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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the polls performed the last time a charismatic, Eton-e

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Indigo said:

    Populus

    Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

    Debate-gate outrage....oh...
    You think 32% is a good score for the Tories?

    Come off it, it's a MoE movement as have just about all Tory movements since Christmas.
    the Tory PBs are cracking open the bubbly
    You need new glasses - I can't see a single post.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363


    Carnyx said:

    antifrank said:

    Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
    The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
    I've seen a comment that only 3 prospective Tory to Lab tactical voters out of, I assume, ca. 1000 sampled could be found in Jim Murphy's seat in the Ashcroft poll - and that is one with a high Tory content. Though when I looked at the data I couldn't confirm this. Might be worth a look by someone else as that is one area where if you believe the likes of the London chatterati (and to be fair, IIRC, some of the more pro_Labour/Union media in Scotland), the Tories should be lapping up Mr Murphy and SLAB as their saviours.

    SLAB has a long-term systemic problem which won't be solved by May.Labour will have to circle the wagons around Paisley to keep the kill rate down to anything like 20.A good ground game at targeted seats can pull some round but in a game of damage limitation some SLAB MPs are dead men/women walking.


    The following story appeared in the Sunday Herald yesterday. I can't judge the accuracy of this story - but it does suggest that there is some recognition of your point amongst some - which would of course abandon n SLAB MPs to the natives, and in the short term causes tensions and disputes. Bit late perhaps.

    "SCOTTISH Labour's bid to hold on to its Westminster contingent is being hampered amid claims that too much of the party's energy is being used to save one Glasgow MP.
    Sources have told this newspaper that the party is showing favouritism towards shadow Scotland Secretary Margaret Curran by staging high-profile events in her constituency."

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/labour-insiders-saving-currans-a-drain-on-resources.1425801336
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    England are a disgrace.

    Bring back Jade Dernbach and Alistair Cook

    Too early to suggest that a defeat here might be the best thing in the medium term ?
    We said that in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011
    Schofield Report won us two Ashes series.

    Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.
    Do I not like that.
    Geoffrey Boycott - can you hear me... ?
    The most painful thing about this is, we in part agreed to reschedule this winter's Ashes series, to last winter, to give us a better chance in the world cup.

    That turned out well.
    Great news is that Root is being rested for the Windies test series.

    Because all the other top teams do that.

    At least we're bringing back Trotty.
    England will win this match by 5 wickets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    I remember going to Bangladesh plenty on business in about 1993-4. One of the things I was constantly asked about was whether I could pull any strings for a Test Match with England. They were absolutely desperate for it back then.

    I didn't. So don't blame me. But if they pull off the win, against England, booting us out the World Cup, that country - which until now has been equally tormented by meteorology and cricket - will party hard. This really would be their arrival on the cricketing world stage.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

    http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

    I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    Pulpstar said:

    Populus

    Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

    As you were.
    Yep. We see this pattern at every General Election. We politics nerds think that someone's speech or tactical stance or poster is going to shift the polls, and then it turns out that nothing is happening. Campaigning largely cancels out, and it takes a real black swan - the Cleggasm looked a possibility last time - to make a difference.

    In this weekend's canvassing, the number of people mentioning the following issues to me was:

    Debates: 0
    Scotland: 1
    Tuition fees: 1
    Immigration figures: 0
    NHS: 3

    But lots of people keenly interested in the election, exactly like football supporters - they're engaged in the contest rather than the issues. How's it going? Are we going to win? Here's what I think of candidate X! Did you see that awful leaflet from Y?

    As GIN observed the other day, Labout supporters are just counting down the days. 8.5 weeks to go.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Populus

    Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

    Debate-gate outrage....oh...
    You think 32% is a good score for the Tories?

    You think 33% for Ed (fearless Tribune of the people) is a good score?

    Surely if debate gate was a 'disaster for Cameron' it must have been a 'triumph for Ed'?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Pulpstar said:

    Populus

    Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

    As you were.
    As GIN observed the other day, Labout supporters are just counting down the days. 8.5 weeks to go.

    Unfortunate typo!

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    England are a disgrace.

    Bring back Jade Dernbach and Alistair Cook

    Too early to suggest that a defeat here might be the best thing in the medium term ?
    We said that in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011
    Schofield Report won us two Ashes series.

    Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.
    Do I not like that.
    Geoffrey Boycott - can you hear me... ?
    The most painful thing about this is, we in part agreed to reschedule this winter's Ashes series, to last winter, to give us a better chance in the world cup.

    That turned out well.
    Great news is that Root is being rested for the Windies test series.

    Because all the other top teams do that.

