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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,025
    edited February 2015

    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    Errm yes it does.

    Mind you Labour and the SNP have that little "Trident" difficult...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Hengists He does not rule out confidence and supply, and Davey was clear on AQ yesterday the LDs would only back the largest party, including the Tories. Clegg also said he would not allow 'the Tories to set the terms of a renegotiation', well obviously if the LDs were in coalition that would not happen anyway
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    @MSmithsonPB: Opinium poll for Observer
    LAB 35
    CON 34
    LD 6
    UKIP 14
    GRN 6

    Not much change.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,025
    HYUFD said:

    Hengists He does not rule out confidence and supply, and Davey was clear on AQ yesterday the LDs would only back the largest party, including the Tories. Clegg also said he would not allow 'the Tories to set the terms of a renegotiation', well obviously if the LDs were in coalition that would not happen anyway

    Good - c&s is much better for this PBer !
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187
    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Torquay is a dump perhaps and Glasgow is miles better and has easy access to hundreds of nicer places than Torquay as well, much better life style , etc etc etc.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    It would appear his own party are annoyed with his love of the EU.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2973007/Nick-Clegg-swivel-eyed-worship-Europe-won-t-agree-EU-referendum-say-fellow-Lib-Dems.html
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Cost
    local markets
    skilled workforce
    communications

    there's a raft of reasons why businesses locate where they do about the only ones where the weather is the deciding factor are farming and renewable energy.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    "Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?"
    Walk into a Glasgow city pub at random.
    Then do the same in Torquay.
    (I will take the "you will never walk out of a Glasgow pub" as read)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited February 2015

    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    At the last General Election the Lib Dem candidates stood on a manifesto with the following commitment:

    "The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membership over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in/out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.

    We believe that it is in Britain’s long-term interest to be part of the euro. But Britain should only join when the economic conditions are right, and in the present economic situation, they are not. Britain should join the euro only if that decision were supported by the people of Britain in a referendum."
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Torquay is a dump perhaps and Glasgow is miles better and has easy access to hundreds of nicer places than Torquay as well, much better life style , etc etc etc.
    Better class of turnip too malc.
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    "It's time we pulled out the thorn and healed the wound, time for a debate politicians have been too cowardly to hold for 30 years – time for a referendum on the big question. Do we want to be in or out? Nobody in Britain under the age of 51 has ever been asked that simple question. None of them were eligible to vote in that 1975 referendum. That includes half of all MPs. Two generations have never had their say."

    Nick Clegg, 2008
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I lived through the Thatcher era..In my opinion,as an ex miner, she changed the country for the better..I was also in the Scargill inner circle of news crews. To my mind,what he came out with..off record ..was akin to the ramblings of a total nutter.He had scant regard for the miners but seemed to want to overturn the Government of the day and he used them as his willing tools..poor sods.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Pulpstar said:

    The Conservatives have risen by two points since a week ago to 35%, while Labour has correspondingly dropped two points to 33%. Ukip has risen slightly to 15%.

    Once again the Greens have squeezed into fourth place on 7%, while the Lib Dems drop two points to 6%.

    Last week

    So Lab 35 +2
    Con 34 -1
    UKIP 14 -1
    Green 6 -1
    Lib Dem 6 -

    Implies an OK score for the SNP.

    I'm confused, but I think the first part of your post is what was said last week, and the second part is what'as happened now? Anyway, both scores consistent with level pegging.
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    Speedy said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Opinium poll for Observer
    LAB 35
    CON 34
    LD 6
    UKIP 14
    GRN 6

    Not much change.
    There hasn't been much change for two months, Speedy.

    Have we yet identified the PBer who announced 'January will be the month of Crossover and February the month of pulling away?'

    They should join Roger and Seth O'Logue on the PB Podium of Shame.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,115
    Surely, surely no-one would suggest that The Sun has got it wrong!
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    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    'Nick Clegg is ready to...' (i.e. hasn't done yet')
    'Citing an unnamed source...'
    'The Sun said...'

    I'll remain sceptical till it happens.
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    HYUFD said:

    Hengists He does not rule out confidence and supply, and Davey was clear on AQ yesterday the LDs would only back the largest party, including the Tories. Clegg also said he would not allow 'the Tories to set the terms of a renegotiation', well obviously if the LDs were in coalition that would not happen anyway

    So what? I know what Clegg has said.

    Do you seriously think the Tory Eurosceptics are going to let the Libdems dictate terms to Cameron over the EU renegotiation (remember there will likely be three times more of them than Libdems if Cameron forms a government)?

    Thats the point Cameron is increasingly between a rock and a hard place and I cannot see a way out of it for him.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,115

    I lived through the Thatcher era..In my opinion,as an ex miner, she changed the country for the better..I was also in the Scargill inner circle of news crews. To my mind,what he came out with..off record ..was akin to the ramblings of a total nutter.He had scant regard for the miners but seemed to want to overturn the Government of the day and he used them as his willing tools..poor sods.

