I think we're starting to see a slight movement. I've felt for a while that first week of Feb we would start to see the polls settle and patterns emerge and what we're seeing is a week ahead of that. In one way it's all within MoE, but in another because we're seeing it across different pollsters it looks like a trend. It's slight, very slight, but there's a little firming up in the Conservative share.
So what now YouGov? Yesterday was a draw and Thursday a Labour lead of 2. I have to say that if asked before this morning, I would have said Populus with Labour lead of 3, Ashcroft with Tory lead of 1 and YouGov a Labour lead of 3. That Survation and ComRes are showing Tory leads at all is a bit of a shock. Isnt the London Evening Standard swing under 4% ? If so that must be encouraging for the group of London Tory MPs seeking to defend their seats.
I think we're starting to see a slight movement. I've felt for a while that first week of Feb we would start to see the polls settle and patterns emerge and what we're seeing is a week ahead of that. In one way it's all within MoE, but in another because we're seeing it across different pollsters it looks like a trend. It's slight, very slight, but there's a little firming up in the Conservative share.
I wonder if there is a coincidence that we have 2 Tory leads from hitherto Labour favouring pollsters and Ave It rejoins us together with someone who has chosen the unfortunate profile name of a certain wine selling farmer from Merseyside.
Imagine you're a pr agency tasked with making Weird Ed the PM. Seriously, where would you even start?
Play up the other members of his team, such as they are, and just hammer home the evil Tories lines - probably wouldn't be enough in normal times, but with UKIP and the LDs, it could be enough depending on the SNP/Green effect.
Not one mention of Weird Ed in the plan? And play up Balls? Or are they going to have to leave their top two out of the election campaign?
I'll ask what I really meant now; how do you sell Ed Miliband, the man, as Prime Minister?
You don't. Labour could win this because of Tory weakness, not really their own strengths. SO you avoid inasmuch as is possible making this a presidential style contest and where Ed M comes up you can contrast the hyperbolistic Tory claims about him with the humdrum reality and hope people do not fear what he may do, and dislike Cameron (or rather the Tories) more.
Not a very positive strategy, but it plays safe and could be enough.
Nope - but the NPxMP line that the reds are still just in the lead is coming under some threat....
Indeed. Gives some hope to the blues, though that they need to be significantly in the lead undercuts it somewhat. But if sustained crossover does occur, however slightly, celebration would seem to be in order. I cannot see what might have caused it, given those defending that the Tories had not already taken the lead sometimes stated it was because people wouldn't begin to take notice until March.
Two appeals to potentially work with the Tories in 2 days... the kippers are wobbling.
Just think back to Dougie's frenzied 1-eyed tweeting late last year on the sofa boys. I did think he'd settled down a little on the personal stuff in recent days, perhaps this is why!
Perhaps the 102 seats aren't private polling as well?
Douglas will be rejoining the Tories in the first week of March.
Before Kippers get all frenetic, I merely said the first week of March, as that's when Mike's going on holiday, and I'll be editing PB.
AND YOU ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WHEN MIKE GOES ON HOLIDAY....
Yep, disaster strikes the coalition. Theres a major terrorist strike in London, Dave falls of his hoarse and breaks his neck. What more could possibly go wrong; Douglas's move overshadowed by events.
The worry for Labour must be the wide variety of pollsters now showing leads for Tories (albeit sporadic): Ashcroft, YouGov, Survation, Comres...
What's more it's hard to see a reason why Labour's vote should recover. The next few months are likely to be economically favourable for the Tories, and people are hardly gonna suddenly realise they adore that charismatic Ed Miliband, after all....
Was just about to post something similar. How can an opposition party go from this to a winning position? I just cannot see it. Labour should be 10% ahead not neck and neck at best.
I still think Cameron's going to lead the Conservatives to an outright win. In fact I'm becoming more confident about it.
Today's YouGov London poll for the Standard had very interesting voting intention by age group. It shows Lab 8 points ahead of the Conservatives overall, but the Conservatives ahead of Lab by a high sixteen points among 18-24 year olds (42% vs 26%). Partly this may be explained by UKIP having a very bad brand among this age group and so more of the right is sticking with the Tories. But I wonder if it is also related to the Tories being toxic for fewer of the younger generation (no memories of the 90s or Thatcher) and possibly the shift to the right on economic/ welfare issues we have heard about. The other striking thing in the poll among this age groups was the Greens only just behind Labour (the Blair/ Brown years recent enough to make Labour toxic for much of the left?)