    At least we're bringing back Trotty.
    England will win this match by 5 wickets.
    Selling root for tuppence a run (@57), can win even if England win I think ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Eagle


    "*Cough* Story only for political anoraks *cough*"

    Too early to tell. It's not the raw facts-Cameron won't debate Miliband-it's how a narrative is formed around the facts. I quite like 'silver spoons' 'Eton'
    and when 'courage' was removed from the syllabus?

    An ideal launchpad for the resurrection of Spitting Image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,363
    Pulpstar said:

    Carnyx said:

    antifrank said:

    Another mention of tactical voting in favour of Scottish Labour. Now all we need is to see the slightest trace of that in the polls.
    The only people who are talking about SLAB being saved by tactical voting are the London chatterati. I don't know a single Scots Tory who would cross the street to save a Labour politician from defeat. They have vilified us for far too long for us to give a shit what happens to Murphy and chums.
    I've seen a comment that only 3 prospective Tory to Lab tactical voters out of, I assume, ca. 1000 sampled could be found in Jim Murphy's seat in the Ashcroft poll - and that is one with a high Tory content. Though when I looked at the data I couldn't confirm this. Might be worth a look by someone else as that is one area where if you believe the likes of the London chatterati (and to be fair, IIRC, some of the more pro_Labour/Union media in Scotland), the Tories should be lapping up Mr Murphy and SLAB as their saviours.

    Why on earth would Scottish Tories help Labour out. The Lib Dems - I can see an argument for it perhaps around the Highlands... particularly with Danny. But Scottish Conservatism will be well served long term by the destruction of Scottish Labour/Lib Dems. I mean if both Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem are mullered on the night then they may well both push to the left of the SNP leaving a gaping hole in what one could consider the natural UK centre ground for the Conservatives to fill. That could long term lead to three or four seats ;)

    I think @Easteross is more typical of the average Scots voter on this than @DavidL.
    Noted, and I see some SLAB ativists have already registered the rights to the name 'Scottish Labour Party' independently (no pun intended) of Head Office in London. I am not sure what to make of this, mind you.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/activists-apply-to-trademark-scottish-labour-party-in-hope-of-break-with-.120139169

    "A GROUP of Jim Murphy's supporters are preparing for Scottish Labour to break away from London and become a truly independent party in its own right, the Sunday Herald can reveal.

    The senior activists have applied to register the name "Scottish Labour Party" as a legal trademark in the hope of a radical change.

    Dennis Goldie, a former Labour council leader and Holyrood candidate in Falkirk, filed the application with the UK's Intellectual Property Office (IPO) in December."
  • coolagornacoolagorna Posts: 127

    antifrank said:

    Courtesy of John Rentoul on Twitter:

    http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/8203-Northampton-Labour-candidate-rejects-1-000/story-26138966-detail/story.html

    This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.

    The candidates are idiots, Blair is the reason Labour were able to win seats in places like Northamptonshire in the first place.
    Well done Sally Keeble

    You on the other hand appear to think accepting the blood money of
    war criminals is an acceptable funding method for candidates

    You dont seem to realise most Labour activists and supporters
    hate Blair as much as they hate Cameron

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. Alistair, the SNP isn't Scotland.

    Funny, the Tories (even Scottish ones) don't seem to be arsed about making the distinction.

    'To borrow the most incendiary saying of all: If Scotland rules England, I can foresee the Thames foaming with much blood'

    http://tinyurl.com/lk4aou9



    Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?

    PS how's the job front ?
    Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!

    Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.

    Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.
    Good luck on the employment front. Perchance the YES badges and war paint aren't enough. At the next interview you should probably stand up, turn round and lift your kilt to reveal a fine ....

    Sorry to note your mothers condition.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

    http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

    I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.

    Not because you're on her at 1-3 :) ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    This comparison is not meaningful. In no way can Cameron be described as charismatic.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

    http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

    I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.

    Not because you're on her at 1-3 :) ?
    Well, that I am (though I hadn't realised when I placed the bet that Labour were going to be quite so shambolic in this constituency). But even if I had no money on her, I would still want her in Parliament so that her experiences could inform public debate.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    Looking at the people who follow Tim on twitter I came across Nick Palmers account...

    A bit more feisty in convo w Anna Soubry than the 'nothing to see here' statesman act we get on here
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

    http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

    I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.

