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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voti
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far the evidence that there’ll be a lot of tactical voting isn’t great but ground campaigning has yet to build up
It’s a term that we hear all the time. Because have first past the post the only way that those not supporting the two parties perceived to be on top locally can use their vote effectively is by switching to one that is in contention in order to stop another party.
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Dodgy bar charts ?
To say we Tories expect the votes to be there just because the world spins is risible.
But I take some comfort that these stats show people vote FOR us in far greater measure than any of the other parties. It shows we are making a case for their votes. And on the day, people are more likely to actually get off their arses to vote for something.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/05870dfa-b129-11e4-9331-00144feab7de
Nicola Sturgeon attacks 'Westminster austerity economics'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31377373
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/02/iain-anderson-a-conservative-snp-deal-may-be-the-only-option-for-both-parties.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11404160/Greece-threatens-tilt-to-Russia-and-China-unless-Europe-yields.html Fun for all the family.
I do think that some Labour supporters who have lent their votes to the Lib Dems before to keep out the tories feel betrayed and will vote Labour this time when Labour does not have a chance (eg in the south west and in the south generally). Result a less efficient Labour vote.
I also think that the rise of UKIP means (a) those naturally inclined to vote for them will deceive themselves into believing that they have a chance locally and (b) that they will feel a need to demonstrate the new found strength of their party by voting for them regardless. I fear the Tories will find squeezing the purple vote more difficult than is sometimes assumed.
Given the collapse of the Lib Dems I am not sure that their former supporters voting for someone else can be regarded as tactical.
Tory voters have consistently been more resistant to tactical voting and the thread header suggests that is still true. It is possible, I put it no higher, that some will vote tactically in Scotland for a Unionist most likely to win. I very much hope that happens in Inverness for example but Danny would not be wise to count on it.
Generally, I think that we have seen in our politics a similar phenomenon to what we have seen in Greece recently and elsewhere. People are fed up of austerity and hard choices. They want some magic wand waving and simplistic solutions. They are open to voting for those offering them whether they have a chance or not. I see a fragmentation of our votes reflecting this frustration and impatience.
Still thinking about voting tactically in Dundee West though.
Is this normal for pple interested in politics to be part of the polling panels? Doesn't that have skew the results? Not thinking so much of weighting 'cos they should have that nailed out but the turnout and likelihood to vote?
Cutting from questions here's my statement about it: we need to pay more attention to certainty to vote polling results.
Can someone do me a favour? Could you list which polling firms / regular polls are using self-selects and which ones aren't? Would be masshooootly appreciated.
I say milk them for a better NHS (45% top tax rates now versus 40% during 13 years bar a month of Labour).
You say drive them abroad - to create an NHS funding crisis.
Why do the Left want to kill the NHS?
@SophyRidgeSky: I can't help but think of this image when covering Labour's pink "Woman to Woman" bus http://t.co/wKZdhKYPR7
WRT austerity, people don't want austerity without end. But, globalisation probably means austerity without end.
Maybe the local council could organise it. Ah, I'm seeing a problem with that already.....
Con's potential partners are either DUP + UKIP or the Lib Dems, probably not all 3.
Flower of Scotland is a dreadful sentimental dirge - even worse than GSTQ!
https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/NaAnSco
Scotland the Brave!
Maybe he has a 6 month gig at NBC...
However, Labour can't point this out, for fear of how it would play in Scotland - admitting that the SNP might just deliver a better deal for the Scots than they can.
And the Tories can't, for fear of how bribing the Scots would play in England.
Can we look forward to some action being taken ?
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/10/police-several-forces-seek-details-charlie-hebdo-readers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urDzywYAO0I
Tactical voting for the Liberal Democrats in order to stop the Tories is only going to be a temptation in the Lib-Con and Con-Lib seats. That 9% nationwide could be 20%, 30%, 40% or more in the relevant seats (if we assume that the Lib Dems do not receive any tactical votes from Tories seeking to stop Labour).
The whole point of tactical voting is that it is changing your vote in reaction to the local circumstances. Thus you can't understand it by looking at national poll results. The poll results are useless without being broken down by seat type.
BREAKING SNP would back £180 bn more spending than Coalition by 2020 (cf NHS England total budget £100bn) @NicolaSturgeon to say later.
Welsh Labour would possibly want the same.
Tonight BBC3 9pm.
Programme titled, "An Idiots Guide to Politics."
"Why the Facebook generation is so disengaged from politics. With the general election just around the corner, according to a recent survey less than a quarter of under-25s plan to vote. Is this just apathy and ignorance? Or is something else going on?"
Regarding Male circumcision, yes it is recommended in Islam and 99.9% probably practice it. But then, so do Jews. Somehow, I am sure you would not write about their practices. Also, more than 50% of the US population and, until recently, male members of our Royal family.
I suppose there's an argument we could sustain higher tax revenues and spending with less globalisation, as we'd face less international competition, but I think that's a bit of a chimera.
Nick Robinson specifically mentioned Ed Miliband and Ed Balls in his report, not "Whoever the chancellor or PM is after the election".
The Lib Dems have managed to get quite alot of their manifesto through for a junior partner in a colaition (Personal allowance, etc - see here Mark Pack's infographic yes yes I know but they have had stuff they wanted to achieve in Gov't)
http://www.markpack.org.uk/libdem-infographic/
And look at the polls for Danny Alexander, the man who is bringing home more pork in Nessie's barrel than he knows what to do with.
