From my reading of the forecast models and the punters, the punters are almost universally self selecting Peter Kellner's 36/31post budget love in prediction and the election forecast model. The election forecast model is starting to converge and creating a squeaky bum moment for Tory punters with only a 10 seat differential in favour of the Tories. UkElect is as good as a toss of a coin.
I think through all this Mike has got it right- Tories more votes and Labour more seats. I think Cameron has made a major mistake ducking the debates, and the attempts by the right wing press to big up the budget will back fire.
Cameron may well rue the opportunity of a one to one with Miliband a week before the election to change the momentum of a negative campaign.
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
The budget
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
If I remember correctly, the Lib Dem poll ratings in 2010 which led to the spreads putting them at 80-90 seats was based on a young demographic which in the end failed to show up for polling day. Now the Lib Dems do not attract this vote, can we presume it has gone Labour/Green. I wonder how soft this is and whether Labour's vote will not live up to its poll rating.
Canvassing anecdote alert, found our strongest section of Labour vote at the weekend, all public sector professionals. The WWC seem to be melting away from Labour though.
I agree that public sector professionals are the bedrock Labour vote, but the WWC vote is harder to pin down as their floating voters tend to be less engaged and decide later if at all.
The personal vote factor is pretty big in my patch - about a third of the voters spontaneously express a view on AS or me, and in the absence of clear national preferences it's often quoted as decisive. I assume the same sort of "politics as duel" scenario is being played out in the other 20 or so retread seats.
Where I work (public sector) there is a lot of vocal support for the Tories and UKIP. Several people having openly stated they pray Labour do not win the GE. I despise discussing politics at work so try to avoid it where possible.
It is a Tory stronghold so may be different elsewhere in the country. Coming from the private sector where the industry I worked in was fiercely pro-Tory this experience has come as a big suprise.
In my NHS workplace there is general apathy about politics, which perhaps in itself shows what a poor weapon the NHS is. We are making progress, though of course there are strains.
I did see a kipper in full regalia in outpatients last week. A distinguished looking 60 something wearing a dark blazer, and striped tie in the kipper colours with matching yellow shirt. He had accessorised with a ukip lapel badge.
The Gujerati receptionist checked him in, the Portuguese Nurse called him through for the Greek Doctor to see. It was all very professional on both sides, but it did rather remind me of "the Life and Death of Colonel Blimp", but perhaps I am reading too much into a momentary encounter.
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
The budget
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
It will get fawning coverage in the media no matter what, we can be sure of that.
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
The budget
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
He's not a sure thing by any means though of course - the omnishamble budget? Another of those might be gamechanging.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
If I remember correctly, the Lib Dem poll ratings in 2010 which led to the spreads putting them at 80-90 seats was based on a young demographic which in the end failed to show up for polling day. Now the Lib Dems do not attract this vote, can we presume it has gone Labour/Green. I wonder how soft this is and whether Labour's vote will not live up to its poll rating.
Canvassing anecdote alert, found our strongest section of Labour vote at the weekend, all public sector professionals. The WWC seem to be melting away from Labour though.
I agree that public sector professionals are the bedrock Labour vote, but the WWC vote is harder to pin down as their floating voters tend to be less engaged and decide later if at all.
The personal vote factor is pretty big in my patch - about a third of the voters spontaneously express a view on AS or me, and in the absence of clear national preferences it's often quoted as decisive. I assume the same sort of "politics as duel" scenario is being played out in the other 20 or so retread seats.
Where I work (public sector) there is a lot of vocal support for the Tories and UKIP. Several people having openly stated they pray Labour do not win the GE. I despise discussing politics at work so try to avoid it where possible.
It is a Tory stronghold so may be different elsewhere in the country. Coming from the private sector where the industry I worked in was fiercely pro-Tory this experience has come as a big suprise.
In my NHS workplace there is general apathy about politics, which perhaps in itself shows what a poor weapon the NHS is. We are making progress, though of course there are strains.
I did see a kipper in full regalia in outpatients last week. A distinguished looking 60 something wearing a dark blazer, and striped tie in the kipper colours with matching yellow shirt. He had accessorised with a ukip lapel badge.