    Not because you're on her at 1-3 :) ?
    Well, that I am (though I hadn't realised when I placed the bet that Labour were going to be quite so shambolic in this constituency). But even if I had no money on her, I would still want her in Parliament so that her experiences could inform public debate.
    It's a good read, and looks like she may well give George a good fight.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Antifrank

    "Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:"

    What a story! She'd get my vote
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Pulpstar said:

    Populus

    Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

    As you were.
    Yep. We see this pattern at every General Election. We politics nerds think that someone's speech or tactical stance or poster is going to shift the polls, and then it turns out that nothing is happening. Campaigning largely cancels out, and it takes a real black swan - the Cleggasm looked a possibility last time - to make a difference.

    In this weekend's canvassing, the number of people mentioning the following issues to me was:

    Debates: 0
    Scotland: 1
    Tuition fees: 1
    Immigration figures: 0
    NHS: 3

    But lots of people keenly interested in the election, exactly like football supporters - they're engaged in the contest rather than the issues. How's it going? Are we going to win? Here's what I think of candidate X! Did you see that awful leaflet from Y?

    As GIN observed the other day, Labout supporters are just counting down the days. 8.5 weeks to go.

    Always interesting to note your canvassing anecdotes Nick.

    Perhaps at the close of poll on May 7th you might consider posting your expected result and majority. We might even have a PB competition on the Broxtowe declaration. :smile:

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    This comparison is not meaningful. In no way can Cameron be described as charismatic.

    WHAT IS OUR BET ON THE LIB DEM GE PERF?????

    I have staked the £20 you owe me on it, 10th time I have asked you!!
  • Roger said:

    Antifrank

    "Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:"

    What a story! She'd get my vote

    I'm utterly shocked by the revelation that you would vote Labour.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

    http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

    I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.

    Not because you're on her at 1-3 :) ?
    Well, that I am (though I hadn't realised when I placed the bet that Labour were going to be quite so shambolic in this constituency). But even if I had no money on her, I would still want her in Parliament so that her experiences could inform public debate.
    Having read that I hope she wins. However I fear that such testimony may be one of the reasons she doesn't.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    England wont even make 200 at this end....6 down.

    Kit man should probably get the bags back for flight back to England.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    England wont even make 200 at this end....6 down.

    Kit man should probably get the bags back for flight back to England.

    Plenty batting yet to come - Ravi, Cook, Finn, Tredwell..
  • Re The Tory Poster of Ed and Alex, that was inspired by Spitting Image and the Two Davids rights?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    Mr. Alistair, the SNP isn't Scotland.

    Funny, the Tories (even Scottish ones) don't seem to be arsed about making the distinction.

    'To borrow the most incendiary saying of all: If Scotland rules England, I can foresee the Thames foaming with much blood'

    http://tinyurl.com/lk4aou9



    Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?

    PS how's the job front ?
    Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!

    Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.

    Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.
    Very sorry to read your news. My mother lives with me and although she is incredibly well and fit at 80, every time I go away on business, I worry sick in case she falls in the garden and with no neighbours, could lie there until I raise the alarm with a neighbouring farmer.

    I do hope you are able to organise things because you cannot let it effectively end your working life. Try putting the badges on backwards :) Good luck old boy, you are facing what many of us fear.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    England wont even make 200 at this end....6 down.

    Kit man should probably get the bags back for flight back to England.

    Still have to play Afghan in a dead rubber - that should be worth getting up for.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Needing 276 to beat Bangladesh, England's cricket team are 163 for 6 after 35 overs.

    Only Buttler can save England from being eliminated along with Afghanistan at the qualifying stages.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    England wont even make 200 at this end....6 down.

    Kit man should probably get the bags back for flight back to England.

    I've found in life's little difficulties that the buttler often comes to the rescue.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Indigo said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Indigo
    All our borrowing has been pissed against the wall for many years, and borrowing doesn't actually fall.
    What you need to do to cover this fact is to grow our economy, or, you can choose to inflate it, and hope no one notices.
    The problem with the latter is that people are getting better and better at noticing this, and it means that "corrections" happen far more frequently.

    I would be highly surprised if our economy grows enough, we are on the wrong side of the productivity curve compared to most of the developing world, who are both more productive and cheaper than us. We used to have a technology advantage, but largely we now don't (just consider where all the cutting edge Apple gear is made, and 90% of the laptops in the world).

    Globalisation was always going to have winners and losers, the third world is a winner, standards of living there are improving by the day, that is because money and work is moving there, and it is moving there from the first world, ie from us.