    Off to see "Pride" at our local "Reel cinema experience" tonight.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @richardDodd
    Most of the miners up here thought Scargill was off his head, but they felt they had no choice.
    Donkey jackets led by a liar?
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    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    'Nick Clegg is ready to...' (i.e. hasn't done yet')
    'Citing an unnamed source...'
    'The Sun said...'

    I'll remain sceptical till it happens.
    Is that sceptical as in Cameron's Euro'scepticism' or Bernard Jenkins'?
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    Pulpstar said:

    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    Errm yes it does.

    Mind you Labour and the SNP have that little "Trident" difficult...
    Hmm. I'd have two issues with this. Firstly, "unnamed source" talking to the Sun - seems unlikely in LibDem circles to me. Secondly, there's some wiggle room here. I think Clegg has said before that he wouldn't agree to EU negotiations before the referendum unless LD ministers were heavily involved. Is this all a pitch for him being Foreign Sec in next Coalition?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187

    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Torquay is a dump perhaps and Glasgow is miles better and has easy access to hundreds of nicer places than Torquay as well, much better life style , etc etc etc.
    Better class of turnip too malc.
    For sure Alan
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    No idea, but I wonder if there is a Sunday newspaper story about Diane James.

    I wondered the same after such good reports re her speech earlier. I also think we're both thinking the same about tomorrow's likely outcome!!!
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    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    At the last General Election the Lib Dem candidates stood on a manifesto with the following commitment:

    "The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membership over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in/out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.

    We believe that it is in Britain’s long-term interest to be part of the euro. But Britain should only join when the economic conditions are right, and in the present economic situation, they are not. Britain should join the euro only if that decision were supported by the people of Britain in a referendum."
    Indeed but we know how well the Libdems can face both ways simultaneously
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,025
    ENGLAND ONLY figures in Opinium Observer poll
    CON 35
    LAB 36
    LD 7
    UKIP 14
    GRN 6
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Hengists Gift The key fact is the vast majority of the public want a referendum, if the Tories are largest party and there is a high UKIP vote too it would be political suicide for Clegg to deny it and refuse to make the pro EU case
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Pulpstar Indeed, if Tories + LD + DUP alone have the numbers C and S is probably most likely
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187

    I lived through the Thatcher era..In my opinion,as an ex miner, she changed the country for the better..I was also in the Scargill inner circle of news crews. To my mind,what he came out with..off record ..was akin to the ramblings of a total nutter.He had scant regard for the miners but seemed to want to overturn the Government of the day and he used them as his willing tools..poor sods.

    Off to see "Pride" at our local "Reel cinema experience" tonight.
    Bit of a rubbish film. It might have had its right-on credentials fully on display, but the dialogue is shite and the plot devices clunky as all hell. And it ends to Billy Bragg "There is Power in a Union". Could it have been more obvious?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,957
    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To less sober matters. I am pondering tonight's YouGov.

    Will Lab retain the lead they achieved on Thursday or will we revert back to a Tie or even a Con lead?

    Most difficult YG prediction of the week coming up...

    I assume no other polls are expected tonight (obviously this close to the election we could get polls from various unexpected quarters)

    I expect very bad polls for Con tonight.

    The second jobs issue looked bad and it was then compounded by a disastrous BBC1 Question Time - Q1 Immigration, Q2 Second Jobs and then worst of all someone in the audience with very good communication skills said they would never vote Con again due to MPs getting a 10% pay rise. It was very strongly implied that this had been implemented by the Conservatives - ie Conservatives giving MPs a huge pay rise whilst implementing austerity on everyone else - as toxic as you could possibly get.

    Shapps said no but far, far too quickly and not clearly enough for the TV audience to register.

    It was the single most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in the last few years.

    Con have definitely gone backwards this week.
    It was Telford. Immigration and Jobs would have been the first questions on QT for the last 4 decades.

    Whilst I don't think it was highlighted enough that IPSA is responsible for setting pay rates, I'm pretty confident it was not the most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in recent years. Have you ever seen Channel 4 news?

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Cost
    local markets
    skilled workforce
    communications

    there's a raft of reasons why businesses locate where they do about the only ones where the weather is the deciding factor are farming and renewable energy.
    Indeed but no need for resources any more, Charlotte in North Carolina, Omaha in Nebraska, Phoenix in Arizona are prime examples that the presence of natural resources are not that needed as much as in the past for a booming economic region.
    San Franscisco never had a coal mine or a steel plant and yet Silicon Valley developed there.
  • Options

    Speedy said:

    @MSmithsonPB: Opinium poll for Observer
    LAB 35
    CON 34
    LD 6
    UKIP 14
    GRN 6

    Not much change.
    There hasn't been much change for two months, Speedy.

    Have we yet identified the PBer who announced 'January will be the month of Crossover and February the month of pulling away?'

