To less sober matters. I am pondering tonight's YouGov.
Will Lab retain the lead they achieved on Thursday or will we revert back to a Tie or even a Con lead?
Most difficult YG prediction of the week coming up...
I assume no other polls are expected tonight (obviously this close to the election we could get polls from various unexpected quarters)
I expect very bad polls for Con tonight.
The second jobs issue looked bad and it was then compounded by a disastrous BBC1 Question Time - Q1 Immigration, Q2 Second Jobs and then worst of all someone in the audience with very good communication skills said they would never vote Con again due to MPs getting a 10% pay rise - it was strongly implied that this had been done by the Conservatives. Shapps said no but far, far too quickly and not clearly enough for the TV audience to register. It was the single most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in the last few years.
Con have definitely gone backwards this week.
I really don't think enough people watch Question Time to make any difference to national voting intention opinion polls...
It's almost 3m - the vast majority of whom will vote. And they will speak to their partners, parents, children, friends etc.
I realise it's only one programme and most things go in one ear and out the other. But even so this was so unbelievably toxic that it will have done significant damage.
What is shocking is that Shapps handled it so badly - to just contradict the audience member in about 6 words spoken almost under his breath in 3 seconds was absolutely hopeless. He should have made it very, very clear that what had been said was not true and he simply didn't do so.
The polls tonight could be poor but not because of anything on question time. Even if 3m were watching housecleaning they all
1. Listened 2. Agreed with your view. 3. Completed a YG/ Opinium on-line poll 4. Have stopped voting Tory as a result.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
It's a really great company - it's first generation products are already on the market in China (for swine FMD). We are about to launch an immunocastration product for boars as well.
On the human side we've focused on Alzheimer's and HIV rather than influenza, primarily because the tender prices in flu are so low that the returns really just don't work.
Company is called united biomedical if you want to look.
Quick look; from my nowadays OOD knowledge the Alzheimers product seems as though it might be very promising.World wide, IIRC, preventing amyloid chain formation seems to offer hope.
I will be feeling very very smug if it is. It's the largest single investment that I've persuaded my family to make, so success would give them much more confidence to back my ideas in future. I'm reasonably confident that I'll make them 5-6x, if I am really lucky it'll be north of 10x.
The drug industry has poured tens of billions down the drain pursuing the Amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimers disease... the "tangles" camp are possibly pursuing a more fruitful path but the jackpot will only be hit financially and clinically when tests are available to pick up early brain changes in 50 year olds and drugs emerge to slow, halt or reverse the pathological process. Hope the company other products have better prospects.
I suspect that a combination of both pathways will be needed. Is it now possible to scan live brains and identify the developing “tangles”? Genuine question; when I was last involved with sort of thing a post-mortem was needed!
Modern imaging does constantly increase resolution, so may well be feasible by the time the drug is through phase III.
While multi-infarct dementia is often casually referred to as Alzheimers potentially the market for true alzheimers is vast, and the potential benefit to the world is incalcuable.
The real answer to much of the social care/ chronic ill health issue will come from big pharma. The rest of us are chasing the horse long after it has bolted.
I hope Charles has a very good profit out of a very successful drug, and can afford the Mansion tax for the whole of Belgravia!
Sadly, after tax, my share won't even buy a 1 bedroom flat in Belgravia, let alone the whole of it! My friend, who owns the company, already has about 18m sq foot in Ohio, Virginia and Georgia, so doubt Belgravia would appeal to him.
Cartoonists -the frontline of the US and its allies trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war. You must be so proud.
Wait: so cartoon about the Prophet Mohammed = free speech. Cartoon about the Profit Putin = warmongering?
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Germany is the (large) European country with the best relations with Russia, so I'm not sure.
I think the more interesting medium term question is whether Putin can survive oil at sub $60 for a sustained period of time.
Look down the list of the nine largest oil exporters in the world - Saudi, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Qatar and even Angola - you see only one (Iraq) where there has been serious political upheaval in the last decade. Now, when oil was last cheap ('85-'99), we saw revolutions, wars and the like in Russia, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola. Resource extracting countries with autocratic leaders can buy off their populations when prices are high. When the economy is in recession, and government spending is being cut, then the likelihood of civil unrest increases (and/or wars to whip up patriotic fervour).
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
We are only discussing it because she isn't standing anywhere!
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
I said on here back in 2013 that Diana James would not be standing in Eastleigh again and would be happy instead to trough it as an MEP for the next few years and not spend 2 years fighting an unwinnable seat .
Cartoonists -the frontline of the US and its allies trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war. You must be so proud.
Wait: so cartoon about the Prophet Mohammed = free speech. Cartoon about the Profit Putin = warmongering?
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Not as along as Putin is in charge. I think anyone seeking to forge closer ties with Russia under his rule will get their fingers burnt.
You could say the same about Stalin or Alexander I. Historically we've always put caution and principle aside if it's required to stand up to the Coninental hegemon and Russia is now sort of back to it's borders of 250 years ago so perhaps less immediately threatening
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
We are only discussing it because she isn't standing anywhere!
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
I said on here back in 2013 that Diana James would not be standing in Eastleigh again and would be happy instead to trough it as an MEP for the next few years and not spend 2 years fighting an unwinnable seat .
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
We are only discussing it because she isn't standing anywhere!
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
She could have given additional information on the sign, eg:
"Yes, this sign is stupid but your local elected representatives insisted I put it up."
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
Cartoonists -the frontline of the US and its allies trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war. You must be so proud.
Wait: so cartoon about the Prophet Mohammed = free speech. Cartoon about the Profit Putin = warmongering?
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Germany is the (large) European country with the best relations with Russia, so I'm not sure.
I think the more interesting medium term question is whether Putin can survive oil at sub $60 for a sustained period of time.
Look down the list of the nine largest oil exporters in the world - Saudi, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Qatar and even Angola - you see only one (Iraq) where there has been serious political upheaval in the last decade. Now, when oil was last cheap ('85-'99), we saw revolutions, wars and the like in Russia, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola. Resource extracting countries with autocratic leaders can buy off their populations when prices are high. When the economy is in recession, and government spending is being cut, then the likelihood of civil unrest increases (and/or wars to whip up patriotic fervour).
I have no problem with your assessment of what $60 a barrel means. However give it 20 years when the germans want to be a bit forceful with their views and a poorer Russia needs friends, who knows ?
Cartoonists -the frontline of the US and its allies trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war. You must be so proud.