    The only plausible way we are going to match them on productivity is a substantial fall in the standard of our living, our productivity is falling because we are getting culturally lazy and that is almost impossible to change. Education is unlikely to improve, and if Labour get back in power is will get a whole lot worse as the blob take back all the improvements made under Gove.
    This isn't right. Bringing new workers and consumers into the economy increases the productivity of both new workers and existing workers. For example, if you're a British journalist working for the Daily Mail, the same piece about the bra-less Kim Kardashian displaying her cleavage in a DEEPLY plunging cat-suit can now be read by millions of people in India. This makes you a vastly more productive journalist, even if you're doing exactly the same work and producing the same output. That's before you start using the newly available labour pool to actually get more done, for example by leveraging image-recognition cleavage detection software made by a team in the Philippines.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046

    antifrank said:

    Courtesy of John Rentoul on Twitter:

    http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/8203-Northampton-Labour-candidate-rejects-1-000/story-26138966-detail/story.html

    This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.

    The candidates are idiots, Blair is the reason Labour were able to win seats in places like Northamptonshire in the first place.
    Well done Sally Keeble

    You on the other hand appear to think accepting the blood money of
    war criminals is an acceptable funding method for candidates

    You dont seem to realise most Labour activists and supporters
    hate Blair as much as they hate Cameron

    They didn't hate him in 2005. After Iraq.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155

    Mr. Alistair, the SNP isn't Scotland.

    Funny, the Tories (even Scottish ones) don't seem to be arsed about making the distinction.

    'To borrow the most incendiary saying of all: If Scotland rules England, I can foresee the Thames foaming with much blood'

    http://tinyurl.com/lk4aou9



    Aww shucks divvie don't you read my posts any more ?

    PS how's the job front ?
    Course I do, but can't be on 24hr tenterhooks!

    Had a couple of interviews plus another couple this week and next week, thanks for asking. Not getting an overwhelming sense of demand for my talents, not sure if the Yes badges and face paint help in interview situations.

    Unfortunately my mother's dementia is really starting to kick in so am seriously thinking about putting career plans (such as they are) on hold.
    Sorry to hear that divvie, good luck hunting.

    My father had Parkinsons so a similar position to your mother, not that easy to manage. I was fortunate in that my brother gave up work to look after him, the most I could help out was giving him a break from care ( he has friends in Glasgow and would go to the Scottish cup final !) . But I don't think he ever regretted doing it and he's now back in work. I suspect given the state of my MiL it'll be my turn in the near future.

    Maybe I can teach her to blog ?

    Thanks to you and others for good wishes. Unless we're unlucky enough to die before our folks, I guess most of us will encounter some version of these situations, hard going though.

    I look forward to your MiL's blogs on the manifold qualities of her son in law.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    England are a disgrace.

    Bring back Jade Dernbach and Alistair Cook

    Too early to suggest that a defeat here might be the best thing in the medium term ?
    We said that in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011
    Schofield Report won us two Ashes series.

    Moores is the Graham Taylor of cricket management.
    Do I not like that.
    Geoffrey Boycott - can you hear me... ?
    The most painful thing about this is, we in part agreed to reschedule this winter's Ashes series, to last winter, to give us a better chance in the world cup.

    That turned out well.
    Great news is that Root is being rested for the Windies test series.

    Because all the other top teams do that.

    At least we're bringing back Trotty.
    England will win this match by 5 wickets.
    Selling root for tuppence a run (@57), can win even if England win I think ;)
    #Everylittlehelps :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    TGOHF said:

    England wont even make 200 at this end....6 down.

    Kit man should probably get the bags back for flight back to England.

    Still have to play Afghan in a dead rubber - that should be worth getting up for.
    Could lose that too..Afghanistan could have beaten Sri Lanka if that had managed to get one more wicket at a crucial time.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    NickPalmer said:

    Perhaps contra-intuitively, upbeat Scottish Labour conference:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457973/Rumours-of-Scottish-Labours-demise-are-premature.html

    NICK AND ALL POIINTS SOUTH

    Cochrane of the Telegraph is the joke figure of Scottish journalism. Mad as a hatter and with a tired and emotional fixation with the union. Rely on anything he says is like reaching for straws in your Pims!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    They'll be dancing in the streets of Newham tonight !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    Adam Memon, CPS think tank
    To be clear, @edballsmp's vision of catastrophe based on day to day spending at 2002 levels and size of state at virtually same as in 2000

    Of course Norman "Wigan Pier" Smith, says the scale of cuts Ed Balls was suggesting was bordering on apocalyptic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    scotslass said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Perhaps contra-intuitively, upbeat Scottish Labour conference:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457973/Rumours-of-Scottish-Labours-demise-are-premature.html

    NICK AND ALL POIINTS SOUTH

    Cochrane of the Telegraph is the joke figure of Scottish journalism. Mad as a hatter and with a tired and emotional fixation with the union. Rely on anything he says is like reaching for straws in your Pims!

