Before we get to the Labour losses in Scotland it is necessary to consider the implications of the collapse of the Scottish Liberal democrats:
Inverness: SNP Gordon: SNP NE Fife: probably SNP Orkney: Hold Edinburgh West: probably Labour Ross, Skye: probable hold, possible SNP Berwickshire: probably tory or SNP Argyll: SNP Kincardine: tory or SNP East Dumbartonshire: Labour Caithness: probable hold, possible SNP.
So it is not true to say that SNP gains are so heavily at the expense of Labour as to make others unimportant.
The implications of this are that a number of seats move from a party that has been in coalition with the tories for the last 5 years to a party that says it will not work with the tories at all. This seems to me to make a second tory minority government either on its own or in Coalition just that little bit less likely.
I personally think it was a mis-step by Nicola Sturgeon to say she would never work with the Tories.
If she had said she will work with the party that bids most to Scotland for Scottish votes in Westminster - "and if that is the Tories crawling to us on their belly, so be it..." I think she would have kept far more flexibility in the negotiations.
No - Anyone who doesn't vote Conservative in Scotland isn't a Conservative (Except maybe some liberals in the far north, but they're a special case tbh)
The Conservatives are toxic to most of the population there (Especially central belt), like certain parts of the North of England on steroids. Any hint, any hint whatsoever that they'll work with the Conservatives will be on SLAB's posters. Ruling out any sort of arrangement with the Conservatives is very important for them to maintain their big chunk of ex-SLAB and ex-Lib Dem votes.
If you assume consumption per head = output minus costs, and that maximal consumption is 'optimal' then you'll get C=(sig n^0.5 - gamma n^2). So c' = sig n^-0.5 -2 gamma n, and if there is a local maxima (or minima) then that'll be =0. So n satisfies sig=4 gamma n^1.5 as you state.
depending on the values of sigma and gamma this value might be a minima - so the worst possible size.
It's more 'trivial' than 'impossible', but is far more firmly in the 'load of old nonsense' camp.
2nd derivatives
σ' = d/dN 4γN^1.5
σ' = 3γN^0.5/2 indicates that providing the sign of γ and σ are the same it is a maxima.
That's not right though - you need to differentiate C' again. (Missed a 0.5 earlier by the way), but c''=-1/4*s*n^-3/2 - 2g. For a maxima we need this to be negative, so as we know n is positive then if both s and g are positive we certainly have a maxima - and it's reasonable to suppose that they are.
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
I went to speak to 100 students at the university today - apparently they invited AS too but her office said "It is not usually Anna Soubry's policy to share a platform with Nick Palmer". Is this a general pattern with sitting Tory MPs in line with Cameron's evasion tactics, or are some engaging in debates? (Genuine question, I don't actually know.)
Probably just the Cameroons who are afraid of debate.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
Do some background reading on Varoufakis. He has a plan.
To teach in school that UKIP is racist and the same as Neo Nazis is a disgrace and must be condemned.
Who would want to be a teacher these days, when a single, hastily prepared slide (probably in response to a racist bullying incident or something) can be stripped of context and posted on twitter?
That looks more like a student's presentation to me.
Surely the double exclamation marks are the giveaway.
If UKIPs MEPs and officials did not spout their rubbish then they would not get associated with the BNP. But they tingtong jolly well do and the 'its all a joke' and 'rough diamond' excuses have worn a bit thin.
They get associated with it because they're a threat to the Tory and Labour parties, whose supporters control the national press.
It is the big two parties that support heavy controls from black nations while allowing open immigration from most white ones.
To argue that UKIP's unfounded Xenophobia is not Racism is to pretend that squares are not rectangles.
The key for Cameron will be holding his nerve. He couldn't beat Brown outright, if the same happens with Ed he will face complete humiliation. He knows that and fear can be paralysing
I went to speak to 100 students at the university today - apparently they invited AS too but her office said "It is not usually Anna Soubry's policy to share a platform with Nick Palmer". Is this a general pattern with sitting Tory MPs in line with Cameron's evasion tactics, or are some engaging in debates? (Genuine question, I don't actually know.)
I think it's just you, Nick
Could it be that Anna Sourby finds it pointless to talk to 100 students? If it's Nottingham uni Nick is referring to, then most of them will not even live in her constituency.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
Do some background reading on Varoufakis. He has a plan.
He does have a plan.
But the plan seems to involve the IMF consenting to a massive haircut. Which they have never done, and will not do now.
The leadership of SYRIZA believes that ultimately, the other Eurozone countries will pay the price, and write-off a chunk of Greece's debt. I do not believe that is saleable in Germany or France or Italy, and I do not believe the IMF will consent to that.
Therefore, with every raising of the ante, Grexit (and a disorganised, bad tempered, unplanned one) becomes more and more likely. I have no doubt that, behind the scenes, the Russians are encouraging the Greeks to up the ante.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
I reckon that Tsipras shorted the Greek banks, and will cash in his winnings on Monday and retire to the Bahamas...
OK, I don't really. I think he thinks that the IMF and Germany will blink.
Any while it's possible they'll come up with more sweeties than previously, I just don't think they will.
The chance of Grexit is rising.
Problem is he's playing the highest possible game of high-stakes poker, with nothing in his hand, and everyone knows it.
Before we get to the Labour losses in Scotland it is necessary to consider the implications of the collapse of the Scottish Liberal democrats:
Inverness: SNP Gordon: SNP NE Fife: probably SNP Orkney: Hold Edinburgh West: probably Labour Ross, Skye: probable hold, possible SNP Berwickshire: probably tory or SNP Argyll: SNP Kincardine: tory or SNP East Dumbartonshire: Labour Caithness: probable hold, possible SNP.
So it is not true to say that SNP gains are so heavily at the expense of Labour as to make others unimportant.