Wait: so cartoon about the Prophet Mohammed = free speech. Cartoon about the Profit Putin = warmongering?
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Not as along as Putin is in charge. I think anyone seeking to forge closer ties with Russia under his rule will get their fingers burnt.
You could say the same about Stalin or Alexander I. Historically we've always put caution and principle aside if it's required to stand up to the Coninental hegemon and Russia is now sort of back to it's borders of 250 years ago so perhaps less immediately threatening
I think that was when there was a European military hegemon - and one with territorial ambitions.
What's the threat to us from the EU? It is - like Japan - an aged area, in long-term decline. But it shows no militarism. Army sizes are a fraction of where they were; and governments are financially incapable of growing them.
Cartoonists -the frontline of the US and its allies trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war. You must be so proud.
Given the choice of describing Marf or Putin as the person trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war, I think I would have chosen Putin myself.
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
We are only discussing it because she isn't standing anywhere!
@DavidL Returning home from a shift and finding the cupboard bare, I grabbed a pizza from the local convenience store. Only after eating the disgusting thing (hunger is good kitchen) I checked the ingredients...... I have never dared to find out what the hell "cheese substitute" is, a Blackadder Goes Forth episode rears it's head when I try.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
She could have given additional information on the sign, eg:
"Yes, this sign is stupid but your local elected representatives insisted I put it up."
Only if she wants inspections from the Food Standards bureaucrats every day until they find something in the fridge a day after its best before date.
To less sober matters. I am pondering tonight's YouGov.
Will Lab retain the lead they achieved on Thursday or will we revert back to a Tie or even a Con lead?
Most difficult YG prediction of the week coming up...
I assume no other polls are expected tonight (obviously this close to the election we could get polls from various unexpected quarters)
I expect very bad polls for Con tonight.
The second jobs issue looked bad and it was then compounded by a disastrous BBC1 Question Time - Q1 Immigration, Q2 Second Jobs and then worst of all someone in the audience with very good communication skills said they would never vote Con again due to MPs getting a 10% pay rise - it was strongly implied that this had been done by the Conservatives. Shapps said no but far, far too quickly and not clearly enough for the TV audience to register. It was the single most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in the last few years.
Con have definitely gone backwards this week.
I really don't think enough people watch Question Time to make any difference to national voting intention opinion polls...
It's almost 3m - the vast majority of whom will vote. And they will speak to their partners, parents, children, friends etc.
I realise it's only one programme and most things go in one ear and out the other. But even so this was so unbelievably toxic that it will have done significant damage.
What is shocking is that Shapps handled it so badly - to just contradict the audience member in about 6 words spoken almost under his breath in 3 seconds was absolutely hopeless. He should have made it very, very clear that what had been said was not true and he simply didn't do so.
The polls tonight could be poor but not because of anything on question time. Even if 3m were watching housecleaning they all
1. Listened 2. Agreed with your view. 3. Completed a YG/ Opinium on-line poll 4. Have stopped voting Tory as a result.
Utter fantasy.
Well if you think it's good publicity for 3 million people to be told that Conservative MPs have awarded themselves a 10% pay rise whilst imposing austerity on everyone else then jolly good.
Of course it won't cause everyone to change their vote - the question is does it move the odd person at the margin - and in my view it may well.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
Coming tonight will be the now weekly Opinium poll which week had CON 2% ahead
Oooooooooo.... What with this news and the news that Jacks ARSE will be making a rare weekend appearance I think I might faint with excitement.
On a point of clarity before you reach for the smelling salts might I advise you and the wider PB cognoscenti that from next week through to election day my ARSE will be on view on each Tuesday and Saturday for the admiration, enlightenment and pleasure of its' aficionados.
Jack W - will there be a regular time for this - there are so many posts on here now that it takes an enormous amount of time having to go through entire threads.
Cartoonists -the frontline of the US and its allies trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war. You must be so proud.
Wait: so cartoon about the Prophet Mohammed = free speech. Cartoon about the Profit Putin = warmongering?
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Not as along as Putin is in charge. I think anyone seeking to forge closer ties with Russia under his rule will get their fingers burnt.
You could say the same about Stalin or Alexander I. Historically we've always put caution and principle aside if it's required to stand up to the Coninental hegemon and Russia is now sort of back to it's borders of 250 years ago so perhaps less immediately threatening
I think that was when there was a European military hegemon - and one with territorial ambitions.
What's the threat to us from the EU? It is - like Japan - an aged area, in long-term decline. But it shows no militarism. Army sizes are a fraction of where they were; and governments are financially incapable of growing them.
And what does Russia have to offer us, anyway?
Tanks. :-)
But the European threat if there is one will be more about the application of soft power rather than military. The current Eurozone crisis has been all about soft power.
Coming tonight will be the now weekly Opinium poll which week had CON 2% ahead
Oooooooooo.... What with this news and the news that Jacks ARSE will be making a rare weekend appearance I think I might faint with excitement.
On a point of clarity before you reach for the smelling salts might I advise you and the wider PB cognoscenti that from next week through to election day my ARSE will be on view on each Tuesday and Saturday for the admiration, enlightenment and pleasure of its' aficionados.
Jack W - will there be a regular time for this - there are so many posts on here now that it takes an enormous amount of time having to go through entire threads.
9:00am unless previously notified.
Oh, nice and early. That won't impact you being passed out blotto by 2pm anyway...
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Addressing your point at more length, we've become so decadent and used to the post-Cold War lull and describing the EU as ZER NASTY EUSSR KOMISSAR REICH, we've forgotten how to react when genuine thugs appear. Germany is currently peaceful, mercantile, useless at fighting, and so ashamed of WWII it's willing to give billions of Euros to Greeks in return for insults. It's taken us decades to make it that way. Throwing away Germany to curry favour with Russia will not gain us an ally, it'll lose us one.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
Coming tonight will be the now weekly Opinium poll which week had CON 2% ahead
Oooooooooo.... What with this news and the news that Jacks ARSE will be making a rare weekend appearance I think I might faint with excitement.
On a point of clarity before you reach for the smelling salts might I advise you and the wider PB cognoscenti that from next week through to election day my ARSE will be on view on each Tuesday and Saturday for the admiration, enlightenment and pleasure of its' aficionados.
Jack W - will there be a regular time for this - there are so many posts on here now that it takes an enormous amount of time having to go through entire threads.
9:00am unless previously notified.
Oh, nice and early. That won't impact you being passed out blotto by 2pm anyway...
