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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three months to go and focus moves to what should be good for LAB – the NHS

This polling has been carried out in exactly the same way for 40 years and is generally regarded as the one showing which issues are most salient. The approach is unique. People are interviewed face to face and are asked to name what they think are the main issues WITHOUT ANY PROMPTING. They are first for their view of the main issue and then asked to name any others without limit.

Read the full story here

dr_spyn

Nothing to do with the wall to wall coverage of alleged failings from that large TV corporation.

All that stuff about that paediatrician taking advantage of vulnerable children, or useless flu jabs.

AlastairMeeks

The NHS is generally seen as an issue that favours Labour, it's true. But oddly, it's Conservative supporters who are particularly concerned about it right now, as shown on that chart. Quite markedly, it's disproportionately the main concern of middle-aged ABC1s and the old.

TheScreamingEagles

Don't the voters prefer Dave over Ed when it comes to the NHS.

Victory for Dave.

(According to ComRes)

Pulpstar

How long before a certain location near Lichfield and Stone, and a certain Labour leadership campaigner are named ?

Scott_P

As it was announced

@benatipsosmori: https://t.co/ZwNjkiZgwE. NHS surges to top of issues facing Britain - but doesn't benefit Labour

@stvharry: This Ipsos Mori graph does raise questions about the wisdom of Labour's concentration on NHS http://t.co/BJ2B9iV3T3

Pulpstar

I watched Brillo's interview with Bennett - what struck me was how unprepared she was on the costing of their policies. No ideologicol pops from Brillo despite the extreme left nature of the Greens, just a cold hard accounting eviseraction- he's an excellent interviewer

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

How long before a certain location near Lichfield and Stone, and a certain Labour leadership campaigner are named ?

What's Chuka been doing in Uttoxeter now?

kle4

Wait, so the lower the social grade, the lower the concern? I'd assumed it would have been the other way around.

And is it a good thing that the economy is not in the lead, because it means people think things are beginning to go ok (seems optimistic for the medium to long term, but the last year at least has felt better), or bad because it means people will not worry as much about the supposed idiocy of Ed M's leadership making a bad situation worse?

Tissue_Price

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP


So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Tissue_Price

kle4 said:

And is it a good thing that the economy is not in the lead, because it means people think things are beginning to go ok (seems optimistic for the medium to long term, but the last year at least has felt better), or bad because it means people will not worry as much about the supposed idiocy of Ed M's leadership making a bad situation worse?

The Tories may just have got the economy into a Goldilocks position, electorally speaking: some proof that it's working, but enough doubt to resist change.

They've been bloody lucky with the oil price and may also be lucky with Greece.

Richard_Nabavi

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Roger

Isn't it odd that someone who earns around £120,000 a year can incompetently cost the public purse around £3,000,000,000 and not only avoided jail but kept their £120,000 salary?

But that's what's happened to Andrew Lansley. Even more surprising that his boss kept his job. Clearly politics is a more genteel profession than advertising where the whole department including the cleaners would be out on their backsides.

AlastairMeeks

If we assume that in a roughly 10 year period there were roughly 1,500 victims of abuse in Rotherham, we need next to determine how unusual a case Rotherham was. Being cautious, we should assume that it was at the worse end of the spectrum, but a long way from unparalleled. It has a population of 250,000, roughly 1/240th the population of Britain.

If 10% of Britain on average is as bad as Rotherham, that would suggest 36,000 victims in that bottom 10%. If 80% of Britain is half as bad as Rotherham, that would suggest a further 144,000 victims. If the remaining 10% of Britain is relatively unaffected, and has proportionately half as many victims as the mainstream 80%, that's a further 9,000 victims.

For rounding, you could call that 200,000 victims in the last 10 years or so. Depressingly, that sounds entirely plausible to me.

TGOHF

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

MikeSmithson

antifrank said:

The NHS is generally seen as an issue that favours Labour, it's true. But oddly, it's Conservative supporters who are particularly concerned about it right now, as shown on that chart. Quite markedly, it's disproportionately the main concern of middle-aged ABC1s and the old.

I think the fact that Tory voters re more concerned is bad news for Cameron. They probably won't be diverted to LAB but that nice Mr. Farage...

Peter_the_Punter

SeanT said:

Tissue_Price said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP


So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Thanks for doing the maths - seriously. I find it too horrific to crunch the numbers. Just.. gah.

Numbing in scale.

Yes, I think you misread my post, Sean.

Check back to previous thread.

Tissue_Price

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

Not that, but to have potentially suffered some sort of child sexual exploitation - even just one incident. Plenty of which they might have "brushed off" at the time, or maybe not even recognised as such. I'm not suggesting there are 1 million Rotherham girls.

TheWatcher

Roger said:

Isn't it odd that someone who earns around £120,000 a year can incompetently cost the public purse around £3,000,000,000 and not only avoided jail but kept their £120,000 salary?