Any deal with the Conservatives in Scotland is toxic, utterly toxic on the ground and the SNP want a majority in Holyrood next year - besides is Dave really going to abandon Trident or agree to spend more than Labour (Both of those would have devastating consequences for the Conservatives in terms of shipping support to UKIP) - it's a complete non starter for both Dave & Nicola.
Sunni Islam views the practise of FGM as either obligatory or acceptable depending on which exact school you adhere to, so you would be inaccurate to say its not related to religion, although you are partly right to say other religions practise it as well, although in most countries rather less often.
P S. any update on your definition of a hedge fund?
We are sneering at those on the Left who, rather than addressing industrial scale rape or FGM in our cities, witter on about how girls shouldn't be exposed to the stereotyping of pink = female and cutesy and subservient - and then start campaigning in a PINK battlebus. FFS.....
1. Corporate tax receipts are reduced because of tax competition, and the ability to use transfer pricing to move profits to low-tax jurisdictions.
2. Middle income jobs are reduced due to outsourcing and generally intensified competition, thus increasing the proportion of income tax receipts that come from a small minority of mobile tax payers. Technology is having an impact here, as it makes it easier for a CEO to run a company from a tax haven, and de-skills a lot of previously well-paid jobs.
This will tend to make austerity necessary on a continual basis just to keep up with the erosion of the tax base. It is possible that a radical change in tax policy (land value taxation?) or economic policy (but what can you do in a globalised economy to create more middle income jobs?) might be able to halt these trends, but it doesn't look like an immediate prospect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westmorland_and_Lonsdale_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Seems a good plan to me.
Because it has nothing to do with Islam. Show me one reference to FGM in the Quran.
Egypt 91% ? So all those "western liberal" women supporting the murderer Al Sasi are practising FGM ? Do you have Muslim number generator somewhere ?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/11/tristram-hunt-nun-bomb-british-politics
Ed should rule out any deal where she is allowed near the chequebook.
I am new to the development but some people have been living there a while and it was very clear that the senior councilor knew the people and was highly visible in the area.
Made me understand a little more clearly why they are so "sticky"
Interestingly the conservatives in Colchester now seem to be adopting a similar approach (and they have rung to canvas each member of my family re voting intentions / thoughts on economy and the leaders of the parties.
When I think about Labour and wonder how a great movement with towering figures like Bevan and Atlee have ended up with Ed Miliband I never stop to reflect on the effect of the pink battle bus......
Should I?
Yours
Confused of Camden
It’s down as a heading for discussion, but there’s nothing in the notes. He does though, often say about other practices .... no, nohing to do with Islam as such ..... local culture.
Globalisation also reduces the cost of manufactured goods: almost everyone can afford a mobile phone, and televisions are now ridiculously cheap and power efficient. Even if globalisation didn't occur, technological development would result in many of the effects you cite.
I don't think isolationism or anti-globalisation would make us any wealthier, in fact I fear it'd do the opposite. My objection is the belief you must have free movements of people to go with that of goods and services.
I think the government can prepare the UK for the future best by prioritising education, science and universities, and accepting and building upon our relative strengths in financial services, pharmaceuticals, new tech, multimedia and tourism.
FGM is illegal in Egypt and there was a recent conviction so the Government there seems to be tackling it at last. Indeed with a successful prosecution they are ahead of us!
"Surbiton and our fact-based universe aren't on speaking terms..... !"
Slightly unfair. I've noticed a tendency for all those who are wildly enthusiastic (you could say fanatical) about any political party to state that any view they hold is factual.
They want to to be true, so they assume it is.
The more idealistic they are, the worse it is.
Je suis cynicism.
"Two Indonesian nationwide studies in 2003 and 2010 found over 80% of the cases sampled involved cutting, typically of newborns through the age of 9. The surveys demonstrated that circumcision among girls and boys is a universal practice in the study sites, in all of which Islam was the primary religion."
Female genital mutilation is practiced among some Pakistani communities.Gibeau reports, for example, FGM is widespread in Bohra Muslims of Pakistan. The Sheedi Muslim community of Pakistan, considered to be of Arab-African origins, practice FGM. The practice is also found in Muslim communities near Pakistan's Iran-Balochistan border
"Estimates suggest 90% of females in the Ismaili Shia Muslim Bohra community in India undergo the trauma"
However in Nigeria...
"A 2008 demographic survey found 30% of all Nigerian women have been subjected to FGM. FGM is prevalent in 31% of Catholics, 27% of Protestant and 7% of Muslim women."
A Telegraph writer doesn't like an element of Labour's campaign! Fancy that!
This morning is yett again dominated by a Tory media obsession that frankly leaves the rest of us bemused.
I don't think protectionism would help Westerners either, as it would simply drive up the cost of goods and services. Nor would it be right to shut people out of the global economy who earn £2,000 p.a. to try and help people who earn 10 times as much.
"Show me one reference to FGM in the Quran"
You do know about the other sources used? The Hadith, for example? Or the cultural pressures.
You don't approve of FGM, but you approve of groups who you believe are marginalised. A reasonable view but sometimes difficult to reconcile. I think the Pope is a good man but I suspect he sins at times. Even the Saints can be horrible.
This morning is yett again dominated by a Tory media obsession that frankly leaves the rest of us bemused.
Well, there isn't a lot left for them not to like.
Labour writers seem to dislike most of Labour ideas and plans leaving a paucity of material for the right to deride.
This morning is yett again dominated by a Tory media obsession that frankly leaves the rest of us bemused.
Yes those well known Tory rags, the guardian, Labour list, the staggers, innumerable left leaning bloggers they are all Tory stooges. This is Miliband's blank sheet of paper biting him in the arse.