    I'm waiting to see the SNP conference at the SECC. Should be able to ride the high from that all the way till polling day I reckon.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    I don't come to mock Ed Miliband's shiny new TV-Debate-or-Prison law, though it deserves mockery, as much as does its author.

    More than mockery is required, because Miliband's proposal is so much worse than buffoonery. It's a revealing slip, the more so because I doubt the Labour leader has the psychological machinery to comprehend why his proposal found few supporters, other than among the robo-human replicants supplied by Len McCluskey to stand in place of actual Labour candidates around the country (sorry, "this great nation of ours"). It's that psychological deficit which is so politically fatal.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11458448/Ed-Milibands-absurd-TV-debate-law-reveals-his-totalitarian-instincts.html
    David Cameron would be put on trial for refusing to take part in televised party leader election debates in accordance with the wishes of the broadcasters, if Ed Miliband has his way.

    If we make the charitable assumption that this is not just a stunt, we can say it corresponds to the default position of socialists that whatever they think is good should be made compulsory. Perhaps Mr Miliband will later propose that watching the debates should also become mandatory.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2985744/DOMINIC-LAWSON-BBC-s-arrogance-TV-debates-threaten-future.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Looks like Sporting Index are about to put up some very interesting constituency markets:

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5065157/uk-general-election-constituency-indices-a-b
  • antifrank said:

    Courtesy of John Rentoul on Twitter:

    http://www.northampton-news-hp.co.uk/8203-Northampton-Labour-candidate-rejects-1-000/story-26138966-detail/story.html

    This seems to be becoming a trend. After the election, I wonder whether we will see differential performance by these Labour candidates, and if so in which direction.

    The candidates are idiots, Blair is the reason Labour were able to win seats in places like Northamptonshire in the first place.
    Well done Sally Keeble

    You on the other hand appear to think accepting the blood money of
    war criminals is an acceptable funding method for candidates

    You dont seem to realise most Labour activists and supporters
    hate Blair as much as they hate Cameron

    War Criminal? Easy to throw around that kind of thing when its an opinion rather than a fact. I for one am proud to be a Labour voter and a supporter of the Iraq War. Go ask the Kurds or the Kosovans if they think Blair is a war criminal? I think they'd reply that Milosevic and Hussein were the real criminals.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    What is the expected prison term for non attendance at any future televised debate?
    hmmm?
    Shilling and retweeting for your party is admirable, but sometimes it is better to actually think things through first, rather than rely on blatantly false facts and statements.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    antifrank said:

    Labour may have stumbled into finding a powerful opponent for George Galloway. Courtesy of Patrick Wintour on twitter, this has to be read:

    http://urban-echo.co.uk/exclusive-bradford-west-labour-candidate-naz-shah-reveals-all/

    I hope that she makes it to Parliament, because she could add so much to debates that for many in Parliament are purely theoretical.

    That is some story. Stark contrast to the usual SPAD - I really hope she gets in. In fact, it'd be quite depressing if she didn't. Over to you, Bradford ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Looks like Sporting Index are about to put up some very interesting constituency markets:

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5065157/uk-general-election-constituency-indices-a-b

    Sell the Tories in Airdrie & Shotts :D
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    What is the expected prison term for non attendance at any future televised debate?
    hmmm?
    Shilling and retweeting for your party is admirable, but sometimes it is better to actually think things through first, rather than rely on blatantly false facts and statements.

    I'm more worried about the penalties for those viewing at home. They are bound to be amongst the enhancmenents to the law when it comes out of committee stage. How long do you get for yawning when on of the candidates is speaking? What happens if you sneak out to make a cuppa half way through and of course the big one: What happens if you prefer to watch the footie on the other side?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Go ask the Kurds or the Kosovans if they think Blair is a war criminal? I think they'd reply that Milosevic and Hussein were the real criminals.

    Technically it's possible for leaders on both sides to be war criminals, although in practice only people on one side get prosecuted for it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Scott_P said:

    I don't come to mock Ed Miliband's shiny new TV-Debate-or-Prison law, though it deserves mockery, as much as does its author.

    More than mockery is required, because Miliband's proposal is so much worse than buffoonery. It's a revealing slip, the more so because I doubt the Labour leader has the psychological machinery to comprehend why his proposal found few supporters, other than among the robo-human replicants supplied by Len McCluskey to stand in place of actual Labour candidates around the country (sorry, "this great nation of ours"). It's that psychological deficit which is so politically fatal.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11458448/Ed-Milibands-absurd-TV-debate-law-reveals-his-totalitarian-instincts.html
    David Cameron would be put on trial for refusing to take part in televised party leader election debates in accordance with the wishes of the broadcasters, if Ed Miliband has his way.

