it predicts a rise in household borrowing of over £500bn between 2015 and 2020.
IMO very unlikely to happen but the OBN has to forecast that in order for its prediction of a rapid fall in government borrowing to occur.
Whether it is household or government borrowing the fundamental economic strategy of Brown, Osborne and Balls remains the same ie borrow to consume.
Perhaps we should cut the crap.
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume.
Hardly a big surprise when we have anyone to the left of Nick Clegg whining about how drastic the cuts have been, when we are actually spending more on public spending, even in real terms, than we were five years ago. As has been commented by several politicians, they know what to do, they just don't know how to do it and win the election. The British public whine and bitch and cry because they have been busy having a party on someone else's credit card and the bill just dropped through the door.
When, for example Cameron (supported by Labour and Libdems in Westminster) ring fences International Aid personally and that will cost likely in excess of £60 billion over the next government that's unfair on voters. Its more the case that the government don't necessarily want to make the same cuts as many voters want.
The problem is the 0.7% is an obligation taken on by all the worlds richest countries in a declaration made at the UN in 1970. (UN General Assembly Resolution, 1970)
“In recognition of the special importance of the role that can be fulfilled only by official development assistance, a major part of financial resource transfers to the developing countries should be provided in the form of official development assistance. Each economically advanced country will progressively increase its official development assistance to the developing countries and will exert its best efforts to reach a minimum net amount of 0.7 percent of its gross national product at market prices by the middle of the decade.”
Not doing it would be on par with resiling from a treaty or other internationally controversial actions.
it predicts a rise in household borrowing of over £500bn between 2015 and 2020.
IMO very unlikely to happen but the OBN has to forecast that in order for its prediction of a rapid fall in government borrowing to occur.
Whether it is household or government borrowing the fundamental economic strategy of Brown, Osborne and Balls remains the same ie borrow to consume.
Perhaps we should cut the crap.
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
The mistakes this government made was to give all the big talk on 'austerity' and "we're all in this together" but still want to borrow to fund all its pet projects - Overseas Aid, middle eastern warmongering, HS2, pensioner bonds etc.
And then to lie about "paying down Britain's debts".
The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume.
Hardly a big surprise when we have anyone to the left of Nick Clegg whining about how drastic the cuts have been, when we are actually spending more on public spending, even in real terms, than we were five years ago. As has been commented by several politicians, they know what to do, they just don't know how to do it and win the election. The British public whine and bitch and cry because they have been busy having a party on someone else's credit card and the bill just dropped through the door.
When, for example Cameron (supported by Labour and Libdems in Westminster) ring fences International Aid personally and that will cost likely in excess of £60 billion over the next government that's unfair on voters. Its more the case that the government don't necessarily want to make the same cuts as many voters want.
The problem is the 0.7% is an obligation taken on by all the worlds richest countries in a declaration made at the UN in 1970. (UN General Assembly Resolution, 1970)
“In recognition of the special importance of the role that can be fulfilled only by official development assistance, a major part of financial resource transfers to the developing countries should be provided in the form of official development assistance. Each economically advanced country will progressively increase its official development assistance to the developing countries and will exert its best efforts to reach a minimum net amount of 0.7 percent of its gross national product at market prices by the middle of the decade.”
Not doing it would be on par with resiling from a treaty or other internationally controversial actions.
Not doing it would be on a par with ignoring the UN GA declarations that we should do something about the Falklands.
@Indigo All our borrowing has been pissed against the wall for many years, and borrowing doesn't actually fall. What you need to do to cover this fact is to grow our economy, or, you can choose to inflate it, and hope no one notices. The problem with the latter is that people are getting better and better at noticing this, and it means that "corrections" happen far more frequently.
I would be highly surprised if our economy grows enough, we are on the wrong side of the productivity curve compared to most of the developing world, who are both more productive and cheaper than us. We used to have a technology advantage, but largely we now don't (just consider where all the cutting edge Apple gear is made, and 90% of the laptops in the world).
Globalisation was always going to have winners and losers, the third world is a winner, standards of living there are improving by the day, that is because money and work is moving there, and it is moving there from the first world, ie from us.
The only plausible way we are going to match them on productivity is a substantial fall in the standard of our living, our productivity is falling because we are getting culturally lazy and that is almost impossible to change. Education is unlikely to improve, and if Labour get back in power is will get a whole lot worse as the blob take back all the improvements made under Gove.
The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume.
Hardly a big surprise when we have anyone to the left of Nick Clegg whining about how drastic the cuts have been, when we are actually spending more on public spending, even in real terms, than we were five years ago. As has been commented by several politicians, they know what to do, they just don't know how to do it and win the election. The British public whine and bitch and cry because they have been busy having a party on someone else's credit card and the bill just dropped through the door.
When, for example Cameron (supported by Labour and Libdems in Westminster) ring fences International Aid personally and that will cost likely in excess of £60 billion over the next government that's unfair on voters. Its more the case that the government don't necessarily want to make the same cuts as many voters want.