But that's what's happened to Andrew Lansley. Even more surprising that his boss kept his job. Clearly politics is a more genteel profession than advertising where the whole department including the cleaners would be out on their backsides.

For balance, give us some numbers for Gordon Brown, Labour's ill fated NHS computerisation projects, and all of those involved in the sexed up Iraqi dossiers and subsequent war.

Peter_the_Punter

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

TGOHF

MikeSmithson said:

antifrank said:

The NHS is generally seen as an issue that favours Labour, it's true. But oddly, it's Conservative supporters who are particularly concerned about it right now, as shown on that chart. Quite markedly, it's disproportionately the main concern of middle-aged ABC1s and the old.

I think the fact that Tory voters re more concerned is bad news for Cameron. They probably won't be diverted to LAB but that nice Mr. Farage...

Vote Ukip to save the NHS.

Yes very plausible..

MP_SE

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

If we assume that in a roughly 10 year period there were roughly 1,500 victims of abuse in Rotherham, we need next to determine how unusual a case Rotherham was. Being cautious, we should assume that it was at the worse end of the spectrum, but a long way from unparalleled. It has a population of 250,000, roughly 1/240th the population of Britain.

If 10% of Britain on average is as bad as Rotherham, that would suggest 36,000 victims in that bottom 10%. If 80% of Britain is half as bad as Rotherham, that would suggest a further 144,000 victims. If the remaining 10% of Britain is relatively unaffected, and has proportionately half as many victims as the mainstream 80%, that's a further 9,000 victims.

For rounding, you could call that 200,000 victims in the last 10 years or so. Depressingly, that sounds entirely plausible to me.

An altogether grimmer subject, but given your recent maths that looks very plausible to me.

Roger

Sean?

"For rounding, you could call that 200,000 victims in the last 10 years or so. Depressingly, that sounds entirely plausible to me."

How many of those would you be responsible for Sean?

saddo

3 months for the Tories to take Labour to pieces on the NHS.

As we've seen this week, the slightest pressure against any of their "policies" they collapse in a heap:

Labour business policy - no business support at all & Bill Somebody

Labour education policy - slag off Nun's when Hunt actually meant he was sneering at any one who hasn't got the comrades sanctioned piece of paper

Labour & tax avoidance policy - Labour accept c£500k of assistance from PWC, the leading tax avoidance experts

So the Labour NHS policy - just see what they do in Wales, Staffordshire in the past etc.

The more sunlight that goes onto their policies & Ed, the more they fall apart

Richard_Nabavi

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

Yes, but it's very important to be clear what we are talking about. It's a very unhelpful feature of the subject that people conflate relatively minor incidents with the absolutely appalling violent rapes, amounting in at least some cases to sexual slavery, reported in Rotherham and some other towns.

Pulpstar

@Roger I thought that sort of comment wasn't allowed under British law...

Alanbrooke

Pulpstar said:

@Roger I thought that sort of comment wasn't allowed under British law...

Roger is an artist, a man of the muse, he is beyond the law.

maaarsh

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

Yes, but it's very important to be clear what we are talking about. It's a very unhelpful feature of the subject that people conflate relatively minor incidents with the absolutely appalling violent rapes, amounting in at least some cases to sexual slavery, reported in Rotherham and some other towns.

Careful, someone will come along and turn this in to another - anyone claiming some sexual assault is worse than others is condoning rapists headache

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

If we assume that in a roughly 10 year period there were roughly 1,500 victims of abuse in Rotherham, we need next to determine how unusual a case Rotherham was. Being cautious, we should assume that it was at the worse end of the spectrum, but a long way from unparalleled. It has a population of 250,000, roughly 1/240th the population of Britain.

If 10% of Britain on average is as bad as Rotherham, that would suggest 36,000 victims in that bottom 10%. If 80% of Britain is half as bad as Rotherham, that would suggest a further 144,000 victims. If the remaining 10% of Britain is relatively unaffected, and has proportionately half as many victims as the mainstream 80%, that's a further 9,000 victims.

For rounding, you could call that 200,000 victims in the last 10 years or so. Depressingly, that sounds entirely plausible to me.

An altogether grimmer subject, but given your recent maths that looks very plausible to me.

As Tissue Price says, not all cases will be identically horrific. There is a scale on these things, and the worst cases get the most attention (rightly). There is quite a big difference between a 14 year old having an 18 year old who she calls her boyfriend and an 11 year old being trafficked and gang raped.

TheWatcher

Alanbrooke said:

Pulpstar said:

@Roger I thought that sort of comment wasn't allowed under British law...

Roger is an artist, a man of the muse, he is beyond the law.

Interesting libel defence.

Smarmeron

@Pulpstar
It's perfectly legal to ask a question?

saddened

MikeSmithson said:

antifrank said:

The NHS is generally seen as an issue that favours Labour, it's true. But oddly, it's Conservative supporters who are particularly concerned about it right now, as shown on that chart. Quite markedly, it's disproportionately the main concern of middle-aged ABC1s and the old.

