Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
I assume any plan (note plan as opposed to unplanned chain of chaotic/ forced outcomes) to leave the Euro must: 1. Be done in absolute secrecy 2. In advance and left on a shelf ready to roll 3. Implemented lightning fast on a Friday night the moment the markets close 4. Accompanied by broader and immediate regs such as capital controls
Whether any garlic zone country will ever do this is debatable but they surely all have thought about it and have their plans locked in a safe ready for someone to push the nuclear button.
I'm just wondering if Syriza is indeed deadly serious and of the view that they cannot pay their debts and must be forgiven - and if they are not to be forgiven then pushing the nuclear button, defaulting, returning to the Drachma and getting on with life is about to happen. Interesting times.
Pity the average Greek who's voted Syriza, and is about to find out that the promises and expectation of bread and jam, are about to be revealed as stale pitta and rancid margarine.
You mean like those that voted for Hollande did ?
Yet Labour are on 34% - mind boggling.
Vested Interests - roughly the same as Syriza of course.
Is it possible that Greece will do a Scotland and just keep using the euro without being a part of the ECB? I hesitate to suggest that Syriza are as economically incompetent as the SNP but it must be a possibility. Surely someone else has to be that stupid.
As long as Greece does not have to borrow on the international markets they could in theory simply continue to circulate the euros they have but refuse to pay or play with the EU. My understanding is that they have a primary surplus at the moment but whether that would remain the case after a default like that is anyone's guess, probably not.
It is possible that they could have an economy like Panama and simply not have their own currency. Unlike Scotland they do not have a major financial services industry to protect although Cyprus might have a heart attack.
Unfortunately the Greeks will need Euros to buy goods from abroad - they run a chronic deficit - so the Euros will leave the country at a fast and furious rate. (The same is happening in the UK of course so the UK economy needs constant infusions of money - this comes from borrowing.)
Not exactly unsurprising it was about him, given his past is now well known, both in terms of being a paedo and also that he was a top spook (rather than his cover as a just a diplomat).
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
Queensland state election tomorrow, looks like a big swingback to Labour, with a potential pick-up of 27 seats or more predicted, and while the LNP may cling on leader Campbell Newman will likely lose his seat. If Queensland does go Labor, after Labor also won Victoria in November the writing is on the wall for Abbott and he would probably be toppled by Julie Bishop in a leadership spill
They really should put Dan Hodges in charge of Greece. Getting paid this many times for the same article is a true economic miracle.
There is definitely a market in telling people things they want to believe - so I think Greece has already followed that strategy, and he can stick to utilizing it here at home.
In all fairness, I actually think Dan Hodges is a pretty good writer. He is obsessively focused on a certain topic, and I should think it has worked out pretty well for him as there has been a market for people wanting to hear what he is saying, but even to say the same basic things over and over again without boring even those who want to hear that message, requires a certain skill.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
Why can' t the lefties just rob all the rich people's bank accounts a la Cyprus to pay for everything?
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
That assumes the Greeks hold blank plates to print Euros, and have access to the means and materials to print them. De La Rue in Overton are hardly going to hand over the goods willy nilly.
Queensland state election tomorrow, looks like a big swingback to Labour, with a potential pick-up of 27 seats or more predicted, and while the LNP may cling on leader Campbell Newman will likely lose his seat. If Queensland does go Labor, after Labor also won Victoria in November the writing is on the wall for Abbott and he would probably be toppled by Julie Bishop in a leadership spill
MD/Pulpstar I think in the end most Greeks will be glad to be free of it and the ECB and Merkel
The problem is not letting them leave the Euro. The problem is *making* them leave the Euro. You can't make them hand the plates back unless violently.
Here's a question. If Scotland had left the UK and started printing notes that looked exactly like sterling...how would you stop them? Rule of law? They'll ignore it.
Greece have got a modern air force (paid for by us), a sense of entitlement, no adult responsibility, an enormous debt and a printing press. How you gonna stop them?
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
Why can' t the lefties just rob all the rich people's bank accounts a la Cyprus to pay for everything?
Because the rich people moved their money long ago.
Socrates, if you're around, I've been out so haven't seen if you replied. I posted that I liked the consistency of your position re. gay marriage. It's people who are inconsistent who irk and alarm me because they are often driven by a different agenda than the one they propound e.g. some kippers who profess a libertarian agenda but whose real motivation seems to be driven by harking back to some mythical golden age of England, it seems to me. In other words, they pick and mix the liberties they like and discard the ones they don't.
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
That assumes the Greeks hold blank plates to print Euros, and have access to the means and materials to print them. De La Rue in Overton are hardly going to hand over the goods willy nilly.
I was under the impression that hey did have plates: I know the Euro isn't printed in one place, so I assumed one of them was in Greece. If not, I apologise.
Now what happens if they just wrote very large cheques...?
MD/Pulpstar I think in the end most Greeks will be glad to be free of it and the ECB and Merkel
The problem is not letting them leave the Euro. The problem is *making* them leave the Euro. You can't make them hand the plates back unless violently.
Here's a question. If Scotland had left the UK and started printing notes that looked exactly like sterling...how would you stop them? Rule of law? They'll ignore it.
Greece have got a modern air force (paid for by us), a sense of entitlement, no adult responsibility, an enormous debt and a printing press. How you gonna stop them?
Change the design of Euro notes, and any markers in the paper.
Any plates the Greeks have (assuming that they do), will have a Greek national identifier. All other Euro countries announce that they'll exchange Greek notes until a particular date.