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
Wonder why Diane James quit? Maybe it really was "personal reasons" as she just gave a speech at the UKIP spring conference.
Maybe she will be elevated to mythical status on here now? I seem to remember she was the butt of all jokes after she appeared on This Week and said UKIP could win 40 odd seats
I think Diane James could have won Eastleigh, if she'd stood there. Without her, it'll probably a LibDem hold.
Yes surprising she wasn't going to stand there.. I don't know why.
I like her, unlike the PBers who slagged her off after she appeared on This Week, I think she is quite good. Hope she hasn't left UKIP and this is just a temporary thing
She didn't stand in Eastleigh because she knew she wouldn't win it. I believe she's standing in Andover, where she obviously thinks she's got a better chance.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
I’m sure I read somewhere about someone making cheese from their breast-milk but I can’t be bothered to Google and find it.
IIRC, too, don’t some Central Asian peoples make mares-milk cheese?
But the European threat if there is one will be more about the application of soft power rather than military. The current Eurozone crisis has been all about soft power.
I guess it all depends on who'll be in the Kremlin, post Putin, and the importance of Russian oil and gas.
But I think the EU is a little bit like Japan: getting older and poorer and gradually less relevant. I just don't buy greying countries will be throwing their weight around that much - except to ensure supplies of valium, xanax and ambien are kept up.
We should have excellent relations with them... but remember that we need to look beyond Europe.
To less sober matters. I am pondering tonight's YouGov.
Will Lab retain the lead they achieved on Thursday or will we revert back to a Tie or even a Con lead?
Most difficult YG prediction of the week coming up...
I assume no other polls are expected tonight (obviously this close to the election we could get polls from various unexpected quarters)
I expect very bad polls for Con tonight.
The second jobs issue looked bad and it was then compounded by a disastrous BBC1 Question Time - Q1 Immigration, Q2 Second Jobs and then worst of all someone in the audience with very good communication skills said they would never vote Con again due to MPs getting a 10% pay rise - it was strongly implied that this had been done by the Conservatives. Shapps said no but far, far too quickly and not clearly enough for the TV audience to register. It was the single most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in the last few years.
Con have definitely gone backwards this week.
I really don't think enough people watch Question Time to make any difference to national voting intention opinion polls...
It's almost 3m - the vast majority of whom will vote. And they will speak to their partners, parents, children, friends etc.
I realise it's only one programme and most things go in one ear and out the other. But even so this was so unbelievably toxic that it will have done significant damage.
What is shocking is that Shapps handled it so badly - to just contradict the audience member in about 6 words spoken almost under his breath in 3 seconds was absolutely hopeless. He should have made it very, very clear that what had been said was not true and he simply didn't do so.
The polls tonight could be poor but not because of anything on question time. Even if 3m were watching housecleaning they all
1. Listened 2. Agreed with your view. 3. Completed a YG/ Opinium on-line poll 4. Have stopped voting Tory as a result.
Utter fantasy.
Well if you think it's good publicity for 3 million people to be told that Conservative MPs have awarded themselves a 10% pay rise whilst imposing austerity on everyone else then jolly good.
Of course it won't cause everyone to change their vote - the question is does it move the odd person at the margin - and in my view it may well.
Anyway we'll see the polls tonight.
Is that what happened? Didnt Parliament in a panic reaction to the expenses scandal vote to hand over decisions about their pay and expenses to an independent third party?
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
Jackie Doyle-Price @JackieDP 2h 2 hours ago So @Tim_Aker thinks Thurrock is a fight between Labour & ukip. It is-for second place. Conservatives winning here
Jackie Doyle-Price @JackieDP Feb 25 Election forecast now placing Conservatives 4% ahead in Thurrock. Only I can defeat UKIP
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Addressing your point at more length, we've become so decadent and used to the post-Cold War lull and describing the EU as ZER NASTY EUSSR KOMISSAR REICH, we've forgotten how to react when genuine thugs appear. Germany is currently peaceful, mercantile, useless at fighting, and so ashamed of WWII it's willing to give billions of Euros to Greeks in return for insults. It's taken us decades to make it that way. Throwing away Germany to curry favour with Russia will not gain us an ally, it'll lose us one.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
You appear to think I'm advocating allying with Putin, I'm not. However while your analysis of Germany I largely go along with, as things stand I can't see the UK ever being in the situation where Germany will accommodate the UK at the expense of France. As the EU progresses and we get left on the sidelines there will increasingly be a need to have other options, and frankly there aren't that many.
Its really odd because she just made a good speech in the UKIP conference today.
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman 5h5 hours ago Diane James giving a speech that's much better than the sort of thing many junior ministers produce #UKIPSpring
Clearly something happened in those 4 hours between her speech and her decision to withdraw.
I'm guessing that being an MEP already she didn;t stand in Eastleigh because she didn't want to be an MP as well. So she stood somewhere unwinnable (which is a common enough thing to do)
Issues within the local party have been alluded to, on the other hand being Mischievous of Micheldever perhaps she got wind of a poll that showed she would win the seat so decided to let someone who dosent have an MEP job as well to do have a crack....
Cartoonists -the frontline of the US and its allies trying to undermine sovereign nations and push us into another world war. You must be so proud.
Wait: so cartoon about the Prophet Mohammed = free speech. Cartoon about the Profit Putin = warmongering?
You could extend this analogy. Cartoon on the Prophet Mohammad and other prophets = free speech.
In Austria, questioning the holocaust is a criminal offence.*
* I actually agree with the law . This stops nutters like that historian and others writing anti semitic stuff.
What an extraordinary thing to support. To question an historical event, a criminal offence? Now inciting people to violence by claiming it didnt happen, i could see that as incitement to violence has long been a prohibition on the exercise of free speech and expression.
But to just question? To just out words on a piece of paper that say something you dont like, and then publish it?
Is there any other thought that you think should be a criminal offence? Questioning the sustainability of a free at the point of use health service, maybe? That the climate might be changing because it is always changing and the evidence to suggest we are the primary reason for doing so is spurious at best? What about 'Newcastle United have an excellent chance at winning the premier league'?
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Addressing your point at more length, we've become so decadent and used to the post-Cold War lull and describing the EU as ZER NASTY EUSSR KOMISSAR REICH, we've forgotten how to react when genuine thugs appear. Germany is currently peaceful, mercantile, useless at fighting, and so ashamed of WWII it's willing to give billions of Euros to Greeks in return for insults. It's taken us decades to make it that way. Throwing away Germany to curry favour with Russia will not gain us an ally, it'll lose us one.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
You appear to think I'm advocating allying with Putin, I'm not. However while your analysis of Germany I largely go along with, as things stand I can't see the UK ever being in the situation where Germany will accommodate the UK at the expense of France. As the EU progresses and we get left on the sidelines there will increasingly be a need to have other options, and frankly there aren't that many.