The implications of this are that a number of seats move from a party that has been in coalition with the tories for the last 5 years to a party that says it will not work with the tories at all. This seems to me to make a second tory minority government either on its own or in Coalition just that little bit less likely.
I've got Edinburgh West chalked up as an SNP gain, largely agree with the others.
The SNP came a pretty poor 4th in Edinburgh West in 2010 with Labour quite well placed. We are off the map in Scotland so who knows but this would be a pretty remarkable win in a town that voted no fairly emphatically.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
Do some background reading on Varoufakis. He has a plan.
He does have a plan.
But the plan seems to involve the IMF consenting to a massive haircut. Which they have never done, and will not do now.
The leadership of SYRIZA believes that ultimately, the other Eurozone countries will pay the price, and write-off a chunk of Greece's debt. I do not believe that is saleable in Germany or France or Italy, and I do not believe the IMF will consent to that.
Therefore, with every raising of the ante, Grexit (and a disorganised, bad tempered, unplanned one) becomes more and more likely. I have no doubt that, behind the scenes, the Russians are encouraging the Greeks to up the ante.
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
To argue that UKIP's unfounded Xenophobia is not Racism is to pretend that squares are not rectangles.
By definition, a square is a rectangle, whereas a foreigner is not defined by race.
Anyway, it's nonsense that UKIP are xenophobic. Nigel Farage is married to a foreigner for goodness sake. UKIP critics just like to engage in smearing UKIP with these terms because they can't engage in actual policy argument: the common agricultural policy is a disaster, free movement of labour is a disaster, the single currency is a disaster. Europhiles thus have to resort to smears.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
Do some background reading on Varoufakis. He has a plan.
He does have a plan.
But the plan seems to involve the IMF consenting to a massive haircut. Which they have never done, and will not do now.
The leadership of SYRIZA believes that ultimately, the other Eurozone countries will pay the price, and write-off a chunk of Greece's debt. I do not believe that is saleable in Germany or France or Italy, and I do not believe the IMF will consent to that.
Therefore, with every raising of the ante, Grexit (and a disorganised, bad tempered, unplanned one) becomes more and more likely. I have no doubt that, behind the scenes, the Russians are encouraging the Greeks to up the ante.
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
He tries that and Greece will be kicked out of the euro faster than you can say 'Ouzo'.
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
Your faith is touching.
How does "dual currency" solve the problem? Are Greek's banks assets to be denominated in Drachma or Euros?
Before we get to the Labour losses in Scotland it is necessary to consider the implications of the collapse of the Scottish Liberal democrats:
Inverness: SNP Gordon: SNP NE Fife: probably SNP Orkney: Hold Edinburgh West: probably Labour Ross, Skye: probable hold, possible SNP Berwickshire: probably tory or SNP Argyll: SNP Kincardine: tory or SNP East Dumbartonshire: Labour Caithness: probable hold, possible SNP.
So it is not true to say that SNP gains are so heavily at the expense of Labour as to make others unimportant.
The implications of this are that a number of seats move from a party that has been in coalition with the tories for the last 5 years to a party that says it will not work with the tories at all. This seems to me to make a second tory minority government either on its own or in Coalition just that little bit less likely.
I've got Edinburgh West chalked up as an SNP gain, largely agree with the others.
The SNP came a pretty poor 4th in Edinburgh West in 2010 with Labour quite well placed. We are off the map in Scotland so who knows but this would be a pretty remarkable win in a town that voted no fairly emphatically.
34% of Edinburgh West votes Yes. 34% in a 4 way is almost certain victory.
To argue that UKIP's unfounded Xenophobia is not Racism is to pretend that squares are not rectangles.
By definition, a square is a rectangle, whereas a foreigner is not defined by race.
Anyway, it's nonsense that UKIP are xenophobic. Nigel Farage is married to a foreigner for goodness sake. UKIP critics just like to engage in smearing UKIP with these terms because they can't engage in actual policy argument: the common agricultural policy is a disaster, free movement of labour is a disaster, the single currency is a disaster. Europhiles thus have to resort to smears.
Of course, if he's scared of his wife, then that would be evidence of xenophobia...
I haven't followed the politics of this closely enough to bet on it, but given the potentially endless political wrangling that could go on after the election, 2016 @ 4/1 looks like a reasonable punt, right?
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
Your faith is touching.
How does "dual currency" solve the problem? Are Greek's banks assets to be denominated in Drachma or Euros?
Greek banks assets would remain in Euros, effectively turning all Greek banks into Distressed Asset holding companies for whom the Eurozone would have repsonsibility. Meanwhile a new currency is used for day to day operation of government and the economy with huge scope for money supply expansion given it will start, day one with M0 = 0.
I haven't followed the politics of this closely enough to bet on it, but given the potentially endless political wrangling that could go on after the election, 2016 @ 4/1 looks like a reasonable punt, right?
I assume any plan (note plan as opposed to unplanned chain of chaotic/ forced outcomes) to leave the Euro must: 1. Be done in absolute secrecy 2. In advance and left on a shelf ready to roll 3. Implemented lightning fast on a Friday night the moment the markets close 4. Accompanied by broader and immediate regs such as capital controls
Whether any garlic zone country will ever do this is debatable but they surely all have thought about it and have their plans locked in a safe ready for someone to push the nuclear button.
I'm just wondering if Syriza is indeed deadly serious and of the view that they cannot pay their debts and must be forgiven - and if they are not to be forgiven then pushing the nuclear button, defaulting, returning to the Drachma and getting on with life is about to happen. Interesting times.
Is it possible that Greece will do a Scotland and just keep using the euro without being a part of the ECB? I hesitate to suggest that Syriza are as economically incompetent as the SNP but it must be a possibility. Surely someone else has to be that stupid.
