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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mood of Tory optimism shows itself on the betting marke
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mood of Tory optimism shows itself on the betting markets
With so any polls this week showing CON and LAB level-pegging or the blues ahead it’s inevitable that this was going to show on the betting markets. The money’s been going on them winning most seats and, as can be seen, there’s now quite a difference with the Labour price.
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I do fully expect labour most seats though, but at a seat situation where the house will be nigh on ungovernable.
a lot could depend on how much the lib dem seats in the south crumble to the tories (or not).
He feels Labour has left him.
Then you get the radicals seeing whats happening in europe, but there's no way in hell labour could ever become radical in that way.
Presumably he will issue a special manifesto for the English, given that he considers them equal to the Scots? Or will he have a double standard, lest giving the English attention as a nation only encourage "the most nationalistic people in the world"?
Its beginning to look like EICIPM is now only a 50% chance
"David Cameron still more trusted on NHS than Ed Miliband, survey shows"
It's a month old, but still..
This is weird Ed's trump card. Of course we're optimistic.
I'm not an economist but I could take a pretty good punt at question 3 with common sense and A-level maths. "Final year economics students" should be able to take it on easily.
Agreed. As I posted on the last thread though, the Scottish seat polls shouldn't make a difference to EdM's chances of becoming PM, yet his price has drifted along with the labour most seats price. That's the value bet right now.
I suspect there's some betting psychology going on here - tory punters can't *envisage* EdM as PM, and they can overenvisage Cameron as PM. Because he's already PM.
Back in early 2010, very few PB'ers could imagine a stable coalition lasting 5 years. Didn't ladbrokes or WH offer crazy odds on an election in 2015 at one point?
Probably infinity, given that leftism is not an evidence-based philosophy.
You've missed the latest Owl's post below.
The paddle option not having been taken up.
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/man/parties/scotslabmanifesto.pdf
What's new is Labour feel the need to advertise it.
Re Next London Mayor:
"All jesting aside, I think someone who can reach out with a bit of cross-party charm is a good bet. "
I quite agree and at such a short price, this guy seems a bit lacking in the charm offensive department to represent good value. In terms of value for money I far prefer the Postie at more than double the odds of 14/1 (various), plus he starts with the considerable advantage of being far better known by the General Public than Sadiq Khan and imho has the warm, likeable personality to more readily attract support from the majority of Londoners who, like yours truly for instance, are not Labour supporters. I'm not sure that the likes of OGH and PtP fully appreciate this aspect.
The fundamental question is whether we should:
(a) trust the main markets - which can be overly influenced by uninformed sentiment
or (b) trust the seat markets - which can be very laggy in terms of reacting to changes in the big picture
But the reality is that Cameron could win 310 seats and STILL have no chance of forming a government because most of his legislative programme and definitely his budget would be outvoted by Labour + SNP + Plaid and if needed + Green + SDLP + Alliance.
When you consider how likely the 3 to 5 Kippers would be to cause mischief, the idea of Cameron even trying to be PM in a minority government is pretty hard to imagine.
There really are only two possible Stable Governments from the current polling (even with some movement to Tory) and that is Labour backed by SNP/Plaid and Grand Coalition.
The only thing mine is leaving is the Championship.
(1) Will Russia help? If oil was $115/barrel, then yes, I think they would. The Russians definitely want a warm water port, and the there is a Serb-Russian-Greek orthodox commonality that means that there's a lot of cultural sympathy. (And Russia really wants to stick two fingers up at the West.) However, Russia is becoming rapidly poorer. It's debt just got cut to junk. The combination of low oil prices and sanctions is biting into its economy, and (frankly) I just don't believe the GDP and industrial production numbers. I don't believe Russia has the $100bn or so lying around that would be needed to bail out Greece (and that's assuming they tell the IMF and the EU to f*ck off, and just prop up the local banks).
(2) Can Greece 'electronically print' Euros? No, it can't. There is no mechanism for the Greek government to manufacture Euros electronically. That being said, it would be theoretically possible (if, again, in breach of treaty obligations, and the charter of the Bank of Greece) for the Bank of Greece to conjure up new Euros and use them to buy assets out of Greek banks. However, I think in that circumstance, the rest of the world would refuse to recognise the holdings of Greek banks for the purposes of transfers. They might be able to call them "Euros", but the rest of the world would call them "New Drachma".
(3) What does this mean for Potemas in Spain? I think it's important to recognise a few differences between Spain and Greece. In Greece, about 65% of the parties voted for in the elections were "anti-bailout". SYRIZA, the Independent Greeks, the Communists, Golden Dawn. Pro-bailout parties were really just New Democracy and (perhaps) Potemi. In Spain, parties representing 65+% of the electorate are "pro-austerity". And the Spanish economy is growing again pretty quickly. (They announced 4Q GDP growth of 0.7% today, which will be first or second best in Europe - depending on whether Ireland beats them.) Unemployment, although still horribly high, is coming down quickly, and while Southern Spain is still pretty awful, much of the rest of the country is doing OK. Potemas is marooned on about 25% in the polls, and I can't see any of the other parties (certainly not the Catalans or the Basques or the PP, and probably not PSOE, wanting to enter into a coalition with them). For that reason, I'd say Spain following the path of Greece is pretty unlikely. But events may change this, of course.
If Postie stands, he walks it. But is he standing? I think not, but if I'm wrong please correct me straight away, preferably by private email.
I just make the point because it seems to show how irrational political views can be. Others consider Ed a crypto marxist and as far from tory-lite as you can get.
Casino - did you see my reply on the previous thread to your betting proposal last night. Please let me know if you wish to proceed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/11379157/Banning-ritual-slaughter-would-be-a-victory-for-racists.html
Job done.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/30/russia-may-need-to-say-do-svidaniya-to-belarus/?utm_content=buffer301f8&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
When he started apearing alongside Portillo on the Andrew Neill weekly TV prog (name?), this made me wonder whether he was seeking to lift his public profile in preparation for a tilt at the MoL job.
Btw both his recent autobiographies are superb reads - his innate charm really shines through.
For a purer arb, with much more chance of copping both sides, consider Tory seats around the 1/7-1/8 mark - Staffordshire Moorlands, Rugby, Reading East. Though you'll tie up a lot of capital using this strategy!
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-qa-ban-kosher-halal-slaughter/17877
Quite why such labelling is not routine beats me.
What a foolish woman.
He would have made a strong contender for the Party Leadership and certainly has all the credentials and more for Mayor. But there is not a whisper of it - not here, not from any of my spies.
If I hear differently you will of course be the first to know. [Clears throat.] But until then we just have to assume the guy isn't running.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
But with the internet & particularly social media, politicians are expected to display an inhuman level of ideological consistency - every conversation with a voter is potentially recorded and twitterized.
I almost feel sorry for 'em.
EDIT: and of course, the range of outcomes for the election has narrowed as time has passed. NOM looks about right to me, if anything just a touch short. Though I know some posters think 1.3 is too big.
In a strange way the mere thought of halal slaughter makes me want to eat less meat of any kind, so I wouldn't say it is an entirely bad thing
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
"•There is now increasing evidence that the Conservative vote is not moving up as we would normally expect in the run up to an Election. This means our expectation of the Conservative’s final position has been dampened. We are seeing some evidence that the Conservative vote is beginning to rise, which might cause us to remove our dampening of Conservative expectations."
A bit contradictory but I personally see a lot more evidence to support the first sentence than the second. Labour have been on a long tem declining trend with a breather in December. But the tory share is still pretty static.
At the moment it seems likely to me that the tories will win the most votes but most seats is completely up for grabs and largely depends on Scotland. I think that the Conservative supporters are getting a bit carried away with themselves.
The "Havengore" today recreated the river procession of Winston Churchill. The boat has now been fully restored to its original condition and very well done to those responsible.
However there is one very significant difference between the boat that carried Winston Churchill's coffin 50 years ago and the boat that transited the Thames today.
What is it?
(..... And no it's not that Churchill was present or anyone else for that matter.)
Anyone that gets the answer right ( the answer I am thinking off and quite obvious really ) I will make a donation of £25 to a charity of their choice. PB to be sent the receipt as proof.
Travelling at the moment but will check back later.
Moses
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
They are comparing UKIP to Hitler? Perhaps they should also teach them Godwin's law.
Seriously though - we are at the pre-election weigh in - Cam looks in reasonable shape and has a horseshoe or two in his gloves.
Ed's underweight and his trainer and coach are squaring up to each other.
Not surprising blues are taking the most money in bets.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/london-mayoral-elections-alan-johnson-isnt-standing-sadiq-khan-says-he-might-david-lammy-definitely-will-and-as-for-boris-johnson-8771501.html
I became a bit stuck trying to calculate the uncertainty, in the weekly averages, as I couldn't remember how to properly combine the uncertainties in each individual poll into an uncertainty in the mean of several polls. So I don't know how significant the increase is.
No denying that it's been a good polling week for the Conservatives, though.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-claim-panicked-tories-offering-5071828#ICID=sharebar_twitter
UKIP claim panicked Tories are offering them election deals if they 'call off the dogs'
It's alleged Tory activists are defying their party’s campaign chief's orders in a bid to secure key marginals across the country.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
Mike, that's the Daily Mirror.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-31057005
For Question 2
Does everyone else get
σ = 4γN^1.5
Just seeing the memorial events for the anniversary of the death and funeral of Churchill, has made me realise the paucity of political leadership that the UK has suffered since then.
That looks more like a student's presentation to me.
Surely the double exclamation marks are the giveaway.
I agree, it seems near impossible to me. The likely make up of the House of Commons after the election will be:
Labour inclined: Plaid (3), SDLP (3), SNP (33), Green (1), Lady Hermon (1). Farron led Lib Dems (29)
Tory inclined: DUP (9) UKIP (9) Clegg led Lib Dems (29)
If the Conservatives have 280 odd seats they'd be trying to run a government on a maximum base of 327 if Clegg stays. Even if it was a temporary arrangement before a second election, it'd struggle to pass anything.
They are comparing UKIP to Hitler? Perhaps they should also teach them Godwin's law.
Godwin's Law doesn't say what most people think it says.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who wrote the slide?
Was it a pupil as part of a presentation?
If so what Mark was given?
If it was a prepared lesson from a teacher you may have a point until you can prove that though it would be better to break the habit of jumping on every UKIP bandwagon.
Surely the double exclamation marks are the giveaway.
Well, precisely.
Without context, the slide is meaningless. It's kinda funny the use of hashtags, and the twitter account itself indicates a certain crossover between EDL & UKIP support. The "racist" line is blurry, isn't it?
Maybe they're not neo-Nazis but their friends are:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nigel-farage-strikes-alliance-with-farright-mep-who-joked-about-hitler-and-beating-women-9807995.html
Fun fact, I have been in a discussion with Mike Godwin, he's now a first-class IP lawyer. And a big Doctor Who fan! (Despite living in the States.)
Apparently when he tells his daughter to tidy her room, she compares him to Hitler.
http://www.ciwf.org.uk/our-campaigns/slaughter/
The above claims that a lot of halal slaughter already involves effective stunning of the animal to be slaughtered, which suggests that the exemption on religious grounds can be removed.