    They should join Roger and Seth O'Logue on the PB Podium of Shame.

    What about the PBer who in Jan/Feb 2014 said there wouldn't be a single poll between then and the election that would have the Tories ahead.
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Hengists Gift The key fact is the vast majority of the public want a referendum, if the Tories are largest party and there is a high UKIP vote too it would be political suicide for Clegg to deny it and refuse to make the pro EU case

    Why would it be? Miliband doesn't think so and Clegg has far less to lose. On the basis of that report he's clearly decided that his prospects are better to deny a referendum (perhaps hoping to get back some votes from Labour?).
  • Options
    Someone did a study a while back, most political resignations fall into the following time blocks

    1) The few hours before PMQs

    2) Between Saturday afternoon and when the Sunday papers come out
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,115
    edited February 2015

    I lived through the Thatcher era..In my opinion,as an ex miner, she changed the country for the better..I was also in the Scargill inner circle of news crews. To my mind,what he came out with..off record ..was akin to the ramblings of a total nutter.He had scant regard for the miners but seemed to want to overturn the Government of the day and he used them as his willing tools..poor sods.

    Off to see "Pride" at our local "Reel cinema experience" tonight.
    Bit of a rubbish film. It might have had its right-on credentials fully on display, but the dialogue is shite and the plot devices clunky as all hell. And it ends to Billy Bragg "There is Power in a Union". Could it have been more obvious?
    Credentials are fine by me (as you might expect), and we can get a decent drink and locally sourced food to eat before. And socialising.. Local team providing the "cinema" provide a good night out!

    Suspect you're right about the dialogue and plot devices though. Your remarks noted and I shall keep an eye out.
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    If the Tories last 30 day blitz against Labour doesn't work, and the 2 main parties end nearly the same on seats, is there anything to stop Cameron carrying on as a minority government?

    Even if Lab & the SNP can get to a near majority, Cameron can surely put together a minority government, and tempt Labour try & stop him with the Scots, when he will have a clear majority in England.
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    What this about?

    David Cameron‏@David_Cameron·33m33 minutes ago
    .@bbcnickrobinson - sorry to hear you'll be off for a few weeks. I wish you well - and a speedy return before the General Election.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Cost
    local markets
    skilled workforce
    communications

    there's a raft of reasons why businesses locate where they do about the only ones where the weather is the deciding factor are farming and renewable energy.
    Indeed but no need for resources any more, Charlotte in North Carolina, Omaha in Nebraska, Phoenix in Arizona are prime examples that the presence of natural resources are not that needed as much as in the past for a booming economic region.
    San Franscisco never had a coal mine or a steel plant and yet Silicon Valley developed there.
    Yes I can see how you thought Torquay was great , all that high tech industry and booming into the bargain. Are you a sandwich short of a picnic.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015

    Someone did a study a while back, most political resignations fall into the following time blocks

    1) The few hours before PMQs

    2) Between Saturday afternoon and when the Sunday papers come out

    That could be due to 2 things too:
    1. Damage control.
    2. To inflict damage.

    Depending on whether the resignation is planned in advance or not.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    Not even sure Clegg will be an MP after May.
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534

    What this about?

    David Cameron‏@David_Cameron·33m33 minutes ago
    .@bbcnickrobinson - sorry to hear you'll be off for a few weeks. I wish you well - and a speedy return before the General Election.

    Poor blokes got a tumour in his lung.
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    What this about?

    David Cameron‏@David_Cameron·33m33 minutes ago
    .@bbcnickrobinson - sorry to hear you'll be off for a few weeks. I wish you well - and a speedy return before the General Election.

    BBC's Nick Robinson to have tumour removed

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31676896
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,037

    No idea, but I wonder if there is a Sunday newspaper story about Diane James.

    I wondered the same after such good reports re her speech earlier. I also think we're both thinking the same about tomorrow's likely outcome!!!
    Rumour has it she is caring for an ill family member.. but maybe it s a Sunday scoop I don't know

    Tim is on twitter saying her standing down means Conservatives are value in Eastleigh, though don't know what that has to do with anything as she was the PPC for North East Hampshire
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @saddo
    Cameron is not going to lead a minority government.
    Some other Tory might though.
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    No idea, but I wonder if there is a Sunday newspaper story about Diane James.

    I wondered the same after such good reports re her speech earlier. I also think we're both thinking the same about tomorrow's likely outcome!!!

    Yep, we'll get tonked tomorrow because we have too may average players in too many positions, but I actually feel pretty positive about Pochettino. He definitely seems to have changed the mentality at the club. Can you remember Spurs ever scoring so many important, game-changing goals in the last five minutes? We also have a spine that will get better if it stays together - Lloris (probably off in the summer, but you never know), Vertonghen, Dier, Mason, Bentaleb, Kane. If they give the manager some money to bring in the players he wants instead of the ones the ludicrous Baldini fancies we may just have a chance next season.