I think the fact that Tory voters re more concerned is bad news for Cameron. They probably won't be diverted to LAB but that nice Mr. Farage...

Something bad for the Tories, shocking.

TGOHF

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

AlastairMeeks

SeanT said:

If antifrank is anywhere near the vicinity of being vaguely correct, why are we talking about anything APART from "Rotherham"?

It's just.... incredible. 200,000. It's the kind of crime you read about in awful history books about faraway countries under totalitarian regimes.

Yet apparently it happened in Britain while we were all watching Downton.

SeantT, why are you so astonished? You travel regularly to Thailand, where no doubt you see how many men desire girls and boys who are way below the British age of consent. You presumably know how strong the male sexual impulse is. Hell, you've written books on the subject.

To me, the only surprise is just how willing for how long we have been to suspend disbelief and pretend that not all that much untoward was happening.

If we are to start afresh, we have to start by recognising that we need to work out what we are going to do about male sexual desire, and how we are going to set boundaries around it.

Neil

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

You'll be reassured to learn that the unfortunate Glasgow bus driver was a 58yo jock.

Pulpstar

Smarmeron said:

@Pulpstar
It's perfectly legal to ask a question?

Not always.

There's some recent libel trials you may wish to acquaint yourself with.

Scrapheap_as_was

This polling is surely in part just a response to the news agenda and backward looking therefore... winter crisis in April and May will take some stringing out.

I also see OGH's publicised buying in to betfair most seats for labour stopped the rot for a day or so (curse him!) but the drift to the blues, away from the reds appears as if it might be recommencing. Hoorar for still riding the blue wave!!

Cashing out is rubbish though on Betfair so i also need to back Labour to get flat on them winning & still then win £500 on the blues getting most!

Can't bring myself to do it though - need to put £900 on Ed - that is just wrong!

AlbionTillIDie

Roger said:

Sean?

"For rounding, you could call that 200,000 victims in the last 10 years or so. Depressingly, that sounds entirely plausible to me."

How many of those would you be responsible for Sean?

So speaketh the left.

Smarmeron

@antifrank
" the only surprise is just how willing for how long we have been to suspend disbelief and pretend that not all that much untoward was happening"

The reason it tends to go "unnoticed" is precisely because it is so common.
A valuable commodity can buy a lot of "not noticing"

Neil

SeanT said:

Neil said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

You'll be reassured to learn that the unfortunate Glasgow bus driver was a 58yo jock.

We've done this. Harry Clarke. Indeed I was the first to mention it on pb.

Glad you have recovered from your flounce.

It was quite a hangover but I struggled through.

Peter_the_Punter

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

Yes, but it's very important to be clear what we are talking about. It's a very unhelpful feature of the subject that people conflate relatively minor incidents with the absolutely appalling violent rapes, amounting in at least some cases to sexual slavery, reported in Rotherham and some other towns.

Couldn't agree more, Richard.

Incredible as it may seem, The Westminster Paedophile ring story is likely to make Rotherham look like a storm in a teacup. A real sense of perspective will be necessary then, if it isn't now.

But perhaps that's best left to another thread. Let's talk about the NHS! :-)

Smarmeron

@Pulpstar
The usual answer to something like that is "none", and in theory Sean could sue Rodger for inference.
In this case though it has a snowballs chance in hell of happening, and the odds of Sean winning given some of his own previous posts is quite probably a lot less.

Tissue_Price

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

Yes, but it's very important to be clear what we are talking about. It's a very unhelpful feature of the subject that people conflate relatively minor incidents with the absolutely appalling violent rapes, amounting in at least some cases to sexual slavery, reported in Rotherham and some other towns.

Couldn't agree more, Richard.

Incredible as it may seem, The Westminster Paedophile ring story is likely to make Rotherham look like a storm in a teacup. A real sense of perspective will be necessary then, if it isn't now.

But perhaps that's best left to another thread. Let's talk about the NHS! :-)

Sheer Numbers vs. Depth of Depravity. It's not a very appetising moral discussion, is it?

Sunil_Prasannan

Three months to save Crossover!

Luckyguy1983

TGOHF said:

MikeSmithson said:

antifrank said:

The NHS is generally seen as an issue that favours Labour, it's true. But oddly, it's Conservative supporters who are particularly concerned about it right now, as shown on that chart. Quite markedly, it's disproportionately the main concern of middle-aged ABC1s and the old.

I think the fact that Tory voters re more concerned is bad news for Cameron. They probably won't be diverted to LAB but that nice Mr. Farage...

Vote Ukip to save the NHS.

Yes very plausible..

If they are older, it's surely the drinking out of vases, starving to death, filthy conditions thing that is worrying them, therefore I find it entirely plausible they would choose Ukip over those in charge now and those responsible for Mid Staffs. 'Concern' about the NHS does not mean just the 'Give the poor loves more money' school of opinion.

MP_SE

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I would hope that the local police will have conducted an extra thorough investigation. It is not like they can afford any more mistakes/oversights.