As long as Greece does not have to borrow on the international markets they could in theory simply continue to circulate the euros they have but refuse to pay or play with the EU. My understanding is that they have a primary surplus at the moment but whether that would remain the case after a default like that is anyone's guess, probably not.
It is possible that they could have an economy like Panama and simply not have their own currency. Unlike Scotland they do not have a major financial services industry to protect although Cyprus might have a heart attack.
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
Your faith is touching.
How does "dual currency" solve the problem? Are Greek's banks assets to be denominated in Drachma or Euros?
Greek banks assets would remain in Euros, effectively turning all Greek banks into Distressed Asset holding companies for whom the Eurozone would have repsonsibility. Meanwhile a new currency is used for day to day operation of government and the economy with huge scope for money supply expansion given it will start, day one with M0 = 0.
Pretty sure that is a default, and greece effectively leaving the euro.
I assume any plan (note plan as opposed to unplanned chain of chaotic/ forced outcomes) to leave the Euro must: 1. Be done in absolute secrecy 2. In advance and left on a shelf ready to roll 3. Implemented lightning fast on a Friday night the moment the markets close 4. Accompanied by broader and immediate regs such as capital controls
Whether any garlic zone country will ever do this is debatable but they surely all have thought about it and have their plans locked in a safe ready for someone to push the nuclear button.
I'm just wondering if Syriza is indeed deadly serious and of the view that they cannot pay their debts and must be forgiven - and if they are not to be forgiven then pushing the nuclear button, defaulting, returning to the Drachma and getting on with life is about to happen. Interesting times.
Pity the average Greek who's voted Syriza, and is about to find out that the promises and expectation of bread and jam, are about to be revealed as stale pitta and rancid margarine.
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
Your faith is touching.
How does "dual currency" solve the problem? Are Greek's banks assets to be denominated in Drachma or Euros?
Greek banks assets would remain in Euros, effectively turning all Greek banks into Distressed Asset holding companies for whom the Eurozone would have repsonsibility. Meanwhile a new currency is used for day to day operation of government and the economy with huge scope for money supply expansion given it will start, day one with M0 = 0.
Pretty sure that is a default, and greece effectively leaving the euro.
Technical default but one which passes most of the pain onto the Eurozone it just left. Makes a haircut look attractive. All the back up plan(s) needs to be is feasible.
Mr. Patrick, the problem with that is that the vast majority of Greeks (three-quarters I think) want to remain in the eurozone at practically any cost.
Of course, they also want to have much easier debt repayment and a lot of debt written off.
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
Your faith is touching.
How does "dual currency" solve the problem? Are Greek's banks assets to be denominated in Drachma or Euros?
Greek banks assets would remain in Euros, effectively turning all Greek banks into Distressed Asset holding companies for whom the Eurozone would have repsonsibility. Meanwhile a new currency is used for day to day operation of government and the economy with huge scope for money supply expansion given it will start, day one with M0 = 0.
I'm sorry but that simply doesn't work.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
Meanwhile the Greek government would be attempting to pay people in Drachma, which they would have very little value outside Greece,
But here's the crux: all the solutions to the Greek problem involve the consent of the IMF, the ECB and the EU. Tsipras seems to believe that they will all, eventually, say "Greece leaving the Euro and defaulting on it's debts is so terrible, that forgiveness is a better option. Here's your haircut Greece, and please, feel free to forget privatisations, labour market reform, or the need to balance your budget. And you know what, Greece doesn't need all those tourists, anyway."
Do you think that Mrs Merkel would get re-elected if that happened? Do you think the IMF (which is desperately frightened by the coming wave of Latin American defaults) will want to look like a soft touch right now?
To expand on what I said, I think it would be better if I had said "He has planS". Because everything I've read about him suggests he has played out multiple scenarios and has modelled outcomes.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
Your faith is touching.
How does "dual currency" solve the problem? Are Greek's banks assets to be denominated in Drachma or Euros?
Greek banks assets would remain in Euros, effectively turning all Greek banks into Distressed Asset holding companies for whom the Eurozone would have repsonsibility. Meanwhile a new currency is used for day to day operation of government and the economy with huge scope for money supply expansion given it will start, day one with M0 = 0.
I'm sorry but that simply doesn't work.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
Meanwhile the Greek government would be attempting to pay people in Drachma, which they would have very little value outside Greece,
But here's the crux: all the solutions to the Greek problem involve the consent of the IMF, the ECB and the EU. Tsipras seems to believe that they will all, eventually, say "Greece leaving the Euro and defaulting on it's debts is so terrible, that forgiveness is a better option. Here's your haircut Greece, and please, feel free to forget privatisations, labour market reform, or the need to balance your budget. And you know what, Greece doesn't need all those tourists, anyway."
Do you think that Mrs Merkel would get re-elected if that happened? Do you think the IMF (which is desperately frightened by the coming wave of Latin American defaults) will want to look like a soft touch right now?
not to mention Italy, Spain et al would think hmm i'll have some of that too.
Mr. Patrick, the problem with that is that the vast majority of Greeks (three-quarters I think) want to remain in the eurozone at practically any cost.
Of course, they also want to have much easier debt repayment and a lot of debt written off.
You mean they want the benefits of the currency union, but not the costs.
'I went to speak to 100 students at the university today'
She's got better things to do than talk to students that aren't in her constituency?
A lot of them turned out to be. But it's a policy anyway - when she was Health Minister, she declined a debate on health with me in the constituency at a date of her choice. The argument is clear - don't give your opponent airtime, etc. I just wondered if this was a general policy in Tory marginals.