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    saddo said:

    What this about?

    David Cameron‏@David_Cameron·33m33 minutes ago
    .@bbcnickrobinson - sorry to hear you'll be off for a few weeks. I wish you well - and a speedy return before the General Election.

    Poor blokes got a tumour in his lung.
    Sheesh. - sad to hear that.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Smarmeron..Scargill was definitely off his rocker .. Where is "Up Here"
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    I lived through the Thatcher era..In my opinion,as an ex miner, she changed the country for the better..I was also in the Scargill inner circle of news crews. To my mind,what he came out with..off record ..was akin to the ramblings of a total nutter.He had scant regard for the miners but seemed to want to overturn the Government of the day and he used them as his willing tools..poor sods.

    Scargill was a complete scumbag and led the miners into a fight they could never win.

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    Nice cartoon, Marf!

    Hope to meet as many of you as possible on 17th March!
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    isam said:

    No idea, but I wonder if there is a Sunday newspaper story about Diane James.

    I wondered the same after such good reports re her speech earlier. I also think we're both thinking the same about tomorrow's likely outcome!!!
    Rumour has it she is caring for an ill family member.. but maybe it s a Sunday scoop I don't know

    Tim is on twitter saying her standing down means Conservatives are value in Eastleigh, though don't know what that has to do with anything as she was the PPC for North East Hampshire
    Some things don't change do they!!
  • Options
    Another pollster with this trend.

    Labour regain a narrow one point lead over the Conservatives, as the numbers intending to vote for one of the two major parties rises to its highest point for two years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-24th-february-2015
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,321
    Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    To less sober matters. I am pondering tonight's YouGov.

    Will Lab retain the lead they achieved on Thursday or will we revert back to a Tie or even a Con lead?

    Most difficult YG prediction of the week coming up...

    I assume no other polls are expected tonight (obviously this close to the election we could get polls from various unexpected quarters)

    I expect very bad polls for Con tonight.

    The second jobs issue looked bad and it was then compounded by a disastrous BBC1 Question Time - Q1 Immigration, Q2 Second Jobs and then worst of all someone in the audience with very good communication skills said they would never vote Con again due to MPs getting a 10% pay rise. It was very strongly implied that this had been implemented by the Conservatives - ie Conservatives giving MPs a huge pay rise whilst implementing austerity on everyone else - as toxic as you could possibly get.

    Shapps said no but far, far too quickly and not clearly enough for the TV audience to register.

    It was the single most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in the last few years.

    Con have definitely gone backwards this week.
    It was Telford. Immigration and Jobs would have been the first questions on QT for the last 4 decades.

    Whilst I don't think it was highlighted enough that IPSA is responsible for setting pay rates, I'm pretty confident it was not the most damaging hour of TV for the Conservatives in recent years. Have you ever seen Channel 4 news?

    Q2 was about MPs having second jobs, ie earning lots of money, not serving their constituents etc etc etc. It was not about the "normal" subject of jobs. Apologies if original post not clear.

    Yes, I'm familiar with C4 News. BBC1 QT has an audience five times as large. Audience for C4 News is small enough that anything on C4 News can be discounted in terms of political impact.

  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Cost
    local markets
    skilled workforce
    communications

    there's a raft of reasons why businesses locate where they do about the only ones where the weather is the deciding factor are farming and renewable energy.
    Indeed but no need for resources any more, Charlotte in North Carolina, Omaha in Nebraska, Phoenix in Arizona are prime examples that the presence of natural resources are not that needed as much as in the past for a booming economic region.
    San Franscisco never had a coal mine or a steel plant and yet Silicon Valley developed there.
    Yes I can see how you thought Torquay was great , all that high tech industry and booming into the bargain. Are you a sandwich short of a picnic.
    I'm sure you think that Glasgow has so much better living conditions than the south of England.
    However instead of moaning about it and voting SNP, why not try to change the living conditions for the better.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187
    HYUFD said:

    Hengists He does not rule out confidence and supply, and Davey was clear on AQ yesterday the LDs would only back the largest party, including the Tories. Clegg also said he would not allow 'the Tories to set the terms of a renegotiation', well obviously if the LDs were in coalition that would not happen anyway

    Largest party by votes or by seats?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,932
    isam said:

    No idea, but I wonder if there is a Sunday newspaper story about Diane James.

    I wondered the same after such good reports re her speech earlier. I also think we're both thinking the same about tomorrow's likely outcome!!!
    Rumour has it she is caring for an ill family member.. but maybe it s a Sunday scoop I don't know

    Tim is on twitter saying her standing down means Conservatives are value in Eastleigh, though don't know what that has to do with anything as she was the PPC for North East Hampshire
    What is Tim's Twitter name?

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @richardDodd
    Central belt Scotland, though most of the strikers I met were West coast.
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    GIN1138 said:

    isam said:

    No idea, but I wonder if there is a Sunday newspaper story about Diane James.