The United States? Old friends of ours, you know.
Of course, LuckyGuy and FalseFlag will be unhappy, but in general...
How were the original Alanbrooke's relations with his American counterparts?
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
It really is not that kind of cheese shop.
Ukip customers are banned ?!?
Surely kippers would have to be banned, I can just imagine the rants the poor Fromager has to fortify himself against:
"Not having any of that suspect Roquefort, Gruyere or Brie. Bloody immigrant cheeses coming over here taking the place of working class British cheeses..."
...If Navalny who's a small fish can be under house arrest, why not Nemtsov?
His murder is very unusual, nobody had got murdered that close to the Kremlin before, though there was an attempt on Brezhnev in 1969...
Speedy, Navalny really isn't a 'small fish' - he's very respected and admired as one of the most courageous and vocal opponents of Putin. His blog is an extraordinary catalogue of injustice, but also has a dark sense of humour about the Kafkaesque moments he has experienced himself, with photos, films, etc. I've followed it for years.
Nemtsov and Navalny - they are remarkable men.
I think the murder last night was planned so that the Kremlin would loom large in all the news stories. It was an act of propoganda as well as a murder.
(However it seems that if a commenter writes something defamatory and OGH does not remove it, OGH can be done for libel as "publisher")
With twitter, tweeters are in the position of OGH not the commenter, I presume this is because they have followers who receive all their tweets so are more analagous to a blogger than a commenter.
Its all rather complex, however the recent libel law reforms in the defamation act 2013 apparently make it harder to sue for Libel due to the new "serious harm threshold"
For example Before 2013 if I wrote in a blog that MalcolmG was a Turnip, he could sue me for libel because I am wrong and he is not a turnip (at least I think I'm wrong). Now he has to demonstrate that me calling him a Turnip caused serious harm to him or his finances.
I believe also that he would only have a year after I called him a Turnip to sue, as would be the case if I called him a turnip in a book. Prior to 2013 the libel was deemed to be republished every time someone clicked on it so the one year clock was reset.
To less sober matters. I am pondering tonight's YouGov.
Will Lab retain the lead they achieved on Thursday or will we revert back to a Tie or even a Con lead?
Most difficult YG prediction of the week coming up...
I assume no other polls are expected tonight (obviously this close to the election we could get polls from various unexpected quarters)
I expect very bad polls for Con tonight.
The second jobs issue looked bad and it was then compounded by a disastrous BBC1 Question Time - Q1 Immigration, Q2 Second Jobs and then worst of all someone in the audience with very good communication skills said they would never vote Con again due to MPs getting a 10% pay rise - it was strongly implied that this had been done by the Conservatives. Shapps said no but far, far too quickly and not clearly enough for the TV audience to register. It was the single most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in the last few years.
Con have definitely gone backwards this week.
I really don't think enough people watch Question Time to make any difference to national voting intention opinion polls...
It's almost 3m - the vast majority of whom will vote. And they will speak to their partners, parents, children, friends etc.
I realise it's only one programme and most things go in one ear and out the other. But even so this was so unbelievably toxic that it will have done significant damage.
What is shocking is that Shapps handled it so badly - to just contradict the audience member in about 6 words spoken almost under his breath in 3 seconds was absolutely hopeless. He should have made it very, very clear that what had been said was not true and he simply didn't do so.
The polls tonight could be poor but not because of anything on question time. Even if 3m were watching housecleaning they all
1. Listened 2. Agreed with your view. 3. Completed a YG/ Opinium on-line poll 4. Have stopped voting Tory as a result.
Utter fantasy.
Well if you think it's good publicity for 3 million people to be told that Conservative MPs have awarded themselves a 10% pay rise whilst imposing austerity on everyone else then jolly good.
Of course it won't cause everyone to change their vote - the question is does it move the odd person at the margin - and in my view it may well.
Anyway we'll see the polls tonight.
Yes - but whatever they say will hardly prove your hypothesis.
Its really odd because she just made a good speech in the UKIP conference today.
Isabel Hardman @IsabelHardman 5h5 hours ago Diane James giving a speech that's much better than the sort of thing many junior ministers produce #UKIPSpring
Clearly something happened in those 4 hours between her speech and her decision to withdraw.
I'm guessing that being an MEP already she didn;t stand in Eastleigh because she didn't want to be an MP as well. So she stood somewhere unwinnable (which is a common enough thing to do)
Issues within the local party have been alluded to, on the other hand being Mischievous of Micheldever perhaps she got wind of a poll that showed she would win the seat so decided to let someone who dosent have an MEP job as well to do have a crack....
What was really interesting, in the local newspaper’s website (http://www.andoverandvillages.co.uk/andover-news-in-andover-and-villages) were the remarks of the local UKIP County Councillor "Hampshire County Councillor, Tony Hooke, quit UKIP last week, slating the party as 'shallow' and branding members as 'dirty old men in macs’."
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Addressing your point at more length, we've become so decadent and used to the post-Cold War lull and describing the EU as ZER NASTY EUSSR KOMISSAR REICH, we've forgotten how to react when genuine thugs appear. Germany is currently peaceful, mercantile, useless at fighting, and so ashamed of WWII it's willing to give billions of Euros to Greeks in return for insults. It's taken us decades to make it that way. Throwing away Germany to curry favour with Russia will not gain us an ally, it'll lose us one.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
You appear to think I'm advocating allying with Putin, I'm not. However while your analysis of Germany I largely go along with, as things stand I can't see the UK ever being in the situation where Germany will accommodate the UK at the expense of France. As the EU progresses and we get left on the sidelines there will increasingly be a need to have other options, and frankly there aren't that many.
The United States? Old friends of ours, you know.
Of course, LuckyGuy and FalseFlag will be unhappy, but in general...
How were the original Alanbrooke's relations with his American counterparts?
On paper yes, but firstly that pre-supposes the US are a reliable ally, my namesake watched them rip the British Empire apart because they could. Secondly as your post on Europe's prospects show the US is more likley to shift its attention to Asia. with all the consequences that has. Over time we'll simply slip down the pecking orde of their interests, then what ?
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
It really is not that kind of cheese shop.
Ukip customers are banned ?!?