The Gujerati receptionist checked him in, the Portuguese Nurse called him through for the Greek Doctor to see. It was all very professional on both sides, but it did rather remind me of "the Life and Death of Colonel Blimp", but perhaps I am reading too much into a momentary encounter.
In the managerial side up here in the North it's still very much left all the way.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
At least Cameron can indulge in his beloved hunting once again when he is no longer PM. I was amused to see a Liberal posting as a Conservative from Yeovil on here.Fyshe could win Yeovil for the Tories.The posting which mentioned gay marriage made no sense in view of Laws being gay. Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
What are your views on the mainly working class sport of fishing and having dragged the poor fish out of its natural environment, suffering through inability to work it's gills correctly, stressed and dazed with a barbed steel hook locked in its throat it's subsequently manhandled, hook ripped out and thrown back in to suffer a similar fate. All over again.
Yeah thats bollox of course just like your post on a different sport with same outcome. Keep in mind on both rarely to the captors take the captive home as food. The only difference is one is favoured more by your people so that's ok.
PS. Never really like fox hunting but I dislike selective laws even more.
Suspect it's unlikely that you'll get a reasoned response to that post.
Some predictions 1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers. 2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ; a).It's the economy stupid. b) Returning UKIP vote. c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign 3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats. 4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
I suspect it reduces the number of Con to UKIP switchers.
George's 2007 IHT policy really did change the political narrative.
It was a policy the activists could sell on the door step.
The cynical voter may ask why it wasn't done this Parliament, given the promise in 2007. I guess it was before the crash etc. but still, it sounds similar to an old promise.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
Some predictions 1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers. 2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ; a).It's the economy stupid. b) Returning UKIP vote. c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign 3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats. 4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comrade
Very positive 52% likeability rating for Labour, must be the best portent.
It might be - it is certainly very encouraging for the, particularly as Ed M's ratings continue to suffer for the moment at the very least - but that does not mean it must be.
As it is, in a tight race, which it appears this will be, and with Labour more likely to get more seats off the same level of vote (pending how bad Scotland gets), that more people like Labour may be that little bit extra that secures it for them. The Tories, by comparison, really need Cameron's rating advantage to lead to a polling advantage just to get to national vote share parity. I cannot see what else might boost them that little bit more to get most seats.
The budget
That's the hope. Can't see it, especially as it will no doubt be a bunch of gimmicks, promises notwithstanding. But I've been wrong before.
No one should underestimate George Osborne's ability to produce a gamechanger
It will get fawning coverage in the media no matter what, we can be sure of that.
What makes you say that? In the past the press have ignored the actual content and conducting real analysis in favour of wibbling on about pasties.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
Before people get carried away with some journalists and so called experts desperate wish for a Labour victory at any cost, as regulars say the trend is your friend.
Over the past 9 months ICM has gone from Labour leads of 7 to Tory leads of 1 and 4 Populus has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and tied Survation with the exception of January's Tory lead maintains Labour 4 to 6 ahead ComRes has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 7 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2 Opinium has gone from Labour leads of 6 to between Labour leads of 2 and Tory leads of 2 YouGov has gone from Labour leads of 5 and 6 to Tory leads of between 1 and 4 in 6 out of the last 10 polls with 2 tied and 2 Labour leads Ashcroft has gone from Labour leads of 6 and 9 to Tory leads of 2 to 4 IpsosMori has edged down from Labour leads of 3 to 1 with a couple of 3 point Tory leads at the end of last year. TNS remains stuck on Labour leads of 7
The Ashcroft marginal polls which in some cases are now 9 months old showed Labour taking its 1st 19 Tory targets and in 10 of them with a notional lead of less than 10%
He then showed then taking the next 7 with notional leads in 5 of them of under 10%
He showed them taking more than another 13 and among that 13 were more Tory holds than losses.
So Ashcroft showed Labour winning no more than 40 seats before hitting the Tory firewall of holds. Those 40 seats are not consecutive because there are 13 Tory holds, starting with Pudsey at No 22.