I assume any plan (note plan as opposed to unplanned chain of chaotic/ forced outcomes) to leave the Euro must: 1. Be done in absolute secrecy 2. In advance and left on a shelf ready to roll 3. Implemented lightning fast on a Friday night the moment the markets close 4. Accompanied by broader and immediate regs such as capital controls
Whether any garlic zone country will ever do this is debatable but they surely all have thought about it and have their plans locked in a safe ready for someone to push the nuclear button.
I'm just wondering if Syriza is indeed deadly serious and of the view that they cannot pay their debts and must be forgiven - and if they are not to be forgiven then pushing the nuclear button, defaulting, returning to the Drachma and getting on with life is about to happen. Interesting times.
If you were going to do that, then your public statements would be:
"We are working with the troika, to consider the best of all possible options. It will clearly be a difficult negotiation, but we are determined to get the best deal for the Greeks."
And while you were saying all that, you would be secretly working on the things you've suggested. (Which would, incidentally, give you much more bargaining power with the EU and the IMF.)
What SYRIZA seems to be aiming for is to be effectively kicked out the Euro by driving the domestic banking industry out of business. If the ECB cannot support the Greek banking sector, then it could only be done by a forced conversion to Drachma and massive use of the printing press.
@Dair Would you say you're a typical or more left wing than usual SNP voter ?
I'm a technocratic libertarian. So I would imagine my belief in free markets puts me far more to the right. The Greek problem has been exacerbated by market manipulation which has failed. I would back them doing anything to reverse the externally imposed failures.
Is it possible that Greece will do a Scotland and just keep using the euro without being a part of the ECB? I hesitate to suggest that Syriza are as economically incompetent as the SNP but it must be a possibility. Surely someone else has to be that stupid.
As long as Greece does not have to borrow on the international markets they could in theory simply continue to circulate the euros they have but refuse to pay or play with the EU. My understanding is that they have a primary surplus at the moment but whether that would remain the case after a default like that is anyone's guess, probably not.
It is possible that they could have an economy like Panama and simply not have their own currency. Unlike Scotland they do not have a major financial services industry to protect although Cyprus might have a heart attack.
The problem is that the local banks would hemorrhage assets, and the cost of borrowing for local firms would be enormous.
I assume any plan (note plan as opposed to unplanned chain of chaotic/ forced outcomes) to leave the Euro must: 1. Be done in absolute secrecy 2. In advance and left on a shelf ready to roll 3. Implemented lightning fast on a Friday night the moment the markets close 4. Accompanied by broader and immediate regs such as capital controls
Whether any garlic zone country will ever do this is debatable but they surely all have thought about it and have their plans locked in a safe ready for someone to push the nuclear button.
I'm just wondering if Syriza is indeed deadly serious and of the view that they cannot pay their debts and must be forgiven - and if they are not to be forgiven then pushing the nuclear button, defaulting, returning to the Drachma and getting on with life is about to happen. Interesting times.
Pity the average Greek who's voted Syriza, and is about to find out that the promises and expectation of bread and jam, are about to be revealed as stale pitta and rancid margarine.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
Is it possible that Greece will do a Scotland and just keep using the euro without being a part of the ECB? I hesitate to suggest that Syriza are as economically incompetent as the SNP but it must be a possibility. Surely someone else has to be that stupid.
As long as Greece does not have to borrow on the international markets they could in theory simply continue to circulate the euros they have but refuse to pay or play with the EU. My understanding is that they have a primary surplus at the moment but whether that would remain the case after a default like that is anyone's guess, probably not.
It is possible that they could have an economy like Panama and simply not have their own currency. Unlike Scotland they do not have a major financial services industry to protect although Cyprus might have a heart attack.
The problem is that the local banks would hemorrhage assets, and the cost of borrowing for local firms would be enormous.
The problem as I see it is that Greek Banks still hold quite a lot of Greek debt. Saying you are defaulting to everyone else but will honour domestic creditors would be theoretically possible but the likelihood is that everyone would be worried about Greek banks with no lender of last resort and the not so smart money would follow the smart money out of the country.
So it is not a pain free option but it is a possible way forward. A new drachma looks doomed to failure. It is hard to imagine less propitious circumstances for a new currency than this.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
All Euros are not the same however. Euros held in a local, Greek bank are now potentially in the firing line for instant conversion to a new Drachma. Moving your euros from a Greek bank to a German bank means that can't happen to them. Bloomberg have a nice chart of the currency now flowing out of the country. What a mess.
Mr. Patrick, the problem with that is that the vast majority of Greeks (three-quarters I think) want to remain in the eurozone at practically any cost.
Of course, they also want to have much easier debt repayment and a lot of debt written off.
You mean they want the benefits of the currency union, but not the costs.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The state will provide turnips as long as the comrades keep building tractors.
A new socialist utopia on the Med seems within touching distance...
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The state will provide turnips as long as the comrades keep building tractors.
A new socialist utopia on the Med seems within touching distance...
It would just be awful if Greece ended up giving left wing economics a bad name. Awful.
Playing chicken with the Eurozone and the IMF is one thing. Doing so at the same time as cancelling asset sales, re-hiring bureaucrats, and raising pension and wages costs is like playing chicken against a solid granite cliff, having disconnected your brake.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Perhaps pensioners are
" of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy)."
@ReutersPolitics: BREAKING: Republican Romney says he will not run for U.S. presidency in 2016: Romney statement
Was he ever serious?!
Rand Paul stands out still as the best nominee the GOP can go for.
I don't think Rand Paul can get through the primaries. The establishment will block him, and he's not popular enough among the base to overcome that. Maybe in 2020.
Absolutely agree, Socrates. I am not sure I know of anyone this side of the pond who views his candidacy as anything other than a means of keeping policy pressure on the party re small government and libertarian ideals.
I would bet on one of the MidWest governors. Not sure which one yet. Or Rubio (although I can't quite get myself to believe this). If it were not for his brother, I think Jeb would be the obvious choice, but again, I just don't feel it in my gut.
