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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-educated, incumbent stood in a major election

This is the first in a short series of posts looking a polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost.

Read the full story here

GeoffM

First! Waiting up for the cricket...

Indigo

FPT:

weejonnie said:

If he doles out goodies then the Tories are losing. If he doesn't dole out any goodies then the Tories are winning.

The key thing to look for is elephant traps for left-leaning chancellors, rather like the 50% tax rate for right-leaning chancellors, any of those and its a sure sign he thinks they are going to lose.

GeoffM

Indigo said:

FPT:

weejonnie said:

If he doles out goodies then the Tories are losing. If he doesn't dole out any goodies then the Tories are winning.

The key thing to look for is elephant traps for left-leaning chancellors, rather like the 50% tax rate for right-leaning chancellors, any of those and its a sure sign he thinks they are going to lose.

The most obvious and downright spiteful one was Brown cutting the Prime Ministerial salary.
Can't even put it back up without it looking like you are giving yourself a payrise on day one.

MikeSmithson

GeoffM said:

Indigo said:

FPT:

weejonnie said:

If he doles out goodies then the Tories are losing. If he doesn't dole out any goodies then the Tories are winning.

The key thing to look for is elephant traps for left-leaning chancellors, rather like the 50% tax rate for right-leaning chancellors, any of those and its a sure sign he thinks they are going to lose.

The most obvious and downright spiteful one was Brown cutting the Prime Ministerial salary.
Can't even put it back up without it looking like you are giving yourself a payrise on day one.

Absolutely. That was a mean and spiteful act by Gordon which does his reputation no good at all. Indeed it looks as though the final period of the LAB government was devoted to leaving elephant traps. The problem is that Osborne operates in the same manner. Getting one over on Balls is more important than what is right.

Indigo

MikeSmithson said:

GeoffM said:

Indigo said:

FPT:

weejonnie said:

If he doles out goodies then the Tories are losing. If he doesn't dole out any goodies then the Tories are winning.

The key thing to look for is elephant traps for left-leaning chancellors, rather like the 50% tax rate for right-leaning chancellors, any of those and its a sure sign he thinks they are going to lose.

The most obvious and downright spiteful one was Brown cutting the Prime Ministerial salary.
Can't even put it back up without it looking like you are giving yourself a payrise on day one.

Absolutely. That was a mean and spiteful act by Gordon which does his reputation no good at all. Indeed it looks as though the final period of the LAB government was devoted to leaving elephant traps. The problem is that Osborne operates in the same manner. Getting one over on Balls is more important than what is right.

Indeed, so we need to look out for Savings Bonds for Public Sector Employees or the like, something that will look innocuous, will be impossible for a Labour Chancellor to repeal without an enormous fuss, and although initially cheap cost a fortune when they start to vest in 3-4 years time.

Moses_

Does Labour have a women problem.......? Err yes.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2984961/Don-t-call-love-Tory-Nicky-Morgan-slams-Labour-star-condescending-jibe-heated-Commons-debate.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2985642/Fury-MP-calls-Scots-leader-wee-lass-tin-helmet-Labour-whip-given-dressing-party-disgraceful-slur.html

A recent poll showed CAMERON more liked by women than Miliband ( don't have a link but it was picked up on here a few weeks ago)


How does this square with Harmans pink bus? Poor ol' Timmy must be turning in his pixels.

RobD

Perhaps due to difficulties in predicting how people will use their second preference?

RobD

GeoffM said:

Indigo said:

FPT:

weejonnie said:

If he doles out goodies then the Tories are losing. If he doesn't dole out any goodies then the Tories are winning.

The key thing to look for is elephant traps for left-leaning chancellors, rather like the 50% tax rate for right-leaning chancellors, any of those and its a sure sign he thinks they are going to lose.

The most obvious and downright spiteful one was Brown cutting the Prime Ministerial salary.
Can't even put it back up without it looking like you are giving yourself a payrise on day one.

Yeah, that was pretty low. One wonders why Brown didn't do it from day one. I for one think the PM should be handsomely compensated.

Indigo

Moses_ said:

A recent poll showed CAMERON more liked by women than Miliband ( don't have a link but it was picked up on here a few weeks ago)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11156102/Now-Ed-Miliband-has-the-women-problem-as-a-PM.html

31% Dave
12% Ed

fitalass

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

The polling in the lead up to the last 'Mayoral election' won't really tell us very much about how a Labour Mansion tax which will largely effect London, but will go along way to help pay for extra nurses in Scotland will then play out in the polls in the lead up to the next GE or the final results. Neither will it shed much light on just what a drag Ed Miliband's personal polling might end up becoming on the Labour turn out in London, he certainly doesn't appear to share the personal local vote or longevity of Ken Livingston as a politician in the UK capital.

For me and a lot of other voters right across the UK, the big question in the run up to the next GE is going to be whether Ed Miliband & Co will rule out any deals with the SNP after the GE? This particular issue and debate is gaining momentum by the day, and it was certainly reflected throughout last weeks BBC QuestionTime in Glasgow. As it now looks unlikely that either Ken Livingston or Boris Johnson are going to be on the London Mayoral election ballot paper next time, it interesting to note that its no longer a question of how the Labour party perform in London that might hold the key to the GE result.

Rather than looking back to London in 2012, it might be far more constructive to focus on how the Labour party is going to perform in Scotland in a few weeks time. Will they be able to rescue their current polling position and go onto replicate their 2010 GE performance, or will they really suffer a 2011 Holyrood election drubbing? And could the intense media focus on the possibility of an SNP result on GE day that might leave them in a position to wag the tail of a Labour minority Government, or even a ragbag rainbow coalition start effecting peoples voting intentions across the whole UK in the run up the GE?