Surely kippers would have to be banned, I can just imagine the rants the poor Fromager has to fortify himself against:
"Not having any of that suspect Roquefort, Gruyere or Brie. Bloody immigrant cheeses coming over here taking the place of working class British cheeses..."
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Addressing your point at more length, we've become so decadent and used to the post-Cold War lull and describing the EU as ZER NASTY EUSSR KOMISSAR REICH, we've forgotten how to react when genuine thugs appear. Germany is currently peaceful, mercantile, useless at fighting, and so ashamed of WWII it's willing to give billions of Euros to Greeks in return for insults. It's taken us decades to make it that way. Throwing away Germany to curry favour with Russia will not gain us an ally, it'll lose us one.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
You appear to think I'm advocating allying with Putin, I'm not. However while your analysis of Germany I largely go along with, as things stand I can't see the UK ever being in the situation where Germany will accommodate the UK at the expense of France. As the EU progresses and we get left on the sidelines there will increasingly be a need to have other options, and frankly there aren't that many.
The United States? Old friends of ours, you know.
Of course, LuckyGuy and FalseFlag will be unhappy, but in general...
How were the original Alanbrooke's relations with his American counterparts?
On paper yes, but firstly that pre-supposes the US are a reliable ally, my namesake watched them rip the British Empire apart because they could. Secondly as your post on Europe's prospects show the US is more likley to shift its attention to Asia. with all the consequences that has. Over time we'll simply slip down the pecking orde of their interests, then what ?
We're 60m people of substantial, but relatively declining, wealth on an island in the Eastern Atlantic.
We're kidding ourselves if we think we're going to be pre-eminent in a world of 10 billion people.
@Alanbrooke They stopped being best buddies when the UK voted Labour into power after the war. They "shafted" the population and government by way of retaliation.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
It really is not that kind of cheese shop.
Ukip customers are banned ?!?
Surely kippers would have to be banned, I can just imagine the rants the poor Fromager has to fortify himself against:
"Not having any of that suspect Roquefort, Gruyere or Brie. Bloody immigrant cheeses coming over here taking the place of working class British cheeses..."
Evening Standard @standardnews 54s55 seconds ago BBC political editor Nick Robinson undergoing treatment for tumour on his lung http://bit.ly/1zqGLhn
How awful. Surely he'd be a non-smoker too?
I see it's being reported as a carcinoid tumour, which is a neuroendorcine (hormone system) tumour. That would not be smoking related.
This was the kind of cancer the late snooker player Paul Hunter had, though in his case he had a very aggressive type. Usually NET's are slow growing and can be managed quite well as a long term condition.
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Addressing your point at more length, we've become so decadent and used to the post-Cold War lull and describing the EU as ZER NASTY EUSSR KOMISSAR REICH, we've forgotten how to react when genuine thugs appear. Germany is currently peaceful, mercantile, useless at fighting, and so ashamed of WWII it's willing to give billions of Euros to Greeks in return for insults. It's taken us decades to make it that way. Throwing away Germany to curry favour with Russia will not gain us an ally, it'll lose us one.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
You appear to think I'm advocating allying with Putin, I'm not. However while your analysis of Germany I largely go along with, as things stand I can't see the UK ever being in the situation where Germany will accommodate the UK at the expense of France. As the EU progresses and we get left on the sidelines there will increasingly be a need to have other options, and frankly there aren't that many.
The United States? Old friends of ours, you know.
Of course, LuckyGuy and FalseFlag will be unhappy, but in general...
How were the original Alanbrooke's relations with his American counterparts?
On paper yes, but firstly that pre-supposes the US are a reliable ally, my namesake watched them rip the British Empire apart because they could. Secondly as your post on Europe's prospects show the US is more likley to shift its attention to Asia. with all the consequences that has. Over time we'll simply slip down the pecking orde of their interests, then what ?
We're 60m people of substantial, but relatively declining, wealth on an island in the Eastern Atlantic.
We're kidding ourselves if we think we're going to be pre-eminent in a world of 10 billion people.
I don't dispute that, we'll be looking for a face saving way finding our new place as a mid-size power. But that again says that we'll find oursleves in new territory and the tectonic plates of diplomacy will also have to change.
@Alanbrooke They stopped being best buddies when the UK voted Labour into power after the war. They "shafted" the population and government by way of retaliation.
you missed out Thatcher, say three NHSs and two Hail Milibands.
Yes - but whatever they say will hardly prove your hypothesis.
Of course they won't prove my hypothesis - it is blindingly obvious that it is never possible to prove cause and effect.
All I am saying is that, in my view, Con has had a very, very bad week - and, all things being equal, I would not expect good polls for them tonight or in the next few days.
But of course anything could happen in a small number of polls - whatever the true underlying position may be.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted." Her new sign gives written warning: "All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
No requirement as to the origin of the milk; cows, goats, buffalo or sheep?
I think the consumer has a right to know!
What about milk from women publically and ostentatiously breast feeding for the benefit of Ukip customers ?!?
It really is not that kind of cheese shop.
Ukip customers are banned ?!?
Surely kippers would have to be banned, I can just imagine the rants the poor Fromager has to fortify himself against:
"Not having any of that suspect Roquefort, Gruyere or Brie. Bloody immigrant cheeses coming over here taking the place of working class British cheeses..."
As an aside I do sometimes wonder if we ditch the EU if we'll end up on better terms with Russia as a balance to Germany. Historically we've been there several times before despite the huge differences in outlook.
Addressing your point at more length, we've become so decadent and used to the post-Cold War lull and describing the EU as ZER NASTY EUSSR KOMISSAR REICH, we've forgotten how to react when genuine thugs appear. Germany is currently peaceful, mercantile, useless at fighting, and so ashamed of WWII it's willing to give billions of Euros to Greeks in return for insults. It's taken us decades to make it that way. Throwing away Germany to curry favour with Russia will not gain us an ally, it'll lose us one.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
You appear to think I'm advocating allying with Putin, I'm not. However while your analysis of Germany I largely go along with, as things stand I can't see the UK ever being in the situation where Germany will accommodate the UK at the expense of France. As the EU progresses and we get left on the sidelines there will increasingly be a need to have other options, and frankly there aren't that many.
The United States? Old friends of ours, you know.
Of course, LuckyGuy and FalseFlag will be unhappy, but in general...
How were the original Alanbrooke's relations with his American counterparts?