I am confident Rotherham will pick up Private Eye's Rotten Borough of the Year.

Smarmeron

I know you all like a good rant, but try a small geometers line.
The chances are, it is going on in your neighbourhood, and possibly by a family friend or relative.
Like rats, you are never far from one no matter where you live.

Dair

kle4 said:

Wait, so the lower the social grade, the lower the concern? I'd assumed it would have been the other way around.

And is it a good thing that the economy is not in the lead, because it means people think things are beginning to go ok (seems optimistic for the medium to long term, but the last year at least has felt better), or bad because it means people will not worry as much about the supposed idiocy of Ed M's leadership making a bad situation worse?

Perhaps the concern people had was "how much tax is the NHS costing me".

AndyJS

What I find distasteful is the way certain people seem to be trying to divert attention from Rotherham with cases such as those of Gary Glitter and Stuart Hall, as if they're at all comparable.

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

Pulpstar

Bingo !

Luckyguy1983

Roger said:

Isn't it odd that someone who earns around £120,000 a year can incompetently cost the public purse around £3,000,000,000 and not only avoided jail but kept their £120,000 salary?

But that's what's happened to Andrew Lansley. Even more surprising that his boss kept his job. Clearly politics is a more genteel profession than advertising where the whole department including the cleaners would be out on their backsides.

I thought you guys usually just blamed the product?

Ishmael_X

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I don't think I would hurl myself under a Vauxhall Corsa to end it all, too much danger of an inconclusive result (as here).

AndyJS

Male sexual desire hasn't changed for millions of years. It is now what is has always been. Whatever is happening now has been happening constantly since the dawn of humankind. The age of consent was 12 for many centuries, presumably because that fitted in with normal behaviour for the time.

antifrank said:

SeanT said:

If antifrank is anywhere near the vicinity of being vaguely correct, why are we talking about anything APART from "Rotherham"?

It's just.... incredible. 200,000. It's the kind of crime you read about in awful history books about faraway countries under totalitarian regimes.

Yet apparently it happened in Britain while we were all watching Downton.

SeantT, why are you so astonished? You travel regularly to Thailand, where no doubt you see how many men desire girls and boys who are way below the British age of consent. You presumably know how strong the male sexual impulse is. Hell, you've written books on the subject.

To me, the only surprise is just how willing for how long we have been to suspend disbelief and pretend that not all that much untoward was happening.

If we are to start afresh, we have to start by recognising that we need to work out what we are going to do about male sexual desire, and how we are going to set boundaries around it.

TheWatcher

AndyJS said:

Male sexual desire hasn't changed for millions of years. It is now what is has always been. Whatever is happening now has been happening constantly since the dawn of humankind. The age of consent was 12 for many centuries, presumably because that fitted in with normal behaviour for the time.

antifrank said:

SeanT said:

If antifrank is anywhere near the vicinity of being vaguely correct, why are we talking about anything APART from "Rotherham"?

It's just.... incredible. 200,000. It's the kind of crime you read about in awful history books about faraway countries under totalitarian regimes.

Yet apparently it happened in Britain while we were all watching Downton.

SeantT, why are you so astonished? You travel regularly to Thailand, where no doubt you see how many men desire girls and boys who are way below the British age of consent. You presumably know how strong the male sexual impulse is. Hell, you've written books on the subject.

To me, the only surprise is just how willing for how long we have been to suspend disbelief and pretend that not all that much untoward was happening.

If we are to start afresh, we have to start by recognising that we need to work out what we are going to do about male sexual desire, and how we are going to set boundaries around it.

Normal behaviour, or life span expectation? No point in marrying at 18 if you'll be dead by 30.

Smarmeron

@AndyJS
Yes, they are in no way comparable.
After all Saville managed almost all his victims single handedly, and in full view of the entire public.
Those other b8stards. were rank amateurs by comparison.

MP_SE

Smarmeron said:

I know you all like a good rant, but try a small geometers line.
The chances are, it is going on in your neighbourhood, and possibly by a family friend or relative.
Like rats, you are never far from one no matter where you live.

I remember during a PE lesson I noticed a strange man watching us. He sat in his car and watched us throughout the whole lesson. Even though I was only young, I knew something was wrong and told the teacher. He did nothing. The lesson ended and the man drove off without anyone calling the police or taking down his license plate.

I wonder whatever happened to him. Maybe nothing. Maybe he went on to do far worse than just watch. That really brought it home that these things are happening all over the country and noone is safe.

Pulpstar

On thread, my work colleague who was based in Rotherham said the other day she was thankful that she didn't have girls. (She has two boys)

Says it all really.

NickPalmer

I see Populus and the FT have launched a new tool called Sentio to predict the likely Government, based on statistical analysis (details unspecified). They see a roughly 70% chance of a Labour-led government, 30% of a Tory-led one, but only 5% of either getting an overall majority.

They also measure as usual what news people remember of last week. The election? No, just 3% remember it being mentioned. NHS? No, 1%. Rotherham? No, 1%. ISIS, however, 39%.