The problem is the 0.7% is an obligation taken on by all the worlds richest countries in a declaration made at the UN in 1970. (UN General Assembly Resolution, 1970)
“In recognition of the special importance of the role that can be fulfilled only by official development assistance, a major part of financial resource transfers to the developing countries should be provided in the form of official development assistance. Each economically advanced country will progressively increase its official development assistance to the developing countries and will exert its best efforts to reach a minimum net amount of 0.7 percent of its gross national product at market prices by the middle of the decade.”
Not doing it would be on par with resiling from a treaty or other internationally controversial actions.
Not doing it would be on a par with ignoring the UN GA declarations that we should do something about the Falklands.
We didn't sign that, we did that Assembly Resolution.
it predicts a rise in household borrowing of over £500bn between 2015 and 2020.
IMO very unlikely to happen but the OBN has to forecast that in order for its prediction of a rapid fall in government borrowing to occur.
Whether it is household or government borrowing the fundamental economic strategy of Brown, Osborne and Balls remains the same ie borrow to consume.
Perhaps we should cut the crap.
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
The mistakes this government made was to give all the big talk on 'austerity' and "we're all in this together" but still want to borrow to fund all its pet projects - Overseas Aid, middle eastern warmongering, HS2, pensioner bonds etc.
And then to lie about "paying down Britain's debts".
That's about £15bn, where is the rest coming from ?
Are you making the assumption that our military cost us nothing to run when it isn't in the middle east ? They still get paid, still burn diesel, and still shoot things.
it predicts a rise in household borrowing of over £500bn between 2015 and 2020.
IMO very unlikely to happen but the OBN has to forecast that in order for its prediction of a rapid fall in government borrowing to occur.
Whether it is household or government borrowing the fundamental economic strategy of Brown, Osborne and Balls remains the same ie borrow to consume.
Perhaps we should cut the crap.
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
The mistakes this government made was to give all the big talk on 'austerity' and "we're all in this together" but still want to borrow to fund all its pet projects - Overseas Aid, middle eastern warmongering, HS2, pensioner bonds etc.
And then to lie about "paying down Britain's debts".
They are paying down Britians debts.. I just got paid out today for my war loan from WW2 Thanks George.
London may be of limited use as a comparison for the UK as a whole, given whites are not (yet) a minority UK-wide. Plus, there's no Plaid/SNP in London.
There's no Plaid/SNP in 532 of the English seats where CON had 11.4% vote lead on same boundaries in 2010.
Mr. Smithson, so there are in 80 odd seats, and my point about London's different racial complexion also stacks up. Thankfully, there's only one Tower Hamlets (although Bradford appears to be another black spot).
The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume.
Hardly a big surprise when we have anyone to the left of Nick Clegg whining about how drastic the cuts have been, when we are actually spending more on public spending, even in real terms, than we were five years ago. As has been commented by several politicians, they know what to do, they just don't know how to do it and win the election. The British public whine and bitch and cry because they have been busy having a party on someone else's credit card and the bill just dropped through the door.
When, for example Cameron (supported by Labour and Libdems in Westminster) ring fences International Aid personally and that will cost likely in excess of £60 billion over the next government that's unfair on voters. Its more the case that the government don't necessarily want to make the same cuts as many voters want.
The problem is the 0.7% is an obligation taken on by all the worlds richest countries in a declaration made at the UN in 1970. (UN General Assembly Resolution, 1970)
“In recognition of the special importance of the role that can be fulfilled only by official development assistance, a major part of financial resource transfers to the developing countries should be provided in the form of official development assistance. Each economically advanced country will progressively increase its official development assistance to the developing countries and will exert its best efforts to reach a minimum net amount of 0.7 percent of its gross national product at market prices by the middle of the decade.”
Not doing it would be on par with resiling from a treaty or other internationally controversial actions.
When was the first time the UK fulfilled this target. 1970 or 2011?
How many other countries are actually paying 0.7%? (hint most of the EU haven't yet even got plans to achieve it)
Note the phrasing. It talks of 'best efforts' and Cameron decides to achieve it for the first time during the worst financial crisis in 80 years.Borrowing money as this government has just to give away to other countries is not 'best efforts' it is just lunacy. Cameron's sacred cow is nothing more than self indulgent profligacy
And I see the Government commitment to international agreements doesn't yet extend to definitively confirming our agreement with NATO that we will keep our defence spending at 2.0% of GDP. Funny how some agreements must be met but others can be casually tossed away.......
Dave is scoring more own goals than even Jamie Carragher managed at the minute
The announcement of 500 new free schools is yet another lurch to the right from the party that only got into power at all by pretending to be Compassionate Conservatives
Having killed off Dr Frankenstein Gove in a seeming understanding of how hated these unwanted schools full of frauds, extremists and unqualified teachers were ..Dave goes and promises to build 500 more of his monsters to head shaking all round from the education profession and most parents
No wonder the I is reporting of civil war in the Tory party today on its front page
Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
@Indigo All our borrowing has been pissed against the wall for many years, and borrowing doesn't actually fall. What you need to do to cover this fact is to grow our economy, or, you can choose to inflate it, and hope no one notices. The problem with the latter is that people are getting better and better at noticing this, and it means that "corrections" happen far more frequently.
I would be highly surprised if our economy grows enough, we are on the wrong side of the productivity curve compared to most of the developing world, who are both more productive and cheaper than us. We used to have a technology advantage, but largely we now don't (just consider where all the cutting edge Apple gear is made, and 90% of the laptops in the world).
