Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
6. A protest vote against Gordon Brown ensuring that the UK was stuck with Scotland? :-)
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
Precisely a bet I first suggested to the PB.com readership at 25/1 from Ladbrokes several months ago and subsequently at 20/1 and yet again more recently at more modest odds ..... do try to pay attention!
I did see that but so many bets suggested on here it's hard to decipher the signal from the noise... But Obv well spotted...
10/1 is big now in my eyes when you consider the effectiveness of the combined 34-35% lab/snp vote that seems likely in terms of seats won
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Interesting times for the comrades. Even though the Greens are complete nut cases, they have a strange allure for the leftie types who "really care". If Labour continue to dribble away, it gets to May, and its very obvious Ed is a worse version of Michael Foot & labour ain't got no hope at all of winning, what's to say the loopy leftie types won't go Green and really trash the Labour vote?
Nah, all Labour need do is to hand out DVD copies of the Greens' Aussie Leader Natalie Bennett's alarming ultra-left doctrinal interview with Andrew Neill yesterday and that should do the trick in seeing her party all but totally destroyed electorally.
But in their hearts the loony left agree with. Everybody is born an equality loving socialist. It's the evil Tories that corrupt the world directly or via their evil proxy Tony Blair.
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
Bet365 & Laddies have this on offer at 10/1, while PP go 9/1 ..... what exactly is your problem?
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
Bet365 & Laddies have this on offer at 10/1, while PP go 9/1 ..... what exactly is your problem?
I can go to lads betting shop I suppose, I'm not going to bet big anyway only a pony or something so should have no prob
I used to bet big and got all accounts shut, fifteen times over! but now I don't have as much gunpowder it should be easier to get on
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
I don't know what level of coverage you get down south on this. But I can't emphasise enough, it will NOT be a coalition. The SNP are being really clear on this.
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
That is the question, and I think it ultimately depends on the LibDems.
If they don't recover in the polls it will be TOM. If they do, maybe NOM...
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
I don't know what level of coverage you get down south on this. But I can't emphasise enough, it will NOT be a coalition. The SNP are being really clear on this.
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
Well thanks for the advice but I think 10/1 is a decent price.. The coverage I've seen, albeit from typing "labour SNP coalition" into Google, doesn't seem too negative for the bet
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
I don't recall those numbers. The L&N model is currently showing TOM as overwhelmingly likely. I am agnostic on it, other than to recall that it was spot on in 2010, and has predicted every election since the War broadly accurately. We have another month or so of PM approval figures to feed it.
However, I would hazard that the chance of NOM is lower than it was in 2010. I think Labour are heading for a hiding, not only in Scotland.
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM - and I sense he has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket.
stjohn - no, nothing like that, as I mentioned he has recently rated NOM as being an 85% shot ..... if you don't believe me track back over his comments, but it could take you a little time!
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Currently NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here. Tempting to go all in on Tory Maj [given the prices] but these are still just 1% leads.
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
I don't recall those numbers. The L&N model is currently showing TOM as overwhelmingly likely. I am agnostic on it, other than to recall that it was spot on in 2010, and has predicted every election since the War broadly accurately. We have another month or so of PM approval figures to feed it.
However, I would hazard that the chance of NOM is lower than it was in 2010. I think Labour are heading for a hiding, not only in Scotland.
Fair enough, I rescind - if you don't recall the 85% NOM figure then I'm probably wrong. Perhaps I was confusing you with another poster, if so many apologies.
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
I don't know what level of coverage you get down south on this. But I can't emphasise enough, it will NOT be a coalition. The SNP are being really clear on this.
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
If that's true (and I have no reason to doubt you) then there's a problem: Labour won't have enough on their own to form a minority government. It'll be propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, live, die, repeat....:-(
Some people were discussing whether George Galloway is short or 5'4" or 5'6" or whatever. No he isn't. As far as I can remember, he's slightly taller than me, and I'm 5'8".