    I wondered the same after such good reports re her speech earlier. I also think we're both thinking the same about tomorrow's likely outcome!!!
    Rumour has it she is caring for an ill family member.. but maybe it s a Sunday scoop I don't know

    Tim is on twitter saying her standing down means Conservatives are value in Eastleigh, though don't know what that has to do with anything as she was the PPC for North East Hampshire
    What is Tim's Twitter name?

    It'll be about one of his obsessions I'm sure.
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    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just For Fun

    Tonight's polling predicitons:

    Opinium - Lab Lead 4%

    YouGov - Lab Lead 2%

    A teeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiibbbbbbbbbllllllllleeeeeee night for the Tories!

    Here is my prediction

    UKIP 25
    Lab 24
    Tory 21
    Green 32

    Well that would get everyone talking... Sunil wouldn't know his ELBOW from Jack's ARSE, nevermind what it would do to EDICIPM vs EMWNBPM not to mention Rod's Monte Carlo stimulations...
    How very dare you!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,605
    edited February 2015

    Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 35s 35 seconds ago

    Labour return to narrow lead (but statistical tie): Lab 35%(+2),Con 34%(-1),UKIP 14%(-1),LibDems 6%(nc),Greens 6%(-1) http://tinyurl.com/lbqn9fd

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    felix said:

    Surprised no one has mentioned this:

    Clegg to rule out coalition deal over Cameron's EU vote vow - Sun

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/28/uk-britain-clegg-eu-idUKKBN0LW0JX20150228

    That would seem to leave Cameron up a creek without a paddle

    Not even sure Clegg will be an MP after May.
    Fair point but if he isn't I suspect all chances of a Tory Libdem deal shrink to almost zero.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Another pollster with this trend.

    Labour regain a narrow one point lead over the Conservatives, as the numbers intending to vote for one of the two major parties rises to its highest point for two years.

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-24th-february-2015

    Will it hit the roof?
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Smarmeron.. I have spent a lot of time in Scotland.. had a couple of places in Glasgow over the years when I was shooting Taggart..and went camping all over the place up there when I was a youngster..mainly around Aviemore...loved it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187

    Smarmeron..Scargill was definitely off his rocker .. Where is "Up Here"

    I actually agree with Doddery
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited February 2015
    Tims Twitter name.."Can I help you sir..lager is on special offer today"..
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Marquee Mark Seats, though I would not be surprised if the LDs still talked with Cameron first if he won most votes, as Thorpe did with Heath in Feb 1974
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,115
    HYUFD said:

    Marquee Mark Seats, though I would not be surprised if the LDs still talked with Cameron first if he won most votes, as Thorpe did with Heath in Feb 1974

    Heath invited Thorpe. Wilson sat on his hands.

    IIRC.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @richardDodd
    On a good day I could be at Loch Lomond inside an hour.
    Even where I stayed in the outer part of London, it took two and a half hours just to feel you had left the city.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187
    Speedy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Cost
    local markets
    skilled workforce
    communications

    there's a raft of reasons why businesses locate where they do about the only ones where the weather is the deciding factor are farming and renewable energy.
    Indeed but no need for resources any more, Charlotte in North Carolina, Omaha in Nebraska, Phoenix in Arizona are prime examples that the presence of natural resources are not that needed as much as in the past for a booming economic region.
    San Franscisco never had a coal mine or a steel plant and yet Silicon Valley developed there.
    Yes I can see how you thought Torquay was great , all that high tech industry and booming into the bargain. Are you a sandwich short of a picnic.
    I'm sure you think that Glasgow has so much better living conditions than the south of England.
    However instead of moaning about it and voting SNP, why not try to change the living conditions for the better.
    Firstly I do not live in Glasgow, I live 25 miles away near the coast , in a lovely 4 bedroom house , I also have a 100 year old large quarter villa, access to the best scenery in the UK, great for walking , sailing , few hours to ski-ing , blah blah blah. You need to get educated , actually go to Scotland , Glasgow is a beautiful city , rather than forming your pathetic opinions from the daily Mail. I repeat you are a real saddo if Torquay is your pinnacle.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    saddo said:

    If the Tories last 30 day blitz against Labour doesn't work, and the 2 main parties end nearly the same on seats, is there anything to stop Cameron carrying on as a minority government?

    Even if Lab & the SNP can get to a near majority, Cameron can surely put together a minority government, and tempt Labour try & stop him with the Scots, when he will have a clear majority in England.

    Gosh, that'd be a difficult challenge - I think we'd need as much as 5 seconds to decide to take it up.

    In any case, on current polling, Labour will have a majority in England, though not in Scotland!

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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and I gather a female UKIP MEP has announced she is no longer standing at the GE. Wonder why?
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    HYUFD said:

    Marquee Mark Seats, though I would not be surprised if the LDs still talked with Cameron first if he won most votes, as Thorpe did with Heath in Feb 1974

    Heath invited Thorpe. Wilson sat on his hands.