    If we make the charitable assumption that this is not just a stunt, we can say it corresponds to the default position of socialists that whatever they think is good should be made compulsory. Perhaps Mr Miliband will later propose that watching the debates should also become mandatory.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2985744/DOMINIC-LAWSON-BBC-s-arrogance-TV-debates-threaten-future.html

    What I found most troubling about Miliband's idea is that there doesn't appear to be any get out even if the broadcasters put ridiculous requirements in place.

    "So, good evening, wannabe Prime Minister's, you each have just a minute to persuade me, Ant, and him, Dec, to vote for you. You must give your answers for precisely one minute without hesitation, deviation or repetition. Fail - and you get dropped in the tank of rancid fish guts. And if the worm goes below the line -

    (audience chants - "No ifs, no buts, drop them in the guts! No ifs, not buts, drop them in the guts!...")

    Yep - you get dropped in the tank of rancid fish guts...."

    "Now, Mister Farage, you have one minute to convince us on this topic. Oh, and you have to do it while talking like a pirate. The topic - why immigration is the best thing that has ever happened for Britain...."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    What is the expected prison term for non attendance at any future televised debate?
    hmmm?
    Shilling and retweeting for your party is admirable, but sometimes it is better to actually think things through first, rather than rely on blatantly false facts and statements.

    I'm more worried about the penalties for those viewing at home. They are bound to be amongst the enhancmenents to the law when it comes out of committee stage. How long do you get for yawning when on of the candidates is speaking? What happens if you sneak out to make a cuppa half way through and of course the big one: What happens if you prefer to watch the footie on the other side?
    You've seen A Clockwork Orange? Eyes wide open....
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @Hengists_Gift
    Dave desperately wanted the debates to take place, he is on record both before and after the last election as saying they were an essential part of democracy?
    Unfortunately, despite his best efforts to afford the public this boon, the broadcasters and other parties have been unreasonable.
    The way forward would logically be to enshrine a framework that would stop such a terrible amount of party politicking and broadcaster shenanigans in future?
    Or perhaps Dave has decided that the debates are no longer good for democracy, and has reverse ferreted on his previously deeply held convictions?
    Still, none few of the papers will ask him such troubling questions, so all is well.
    (Broadcasters might hold a different view, but I am sure he can avoid troublesome televised interviews)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    Headlines if England bt Bangadesh

    'Jos is Giant'

    'Jossies pygmies' (if we lose)

    (By 'we' I mean England even though I live in East London)

    'I love you Buttler'

    'The Buttler did it'

    In the Bangladeshi times

    'I hate you Buttler!'
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    isam said:

    Headlines if England bt Bangadesh

    'Jos is Giant'

    'Jossies pygmies'

    'I love you Buttler'

    'The Buttler did it'

    Got to be 'Buttler done it'
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Smarmeron said:

    @Hengists_Gift
    Dave desperately wanted the debates to take place, he is on record both before and after the last election as saying they were an essential part of democracy?
    Unfortunately, despite his best efforts to afford the public this boon, the broadcasters and other parties have been unreasonable.
    The way forward would logically be to enshrine a framework that would stop such a terrible amount of party politicking and broadcaster shenanigans in future?
    Or perhaps Dave has decided that the debates are no longer good for democracy, and has reverse ferreted on his previously deeply held convictions?
    Still, none few of the papers will ask him such troubling questions, so all is well.
    (Broadcasters might hold a different view, but I am sure he can avoid troublesome televised interviews)

    But it obviously wont actually happen, even EdM isn't that stupid. Should he win the election he won't introduce this law, if he finds himself 5-10 points ahead in the polls before the next election the very last thing he will want to do is be forced into a TV debate that would just sprinkle pixie dust on his opponent. This is purely about electoral positioning for this election, and is therefore disingenuous bullshit.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Smarmeron said:

    @Hengists_Gift
    Dave desperately wanted the debates to take place, he is on record both before and after the last election as saying they were an essential part of democracy?
    Unfortunately, despite his best efforts to afford the public this boon, the broadcasters and other parties have been unreasonable.
    The way forward would logically be to enshrine a framework that would stop such a terrible amount of party politicking and broadcaster shenanigans in future?
    Or perhaps Dave has decided that the debates are no longer good for democracy, and has reverse ferreted on his previously deeply held convictions?
    Still, none few of the papers will ask him such troubling questions, so all is well.
    (Broadcasters might hold a different view, but I am sure he can avoid troublesome televised interviews)

    Televised debates between leaders are not very enlightening, especially when they are only 1.5 hours long and there are seven or eight party leaders. It is too easy for participants to filibuster questions to use up time in such formats.