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Currently NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here. Tempting to go all in on Tory Maj [given the prices] but these are still just 1% leads.
Tissue Price - sorry to be dim but what do your figures here relate to?
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Currently NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here. Tempting to go all in on Tory Maj [given the prices] but these are still just 1% leads.
Tissue Price - sorry to be dim but what do your figures here relate to?
My betfair book, in "points" terms (i.e. not giving away my stake size!)
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Currently NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here. Tempting to go all in on Tory Maj [given the prices] but these are still just 1% leads.
Hi Tissue Price.
Can you clarify what you mean by your post. 'NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here.'?
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
I don't recall those numbers. The L&N model is currently showing TOM as overwhelmingly likely. I am agnostic on it, other than to recall that it was spot on in 2010, and has predicted every election since the War broadly accurately. We have another month or so of PM approval figures to feed it.
However, I would hazard that the chance of NOM is lower than it was in 2010. I think Labour are heading for a hiding, not only in Scotland.
Fair enough, I rescind - if you don't recall the 85% NOM figure then I'm probably wrong. Perhaps I was confusing you with another poster, if so many apologies.
It's true that until about a year ago L&N were indicating NOM as overwhelmingly likely. Maybe that's where you are recalling those numbers from.
But it's all changed, and as tim was wont to call me out on, it's the figures three months before the election that L&N nail their flag to...
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Currently NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here. Tempting to go all in on Tory Maj [given the prices] but these are still just 1% leads.
Hi Tissue Price.
Can you clarify what you mean by your post. 'NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here.'?
Hi stjohn - see previous response - that's my current book. I feel like a right contrarian after the last couple of years on here, but all is coming rosy...
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Currently NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here. Tempting to go all in on Tory Maj [given the prices] but these are still just 1% leads.
Hi Tissue Price.
Can you clarify what you mean by your post. 'NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here.'?
Hi stjohn - see previous response - that's my current book. I feel like a right contrarian after the last couple of years on here, but all is coming rosy...
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
Thanks Peter.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
Currently NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here. Tempting to go all in on Tory Maj [given the prices] but these are still just 1% leads.
Tissue Price - sorry to be dim but what do your figures here relate to?
My betfair book, in "points" terms (i.e. not giving away my stake size!)
I do wonder where the Tories would be polling now if they hadn't shed so much of their Right flank to UKIP. 36%+ is my guess.
The Tory vote has held up surprisingly well considering the rise of UKIP. This must be a combination of two factors: A lot of Kipper supporters are not ex Tory; for every Tory lost to the Kippers another Tory has been recruited from elsewhere.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
It will be interesting to see how many kippers actually turn out and vote. I get the impression that a fair chunk of their support comes from the screw 'em all camp, which is no great incentive to turn out on the day. But strange things have happened and they may surprise me.
Worth remembering that SYRIZA is basically a "screw 'em all" party.
I do wonder where the Tories would be polling now if they hadn't shed so much of their Right flank to UKIP. 36%+ is my guess.
The Tory vote has held up surprisingly well considering the rise of UKIP. This must be a combination of two factors: A lot of Kipper supporters are not ex Tory; for every Tory lost to the Kippers another Tory has been recruited from elsewhere.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
There are loads of UKIP voters in marginal seats. UKIP's best chances of gains are mostly in marginal seats.
UKIP's support falls away very sharply in certain regions (Greater London, Scotland, Welsh-speaking Wales) or specific types of seat (university cities, very wealthy seats) rather than in marginals per se.
I think that UKIP will mostly pick up votes across the true blue shires and not actually impact on many seats (not least because their votes will come from several parties). The Tories will pick up LD seats and also in midland marginal seats, in small towns and suburbs, where elections are decided.
It may be good second places for the Kippers, which may be useful if there is a second 2010 election.