    IIRC.
    The convention was that the sitting PM had first go. There can never, as I understand it, under UK constitution, not be a government. However, I read somewhere that the fixed term parliament act got away with this convention.

    It would be a good idea for the Cabinet Secretary to spell all this out in public before the campaign gets going.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187

    I lived through the Thatcher era..In my opinion,as an ex miner, she changed the country for the better..I was also in the Scargill inner circle of news crews. To my mind,what he came out with..off record ..was akin to the ramblings of a total nutter.He had scant regard for the miners but seemed to want to overturn the Government of the day and he used them as his willing tools..poor sods.

    Off to see "Pride" at our local "Reel cinema experience" tonight.
    Bit of a rubbish film. It might have had its right-on credentials fully on display, but the dialogue is shite and the plot devices clunky as all hell. And it ends to Billy Bragg "There is Power in a Union". Could it have been more obvious?
    Credentials are fine by me (as you might expect), and we can get a decent drink and locally sourced food to eat before. And socialising.. Local team providing the "cinema" provide a good night out!

    Suspect you're right about the dialogue and plot devices though. Your remarks noted and I shall keep an eye out.
    Enjoy your night out. I was just trying to give you some ammo to stay in - if it is anything like as foul a night with you as it is with me!
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    saddosaddo Posts: 534

    saddo said:

    If the Tories last 30 day blitz against Labour doesn't work, and the 2 main parties end nearly the same on seats, is there anything to stop Cameron carrying on as a minority government?

    Even if Lab & the SNP can get to a near majority, Cameron can surely put together a minority government, and tempt Labour try & stop him with the Scots, when he will have a clear majority in England.

    Gosh, that'd be a difficult challenge - I think we'd need as much as 5 seconds to decide to take it up.

    In any case, on current polling, Labour will have a majority in England, though not in Scotland!

    Its very unlikely that the Tories wont have an England majority. You really think the English will take being ruled by a party they didn't vote for imposed upon them by a bunch of socialist Scots?

    Massive crisis me thinks.

    But, if the Tory campaign, which hasn't started yet, doesn't work, they will deserve to lose and the Uk better get used to a French/Greek style economic disaster.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Cost
    local markets
    skilled workforce
    communications

    there's a raft of reasons why businesses locate where they do about the only ones where the weather is the deciding factor are farming and renewable energy.
    Indeed but no need for resources any more, Charlotte in North Carolina, Omaha in Nebraska, Phoenix in Arizona are prime examples that the presence of natural resources are not that needed as much as in the past for a booming economic region.
    San Franscisco never had a coal mine or a steel plant and yet Silicon Valley developed there.
    Yes I can see how you thought Torquay was great , all that high tech industry and booming into the bargain. Are you a sandwich short of a picnic.
    I'm sure you think that Glasgow has so much better living conditions than the south of England.
    However instead of moaning about it and voting SNP, why not try to change the living conditions for the better.
    Firstly I do not live in Glasgow, I live 25 miles away near the coast , in a lovely 4 bedroom house , I also have a 100 year old large quarter villa, access to the best scenery in the UK, great for walking , sailing , few hours to ski-ing , blah blah blah. You need to get educated , actually go to Scotland , Glasgow is a beautiful city , rather than forming your pathetic opinions from the daily Mail. I repeat you are a real saddo if Torquay is your pinnacle.
    What does the Daily Mail have to do with economic development?
    I could have inserted London instead of Torquay but that wouldn't be fair.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    OKC Thorpe still went to see Heath first, and as Cameron has already worked with the Liberals, unlike Heath, there would be more chance of a second deal
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015

    Evening all and I gather a female UKIP MEP has announced she is no longer standing at the GE. Wonder why?

    For the same reason as the Tory MP for South Thanet decided to stand down in May. Personal ones!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    OKC Thorpe still went to see Heath first, and as Cameron has already worked with the Liberals, unlike Heath, there would be more chance of a second deal

    Not if the cost is the seat of the LD leader, by the way if Clegg loses his seat who does the negotiations anyway, or does everyone wait until the LDs select a new leader?

    As a reminder HYUFD the CPAC straw poll results are due at 10:10 pm tonight, or in about 3 and a half hours from now.

    I'm out.
    Goodnight.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited February 2015


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held, and with the least fuss and resistance, the more likely the people will vote to stay in the EU.