The young now associate Labour with being the party of youth unemployment. Under this Govt., youth unemployment is massively down. You can tell this at every PMQs - it is always a Tory MP talking about how youth unemployment is down by some large % in their constituency. When did Labour last talk about it at all?
And as I keep suggesting, for the Conservatives there is the added bonus of LibDems polling poorly. I expect a minimum of 20 blue gains in E&W from the yellows.
Just compiled the PB poll average for January based on the results so far. For all the Blue smiles today, it still has a Labour lead. In fact, it's closer to a Yellow-Green crossover than a Red-Blue one.
Today's YouGov London poll for the Standard had very interesting voting intention by age group. It shows Lab 8 points ahead of the Conservatives overall, but the Conservatives ahead of Lab by a high sixteen points among 18-24 year olds (42% vs 26%). Partly this may be explained by UKIP having a very bad brand among this age group and so more of the right is sticking with the Tories. But I wonder if it is also related to the Tories being toxic for fewer of the younger generation (no memories of the 90s or Thatcher) and possibly the shift to the right on economic/ welfare issues we have heard about. The other striking thing in the poll among this age groups was the Greens only just behind Labour (the Blair/ Brown years recent enough to make Labour toxic for much of the left?)
And as I keep suggesting, for the Conservatives there is the added bonus of LibDems polling poorly. I expect a minimum of 20 blue gains in E&W from the yellows.
Please talk us through the analysis you've done to arrive at that figure of at least 20 Conservative Gains from the Liberal Democrats in England & Wales.
The worry for Labour must be the wide variety of pollsters now showing leads for Tories (albeit sporadic): Ashcroft, YouGov, Survation, Comres...
What's more it's hard to see a reason why Labour's vote should recover. The next few months are likely to be economically favourable for the Tories, and people are hardly gonna suddenly realise they adore that charismatic Ed Miliband, after all....
Was just about to post something similar. How can an opposition party go from this to a winning position? I just cannot see it. Labour should be 10% ahead not neck and neck at best.
I still think Cameron's going to lead the Conservatives to an outright win. In fact I'm becoming more confident about it.
And as I keep suggesting, for the Conservatives there is the added bonus of LibDems polling poorly. I expect a minimum of 20 blue gains in E&W from the yellows.
Please talk us through the analysis you've done to arrive at that figure of at least 20 Conservative Gains from the Liberal Democrats in England & Wales.
Two appeals to potentially work with the Tories in 2 days... the kippers are wobbling.
Just think back to Dougie's frenzied 1-eyed tweeting late last year on the sofa boys. I did think he'd settled down a little on the personal stuff in recent days, perhaps this is why!
Perhaps the 102 seats aren't private polling as well?
Douglas will be rejoining the Tories in the first week of March.
Before Kippers get all frenetic, I merely said the first week of March, as that's when Mike's going on holiday, and I'll be editing PB.
AND YOU ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WHEN MIKE GOES ON HOLIDAY....
Lord Ashcroft always releases his most vital polls when I'm unable to react quickly to them. Continuing this, I see that the Scottish constituency polls are coming out when I'm in a meeting next Monday.
What's interesting IMO is that until relatively recently it was the consensus of the Westminster Bubble that UKIP would probably be reduced to around 5% by the time of the election. It looks like their judgment was very wrong on this. Even if UKIP do decline from now onwards it's difficult to see them going below 10%.
How many times have UKIP equalled or bettered 18% since it was claimed as an outlier?
6 or 7?
I remember "tim" saying that UKIP would retreat to 2-3% at the GE and they would never win an MP.
In retrospect, his profile as a prophet is fairly absurd.
Equally I remember the days when Neil would tell us how bad a leader Nigel Farage was. The same Nigel Farage who has taken UKIP from 3% in the polls to 23%, got the first UKIP MPs in the Commons, and WON the European elections outright.
Imagine how well the kippers would be doing if they had a decent leader, rather than this buffoon.
Speaking as someone who is 200/1 w Ladbrokes to takeover from Farage I think he has done a marvellous job, and laid solid foundations for his successor...
I remember the days of Tim & Neil's predictions.. a boring Saturday night in was enlivened by offering 4/6 that UKIP would poll under 10% in the GE... they were tripping over themselves to fill their boots with "value"
And as I keep suggesting, for the Conservatives there is the added bonus of LibDems polling poorly. I expect a minimum of 20 blue gains in E&W from the yellows.