So at best Labour MIGHT on a good night win as many seats from the Tories as it is expected to lose to the SNP. Given that half those potential 40 Labour gains were showing leads of under 10%, the chances are that Labour must realistically be looking at a net loss of seats, depending on how many it can win from the Liberals.
But, the frequency of Conservative leads is increasing. A Conservative lead is now as likely as a Labour one.
Yeah thats notable.
Budgets taken on major importance. If tories come through 5% up then could be the game changer
From my reading of the forecast models and the punters, the punters are almost universally self selecting Peter Kellner's 36/31post budget love in prediction and the election forecast model. The election forecast model is starting to converge and creating a squeaky bum moment for Tory punters with only a 10 seat differential in favour of the Tories. UkElect is as good as a toss of a coin.
I think through all this Mike has got it right- Tories more votes and Labour more seats. I think Cameron has made a major mistake ducking the debates, and the attempts by the right wing press to big up the budget will back fire.
Cameron may well rue the opportunity of a one to one with Miliband a week before the election to change the momentum of a negative campaign.
I think Labour are looking at a maximum of 280 seats; the Tories a minimum of 270 seats.
The Lib Dems will be between 16 and 34 seats. The SNP between 32 and 48 seats.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
Million pound houses do not often pay much inheritance tax at present. Just ask the Milibands.
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.
Why you've said it yourself it doesn't raise much tax.
Neither did the 50p tax rate, that labour had in place for four to six weeks. But by lowering it to 45p labour presented it as a tax cut for millionaires, despite it been higher than the thirteen years they were in office.
The inheritance tax thing was a gold star because the thresholds hadnt keep in line with house price increases, making many people who wouldnt see themselves as rich bumping along at the rate. The major injustice has been undone though. To push up the thresholds now would not be a particularly wise act.
How about a tax break for companies that pay the living wage? Maybe upping the employee NI liabilities to encourage it.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
The obvious gambit to me is either to increase the basic allowance, or reduce employee's national insurance. Yougov suggests either would be very popular.
Interesting that a 'government source' calls the inheritance tax cut regressive. I wonder if we will see a Lib Dem policy leaked in the coming days that will be similarly welcome to its core vote while controversial elsewhere
From my reading of the forecast models and the punters, the punters are almost universally self selecting Peter Kellner's 36/31post budget love in prediction and the election forecast model. The election forecast model is starting to converge and creating a squeaky bum moment for Tory punters with only a 10 seat differential in favour of the Tories. UkElect is as good as a toss of a coin.
I think through all this Mike has got it right- Tories more votes and Labour more seats. I think Cameron has made a major mistake ducking the debates, and the attempts by the right wing press to big up the budget will back fire.
Cameron may well rue the opportunity of a one to one with Miliband a week before the election to change the momentum of a negative campaign.
Some predictions 1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers. 2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ; a).It's the economy stupid. b) Returning UKIP vote. c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign 3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats. 4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comrade
Some predictions 1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers. 2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ; a).It's the economy stupid. b) Returning UKIP vote. c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign 3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats. 4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comrade
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
The obvious gambit to me is either to increase the basic allowance, or reduce employee's national insurance. Yougov suggests either would be very popular.
I'm not sure. That's been happening (the basic allowance increase) all throughout this parliament, without much effect on the Tory vote share.
Besides which, for both theatrical and tactical reasons, Osborne will want a "big bang" announcement to capture the media narrative, and put Labour on the back foot.
Some predictions 1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers. 2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ; a).It's the economy stupid. b) Returning UKIP vote. c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign 3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats. 4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comrade
9-2 current odds.
Poor odds.
Agreed. Though if you do think the Tories will do well then, as has been the case for a while, just backing individual seats is great value. Their top 20 target seats have loads of 8/1 or longer available.
George Osborne has drawn up plans that would allow parents to pass a main property worth up to £1m to their children without paying any inheritance tax, according to Treasury papers leaked ahead of Wednesday’s budget.
The proposed measure would also reduce the inheritance tax bill on properties worth up to £2m by £140,000 and the Treasury analysis concludes that the scheme would “most likely benefit high income and wealthier households”.