On paper yes, but firstly that pre-supposes the US are a reliable ally, my namesake watched them rip the British Empire apart because they could. Secondly as your post on Europe's prospects show the US is more likley to shift its attention to Asia. with all the consequences that has. Over time we'll simply slip down the pecking orde of their interests, then what ?
We're 60m people of substantial, but relatively declining, wealth on an island in the Eastern Atlantic.
We're kidding ourselves if we think we're going to be pre-eminent in a world of 10 billion people.
In 1850 we had a population of 17m in a world of 1.3 billion people and Britain conquered a quarter of the world. Population is just one of the many factors of power for a country. To simplify things the power of a country can be derived from 4 factors: 1. Technology 2. Economy 3. Military 4. Trade.
Throughout history those are the main factors of state power.
A small country can be extremely powerful if it's vastly ahead of it's neighbors in those categories, a prime example today is Israel.
@Alanbrooke Before Thatchers time in politics, so I claim dispensation as an automatic right.
Nonsense, Smarmy EVERYTHINGS Thacthers fault from the Irish potato famine , the cover up at Roswell and global warming.( she had an electric fire you know )
You'll never make a lefty if you take that attitude.
A teeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiibbbbbbbbbllllllllleeeeeee night for the Tories!
Here is my prediction
UKIP 25 Lab 24 Tory 21 Green 32
Well that would get everyone talking... Sunil wouldn't know his ELBOW from Jack's ARSE, nevermind what it would do to EDICIPM vs EMWNBPM not to mention Rod's Monte Carlo stimulations...
Is that what happened? Didnt Parliament in a panic reaction to the expenses scandal vote to hand over decisions about their pay and expenses to an independent third party?
Of course it didn't happen - what you say is correct - and the 3rd party's 10% recommendation hasn't even been implemented yet.
My post was about what 3m people have heard - and many will now think - not what actually happened.
But the European threat if there is one will be more about the application of soft power rather than military. The current Eurozone crisis has been all about soft power.
I guess it all depends on who'll be in the Kremlin, post Putin, and the importance of Russian oil and gas.
But I think the EU is a little bit like Japan: getting older and poorer and gradually less relevant. I just don't buy greying countries will be throwing their weight around that much - except to ensure supplies of valium, xanax and ambien are kept up.
We should have excellent relations with them... but remember that we need to look beyond Europe.
But the European threat if there is one will be more about the application of soft power rather than military. The current Eurozone crisis has been all about soft power.
I guess it all depends on who'll be in the Kremlin, post Putin, and the importance of Russian oil and gas.
But I think the EU is a little bit like Japan: getting older and poorer and gradually less relevant. I just don't buy greying countries will be throwing their weight around that much - except to ensure supplies of valium, xanax and ambien are kept up.
We should have excellent relations with them... but remember that we need to look beyond Europe.
I thought Putin was surrounded by ex security service types, a lot of uncompromising individuals, one of whom would succeed him and likely be worse than Putin.
Had our largest canvass day yet today - 7 rounds (over 2000 people, though obviously not all in). Nothing special to report, though - can't say that either student fees or pensions were salient, even though two of the rounds were in an upper middle class area where you might have expected both to feature. A couple of LibDems this time and not much UKIP, but mostly the usual patterns: Tories are Tory, Labour are Labour, and 2010 LibDems mostly Labour. You Gov prediction: tie, +/-2.
@Alanbrooke There are a lot of things I do blame her for, but she is by no means the sole cause of all our ills. She had a fair point with regard to the unions. The way she chose to tackle it ripped the Country apart.
Is that what happened? Didnt Parliament in a panic reaction to the expenses scandal vote to hand over decisions about their pay and expenses to an independent third party?
Of course it didn't happen - what you say is correct - and the 3rd party's 10% recommendation hasn't even been implemented yet.
My post was about what 3m people have heard - and many will now think - not what actually happened.
You need to get out more if you think that 3m Newsnight watchers are anywhere near representative of Jo public. The vast majority of those watching would have to be already pretty decided in their political views. Those who think MPs are a bunch of thieving, skiving b******s are generally not the types who like watching Newsnight.
@Alanbrooke There are a lot of things I do blame her for, but she is by no means the sole cause of all our ills. She had a fair point with regard to the unions. The way she chose to tackle it ripped the Country apart.
And her party has been suffering fron it ever since.
I expect this was a CIA plot. Or a suicide. Or the unfortunate consequence of an unusually heavy iron shower.
But you're the one peddling the tinfoil conspiracy theory here. I'm saying someone has been killed, should we not let the authorities try to do their job before assigning blame. Amazing how the tinfoiliest of batshit no-evidence lunatic conspiracies are allowable - as long as they refer to 'regimes' like 'Assad's' and 'Putin's' that we've decided we don't like.
Evening Standard @standardnews 54s55 seconds ago BBC political editor Nick Robinson undergoing treatment for tumour on his lung http://bit.ly/1zqGLhn
How awful. Surely he'd be a non-smoker too?
I see it's being reported as a carcinoid tumour, which is a neuroendorcine (hormone system) tumour. That would not be smoking related.
This was the kind of cancer the late snooker player Paul Hunter had, though in his case he had a very aggressive type. Usually NET's are slow growing and can be managed quite well as a long term condition.
Best wishes to Nick.
Good wishes yes. I had an NHS letter the other day about a regular bowel cancer test - some do not bother but if people get them they should take advantage.
Britain's world position is worsening, as with the USA with the exception of trade, but improving in Europe with the exception of trade. Britain can be one of the big 3 european powers, but it's weighted down by worsening trade figures with the EU, that is why in my opinion Britain's position will be better if it's outside the imploding EU structure.
Evening Standard @standardnews 54s55 seconds ago BBC political editor Nick Robinson undergoing treatment for tumour on his lung http://bit.ly/1zqGLhn
How awful. Surely he'd be a non-smoker too?
I see it's being reported as a carcinoid tumour, which is a neuroendorcine (hormone system) tumour. That would not be smoking related.
This was the kind of cancer the late snooker player Paul Hunter had, though in his case he had a very aggressive type. Usually NET's are slow growing and can be managed quite well as a long term condition.
Best wishes to Nick.
Good wishes yes. I had an NHS letter the other day about a regular bowel cancer test - some do not bother but if people get them they should take advantage.
I know someone who had to have further investigations after doing bowel cancer screening.
Turned out to be nothing to worry about. Nine times out of ten these things turn out to be nothing, but as you say always best to take advantage when tests are offered.
@Alanbrooke There are a lot of things I do blame her for, but she is by no means the sole cause of all our ills. She had a fair point with regard to the unions. The way she chose to tackle it ripped the Country apart.