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

Indigo

Regarding..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457917/Danny-Alexander-I-will-block-George-Osbornes-potty-tax-cut-plans.html

What happens if the Conservatives basically tell him to p*ss off and change the taxes using delegated legislation and orders in council. Effectively dissolve the coalition at the 59th minute and challenge the LDs to vote down the Finance Act. In the same way the LDs could just decide to vote against the Finance Act at the last minute, and bring it down, to kick the government as they leave office. What happens if a Finance Act fails to pass when the election has already been called ?

Hengists_Gift

I don't think we can take figures from London as being representative for the simple reason that throughout London seems to have been protected because of its relative prosperity from the worst ravages of the 'Great Recession'. Furthermore, London more than any other region benefitted from additional PESA spending during the noughties moving up from 5th to 2nd in per capita expenditure table. Given the high population that was no small investment. In comparison to the rest of the South and Midlands it did extremely well during and period and that would have helped to insulate it better when the economic crisis set in.

As such people in London are voting from a noticeably different perspective than much of the rest of the country. Consequently, the swing away from Labour was lower in 2010, Johnson bucked the national trend in 2012 and polls suggest it has been lower since. I suspect the net effect will be that the economy will be less of an issue in London and other considerations such as Health, education, welfare, child care, crime, house prices and availability, immigration (but far more pro-immigration than elsewhere) will resonate more.

Ishmael_X

fitalass said:

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

The polling in the lead up to the last 'Mayoral election' won't really tell us very much about how a Labour Mansion tax which will largely effect London, but will go along way to help pay for extra nurses in Scotland will then play out in the polls in the lead up to the next GE or the final results. Neither will it shed much light on just what a drag Ed Miliband's personal polling might end up becoming on the Labour turn out in London, he certainly doesn't appear to share the personal local vote or longevity of Ken Livingston as a politician in the UK capital.

For me and a lot of other voters right across the UK, the big question in the run up to the next GE is going to be whether Ed Miliband & Co will rule out any deals with the SNP after the GE? This particular issue and debate is gaining momentum by the day, and it was certainly reflected throughout last weeks BBC QuestionTime in Glasgow. As it now looks unlikely that either Ken Livingston or Boris Johnson are going to be on the London Mayoral election ballot paper next time, it interesting to note that its no longer a question of how the Labour party perform in London that might hold the key to the GE result.

Rather than looking back to London in 2012, it might be far more constructive to focus on how the Labour party is going to perform in Scotland in a few weeks time. Will they be able to rescue their current polling position and go onto replicate their 2010 GE performance, or will they really suffer a 2011 Holyrood election drubbing? And could the intense media focus on the possibility of an SNP result on GE day that might leave them in a position to wag the tail of a Labour minority Government, or even a ragbag rainbow coalition start effecting peoples voting intentions across the whole UK in the run up the GE?

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

Moses_

Indigo said:

Moses_ said:

A recent poll showed CAMERON more liked by women than Miliband ( don't have a link but it was picked up on here a few weeks ago)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11156102/Now-Ed-Miliband-has-the-women-problem-as-a-PM.html

31% Dave
12% Ed

Thanks.....

Hengists_Gift

Indigo said:

Regarding..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457917/Danny-Alexander-I-will-block-George-Osbornes-potty-tax-cut-plans.html

What happens if the Conservatives basically tell him to p*ss off and change the taxes using delegated legislation and orders in council. Effectively dissolve the coalition at the 59th minute and challenge the LDs to vote down the Finance Act. In the same way the LDs could just decide to vote against the Finance Act at the last minute, and bring it down, to kick the government as they leave office. What happens if a Finance Act fails to pass when the election has already been called ?

From what I can see not a lot will happen (other than the usual Westminster posturing) unless its followed by a vote of no confidence and even if there were a vote chances are there would not necessarily be any change to the date of the election.

So if it doesn't pass, we'll have an election and then shortly afterwards whoever gets in power will have another budget. If its the Tories they will bring back everything they announced if not then we'll have to wait and see.

The thing is if parties are seen to vote down goodies for the voters that will hardly be viewed in a positive light.

RobD

Ishmael_X said:

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I agree, a much better effort.

Hengists_Gift

Ishmael_X said:

fitalass said:

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I really don't think this Scotland thing is going to have the sort of impact some people think before the election. People south of the border have little idea what the SNP are about so when they are presented as these 'northern usurpers' I don't think it registers. Yes those who are politically switched on may register but the rest will be pretty much oblivious.

It will only be if the SNP repeatedly subvert English legislation or with Labour do significant damage to the economy or to regions within the country after the election that it will resonate.

RobD

Indigo said:

Regarding..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457917/Danny-Alexander-I-will-block-George-Osbornes-potty-tax-cut-plans.html

What happens if the Conservatives basically tell him to p*ss off and change the taxes using delegated legislation and orders in council. Effectively dissolve the coalition at the 59th minute and challenge the LDs to vote down the Finance Act. In the same way the LDs could just decide to vote against the Finance Act at the last minute, and bring it down, to kick the government as they leave office. What happens if a Finance Act fails to pass when the election has already been called ?

I don't think voting down the budget brings down the government, the motion has to be that the House has no confident in HMs government. And given the new Act, if the budget is less than 14 days prior to when parliament was to be dissolved anyway (not sure if this is the case), the House would have to pass an additional motion calling for the general election to be earlier.

RobD

RobD said:

Ishmael_X said:

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I agree, a much better effort.

