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Although the Tories remain strong favourites to get most seats this time, the Tories should be terrified by the 19% lead Labour have on the "likeability" ratings. Just imagine what it could be like next time if Labour actually get a likeable, relateable, human leader (though admittedly that isn't a shoo-in taking into account Yvette Cooper and Chuka Umunna are among the "contenders" for the position).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/31913338
After that we will be getting the Labour Lions if Assem Allam has his way.
Funnily enough I don't dislike Ed M as much as others seem to. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in terms of personal likeability though I think he is pretty ruthless when needed.
I just don't see him as a leader and don't think he has done any real thinking about what is needed for a left of centre/social democratic party to thrive in the age we live in and for the future.
I quite liked Neil Kinnock and thought he was brave in taking on Militant but he led a party which was unelectable at that time.
Blair - whom everyone went dewy-eyed over at the start - I never liked. He was always too glib, too much the barrister able to give whatever performance his client needed from him at the time and, frankly, too much of a narcissistic weasel. You could see him acting his part. There was something fundamentally untrustworthy about him from the start, not least because he faked sincerity and trustworthiness so well.
FPT. OT Any poster interested in maths autism China or who went to Trinity college Cambridge a new English film X+Y might interest them. In many ways it did what 'Theory of Everything' didn't do and made all of the above interesting
Added. Perhaps the zeitgeist is moving towards the socially inadequate geek? It wouldn't be the first time life had imitated art
My partner recently met Chuka and said he did human well. She was pretty impressed by how he conducted himself, but hey he is a politician, isn't that what they are supposed to be able to do? We have just become accustomed to ones that are weird or detached from reality.
Easterross • Posts: 1,776
7:10PM
Before people get carried away with some journalists and so called experts desperate wish for a Labour victory at any cost, as regulars say the trend is your friend.
Over the past 9 months
ICM has gone from Labour leads of 7 to Tory leads of 1 and 4
Populus has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and tied
Survation with the exception of January's Tory lead maintains Labour 4 to 6 ahead
ComRes has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2
Opinium has gone from Labour leads of 6 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2
YouGov has gone from Labour leads of 5 and 6 to Tory leads of between 1 and 4 in 6 out of the last 10 polls with 2 tied and 2 Labour leads
Ashcroft has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 9 to Tory leads of 2 to 4
IpsosMori has edged down from Labour leads of 3 to 1 with a couple of 3 point Tory leads at the end of last year.
TNS remains stuck on Labour leads of 7
The Ashcroft marginal polls which in some cases are now 9 months old showed Labour taking its 1st 19 Tory targets and in 10 of them with a notional lead of less than 10%
He then showed then taking the next 7 with notional leads in 5 of them of under 10%
He showed them taking more than another 13 and among that 13 were more Tory holds than losses.
So Ashcroft showed Labour winning no more than 40 seats before hitting the Tory firewall of holds. Those 40 seats are not consecutive because there are 13 Tory holds, starting with Pudsey at No 22.
So at best Labour MIGHT on a good night win as many seats from the Tories as it is expected to lose to the SNP. Given that half those potential 40 Labour gains were showing leads of under 10%, the chances are that Labour must realistically be looking at a net loss of seats, depending on how many it can win from the Liberals.
People like the idea of Labour.
Actually voting for Ed Miliband???
That's a different matter.
It might get him just across the threshold of No 10, but if so that's when the trouble will begin. You can't avoid decisions if you're Prime Minister.
"Yvette Cooper has all the personality of a dishcloth."
You are Nigel Farage and I claim £5
It takes a while to realise that while they are shiny and polished and well-behaved and educated to within an inch of their lives they have not an original or interesting thought in their heads, lack any real courage - moral or otherwise - and are proceeding smoothly along the track lines of their received life.
This is usually enough for a successful life.
But it does not necessarily make a leader, let alone a successful one. A good leader is not made by management theory.
Is that because ICM is normally more favorable to the LDs? - I've lost track with all these single figure polling.