So why have the trade union laws not been repealed then? Why did Scargill choose to call a strike without a ballot? Things like that tend to rip countries apart.
You need to get out more if you think that 3m Newsnight watchers are anywhere near representative of Jo public. The vast majority of those watching would have to be already pretty decided in their political views. Those who think MPs are a bunch of thieving, skiving b******s are generally not the types who like watching Newsnight.
It wasn't Newsnight - if you can't even manage to get that right I don't think there's much point in continuing this - never mind.
@Alanbrooke The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion. (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)
Evening Standard @standardnews 54s55 seconds ago BBC political editor Nick Robinson undergoing treatment for tumour on his lung http://bit.ly/1zqGLhn
How awful. Surely he'd be a non-smoker too?
I see it's being reported as a carcinoid tumour, which is a neuroendorcine (hormone system) tumour. That would not be smoking related.
This was the kind of cancer the late snooker player Paul Hunter had, though in his case he had a very aggressive type. Usually NET's are slow growing and can be managed quite well as a long term condition.
Best wishes to Nick.
Good wishes yes. I had an NHS letter the other day about a regular bowel cancer test - some do not bother but if people get them they should take advantage.
Would if I were you; wish they'd offered me one back in the day. When it was identified, meant an operation, chemotherapy (fortunately oral) ,but felt bloody awful for months. Bro-in-law had "suspicion"... turned out to be polyp which was removed during endoscopy.
Speedy The UK actually has lower unemployment than the global average and about average global growth, economically, when you look at Japan and Brazil and Russia as well as the EU the UK is not doing too badly either
You need to get out more if you think that 3m Newsnight watchers are anywhere near representative of Jo public. The vast majority of those watching would have to be already pretty decided in their political views. Those who think MPs are a bunch of thieving, skiving b******s are generally not the types who like watching Newsnight.
It wasn't Newsnight - if you can't even manage to get that right I don't think there's much point in continuing this - never mind.
Apologies - the whole claim was so mind-numbingly absurd that I confused Newsnight and Question-time. Woe is me. Tories down to 3% in the next polls.
@Flightpath What are we arguing about here? I have said many times that the Unions had gotten out of control. The reason why I supported the miners was because you could see what she was doing, and it was stupid. Control yes, destroy no, would have been my preferred option.
@Alanbrooke The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion. (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)
LOL well the Northern half always complain about the lack of it so I assume they must share that view.
Luckyguy1983 - you stick up for Putin? I think cartoonists need you more ....
Propaganda creates the conditions for world wars to happen. And your cartoon is pure propaganda -whether well intended or otherwise.
I stand for truth, not the current disastrous 'information merry-go-round' of assigning blame to our 'enemies' before we know anything, and then moving on to the next scandal, ignoring the questions that are subsequently raised. Look into the Malaysia Airlines tragedy thoroughly, and you will find it now looks extremely unlikely that Russia or its military equipment was in any way responsible. But who cares now? The papers all screamed Putin for days, and that's enough; it's gone into the public consciousness.
I'll stand up for any cartoonist who shows independence of mind and genuine insight. Cartoonists who simply add volume to a dubious mainstream media and political agenda have enough people standing up for them already.
@Alanbrooke The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion. (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)
Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America. It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.
Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
The Conservatives have risen by two points since a week ago to 35%, while Labour has correspondingly dropped two points to 33%. Ukip has risen slightly to 15%.
Once again the Greens have squeezed into fourth place on 7%, while the Lib Dems drop two points to 6%.
Last week
So Lab 35 +2 Con 34 -1 UKIP 14 -1 Green 6 -1 Lib Dem 6 -
Comments
1. Listened
2. Agreed with your view.
3. Completed a YG/ Opinium on-line poll
4. Have stopped voting Tory as a result.
Utter fantasy.
Got a laugh down the town today. Went into the cheese shop and started laughing. The delightful lady that runs it says "I know, I know but I got a letter from the Council who insisted."
Her new sign gives written warning:
"All of our cheeses contain milk"
Aren't you glad that the powers that be are working so hard and diligently to protect us all?
I think the more interesting medium term question is whether Putin can survive oil at sub $60 for a sustained period of time.
Look down the list of the nine largest oil exporters in the world - Saudi, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Qatar and even Angola - you see only one (Iraq) where there has been serious political upheaval in the last decade. Now, when oil was last cheap ('85-'99), we saw revolutions, wars and the like in Russia, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola. Resource extracting countries with autocratic leaders can buy off their populations when prices are high. When the economy is in recession, and government spending is being cut, then the likelihood of civil unrest increases (and/or wars to whip up patriotic fervour).
I think the consumer has a right to know!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_West_Hampshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
"Yes, this sign is stupid but your local elected representatives insisted I put it up."
Germany's military is an embarrassment (see: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/02/19/germanys-army-is-so-under-equipped-that-it-used-broomsticks-instead-of-machine-guns/). The countries of Europe have low birthrates, and few young people.
What's the threat to us from the EU? It is - like Japan - an aged area, in long-term decline. But it shows no militarism. Army sizes are a fraction of where they were; and governments are financially incapable of growing them.
And what does Russia have to offer us, anyway?
In Austria, questioning the holocaust is a criminal offence.*
* I actually agree with the law . This stops nutters like that historian and others writing anti semitic stuff.
Returning home from a shift and finding the cupboard bare, I grabbed a pizza from the local convenience store.
Only after eating the disgusting thing (hunger is good kitchen) I checked the ingredients......
I have never dared to find out what the hell "cheese substitute" is, a Blackadder Goes Forth episode rears it's head when I try.
Of course it won't cause everyone to change their vote - the question is does it move the odd person at the margin - and in my view it may well.
Anyway we'll see the polls tonight.
Luckyguy1983 - you stick up for Putin? I think cartoonists need you more ....
BBC political editor Nick Robinson undergoing treatment for tumour on his lung http://bit.ly/1zqGLhn
But the European threat if there is one will be more about the application of soft power rather than military. The current Eurozone crisis has been all about soft power.
If you really want to gain favour with Putin, it's really easy: just let him do what he wants. And what he wants is Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia...
IIRC, too, don’t some Central Asian peoples make mares-milk cheese?
But I think the EU is a little bit like Japan: getting older and poorer and gradually less relevant. I just don't buy greying countries will be throwing their weight around that much - except to ensure supplies of valium, xanax and ambien are kept up.
We should have excellent relations with them... but remember that we need to look beyond Europe.