Globalisation was always going to have winners and losers, the third world is a winner, standards of living there are improving by the day, that is because money and work is moving there, and it is moving there from the first world, ie from us.
The only plausible way we are going to match them on productivity is a substantial fall in the standard of our living, our productivity is falling because we are getting culturally lazy and that is almost impossible to change. Education is unlikely to improve, and if Labour get back in power is will get a whole lot worse as the blob take back all the improvements made under Gove.
Very fair comment. Unfortunately Balls and Co are too thick and full of socialist ideology to realise that the only way for the UK to prosper is to lead on technology. However, Balls shrieks at any form of education that is not under local authority control where they can impose their LCD for all - ideology rules instead of the best education for each child according to their talents. We know what happens under Labour LA control e.g Nottingham.
Wales (Labour) has just woken up after over 15 years to find out that their teacher training is defective: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-31770118. What hope do our children have for a better future under the education planned for them by the Eds - only a race to the bottom.
Ed Miliband may well be, at least according to some polls, more unpopular than David Cameron, the Tory Prime Minister – a rare and humiliating achievement for a UK Labour leader in Scotland
it predicts a rise in household borrowing of over £500bn between 2015 and 2020.
IMO very unlikely to happen but the OBN has to forecast that in order for its prediction of a rapid fall in government borrowing to occur.
Whether it is household or government borrowing the fundamental economic strategy of Brown, Osborne and Balls remains the same ie borrow to consume.
Perhaps we should cut the crap.
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
The mistakes this government made was to give all the big talk on 'austerity' and "we're all in this together" but still want to borrow to fund all its pet projects - Overseas Aid, middle eastern warmongering, HS2, pensioner bonds etc.
And then to lie about "paying down Britain's debts".
They are paying down Britians debts.. I just got paid out today for my war loan from WW2 Thanks George.
No they are not paying down anything. George just borrowed off someone else to pay you off. They are increasing our debts by around £100 billion per year.
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds
Jack I must have missed it but what does APLOMB stand for....?
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
The voting cognoscenti purchase their favourite party (political) pie from everyday retail outlets like Fortnum and Harrods and the sales are evaluated according to the SOAMES political weighting model.
SOAMES - System Of Analysing Mainland Election Support
The eurozone is not viable in its current form, one of the UK's most successful fund managers has warned.
Neil Woodford, who set up his own investment firm last year, said the concept was "fundamentally flawed" and he expected the "stresses and strains" in the area to continue to increase.
"In a very simple sense pretending that Greece was Germany is a fundamental error," he told BBC World News.
UK businesses saw overall costs fall in February for the first time in six years, a survey suggests.
The business trends report from the accountancy and services group BDO said that its inflation index had descended into deflationary territory for the first time since 2009.
BDO credited the fall to the sharp drop in crude oil prices, which have almost halved since June.
It said the fall in prices would enable firms to invest in growth.
"Lower input prices will help entrench the recovery, as consumers gain more spending power, " said BDO partner Peter Hemington.
The report also found both business confidence and companies' hiring intentions remained high, with companies expecting the steady growth in the UK economy to continue into mid-2015.
Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.
This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.
They've been making the argument about cuts, inequality, foodbanks etc for five years.
It's got them next to nowhere.
My take is that the public believes all the arguments that the different political parties put forward. So what arguments are the two big parties putting forward?
Conservative:
Only we have the long term economic plan to set the country right (positive version) Ed Miliband is a gurning muppet who has learned nothing from the last time that Labour bankrupted the country and will bankrupt it again (negative version)
Labour:
Only we understand the social democratic structures that the British people expect in a civilised country (positive version) The Tories are heartless toffs who want to privatise air (negative version)
If the public believe all of these arguments, it seems to me that the Conservatives are marginally better placed than Labour.
Thanks Nick. It is amazing that there are so many SLAB folk completely out of touch with the voters. Even having a Conference for 1,000 activists, rather than spending the day/s out canvassing is a sure sign of their stupidity.
Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
I think that @DavidL - a Scots Tory from Dundee - has indicated that anti-SNP tactical voting might be something he'd do.
In Salmond target Gordon Lord A found 24% of CON voters on 1st question ready to switch to the LDs. in Inverness the figure was 21%.
Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
I think that @DavidL - a Scots Tory from Dundee - has indicated that anti-SNP tactical voting might be something he'd do.
In Salmond target Gordon Lord A found 24% of CON voters on 1st question ready to switch to the LDs. in Inverness the figure was 21%.
And still Danny a mile behind, had another top up Friday with Skybet's ludicrous odds of 1-3 on the SNP.
ONE of the loudest and most controversial Yes supporters in the referendum could be charged with a criminal offence over missing financial papers, the Electoral Commission has said.
The watchdog said that, alongside prosecutors, it was now considering whether to take enforcement action against the Wings Over Scotland website run from Bath by Scots-born Stuart Campbell.
It emerged last month that Wings Over Scotland and four smaller campaigners had failed to report their spending during the referendum.
Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds
Jack I must have missed it but what does APLOMB stand for....?