After that who's going to accept old style notes with a twee picture of the Parthenon on them?
Kle4 Indeed, the irony if Bishop topples Abbott after Gillard toppled Rudd and then vice versa. Abbott will probably survive if the LNP cling on despite a big swing against them, but he will be on probation until the NSW election at the end of March. His decision to award Prince Philip a knighthood over any Australian candidate did not exactly help his , nor has the Coalition's deeper than expected spending cuts
They really should put Dan Hodges in charge of Greece. Getting paid this many times for the same article is a true economic miracle.
There is definitely a market in telling people things they want to believe - so I think Greece has already followed that strategy, and he can stick to utilizing it here at home.
In all fairness, I actually think Dan Hodges is a pretty good writer. He is obsessively focused on a certain topic, and I should think it has worked out pretty well for him as there has been a market for people wanting to hear what he is saying, but even to say the same basic things over and over again without boring even those who want to hear that message, requires a certain skill.
They really should put Dan Hodges in charge of Greece. Getting paid this many times for the same article is a true economic miracle.
There is definitely a market in telling people things they want to believe - so I think Greece has already followed that strategy, and he can stick to utilizing it here at home.
In all fairness, I actually think Dan Hodges is a pretty good writer. He is obsessively focused on a certain topic, and I should think it has worked out pretty well for him as there has been a market for people wanting to hear what he is saying, but even to say the same basic things over and over again without boring even those who want to hear that message, requires a certain skill.
Viewcode Well if the ECB no longer makes policy concerning Greece and Tspiras makes his own policies regardless they will be out of the Euro in all but name
I do like the irony of Germany telling Greece it should not get debt forgiveness when the entire German Economic Miracle was built on the foundation of 100% external debt forgiveness (and considerable internal debt forgiveness).
If Greece is willing to be bombed flat, its army surrendered or killed, its housing destroyed, and to be occupied by the Brits, Americans and Russians, then I am perfectly happy for 50% of their debt to be written off. Deal?
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
The fact that we're even talking about using violence as a way of stopping whatever might be going in Greece is testament to what a lousy idea the euro, as currently constituted, is.
They really should put Dan Hodges in charge of Greece. Getting paid this many times for the same article is a true economic miracle.
There is definitely a market in telling people things they want to believe - so I think Greece has already followed that strategy, and he can stick to utilizing it here at home.
In all fairness, I actually think Dan Hodges is a pretty good writer. He is obsessively focused on a certain topic, and I should think it has worked out pretty well for him as there has been a market for people wanting to hear what he is saying, but even to say the same basic things over and over again without boring even those who want to hear that message, requires a certain skill.
He is sunk if Miliband wins.
No !
Why Ed Miliband PM is a disaster for Ed Miliband.
There's chapters left to write yet
More sunk if DOESN'T win tbh ;p
There are no doubt other opportunities - what Labour MUST do to recover from the disastrous reign of Red Ed - but that will probably not be as appealing to the fans of his current niche.
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
That assumes the Greeks hold blank plates to print Euros, and have access to the means and materials to print them. De La Rue in Overton are hardly going to hand over the goods willy nilly.
I was under the impression that hey did have plates: I know the Euro isn't printed in one place, so I assumed one of them was in Greece. If not, I apologise.
Now what happens if they just wrote very large cheques...?
I just checked. Yup, there is a press. It's in Greece. It's owned by the bank of Greece. And syriza are forcing out the head of the bank.
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
Eh? the idea is that Greece would print Euros without ECB. These wouldn't be legal tender and so would be worthless surely?
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
That assumes the Greeks hold blank plates to print Euros, and have access to the means and materials to print them. De La Rue in Overton are hardly going to hand over the goods willy nilly.
I was under the impression that hey did have plates: I know the Euro isn't printed in one place, so I assumed one of them was in Greece. If not, I apologise.
Now what happens if they just wrote very large cheques...?
I just checked. Yup, there is a press. It's in Greece. It's owned by the bank of Greece. And syriza are forcing out the head of the bank.
Oh, shitttt....
I find it hard to believe that ECB didn't plan for a Euro country bailing out, going rogue, and printing their own from locally held plates.
Keep an eye out for bank note printers racking up production not of Greek notes but new Euro's for everyone else. And like I said, Athenian notes will have a national ident of some kind.
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
The fact that we're even talking about using violence as a way of stopping whatever might be going in Greece is testament to what a lousy idea the euro, as currently constituted, is.
Nope , it is more a testament to how mentally unstable some of you Euro haters are .
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
That assumes the Greeks hold blank plates to print Euros, and have access to the means and materials to print them. De La Rue in Overton are hardly going to hand over the goods willy nilly.
I was under the impression that hey did have plates: I know the Euro isn't printed in one place, so I assumed one of them was in Greece. If not, I apologise.
Now what happens if they just wrote very large cheques...?
I just checked. Yup, there is a press. It's in Greece. It's owned by the bank of Greece. And syriza are forcing out the head of the bank.
Oh, shitttt....
I find it hard to believe that Germany didn't plan for another Euro country bailing out, and printing their own from locally held plates.
Keep an eye out for bank note printers racking up production not of Greek Euro's but new Euro's for everyone else. And like I said, Athenian notes will have a national ident of some kind.
Euro bank notes have identical designs on both sides. Coins do have a national side showing which country issued them.
Er, I just labeled somebody's post as off topic by accident. Apols, mods...:-(
You can undo that by clicking on flag and pressing off topic again.