For the benefit of others, from the old thread:

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/574698480557514752/photo/1

Hengists_Gift

RobD said:

Indigo said:

Regarding..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457917/Danny-Alexander-I-will-block-George-Osbornes-potty-tax-cut-plans.html

What happens if the Conservatives basically tell him to p*ss off and change the taxes using delegated legislation and orders in council. Effectively dissolve the coalition at the 59th minute and challenge the LDs to vote down the Finance Act. In the same way the LDs could just decide to vote against the Finance Act at the last minute, and bring it down, to kick the government as they leave office. What happens if a Finance Act fails to pass when the election has already been called ?

I don't think voting down the budget brings down the government, the motion has to be that the House has no confident in HMs government. And given the new Act, if the budget is less than 14 days prior to when parliament was to be dissolved anyway (not sure if this is the case), the House would have to pass an additional motion calling for the general election to be earlier.

The wiki article suggests if there was a vote of no confidence that the Queen would name the date of the election on the advice of the Prime Minister and Parliament is dissolved 25 days before the election. So unless Dave wants to finesse the date of the election for some random reason I doubt it would change and I cannot see how Parliament could change the election date otherwise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

Ishmael_X

Hengists_Gift said:

Ishmael_X said:

fitalass said:

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I really don't think this Scotland thing is going to have the sort of impact some people think before the election. People south of the border have little idea what the SNP are about so when they are presented as these 'northern usurpers' I don't think it registers. Yes those who are politically switched on may register but the rest will be pretty much oblivious.

It will only be if the SNP repeatedly subvert English legislation or with Labour do significant damage to the economy or to regions within the country after the election that it will resonate.

I agree insofar as it's a point about Scotland. But it's also a point about ed - that he is a puppet of other interests, whether that's the snp or the unions

fitalass

I think you severely underestimate the interest generated by the latter stages of Indy Referendum South of the border, and the dangers this issue now poses to the Ukip performance in some of their key target seats at the GE. I suspect that a few Conservative/Labour to Ukip switchers may have factored in and been able to stomach a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government in the short term. But the risk of a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government that is then propped up by grubby back room deals with the SNP on a Confidence and Supply basis might prove to be intolerable.

As campaign slogans go, they don't get more powerful than the one that Cameron used last week.
BBC News - David Cameron calls on Ed Miliband to rule out SNP deal

"Speaking at an event to mark two months until polling day, Mr Cameron said: "If you thought the worst outcome in this election is a Labour government led by Ed Miliband, think again.

"You could end up with a Labour government led by Ed Miliband, propped up by Alex Salmond and the Scottish National Party.

"You could end up with an alliance between the people who want to bankrupt Britain and the people who want to break up Britain."

Hengists_Gift said:

Ishmael_X said:

fitalass said:

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I really don't think this Scotland thing is going to have the sort of impact some people think before the election. People south of the border have little idea what the SNP are about so when they are presented as these 'northern usurpers' I don't think it registers. Yes those who are politically switched on may register but the rest will be pretty much oblivious.

It will only be if the SNP repeatedly subvert English legislation or with Labour do significant damage to the economy or to regions within the country after the election that it will resonate.

Hengists_Gift

fitalass said:

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

The polling in the lead up to the last 'Mayoral election' won't really tell us very much about how a Labour Mansion tax which will largely effect London, but will go along way to help pay for extra nurses in Scotland will then play out in the polls in the lead up to the next GE or the final results. Neither will it shed much light on just what a drag Ed Miliband's personal polling might end up becoming on the Labour turn out in London, he certainly doesn't appear to share the personal local vote or longevity of Ken Livingston as a politician in the UK capital.

For me and a lot of other voters right across the UK, the big question in the run up to the next GE is going to be whether Ed Miliband & Co will rule out any deals with the SNP after the GE? This particular issue and debate is gaining momentum by the day, and it was certainly reflected throughout last weeks BBC QuestionTime in Glasgow. As it now looks unlikely that either Ken Livingston or Boris Johnson are going to be on the London Mayoral election ballot paper next time, it interesting to note that its no longer a question of how the Labour party perform in London that might hold the key to the GE result.

Rather than looking back to London in 2012, it might be far more constructive to focus on how the Labour party is going to perform in Scotland in a few weeks time. Will they be able to rescue their current polling position and go onto replicate their 2010 GE performance, or will they really suffer a 2011 Holyrood election drubbing? And could the intense media focus on the possibility of an SNP result on GE day that might leave them in a position to wag the tail of a Labour minority Government, or even a ragbag rainbow coalition start effecting peoples voting intentions across the whole UK in the run up the GE?

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

The Libdems have suffered because they joined a coalition with the Tories and Labour have suffered for being seen to work with the Tories to save the Union. See the trend in that? As for the Tories Scottish polling levels its true they are relatively stable but even so they are at such a relatively low level that they are now being bypassed by the SNP almost everywhere and as such the Tory vote in Scotland is pretty much irrelevant outside a couple of constituencies....

Hengists_Gift

fitalass said:

I think you severely underestimate the interest generated by the latter stages of Indy Referendum South of the border, and the dangers this issue now poses to the Ukip performance in some of their key target seats at the GE. I suspect that a few Conservative/Labour to Ukip switchers may have factored in and been able to stomach a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government in the short term. But the risk of a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government that is then propped up by grubby back room deals with the SNP on a Confidence and Supply basis might prove to be intolerable.

As campaign slogans go, they don't get more powerful than the one that Cameron used last week.
BBC News - David Cameron calls on Ed Miliband to rule out SNP deal

"Speaking at an event to mark two months until polling day, Mr Cameron said: "If you thought the worst outcome in this election is a Labour government led by Ed Miliband, think again.