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
The voting cognoscenti purchase their favourite party (political) pie from everyday retail outlets like Fortnum and Harrods and the sales are evaluated according to the SOAMES political weighting model.
SOAMES - System Of Analysing Mainland Election Support
APLOMB - Accuracy Passes Lame Old Man By?
Given it has an 'L' in it (for Labour) and M (for Miliband) it no doubt offers many amusing possibilities
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
The mistakes this government made was to give all the big talk on 'austerity' and "we're all in this together" but still want to borrow to fund all its pet projects - Overseas Aid, middle eastern warmongering, HS2, pensioner bonds etc.
And then to lie about "paying down Britain's debts".
They are paying down Britians debts.. I just got paid out today for my war loan from WW2 Thanks George.
No they are not paying down anything. George just borrowed off someone else to pay you off. They are increasing our debts by around £100 billion per year.
Any suggestion that the LDs would let the Tories cut the aid budget are frankly fantasy land, with a Conservative Majority possibly.
Choices George had when elected given Brown's £120bn/year structural deficit (simplified edition)
1. The Canada 1994 solution - Cut 30% of public spending, balance the books overnight, basically the government just said it isn't going to fund whole rafts of things at all, rather than just trimming them a bit - not possible, not the slightest chance the LDs would have supported it, and even if they had there would have been riots in the streets.
2. The Current Solution - Try and bring down public spending to the extent that he can get it past the LDs whilst borrowing to fill the gap - that't what he is doing, but the LDs wont let him cut very much, and the public are crying already
3. Continuity Labour - Carry on pissing money against the wall, continue to DOUBLE public spending every ten years (under Brown public spending would now be around £1tn/year, not the 700bn/year it currently is). Popular with the voters so long as the economy doesn't crash, but doesn't even pretend to fix the economy.
ONE of the loudest and most controversial Yes supporters in the referendum could be charged with a criminal offence over missing financial papers, the Electoral Commission has said.
The watchdog said that, alongside prosecutors, it was now considering whether to take enforcement action against the Wings Over Scotland website run from Bath by Scots-born Stuart Campbell.
It emerged last month that Wings Over Scotland and four smaller campaigners had failed to report their spending during the referendum.
The differences between the productivity scenarios in terms of borrowing are far larger than the differences between the parties' plans.
There is a political choice as to which fiscal target to aim for, but how difficult that target is to hit - and how much pain it implies - will depend on the underlying performance of the economy and productivity.
It is 'the economy, stupid' - but not in the way either party wishes to discuss.....
Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
I've seen a comment that only 3 prospective Tory to Lab tactical voters out of, I assume, ca. 1000 sampled could be found in Jim Murphy's seat in the Ashcroft poll - and that is one with a high Tory content. Though when I looked at the data I couldn't confirm this. Might be worth a look by someone else as that is one area where if you believe the likes of the London chatterati (and to be fair, IIRC, some of the more pro_Labour/Union media in Scotland), the Tories should be lapping up Mr Murphy and SLAB as their saviours.
It appears a future Tory goverment is planning to hand over adminstration of the state pension to a private company, in the same was as CAPITA run TV licensing. According to the Financial Times, DWP could lose 30,000 staff who currently handle pensions.
Would this move be accepted by the British public ? I think the Tories should clarify their position ahead of the election, as many people would be worried by such a change.
So if the Tory strategy is to stoke anti Scottish resentment will they go down as the party that lost the union then?
The Union has gone.
The Scots conspicuously feel they are in a different country to the rest of us.
All we are doing is arguing about the terms of the divorce.
Best to get it over with as soon as possible.
Shouty Nats isn't the basis for judging people's opinions. The Nats' demand for more government at the local and regional level is no different than many other parts of the country. What's had it's day isn't the Union but the centralised Westminster model. How long it takes our MPs to understand this is the main issue.
I'm not sure associating Labour with the party of free prescriptions and no tuition fees is as negative as some think. I feel like CCHQ are spending too much time on Twitter among us anoraks.
The rUK public view it as the party that wants to leave the UK and take as much of the family silver as they can grab on the way out the door and is currently giving their people all sorts of jollies at the expense of the rest of the country. The truth of the matter is beside the point, politics is perception.
Exactly: which is why it will be very interesting to see what happens if and when the SNP actually start influencing public policy in rUK, if only by debate and example, in ways which can not so easily be ignored. I think Freggles is more correct than you might feel, though you have a point too.
It appears a future Tory goverment is planning to hand over adminstration of the state pension to a private company, in the same was as CAPITA run TV licensing. According to the Financial Times, DWP could lose 30,000 staff who currently handle pensions.
Would this move be accepted by the British public ? I think the Tories should clarify their position ahead of the election, as many people would be worried by such a change.
Not me - think of the relief to get that many future final salary pensions off the liabilities column.
It appears a future Tory goverment is planning to hand over adminstration of the state pension to a private company, in the same was as CAPITA run TV licensing. According to the Financial Times, DWP could lose 30,000 staff who currently handle pensions.
Would this move be accepted by the British public ? I think the Tories should clarify their position ahead of the election, as many people would be worried by such a change.
Have you read the story in full?
It says
Under Labour, which has proposed lower departmental spending cuts, the loss would be smaller although still substantial, at 20,000 posts, according to senior civil servants.