  • Options
    They used to say that the best time to score a century at Lords was midday on a Saturday: you would get into the evening "sports" edition of the papers, in the Sundays and in the Monday morning editions.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Hengists If the LDs have the choice between either giving a majority to a Miliband-SNP government or a Tory-DUP government in the end they will go with the latter and, through gritted teeth, will not vote down an EU referendum. Cameron in turn will have to give some concessions like abandoning the 35% spending target and early tax cuts, but a deal is possible
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
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    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    In 2011 21 Labour MPs supported a rebel motion for a referendum. I suspect pressure from Labour whips (it would be a three line whip) if it were a Government motion would be great and would ensure there were fewer Labour rebels. Furthermore, there could be some Tories I suspect who may well vote against a referendum. I doubt very much that even with Labour rebel support Cameron could win it.
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    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited February 2015
    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
    Pro-Europeans most of all should realise that the renewal of consent that a referendum would confer would greatly strengthen our position in Europe. The sooner that happens the better. Determined obstruction from the likes of Clegg will only boost the antis

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Hengists He does not rule out confidence and supply, and Davey was clear on AQ yesterday the LDs would only back the largest party, including the Tories. Clegg also said he would not allow 'the Tories to set the terms of a renegotiation', well obviously if the LDs were in coalition that would not happen anyway

    I recall Davey said the LDs would talk to the largest party first, and felt that this would be the electoral mandate, but I don't recall him rulling out talking to other parties if no agreement was possible.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2015


    Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 35s 35 seconds ago

    Labour return to narrow lead (but statistical tie): Lab 35%(+2),Con 34%(-1),UKIP 14%(-1),LibDems 6%(nc),Greens 6%(-1) http://tinyurl.com/lbqn9fd

    So 35% strategy is back. I would like to see the Green figures [ the spread , I mean ].
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
    I'm glad to see the voice of the authoritarian left is speaking for us all (especially when most British citizens would tend to disagree).....

    PS But thanks for proving my point.....
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Evening all and I gather a female UKIP MEP has announced she is no longer standing at the GE. Wonder why?

    Personality squabbles?
    James should be ashamed at embarrassing her leader. Not many people realise this but Farage is a terrific dancer.
    Farage is better looking than James. He is a better dresser than James. He has more hair! He tells funnier jokes! And he could dance the pants off of James!

    Farage makes better speeches than James and Farage is a better painter than James.
    James is a rotten painter, but Farage... he is a magnificent painter. He can paint an entire apartment in one afternoon! Two Coats!
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
    Tell that to the poor factory worker who has not enjoyed a pay rise for years. There will be 100s of hungry EU migrants ready to step in and replace him.

    Oxford Uni's Migration Observatory have conducted research which has shown that immigration has harmed the lowest earners and therefore the most vulnerable in society.
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    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited February 2015
    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If the LDs have the choice between either giving a majority to a Miliband-SNP government or a Tory-DUP government in the end they will go with the latter and, through gritted teeth, will not vote down an EU referendum. Cameron in turn will have to give some concessions like abandoning the 35% spending target and early tax cuts, but a deal is possible

    Whatever, you are only kidding yourself. Nobody else. There is no deal that Cameron could do that would not incur serious recriminations from within his own party. All the flagship policies that the Libdems would want to see are viscerally opposed by a large section of the Tories There is no deal to be had.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PeterC said:

    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
    Pro-Europeans most of all should realise that the renewal of consent that a referendum would confer would greatly strengthen our position in Europe. The sooner that happens the better. Determined obstruction from the likes of Clegg will only boost the antis

    Would that be the same way that the indyref settled the Scottish question?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    ENGLAND ONLY figures in Opinium Observer poll
    CON 35
    LAB 36
    LD 7
    UKIP 14
    GRN 6

    Absolute majority in English seats ?
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited February 2015

    PeterC said:

    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
    Pro-Europeans most of all should realise that the renewal of consent that a referendum would confer would greatly strengthen our position in Europe. The sooner that happens the better. Determined obstruction from the likes of Clegg will only boost the antis

    Would that be the same way that the indyref settled the Scottish question?
    I see your point, but I don't think it's the same thing. A referendum vote to stay in would I think settle the issue for the foreseeable future. That is what happened post-1975.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187
    edited February 2015
    Speedy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    The Southern part is only "better" if money is your sole criterion.
    (To be fair, for a large part of the population, it is the only unit of measurement they know)

    Well it's not just in Britain that that happened, there's the Rust Belt in America.
    It's the change in technology that helped the process, computers and software do not need steel and coal. So why the point to make them in far away cold places with bad weather if you can make them in sunny places with good weather.