I think if the kippers are playing the long game those second places are vital because of this
Observer/Opinium poll shows 31% of voters would back Nigel Farage’s party if they believed it could win in their constituency
They believe they have a well of untapped support that currently isn't voting for them because the voter thinks it will be a wasted vote. If however they get a set of close seconds a lot of those voters might be prepared to lend UKIP their vote.
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
I don't know what level of coverage you get down south on this. But I can't emphasise enough, it will NOT be a coalition. The SNP are being really clear on this.
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
If that's true (and I have no reason to doubt you) then there's a problem: Labour won't have enough on their own to form a minority government. It'll be propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, live, die, repeat....:-(
Supply and Confidence provides votes to pass budgets, no confidence votes and agreed policies.
How that works out will depend how Labour go on Full Fiscal Autonomy and Debt Interest obligations. The better deal for Scotland the more free reign Labour will get with England with SNP votes propping them up.
Some people were discussing whether George Galloway is short or 5'4" or 5'6" or whatever. No he isn't. As far as I can remember, he's slightly taller than me, and I'm 5'8".
With 20,000 voters vanishing from the Bradford electoral roll, George may be short... of postal votes. Allegedly.
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
I have a four-figure sum on the same...
Rod. How likely do you now rate "TOM" and "NOM" in percentage terms?
Hi stjohn, in case Rod has retired to bed, I think I can answer this question for you as I'm sure I recently recall him quoting an 85% likelihood of a NOM. Since he then favours a TOM over a LOM, it follows that his assessment of a TOM is between 8% and 14%, say 11% as being the mid point.
I don't recall those numbers. The L&N model is currently showing TOM as overwhelmingly likely. I am agnostic on it, other than to recall that it was spot on in 2010, and has predicted every election since the War broadly accurately. We have another month or so of PM approval figures to feed it.
However, I would hazard that the chance of NOM is lower than it was in 2010. I think Labour are heading for a hiding, not only in Scotland.
Fair enough, I rescind - if you don't recall the 85% NOM figure then I'm probably wrong. Perhaps I was confusing you with another poster, if so many apologies.
It's true that until about a year ago L&N were indicating NOM as overwhelmingly likely. Maybe that's where you are recalling those numbers from.
But it's all changed, and as tim was wont to call me out on, it's the figures three months before the election that L&N nail their flag to...
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
I don't know what level of coverage you get down south on this. But I can't emphasise enough, it will NOT be a coalition. The SNP are being really clear on this.
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
If that's true (and I have no reason to doubt you) then there's a problem: Labour won't have enough on their own to form a minority government. It'll be propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, live, die, repeat....:-(
Supply and Confidence provides votes to pass budgets, no confidence votes and agreed policies.
How that works out will depend how Labour go on Full Fiscal Autonomy and Debt Interest obligations. The better deal for Scotland the more free reign Labour will get with England with SNP votes propping them up.
What policies other than Full Fiscal Autonomy and Debt Interest would SNP support?
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
I don't know what level of coverage you get down south on this. But I can't emphasise enough, it will NOT be a coalition. The SNP are being really clear on this.
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
If that's true (and I have no reason to doubt you) then there's a problem: Labour won't have enough on their own to form a minority government. It'll be propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, live, die, repeat....:-(
Supply and Confidence provides votes to pass budgets, no confidence votes and agreed policies.
How that works out will depend how Labour go on Full Fiscal Autonomy and Debt Interest obligations. The better deal for Scotland the more free reign Labour will get with England with SNP votes propping them up.
What policies other than Full Fiscal Autonomy and Debt Interest would SNP support?
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
It won't be a coalition though.
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
If it's not a coalition it'll be a losing bet but I think 10/1 is worth a pop
I don't know what level of coverage you get down south on this. But I can't emphasise enough, it will NOT be a coalition. The SNP are being really clear on this.