That was a very compelling article. I knew about Charles' shenanigans with architecture but no idea that he was pushing quakery to the extent that medical doctors were losing their research teams. Very alarming.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The demand is Keynsian from a new currency which may or may not be stable. Given it would start with M0 = 0 it would be stable for a reasonable period of time no matter how the government spent.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
You assume a Grecian only buys products produced in Greece.
What if a pensioner needs a spare part for his Stihl chainsaw to cut wood to burn as fuel.
Suddenly that brake drum costs 3 weeks pension as the drachma implodes.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Perhaps pensioners are
" of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy)."
Which is true I guess.
Extreme leftie economics is a harsh old game.
You should understand.
A Dual Currency solution is not left wing. Creating a market in currency to use within a country is a Capitalist, market based solution.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The demand is Keynsian from a new currency which may or may not be stable. Given it would start with M0 = 0 it would be stable for a reasonable period of time no matter how the government spent.
No, it really wouldn't. A currency is worth what people are prepared to pay or exchange for it. Who would want new Drachmas?
That is why any move is going to involve most of the domestic transactions within Greece still be operated in Euros, whether they leave the Eurozone or not.
@ReutersPolitics: BREAKING: Republican Romney says he will not run for U.S. presidency in 2016: Romney statement
Was he ever serious?!
Rand Paul stands out still as the best nominee the GOP can go for.
I don't think Rand Paul can get through the primaries. The establishment will block him, and he's not popular enough among the base to overcome that. Maybe in 2020.
Absolutely agree, Socrates. I am not sure I know of anyone this side of the pond who views his candidacy as anything other than a means of keeping policy pressure on the party re small government and libertarian ideals.
I would bet on one of the MidWest governors. Not sure which one yet. Or Rubio (although I can't quite get myself to believe this). If it were not for his brother, I think Jeb would be the obvious choice, but again, I just don't feel it in my gut.
Ryan would have walked it had he thrown his hat in the ring, but he knows how precarious your career can get if you risk it on a presidential run, and his reputation took a bashing with the extra scrutiny he got just through being a VP candidate.
I just don't buy that Bush can make it through. His last name could be overcome if he was willing to distance himself with his brother, but he has too much of a sense of WASPish family loyalty to do that. Plus, the two issues he's most associated with are immigration reform, which the Right already hates, and Common Core, which is shaping up to be their next Obamacare in terms of anger-inducing subjects.
Rubio is a bit more plausible, but he got himself into a pickle on immigration reform too. He pushed it too hard for the base, and now he's trying to make up for it by adopting highly right wing positions that will put off the moderates. I think you're right on a Midwestern governor. Walker seems like the obvious one. He's a bit bland, but that won't invalidate him and the GOP will likely give it to the last serious candidate standing, like last time.
(Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said Greece won’t seek an extension of its bailout agreement, setting the government on course to enter March without a financial backstop for the first time in five years. Greece won’t engage with officials from the troika of official creditors who have been policing the conditions of its rescue since 2010. It’s five-day-old government wants a new deal with the European Union that allows for more spending, Varoufakis said at a joint press conference with Eurogroup Chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem in Athens, Friday. “We don’t plan to cooperate with that committee,” Varoufakis said. “The Greek state has a future, but what we won’t accept has a future is the self-perpetuating crisis of deflation and unsustainable debt.” The standoff could see Greek banks effectively excluded from European Central Bank liquidity operations and the government with no source of funding, having rejected EU aid while still shut out of international markets.
Greece may leave the Euro this weekend...
Either they have a plan or Syzria are making Kim Jong Un look like a responsible sane world leader.
I reckon that Tsipras shorted the Greek banks, and will cash in his winnings on Monday and retire to the Bahamas...
OK, I don't really. I think he thinks that the IMF and Germany will blink.
Any while it's possible they'll come up with more sweeties than previously, I just don't think they will.
The chance of Grexit is rising.
Problem is he's playing the highest possible game of high-stakes poker, with nothing in his hand, and everyone knows it.
Only negotiating trick available in those circumstances is to create issues where you hold the trumps. Hence Russia ... The problem is that that ups the ante considerably from the already high stakes, questioning Greece's role not just in the Euro, but in the EU and NATO too.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
You assume a Grecian only buys products produced in Greece.
What if a pensioner needs a spare part for his Stihl chainsaw to cut wood to burn as fuel.
Suddenly that brake drum costs 3 weeks pension as the drachma implodes.
Then that would be dependant on how well or badly the government implements the parallel currency, how well it manages the money supply expansion and how well it manages Greek export performance.
Not easy but feasible and some things (such as the export performance) are more likely under this proposal.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Why?
Because helping them, through some process of debt reduction, is the least worst of the options. Its not pretty, but its not exactly unheard of. Indeed, Germany was one of the key beneficiaries in the mid 20th century. See wikipedia on London Agreement on German External Debts. Ironic isn't it?
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Perhaps pensioners are
" of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy)."
Which is true I guess.
Extreme leftie economics is a harsh old game.
You should understand.
A Dual Currency solution is not left wing. Creating a market in currency to use within a country is a Capitalist, market based solution.
I've never got into currency trading, but I feel shorting the drachma would be a great 1 way bet. No idea how to do it mind.
I'm sure some hedge fund or other will try and do it by proxy or whatnot though.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
You assume a Grecian only buys products produced in Greece.
What if a pensioner needs a spare part for his Stihl chainsaw to cut wood to burn as fuel.
Suddenly that brake drum costs 3 weeks pension as the drachma implodes.
Then that would be dependant on how well or badly the government implements the parallel currency, how well it manages the money supply expansion and how well it manages Greek export performance.
Not easy but feasible and some things (such as the export performance) are more likely under this proposal.