SquareRoot

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

Yes, but it's very important to be clear what we are talking about. It's a very unhelpful feature of the subject that people conflate relatively minor incidents with the absolutely appalling violent rapes, amounting in at least some cases to sexual slavery, reported in Rotherham and some other towns.

Couldn't agree more, Richard.

Incredible as it may seem, The Westminster Paedophile ring story is likely to make Rotherham look like a storm in a teacup. A real sense of perspective will be necessary then, if it isn't now.

But perhaps that's best left to another thread. Let's talk about the NHS! :-)

Not the first time you have said that, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the Westminster stuff will be mixed in with all sorts of other revelations, thereby reducing its impact.

MP's are humans just like the rest of us, there are good and bad in all. Police corruption will be in there somewhere......

rottenborough

Interesting poll. But the question though as far as GE is concerned is: what issue facing the country will most decide your vote? The Tories are betting the farm that the answer, in the quiet of the polling booth, will be the economy.

MikeK

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I must agree with you in this SeanT, it's mighty suspicious that Ali died just when an investigation was about to focus on his doings with the Rotherham child abuse and rape horrors. It could be that this was an assassination attempt that succeeded, to prevent Ali from talking and spilling what he knew.

TheWatcher

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I must agree with you in this SeanT, it's mighty suspicious that Ali died just when an investigation was about to focus on his doings with the Rotherham child abuse and rape horrors. It could be that this was an assassination attempt that succeeded, to prevent Ali from talking and spilling what he knew.

Assassination with a Corsa? Interesting method. Equally likely that he jumped in front of the car himself.

MP_SE

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I must agree with you in this SeanT, it's mighty suspicious that Ali died just when an investigation was about to focus on his doings with the Rotherham child abuse and rape horrors. It could be that this was an assassination attempt that succeeded, to prevent Ali from talking and spilling what he knew.

I wonder what type of vehicle it was, say for example, a 4x4, a sports car or maybe a minicab....

Edit: just seen it was a Corsa. Not exactly minicab material.

SquareRoot

rottenborough said:

Interesting poll. But the question though as far as GE is concerned is: what issue facing the country will most decide your vote? The Tories are betting the farm that the answer, in the quiet of the polling booth, will be the economy.

and they'd be right.. its the economy stupid...

Speedy

TheWatcher said:

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I must agree with you in this SeanT, it's mighty suspicious that Ali died just when an investigation was about to focus on his doings with the Rotherham child abuse and rape horrors. It could be that this was an assassination attempt that succeeded, to prevent Ali from talking and spilling what he knew.

Assassination with a Corsa? Interesting method. Equally likely that he jumped in front of the car himself.

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/pedestrian-in-critical-condition-in-hospital-after-being-hit-by-car-in-sheffield-during-snowy-weather-1-7079411

During snowy weather.

Smarmeron

@Speedy
You mean the lizards organized the snow storm?
*gasps in horror*

john_zims

@Peter_the_Punter

'Incredible as it may seem, The Westminster Paedophile ring story is likely to make Rotherham look like a storm in a teacup. A real sense of perspective will be necessary then, if it isn't now.'

Child abuse on an industrial scale that has been rife for years in virtually every city across the UK is a storm in a teacup, that's some perspective.

MaxPB

I don't know if it is good for Labour, they have already extracted maximum value from the NHS in terms of votes.

Additionally I don't think the NHS is a big weakness for the Tories, not at least while Dave is leader and Burnham is Shadow Health Sec. Ed just doesn't seem to be able to exploit the weak NHS figures and target misses into meaningful polling gains.

I still believe that the GE is going to come down to the economy, and with things heating up again domestically and falling apart in Europe wrt Greece the choice will be made very clear and Ed/Ed are just not in the same league as Dave/George on economic ratings. The gulf is massive, add in Dave's massively superior leader ratings and it has the makings of enough seats to be the largest party at least.

MP_SE

Speedy said:

TheWatcher said:

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I must agree with you in this SeanT, it's mighty suspicious that Ali died just when an investigation was about to focus on his doings with the Rotherham child abuse and rape horrors. It could be that this was an assassination attempt that succeeded, to prevent Ali from talking and spilling what he knew.

Assassination with a Corsa? Interesting method. Equally likely that he jumped in front of the car himself.

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/pedestrian-in-critical-condition-in-hospital-after-being-hit-by-car-in-sheffield-during-snowy-weather-1-7079411

During snowy weather.

During snowy weather or due to snowy weather.

Peter_the_Punter

SquareRoot said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

Yes, but it's very important to be clear what we are talking about. It's a very unhelpful feature of the subject that people conflate relatively minor incidents with the absolutely appalling violent rapes, amounting in at least some cases to sexual slavery, reported in Rotherham and some other towns.

Couldn't agree more, Richard.

Incredible as it may seem, The Westminster Paedophile ring story is likely to make Rotherham look like a storm in a teacup. A real sense of perspective will be necessary then, if it isn't now.