....At its peak in 2010, when Labour was in power, the department and its associated agencies employed more than 121,000 people.
Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
I've seen a comment that only 3 prospective Tory to Lab tactical voters out of, I assume, ca. 1000 sampled could be found in Jim Murphy's seat in the Ashcroft poll - and that is one with a high Tory content. Though when I looked at the data I couldn't confirm this. Might be worth a look by someone else as that is one area where if you believe the likes of the London chatterati (and to be fair, IIRC, some of the more pro_Labour/Union media in Scotland), the Tories should be lapping up Mr Murphy and SLAB as their saviours.
Why on earth would Scottish Tories help Labour out. The Lib Dems - I can see an argument for it perhaps around the Highlands... particularly with Danny. But Scottish Conservatism will be well served long term by the destruction of Scottish Labour/Lib Dems. I mean if both Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem are mullered on the night then they may well both push to the left of the SNP leaving a gaping hole in what one could consider the natural UK centre ground for the Conservatives to fill. That could long term lead to three or four seats
I think @Easteross is more typical of the average Scots voter on this than @DavidL.
Carnyx, spot on. The East Renfewshire Tories are going all out to recover the seat in the hope the SNP split's Jim Murphy's vote wide open. Each SLAB loss in Scotland is another seat we have a chance of winning back when the SNP bubble finally bursts, inside or outside the UK.
Christ, Populus are already out, TNS still haven't released their data for (what must surely be) last week. The previous TNS online polls were 16th Feb and 2nd Feb.
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
The mistakes this government made was to give all the big talk on 'austerity' and "we're all in this together" but still want to borrow to fund all its pet projects - Overseas Aid, middle eastern warmongering, HS2, pensioner bonds etc.
And then to lie about "paying down Britain's debts".
They are paying down Britians debts.. I just got paid out today for my war loan from WW2 Thanks George.
No they are not paying down anything. George just borrowed off someone else to pay you off. They are increasing our debts by around £100 billion per year.
Any suggestion that the LDs would let the Tories cut the aid budget are frankly fantasy land,
No you cannot hide behind the Libdems regarding Aid and shame on you for not taking responsibility for your party's actions. In 2010 the debate was whether to increase it or not as Cameron proposed (when everything else was either frozen or being cut) not about cutting it. Cameron specifically committed to increase it in real terms and from what I recall it was the only public sector budget that was increased in real terms. It was and still is insanity and had absolutely nothing to do with the Libdems. So do stop spinning that one. You cannot win it. It was rank self indulgence on the Prime Minister's part and a demonstration of his vainglory.
As for the rest don't be so sensitive. I wasn't looking for Tory excuses. One of your colleagues was repeating the tiresome Clegg and Cameron lie that they were paying down the debt. I was just pointing out that such a claim was untrue.
PS You have no idea how weak and impotent Tories sound when they keep blaming other parties for their record in government and in elections. True as it may be it doesn't sound at all convincing and really isn't something Tories should advertise.
PPS Funny how the Tories manage to persuade the Libdems raising VAT (despite the VA bombshell posters during the election) and on tuitions fees and scrapping the 50p tax rate but were incapable of persuading them on other issues. I think the saying goes 'Where there's a will there's a way'.
I thought for a moment it was "Tories foaming at the mouth"!
To be fair, I did wonder how much that piece has been edited - but it is also by Allan (pere) not Alex Massie (fils), of course.
"For the English regard a government dependent on the SNP as undemocratic and an insult to democracy itself." Well, well. The idea that democratically elected SNP MPs are in themselves 'an insult to democracy' rather does knock the basis of the Union to smithereens.
It appears a future Tory goverment is planning to hand over adminstration of the state pension to a private company, in the same was as CAPITA run TV licensing. According to the Financial Times, DWP could lose 30,000 staff who currently handle pensions.
Would this move be accepted by the British public ? I think the Tories should clarify their position ahead of the election, as many people would be worried by such a change.
that's one of my old jobs in the Pension Service.I worked on pension credit uptake.I have probably spoken to Pb Tories as I was viewed as sinister,trying to find out where they had their jewellery hidden etc.Really enjoyable but very low paid.
Carnyx, spot on. The East Renfewshire Tories are going all out to recover the seat in the hope the SNP split's Jim Murphy's vote wide open. Each SLAB loss in Scotland is another seat we have a chance of winning back when the SNP bubble finally bursts, inside or outside the UK.
Were you able to confirm or refute that figure of 3 switchers? It did seem very odd in the light of what is being spouted by the likes of Mr Cochrane at the DT, but not in the context of what you say.
Why on earth would Scottish Tories help Labour out. The Lib Dems - I can see an argument for it perhaps around the Highlands... particularly with Danny. But Scottish Conservatism will be well served long term by the destruction of Scottish Labour/Lib Dems. I mean if both Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem are mullered on the night then they may well both push to the left of the SNP leaving a gaping hole in what one could consider the natural UK centre ground for the Conservatives to fill. That could long term lead to three or four seats
I think @Easteross is more typical of the average Scots voter on this than @DavidL.
Clearly there are some Easterrosses and some DavidLs. The question is how many of each and where are they situated. So far as Scottish Labour are concerned, tactical Tory votes are only really going to be of relevance:
1) where there are actually a fair number of Scottish Conservatives in the constituency 2) where the Conservatives won't think that they have a decent chance of taking the seat themselves 3) where tactical votes might make a difference
If we posit an average swing from Scottish Labour to SNP of 20% or so in No-friendly seats (which seems reasonable, given the most recent constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft), only East Renfrewshire comes close to meeting all three conditions. I suppose that Conservative switchers might make the difference in Glasgow North West and Glenrothes as well, but it's hardly as though there's much to squeeze in either place.
It seems to me that the whole idea is all a bit of a red herring.
Christ, Populus are already out, TNS still haven't released their data for (what must surely be) last week. The previous TNS online polls were 16th Feb and 2nd Feb.
Sunil are you sure this poll even took place. TNS seem to have no obvious sponsor..
Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?
PS how's the job front ?
Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!
Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.
Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.
Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
I've seen a comment that only 3 prospective Tory to Lab tactical voters out of, I assume, ca. 1000 sampled could be found in Jim Murphy's seat in the Ashcroft poll - and that is one with a high Tory content. Though when I looked at the data I couldn't confirm this. Might be worth a look by someone else as that is one area where if you believe the likes of the London chatterati (and to be fair, IIRC, some of the more pro_Labour/Union media in Scotland), the Tories should be lapping up Mr Murphy and SLAB as their saviours.
SLAB has a long-term systemic problem which won't be solved by May.Labour will have to circle the wagons around Paisley to keep the kill rate down to anything like 20.A good ground game at targeted seats can pull some round but in a game of damage limitation some SLAB MPs are dead men/women walking.
Too early to suggest that a defeat here might be the best thing in the medium term ?
We said that in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011
Schofield Report won us two Ashes series.
Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.
Do I not like that.
Geoffrey Boycott - can you hear me... ?
The most painful thing about this is, we in part agreed to reschedule this winter's Ashes series, to last winter, to give us a better chance in the world cup.
Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?
PS how's the job front ?
Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!
Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.
Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.
Best of luck on the job front, sorry to hear about your mother's health.
Too early to suggest that a defeat here might be the best thing in the medium term ?
We said that in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011
Schofield Report won us two Ashes series.
Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.
Do I not like that.
Geoffrey Boycott - can you hear me... ?
The most painful thing about this is, we in part agreed to reschedule this winter's Ashes series, to last winter, to give us a better chance in the world cup.
That turned out well.
Great news is that Root is being rested for the Windies test series.
This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.
Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
I think that @DavidL - a Scots Tory from Dundee - has indicated that anti-SNP tactical voting might be something he'd do.
In Salmond target Gordon Lord A found 24% of CON voters on 1st question ready to switch to the LDs. in Inverness the figure was 21%.
The SNP will win in Dundee at a canter. Both the Tory candidate in Gordon and the Tory candidate in Inverness are campaigning hard, taking teams out canvassing etc. They are not working to see Tory voters vote for a LibDem. Beyond the odd individual there is no history in Scotland of Tories voting tactically to save candidates from other parties. The Tory vote is incredibly evenly spread across the country which is why in 2010 412,000 votes yielded only 1 MP.
Alex Salmond should win Gordon easily. If Danny Alexander holds Inverness, it will be because Drew Hendry's supreme arrogance has lost him votes.
Too early to suggest that a defeat here might be the best thing in the medium term ?
We said that in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011
Schofield Report won us two Ashes series.
Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.
Do I not like that.
Geoffrey Boycott - can you hear me... ?
The most painful thing about this is, we in part agreed to reschedule this winter's Ashes series, to last winter, to give us a better chance in the world cup.
That turned out well.
Great news is that Root is being rested for the Windies test series.
Come off it, it's a MoE movement as have just about all Tory movements since Christmas.
Yes I know..just saying if the Tory PBs are cracking open the bubbly at a poll rating of 32% after 5 months of non stop media Mili bashing and "good" economic news propoganda..they must be even more desperate than.I thought
As the I says senior Tories are in despair at their poll ratings and turning on Crosby for his negative strategy
Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?
PS how's the job front ?
Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!
Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.
Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.
Sorry to hear that divvie, good luck hunting.
My father had Parkinsons so a similar position to your mother, not that easy to manage. I was fortunate in that my brother gave up work to look after him, the most I could help out was giving him a break from care ( he has friends in Glasgow and would go to the Scottish cup final !) . But I don't think he ever regretted doing it and he's now back in work. I suspect given the state of my MiL it'll be my turn in the near future.
I think Damian McBride has become a great political commentator.
His awe of Brown (which I have to ignore) and naughty behaviour in office notwithstanding (and I suspect, even then, he was probably doing what they all do and just got caught), I thought his Power Trip book was brilliant and he has an undeniably enjoyable style of writing.
This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.
The candidates are idiots, Blair is the reason Labour were able to win seats in places like Northamptonshire in the first place.
This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.
Al ****ing Campbell has already been slating these people on Twitter
Comments
When you have a Labour government that leaves power with £120bn going out the door every year more than comes in, your choices are a bit limited, either you borrow to pay while trying to sort the mess out, or you cut spending by 30% on Day 1 and balance the books, no danger of that being unpopular, what with the public getting mutinous about cutting the rate of increase, never mind actually REALLY cutting anything.