BTW I saw a French film "The Untouchables" last night which was hugely enjoyable if full of schmalz. But done with such verve and brio and with some touching central performances. I realise it's a couple of years old but if you haven't seen it, do make the effort.
Thurrock Con: 2 6% UKIP GAIN
Hendon Con: 3 15% LAB GAIN
Cardiff North Con: 4 11% LAB GAIN
Sherwood Con: 5 9% LAB GAIN
Norwich South LD: 1 13% LAB GAIN
Stockton South Con: 6 3% LAB GAIN
Broxtowe Con: 7 9% LAB GAIN
Lancaster & Fleetwood Con: 8 14% LAB GAIN
Bradford East LD: 2 22% LAB GAIN
Amber Valley Con: 9 4% LAB GAIN
Waveney Con: 10 9% LAB GAIN
Wolverhampton South West Con: 11 16% LAB GAIN
Morecambe & Lunesdale Con: 12 3% LAB GAIN
Carlisle Con: 13 11% LAB GAIN
Stroud Con: 14 11% LAB GAIN
Weaver Vale Con: 15 9% LAB GAIN
Lincoln Con: 16 4% LAB GAIN
Brighton Pavilion Green: 1 10% GREEN HOLD
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Con: 17 13% LAB GAIN
Dewsbury Con: 18 10% LAB GAIN
Warrington South Con: 19 8% LAB GAIN
Brent Central LD: 3 35% LAB GAIN
Bedford Con: 20 10% LAB GAIN
Brighton Kemptown Con: 21 4% LAB GAIN
Pudsey Con: 22 0% TIE
Corby* Con: 23 10% LAB HOLD
Brentford & Isleworth Con: 24 13% LAB GAIN
Hove Con: 25 3% LAB GAIN
Enfield North Con: 26 10% LAB GAIN
Hastings & Rye Con: 27 9% LAB GAIN
Manchester Withington LD: 4 34% LAB GAIN
Burnley LD: 5 13% LAB GAIN
Ipswich Con: 28 7% LAB GAIN
Dundee East SNP: 1
Dunbartonshire East LD: 6
Halesowen & Rowley Regis Con: 29 1% LAB GAIN
Nuneaton Con: 30 3% LAB GAIN
Gloucester Con: 31 1% CON HOLD
Northampton North Con: 32 4% LAB GAIN
Bury North Con: 33 9% LAB GAIN
Kingswood Con: 34 2% CON HOLD
Erewash Con: 35 8% LAB GAIN
Blackpool North & Cleveleys Con: 36 3% CON HOLD
City of Chester Con: 37 1% LAB GAIN
Arfon PC: 1
Croydon Central Con: 38 6% LAB GAIN
Worcester Con: 39 2% LAB GAIN
Keighley Con: 40 6% LAB GAIN
Wirral West Con: 41 1% LAB GAIN
Cannock Chase Con: 42 2% LAB GAIN
Loughborough Con: 43 3% CON HOLD
Harrow East Con: 44 3% CON HOLD
Warwick & Leamington Con: 45 4% CON HOLD
Birmingham Yardley LD: 7 3% LIB HOLD
Swindon South Con: 46 0% TIE
Ealing Central & Acton Con: 47 6% LAB GAIN
Pendle Con: 48 3% CON HOLD
Stevenage Con: 49 5% LAB GAIN
Elmet & Rothwell Con: 50 4% CON HOLD
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South Con: 51 4% CON HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan Con: 52 6% CON HOLD
Argyll & Bute LD: 9
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale Con: 53 0% TIE
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr PC: 2
Norwich North Con: 54 1% LAB GAIN
High Peak Con: 55 1% LAB GAIN
Milton Keynes South Con: 56
Rossendale & Darwen Con: 57
Cleethorpes Con: 58
Somerset North East Con: 59
Great Yarmouth Con: 60 2% CON HOLD
Dudley South Con: 61
Dover Con: 62
Colne Valley Con: 63 1% CON HOLD
South Ribble Con: 64
Peterborough Con: 65
Stafford Con: 66
Stourbridge Con: 67
Harlow Con: 68
Watford Con: 69 2% CON HOLD
Aberconwy Con: 70
Ilford North Con: 71
Preseli Pembrokeshire Con: 72
Brigg & Goole Con: 73
Crewe & Nantwich Con: 74
Bristol North West Con: 75
Battersea Con: 76
Finchley & Golders Green Con: 77
Calder Valley Con: 78
Redcar LD: 10 21% LAB GAIN
Crawley Con: 79
Hornsey & Wood Green LD: 11 13% LAB GAIN
Reading West Con: 80
Rugby Con: 81
Burton Con: 82
Cardiff Central LD: 12 12% LAB GAIN
Na h-Eileanan an Iar SNP: 2