    Why do the job in Glasgow if you can do it in Torquay?
    Cost
    local markets
    skilled workforce
    communications

    there's a raft of reasons why businesses locate where they do about the only ones where the weather is the deciding factor are farming and renewable energy.
    Indeed but no need for resources any more, Charlotte in North Carolina, Omaha in Nebraska, Phoenix in Arizona are prime examples that the presence of natural resources are not that needed as much as in the past for a booming economic region.
    San Franscisco never had a coal mine or a steel plant and yet Silicon Valley developed there.
    Yes I can see how you thought Torquay was great , all that high tech industry and booming into the bargain. Are you a sandwich short of a picnic.
    I'm sure you think that Glasgow has so much better living conditions than the south of England.
    However instead of moaning about it and voting SNP, why not try to change the living conditions for the better.
    Firstly I do not live in Glasgow, I live 25 miles away near the coast , in a lovely 4 bedroom house , I also have a 100 year old large quarter villa, access to the best scenery in the UK, great for walking , sailing , few hours to ski-ing , blah blah blah. You need to get educated , actually go to Scotland , Glasgow is a beautiful city , rather than forming your pathetic opinions from the daily Mail. I repeat you are a real saddo if Torquay is your pinnacle.
    What does the Daily Mail have to do with economic development?
    I could have inserted London instead of Torquay but that wouldn't be fair.
    Glasgow is a better place to stay than London as well on every scale you can imagine. You are deluded, have you ever ventured outside the M25.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MP_SE said:

    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum harms his chances. Clearly Clegg thinks the same on the basis of that article. I do not believe there is a cats chance in hell of the Tories forming a Tory led majority government without the Libdems. Without a Tory led majority government there will be no referendum. What the DUP and UKIP want is irrelevant because neither on their own will be able to get Cameron into majority territory.

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
    Tell that to the poor factory worker who has not enjoyed a pay rise for years. There will be 100s of hungry EU migrants ready to step in and replace him.

    Oxford Uni's Migration Observatory have conducted research which has shown that immigration has harmed the lowest earners and therefore the most vulnerable in society.
    That is because of the nasty Tories who instead makes sure that tax evaders and avoiders are protected.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    edited February 2015
    Speedy Fox Davey said the LDs would go with the largest party yesterday, I would imagine that remains the case if Clegg's leader or not. If those talks were to breakdown eventually that is a different matter, but they are unlikely to rush to back a Labour-SNP/Plaid-Green deal either

    Thanks for the CPAC News, I would imagine either Paul or Walker will win
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    edited February 2015
    PeterC said:

    PeterC said:

    surbiton said:

    PeterC said:


    HYUFD said:

    Hengists If Labour are not largest party Miliband will be gone anyway, the LDs are split on the EU referendum, there would have to be concessions but there is not an absolute bar in negotiations for one, the DUP as well as UKIP also demand an EU referendum in return for any confidence and supply
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/06/lib-dems-split-eu-referendum-tactics-concessions

    Let make this simple for you. At this moment Miliband does not think denying a referendum

    The simple reality is Clegg has already fallen foul of breaking election commitments. If he comes out and says that there will not be a EU referendum on his watch then you can be pretty sure that there won't be. No negotiations, no compromises, no concessions on that issue.

    As for the article (which is 5 months old) the obvious conclusion is Clegg now realises he will not get the things he wants and so the issue has been decided.
    What about Labour rebels? I feel that there would be enough to ensure that the referendum would pass.

    There is going to be a referendum sooner or later. The sooner it is held and with the least fuss and resistance the more likely the people will vote to stay in the eu.

    There will be no referendum because there should not be one. We are Europeans as we are part of the world. The best Tory success in the last 5 years has been getting in 300k net immigrants despite all their talk. Good for the economy !

    Only oldies want referendum and soon most of them will not here any more.
    Pro-Europeans most of all should realise that the renewal of consent that a referendum would confer would greatly strengthen our position in Europe. The sooner that happens the better. Determined obstruction from the likes of Clegg will only boost the antis

    Would that be the same way that the indyref settled the Scottish question?
    I see your point, but I don't think it's is the same thing. A referendum vote to stay in would I think settle the issue for the foreseeable future. That is what happened post-1975.
    probably the biggest advantage Out have is being able to say you can safely vote to leave as the EU will only want to run the vote again. We get two maybe three chances.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    The Conservatives have risen by two points since a week ago to 35%, while Labour has correspondingly dropped two points to 33%. Ukip has risen slightly to 15%.

    Once again the Greens have squeezed into fourth place on 7%, while the Lib Dems drop two points to 6%.

    Last week

    So Lab 35 +2
    Con 34 -1
    UKIP 14 -1
    Green 6 -1
    Lib Dem 6 -

    Implies an OK score for the SNP.

    Actually, exactly the opposite !
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Evening all and I gather a female UKIP MEP has announced she is no longer standing at the GE. Wonder why?

    Personality squabbles?
    James should be ashamed at embarrassing her leader. Not many people realise this but Farage is a terrific dancer.
    Farage is better looking than James. He is a better dresser than James. He has more hair! He tells funnier jokes! And he could dance the pants off of James!

    Farage makes better speeches than James and Farage is a better painter than James.
    James is a rotten painter, but Farage... he is a magnificent painter. He can paint an entire apartment in one afternoon! Two Coats!
    Don't be stupid, be a smarty, come and join the UKIP party?
  • Options
    Labour lead in ELBOW so far this week 0.8%, with just YG/Sunday Times to come
This discussion has been closed.