That would take years - meanwhile all entitlement payments from the government to its citizens would be a fraction of their previous value.
Not sure the government could last long under those circumstances.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Why?
Because helping them, through some process of debt reduction, is the least worst of the options. Its not pretty, but its not exactly unheard of. Indeed, Germany was one of the key beneficiaries in the mid 20th century. See wikipedia on London Agreement on German External Debts. Ironic isn't it?
Should have been done last year. Too late now, can't be seen to give in now. Besides Syriza will wreck the economy in no time anyway.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The demand is Keynsian from a new currency which may or may not be stable. Given it would start with M0 = 0 it would be stable for a reasonable period of time no matter how the government spent.
No, it really wouldn't. A currency is worth what people are prepared to pay or exchange for it. Who would want new Drachmas?
That is why any move is going to involve most of the domestic transactions within Greece still be operated in Euros, whether they leave the Eurozone or not.
Which is why it is a Dual Currency system and not a replacement currency. The Greek government would perform its business in New Currency, the economy can make its own choice. The Greek government would have no responsiblity for the Euro economy, propping up failed banks would be the choice of the Eurozone.
Demand would be created through requirement for Dracha for electricity, government services, exports, etc.. It would be up to the government to decide how well or badly it manages this.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Why?
Because helping them, through some process of debt reduction, is the least worst of the options. Its not pretty, but its not exactly unheard of. Indeed, Germany was one of the key beneficiaries in the mid 20th century. See wikipedia on London Agreement on German External Debts. Ironic isn't it?
Should have been done last year. Too late now, can't be seen to give in now. Besides Syriza will wreck the economy in no time anyway.
The deal could come with a strong list of reforms that have to be implemented.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The demand is Keynsian from a new currency which may or may not be stable. Given it would start with M0 = 0 it would be stable for a reasonable period of time no matter how the government spent.
No, it really wouldn't. A currency is worth what people are prepared to pay or exchange for it. Who would want new Drachmas?
That is why any move is going to involve most of the domestic transactions within Greece still be operated in Euros, whether they leave the Eurozone or not.
Which is why it is a Dual Currency system and not a replacement currency. The Greek government would perform its business in New Currency, the economy can make its own choice. The Greek government would have no responsiblity for the Euro economy, propping up failed banks would be the choice of the Eurozone.
Demand would be created through requirement for Dracha for electricity, government services, exports, etc.. It would be up to the government to decide how well or badly it manages this.
You think there is any circumstances where Greeks wouldn't be significantly (and I mean orders of magnitude) worse off ?
How many drachma for a barrel of oil ? For Argentinian beef, for German car parts, for airline fuel, for Dutch lager etc ?
Did you have any input with the SNP's currency plans ?
I'm not in the SNP. And I'm not advocating the use of Dual Currency. All I'm doing is explaining that much like Citizen's Income, dismissing an economic policy because you don't understand and find it alien is ridiculous.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
You assume a Grecian only buys products produced in Greece.
What if a pensioner needs a spare part for his Stihl chainsaw to cut wood to burn as fuel.
Suddenly that brake drum costs 3 weeks pension as the drachma implodes.
How unpatriotic. What's wrong with a Greek made chainsaw?
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The demand is Keynsian from a new currency which may or may not be stable. Given it would start with M0 = 0 it would be stable for a reasonable period of time no matter how the government spent.
No, it really wouldn't. A currency is worth what people are prepared to pay or exchange for it. Who would want new Drachmas?
That is why any move is going to involve most of the domestic transactions within Greece still be operated in Euros, whether they leave the Eurozone or not.
Demand would be created through requirement for Dracha for electricity,
Out of interest, how would the Greek government pay for the fuel to generate that power?
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
That's entirely dependant on the MODAL savings of Greek pensioners. If the modal Greek pensioner has 1000 EU of savings earning 70 Euros per annum interest, then getting a new pension in New Currency Equivalent of Euro750 a month instead of their old pension of Eur340 per month plus Eur5 from savings means they will prefer the change.
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
You assume a Grecian only buys products produced in Greece.
What if a pensioner needs a spare part for his Stihl chainsaw to cut wood to burn as fuel.
Suddenly that brake drum costs 3 weeks pension as the drachma implodes.
How unpatriotic. What's wrong with a Greek made chainsaw?
Greek chainsaw assembly line workers probably get to retire at 32 due to the danger of cut finger.
But don't worry - they will dance in the street as they get paid £1Bn new drachma a week which buys them 10ml of petrol.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Perhaps pensioners are
" of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy)."
Which is true I guess.
Extreme leftie economics is a harsh old game.
You should understand.
A Dual Currency solution is not left wing. Creating a market in currency to use within a country is a Capitalist, market based solution.
It's not leftist. It's just bad policy. Dual currency systems don't work. Remember Gresham's law: bad money drives out the good.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The demand is Keynsian from a new currency which may or may not be stable. Given it would start with M0 = 0 it would be stable for a reasonable period of time no matter how the government spent.
No, it really wouldn't. A currency is worth what people are prepared to pay or exchange for it. Who would want new Drachmas?
That is why any move is going to involve most of the domestic transactions within Greece still be operated in Euros, whether they leave the Eurozone or not.
Demand would be created through requirement for Dracha for electricity,
Out of interest, how would the Greek government pay for the fuel to generate that power?
It would need a friendly sponsor. Perhaps a country with much oil, a country which needs friends in the world, a country that lacks allies and wants very much to extend its sphere of influence...
@lindayueh: Greece FM Varoufakis 'No debt talks with EU-IMF troika' http://t.co/MaRk1su08X Seeks direct talks with EZ leaders to cancel 1/2 of debt owed
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
The value of their Euros would be completely unaffected whether they moved them or not. Additionally, the loss of Euro wealth by those with Euro wealth would not be seen as any problem by the Greek government. To their worldview, anyone left in Greece with any substantial wealth is part of the problem.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Where does demand come from if no one has any money?