After the GE I am certain that You Gov will conduct an enquiry as to why its polling is up and down like a tart's knickers. Be happy if this poll gives you comfort.. it is about as wrong as all those with the Tories in the lead.
Some predictions 1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers. 2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ; a).It's the economy stupid. b) Returning UKIP vote. c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign 3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats. 4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
Rogerh- if you think the Tories will win a majority make there is a whole load of cash for you to win. Help yourself comrade
9-2 current odds.
Poor odds.
Agreed. Though if you do think the Tories will do well then, as has been the case for a while, just backing individual seats is great value. Their top 20 target seats have loads of 8/1 or longer available.
Tories can lose North Warwickshire and get a majority
Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
Stonch's.
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...
Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country.George, the great pretender, would like you to believe that he can pull a cost free surprise on Wednesday but it will not be possible.He may raise the inheritance tax threshold to 1 million but this will please those that have enough already.It will not affect the cost of living for the average person.
Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country..
He had failed on much of what he promised, for sure. I don't like that, but the opposition can't criticise the amount of borrowing as they would have borrowed about the same, so they can only say they would have spent better, which is harder to make stick given governments of any colour are pretty crappy when it comes to spending. One reason I foresee not so much of an impact from the budget - although we know there will be gimmicks, I think positive or negative effects from them will not be as great as sometimes has happened these past 5 years.
Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
Stonch's.
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.
I have a May 11th deadline (yes, really!) and will not be able to make it.
Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
Stonch's.
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.
We should definitely get details of this fixed soonish, so we can start getting a rough feel for numbers. Personally am looking forward to it hugely, if it can go ahead.
It may well be a great film, I do not for a moment doubt that. But its plot - grouchy selfish carer, nurse, teacher, nanny, housekeeper, prospective son/daughter-in-law, weirdo in off the street; odd couples etc who finds, redeems him/herself and transforms everyone else's lives - is hardly original
Have you seen it? Don't be put off by a summary of the plot, it completely transcends that. It's a must-see IMO - and it's absolutely hilarious as well, which is astonishing given the subject-matter.
Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
Stonch's.
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.
I am sorely tempted, having booked Friday 8th off. Is it an all nighter? Or will accommodation be required?
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
I still think the Conservatives are ahead by 0.5% or so maybe.
Level on Mondays.
Looks like UNCROSSOVER to me
No, both sides here are putting patterns in stuff that doesn't exist. Four Labour leads, Four Tory leads in a row. I honestly think the Conservatives are an inch ahead though. But it is just an inch.
Tomorrow, at The Shooting Star, I will bore everybody on why I think we cannot rely on the polls this time round to give tangible clues how the GE will turn out. OGH is right on one thing , GE night is going to be full of surprises.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
Stonch's.
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.
I am sorely tempted, having booked Friday 8th off. Is it an all nighter? Or will accommodation be required?
Well I'm sincerely hoping it'll be an all nighter. Not planning on booking accomodation.
The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
Why the bad mood?
because I don't like Nick Palmers politics. Its not bad mood is a question of someone who licked Brown's bootlaces all the way thro, denied anything was going on in the Brown administation whilst he MUST have known it wasn't true.. and this from someone who famously said he never posted anything that wasn't true on PB.
Oh and I haven't got past the smears he posted on here at 2010 GE
PB might be a new audience but I haven't forgotten.
I'd have thought Clegg or Clegg's people attacking an inevitable leadership candidate post May would be very good for that candidate. Even those who like and/or are closely aligned with Clegg's views and politics would wish to avoid being seen as the continuity candidate, as the party's fortunes demand a transformative leader (or one who can attempt to present themselves as such).
Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country.George, the great pretender, would like you to believe that he can pull a cost free surprise on Wednesday but it will not be possible.He may raise the inheritance tax threshold to 1 million but this will please those that have enough already.It will not affect the cost of living for the average person.
How dare he not clear the mess left to him quickly enough. A disgrace. An outrage.
What was it the PM said about Miliband: "arsonist who goes around setting fire after fire then complains that the fire brigade aren't putting the fires out fast enough"
I'd have thought Clegg or Clegg's people attacking an inevitable leadership candidate post May would be very good for that candidate. Even those who like and/or are closely aligned with Clegg's views and politics would wish to avoid being seen as the continuity candidate, as the party's fortunes demand a transformative leader (or one who can attempt to present themselves as such).
Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.
So far David Icke is right about everything bar the lizards?
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
Why the bad mood?
because I don't like Nick Palmers politics. Its not bad mood is a question of someone who licked Brown's bootlaces all the way thro, denied anything was going on in the Brown administation whilst he MUST have known it wasn't true.. and this from someone who famously said he never posted anything that wasn't true on PB.
Oh and I haven't got past the smears he posted on here at 2010 GE
PB might be a new audience but I haven't forgotten.
The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
Other things: 1) How much of an impact will individual registration have? 2) How much of an impact will the unredistributed boundaries have?
Rather like the Domesday Clock, Labour and the Tories both need for time. Indeed on present polling the Tories will be frustrated they can't knock Miliband for a majority, Labour that they can't beat "cuts for fun" Tories, the Lib Dems shellshocked, the Greens without a break-through and UKIP clutching a handful of seats but no chance of government. Only the SNP will be pleased, but they'll know the battle is still to come...
Palmer only does it when there is a poll in Labour's favour..
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
Why the bad mood?
because I don't like Nick Palmers politics. Its not bad mood is a question of someone who licked Brown's bootlaces all the way thro, denied anything was going on in the Brown administation whilst he MUST have known it wasn't true.. and this from someone who famously said he never posted anything that wasn't true on PB.
Oh and I haven't got past the smears he posted on here at 2010 GE
PB might be a new audience but I haven't forgotten.
Oh right glad your not in a bad mood
I.m not, I am listening to one of the greatest tenors I have ever heard. Andrea Bocelli.. an absolute master.
The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
The other factor in England will be how the LDs break for the other parties. Leeds NW is an interesting one. Apparently one of the highest student votes, so surely going to be a big drop, but to whom? And have the Tories finally chosen a candidate?
Osborne faces a tough day on Wednesday.The economy has underperformed and government borrowing is still 90bn and not the 37bn predicted by Osborne.When factors are considered such as economic growth, Britain still has a higher structural budget deficit than any Eurozone country.George, the great pretender, would like you to believe that he can pull a cost free surprise on Wednesday but it will not be possible.He may raise the inheritance tax threshold to 1 million but this will please those that have enough already.It will not affect the cost of living for the average person.
What was it the PM said about Miliband: "arsonist who goes around setting fire after fire then complains that the fire brigade aren't putting the fires out fast enough"
I recall Mitch McConnell's opponent in Kentucky used the same type of line, must be part of the political lexicon I guess.
The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
Other things: 1) How much of an impact will individual registration have? 2) How much of an impact will the unredistributed boundaries have?
I think individual registration will impact LAB adversely most due to its disproportionate age distribution.
The Monday/latter part of the week thing is us all seeing too many polls.
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
Other things: 1) How much of an impact will individual registration have? 2) How much of an impact will the unredistributed boundaries have?
1) Not that much imo - might make a bit of difference in big University seats but I reckon the ones not registered wouldn't have voted previously. Could hurt the Greens the most as they are strong in 18-24 age group.
2) Well they help Labour, but Labour have lost ~ 1 - 1.5% of the vote and 4-7% of the seats in Scotland so that balances the skew back to more or less zero. Tory 1st time incumbency helps a bit too. Predicting seats on vote share is REALLY hard this time round - particularly in England (No 84% Yes correlation to go off here) (Scotland is actually easier !)
Cyril Smith cover up allegations on newsnight now. Slowly but surely this is lapping ever more closely to the royal family, the bbc and right to the top of Westminster. As it absolutely deserves to.
So far David Icke is right about everything bar the lizards?
Go through all of the alternative media on this like I did for a fortnight and come to your own conclusions. The msm with d notices and the like are effectively not a free press any longer sadly.
Comments
I think through all this Mike has got it right- Tories more votes and Labour more seats. I think Cameron has made a major mistake ducking the debates, and the attempts by the right wing press to big up the budget will back fire.
Cameron may well rue the opportunity of a one to one with Miliband a week before the election to change the momentum of a negative campaign.