But perhaps that's best left to another thread. Let's talk about the NHS! :-)

Not the first time you have said that, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the Westminster stuff will be mixed in with all sorts of other revelations, thereby reducing its impact.

MP's are humans just like the rest of us, there are good and bad in all. Police corruption will be in there somewhere......

Oh no, nothing will reduce its impact.

And 'Westminster' is just a name to hang around it. It's by no means confined to the Political classes.

If you are interested, Google Elm House Guest list. If you are not, I don't blame you.

Speedy

Smarmeron said:

@Speedy
You mean the lizards organized the snow storm?
*gasps in horror*

Please leave something for SeanT, he is the author of the mystery story of the week.
Though with the local mafia who knows?

rcs1000

It is *suspicious*. But it's also possible he saw the net closing around himself and decided to "end it".

Although "death by Corsa" doesn't sound very likely either way.

OblitusSumMe

Interesting that the eldest are most concerned about the NHS, and yet that is also Labour's weakest age group. I wonder whether the young, who are least concerned about the NHS, generally give Labour a thumbs up on running it, while the old, who are concerned, give them a more negative judgement?

It might explain why the focus on the NHS doesn't appear to have created any polling traction for Labour.

EDIT: My cat would like to post on pb.com

Speedy

MP_SE said:

Speedy said:

TheWatcher said:

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I must agree with you in this SeanT, it's mighty suspicious that Ali died just when an investigation was about to focus on his doings with the Rotherham child abuse and rape horrors. It could be that this was an assassination attempt that succeeded, to prevent Ali from talking and spilling what he knew.

Assassination with a Corsa? Interesting method. Equally likely that he jumped in front of the car himself.

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/pedestrian-in-critical-condition-in-hospital-after-being-hit-by-car-in-sheffield-during-snowy-weather-1-7079411

During snowy weather.

During snowy weather or due to snowy weather.

That's what the local newspaper wrote on the day of the "accident".

Peter_the_Punter

NickPalmer said:

I see Populus and the FT have launched a new tool called Sentio to predict the likely Government, based on statistical analysis (details unspecified). They see a roughly 70% chance of a Labour-led government, 30% of a Tory-led one, but only 5% of either getting an overall majority.

They also measure as usual what news people remember of last week. The election? No, just 3% remember it being mentioned. NHS? No, 1%. Rotherham? No, 1%. ISIS, however, 39%.

Thanks Nick.

5% chance of an OM is what I've been touting - and meeting some scepticism. Nice to know I am not alone.

Not sure I can have 70% chance of a Labour-led Government though. I'm more of a 50/50 man on that one.

Smarmeron

@rcs1000

He was walking along the road with something on his mind and stepped onto the road without thinking?
I may leave the fantasy stuff for those better equipped than me :-(

SquareRoot

Peter_the_Punter said:

SquareRoot said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

I think PtP was agreeing with you Sean. 1 million may seem on the high side, but that's only a 4% incidence amongst the adult female population [and, of course, boys have been exploited too in the past]. What do I know as to whether or not 4% is realistic - but it isn't wildly implausible.

Sorry, but it's not plausible to say that one in 25 of all women (of all ages and social classes, in all areas of the country) have been groomed by gangs, raped, and prostituted.

It would be plausible as a figure for victims of 'sex offences', taking that definition fairly widely. But it would be misleading to conflate that with the scandal of Rotherham etc.

Well yes, Richard, defined that way you are doubtless correct but broaden the scope just a little and a million is not implausible.

We shouldn't be getting hung up on the fine detail. The scale is plainly massive.

Yes, but it's very important to be clear what we are talking about. It's a very unhelpful feature of the subject that people conflate relatively minor incidents with the absolutely appalling violent rapes, amounting in at least some cases to sexual slavery, reported in Rotherham and some other towns.

Couldn't agree more, Richard.

Incredible as it may seem, The Westminster Paedophile ring story is likely to make Rotherham look like a storm in a teacup. A real sense of perspective will be necessary then, if it isn't now.

But perhaps that's best left to another thread. Let's talk about the NHS! :-)

Not the first time you have said that, but you can bet your bottom dollar that the Westminster stuff will be mixed in with all sorts of other revelations, thereby reducing its impact.

MP's are humans just like the rest of us, there are good and bad in all. Police corruption will be in there somewhere......

Oh no, nothing will reduce its impact.

And 'Westminster' is just a name to hang around it. It's by no means confined to the Political classes.

If you are interested, Google Elm House Guest list. If you are not, I don't blame you.

Thank you PTP and frankly I find the whole business vomit inducing, I know it will be sensational, but I think that somehow lots more elsewhere will come reveal itself at the same time, frankly I pity the PM who is on watch when it all comes out.

Smarmeron

@SquareRoot
Will it all come out? You would like to think so, but files get mislaid if it is convenient.

RobD

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:

Speedy said:

TheWatcher said:

MikeK said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I must agree with you in this SeanT, it's mighty suspicious that Ali died just when an investigation was about to focus on his doings with the Rotherham child abuse and rape horrors. It could be that this was an assassination attempt that succeeded, to prevent Ali from talking and spilling what he knew.

Assassination with a Corsa? Interesting method. Equally likely that he jumped in front of the car himself.

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/pedestrian-in-critical-condition-in-hospital-after-being-hit-by-car-in-sheffield-during-snowy-weather-1-7079411

During snowy weather.

During snowy weather or due to snowy weather.

That's what the local newspaper wrote on the day of the "accident".

One for Sunil:

"I believe in coincidences, coincidences happen every day. But I don't trust coincidences. "

Peter_the_Punter

Smarmeron said:

@SquareRoot
Will it all come out? You would like to think so, but files get mislaid if it is convenient.

There's too much out there, Smarmeron; too much material already in the hands of reliable journalists and police.

Pretty sure the current PM wouldn't attempt to suppress it. Not sure the next one would either, whoever it may be.

Smarmeron

@RobD
It wasn't necessarily coincidence, He might have been distracted by thinking about previous events (guilty or innocent it would be a worry) and misjudged the distance and speed of the car.

perdix

AndyJS said:

What I find distasteful is the way certain people seem to be trying to divert attention from Rotherham with cases such as those of Gary Glitter and Stuart Hall, as if they're at all comparable.

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

The lawyers are having a field day. A "plausible" number is one which relates to the number of rich individuals and organisations which can be sued to useful effect.

Smarmeron

@Peter_the_Punter
Times may have changed these days, but stupid "cover ups" are a forte of our masters.
For entirely personal reasons, I give you my favourite.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zircon_affair
Choose your own if you want.

Speedy

To all speculating about the "accident", may I remind you that it wasn't a hit and run as the police said the driver of the car was not injured, so presumably the driver stayed at the scene with the police.
So it's not a mystery man who hit him, the police presumably have his details.

Cyclefree

Neil said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

You'll be reassured to learn that the unfortunate Glasgow bus driver was a 58yo jock.

Neil: thanks for the debate on the previous thread. We will have to agree to differ. I had to go off and examine possible citrus trees which I'm considering buying.

RobD

Speedy said:

To all speculating about the "accident", may I remind you that it wasn't a hit and run as the police said the driver of the car was not injured, so presumably the driver stayed at the scene with the police.
So it's not a mystery man who hit him, the police presumably have his details.

Mind control?

another_richard

MP_SE said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I would hope that the local police will have conducted an extra thorough investigation. It is not like they can afford any more mistakes/oversights.

I am confident Rotherham will pick up Private Eye's Rotten Borough of the Year.

Just as you would have hoped that Rotherham council might have made an effort to clean up its act after the Jay report.

Except it didn't.

I very much doubt the mentality of the South Yorkshire plods is different.

Now this dead copper seems to have spent 18 years working in Rotherham and was under investigation by the IPCC.

Now even giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming that he was innocent and knew nothing there would still be plenty of people, both abusers and public service collaborators, who would have thought that he did know something and would be willing to name names to save himself.

AndyJS

Greater Manchester constituencies profiled:

http://www.mancunianmatters.co.uk/content/030272450-general-election-2015-greater-manchester-political-landscape-ahead-vote

SimonStClare

BBC (new) - "A woman has been arrested at Heathrow Airport for conspiracy to commit female genital mutilation (FGM).

The 42-year-old was about to board a flight travelling to Ghana via Amsterdam when she was held by officers carrying out an FGM awareness operation.

The woman, a British national born in Zimbabwe, was taken to a west London police station.

An eight-year-old girl with the woman was taken into social services' care"


After all the talk of this vile practice, are the authorities at last pulling their collective fingers out and doing something about it?

Smarmeron

@SeanT
"largely of Pakistani heritage"
Are you suggesting that Pakistanis are racially inclined to paedophilia?
Do a little research, it was rife well before they came in numbers.
You want sensation, I would just like justice for all the victims no matter who abused them.

SquareRoot

It requires the beautician who helped that poor man and raised loads for a new home to restore our faith in human nature, but we are constantly reminded of scum like this. I hope he goes down for a long time, or as long as they can legally send him down for.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-31173113

Pulpstar

The other thing is, we always find out later that "stuff" was going on in hte past.

That means quite simply that "stuff" is happening at the moment !

MikeK

SeanT said:

Going back to that harrowing 200,000 figure. We also need to know how many criminals this implies. Even if we estimate conservatively, and assume one criminal is responsible for five victims, that's still 40,000 men (and it could be many more).

40,000 rapists and groomers, largely of Pakistani heritage, waiting to go to court and do their time. The entire prison population of the UK is just 80,000 - suddenly it expands by half?

It's impossible. It would cause civil strife. Presumably this is another reason why the government is so reluctant to tackle it.