The demand is Keynsian from a new currency which may or may not be stable. Given it would start with M0 = 0 it would be stable for a reasonable period of time no matter how the government spent.
No, it really wouldn't. A currency is worth what people are prepared to pay or exchange for it. Who would want new Drachmas?
That is why any move is going to involve most of the domestic transactions within Greece still be operated in Euros, whether they leave the Eurozone or not.
Demand would be created through requirement for Dracha for electricity,
Out of interest, how would the Greek government pay for the fuel to generate that power?
It would need a friendly sponsor. Perhaps a country with much oil, a country which needs friends in the world, a country that lacks allies and wants very much to extend its sphere of influence...
That would endear it to the countries nearby that actually have some money - come to Greece on holiday - it's like the Crimea but with less durable goods.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
.
The ability of Greek banks to repay their debts (to their depositors) is dependent on them having the assets to do so.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Yes but anyone who still has any level of savings in a Greek bank is of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy). The Greek economy needs Demand, not rich people with money in the bank propped up by Austerity economics and increasing future debt obligations for the Greek state (which effectively means future, poor, taxpayers.
Are Greek pensioners going to be happy receiving pensions in drachmas rather than Euros ?
Oh, they'll be ecstatic, following a 50% devaluation. Too late by then though. IMHO the rest of the EU has to help them out of this mess.
Why?
Because helping them, through some process of debt reduction, is the least worst of the options. Its not pretty, but its not exactly unheard of. Indeed, Germany was one of the key beneficiaries in the mid 20th century. See wikipedia on London Agreement on German External Debts. Ironic isn't it?
I am afraid that your thinking is still indicative of the money tree fallacy. If Greece is "forgiven" its debts in current circumstances the consequences fall largely on the taxpayers of the EZ whose debt is increased by the amount of the forgiveness. When most EU governments are struggling to stay in office because of the consequences of necessary austerity in their own countries how sustainable is that?
Ask the Germans what they think about paying the pension of a Greek who retired at 50 from a job he barely turned up for. Ask what they think about a PM who thinks that laying a wreath at the memorial for victims of the Nazis is his first priority.
And this shows the second part of the problem. Greece had an economy where paying tax was largely optional but public provision was generous. That has not been fixed and Syriza have no plans to fix it. Quite the reverse in fact. SO even if the debt were fixed the problem is not solved and will not be as long as they are foolish enough to believe left wing nonsense.
I do like the irony of Germany telling Greece it should not get debt forgiveness when the entire German Economic Miracle was built on the foundation of 100% external debt forgiveness (and considerable internal debt forgiveness).
Comments
The Conservatives are toxic to most of the population there (Especially central belt), like certain parts of the North of England on steroids. Any hint, any hint whatsoever that they'll work with the Conservatives will be on SLAB's posters. Ruling out any sort of arrangement with the Conservatives is very important for them to maintain their big chunk of ex-SLAB and ex-Lib Dem votes.
It is the big two parties that support heavy controls from black nations while allowing open immigration from most white ones.
To argue that UKIP's unfounded Xenophobia is not Racism is to pretend that squares are not rectangles.
But the plan seems to involve the IMF consenting to a massive haircut. Which they have never done, and will not do now.
The leadership of SYRIZA believes that ultimately, the other Eurozone countries will pay the price, and write-off a chunk of Greece's debt. I do not believe that is saleable in Germany or France or Italy, and I do not believe the IMF will consent to that.
Therefore, with every raising of the ante, Grexit (and a disorganised, bad tempered, unplanned one) becomes more and more likely. I have no doubt that, behind the scenes, the Russians are encouraging the Greeks to up the ante.
One of the interesting things about him is the time he's spend working for Valve. I would speculate that one of his back up positions will be Dual Currency (although NOT a cryptocurrency given his views on bitcoin).
Anyway, it's nonsense that UKIP are xenophobic. Nigel Farage is married to a foreigner for goodness sake. UKIP critics just like to engage in smearing UKIP with these terms because they can't engage in actual policy argument: the common agricultural policy is a disaster, free movement of labour is a disaster, the single currency is a disaster. Europhiles thus have to resort to smears.
How does "dual currency" solve the problem? Are Greek's banks assets to be denominated in Drachma or Euros?
(Joke!)
Any particular reason for the near-pyramid shape? Were you just trying to troll physicists..?
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/2116055/Specials.html
When Will The Chilcot Report Be Published? - When Will The Chilcot Report Be Published?
Before or on 7th May 2015
5/1
8th May onwards until 31st July 2015
4/6
1st August until 31st December 2015
7/2
2016 onwards
4/1
'I went to speak to 100 students at the university today'
She's got better things to do than talk to students that aren't in her constituency?
I assume any plan (note plan as opposed to unplanned chain of chaotic/ forced outcomes) to leave the Euro must:
1. Be done in absolute secrecy
2. In advance and left on a shelf ready to roll
3. Implemented lightning fast on a Friday night the moment the markets close
4. Accompanied by broader and immediate regs such as capital controls
Whether any garlic zone country will ever do this is debatable but they surely all have thought about it and have their plans locked in a safe ready for someone to push the nuclear button.
I'm just wondering if Syriza is indeed deadly serious and of the view that they cannot pay their debts and must be forgiven - and if they are not to be forgiven then pushing the nuclear button, defaulting, returning to the Drachma and getting on with life is about to happen. Interesting times.
As long as Greece does not have to borrow on the international markets they could in theory simply continue to circulate the euros they have but refuse to pay or play with the EU. My understanding is that they have a primary surplus at the moment but whether that would remain the case after a default like that is anyone's guess, probably not.