    Far better are televised interrogations of individual leaders by interviewers such as Andrew Neil et al who have done their homework and have time to press leaders about unanswered questions.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Smarmeron said:

    @Scott_P
    What is the expected prison term for non attendance at any future televised debate?
    hmmm?
    Shilling and retweeting for your party is admirable, but sometimes it is better to actually think things through first, rather than rely on blatantly false facts and statements.

    I'm more worried about the penalties for those viewing at home. They are bound to be amongst the enhancmenents to the law when it comes out of committee stage. How long do you get for yawning when on of the candidates is speaking? What happens if you sneak out to make a cuppa half way through and of course the big one: What happens if you prefer to watch the footie on the other side?
    You're going to have to prise the mute button from my cold dead hands.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    45 from 29 should be easy.

    Butler's pretty good :)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @David_Evershed
    So, why was Dave so sure they were essential David?
    Was he just saying things because they were convenient at the time?
    How often does he state things he doesn't actually believe, is this a common feature of his premiership?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    On TV debates and viewers: these are issues that have been mocked similarly regarding the Kinect for the Xbone.

    The camera can see whether you're watching the screen or not. There's been talk (satirical, I think) of 'achievements' [usually given for progression in videogames] for watching X amount of adverts.

    They've de-bundled the Kinect now, but that was one of various reasons I was never going to buy an Xbox One.

    Saw in the paper that Hogan-Howe reckons homes should have CCTV to help identify burglars. That's creepy as hell. I'm quite happy to be a luddite, with no Google-glass, no chip under my skin and no mobile phone.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited March 2015

    Go ask the Kurds or the Kosovans if they think Blair is a war criminal? I think they'd reply that Milosevic and Hussein were the real criminals.

    Technically it's possible for leaders on both sides to be war criminals, although in practice only people on one side get prosecuted for it.
    But Blair had God on his side so can't be a war criminal.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Oh dear. Buttler out!
  • Pulpstar said:

    45 from 29 should be easy.

    Butler's pretty good :)

    You cursed him you git
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    All over, bar the Boycott rant.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Butler's set us up nicely here. Should be able to see this out.
  • I can live with the despair, it's the hope that kills you.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Smarmeron said:

    @David_Evershed
    So, why was Dave so sure they were essential David?
    Was he just saying things because they were convenient at the time?
    How often does he state things he doesn't actually believe, is this a common feature of his premiership?

    Oh get down off that high horse, he is saying them for the same reason Ed is saying them, short term political expedience, their politicians, what did you expect. Ed is saying this about debates because its convenient for him now, next time it might not be and he will be against it. Politicians are unprincipled liars shock!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    And Butler GONNNEEEEE
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    I 'ate you Buttler, I really do....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Oh God, I forgot we had Chris Jordan in next D:
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Headlines if England bt Bangadesh

    'Jos is Giant'

    'Jossies pygmies'

    'I love you Buttler'

    'The Buttler did it'

    Got to be 'Buttler done it'
    Ooer...

    CJs in

    ' I didn't get where I am today by knocking off the runs against World Cup minnows...'

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I can live with the despair, it's the hope that kills you.

    All green on this match but England will do well to win.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Incidentally, the battle for Ealing Central and Acton is really hotting up. Getting about two postings a week from Con and Lab. Nothing as yet from the Lib Dems, though.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Pulpstar said:

    Populus

    Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

    As you were.
    Yep. We see this pattern at every General Election. We politics nerds think that someone's speech or tactical stance or poster is going to shift the polls, and then it turns out that nothing is happening. Campaigning largely cancels out, and it takes a real black swan - the Cleggasm looked a possibility last time - to make a difference.

    In this weekend's canvassing, the number of people mentioning the following issues to me was:

    Debates: 0
    Scotland: 1
    Tuition fees: 1
    Immigration figures: 0
    NHS: 3

    But lots of people keenly interested in the election, exactly like football supporters - they're engaged in the contest rather than the issues. How's it going? Are we going to win? Here's what I think of candidate X! Did you see that awful leaflet from Y?

    As GIN observed the other day, Labout supporters are just counting down the days. 8.5 weeks to go.

    Since you're here, was accepting a £1000 donation from Blair, worth the negative publicity it has generated?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    TGOHF said:

    I can live with the despair, it's the hope that kills you.