Basildon South & Thurrock East Con: 83 6% CON HOLD
Tamworth Con: 84
Redditch Con: 85
Chatham & Aylesford Con: 86
Swindon North Con: 87
Derbyshire South Con: 88
Filton & Bradley Stoke Con: 89
Leicestershire North West Con: 90
Dorset South Con: 91
Cambridge LD: 13 1% LAB GAIN
Staffordshire Moorlands Con: 92
Northampton South Con: 93
Gordon LD: 14 17% SNP GAIN
Scarborough & Whitby Con: 94
Portsmouth North Con: 95
Thanet South Con: 96 1% CON HOLD
Milton Keynes North Con: 97
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross LD: 15
Clwyd West Con: 98
Reading East Con: 99
Enfield Southgate Con: 100
I'm not sure that it's correct that he has not made decisions. He may have made the wrong ones but he has made some: income tax up, mansion tax, taxes on pensions, taxes on bankers' bonuses, no EU referendum, repeal of the NHS reorganisation, no bedroom tax, university tuition fees down, caps/freezes on energy prices, no more free schools and more LA control over existing ones, a clampdown on tax avoidance and corporation tax up.
That's not an entirely blank piece of paper.
Canvassing a con lab marginal today, which cons won on less than a thousand in 2010. Knocking in a ward that has delivered labour councillors without fail for 20 years, i'm a bit shocked by how many switchers to cons we come across. Without prompting one life long labour voter was berating Miliband and Balls. She then said very quietly, "i quite like david cameron". Another response later on was 'undecided', digging a bit deeper, she told me she had always voted Labour, but everything seemed to be going good at the moment.
Looking at the last batch of polls the Tory vote has not moved much so maybe its figure is reliable. Labour has moved a bit in a couple and the Greens dipped. So maybe both Labour and the LDs are getting a bit back from the Greens and Labour a bit from the SNP (???)
The LDs have being doing their best to look united and positive at their conference as well so that might help them.
The tories will learn at this election that a good chunk of voters voted for them up until 2010 because they saw them as the only hope for defending Judeo - Christian values against secularists and social-secularists. Thats gone now. Personally I would have prefered to see such people vote UKIP instead but such people tend to regard them as a bit boorish when compared with a constituency MP with a very good local record.
"BTW I saw a French film "The Untouchables" last night which was hugely enjoyable if full of schmalz. But done with such verve and brio and with some touching central performances. I realise it's a couple of years old but if you haven't seen it, do make the effort."
Was it was 'the Intouchables' a French film? If so it was made by my French producer and I loved it. We've worked together many times. What's more it made over $200,000,000 so he stopped being my producer and concentrated on movies! From every point of view an excellent effort which sold worldwide.
What is disappointing about him is that he lacks both empathy to anyone outside his privileged background AND ability to do intellectual thinking.
Now there's no shortage of 'real world' people who understand 'everyday life' and can see where the problems lie but are unable to turn their feelings and experiences into coherent ideas and policies.