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
If that's true (and I have no reason to doubt you) then there's a problem: Labour won't have enough on their own to form a minority government. It'll be propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, propose bill, get defeated, motion of confidence, win with SNP help, live, die, repeat....:-(
Supply and Confidence provides votes to pass budgets, no confidence votes and agreed policies.
How that works out will depend how Labour go on Full Fiscal Autonomy and Debt Interest obligations. The better deal for Scotland the more free reign Labour will get with England with SNP votes propping them up.
How is reducing expenditure in Scotland a good deal for the SNP?
Over on the Vote UK discussion forum, individual polls have just been set up for each marginal constituency and members can forecast who they think will win the seats.
I've set up a spreadsheet summarising the latest data. It'll be interesting to see how accurate the predictions prove to be on election night:
Over on the Vote UK discussion forum, individual polls have just been set up for each marginal constituency and members can forecast who they think will win the seats.
I've set up a spreadsheet summarising the latest data. It'll be interesting to see how accurate the predictions prove to be on election night:
Over on the Vote UK discussion forum, individual polls have just been set up for each marginal constituency and members can forecast who they think will win the seats.
I've set up a spreadsheet summarising the latest data. It'll be interesting to see how accurate the predictions prove to be on election night:
Over on the Vote UK discussion forum, individual polls have just been set up for each marginal constituency and members can forecast who they think will win the seats.
I've set up a spreadsheet summarising the latest data. It'll be interesting to see how accurate the predictions prove to be on election night:
Comments
10/1 is big now in my eyes when you consider the effectiveness of the combined 34-35% lab/snp vote that seems likely in terms of seats won
Bookies might pay out on an "announced Supply and Confidence Arrangement" but they won't be paying out on a "vote by vote in principle".
I used to bet big and got all accounts shut, fifteen times over! but now I don't have as much gunpowder it should be easier to get on
The SNP have no desire to govern England or Northern Ireland and no great impetus to interfere in Wales. Supply and Confidence in exchange for Full Fiscal Autonomy will be the deal.
If they don't recover in the polls it will be TOM. If they do, maybe NOM...
Labour are out of it, at any rate.
As you will have noted, Rod has replied. He hasn't gone with an answer in percentage terms but he seems to suggest that there are only two possible outcomes - TOM and NOM, (he discounts LOM) - and I sense he now has TOM in the 25%-50% bracket, as suggested by his significant betting position.
However, I would hazard that the chance of NOM is lower than it was in 2010. I think Labour are heading for a hiding, not only in Scotland.
Some people were discussing whether George Galloway is short or 5'4" or 5'6" or whatever. No he isn't. As far as I can remember, he's slightly taller than me, and I'm 5'8".
Can you clarify what you mean by your post. 'NOM +4, Con +19, Lab -2 here.'?
But it's all changed, and as tim was wont to call me out on, it's the figures three months before the election that L&N nail their flag to...
It will be interesting to see SPIN's prices tomorrow on Tory seats.
If the views expressed here are shared more generally then the prices should move, as per your prediction.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/25/nearly-third-of-voters-prepared-to-support-ukip They believe they have a well of untapped support that currently isn't voting for them because the voter thinks it will be a wasted vote. If however they get a set of close seconds a lot of those voters might be prepared to lend UKIP their vote.
How that works out will depend how Labour go on Full Fiscal Autonomy and Debt Interest obligations. The better deal for Scotland the more free reign Labour will get with England with SNP votes propping them up.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/L&N.PNG
I've set up a spreadsheet summarising the latest data. It'll be interesting to see how accurate the predictions prove to be on election night:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10RLXcjEC53skefzikBQ9GC9CzMMqDdGisXxPzQ02ayM/edit?pli=1#gid=0
Anyone can join the forum:
http://www.vote-2012.proboards.com
I just don't see the value in what you're doing.
Personally I think these amateur psephologists are going to be very accurate at getting the result right, but time will tell.
I'll be amused if about 50 "anoraks" (no offence) do as well as the betting markets.
Don't waste your time, seriously...