"You could end up with a Labour government led by Ed Miliband, propped up by Alex Salmond and the Scottish National Party.

"You could end up with an alliance between the people who want to bankrupt Britain and the people who want to break up Britain."

Hengists_Gift said:

Ishmael_X said:

fitalass said:

"

I really don't think this Scotland thing is going to have the sort of impact some people think before the election. People south of the border have little idea what the SNP are about so when they are presented as these 'northern usurpers' I don't think it registers. Yes those who are politically switched on may register but the rest will be pretty much oblivious.

It will only be if the SNP repeatedly subvert English legislation or with Labour do significant damage to the economy or to regions within the country after the election that it will resonate.

A quick check on Newsnow (which covers all the main TV websites, most of the national newspapers and many regional papers and other current affairs websites (Speccie, Staggers, Pinknews) for example demonstrates that the number of articles which feature the SNP (6) is almost half that of UKIP (11) in England in the last 24 hrs. If you then consider all the articles about the establishment parties that were written in the last 24 hours for English consumption in reality the Labour SNP thing is a very small percentage of the political coverage. There again I doubt someone who I believe lives 200 miles plus north of the English border with their own Scottish media would necessarily appreciate that.

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Current+Affairs/Government+&+Politics

CarlottaVance

Hengists_Gift said:

Ishmael_X said:

fitalass said:

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I really don't think this Scotland thing is going to have the sort of impact some people think before the election.

I wouldn't underestimate it.

There was a poll of English voters before SindyRef which showed them in a pretty unforgiving mood - however fair, the view was 'the Scots get lots of free stuff we pay for....and its got to stop'

Paul_Mid_Beds

MikeSmithson said:

GeoffM said:

Indigo said:

FPT:

weejonnie said:

If he doles out goodies then the Tories are losing. If he doesn't dole out any goodies then the Tories are winning.

The key thing to look for is elephant traps for left-leaning chancellors, rather like the 50% tax rate for right-leaning chancellors, any of those and its a sure sign he thinks they are going to lose.

The most obvious and downright spiteful one was Brown cutting the Prime Ministerial salary.
Can't even put it back up without it looking like you are giving yourself a payrise on day one.

Absolutely. That was a mean and spiteful act by Gordon which does his reputation no good at all. Indeed it looks as though the final period of the LAB government was devoted to leaving elephant traps. The problem is that Osborne operates in the same manner. Getting one over on Balls is more important than what is right.

The thing is that, if you think Labour and Balls would be a total disaster for a country that can ill afford another fiscally incompetent Labour government, then shafting the opposition by whatever means is in the national interest as far as you are concerned. And after the Campbell/Blair government of 1997 onwards, playing in a gentlemanly way is a thing of the past.

Paul_Mid_Beds

RobD said:

RobD said:

Ishmael_X said:

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I agree, a much better effort.

For the benefit of others, from the old thread:

https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/574698480557514752/photo/1

That is superb. Poor old Dwayne.

Hengists_Gift

CarlottaVance said:

Hengists_Gift said:

Ishmael_X said:

fitalass said:

"This is the first in a short series of posts looking at polling that highlights areas that could cause problems on May 7th. This one concerns the strength of the Labour brand when everything seemed lost."

In the past, some on here have criticised the Conservative voters inability to vote tactically in individual seats. But looking at some of Lord Ashcroft's marginals polling, particularly in Scotland, that might the very key to why the Conservatives up there are not suffering anywhere near the same level of polling hit as both their Labour and Libdems have done against the SNP in key individual seats.

The new Salmond poster is masterly. Compare and contrast the cack-handed predecessor at http://order-order.com/2015/01/23/new-tory-poster-targets-miliband-and-salmond/

And you have to love the timing: tell ed to rule out a pact, count slowly to 20, release poster. And if ed doesn't like it, he can take it up with the empty chair.

I really don't think this Scotland thing is going to have the sort of impact some people think before the election.

I wouldn't underestimate it.

There was a poll of English voters before SindyRef which showed them in a pretty unforgiving mood - however fair, the view was 'the Scots get lots of free stuff we pay for....and its got to stop'

Absolutely, I freely acknowledge that and as I said if Wee Eck comes down to Westminster with a Tartan Army and starts throwing his weight about and there is even a hint it is with the agreement of Labour then Labour will pay dearly.

However, I really do not think that a Labour / SNP agreement is going to rate highly on English voters criteria for deciding who they vote for. Furthermore, even if it did all it says is don't vote Labour. It doesn't necessarily mean they will vote Tory. They are just as likely to vote UKIP or Green or even Libdem in such circumstances.

English voters will be more interested in the NHS, Economy, Cost Of Living, Education, Immigration and so forth. Thats part of the reason why the Tories have gone early on this before the main campaign gets going. It will be totally overshadowed once the manifestos are out and the real issues come to the fore.

TGOHF

The mayoral election was before individual voter registration came in.

JackW

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds

Hengists_Gift

JackW said:

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds

Jack I must have missed it but what does APLOMB stand for....?

Hengists_Gift

Speaking of Scots and Tories here is another speaking of the fragility of both his party and the Union

Murdo Fraser MSP: An EU referendum – the end of the UK…or the end of the Conservative Party?

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/03/murdo-fraser-msp-an-eu-referendum-the-end-of-the-uk-or-the-end-of-the-conservative-party.html

Indigo

Hengists_Gift said:

RobD said:

Indigo said:

Regarding..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457917/Danny-Alexander-I-will-block-George-Osbornes-potty-tax-cut-plans.html

What happens if the Conservatives basically tell him to p*ss off and change the taxes using delegated legislation and orders in council. Effectively dissolve the coalition at the 59th minute and challenge the LDs to vote down the Finance Act. In the same way the LDs could just decide to vote against the Finance Act at the last minute, and bring it down, to kick the government as they leave office. What happens if a Finance Act fails to pass when the election has already been called ?

I don't think voting down the budget brings down the government, the motion has to be that the House has no confident in HMs government. And given the new Act, if the budget is less than 14 days prior to when parliament was to be dissolved anyway (not sure if this is the case), the House would have to pass an additional motion calling for the general election to be earlier.

The wiki article suggests if there was a vote of no confidence that the Queen would name the date of the election on the advice of the Prime Minister and Parliament is dissolved 25 days before the election. So unless Dave wants to finesse the date of the election for some random reason I doubt it would change and I cannot see how Parliament could change the election date otherwise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

That is what I suspected, so the Realpolitik suggests that George will stick whatever he wants in his budget and to hell with what Danny Alexander thinks about it.

Freggles

I'm not sure associating Labour with the party of free prescriptions and no tuition fees is as negative as some think.
I feel like CCHQ are spending too much time on Twitter among us anoraks.

JackW

Hengists_Gift said:

JackW said:

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds

Jack I must have missed it but what does APLOMB stand for....?

APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

The voting cognoscenti purchase their favourite party (political) pie from everyday retail outlets like Fortnum and Harrods and the sales are evaluated according to the SOAMES political weighting model.

SOAMES - System Of Analysing Mainland Election Support

TGOHF

Freggles said:

I'm not sure associating Labour with the party of free prescriptions and no tuition fees is as negative as some think.
I feel like CCHQ are spending too much time on Twitter among us anoraks.

It's free prescriptions and no tuition fees for other people, paid for by you to keep Ed in power..

Hengists_Gift

Indigo said:

Hengists_Gift said:

RobD said:

Indigo said:

Regarding..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457917/Danny-Alexander-I-will-block-George-Osbornes-potty-tax-cut-plans.html

What happens if the Conservatives basically tell him to p*ss off and change the taxes using delegated legislation and orders in council. Effectively dissolve the coalition at the 59th minute and challenge the LDs to vote down the Finance Act. In the same way the LDs could just decide to vote against the Finance Act at the last minute, and bring it down, to kick the government as they leave office. What happens if a Finance Act fails to pass when the election has already been called ?

I don't think voting down the budget brings down the government, the motion has to be that the House has no confident in HMs government. And given the new Act, if the budget is less than 14 days prior to when parliament was to be dissolved anyway (not sure if this is the case), the House would have to pass an additional motion calling for the general election to be earlier.

The wiki article suggests if there was a vote of no confidence that the Queen would name the date of the election on the advice of the Prime Minister and Parliament is dissolved 25 days before the election. So unless Dave wants to finesse the date of the election for some random reason I doubt it would change and I cannot see how Parliament could change the election date otherwise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011

That is what I suspected, so the Realpolitik suggests that George will stick whatever he wants in his budget and to hell with what Danny Alexander thinks about it.

Indeed, I think time has run out for the Libdems and their shenanigans.....

felix

OT The pre-occupation of the left and their hangers-on with the education of some of our political leaders at Eton (a factor over which they had as little control as being born black or Jewish, etc) is akin to racism - 'educationism' if you will. It proves the point that everyone tries to get away with one form of prejudice or another. What will the next trend be - premature baldness?

Indigo

Freggles said:

I'm not sure associating Labour with the party of free prescriptions and no tuition fees is as negative as some think.
I feel like CCHQ are spending too much time on Twitter among us anoraks.

The rUK public view it as the party that wants to leave the UK and take as much of the family silver as they can grab on the way out the door and is currently giving their people all sorts of jollies at the expense of the rest of the country. The truth of the matter is beside the point, politics is perception.

Hengists_Gift

Freggles said:

I'm not sure associating Labour with the party of free prescriptions and no tuition fees is as negative as some think.
I feel like CCHQ are spending too much time on Twitter among us anoraks.

Thats free prescriptions and no tuition fees for the Scots arguably funded by the English taxpayer when there is not a cats chance in hell of the English getting the same deals.

Hengists_Gift

felix said:

OT The pre-occupation of the left and their hangers-on with the education of some of our political leaders at Eton (a factor over which they had as little control as being born black or Jewish, etc) is akin to racism - 'educationism' if you will. It proves the point that everyone tries to get away with one form of prejudice or another. What will the next trend be - premature baldness?

Well actually its not bigotry to condemn class according to the left its actually a war which conveniently allows them to consider themselves as 'Class Warriors' (hilarious considering so many are peaceniks). I suppose there is an echo of Rambo Citizen Smith in them all .

Shhhhhh don't mention the follically challenged (and never buy them a brush, comb, hair scissors or a 'David Beckham Bryl Creem poster' for Christmas )

Indigo

Hengists_Gift said:

Well actually its not bigotry to condemn class according to the left its actually a war which conveniently allows them to consider themselves as 'Class Warriors' (hilarious considering so many are peaceniks).

Not to mention champagne socialists and trustafarians, like that well known son of the soil and scion of the working classes, the Shadow Education Secretary.

Wikipedia seems to have a list of well known http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champagne_socialist

DavidL

First ever century for Bangladesh in a World Cup. Highest ever partnership for Bangladesh in a WC broken by a run out. Our bowlers have forgotten how to take wickets.

276 is gettable but it is also possible that this is the end of the road for this sorry team.

nigel4england

DavidL said:

First ever century for Bangladesh in a World Cup. Highest ever partnership for Bangladesh in a WC broken by a run out. Our bowlers have forgotten how to take wickets.

276 is gettable but it is also possible that this is the end of the road for this sorry team.

It would be no more than they deserve, they have been an embarassment.

DavidL

On topic, not a very good result for the pollsters. But with second preferences and the, ah, interesting, voting habits of some Inner London boroughs they had some excuses. I think applying this result to the GE is quite problematic.

I also wonder if polls showing such an easy win for Boris meant some of his supporters in the suburbs did not bother.

tlg86

fitalass said:

I think you severely underestimate the interest generated by the latter stages of Indy Referendum South of the border, and the dangers this issue now poses to the Ukip performance in some of their key target seats at the GE. I suspect that a few Conservative/Labour to Ukip switchers may have factored in and been able to stomach a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government in the short term. But the risk of a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government that is then propped up by grubby back room deals with the SNP on a Confidence and Supply basis might prove to be intolerable.

This Kipper couldn't care less about the prospect of Ed being propped up by the SNP. Cameron's been in power for nearly five years and he's done nothing about the Scottish question. In fact, I'd quite like a Lab-SNP stitch up as it's probably the only way things will change and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukip as the recipients of support from very angry Labour voters in England.

foxinsoxuk

tlg86 said:

fitalass said:

I think you severely underestimate the interest generated by the latter stages of Indy Referendum South of the border, and the dangers this issue now poses to the Ukip performance in some of their key target seats at the GE. I suspect that a few Conservative/Labour to Ukip switchers may have factored in and been able to stomach a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government in the short term. But the risk of a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government that is then propped up by grubby back room deals with the SNP on a Confidence and Supply basis might prove to be intolerable.

This Kipper couldn't care less about the prospect of Ed being propped up by the SNP. Cameron's been in power for nearly five years and he's done nothing about the Scottish question. In fact, I'd quite like a Lab-SNP stitch up as it's probably the only way things will change and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukip as the recipients of support from very angry Labour voters in England.

Cameron has done nothing for the Scottish question?

Apart from organising and winning a democratic mandate for the Union for the first time in history.

Apart from that...

Sean_F

DavidL said:

On topic, not a very good result for the pollsters. But with second preferences and the, ah, interesting, voting habits of some Inner London boroughs they had some excuses. I think applying this result to the GE is quite problematic.

I also wonder if polls showing such an easy win for Boris meant some of his supporters in the suburbs did not bother.

In parts of London, the election was as much an ethnic headcount as elections in the South of the US.

Scott_P

Chris Leslie on R4, again refusing to rule out a deal with the SNP

[Deleted User]

tlg86 said:

fitalass said:

I think you severely underestimate the interest generated by the latter stages of Indy Referendum South of the border, and the dangers this issue now poses to the Ukip performance in some of their key target seats at the GE. I suspect that a few Conservative/Labour to Ukip switchers may have factored in and been able to stomach a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government in the short term. But the risk of a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government that is then propped up by grubby back room deals with the SNP on a Confidence and Supply basis might prove to be intolerable.

This Kipper couldn't care less about the prospect of Ed being propped up by the SNP. Cameron's been in power for nearly five years and he's done nothing about the Scottish question. In fact, I'd quite like a Lab-SNP stitch up as it's probably the only way things will change and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukip as the recipients of support from very angry Labour voters in England.

Yup. The problem for the unionist mainstream parties is that they see the preservation of the Union as being more important than anything else and are quite willing to sacrifice any number of principles to achieve this. For many many English people (and Scots too) the issue of fairness and doing the right thing is more important. If the price of union is that England must forever pay tribute to Scotland, a Scotland that holds the balance of power in Westminster, well that is not going to be OK. I'd rather see an independent Scotland than the debasement of fairness and rights for the English.

tlg86

foxinsoxuk said:

tlg86 said:

fitalass said:

I think you severely underestimate the interest generated by the latter stages of Indy Referendum South of the border, and the dangers this issue now poses to the Ukip performance in some of their key target seats at the GE. I suspect that a few Conservative/Labour to Ukip switchers may have factored in and been able to stomach a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government in the short term. But the risk of a weak Ed Miliband led Labour Government that is then propped up by grubby back room deals with the SNP on a Confidence and Supply basis might prove to be intolerable.

This Kipper couldn't care less about the prospect of Ed being propped up by the SNP. Cameron's been in power for nearly five years and he's done nothing about the Scottish question. In fact, I'd quite like a Lab-SNP stitch up as it's probably the only way things will change and I wouldn't be surprised to see Ukip as the recipients of support from very angry Labour voters in England.

Cameron has done nothing for the Scottish question?

Apart from organising and winning a democratic mandate for the Union for the first time in history.

Apart from that...

Okay - let me rephrase - he's done nothing about the English question. Personally, I was absolutely gutted the sweaty socks didn't vote for independence.

Scrapheap_as_was

Poll-monday....

I'm going for an average Tory lead of 1% over the 3 polls today.....

AlastairMeeks

The only lesson I draw from this is the usual one that we shouldn't take opinion polls too seriously.

chestnut

The most important revelation in the thread topic concerns the polling companies.

The same culprits as we've seen at Euro 2014 and in by-election/constituency polling producing the least accurate results.

SquareRoot

another Dave can't win thread.,

Scott_P

SquareRoot said:

another Dave can't win thread.,

Only 180 more to go...

anotherDave

SquareRoot said:

another Dave can't win thread.,

I can if I want!

anotherDave

The polls don't predict leads though. They predict vote shares, with a margin of error.

So anything up to -9 ish would be considered accurate.

Smarmeron

Ahh, the start of new day with the Blue team ramming home the party's message.

"The Tories
Whining here!"