Likewise there's no shortage of 'intellectual' people who are able to work out ideas and policies in theory but don't know how to apply them in the 'real world'.
But EdM seems to have the negative features of both type without either of the positives.
http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/labour-blocks-mccluskey-friend-karie-murphy-selection/4833
The 6 women reported as long listed are
Holly Walker-Lynch (who works for Linda McAven MEP), Jo Coles (runner up in York Central selection 2 weeks ago, works for Ed Balls, shortlisted for Halifax pre 2005), Dot Foster (Calderdale Cllr), Susan Hinchcliffe (Bradford Cllr), Naveeda Ikram (Bradford Cllr) and Jenny Lynn (Calderdale Cllr)
People like the idea of something for nothing. In the past all parties have tried to bribe electors with lower taxation and higher spending.
With such a big deficit (and massive debt) it is not credible any more for politicians to say they are going to spend more and tax less. Instead politicians are making promises to the elctorate about schemes paid for indirectly via companies.
Hence Labour plan to cut the prices that energy companies can charge and introduce additional taxes on bank bonuses.
The coalition has introduced more time off for parents at the expense of companies and a deposit levy on banks.
Expect more political bribes from political parties which impose burdens on companies to benefit electors.
He is - I imagine - gambling that a lot of people who are not Labour core vote share some of those assumptions. He's not entirely wrong on that: even Mr Brooke describes banks as incompetent and venal. I have said similar.
And given that even with the polls as they are he is in with a pretty good chance of becoming PM, he may well be successful.
I agree that what happens then will be interesting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2995583/Blair-seals-1million-donation-Labour-curb-influence-unions-stop-Miliband-lurching-left.html
With any luck len mccluskey will set up another party.
There have been some other good French films recently. L'Amour, for instance.
"It's a superb film"
It really was. If it had been American it really would have been schmalzy but they got the tone just right. Nothing was laid on with a shovel and as Cyclefree says two brilliant central performances
that's on a good day, you should try me on a bad one. :-)
but you make a good point Miliband has understood people have had enough of current style corporatism. Sadly Cameron "detoxed" on touchy feely things which are fine for when we're fat dumb and happy, but have lttle popular support when times are hard.
L'Amour was a masterpiece. Really. If you can say it of any film you can say it of that one
Labour leads last July
Stockton South - Lab +3
Amber Valley - Lab +4
Morecambe and Lunesdale + 3
If those constituency polls have moved like the nationals the Tories must be close. Survation had the Tories in the lead in Stockton around November.
Canvassing anecdote alert, found our strongest section of Labour vote at the weekend, all public sector professionals. The WWC seem to be melting away from Labour though.
My view for what little it's worth is both the Conservatives and Labour will pile up votes and majorities precisely where they don't need them.
'The rule of thumb is that Tory governments gain (and Lab opposition lose) a handful of percentage points in the final part of campaign (according to Peter Kelner). So neck-and-neck would seem a fairly good place for Tories to be in during March'
Peter Kellner did say that , but beyond 1992 and 1997 it is not true. The Tory vote fell quite a bit to the Alliance in the 1983 campaign, and the campaigns of 1959, 1964, February 1974 and 1987 saw the Tories do less well on polling day than implied by the polls a month or so earlier.
I do hope this phrase isn't copyright :
"---too much the barrister able to give whatever performance his client needed from him at the time and, frankly, too much of a narcissistic weasel."
His critique is good in an academic way; its his solutions that get delivered by owls from fairyland. He is in some ways a lot like his dad. Might have been a reasonable head of a University department.
But again thats not the point. A great film is not just its plot, its more than the sum of its parts. They had 3 goes at The Maltese Falcon before getting it right. The direct of this last effort had a big say in its success so maybe Nakache and (?) Toledano will go on to further great things.
Cameron is moderately supportive of both.
Why Cameron is so tolerated of public sector fatcats baffles me, perhaps because a public sector fatcat doesn't look so fat to someone of Cameron's background.