Rob - there's a problem with your poll listing.
There are 4 YouGov/Sun polls this week but you are only listing 3 - you've missed the one ending on 27 Jan but then you've got the dates wrong on the last 2 so it's all a muddle.
I think you need to check all 4 polls again from scratch.
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
My money is on Jeb at the moment.
All things are possible, just like I don't see Hillary winning the primaries, let alone the election. She is so 1990s, the world has just left her behind. Many of the people (particularly the males) who voted for her in the 2008 primaries now vote Republican. The only reason she is the front runner is that no-one else with any substance has entered the race. Yet. The moment they do, Hillary is in deep do-do. The activist base and the (rump) Congressional Dem caucuses are way to the left of her.
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
That assumes the Greeks hold blank plates to print Euros, and have access to the means and materials to print them. De La Rue in Overton are hardly going to hand over the goods willy nilly.
I was under the impression that hey did have plates: I know the Euro isn't printed in one place, so I assumed one of them was in Greece. If not, I apologise.
Now what happens if they just wrote very large cheques...?
I just checked. Yup, there is a press. It's in Greece. It's owned by the bank of Greece. And syriza are forcing out the head of the bank.
Oh, shitttt....
I find it hard to believe that Germany didn't plan for another Euro country bailing out, and printing their own from locally held plates.
Keep an eye out for bank note printers racking up production not of Greek Euro's but new Euro's for everyone else. And like I said, Athenian notes will have a national ident of some kind.
Euro bank notes have identical designs on both sides. Coins do have a national side showing which country issued them.
They do have a serial number, which starts with a country code. Look out for 'Y' if Greece start printing them as some PBers have suggested. The question would be whether the plates the Greeks have allow them to change the beginning of the serial number.
Dair is correct. It is entirely possible for the Greek state to print its own internal currency whilst not technically departing the Euro. The resultant new currency (let's call it the "shit" for obvious reasons) would be worthless, but if you're a Greekpublic servant that's their problem. This solution is workable, eminently capitalist, and easy to achieve. This is why syriza won't do it.
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
The fact that we're even talking about using violence as a way of stopping whatever might be going in Greece is testament to what a lousy idea the euro, as currently constituted, is.
Nope , it is more a testament to how mentally unstable some of you Euro haters are .
Decent result for the yellows in St Albans last night - reckon any chance of it going yellow at the GE ?
Socrates, if you're around, I've been out so haven't seen if you replied. I posted that I liked the consistency of your position re. gay marriage. It's people who are inconsistent who irk and alarm me because they are often driven by a different agenda than the one they propound e.g. some kippers who profess a libertarian agenda but whose real motivation seems to be driven by harking back to some mythical golden age of England, it seems to me. In other words, they pick and mix the liberties they like and discard the ones they don't.
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
In which case you are wrong. There are plenty of us on here who are both UKIP supporters and strongly pro gay equality in all walks of life.
Er, I just labeled somebody's post as off topic by accident. Apols, mods...:-(
You can undo that by clicking on flag and pressing off topic again.
Rob - there's a problem with your poll listing.
There are 4 YouGov/Sun polls this week but you are only listing 3 - you've missed the one ending on 27 Jan but then you've got the dates wrong on the last 2 so it's all a muddle.
I think you need to check all 4 polls again from scratch.
Thanks! I often put placeholder dates if I see the poll reported here on PB before I see it on the wiki list. Sometimes I forget to go back and change it. I appreciate your diligence.
Er! Why can't a EU country have it's own subsidiary currency? Even in the UK, retail establishments can accept any currency they wish as long as there is a exchange rate on show (not legally required, but polite). There are areas within the UK that have there own local currencies.
TimT We were told it was going to be a midwestern governor in 2012 too, instead it was the next in line, Romney, the runner up in 2012. In 2008 it was McCain, the runner-up in 2000, in 2000 George W Bush, who had money and name recognition, in 1996 Dole, the runner-up in 1988, in 1998 Bush, the runner-up in 1980 etc. If the GOP pick an establishment frontrunner again it will be Bush or Christie, one of whom will win New Hampshire, if not they will pick Paul or Cruz, one of whom will probably win Iowa and/or South Carolina. I can't see Rubio winning either Iowa or NH or even getting in the top 2
TimT Also wrong on Hillary, she will win Iowa and NH comfortably and quickly wrap up the nomination, her only likely opponent is Sanders. You also forgot more moderates and centrists vote in the Democratic primaries than liberals, a contrast to the GOP primaries which are dominated by conservatives
Debt forgiveness was on the table for SYRIZA and Greece. The offer was going to be (roughly):
1. Extension of debt maturity 2. Reduction of interest payments 3. Some linkage of payments to GDP (so, a coupon of 1.5% while GDP is x, increasing to 1.75% at GDP * 1.1, etc.) 4. A reduction in the required primary budget surplus and 5. An EIB-led investment programme in Greece
However, these are all dependent on Greece staying on the fiscal straight and narrow. And SYRIZA has done nothing but veer from the straight and narrow.
Let me give you an example: SYRIZA increased the minimum wage 10% today. That will sure help with improving the competitive position of Greek exports.
TimT We were told it was going to be a midwestern governor in 2012 too, instead it was the next in line, Romney, the runner up in 2012. In 2008 it was McCain, the runner-up in 2000, in 2000 George W Bush, who had money and name recognition, in 1996 Dole, the runner-up in 1988, in 1998 Bush, the runner-up in 1980 etc. If the GOP pick an establishment frontrunner again it will be Bush or Christie, one of whom will win New Hampshire, if not they will pick Paul or Cruz, one of whom will probably win Iowa and/or South Carolina. I can't see Rubio winning either Iowa or NH or even getting in the top 2
HYUFD The reason the sun rises in the East every day is not because it has always risen in the East in the past. Ask that of the turkey who is fed every morning until he isn't because it's the week before Thanksgiving. The sun rises because of gravity, not past history. If you want to predict who will be the candidate, you need a better theory than past practice, you need something that explains why past practice is the way it is.
I admit I got it wrong on Romney, but history has shown that he was indeed the wrong candidate for the GOP. It was a very winnable election that his nomination meant the party lost. And that much was clear before his nomination.
There is zero energy or enthusiasm around the thought of Hillary. Maybe the Dems will be happy with that as the GOP was with Romney in '12. If they are, more fools them.
Socrates, if you're around, I've been out so haven't seen if you replied. I posted that I liked the consistency of your position re. gay marriage. It's people who are inconsistent who irk and alarm me because they are often driven by a different agenda than the one they propound e.g. some kippers who profess a libertarian agenda but whose real motivation seems to be driven by harking back to some mythical golden age of England, it seems to me. In other words, they pick and mix the liberties they like and discard the ones they don't.
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
I appreciate the nod. I wouldn't define myself as a libertarian, but I think a general classical liberal framework with the "no harm" principle is a good frame of reference. The right to pursue happiness is a natural one, and I think being able to marry the person you love is something all people deserve unless there's a seriously good argument against it. I also support marriage on conservative grounds: it's one of the "little platoons" that gives community and stability to individuals and society as a whole.
I would also agree that child pornography is rightly banned as something that causes tremendous suffering to others. These sorts of crimes against children I find particularly heinous because they destroy lives before they have really started, and can really psychologically damage someone just as their personality is forming. Having personally known victims of child abuse, and seen the burden they carry, it's something I feel particularly keenly.
I know we've had our disputes but, for what it's worth, I admire your ability to come on here and take the flack from a lot of us. My aggressive reactions are usually limited on here to people who throw the bigot card around in order to stop debate. I find that it's a tactic that has been used for far too long in order delegitimise certain points of view, and I dislike it tremendously. For that reason I feel that people who use the tactic deserve a tongue-lashing in return, but I'm always willing to let bygones be bygones.
NO its used to point out the ILLEGITIMACEY of certain points of view in the same way that UKIP has racist elements with in. It matters not that other parties also have , to me its much more pronounced from the pool from which UKIP draws its votes.
TimT Also wrong on Hillary, she will win Iowa and NH comfortably and quickly wrap up the nomination, her only likely opponent is Sanders. You also forgot more moderates and centrists vote in the Democratic primaries than liberals, a contrast to the GOP primaries which are dominated by conservatives
O'Malley will be her chief opponent. I think he will surprise people by how well he does, but won't beat her.
On the Republican side, I think it'll likely be Walker. Ohio will be a tight call, but I can't see him beating Clinton in Florida. She's going to do very well among the elderly, New York expats and Hispanics down there. The Republicans are going to have do three points better in Florida than they did against Obama, and this was despite Obama doing terribly among Florida's disproportionately older population.
Did you have any input with the SNP's currency plans ?
I'm not in the SNP. And I'm not advocating the use of Dual Currency. All I'm doing is explaining that much like Citizen's Income, dismissing an economic policy because you don't understand and find it alien is ridiculous.
These Tories don't like intelligent debate , they prefer "SNP bad"
As for the Democratic caucus in Congress being to the left of Clinton, not really. She got a DW-NOMINATE score of -0.43 (out of -1 to 1, left to right) for her last term in Congress. The last Democratic House got an average of -0.4. Senate Democrats averaged a -0.39.
TimT And if that Turkey watched his fellow Turkeys every thanksgiving he would see what fate awaited him. Romney cut Obama's margin of victory in half in 2012 and was the best candidate of those who stood. The GOP nomination will come down to whichever moderate wins New Hampshire, probably Christie or Bush, versus whichever conservative wins Iowa and/or South Carolina, probably Cruz or Paul.
As for the Democrats, Hillary is the only candidate who beats the GOP top-tier in the polls, which is why she is there only chance for victory and why she will easily be the nominee with a token Sanders candidacy to her left
Er, I just labeled somebody's post as off topic by accident. Apols, mods...:-(
You can undo that by clicking on flag and pressing off topic again.
Rob - there's a problem with your poll listing.
There are 4 YouGov/Sun polls this week but you are only listing 3 - you've missed the one ending on 27 Jan but then you've got the dates wrong on the last 2 so it's all a muddle.
I think you need to check all 4 polls again from scratch.
Thanks! I often put placeholder dates if I see the poll reported here on PB before I see it on the wiki list. Sometimes I forget to go back and change it. I appreciate your diligence.
You don't need place holder dates for YouGov, the midweek ones are always conducted on the day of release and the previous day, except for the Sunday Times one which is Thurs-Fri.
It's probably best to google a bit before posting misleading stuff.
Why don't you pop over to Lib Dem voice and see how many of those lunatics still think we should join the Single Currency. Here is one to start you off.
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
Other than Walker, who is there?
Iowa: Brandstad, no way presidential material Illinois: Rauner, barely any experience Indiana: Pence, very interesting to my mind but not a purple state Michigan: Snyder, not really anything special about him Ohio: Kasich, has been in two minds about Obamacare so won't get through primaries
Er, I just labeled somebody's post as off topic by accident. Apols, mods...:-(
You can undo that by clicking on flag and pressing off topic again.
Rob - there's a problem with your poll listing.
There are 4 YouGov/Sun polls this week but you are only listing 3 - you've missed the one ending on 27 Jan but then you've got the dates wrong on the last 2 so it's all a muddle.
I think you need to check all 4 polls again from scratch.
Thanks! I often put placeholder dates if I see the poll reported here on PB before I see it on the wiki list. Sometimes I forget to go back and change it. I appreciate your diligence.
You don't need place holder dates for YouGov, the midweek ones are always conducted on the day of release and the previous day, except for the Sunday Times one which is Thurs-Fri.
Yeah, I try to be sensible in choosing dates, but sometimes (like when I am working at ~9,000ft), I get stupid!
As for the Democratic caucus in Congress being to the left of Clinton, not really. She got a DW-NOMINATE score of -0.43 (out of -1 to 1, left to right) for her last term in Congress. The last Democratic House got an average of -0.4. Senate Democrats averaged a -0.39.
Socrates, was talking about this Congress, not the last one.
Socrates, if you're around, I've been out so haven't seen if you replied. I posted that I liked the consistency of your position re. gay marriage. It's people who are inconsistent who irk and alarm me because they are often driven by a different agenda than the one they propound e.g. some kippers who profess a libertarian agenda but whose real motivation seems to be driven by harking back to some mythical golden age of England, it seems to me. In other words, they pick and mix the liberties they like and discard the ones they don't.
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
I appreciate the nod. I wouldn't define myself as a libertarian, but I think a general classical liberal framework with the "no harm" principle is a good frame of reference. The right to pursue happiness is a natural one, and I think being able to marry the person you love is something all people deserve unless there's a seriously good argument against it. I also support marriage on conservative grounds: it's one of the "little platoons" that gives community and stability to individuals and society as a whole.
[…]
For that reason I feel that people who use the tactic deserve a tongue-lashing in return, but I'm always willing to let bygones be bygones.
Me too (the latter comment) and I've been more guilty than you of lashing out. I think I'm beginning to understand your perspective and, as I say, admire your consistency. Excellent first paragraph, if I may say. I shall tread more soberly with your posts henceforth.
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
Other than Walker, who is there?
Iowa: Brandstad, no way presidential material Illinois: Rauner, barely any experience Indiana: Pence, very interesting to my mind but not a purple state Michigan: Snyder, not really anything special about him Ohio: Kasich, has been in two minds about Obamacare so won't get through primaries
Pence has, I think, already ruled himself out. Kasich and Snyder have both been manoeuvring. Of those, I'd say Snyder is the more likely, but you are right, Walker is the one with the 3 straight victories in four years.
As for the Democratic caucus in Congress being to the left of Clinton, not really. She got a DW-NOMINATE score of -0.43 (out of -1 to 1, left to right) for her last term in Congress. The last Democratic House got an average of -0.4. Senate Democrats averaged a -0.39.
Socrates, was talking about this Congress, not the last one.
They lost 6% of their seats. Not going to make much difference.
Socrates, if you're around, I've been out so haven't seen if you replied. I posted that I liked the consistency of your position re. gay marriage. It's people who are inconsistent who irk and alarm me because they are often driven by a different agenda than the one they propound e.g. some kippers who profess a libertarian agenda but whose real motivation seems to be driven by harking back to some mythical golden age of England, it seems to me. In other words, they pick and mix the liberties they like and discard the ones they don't.
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
In which case you are wrong. There are plenty of us on here who are both UKIP supporters and strongly pro gay equality in all walks of life.
I'm incredibly encouraged. It's not exactly a mainstay of UKIP policy though, I think you would agree? I've read quite a lot of tirades about Cameron citing this very issue, but I think he got it right. I loathed Tony Blair in many ways but on social policy I think he brought a much needed corrective to the Thatcher economic revolution.
TimT Also wrong on Hillary, she will win Iowa and NH comfortably and quickly wrap up the nomination, her only likely opponent is Sanders. You also forgot more moderates and centrists vote in the Democratic primaries than liberals, a contrast to the GOP primaries which are dominated by conservatives
O'Malley will be her chief opponent. I think he will surprise people by how well he does, but won't beat her.
On the Republican side, I think it'll likely be Walker. Ohio will be a tight call, but I can't see him beating Clinton in Florida. She's going to do very well among the elderly, New York expats and Hispanics down there. The Republicans are going to have do three points better in Florida than they did against Obama, and this was despite Obama doing terribly among Florida's disproportionately older population.
O'Malley's is very presentable and has the gift of the gab. I would have seen him as a serious contender. But, his problem is that he couldn't even win MD in 2014. That bodes really badly for the GE. (OK, I know he wasn't on the ballot, but he was. And it was the Dem's worst shock of a very bad night for them).
Socrates, if you're around, I've been out so haven't seen if you replied. I posted that I liked the consistency of your position re. gay marriage. It's people who are inconsistent who irk and alarm me because they are often driven by a different agenda than the one they propound e.g. some kippers who profess a libertarian agenda but whose real motivation seems to be driven by harking back to some mythical golden age of England, it seems to me. In other words, they pick and mix the liberties they like and discard the ones they don't.
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
In which case you are wrong. There are plenty of us on here who are both UKIP supporters and strongly pro gay equality in all walks of life.
I'm incredibly encouraged. It's not exactly a mainstay of UKIP policy though, I think you would agree? I've read quite a lot of tirades about Cameron citing this very issue, but I think he got it right. I loathed Tony Blair in many ways but on social policy I think he brought a much needed corrective to the Thatcher economic revolution.
Depends on the social policy. Gay rights? Absolutely. Mass immigration? Complete disaster. Multiculturalism? Complete disaster. Acceptance of family breakdown as being positive diversity? Complete disaster.
The thousands of rioters in 2011 were Blair's children. As are the hundreds of British jihadis fighting for ISIS.
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
Other than Walker, who is there?
Iowa: Brandstad, no way presidential material Illinois: Rauner, barely any experience Indiana: Pence, very interesting to my mind but not a purple state Michigan: Snyder, not really anything special about him Ohio: Kasich, has been in two minds about Obamacare so won't get through primaries
Forget about governors for the White House. The office of governor in any state leads to decisions made that always gives ammunition to those opposed to you. A governor can't pretend he is a blank slate.
PfP - deal! Sorry long day at work.. I expect to lose the bet - I'm on Con Minority - but let's make it fun :-)
Hi Casino - good to do biz with you - slightly confused by your wording above "I'm on Con Minority", here you're on a Con + LibDem Coalition! ...... I assume you are referring to another position. I take it you're happy not to have to involve PtP to confirm on this occasion. Good Reasonable luck with this!
Socrates, if you're around, I've been out so haven't seen if you replied. I posted that I liked the consistency of your position re. gay marriage. It's people who are inconsistent who irk and alarm me because they are often driven by a different agenda than the one they propound e.g. some kippers who profess a libertarian agenda but whose real motivation seems to be driven by harking back to some mythical golden age of England, it seems to me. In other words, they pick and mix the liberties they like and discard the ones they don't.
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
In which case you are wrong. There are plenty of us on here who are both UKIP supporters and strongly pro gay equality in all walks of life.
I'm incredibly encouraged. It's not exactly a mainstay of UKIP policy though, I think you would agree? I've read quite a lot of tirades about Cameron citing this very issue, but I think he got it right. I loathed Tony Blair in many ways but on social policy I think he brought a much needed corrective to the Thatcher economic revolution.
I think it is clear that just like the other parties UKIP is a very broad church. Socrates and I share many similar values and differ on any things. My (probably vain) hope is that the small state libertarian view will prevail but in the meantime I am content to support them on the basis of their BOO position with regards Rd to the EU.
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
Other than Walker, who is there?
Iowa: Brandstad, no way presidential material Illinois: Rauner, barely any experience Indiana: Pence, very interesting to my mind but not a purple state Michigan: Snyder, not really anything special about him Ohio: Kasich, has been in two minds about Obamacare so won't get through primaries
Forget about governors for the White House. The office of governor in any state leads to decisions made that always gives ammunition to those opposed to you. A governor can't pretend he is a blank slate.
Senators can, if they vote wisely.
Except Senators, the present incumbent excepted, don't do well in Presidential elections as the do not have the executive experience that the electorate seems to want.
I can't believe that people are talking about the US presidential race without looking at polling. Talk like: "O'Maley has a chance" "Rubio is going to win" is on par with "Tim Pawlenty is going to win" in 2012.
Romney's decision not to run makes it likely either Jeb Bush or Christie will be the GOP nominee next year in my view. It also makes it a little more likely Hillary will be president as he is the GOP candidate who has ever led her in a general election poll. It will not be a midwestern governor, the GOP nominee is almost always the next in line candidate or the one with name recognition who hoovers up the cash. A radical candidate like Cruz or Paul is more likely if the GOP decides to go for ideological purity as it occasionally does ie 1964 and Goldwater
Next in line is Ryan, and he wisely has chosen to stay in the House. Christie will not be the candidate, nor will Jeb. Both have the name recognition already, but have failed to separate themselves from the pack, so they will only move backwards from here. Rubio has a chance if the establishment gets behind him, the obvious attraction being his Latin roots, although they are Cuban rather than Mexican or Central American, so I don't think it helps as much with the demographic as some would think. A Mid Western governor, on the other hand, would be mainstream Establishment and conservative with a track record of winning State-wide office in a purple state, while also cementing the working class white vote. An awful lot of attractions there for the GE while also offering a clear path to primary success.
Other than Walker, who is there?
Iowa: Brandstad, no way presidential material Illinois: Rauner, barely any experience Indiana: Pence, very interesting to my mind but not a purple state Michigan: Snyder, not really anything special about him Ohio: Kasich, has been in two minds about Obamacare so won't get through primaries
Forget about governors for the White House. The office of governor in any state leads to decisions made that always gives ammunition to those opposed to you. A governor can't pretend he is a blank slate.
Senators can, if they vote wisely.
Except Senators, the present incumbent excepted, don't do well in Presidential elections as the do not have the executive experience that the electorate seems to want.
Actually governors have been dominant in the period between 1884 and 1956, since 1960 it's Vice Presidents, however in the last 3 elections you have Senators having the majority of presidential nominees, it's not a trend yet, but if 2016 it's Hillary then it's a trend.
I think the shift has to do with the media, before TV local governors that dominated the local press had much greater weight, since TV you need a more national figure (hence VP's) and with the internet the balance is leaning more towards the congressional voting drama (hence Senators).
I can't believe that people are talking about the US presidential race without looking at polling. Talk like: "O'Maley has a chance" "Rubio is going to win" is on par with "Tim Pawlenty is going to win" in 2012.
Sarah Palin News @SarahPalinLinks 9m9 minutes ago 150 years after sinking, Confederate submarine slowly reveals its secrets | http://fxn.ws/1wJlTQY #TenthAmendment
Sarah Palin News @SarahPalinLinks 9m9 minutes ago 150 years after sinking, Confederate submarine slowly reveals its secrets | http://fxn.ws/1wJlTQY #TenthAmendment
Standard practice. Incumbents will seek to avoid challengers being seen on an equal footing. UKIP MPs elected in 2015 will probably do the same in 2020.
Jack W - I am convinced the opposite that even if she runs Hilary will never be president.
America has a long history of retreads but in recent years only new candidates have won - Bill Clinton then Bush Jr then Obama. Several retreads have tried in that time including McCain and Romney and lost
In the era of attack ads, Hilary still has too much baggage both from her own previous run and from Bill's presidency. It is much easier to find a new candidate with less baggage.
Even if she wins the Democratic nomination, the GOP may take the White House. Bear in mind that Obama is not overwhelmingly popular and the Dems will have to defend his record (particularly Obamacare)
Standard practice. Incumbents will seek to avoid challengers being seen on an equal footing. UKIP MPs elected in 2015 will probably do the same in 2020.
Carswell and Reckless swerved a debate each already, but they were big odds on
Doyle-Price is about 6/1 3rd fav you would think she'd throw everything at it
Sarah Palin News @SarahPalinLinks 9m9 minutes ago 150 years after sinking, Confederate submarine slowly reveals its secrets | http://fxn.ws/1wJlTQY #TenthAmendment
What do you mean: "you asked for it?" I posted a a tweet about a Confederate Sub; the first sub ever to sink a ship. Nothing to do with Sara Palin, except she thought it important to tweet.
You, @Speedy, are a really stupid berk, showing only a hatred of things that you do not understand.
Comments
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/open-jihad-declared-in-egypt-following-state-dept-meeting-with-muslim-brotherhood-aligned-leaders/ … Open Jihad Declared in Egypt Following State Dept. Meeting with Muslim Brotherhood-Aligned Leaders
Unfortunately what syriza might do is print euro paper a l'outrance without ECB permission, beggaring the currency. If determined to do that it would be difficult to stop them except violently. So the rest of the EU would be faced with either going to war with Athens or seeing their savings deflated. Whilst I would quite like France to nuke Athens (if nothing else, it would improve the architecture) I can't see it happening...
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/reachtel-52-48-to-lnp-in-queensland-3/
In all fairness, I actually think Dan Hodges is a pretty good writer. He is obsessively focused on a certain topic, and I should think it has worked out pretty well for him as there has been a market for people wanting to hear what he is saying, but even to say the same basic things over and over again without boring even those who want to hear that message, requires a certain skill.
Here's a question. If Scotland had left the UK and started printing notes that looked exactly like sterling...how would you stop them? Rule of law? They'll ignore it.
Greece have got a modern air force (paid for by us), a sense of entitlement, no adult responsibility, an enormous debt and a printing press. How you gonna stop them?
I like your consistency. (Even if I do feel you drone on sometimes.) Am I right, then, in thinking that how you draw the line on liberties is when they infringe on the liberties and rights of others? You can't use the law as your plumb line because it's an ass at times, according to you I think? So that infringement of the rights of others would be how you would draw the line at, say, child pornography (a subject I know you feel keenly, as do I)? That's not a question of the rights of someone to view such images, but because they are made out of inflicting terrible suffering on innocents. Am I right in understanding your weltenschaung?
I wish, frankly, that some of your fellow kippers were as consistent as you. I doubt many of them share your sentiments on gay marriage?
Now what happens if they just wrote very large cheques...?
Doesn't each country have unique euros in terms of design? I could be wrong, but that was my impression. If so, they'd just do the same.
Any plates the Greeks have (assuming that they do), will have a Greek national identifier. All other Euro countries announce that they'll exchange Greek notes until a particular date.
After that who's going to accept old style notes with a twee picture of the Parthenon on them?
Why Ed Miliband PM is a disaster for Ed Miliband.
There's chapters left to write yet
More sunk if DOESN'T win tbh ;p
Oh, shitttt....
Keep an eye out for bank note printers racking up production not of Greek notes but new Euro's for everyone else. And like I said, Athenian notes will have a national ident of some kind.
In the Blue corner, Germany - In the Red corner Greece. A bare knuckle fight ensues.
There are 4 YouGov/Sun polls this week but you are only listing 3 - you've missed the one ending on 27 Jan but then you've got the dates wrong on the last 2 so it's all a muddle.
I think you need to check all 4 polls again from scratch.
Debt forgiveness was on the table for SYRIZA and Greece. The offer was going to be (roughly):
1. Extension of debt maturity
2. Reduction of interest payments
3. Some linkage of payments to GDP (so, a coupon of 1.5% while GDP is x, increasing to 1.75% at GDP * 1.1, etc.)
4. A reduction in the required primary budget surplus
and
5. An EIB-led investment programme in Greece
However, these are all dependent on Greece staying on the fiscal straight and narrow. And SYRIZA has done nothing but veer from the straight and narrow.
Let me give you an example: SYRIZA increased the minimum wage 10% today. That will sure help with improving the competitive position of Greek exports.
I admit I got it wrong on Romney, but history has shown that he was indeed the wrong candidate for the GOP. It was a very winnable election that his nomination meant the party lost. And that much was clear before his nomination.
There is zero energy or enthusiasm around the thought of Hillary. Maybe the Dems will be happy with that as the GOP was with Romney in '12. If they are, more fools them.
I would also agree that child pornography is rightly banned as something that causes tremendous suffering to others. These sorts of crimes against children I find particularly heinous because they destroy lives before they have really started, and can really psychologically damage someone just as their personality is forming. Having personally known victims of child abuse, and seen the burden they carry, it's something I feel particularly keenly.
I know we've had our disputes but, for what it's worth, I admire your ability to come on here and take the flack from a lot of us. My aggressive reactions are usually limited on here to people who throw the bigot card around in order to stop debate. I find that it's a tactic that has been used for far too long in order delegitimise certain points of view, and I dislike it tremendously. For that reason I feel that people who use the tactic deserve a tongue-lashing in return, but I'm always willing to let bygones be bygones.
NO its used to point out the ILLEGITIMACEY of certain points of view in the same way that UKIP has racist elements with in. It matters not that other parties also have , to me its much more pronounced from the pool from which UKIP draws its votes.
"Joining euro unlikely in my lifetime, says Clegg"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-14984235
On the Republican side, I think it'll likely be Walker. Ohio will be a tight call, but I can't see him beating Clinton in Florida. She's going to do very well among the elderly, New York expats and Hispanics down there. The Republicans are going to have do three points better in Florida than they did against Obama, and this was despite Obama doing terribly among Florida's disproportionately older population.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/sep/14/liberaldemocrats.eu
"Liberals ditch promise to join the euro"
It's probably best to google a bit before posting misleading stuff.
As for the Democratic caucus in Congress being to the left of Clinton, not really. She got a DW-NOMINATE score of -0.43 (out of -1 to 1, left to right) for her last term in Congress. The last Democratic House got an average of -0.4. Senate Democrats averaged a -0.39.
As for the Democrats, Hillary is the only candidate who beats the GOP top-tier in the polls, which is why she is there only chance for victory and why she will easily be the nominee with a token Sanders candidacy to her left
Jim Webb is a very good dark horse for the Dems, anti-war candidates have an edge.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-britain-should-join-the-euro-30692.html
Iowa: Brandstad, no way presidential material
Illinois: Rauner, barely any experience
Indiana: Pence, very interesting to my mind but not a purple state
Michigan: Snyder, not really anything special about him
Ohio: Kasich, has been in two minds about Obamacare so won't get through primaries
The thousands of rioters in 2011 were Blair's children. As are the hundreds of British jihadis fighting for ISIS.
The office of governor in any state leads to decisions made that always gives ammunition to those opposed to you.
A governor can't pretend he is a blank slate.
Senators can, if they vote wisely.
Good Reasonable luck with this!
Rd to the EU.
Talk like: "O'Maley has a chance" "Rubio is going to win" is on par with "Tim Pawlenty is going to win" in 2012.
Looks like a superior Ukrainian force in danger of being surrounded in the Vuhlehirsk pocket by speznatz and local forces.
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-347-at-least-seven-dead-in-shelling-attacks/#6602
I think the shift has to do with the media, before TV local governors that dominated the local press had much greater weight, since TV you need a more national figure (hence VP's) and with the internet the balance is leaning more towards the congressional voting drama (hence Senators).
O'Maley poll average:1.2%
Kasich poll average:2.4%
Pawlenty before he dropped out in 2011: 4%
Hillary Clinton Will Be The 45th President Of The United States
(maybe Jim Davidson is playing that night)
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 5m5 minutes ago
If I was CCHQ & wanting to stop Ukip I might be doing something about this -> http://www.yourthurrock.com/Doyle-Price-ducks-General-Election-debate-Ukip-s/story-25949130-detail/story.html …
Are you a fortune teller oh wise one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlCnlRDfc8I
150 years after sinking, Confederate submarine slowly reveals its secrets | http://fxn.ws/1wJlTQY #TenthAmendment
I believe it's between Romney, Bush and someone who could be any of Carson, Huckabee or Paul.
But we don't know until the debates start and that's in another 8 months from now:
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-republican-primary-debate-schedule/
And with that, goodnight.
So the final 2016 update for tonight will include Sarah Palin, you asked for it, watch the video and scream:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/01/27/jon_stewart_mocks_iowa_summit_of_a_lot_of_republicans_who_will_never_be_president.html
UKIP MPs elected in 2015 will probably do the same in 2020.
America has a long history of retreads but in recent years only new candidates have won - Bill Clinton then Bush Jr then Obama. Several retreads have tried in that time including McCain and Romney and lost
In the era of attack ads, Hilary still has too much baggage both from her own previous run and from Bill's presidency. It is much easier to find a new candidate with less baggage.
Even if she wins the Democratic nomination, the GOP may take the White House. Bear in mind that Obama is not overwhelmingly popular and the Dems will have to defend his record (particularly Obamacare)
"Standard practice. Incumbents will seek to avoid challengers being seen on an equal footing"
Unfortunately it also reduces the campaigns to stage managed and sterilized sound bites.
Doyle-Price is about 6/1 3rd fav you would think she'd throw everything at it
If so, I was going to ask when that book you were researching might be out? Before or after Chilcot?
You, @Speedy, are a really stupid berk, showing only a hatred of things that you do not understand.