Jackie Doyle-Price @JackieDP
Feb 26
UKIP support clearly in decline. Every prospect of keeping Thurrock blue. Come and help me defeat UKIP http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ukipdrop.jpg …
Jackie Doyle-Price @JackieDP
2h 2 hours ago
So @Tim_Aker thinks Thurrock is a fight between Labour & ukip. It is-for second place. Conservatives winning here
Jackie Doyle-Price @JackieDP
Feb 25
Election forecast now placing Conservatives 4% ahead in Thurrock. Only I can defeat UKIP
Issues within the local party have been alluded to, on the other hand being Mischievous of Micheldever perhaps she got wind of a poll that showed she would win the seat so decided to let someone who dosent have an MEP job as well to do have a crack....
But to just question? To just out words on a piece of paper that say something you dont like, and then publish it?
Is there any other thought that you think should be a criminal offence? Questioning the sustainability of a free at the point of use health service, maybe? That the climate might be changing because it is always changing and the evidence to suggest we are the primary reason for doing so is spurious at best? What about 'Newcastle United have an excellent chance at winning the premier league'?
Of course, LuckyGuy and FalseFlag will be unhappy, but in general...
How were the original Alanbrooke's relations with his American counterparts?
"Not having any of that suspect Roquefort, Gruyere or Brie. Bloody immigrant cheeses coming over here taking the place of working class British cheeses..."
(Surely we are all feta together...)
Nemtsov and Navalny - they are remarkable men.
I think the murder last night was planned so that the Kremlin would loom large in all the news stories. It was an act of propoganda as well as a murder.
If one of the commenters writes something defamatory it is deemed as Slander which is much harder to prove. Justice Eady established that. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/shanerichmond/5144547/Online_comments_are_more_like_slander_than_libel_says_judge/
(However it seems that if a commenter writes something defamatory and OGH does not remove it, OGH can be done for libel as "publisher")
With twitter, tweeters are in the position of OGH not the commenter, I presume this is because they have followers who receive all their tweets so are more analagous to a blogger than a commenter.
Its all rather complex, however the recent libel law reforms in the defamation act 2013 apparently make it harder to sue for Libel due to the new "serious harm threshold"
For example Before 2013 if I wrote in a blog that MalcolmG was a Turnip, he could sue me for libel because I am wrong and he is not a turnip (at least I think I'm wrong). Now he has to demonstrate that me calling him a Turnip caused serious harm to him or his finances.
I believe also that he would only have a year after I called him a Turnip to sue, as would be the case if I called him a turnip in a book. Prior to 2013 the libel was deemed to be republished every time someone clicked on it so the one year clock was reset.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25551640
We're kidding ourselves if we think we're going to be pre-eminent in a world of 10 billion people.
They stopped being best buddies when the UK voted Labour into power after the war.
They "shafted" the population and government by way of retaliation.
This was the kind of cancer the late snooker player Paul Hunter had, though in his case he had a very aggressive type. Usually NET's are slow growing and can be managed quite well as a long term condition.
Best wishes to Nick.
Tonight's polling predicitons:
Opinium - Lab Lead 4%
YouGov - Lab Lead 2%
A teeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiibbbbbbbbbllllllllleeeeeee night for the Tories!
UKIP 25
Lab 24
Tory 21
Green 32
Before Thatchers time in politics, so I claim dispensation as an automatic right.
All I am saying is that, in my view, Con has had a very, very bad week - and, all things being equal, I would not expect good polls for them tonight or in the next few days.
But of course anything could happen in a small number of polls - whatever the true underlying position may be.
Population is just one of the many factors of power for a country.
To simplify things the power of a country can be derived from 4 factors:
1. Technology
2. Economy
3. Military
4. Trade.
Throughout history those are the main factors of state power.
A small country can be extremely powerful if it's vastly ahead of it's neighbors in those categories, a prime example today is Israel.
We really are up the brown river and lacking a means of propulsion then?
You'll never make a lefty if you take that attitude.
My post was about what 3m people have heard - and many will now think - not what actually happened.
There are a lot of things I do blame her for, but she is by no means the sole cause of all our ills.
She had a fair point with regard to the unions.
The way she chose to tackle it ripped the Country apart.
I would argue the whole Country has suffered because of it.
I would make 3 different comparisons though to try to be more objective.
Britain VS World.
Technology: worsening
Economy: worsening
Military: worsening
Trade: worsening
Britain VS USA
Technology: worsening
Economy: worsening
Military: worsening
Trade: improving
Britain VS Europe
Technology: improving
Economy: improving
Military: improving
Trade: worsening
Britain's world position is worsening, as with the USA with the exception of trade, but improving in Europe with the exception of trade.
Britain can be one of the big 3 european powers, but it's weighted down by worsening trade figures with the EU, that is why in my opinion Britain's position will be better if it's outside the imploding EU structure.
Turned out to be nothing to worry about. Nine times out of ten these things turn out to be nothing, but as you say always best to take advantage when tests are offered.
Hope all is well.
Why did Scargill choose to call a strike without a ballot? Things like that tend to rip countries apart.
The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
(To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)
Bro-in-law had "suspicion"... turned out to be polyp which was removed during endoscopy.
And I go along with the best wishes to Nick.
LAB 35
CON 34
LD 6
UKIP 14
GRN 6
What are we arguing about here? I have said many times that the Unions had gotten out of control. The reason why I supported the miners was because you could see what she was doing, and it was stupid.
Control yes, destroy no, would have been my preferred option.
Am I allowed to mention Lib's at 6% and LOL!
I stand for truth, not the current disastrous 'information merry-go-round' of assigning blame to our 'enemies' before we know anything, and then moving on to the next scandal, ignoring the questions that are subsequently raised. Look into the Malaysia Airlines tragedy thoroughly, and you will find it now looks extremely unlikely that Russia or its military equipment was in any way responsible. But who cares now? The papers all screamed Putin for days, and that's enough; it's gone into the public consciousness.
I'll stand up for any cartoonist who shows independence of mind and genuine insight. Cartoonists who simply add volume to a dubious mainstream media and political agenda have enough people standing up for them already.
You meet them everywhere, but there are places where they seem to congregate.
It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.
Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
Once again the Greens have squeezed into fourth place on 7%, while the Lib Dems drop two points to 6%.
Last week
So Lab 35 +2
Con 34 -1
UKIP 14 -1
Green 6 -1
Lib Dem 6 -
Implies an OK score for the SNP.
Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228
That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle