[3:55pm] mnemonic1: i've never been godwinned out of a thread myself, but .... [3:55pm] mnemonic1: my daughter likes to compare me to hitler when she's mad
I'm starting to be of the opinion that even if Miliband gets 5-10 more seats than Cameron he won't be able to put a coalition together and Cameron will remain PM in a minority government.
If Labour + SNP + Plaid > 323 then no, he won't. Nothing in current polling suggests that number won't happen so the chance of Cameron being PM without at least another 4% movement in the polling is pretty slim.
I can't imagine that being stable if it's close to 323. The amount of porl barrelling and deals labour would have to do would rip apart both the union and the labour party.
It may well do.
But the reality is that Cameron could win 310 seats and STILL have no chance of forming a government because most of his legislative programme and definitely his budget would be outvoted by Labour + SNP + Plaid and if needed + Green + SDLP + Alliance.
When you consider how likely the 3 to 5 Kippers would be to cause mischief, the idea of Cameron even trying to be PM in a minority government is pretty hard to imagine.
There really are only two possible Stable Governments from the current polling (even with some movement to Tory) and that is Labour backed by SNP/Plaid and Grand Coalition.
I agree, it seems near impossible to me. The likely make up of the House of Commons after the election will be: Labour inclined: Plaid (3), SDLP (3), SNP (33), Green (1), Lady Hermon (1). Farron led Lib Dems (29) Tory inclined: DUP (9) UKIP (9) Clegg led Lib Dems (29)
If the Conservatives have 280 odd seats they'd be trying to run a government on a maximum base of 327 if Clegg stays. Even if it was a temporary arrangement before a second election, it'd struggle to pass anything.
I suspect regardless of leader, the Lib Dems will be under exceptionally strong party pressure (from all those ex-MPs and failed candidates) to take a neutral stance on both the Tories and Labour, hence they would asbtain from all budget votes.
Effectively if there are 24 Lib Dems left, the Hypotehtical Majority becomes 311. 4 UKIP and 8 DUP means that to at least attempt to govern, Cameron needs 299 seats, much higher than can be seriously contemplated on current polling.
It's also important to note that this makes Scotland irrelevant to Cameron's chance - SNP or Labour wins make no difference to his chance of being PM
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
Yes, that's almost certainly true.
Although, interestingly enough, on World Bank numbers, the proportion of Spaniards aged 16+ in employment is now actually higher than it was at the beginning of 1999 when Spain joined the Euro.
He would have made a strong contender for the Party Leadership and certainly has all the credentials and more for Mayor. But there is not a whisper of it - not here, not from any of my spies.
If I hear differently you will of course be the first to know. [Clears throat.] But until then we just have to assume the guy isn't running.
I thought Alan Johnson has already said, firmly, that he's not running. See, for example, here:
I see the Ruble has drifted over 70 to the dollar (after being sort-of-stable at 65 for a while). It may well end up at a similar exchange rate to the old Drachma. POVPWAS.
I see the Ruble has drifted over 70 to the dollar (after being sort-of-stable at 65 for a while). It may well end up at a similar exchange rate to the old Drachma. POVPWAS.
Just seeing the memorial events for the anniversary of the death and funeral of Churchill, has made me realise the paucity of political leadership that the UK has suffered since then.
If you excised Churchill's premiership between May 1940 & December 1941, you'd get a fair idea of the paucity of political leadership that the UK suffered from in the past as well.
I suspect regardless of leader, the Lib Dems will be under exceptionally strong party pressure (from all those ex-MPs and failed candidates) to take a neutral stance on both the Tories and Labour, hence they would asbtain from all budget votes.
Effectively if there are 24 Lib Dems left, the Hypotehtical Majority becomes 311. 4 UKIP and 8 DUP means that to at least attempt to govern, Cameron needs 299 seats, much higher than can be seriously contemplated on current polling.
It's also important to note that this makes Scotland irrelevant to Cameron's chance - SNP or Labour wins make no difference to his chance of being PM
(a) If you can't contemplate the Tories getting 299 seats, you need to contemplate harder. All the evidence is that current polling won't be the same as May polling.
(b) If the SNP abstain, then the hypothetical majority drops even further to c. 295. Assuming they'll support Labour is a very big assumption.
Anyhow, good luck with your Next Government betting. Personally Con Minority @ 11/2 looks the value and should be favourite.
With these numbers if LD, DUP, UKIP abstain, Dave can govern with a minority government.
No, because abstention only counts 50%. With the 44 Lib/DUP/Kippers in your scenario, Call me Dave still needs 301 MPs to pass his legislation and budget.
I see the Ruble has drifted over 70 to the dollar (after being sort-of-stable at 65 for a while). It may well end up at a similar exchange rate to the old Drachma. POVPWAS.
Perhaps they should join the Euro...
I'm sure Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia would welcome them into the EU with open arms.
I'm starting to be of the opinion that even if Miliband gets 5-10 more seats than Cameron he won't be able to put a coalition together and Cameron will remain PM in a minority government.
If Labour + SNP + Plaid > 323 then no, he won't. Nothing in current polling suggests that number won't happen so the chance of Cameron being PM without at least another 4% movement in the polling is pretty slim.
I can't imagine that being stable if it's close to 323. The amount of porl barrelling and deals labour would have to do would rip apart both the union and the labour party.
It may well do.
But the reality is that Cameron could win 310 seats and STILL have no chance of forming a government because most of his legislative programme and definitely his budget would be outvoted by Labour + SNP + Plaid and if needed + Green + SDLP + Alliance.
When you consider how likely the 3 to 5 Kippers would be to cause mischief, the idea of Cameron even trying to be PM in a minority government is pretty hard to imagine.
There really are only two possible Stable Governments from the current polling (even with some movement to Tory) and that is Labour backed by SNP/Plaid and Grand Coalition.
I see the Ruble has drifted over 70 to the dollar (after being sort-of-stable at 65 for a while). It may well end up at a similar exchange rate to the old Drachma. POVPWAS.
Perhaps they should join the Euro...
"Kaliningrad is the testicle of Russia. Every time I want the Russians to scream, I squeeze on Kaliningrad!"
With these numbers if LD, DUP, UKIP abstain, Dave can govern with a minority government.
No, because abstention only counts 50%. With the 44 Lib/DUP/Kippers in your scenario, Call me Dave still needs 301 MPs to pass his legislation and budget.
That's what happens when you've only had 2 hours sleep.
Personally I find this a bit bizarre. Recent polling has shown the tories are now level with Labour but they are not clearly ahead. The comments from Professor Fisher this morning included this: "•There is now increasing evidence that the Conservative vote is not moving up as we would normally expect in the run up to an Election. This means our expectation of the Conservative’s final position has been dampened. We are seeing some evidence that the Conservative vote is beginning to rise, which might cause us to remove our dampening of Conservative expectations."
A bit contradictory but I personally see a lot more evidence to support the first sentence than the second. Labour have been on a long tem declining trend with a breather in December. But the tory share is still pretty static.
At the moment it seems likely to me that the tories will win the most votes but most seats is completely up for grabs and largely depends on Scotland. I think that the Conservative supporters are getting a bit carried away with themselves.
You need to factor in the freemasons and the lizard people at Bildenberg fixing the voting so that capitalist interests are protected.
Seriously though - we are at the pre-election weigh in - Cam looks in reasonable shape and has a horseshoe or two in his gloves.
Ed's underweight and his trainer and coach are squaring up to each other.
Not surprising blues are taking the most money in bets.
There is a surprising and growing lack of confidence on the Labour side. The perception that Ed is just not up to it is becoming more central. In contrast Cameron and the tories look more focussed and up for the fight. Completely irrelevant to the polling but PMQs and the Burnham emergency question were good examples of the aggression the tories are showing along with the disarray on the Labour side.
But the bottom line remains that if we have a draw Labour wins. And it is still looking like a draw to me.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
They all seem to be in London these days.
Ironic the Germans have screwed the Eurozone just when things were turning round, not enough carrot for the Greeks.
Contagion if they are expelled, precedent if they renegotiate.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
They all seem to be in London these days.
Ironic the Germans have screwed the Eurozone just when things were turning round, not enough carrot for the Greeks.
Contagion if they are expelled, precedent if they renegotiate.
Between March 1999, and December 2014, the number of people in employment in Germany rose by 10.1%.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
Of course falls in unemployment could be from people leaving the country and looking for work elsewhere.
If you assume consumption per head = output minus costs, and that maximal consumption is 'optimal' then you'll get C=(sig n^0.5 - gamma n^2). So c' = sig n^-0.5 -2 gamma n, and if there is a local maxima (or minima) then that'll be =0. So n satisfies sig=4 gamma n^1.5 as you state.
depending on the values of sigma and gamma this value might be a minima - so the worst possible size.
It's more 'trivial' than 'impossible', but is far more firmly in the 'load of old nonsense' camp.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
Of course falls in unemployment could be from people leaving the country and looking for work elsewhere.
Yes: and there is no doubt both Ireland and Spain have seen unemployment flattered by emigration.
With these numbers if LD, DUP, UKIP abstain, Dave can govern with a minority government.
No, because abstention only counts 50%. With the 44 Lib/DUP/Kippers in your scenario, Call me Dave still needs 301 MPs to pass his legislation and budget.
That's what happens when you've only had 2 hours sleep.
With these numbers if LD, DUP, UKIP abstain, Dave can govern with a minority government.
I think I need to get my head around the internal LD & SNP procedures for agreeing whether to enter coalition or confidence & supply. This could have big betting implications on the morning of may 8th.
Clegg would, IIRC, have to have the support of the LD parliamentary party and federal executive. What would they get out of supporting a CON/UKIP/DUP minority government? I doubt this would even be on the cards without some significant concession.
As for the SNP, there's already a bit of confusion over potential coalition negotiations - Would any agreement be subect to a vote of their westminster MP's, MP's & MSP's or all party members?
The betting markets seem to have entirely embraced the idea that Ed won't win - You can back him to be PM post May at 2.30+.
Assuming that it becomes clear he won't win then I wonder where votes might finish up. I've rather assumed that the LDs will have a night of horrors, and that the Greens and UKIP will do well-ish, but not really surprise anyone. However IF there is a dead-in-the-water Labour camp then it really could get very wacky for the minor parties.
This may become simply an election about where Labour's vote finishes up. My money's with UKIP.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
They all seem to be in London these days.
Ironic the Germans have screwed the Eurozone just when things were turning round, not enough carrot for the Greeks.
Contagion if they are expelled, precedent if they renegotiate.
Between March 1999, and December 2014, the number of people in employment in Germany rose by 10.1%.
What is the equivalent number for Spain?
Spain benefited from fiscal transfers to develop their infastructure however this was malinvestment that created an illusory boom that leaves only monuments to folly.
Germany wants, on the other hand, the advantages of the single currency and an unchanging exchange rate with its “customer” countries. The bad loans their banks made to Greece have not had to be realised and the losses have been socialised, the Greeks however remain insolvent.
UKIP claim panicked Tories are offering them election deals if they 'call off the dogs' It's alleged Tory activists are defying their party’s campaign chief's orders in a bid to secure key marginals across the country.
I think you have to take into account that story from what is now the most nakedly partisan paper of all of them
I'm starting to be of the opinion that even if Miliband gets 5-10 more seats than Cameron he won't be able to put a coalition together and Cameron will remain PM in a minority government.
If Labour + SNP + Plaid > 323 then no, he won't. Nothing in current polling suggests that number won't happen so the chance of Cameron being PM without at least another 4% movement in the polling is pretty slim.
I can't imagine that being stable if it's close to 323. The amount of porl barrelling and deals labour would have to do would rip apart both the union and the labour party.
It may well do.
But the reality is that Cameron could win 310 seats and STILL have no chance of forming a government because most of his legislative programme and definitely his budget would be outvoted by Labour + SNP + Plaid and if needed + Green + SDLP + Alliance.
When you consider how likely the 3 to 5 Kippers would be to cause mischief, the idea of Cameron even trying to be PM in a minority government is pretty hard to imagine.
There really are only two possible Stable Governments from the current polling (even with some movement to Tory) and that is Labour backed by SNP/Plaid and Grand Coalition.
Fewer UKIP wins, more SNP wins, could be quite close to the mark.
We did have a grand coalition of sorts during the Great Depression, but I would expect that Labour and Conservatives would find it easier to agree on a second election than on forming a government.
Perhaps if an autumn election failed to clarify the situation we might have a grand coalition. Maybe.
It would pretty much kill the Labour party, though, wouldn't it? Almost their entire electoral pitch is to vote Labour to stop the Tories. Forming a coalition with the enemy would make Clegg's decision to enter coalition with Cameron look like an act of supreme self-kindness in comparison.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
Nice try, but there are considerably more skilled trolls than you on here.
If you assume consumption per head = output minus costs, and that maximal consumption is 'optimal' then you'll get C=(sig n^0.5 - gamma n^2). So c' = sig n^-0.5 -2 gamma n, and if there is a local maxima (or minima) then that'll be =0. So n satisfies sig=4 gamma n^1.5 as you state.
depending on the values of sigma and gamma this value might be a minima - so the worst possible size.
It's more 'trivial' than 'impossible', but is far more firmly in the 'load of old nonsense' camp.
2nd derivatives
σ' = d/dN 4γN^1.5
σ' = 3γN^0.5/2 indicates that providing the sign of γ and σ are the same it is a maxima.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
They all seem to be in London these days.
Ironic the Germans have screwed the Eurozone just when things were turning round, not enough carrot for the Greeks.
Contagion if they are expelled, precedent if they renegotiate.
Between March 1999, and December 2014, the number of people in employment in Germany rose by 10.1%.
What is the equivalent number for Spain?
Spain benefited from fiscal transfers to develop their infastructure however this was malinvestment that created an illusory boom that leaves only monuments to folly.
Germany wants, on the other hand, the advantages of the single currency and an unchanging exchange rate with its “customer” countries. The bad loans their banks made to Greece have not had to be realised and the losses have been socialised, the Greeks however remain insolvent.
I agree with you regarding bad loans to Greece, but you need to remember that Spain has a current account surplus, rather than a deficit.
And you need to remember that the Spanish economy in 2015 does not look anything like the economy in 1999 (or even 2007).
If you'd said - 20 years ago - that Spain would be the second largest car maker in Europe, you'd have been laughed at. But it is now. And on a per capita basis, it will probably pass Germany by the end of next year, once the new Nissan plant is up and running, and the Ford extension is finished. (Today, Spain is only behind Korea, Japan and Germany today on a per capita basis).
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
The four animals who beat that lecturer for fun in Wimbledon have gone down for a very long time (19,19,13,13 years respectively). No complaint about those sentences, apart from the defendents' solicitor, presumably.
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
Nice try, but there are considerably more skilled trolls than you on here.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
If it was done by a teacher, in a lesson, then that person should have no place teaching in a state school in the UK.
However, given all we have is a single image of a screen - with no indication of where it was taken, who produced the slide, or its context, then we should probably not rush to judgement.
Anyone want to strip the EXIF data out of the tweeted pic?
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
Nice try, but there are considerably more skilled trolls than you on here.
Spanish unemployment marginally increased in the last quarter.
Not according to my Bloomberg - it had unemployment peaking at 26.27% on 31/3/2013, and falling in every quarter since. The last quarter (to 31/12/14) it fell by 0.37%, to 23.80%.
The number of unemployed people is dropping faster than the number of people in employment is rising. I think the drop in unemployment is in part due to a higher inactivity rate, though the Spanish statistics website leaves a lot to be desired so it is not easy to work out. Employment is rising, but only looking at the improvement in unemployment doesn't look at the whole picture.
They all seem to be in London these days.
Ironic the Germans have screwed the Eurozone just when things were turning round, not enough carrot for the Greeks.
Contagion if they are expelled, precedent if they renegotiate.
Between March 1999, and December 2014, the number of people in employment in Germany rose by 10.1%.
What is the equivalent number for Spain?
Spain benefited from fiscal transfers to develop their infastructure however this was malinvestment that created an illusory boom that leaves only monuments to folly.
Germany wants, on the other hand, the advantages of the single currency and an unchanging exchange rate with its “customer” countries. The bad loans their banks made to Greece have not had to be realised and the losses have been socialised, the Greeks however remain insolvent.
I agree with you regarding bad loans to Greece, but you need to remember that Spain has a current account surplus, rather than a deficit.
And you need to remember that the Spanish economy in 2015 does not look anything like the economy in 1999 (or even 2007).
If you'd said - 20 years ago - that Spain would be the second largest car maker in Europe, you'd have been laughed at. But it is now. And on a per capita basis, it will probably pass Germany by the end of next year, once the new Nissan plant is up and running, and the Ford extension is finished. (Today, Spain is only behind Korea, Japan and Germany today on a per capita basis).
Probably would have happened without the Euro though. The building boom wouldn't have been so catastrophic, as with Ireland, due to the entirely wrong interest rate.
Poorer parts of Europe benefit from the EU, few benefit from the Euro.
Confidence is a massive part of the battle. Cameron, like everybody else, will have moments of self doubt. He knows if he fails to win twice history will be unkind and from his background he won't take that lightly.
Ed, on the other hand, comes from a very low expectation base, younger brother, underdog etc.
It will come down to nerve more than anything else
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
If it was done by a teacher, in a lesson, then that person should have no place teaching in a state school in the UK.
However, given all we have is a single image of a screen - with no indication of where it was taken, who produced the slide, or its context, then we should probably not rush to judgement.
Anyone want to strip the EXIF data out of the tweeted pic?No location data; taken this morning (unless it's the upload date)
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
Sorry, you'll have to hop off this outrage bus. Don't worry another will be along in a minute
Even quicker than I expected going from slacks link
As for the SNP, there's already a bit of confusion over potential coalition negotiations - Would any agreement be subect to a vote of their westminster MP's, MP's & MSP's or all party members?
The SNP Executive will already have made their decision for all potential outcomes, they will know exactly who they will support or not and what they will expect in return.
Part of the problem the London Establishment has in understanding the SNP is they think of them as some small, amateur outfit. In reality they are the most sophisticated political machine in the UK and a campaigning monster.
Probably would have happened without the Euro though. The building boom wouldn't have been so catastrophic, as with Ireland, due to the entirely wrong interest rate.
Poorer parts of Europe benefit from the EU, few benefit from the Euro.
I agree, and there is no doubt that the Euro caused ridiculous building booms in Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Ireland and Greece, due to inappropriately loose monetary policy.
Interestingly, we are now about to see a consumer boom in Germany - due to inappropriately loose monetary policy there.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 20m20 minutes ago More patients left on hospital trolleys in January alone than in previous two years combined http://tgr.ph/1BDLgsW
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
Did I accept it was done by a teacher?
I don't know, and neither do you.
I posed the question, who would want to be a teacher in a UK school when anything you say can be tweeted and subjected to the daily mail treatment?
Could well be wrong but I don't see why the Lab & SNP VI going from 34/2 to 31/5 makes a Tory govt more likely
Well the SNP score has no effect on Tory seats, whereas the Labour score does. As the latter is falling then there should be an uptick in Con seats outside of Scotland.
It only makes no difference if the SNP rise is solely at the expense of Labour, which it's not. Also the narrative of falling Labour helps the blues.
Telegraph Politics @TelePolitics · 20m20 minutes ago More patients left on hospital trolleys in January alone than in previous two years combined http://tgr.ph/1BDLgsW
More in 1 month than the previous 24? Fishy. Be piss-funny if the rise was solely due to Wales though...
Could well be wrong but I don't see why the Lab & SNP VI going from 34/2 to 31/5 makes a Tory govt more likely
Well the SNP score has no effect on Tory seats, whereas the Labour score does. As the latter is falling then there should be an uptick in Con seats outside of Scotland.
It only makes no difference if the SNP rise is solely at the expense of Labour, which it's not.
The Conservative vote share has barely been affected by the SNP 16.7% to 14% from memory.
Could well be wrong but I don't see why the Lab & SNP VI going from 34/2 to 31/5 makes a Tory govt more likely
Well the SNP score has no effect on Tory seats, whereas the Labour score does. As the latter is falling then there should be an uptick in Con seats outside of Scotland.
It only makes no difference if the SNP rise is solely at the expense of Labour, which it's not.
The Conservative vote share has barely been affected by the SNP 16.7% to 14% from memory.
Could well be wrong but I don't see why the Lab & SNP VI going from 34/2 to 31/5 makes a Tory govt more likely
Well the SNP score has no effect on Tory seats, whereas the Labour score does. As the latter is falling then there should be an uptick in Con seats outside of Scotland.
It only makes no difference if the SNP rise is solely at the expense of Labour, which it's not.
There's also a world of difference between a Con 285 Lab 290 SNP 10 result and a Con 285 Lab 270 SNP 30 result, in terms of how the LibDems (and others) might jump, purely in terms of perceived legitimacy.
For the same reason I think the final vote shares are important, even though it's seats that matter. If you had a government made up of the 2nd & 4th parties nationwide, with the SNP abstaining, that would play extraordinarily badly in England.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
Did I accept it was done by a teacher?
I don't know, and neither do you.
I posed the question, who would want to be a teacher in a UK school when anything you say can be tweeted and subjected to the daily mail treatment?
the link says it was a teacher.
Best to keep politics out of the classroom really.
"All jesting aside, I think someone who can reach out with a bit of cross-party charm is a good bet. "
snip
PtP appreciates it, PfP.
If Postie stands, he walks it. But is he standing? I think not, but if I'm wrong please correct me straight away, preferably by private email.
TBH Peter, I simply don't know, but it would surely be a superb way for him to end his career. I can't imagine why he wouldn't want it, unless of course he is "persuaded" otherwise. When he started apearing alongside Portillo on the Andrew Neill weekly TV prog (name?), this made me wonder whether he was seeking to lift his public profile in preparation for a tilt at the MoL job. Btw both his recent autobiographies are superb reads - his innate charm really shines through.
I could not disagree more. He does the sofa on The Week in Politics because of the easy money and the opportunity to peddle labour propaganda. Portillo is not an MP nor running for office and is a better objective observer. Johnson is a smooth talker but he has always run away for tough decisions. The FT at the time recorded his abject surrender over public sector pensions. ''The case for raising the public sector retirement age from 60 to 65 was "irrefutable", Alan Johnson said only last weekend. Yesterday, the trade and industry secretary described as a "sensible step" an agreement to allow public service workers to go on retiring with full pensions at 60. He gave no explanation for this volte-face, which will mean a staggering increase in the cost of public sector pensions, at a time when final-salary pensions are disappearing in the private sector''
The FT later on did point out why... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/197de6c4-403d-11da-8394-00000e2511c8.html#axzz3QJwFZwI5 ''...the government has caved in to the threat of a strike, despite its secure parliamentary majority. It has made this concession ahead of publication of the Pensions Commission report, closing off one large section of the pensions system to change. Meanwhile, it has put further pressure on the remaining private sector schemes by loading the cost of the Pension Protection Fund.''
In short I think Johnson is a total disgrace, but oh so typical of how Blair's government ran away from its avowed agenda.
Could well be wrong but I don't see why the Lab & SNP VI going from 34/2 to 31/5 makes a Tory govt more likely
Well the SNP score has no effect on Tory seats, whereas the Labour score does. As the latter is falling then there should be an uptick in Con seats outside of Scotland.
It only makes no difference if the SNP rise is solely at the expense of Labour, which it's not. Also the narrative of falling Labour helps the blues.
Its so heavily at the expense of Labour that it might as well all be
As for narratives... I reckon their influence is so over estimated you can make money by swimming against the tide every time a story comes out
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
Did I accept it was done by a teacher?
I don't know, and neither do you.
I posed the question, who would want to be a teacher in a UK school when anything you say can be tweeted and subjected to the daily mail treatment?The teacher concerned has now apologised.
I could see how doing something provocative like that might be useful to provoke discussion, though the quality of the English on the slide is shockingly poor, so I'm disappointed that it appears to have been produced by a teacher.
Also worth noting that the British Prime Minister himself described UKIP as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" in 2006 (when leader of the Opposition), and has failed to apologise for doing so. Is it really so outrageous for a teacher to produce material that is consistent with that public categorisation?
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
That looks more like a student's presentation to me.
Surely the double exclamation marks are the giveaway.
If UKIPs MEPs and officials did not spout their rubbish then they would not get associated with the BNP. But they tingtong jolly well do and the 'its all a joke' and 'rough diamond' excuses have worn a bit thin.
As for the SNP, there's already a bit of confusion over potential coalition negotiations - Would any agreement be subect to a vote of their westminster MP's, MP's & MSP's or all party members?
The SNP Executive will already have made their decision for all potential outcomes, they will know exactly who they will support or not and what they will expect in return.
Part of the problem the London Establishment has in understanding the SNP is they think of them as some small, amateur outfit. In reality they are the most sophisticated political machine in the UK and a campaigning monster.
They were the first party to use secret Canadians ...
I'm starting to be of the opinion that even if Miliband gets 5-10 more seats than Cameron he won't be able to put a coalition together and Cameron will remain PM in a minority government.
Very unlikely - I suspect that a good few LibDem MPs will refuse to back another Tory-led Govt even if Clegg wants to do so - even if the Tories are the largest party. I am thinking of the likes of Kennedy- Pugh - Sanders - George - Farron plus a few others.
@ReutersPolitics: BREAKING: Republican Romney says he will not run for U.S. presidency in 2016: Romney statement
Was he ever serious?!
Rand Paul stands out still as the best nominee the GOP can go for.
I don't think Rand Paul can get through the primaries. The establishment will block him, and he's not popular enough among the base to overcome that. Maybe in 2020.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
That looks more like a student's presentation to me.
Surely the double exclamation marks are the giveaway.
If UKIPs MEPs and officials did not spout their rubbish then they would not get associated with the BNP. But they tingtong jolly well do and the 'its all a joke' and 'rough diamond' excuses have worn a bit thin.
Before we get to the Labour losses in Scotland it is necessary to consider the implications of the collapse of the Scottish Liberal democrats:
Inverness: SNP Gordon: SNP NE Fife: probably SNP Orkney: Hold Edinburgh West: probably Labour Ross, Skye: probable hold, possible SNP Berwickshire: probably tory or SNP Argyll: SNP Kincardine: tory or SNP East Dumbartonshire: Labour Caithness: probable hold, possible SNP.
So it is not true to say that SNP gains are so heavily at the expense of Labour as to make others unimportant.
The implications of this are that a number of seats move from a party that has been in coalition with the tories for the last 5 years to a party that says it will not work with the tories at all. This seems to me to make a second tory minority government either on its own or in Coalition just that little bit less likely.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
That looks more like a student's presentation to me.
Surely the double exclamation marks are the giveaway.
If UKIPs MEPs and officials did not spout their rubbish then they would not get associated with the BNP. But they tingtong jolly well do and the 'its all a joke' and 'rough diamond' excuses have worn a bit thin.
They get associated with it because they're a threat to the Tory and Labour parties, whose supporters control the national press.
It is the big two parties that support heavy controls from black nations while allowing open immigration from most white ones.
The betting markets seem to have entirely embraced the idea that Ed won't win - You can back him to be PM post May at 2.30+.
Assuming that it becomes clear he won't win then I wonder where votes might finish up. I've rather assumed that the LDs will have a night of horrors, and that the Greens and UKIP will do well-ish, but not really surprise anyone. However IF there is a dead-in-the-water Labour camp then it really could get very wacky for the minor parties.
This may become simply an election about where Labour's vote finishes up. My money's with UKIP.
If Labour's vote finishes up with UKIP, there will be some weird and wacky Tory gains on the way to their overall majority...
Before we get to the Labour losses in Scotland it is necessary to consider the implications of the collapse of the Scottish Liberal democrats:
Inverness: SNP Gordon: SNP NE Fife: probably SNP Orkney: Hold Edinburgh West: probably Labour Ross, Skye: probable hold, possible SNP Berwickshire: probably tory or SNP Argyll: SNP Kincardine: tory or SNP East Dumbartonshire: Labour Caithness: probable hold, possible SNP.
So it is not true to say that SNP gains are so heavily at the expense of Labour as to make others unimportant.
The implications of this are that a number of seats move from a party that has been in coalition with the tories for the last 5 years to a party that says it will not work with the tories at all. This seems to me to make a second tory minority government either on its own or in Coalition just that little bit less likely.
I've got Edinburgh West chalked up as an SNP gain, largely agree with the others.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
Before we get to the Labour losses in Scotland it is necessary to consider the implications of the collapse of the Scottish Liberal democrats:
Inverness: SNP Gordon: SNP NE Fife: probably SNP Orkney: Hold Edinburgh West: probably Labour Ross, Skye: probable hold, possible SNP Berwickshire: probably tory or SNP Argyll: SNP Kincardine: tory or SNP East Dumbartonshire: Labour Caithness: probable hold, possible SNP.
So it is not true to say that SNP gains are so heavily at the expense of Labour as to make others unimportant.
The implications of this are that a number of seats move from a party that has been in coalition with the tories for the last 5 years to a party that says it will not work with the tories at all. This seems to me to make a second tory minority government either on its own or in Coalition just that little bit less likely.
I personally think it was a mis-step by Nicola Sturgeon to say she would never work with the Tories.
If she had said she will work with the party that bids most to Scotland for Scottish votes in Westminster - "and if that is the Tories crawling to us on their belly, so be it..." I think she would have kept far more flexibility in the negotiations.
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
I went to speak to 100 students at the university today - apparently they invited AS too but her office said "It is not usually Anna Soubry's policy to share a platform with Nick Palmer". Is this a general pattern with sitting Tory MPs in line with Cameron's evasion tactics, or are some engaging in debates? (Genuine question, I don't actually know.)
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
I reckon that Tsipras shorted the Greek banks, and will cash in his winnings on Monday and retire to the Bahamas...
OK, I don't really. I think he thinks that the IMF and Germany will blink.
Any while it's possible they'll come up with more sweeties than previously, I just don't think they will.
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
I went to speak to 100 students at the university today - apparently they invited AS too but her office said "It is not usually Anna Soubry's policy to share a platform with Nick Palmer". Is this a general pattern with sitting Tory MPs in line with Cameron's evasion tactics, or are some engaging in debates? (Genuine question, I don't actually know.)
Comments
Apparently when he tells his daughter to tidy her room, she compares him to Hitler.
I'm sceptical of that last anecdote. It sounds like Godwin's Lore to me.
F1: Ferrari aim for two wins this year:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31057118
http://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/IRC_office_hours/Office_hours_2010-06-11
OK what he actually said was
[3:55pm] mnemonic1: i've never been godwinned out of a thread myself, but ....
[3:55pm] mnemonic1: my daughter likes to compare me to hitler when she's mad
Effectively if there are 24 Lib Dems left, the Hypotehtical Majority becomes 311. 4 UKIP and 8 DUP means that to at least attempt to govern, Cameron needs 299 seats, much higher than can be seriously contemplated on current polling.
It's also important to note that this makes Scotland irrelevant to Cameron's chance - SNP or Labour wins make no difference to his chance of being PM
Although, interestingly enough, on World Bank numbers, the proportion of Spaniards aged 16+ in employment is now actually higher than it was at the beginning of 1999 when Spain joined the Euro.
With these numbers if LD, DUP, UKIP abstain, Dave can govern with a minority government.
My memory failed me. I knew there had to be some good reason why I hadn't backed him.
I see the Ruble has drifted over 70 to the dollar (after being sort-of-stable at 65 for a while). It may well end up at a similar exchange rate to the old Drachma. POVPWAS.
Con 33.1
Lab 33.0
UKIP 15.1
LD 7.2
Grn 6.3
Other thing to note - Greens now 0.9% behind LDs, were only 0.4% last week...
Perhaps they should join the Euro...
(b) If the SNP abstain, then the hypothetical majority drops even further to c. 295. Assuming they'll support Labour is a very big assumption.
Anyhow, good luck with your Next Government betting. Personally Con Minority @ 11/2 looks the value and should be favourite.
http://thinkingliberal.co.uk/?p=1281
But the bottom line remains that if we have a draw Labour wins. And it is still looking like a draw to me.
Ironic the Germans have screwed the Eurozone just when things were turning round, not enough carrot for the Greeks.
Contagion if they are expelled, precedent if they renegotiate.
What is the equivalent number for Spain?
depending on the values of sigma and gamma this value might be a minima - so the worst possible size.
It's more 'trivial' than 'impossible', but is far more firmly in the 'load of old nonsense' camp.
I think you have just hit on why DC will never be PM again after 7/5/15
Lab steady
UKIP up
LD up
Con down
Green down
Populus @PopulusPolls · 1h1 hour ago
Populus Voting Intention and this week's most noticed news and political news pic.twitter.com/Ilqyqci7tp
BREAKING: Two US citizens shot at in Saudi, one wounded #SaudiArabia
http://ow.ly/IdeY0
Clegg would, IIRC, have to have the support of the LD parliamentary party and federal executive. What would they get out of supporting a CON/UKIP/DUP minority government? I doubt this would even be on the cards without some significant concession.
As for the SNP, there's already a bit of confusion over potential coalition negotiations - Would any agreement be subect to a vote of their westminster MP's, MP's & MSP's or all party members?
Assuming that it becomes clear he won't win then I wonder where votes might finish up. I've rather assumed that the LDs will have a night of horrors, and that the Greens and UKIP will do well-ish, but not really surprise anyone. However IF there is a dead-in-the-water Labour camp then it really could get very wacky for the minor parties.
This may become simply an election about where Labour's vote finishes up. My money's with UKIP.
What possible context can there be for listing UKIP as a "racist group" alongside neo-Nazis that makes it acceptable to teach in school?
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Germany wants, on the other hand, the advantages of the single currency and an unchanging exchange rate with its “customer” countries. The bad loans their banks made to Greece have not had to be realised and the losses have been socialised, the Greeks however remain insolvent.
We did have a grand coalition of sorts during the Great Depression, but I would expect that Labour and Conservatives would find it easier to agree on a second election than on forming a government.
Perhaps if an autumn election failed to clarify the situation we might have a grand coalition. Maybe.
It would pretty much kill the Labour party, though, wouldn't it? Almost their entire electoral pitch is to vote Labour to stop the Tories. Forming a coalition with the enemy would make Clegg's decision to enter coalition with Cameron look like an act of supreme self-kindness in comparison.
That slide is an absolute disgrace and the teacher that is pushing his own political views on students should be suspended.
Do you have a source showing it was written by a teacher and not a student or even in a school at all?
σ' = d/dN 4γN^1.5
σ' = 3γN^0.5/2 indicates that providing the sign of γ and σ are the same it is a maxima.
And you need to remember that the Spanish economy in 2015 does not look anything like the economy in 1999 (or even 2007).
If you'd said - 20 years ago - that Spain would be the second largest car maker in Europe, you'd have been laughed at. But it is now. And on a per capita basis, it will probably pass Germany by the end of next year, once the new Nissan plant is up and running, and the Ford extension is finished. (Today, Spain is only behind Korea, Japan and Germany today on a per capita basis).
No, I don't, but I was responding to Pong who had accepted it was done by a teacher in a school. I agree that the alleged facts need to be confirmed, but if it has been done by a teacher in a UK school than disciplinary action is needed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31056608
If it was done by a teacher, in a lesson, then that person should have no place teaching in a state school in the UK.
However, given all we have is a single image of a screen - with no indication of where it was taken, who produced the slide, or its context, then we should probably not rush to judgement.
Anyone want to strip the EXIF data out of the tweeted pic?
Hush, rcs1000 -- who needs reason and analysis when Socrates is busy working up their typical head of steam?!
Poorer parts of Europe benefit from the EU, few benefit from the Euro.
Confidence is a massive part of the battle. Cameron, like everybody else, will have moments of self doubt. He knows if he fails to win twice history will be unkind and from his background he won't take that lightly.
Ed, on the other hand, comes from a very low expectation base, younger brother, underdog etc.
It will come down to nerve more than anything else
Doesn't Twitter remove that info from pics that are uploaded?
However, given all we have is a single image of a screen - with no indication of where it was taken, who produced the slide, or its context, then we should probably not rush to judgement.
Anyone want to strip the EXIF data out of the tweeted pic?No location data; taken this morning (unless it's the upload date)
the facts seem pretty clear:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-31055349
Sorry, you'll have to hop off this outrage bus. Don't worry another will be along in a minute
Even quicker than I expected going from slacks link
Part of the problem the London Establishment has in understanding the SNP is they think of them as some small, amateur outfit. In reality they are the most sophisticated political machine in the UK and a campaigning monster.
Interestingly, we are now about to see a consumer boom in Germany - due to inappropriately loose monetary policy there.
More patients left on hospital trolleys in January alone than in previous two years combined http://tgr.ph/1BDLgsW
Did I accept it was done by a teacher?
I don't know, and neither do you.
I posed the question, who would want to be a teacher in a UK school when anything you say can be tweeted and subjected to the daily mail treatment?
It only makes no difference if the SNP rise is solely at the expense of Labour, which it's not. Also the narrative of falling Labour helps the blues.
Margin of error stuff at the most.
For the same reason I think the final vote shares are important, even though it's seats that matter. If you had a government made up of the 2nd & 4th parties nationwide, with the SNP abstaining, that would play extraordinarily badly in England.
I don't know, and neither do you.
I posed the question, who would want to be a teacher in a UK school when anything you say can be tweeted and subjected to the daily mail treatment?
the link says it was a teacher.
Best to keep politics out of the classroom really.
He does the sofa on The Week in Politics because of the easy money and the opportunity to peddle labour propaganda. Portillo is not an MP nor running for office and is a better objective observer.
Johnson is a smooth talker but he has always run away for tough decisions. The FT at the time recorded his abject surrender over public sector pensions.
''The case for raising the public sector retirement age from 60 to 65 was "irrefutable", Alan Johnson said only last weekend. Yesterday, the trade and industry secretary described as a "sensible step" an agreement to allow public service workers to go on retiring with full pensions at 60. He gave no explanation for this volte-face, which will mean a staggering increase in the cost of public sector pensions, at a time when final-salary pensions are disappearing in the private sector''
The FT later on did point out why...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/197de6c4-403d-11da-8394-00000e2511c8.html#axzz3QJwFZwI5
''...the government has caved in to the threat of a strike, despite its secure parliamentary majority. It has made this concession ahead of publication of the Pensions Commission report, closing off one large section of the pensions system to change. Meanwhile, it has put further pressure on the remaining private sector schemes by loading the cost of the Pension Protection Fund.''
In short I think Johnson is a total disgrace, but oh so typical of how Blair's government ran away from its avowed agenda.
As for narratives... I reckon their influence is so over estimated you can make money by swimming against the tide every time a story comes out
Populus Online Poll LAB 35% CON 34% LDEM 10% UKIP 14%
I don't know, and neither do you.
I posed the question, who would want to be a teacher in a UK school when anything you say can be tweeted and subjected to the daily mail treatment?The teacher concerned has now apologised.
I could see how doing something provocative like that might be useful to provoke discussion, though the quality of the English on the slide is shockingly poor, so I'm disappointed that it appears to have been produced by a teacher.
Also worth noting that the British Prime Minister himself described UKIP as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" in 2006 (when leader of the Opposition), and has failed to apologise for doing so. Is it really so outrageous for a teacher to produce material that is consistent with that public categorisation?
Surely the double exclamation marks are the giveaway.
If UKIPs MEPs and officials did not spout their rubbish then they would not get associated with the BNP.
But they tingtong jolly well do and the 'its all a joke' and 'rough diamond' excuses have worn a bit thin.
Rand Paul stands out still as the best nominee the GOP can go for.
But they tingtong jolly well do and the 'its all a joke' and 'rough diamond' excuses have worn a bit thin.
It's just a bit of banter.
Inverness: SNP
Gordon: SNP
NE Fife: probably SNP
Orkney: Hold
Edinburgh West: probably Labour
Ross, Skye: probable hold, possible SNP
Berwickshire: probably tory or SNP
Argyll: SNP
Kincardine: tory or SNP
East Dumbartonshire: Labour
Caithness: probable hold, possible SNP.
So it is not true to say that SNP gains are so heavily at the expense of Labour as to make others unimportant.
The implications of this are that a number of seats move from a party that has been in coalition with the tories for the last 5 years to a party that says it will not work with the tories at all. This seems to me to make a second tory minority government either on its own or in Coalition just that little bit less likely.
But they tingtong jolly well do and the 'its all a joke' and 'rough diamond' excuses have worn a bit thin.
They get associated with it because they're a threat to the Tory and Labour parties, whose supporters control the national press.
It is the big two parties that support heavy controls from black nations while allowing open immigration from most white ones.
Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday.
“We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.”
The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
If she had said she will work with the party that bids most to Scotland for Scottish votes in Westminster - "and if that is the Tories crawling to us on their belly, so be it..." I think she would have kept far more flexibility in the negotiations.
OK, I don't really. I think he thinks that the IMF and Germany will blink.
Any while it's possible they'll come up with more sweeties than previously, I just don't think they will.
The chance of Grexit is rising.