CD13

Well, if there's a Labour/SNP stitich-up with the Haggis barrel politics that entails, we can all recite the old nursery rhyme ...

"Hark! hark! the dogs do bark, The beggars are coming to town; Some in rags and some in tags, And some in silken gowns."

Some think it refers to the entourage of James VI when he became James I of England. What happened them? The gunpowder plot.

richardDodd

Order Order Mad Ali having a go at a Labour MP who refuses to take Blair's Blood money. A rare find... a Labour MP with some principles.

SMukesh

Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.

This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.

[Deleted User]

I see that Dave is today promising a Tory government would double the number of free schools. This is a very clear two fingers to the Blob and reason enough to vote Tory on its own, never mind the good economic story. If this country is going to succeed and thrive in the future we can't compete on cost and must compete at the top end of the market as a technologically advanced developed nation. We need genuine educational progress not dumbing down and prizes for all. I know Gove is a hugely divisive figure but I think that educational reform has been this coalition governments' greatest achievement.

Smarmeron

@SMukesh
There will be one overriding theme during this election (black swans excepted), and both the Tories and Labour have planted the seeds.
Which of them make it to the top depends on which one takes root the best.

foxinsoxuk

SMukesh said:

Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.

This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.

Pretty obvious nonsense though! Lowest unemployment for years...

Sean_F

SMukesh said:

Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.

This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.

Depends how many people remember the 1930s.

Hengists_Gift

SMukesh said:

Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.

This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.

Its rather absurd even trying to spin that one when this government printed £200 billion in QE and borrowed over £500 billion just to make ends meet How much more did Balls expect to borrow on top? £100 billion, £200 billion. Only innumerate socialists will fall for that one

Smarmeron

@foxinsox

Seen any figures for declining food bank usage, decrease in homelessness?....etc?

TGOHF

Smarmeron said:

@foxinsox

Seen any figures for declining food bank usage, decrease in homelessness?....etc?

Decline in demand for free food ? Now that would be impressive.

foxinsoxuk

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.

This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.

Depends how many people remember the 1930s.

I believe that from 1934-9 Britain had one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

London may be of limited use as a comparison for the UK as a whole, given whites are not (yet) a minority UK-wide. Plus, there's no Plaid/SNP in London.

foxinsoxuk

Smarmeron said:

@foxinsox

Seen any figures for declining food bank usage, decrease in homelessness?....etc?

Not exactly the Jarrow March is it?

How are Labour planning to reduce foodbank usage?

Hengists_Gift

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.

This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.

Depends how many people remember the 1930s.

If they remember the 1930's they probably also remember the the almighty mess the Labour Government made of the Great Crash and subsequent economic crisis between 1929 and 1931 which ensured Tory led governments until World War II

tlg86

foxinsoxuk said:

Smarmeron said:

@foxinsox

Seen any figures for declining food bank usage, decrease in homelessness?....etc?

Not exactly the Jarrow March is it?

How are Labour planning to reduce foodbank usage?

Rename them...

Smarmeron

@TGOHF
You would prefer to talk about the economy perhaps?
GDP increasing due to internal consumption, productivity shamefully low, and our imports rising?
That is sustainable?

another_richard

Sean_F said:

SMukesh said:

Ed Balls talking about the Tory cuts taking us back to the 1930`s.

This election might hinge on how effectively Labour are able to make this argument.

Depends how many people remember the 1930s.

An era of rapid technological progress, massive growth in home ownership and fast improving living standards.

It was the 1920s which were the crap decade for the UK.

TGOHF

Smarmeron said:

@TGOHF
You would prefer to talk about the economy perhaps?
GDP increasing due to internal consumption, productivity shamefully low, and our imports rising?
That is sustainable?

Imports rising ? Because we are prospering. You want laws to limit us to British cheese and wine.

Welsh built tablets for civil servants - patriotic purchasing.

another_richard

Re London

Labour did better than expected in 2008, 2010 (locally and nationally), 2012 and 2014.

I don't see any reason why that pattern wont continue in 2015.

Smarmeron

@another_richard
"It was the 1920s which were the crap decade for the UK."

You are a student of alternative history Richard?


"5 October 1936
Jarrow men march to London to highlight local poverty and unemployment

Poverty and mass unemployment (as high as 70%) in the north east of England drove 200 men from Jarrow, Tyne and Wear, to march 300 miles to London to deliver a petition to parliament asking for a steel works to replace the local shipyard that had recently closed down. The marchers attracted considerable public sympathy, but the crusade ultimately made little real impact. In heavy industry areas like the north east the Depression continued until the rearmament boom of World War Two."

Roger

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/Lange-MigrantMother02.jpg

Smarmeron

@TGOHF
"Imports rising ? Because we are prospering. You want laws to limit us to British cheese and wine."

No Harry, I would like us to be able to trade for the luxuries you want, not have to buy it on the "never never".

TGOHF

Smarmeron said:

@TGOHF
"Imports rising ? Because we are prospering. You want laws to limit us to British cheese and wine."

No Harry, I would like us to be able to trade for the luxuries you want, not have to buy it on the "never never".

Consumers are paying down debt - have been for 5+ years.

Car production figures show what can be done in these conditions.

SquareRoot

Car sales are amazing because of PCP's.. My l;ocal dealer says 80% are sold via this method.

Hengists_Gift

Smarmeron said:

@another_richard
"It was the 1920s which were the crap decade for the UK."

You are a student of alternative history Richard?