Speaking of which, had a UKIP leaflet last week. Still doubt they're in with a shot here.
And then to lie about "paying down Britain's debts".
But, as you say, perception plays a lot.
What happened to the savage cuts ?
Not a coherent attack.
Not doing it would be on a par with ignoring the UN GA declarations that we should do something about the Falklands.
Globalisation was always going to have winners and losers, the third world is a winner, standards of living there are improving by the day, that is because money and work is moving there, and it is moving there from the first world, ie from us.
The only plausible way we are going to match them on productivity is a substantial fall in the standard of our living, our productivity is falling because we are getting culturally lazy and that is almost impossible to change. Education is unlikely to improve, and if Labour get back in power is will get a whole lot worse as the blob take back all the improvements made under Gove.
We didn't sign that, we did that Assembly Resolution.
Are you making the assumption that our military cost us nothing to run when it isn't in the middle east ? They still get paid, still burn diesel, and still shoot things.
They are paying down Britians debts.. I just got paid out today for my war loan from WW2 Thanks George.
It's got them next to nowhere.
When was the first time the UK fulfilled this target. 1970 or 2011?
How many other countries are actually paying 0.7%? (hint most of the EU haven't yet even got plans to achieve it)
Note the phrasing. It talks of 'best efforts' and Cameron decides to achieve it for the first time during the worst financial crisis in 80 years.Borrowing money as this government has just to give away to other countries is not 'best efforts' it is just lunacy. Cameron's sacred cow is nothing more than self indulgent profligacy
And I see the Government commitment to international agreements doesn't yet extend to definitively confirming our agreement with NATO that we will keep our defence spending at 2.0% of GDP. Funny how some agreements must be met but others can be casually tossed away.......
managed at the minute
The announcement of 500 new free schools is yet another
lurch to the right from the party that only got into power at
all by pretending to be Compassionate Conservatives
Having killed off Dr Frankenstein Gove in a seeming understanding of
how hated these unwanted schools full of frauds, extremists
and unqualified teachers were ..Dave goes and promises to build
500 more of his monsters to head shaking all round from
the education profession and most parents
No wonder the I is reporting of civil war in the Tory party today
on its front page
Unfortunately Balls and Co are too thick and full of socialist ideology to realise that the only way for the UK to prosper is to lead on technology. However, Balls shrieks at any form of education that is not under local authority control where they can impose their LCD for all - ideology rules instead of the best education for each child according to their talents. We know what happens under Labour LA control e.g Nottingham.
Wales (Labour) has just woken up after over 15 years to find out that their teacher training is defective: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-31770118. What hope do our children have for a better future under the education planned for them by the Eds - only a race to the bottom.
First pointed out on pb.com.......
Rich's Monday Morning View [CARTOON] features @NicolaSturgeon and @Ed_Miliband http://guyfawk.es/1BiraFR
Love it! Now I'm off for walk.
Neil Woodford, who set up his own investment firm last year, said the concept was "fundamentally flawed" and he expected the "stresses and strains" in the area to continue to increase.
"In a very simple sense pretending that Greece was Germany is a fundamental error," he told BBC World News.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31791928
UK businesses saw overall costs fall in February for the first time in six years, a survey suggests.
The business trends report from the accountancy and services group BDO said that its inflation index had descended into deflationary territory for the first time since 2009.
BDO credited the fall to the sharp drop in crude oil prices, which have almost halved since June.
It said the fall in prices would enable firms to invest in growth.
"Lower input prices will help entrench the recovery, as consumers gain more spending power, " said BDO partner Peter Hemington.
The report also found both business confidence and companies' hiring intentions remained high, with companies expecting the steady growth in the UK economy to continue into mid-2015.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31790986
Conservative:
Only we have the long term economic plan to set the country right (positive version)
Ed Miliband is a gurning muppet who has learned nothing from the last time that Labour bankrupted the country and will bankrupt it again (negative version)
Labour:
Only we understand the social democratic structures that the British people expect in a civilised country (positive version)
The Tories are heartless toffs who want to privatise air (negative version)
If the public believe all of these arguments, it seems to me that the Conservatives are marginally better placed than Labour.
In Salmond target Gordon Lord A found 24% of CON voters on 1st question ready to switch to the LDs. in Inverness the figure was 21%.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/rethinking-scotland-in-wake-of-latest.html
I'll probably be giving this subject a rest for a little while now, having done it to death.
If business input prices are falling, then surely the case for QE and low interest rates disappears?
I'll go under over 43.5 combined at 5/6 for the Ukip score, any takers?
ONE of the loudest and most controversial Yes supporters in the referendum could be charged with a criminal offence over missing financial papers, the Electoral Commission has said.
The watchdog said that, alongside prosecutors, it was now considering whether to take enforcement action against the Wings Over Scotland website run from Bath by Scots-born Stuart Campbell.
It emerged last month that Wings Over Scotland and four smaller campaigners had failed to report their spending during the referendum.
http://scottishpol.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/prosecutors-consider-wings-over.html
Choices George had when elected given Brown's £120bn/year structural deficit (simplified edition)
1. The Canada 1994 solution - Cut 30% of public spending, balance the books overnight, basically the government just said it isn't going to fund whole rafts of things at all, rather than just trimming them a bit - not possible, not the slightest chance the LDs would have supported it, and even if they had there would have been riots in the streets.
