders—Mandela and Frederik de Klerk (always known by his initials, F.W.)—towards the negotiations that led to South Africa’s freedom under a universal franchise in 1994. While the Americans were engrossed in overseeing the collapse of the Soviet Union, Thatcher, via her envoy, relentlessly bombarded first President P.W. Botha and then his successor, Mr de Klerk, with missives demanding that they free Mandela, unban the ANC, dismantle apartheid and let people choose their own government, while assuring them that she sought to end South Africa’s isolation as soon as possible

    http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21646186-british-diplomat-puts-old-canard-rest-much-be-thankful?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/Renwick
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653
    Pulpstar said:

    YouGov - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%

    Must be an outlier :)
    35% strategy
    Need YG and ICM tables to calculate ELBOW for this week's polls, but simple average is Tory lead of 0.3%.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,178



    even Mr Brooke describes banks as incompetent and venal.

    that's on a good day, you should try me on a bad one. :-)

    but you make a good point Miliband has understood people have had enough of current style corporatism. Sadly Cameron "detoxed" on touchy feely things which are fine for when we're fat dumb and happy, but have lttle popular support when times are hard.

    Miliband is hostile to private sector corporatism but strongly supportive of public sector corporatism.

    Cameron is moderately supportive of both.

    Why Cameron is so tolerated of public sector fatcats baffles me, perhaps because a public sector fatcat doesn't look so fat to someone of Cameron's background.
    Cameron is just too far removed fromlife outside the SE to widen his appeal. That by itself shouldn't stop the Conservatives, but since he won't widen his circle to let others appeal to the North, the Midlands and Scotland he will once again fail to gain a majority.
    Ironically Cameron has very little experience of London outside its privileged centre.

    Leading to the Notting Hill dinner party focus group fallacy.

    Likewise his knowledge of the south-east generally is far too 'Chipping Norton' with a disdain for 'Clacton'.

    Conservative majorities are won neither in Notting Hill nor in Chipping Norton.
    I think it's you who is full of fallacies.
    Is that really the best you can do ?

    Does licking spit give you a meaning in life Flightpath ?

    Try thinking for yourself now and again instead of reciting what you're told to.
This discussion has been closed.