"5 October 1936
Jarrow men march to London to highlight local poverty and unemployment

Poverty and mass unemployment (as high as 70%) in the north east of England drove 200 men from Jarrow, Tyne and Wear, to march 300 miles to London to deliver a petition to parliament asking for a steel works to replace the local shipyard that had recently closed down. The marchers attracted considerable public sympathy, but the crusade ultimately made little real impact. In heavy industry areas like the north east the Depression continued until the rearmament boom of World War Two."

Indeed and after 80 years of Labour domination of the region its still about the least productive part of England. That tells you volumes.....

Smarmeron

@TGOHF
We are booming through asset inflation, it is what governments need to do to cover the fact we are borrowing too much.
It works perfectly well until the rest of the world starts to question how much of that value is real.
A bit like a compulsive gambler in many ways I always thought.

Indigo

Smarmeron said:

@TGOHF
"Imports rising ? Because we are prospering. You want laws to limit us to British cheese and wine."

No Harry, I would like us to be able to trade for the luxuries you want, not have to buy it on the "never never".

I think we must have missed you suggestion for the Labour solution to this one as well... Oh wait! Crashing the economy into the wall would do it, problem solved!

another_richard

TGOHF said:

Smarmeron said:

@TGOHF
"Imports rising ? Because we are prospering. You want laws to limit us to British cheese and wine."

No Harry, I would like us to be able to trade for the luxuries you want, not have to buy it on the "never never".

Consumers are paying down debt - have been for 5+ years.

Car production figures show what can be done in these conditions.

Household debt has fallen marginal as a percentage and not at all in actual value and I believe might now be rising again.

Meanwhile the rise in debt has merely switched from the household sector to the government. £600bn extra on the national debt pays for a lot of imports, which is why the UK current acccount is at record levels.

In any case the OBR predicts a massive rise in household debt during the next five years.

The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume.

GIN1138

Morning all.

(Just For Fun) Today's Polling Predictions:

Populus - Lab Lead 3%

The Good Lord - Lab Lead 4%

YouGov - Lab Lead 1%

Indigo

Smarmeron said:

@TGOHF
We are booming through asset inflation, it is what governments need to do to cover the fact we are borrowing too much.
It works perfectly well until the rest of the world starts to question how much of that value is real.
A bit like a compulsive gambler in many ways I always thought.

If the rest of the world notices, the Magic Money Tree will die that instant, what were Labour planning to spend if they won ?

Labour doesn't have remotely clean hands for asset inflation, since QE started under Brown.

Smarmeron

@another_richard
"The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume."

Sadly. yes.

TGOHF

So borrowing not going up and lefties blame borrowing.

Clueless.

Indigo

another_richard said:

The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume.

Hardly a big surprise when we have anyone to the left of Nick Clegg whining about how drastic the cuts have been, when we are actually spending more on public spending, even in real terms, than we were five years ago. As has been commented by several politicians, they know what to do, they just don't know how to do it and win the election. The British public whine and bitch and cry because they have been busy having a party on someone else's credit card and the bill just dropped through the door.

Smarmeron

@TGOHF
Yes Harry, you are indeed, but if you apply yourself a little, and read what I posted previously, you will see how the "miracle" is done.

Indigo

TGOHF said:

So borrowing not going up and lefties blame borrowing.

Clueless.

Borrowing would go up a lot under the lefties, but that is different, that Labour Borrowing, not remotely the same thing (actually you can tell the difference easily enough, Labour Borrowing is strictly for pissing up the wall)

Smarmeron

@Indigo
All our borrowing has been pissed against the wall for many years, and borrowing doesn't actually fall.
What you need to do to cover this fact is to grow our economy, or, you can choose to inflate it, and hope no one notices.
The problem with the latter is that people are getting better and better at noticing this, and it means that "corrections" happen far more frequently.

NickPalmer

Perhaps contra-intuitively, upbeat Scottish Labour conference:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457973/Rumours-of-Scottish-Labours-demise-are-premature.html

Roger

We all admire the informative posters without too much bias and get bored by those who just perform pom pom routines.

Yet as the election gets close hardly any of us can help ourselves. I'm reminded of the 'SALE' commercial where shoppers start by politely walking then speed up and by the end they're rugby tackling each other to get into the store first. Life imitating an ad. That's got to be a frst!

Hengists_Gift

Indigo said:

another_richard said:

The fundamental economic basis remains the same under Osborne as it did under Brown ie borrow to consume.

Hardly a big surprise when we have anyone to the left of Nick Clegg whining about how drastic the cuts have been, when we are actually spending more on public spending, even in real terms, than we were five years ago. As has been commented by several politicians, they know what to do, they just don't know how to do it and win the election. The British public whine and bitch and cry because they have been busy having a party on someone else's credit card and the bill just dropped through the door.

When, for example Cameron (supported by Labour and Libdems in Westminster) ring fences International Aid personally and that will cost likely in excess of £60 billion over the next government that's unfair on voters. Its more the case that the government don't necessarily want to make the same cuts as many voters want.

another_richard

TGOHF said:

So borrowing not going up and lefties blame borrowing.

Clueless.

So the near £600bn this government will have borrowed is your definition of 'borrowing not going up'.

As for the future take a look at page 81 of the OBN's latest forecast:

http://cdn.budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/December_2014_EFO-web513.pdf

it predicts a rise in household borrowing of over £500bn between 2015 and 2020.

IMO very unlikely to happen but the OBN has to forecast that in order for its prediction of a rapid fall in government borrowing to occur.

Whether it is household or government borrowing the fundamental economic strategy of Brown, Osborne and Balls remains the same ie borrow to consume.

AlastairMeeks

NickPalmer said:

Perhaps contra-intuitively, upbeat Scottish Labour conference:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457973/Rumours-of-Scottish-Labours-demise-are-premature.html

Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.