2. The Current Solution - Try and bring down public spending to the extent that he can get it past the LDs whilst borrowing to fill the gap - that't what he is doing, but the LDs wont let him cut very much, and the public are crying already
3. Continuity Labour - Carry on pissing money against the wall, continue to DOUBLE public spending every ten years (under Brown public spending would now be around £1tn/year, not the 700bn/year it currently is). Popular with the voters so long as the economy doesn't crash, but doesn't even pretend to fix the economy.
http://www.statgeek.co.uk/charts/scotland-leadership-ratings-six-month.png
The Scots conspicuously feel they are in a different country to the rest of us.
All we are doing is arguing about the terms of the divorce.
Best to get it over with as soon as possible.
http://www.bbc.com/news/31765265
The differences between the productivity scenarios in terms of borrowing are far larger than the differences between the parties' plans.
There is a political choice as to which fiscal target to aim for, but how difficult that target is to hit - and how much pain it implies - will depend on the underlying performance of the economy and productivity.
It is 'the economy, stupid' - but not in the way either party wishes to discuss.....
Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf
Bring back Jade Dernbach and Alistair Cook
It is just the north of the country that is out of step with the Sco/sUK axis of prosperity.
Would this move be accepted by the British public ? I think the Tories should clarify their position ahead of the election, as many people would be worried by such a change.
*Cough* Story only for political anoraks *cough*
It says
Under Labour, which has proposed lower departmental spending cuts, the loss would be smaller although still substantial, at 20,000 posts, according to senior civil servants.
....At its peak in 2010, when Labour was in power, the department and its associated agencies employed more than 121,000 people.
Now there's 83k people there.
.....or not....
Lab: 23
SNP: 49
Where's Bobachangehisname to tell us that there is 'nothing to see' in Scottish Labour?
'To borrow the most incendiary saying of all: If Scotland rules England, I can foresee the Thames foaming with much blood'
http://tinyurl.com/lk4aou9
I think @Easteross is more typical of the average Scots voter on this than @DavidL.
PS how's the job front ?
As for the rest don't be so sensitive. I wasn't looking for Tory excuses. One of your colleagues was repeating the tiresome Clegg and Cameron lie that they were paying down the debt. I was just pointing out that such a claim was untrue.
PS You have no idea how weak and impotent Tories sound when they keep blaming other parties for their record in government and in elections. True as it may be it doesn't sound at all convincing and really isn't something Tories should advertise.
PPS Funny how the Tories manage to persuade the Libdems raising VAT (despite the VA bombshell posters during the election) and on tuitions fees and scrapping the 50p tax rate but were incapable of persuading them on other issues. I think the saying goes 'Where there's a will there's a way'.
To be fair, I did wonder how much that piece has been edited - but it is also by Allan (pere) not Alex Massie (fils), of course.
"For the English regard a government dependent on the SNP as undemocratic and an insult to democracy itself." Well, well. The idea that democratically elected SNP MPs are in themselves 'an insult to democracy' rather does knock the basis of the Union to smithereens.
[whack!]
Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.
1) where there are actually a fair number of Scottish Conservatives in the constituency
2) where the Conservatives won't think that they have a decent chance of taking the seat themselves
3) where tactical votes might make a difference
If we posit an average swing from Scottish Labour to SNP of 20% or so in No-friendly seats (which seems reasonable, given the most recent constituency polls from Lord Ashcroft), only East Renfrewshire comes close to meeting all three conditions. I suppose that Conservative switchers might make the difference in Glasgow North West and Glenrothes as well, but it's hardly as though there's much to squeeze in either place.
It seems to me that the whole idea is all a bit of a red herring.
Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.
Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.
England paying the price for having an Essex free side... Oh for Ravi and Cooky
If England lose this East London will be one big party tonight #onenation
That turned out well.
Because all the other top teams do that.
http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/8203-Northampton-Labour-candidate-rejects-1-000/story-26138966-detail/story.html
This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.
Alex Salmond should win Gordon easily. If Danny Alexander holds Inverness, it will be because Drew Hendry's supreme arrogance has lost him votes.
bubbly at a poll rating of 32% after 5 months of non stop media
Mili bashing and "good" economic news propoganda..they must
be even more desperate than.I thought
As the I says senior Tories are in despair at their poll ratings
and turning on Crosby for his negative strategy
My father had Parkinsons so a similar position to your mother, not that easy to manage. I was fortunate in that my brother gave up work to look after him, the most I could help out was giving him a break from care ( he has friends in Glasgow and would go to the Scottish cup final !) . But I don't think he ever regretted doing it and he's now back in work. I suspect given the state of my MiL it'll be my turn in the near future.
Maybe I can teach her to blog ?
His awe of Brown (which I have to ignore) and naughty behaviour in office notwithstanding (and I suspect, even then, he was probably doing what they all do and just got caught), I thought his Power Trip book was brilliant and he has an undeniably enjoyable style of writing.
We import players, which is tantamount to cheating in my eyes, then still get humiliated. What price dignity?
Exciting game on here though!