I did see a kipper in full regalia in outpatients last week. A distinguished looking 60 something wearing a dark blazer, and striped tie in the kipper colours with matching yellow shirt. He had accessorised with a ukip lapel badge.
The Gujerati receptionist checked him in, the Portuguese Nurse called him through for the Greek Doctor to see. It was all very professional on both sides, but it did rather remind me of "the Life and Death of Colonel Blimp", but perhaps I am reading too much into a momentary encounter.
George's 2007 IHT policy really did change the political narrative.
It was a policy the activists could sell on the door step.
1.UNS for England and Wales and separately for Scotland will be the best method of predicting party seat numbers.
2.The Tories have the most upside potential in polling share during the rest of the campaign.Three main reasons ;
a).It's the economy stupid.
b) Returning UKIP vote.
c) A highly professional and effective air and ground campaign
3.The increase in Tory share will lead to Tories having most votes and most seats.
4. The numbers of seats will be high enough to give them an overall majority.
If George is stupid enough to do this then it would be a new omnishambles.
Suggestions on a postcard, please.
Budgets taken on major importance. If tories come through 5% up then could be the game changer
The Lib Dems will be between 16 and 34 seats. The SNP between 32 and 48 seats.
I have no idea about UKIP.
I don't think George is that stupid. I think he is lobbing a few red herrings about so that Ed gets the budget response all wrong.
More likely a tax cut on beer and whisky, and even petrol. Something that would wrongfoot Labour.
The inheritance tax thing was a gold star because the thresholds hadnt keep in line with house price increases, making many people who wouldnt see themselves as rich bumping along at the rate. The major injustice has been undone though. To push up the thresholds now would not be a particularly wise act.
How about a tax break for companies that pay the living wage? Maybe upping the employee NI liabilities to encourage it.
How about a tax break for companies that pay the living wage? Maybe upping the employee NI liabilities threshold to encourage it?
Besides which, for both theatrical and tactical reasons, Osborne will want a "big bang" announcement to capture the media narrative, and put Labour on the back foot.
It's his style.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/11476279/Budget-2015-George-Osborne-to-announce-6billion-boost-to-UKs-coffers.html
It could be the old paper from the Autumn, which the Lib Dems have leaked. Or it could be the Tories leaking it for the reasons you cite.
Shares in Tramadol soar!
Basiliscious!
Saying that, I do see a bit of reverse-swingback:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by two: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%
EICIPM. On a Monday too
https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/577595119085449216
It may not be entirely serious...
Be happy if this poll gives you comfort.. it is about as wrong as all those with the Tories in the lead.
Still doesn't lead me to think anything other than the two main parties are at parity.
Are we PBers going to have a shindig that night, so we can cry on each others shoulders? And if so where?
I'll be crying into my beer if Scottish Labour come back like a phoenix from the flames.
LARGER is Angus R
Looks like UNCROSSOVER to me
Yours truly will be editing PB on General Election night, and well, I'm going to need a decent internet connection.
If NPXMP is still there, did you max out on your generous food allowance before the expenses scandal hit or did you provide expenses receipts for every penny you spent?? Just asking ... tick tock...
http://www.libdemvoice.org/source-close-to-nick-clegg-needs-to-stop-now-45035.html
We are failing to see the wood for the trees, and the trees are more or less level. This GE is going to come to whether or not Labour can get the vote out.
Oh and I haven't got past the smears he posted on here at 2010 GE
PB might be a new audience but I haven't forgotten.
What was it the PM said about Miliband:
"arsonist who goes around setting fire after fire then complains that the fire brigade aren't putting the fires out fast enough"
1) How much of an impact will individual registration have?
2) How much of an impact will the unredistributed boundaries have?
Tis a serious threat to EICIPM
2) Well they help Labour, but Labour have lost ~ 1 - 1.5% of the vote and 4-7% of the seats in Scotland so that balances the skew back to more or less zero. Tory 1st time incumbency helps a bit too. Predicting seats on vote share is REALLY hard this time round - particularly in England (No 84% Yes correlation to go off here) (Scotland is actually easier !)
Edit- I defer to the Nabavi down thread!