    All green on this match but England will do well to win.
    I'm not - got myself into an unbalanced book with some ill-timed mid game sleeping.
    7 down, still needing 38 off 25 balls.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Headlines if England bt Bangadesh

    'Jos is Giant'

    'Jossies pygmies'

    'I love you Buttler'

    'The Buttler did it'

    Got to be 'Buttler done it'
    Ooer...

    CJs in

    ' I didn't get where I am today by knocking off the runs against World Cup minnows...'

    Out first ball!
  • Scandalous decision.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Indigo
    You might have a valid point, but at the moment it will not stick, because Ed has said he wants a framework in place to avoid such confusion.
    If he gets into power, he may backslide on the commitment, but for the moment, you are reduced to fantasies about gulags and internments if people don't appear on them or indeed watch.
    Makes you all look rather sad and desperate to me, but opinions vary.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015
    We're walkingOur bat's up in the air
    We're floating in the moonlit sky...
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Smarmeron said:

    @David_Evershed
    So, why was Dave so sure they were essential David?
    Was he just saying things because they were convenient at the time?
    How often does he state things he doesn't actually believe, is this a common feature of his premiership?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvDcJydVcHo
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Bat two feet over the line - but still manages to get run out.

    It would be tragic if it weren't so funny.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GeoffM said:

    TGOHF said:

    I can live with the despair, it's the hope that kills you.

    All green on this match but England will do well to win.
    I'm not - got myself into an unbalanced book with some ill-timed mid game sleeping.
    7 down, still needing 38 off 25 balls.
    Stuart "tweet my endorsements" Broad to save the day.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Tories = England
    Labour = Bangladesh

    No way they should win on paper, but....
  • England shafted by the officials in this tournament.

    Denied us victory against the Aussies.

    Now this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    33 runs off last 3 overs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    England shafted by the officials in this tournament.

    Denied us victory against the Aussies.

    Now this.

    Officials cost us 111 runs :D ?

    It's a view.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    33 runs off last 3 overs.

    31 actually.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Will it all come down to Jimmy ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Time for a tenner on eng to win the world cup at 33/1?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited March 2015
    Boycott: 'Not going to get them. No, he's gone in the head'
    Broad hits the next ball for six.
  • Pulpstar said:

    England shafted by the officials in this tournament.

    Denied us victory against the Aussies.

    Now this.

    Officials cost us 111 runs :D ?

    It's a view.
    James Taylor was in form that match, he would have got us home.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Boycott: 'Not going to get them. No, he' gone in the head'
    Broad hits the next ball for six.

    My granny could have hit that ball for 6.
  • Geoffrey Boycott on Broad "He's gone in the head"

    Who knew Boycott was such an authority on mental health?!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Banglas choking it up here.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What's particularly odd about Sally Keeble's decision to refuse money from Tony Blair is that she happily served as a minister in his government until 2003, when she was reshuffled out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Pulpstar said:

    Butler's set us up nicely here. Should be able to see this out.

    Never in doubt.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Jesus Christ! Bangladesh are going to lose this!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @Indigo

    If he gets into power, he may backslide on the commitment...

    So, Ed's just saying things because they're convenient at the time.

    How often do you think he's state things that he doesn't actually believe?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Jesus Christ! Bangladesh are going to lose this!

    10 or 11 an over isn't really all that much to get near the end of a match against an average bowling attack.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Indigo said:

    Populus

    Con 32 (+1) Lab 33 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 6 (+1)

    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_09-03-2015_BPC.pdf

    Debate-gate outrage....oh...
    You think 32% is a good score for the Tories?

    Come off it, it's a MoE movement as have just about all Tory movements since Christmas.
    Yes I know..just saying if the Tory PBs are cracking open the
    bubbly at a poll rating of 32% after 5 months of non stop media
    Mili bashing and "good" economic news propoganda..they must
    be even more desperate than.I thought

    As the I says senior Tories are in despair at their poll ratings
    and turning on Crosby for his negative strategy

    Yes the Tories must be in deep despair now and civil war breaking out in the Tory ranks and blue on blue. The whole thing is a complete shambles. Crosby under fire maybe he will be ousted for such terrible performances. Poll ratings crashing through the floor with Labour streets ahead.


    ............according to that very long term, staunchly right wing news paper ......... The I.

    I think I see a slight issue with your logic I mean talk about being naive..... Blimey!
  • antifrank said:

    What's particularly odd about Sally Keeble's decision to refuse money from Tony Blair is that she happily served as a minister in his government until 2003, when she was reshuffled out.

    I've been speaking to a Labour chap this morning.

    The people who refused the Blair money are going to look so principled and honourable were the Chilcot report to leak during the election campaign.
This discussion has been closed.