I guarantee that if UKIP were anywhere near power they would tackle it. Wether they would succeed in stamping out Pakistani/Muslim gang rape entirely is another matter, and would surely take more than a couple of years; but that they would attempt to tackle the problem is a resounding yes.

kle4

Smarmeron said:

@SeanT
"largely of Pakistani heritage"
Are you suggesting that Pakistanis are racially inclined to paedophilia?
Do a little research, it was rife well before they came in numbers.
You want sensation, I would just like justice for all the victims no matter who abused them.

I am sure everyone does, but convictions and investigations in recent years have identified a specific problem as well involving race (or more specifically a culture within our culture that flourished alarmingly), and that ignoring it, denying it, has been a continual problem as well.

nigel4england

SeanT said:

Some nutter on Twitter has just tweeted me saying that HMG tolerates the grooming gangs because there are pedophiles at all levels of the Establishment, and the gangs are funneling children to the politicians, for them to abuse.

Thing is, for a second I thought: he might be right. That's the scale of the madness.

I genuinely think that in Saville's case this is highly plausible

RobD

SeanT said:

Some nutter on Twitter has just tweeted me saying that HMG tolerates the grooming gangs because there are pedophiles at all levels of the Establishment, and the gangs are funneling children to the politicians, for them to abuse.

Thing is, for a second I thought: he might be right. That's the scale of the madness.

You'd have thought MI5 would be keeping tabs on MPs and members of the government.

Speedy

Smarmeron said:

@Peter_the_Punter
Times may have changed these days, but stupid "cover ups" are a forte of our masters.
For entirely personal reasons, I give you my favourite.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zircon_affair
Choose your own if you want.

Here's a list of just 10 cover ups.
http://people.howstuffworks.com/10-cover-ups-made-things-worse.htm#page=9

But my favourite scandal is MKULTRA, which inspired many Holywood movies in the 70's.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra

another_richard

another_richard said:

MP_SE said:

SeanT said:

TGOHF said:

MP_SE said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

fpt for PtP



So, go on then, mister Punter, give us a ballpark figure of the potential victims, if you think 1,000,000 is "implausible".

What number would be "plausible"?

Sincere question. If you're going to rule out one million, you must have some more "plausible" figure in mind. What is it?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11395663/PC-under-investigation-over-Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-dies-in-crash.html

"A police officer who was being investigated in relation to the Rotherham child sexual exploitation scandal has died following a car crash.

South Yorkshire Police said PC Hassan Ali, 44, died after he was involved in a collision in Sheffield last month when was off-duty.

It is understood that two complaints had been made about PC Ali, connected to the probe into sexual exploitation of children in Rotherham and he had been placed on restricted duties while the matter was being considered by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).

PC Ali, who had been with the South Yorkshire force for 18-years, had been on foot when he was hit by a car at around 10.15pm on Wednesday 28 January."

The police are not treating it as suspicious. Although if it is local plod that does not inspire confidence.

Police are treating it as convenient ?

The timing is quite surreal. Do Asian police officers regularly get run over in Rotherham, dying eight days later? Are we really going to just dismiss this as mere coincidence?

I feel my Inner Icke emerging.

I would hope that the local police will have conducted an extra thorough investigation. It is not like they can afford any more mistakes/oversights.

I am confident Rotherham will pick up Private Eye's Rotten Borough of the Year.

Just as you would have hoped that Rotherham council might have made an effort to clean up its act after the Jay report.

Except it didn't.

I very much doubt the mentality of the South Yorkshire plods is different.

Now this dead copper seems to have spent 18 years working in Rotherham and was under investigation by the IPCC.

Now even giving him the benefit of the doubt and assuming that he was innocent and knew nothing there would still be plenty of people, both abusers and public service collaborators, who would have thought that he did know something and would be willing to name names to save himself.

There's also the effect this death will have on anyone else considering naming names.

What's 'pour encourager les autres' translated into Urdu ?

Or into policespeak.

chestnut

Smarmeron said:

@SeanT
"largely of Pakistani heritage"
Are you suggesting that Pakistanis are racially inclined to paedophilia?
Do a little research, it was rife well before they came in numbers.
You want sensation, I would just like justice for all the victims no matter who abused them.

The issue is the racial profiling of victims.

If certain political movements hadn't promoted race as an aggravated circumstance in issues of wrongdoing, your point might be valid.

But it isn't if you go big on racism being worse than ..... being a paedophile.

another_richard

SimonStClare said:

BBC (new) - "A woman has been arrested at Heathrow Airport for conspiracy to commit female genital mutilation (FGM).

The 42-year-old was about to board a flight travelling to Ghana via Amsterdam when she was held by officers carrying out an FGM awareness operation.

The woman, a British national born in Zimbabwe, was taken to a west London police station.

An eight-year-old girl with the woman was taken into social services' care"


After all the talk of this vile practice, are the authorities at last pulling their collective fingers out and doing something about it?

Well they tried to organise a showtrial recently.

Unfortunately they picked an innocent man as the scapegoat.