David Cameron: I want to stay on as an MP if I lose the General Election
"“It’s the country’s choice. If they hoof me out and go for the other guy, I’ll have to think of something else, but I hope I’ll still be a Member of Parliament. I love serving my constituents. I love politics. I love public service. It’s what I care about. It’s a vocation."
I can't imagine Cameron on the backbenches.
That may be a reason Labour's WWC vote is melting away - they are 'real world' people.
Whereas public sector professionals will try to extract moonbeams from cucumbers if the government pays them to do so.
Sadly you are quite wrong. If you have a job to do you cannot be liked all of the time. You can be respected but not liked. You guys always think that if you are liked it will generate votes and seats. I think not if you are respected you can do that.
When doing a job that requires tough decisions and choices there is only one way. You make those decisions with the following in mind.
Be firm, ........then be fair and only then .......be friendly
Always in that order . Sorry it just is.
The trouble is you don't and far from being terrified I think joe public is terrified of what Labour has done and will do in the future. Labours want to be loved and won't break eggs to get the job done.
it's their downfall because they don't observe the above rule.
The personal vote factor is pretty big in my patch - about a third of the voters spontaneously express a view on AS or me, and in the absence of clear national preferences it's often quoted as decisive. I assume the same sort of "politics as duel" scenario is being played out in the other 20 or so retread seats.
I was amused to see a Liberal posting as a Conservative from Yeovil on here.Fyshe could win Yeovil for the Tories.The posting which mentioned gay marriage made no sense in view of Laws being gay.
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
Leading to the Notting Hill dinner party focus group fallacy.
Likewise his knowledge of the south-east generally is far too 'Chipping Norton' with a disdain for 'Clacton'.
Conservative majorities are won neither in Notting Hill nor in Chipping Norton.
"I love public service. It’s what I care about. It’s a vocation."
I wonder what he said when he was at Carlton? Sounds like a footballer who loves his club until he doesn't
As we see at the end of the film.
I was passing on an anecdote from an elderly relation in that part of the world. Dismiss it if you want but its the truth.
The post was:
Yes, just because people disagree with gay marriage dosen't mean that they despise and hate gay people. I know the left think otherwise, but most people do treat other people as individuals and judge them on their whole character not just one part of it.
The tories will learn at this election that a good chunk of voters voted for them up until 2010 because they saw them as the only hope for defending Judeo - Christian values against secularists and social-secularists. Thats gone now. Personally I would have prefered to see such people vote UKIP instead but such people tend to regard them as a bit boorish when compared with a constituency MP with a very good local record.
It is a Tory stronghold so may be different elsewhere in the country. Coming from the private sector where the industry I worked in was fiercely pro-Tory this experience has come as a big suprise.
Clear as mud.
"many Germans say they’ve lost faith in Greece. According to the ZDF poll, 82% of respondents doubt that Greece will honour its agreed budget cuts and reforms, while only 14% trust that it will follow through. The poll was conducted March 10-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points."
Then Schauble is reported as saying that he doesn't know what to do with Greece now, that the latest Greek T-bill auction has destroyed all confidence as there were no foreign buyers, and that no-one can explain to him how the Greek ideas could work:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-16/germany-slams-greece-new-government-has-destroyed-all-trust-had-been-rebuilt
Yeah thats bollox of course just like your post on a different sport with same outcome. Keep in mind on both rarely to the captors take the captive home as food. The only difference is one is favoured more by your people so that's ok.
PS. Never really like fox hunting but I dislike selective laws even more.
Populus and Opinium have changed their weightings, making comparisons with last year harder.
But, the frequency of Conservative leads is increasing. A Conservative lead is now as likely as a Labour one.
Dead men shuffling.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
Since we disagree, and this is PB, evens? I was thinking £50 or so, but happy to stick to an amount you are comfortable with.
It's probably a more likely loss than Cambridge for example.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/mar/16/tories-1m-inheritance-tax-giveaway-sensitive-papers-wealthier-households