It is possible that they could have an economy like Panama and simply not have their own currency. Unlike Scotland they do not have a major financial services industry to protect although Cyprus might have a heart attack.
Of course, they also want to have much easier debt repayment and a lot of debt written off.
It would be in the interest of every citizen or company in Greece to remove every last Euro from their account. Your plan involves the destruction of the Greek banking sector.
Meanwhile the Greek government would be attempting to pay people in Drachma, which they would have very little value outside Greece,
But here's the crux: all the solutions to the Greek problem involve the consent of the IMF, the ECB and the EU. Tsipras seems to believe that they will all, eventually, say "Greece leaving the Euro and defaulting on it's debts is so terrible, that forgiveness is a better option. Here's your haircut Greece, and please, feel free to forget privatisations, labour market reform, or the need to balance your budget. And you know what, Greece doesn't need all those tourists, anyway."
Do you think that Mrs Merkel would get re-elected if that happened? Do you think the IMF (which is desperately frightened by the coming wave of Latin American defaults) will want to look like a soft touch right now?
Partly because he was a heroic leader of men who seized the initiative and knew victory wherever he went. And mostly because he was Macedonian.
You mean they want the benefits of the currency union, but not the costs.
Where have I heard that before?
"We are working with the troika, to consider the best of all possible options. It will clearly be a difficult negotiation, but we are determined to get the best deal for the Greeks."
And while you were saying all that, you would be secretly working on the things you've suggested. (Which would, incidentally, give you much more bargaining power with the EU and the IMF.)
What SYRIZA seems to be aiming for is to be effectively kicked out the Euro by driving the domestic banking industry out of business. If the ECB cannot support the Greek banking sector, then it could only be done by a forced conversion to Drachma and massive use of the printing press.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2932868/School-forced-apologise-hundreds-pupils-shown-slide-listed-Ukip-alongside-BNP-National-racist-group.html
School making feeble excuses.
Keziah Featherstone, headteacher of the Bristol school, looks and acts crazy.
Yet Labour are on 34% - mind boggling.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_QQTmDGeRpOU/S0eLWB6cwhI/AAAAAAAABEE/WoHpZ3I7EPo/s1600/_DSC3858.jpg
This is trying to troll physics!
So it is not a pain free option but it is a possible way forward. A new drachma looks doomed to failure. It is hard to imagine less propitious circumstances for a new currency than this.
Given that they are the largest owners of Greek government bonds, that is by no means a certainty.
Paddy Power
BetFair sportsbook
Greece.
A new socialist utopia on the Med seems within touching distance...
Just shot out from 4.5 to 5.5..
You would need to have savings over Eur70k in savings to be worse off. I wouldn't like to guess just how low that figure actually is (not just pensioners with Eur70k savings but Eur70k still in Greece.
" of no interest to Syriza (and probably of no value to the Greek economy)."
Which is true I guess.
Extreme leftie economics is a harsh old game.
I would bet on one of the MidWest governors. Not sure which one yet. Or Rubio (although I can't quite get myself to believe this). If it were not for his brother, I think Jeb would be the obvious choice, but again, I just don't feel it in my gut.
That was a very compelling article. I knew about Charles' shenanigans with architecture but no idea that he was pushing quakery to the extent that medical doctors were losing their research teams. Very alarming.
Obviously I had £20 on Yes @ 9-2
What if a pensioner needs a spare part for his Stihl chainsaw to cut wood to burn as fuel.
Suddenly that brake drum costs 3 weeks pension as the drachma implodes.
A Dual Currency solution is not left wing. Creating a market in currency to use within a country is a Capitalist, market based solution.
That is why any move is going to involve most of the domestic transactions within Greece still be operated in Euros, whether they leave the Eurozone or not.
I just don't buy that Bush can make it through. His last name could be overcome if he was willing to distance himself with his brother, but he has too much of a sense of WASPish family loyalty to do that. Plus, the two issues he's most associated with are immigration reform, which the Right already hates, and Common Core, which is shaping up to be their next Obamacare in terms of anger-inducing subjects.
Rubio is a bit more plausible, but he got himself into a pickle on immigration reform too. He pushed it too hard for the base, and now he's trying to make up for it by adopting highly right wing positions that will put off the moderates. I think you're right on a Midwestern governor. Walker seems like the obvious one. He's a bit bland, but that won't invalidate him and the GOP will likely give it to the last serious candidate standing, like last time.
Not easy but feasible and some things (such as the export performance) are more likely under this proposal.
I'm sure some hedge fund or other will try and do it by proxy or whatnot though.
Not sure the government could last long under those circumstances.
Demand would be created through requirement for Dracha for electricity, government services, exports, etc.. It would be up to the government to decide how well or badly it manages this.
Did you have any input with the SNP's currency plans ?
How many drachma for a barrel of oil ? For Argentinian beef, for German car parts, for airline fuel, for Dutch lager etc ?
Answer - a lot more than you are offering Mr T..
But don't worry - they will dance in the street as they get paid £1Bn new drachma a week which buys them 10ml of petrol.
@DPJHodges: Don't believe the hype. The election isn't on a knife edge > Total Politics > http://t.co/dPVbnRLdbL
Seeks direct talks with EZ leaders to cancel 1/2 of debt owed
"We warned you..." would be 100% true, although it would have an unsubtle subtext of "... you complete morons."
Ask the Germans what they think about paying the pension of a Greek who retired at 50 from a job he barely turned up for. Ask what they think about a PM who thinks that laying a wreath at the memorial for victims of the Nazis is his first priority.
And this shows the second part of the problem. Greece had an economy where paying tax was largely optional but public provision was generous. That has not been fixed and Syriza have no plans to fix it. Quite the reverse in fact. SO even if the debt were fixed the problem is not solved and will not be as long as they are foolish enough to believe left wing nonsense.