Please talk us through the analysis you've done to arrive at that figure of at least 20 Conservative Gains from the Liberal Democrats in England & Wales.
No
I thought so. You've plucked that figure straight out of your arse. And yet you expect to be taken seriously on here.
Today's YouGov London poll for the Standard had very interesting voting intention by age group. It shows Lab 8 points ahead of the Conservatives overall, but the Conservatives ahead of Lab by a high sixteen points among 18-24 year olds (42% vs 26%). Partly this may be explained by UKIP having a very bad brand among this age group and so more of the right is sticking with the Tories. But I wonder if it is also related to the Tories being toxic for fewer of the younger generation (no memories of the 90s or Thatcher) and possibly the shift to the right on economic/ welfare issues we have heard about. The other striking thing in the poll among this age groups was the Greens only just behind Labour (the Blair/ Brown years recent enough to make Labour toxic for much of the left?)
The young now associate Labour with being the party of youth unemployment.
For a while there was a modest and slightly inconsistent trend for Monday's to be bad for the Tories with things improving as the week went on. Just saying.
lets make it 4-0.. there was a forced choice question that had Ed trailing Dave not sure where I saw it , but its there for sure. We can only hope that this starts to affect the marginals.
Hasn't OGH said that the Tories need to be 6% ahead before they stop losing seats to Labour?
So even on these polls EdM rather than Cameron is likely to be PM.
Or have I missed something?
Yes, on all these three polls, Ed would likely be PM. But Us Blues (where are you Phil Roberts?) are in good heart: May is looking (reasonably) set fair.
And as I keep suggesting, for the Conservatives there is the added bonus of LibDems polling poorly. I expect a minimum of 20 blue gains in E&W from the yellows.
Please talk us through the analysis you've done to arrive at that figure of at least 20 Conservative Gains from the Liberal Democrats in England & Wales.
No
I thought so. You've plucked that figure straight out of your arse. And yet you expect to be taken seriously on here.
That's obviously not the case, no-one could post the garbage he/she does and expect to be taken seriously.
And as I keep suggesting, for the Conservatives there is the added bonus of LibDems polling poorly. I expect a minimum of 20 blue gains in E&W from the yellows.
Please talk us through the analysis you've done to arrive at that figure of at least 20 Conservative Gains from the Liberal Democrats in England & Wales.
No
I thought so. You've plucked that figure
No I haven't. I'm just refusing to share it with you Casino Royale. There's a difference.
Hasn't OGH said that the Tories need to be 6% ahead before they stop losing seats to Labour?
So even on these polls EdM rather than Cameron is likely to be PM.
Or have I missed something?
These clearly portend that the Tories will open up a 7-8% lead in a few months. Somehow.
Honestly, if it hadn't been for the SNP surge, I'm at a bit of a loss as to how any Tories might think they'd end up with most seats even. With the surge, I can conceive of the Tories winning most seats if they are very lucky, but as you say even a lead doesn't do the job for them unless all the cards fall perfectly for them.
Still, a nice moment for the Tories amid all the gloom.
I need to check properly, but I think this is the first time since Vetogasm that has seen three pollsters having the Tories ahead on the same day.
Ah, the vetogasm, good times. I guess with the GE approaching everyone should pick their favourite __gasm's of the parliament. The first is probably the best.
Decent day for the Tories but lets get it in perspective - they are leads of one point, and it's still only six leads out of 36 in January. They've got a way to go before we can call it anything like real crossover. It's the same number of poll leads as November and we only have a handful left.
Ah, the vetogasm, good times. I guess with the GE approaching everyone should pick their favourite __gasm's of the parliament. The first is probably the best.
Comments
Put another 2 notches on the tory lead count for January.
New @ComResPolls phone poll has Con ahead for the 1st time since Sep 2011. Con 31 (+2) Lab 30 (-2) UKIP 17 (+1) Lib Dems 8 (-4) GRN 7 (+2)
ComRes or Survation
Your take, compouter?
They just don't get 10/13/15/17% any more those kippers
or with ICM
when theres an S in the month
or an even numbered year
Only two polls, blah, blah, blah.
But even so, a great day so far for Con:
- Just one behind with Populus (normally a good pollster for Lab)
- Level with Ashcroft
- Ahead with Survation and ComRes.
Two Tory leads, two ties, and just one trailing in the last five polls.
(^_-)
Now that's a big polling day.
Its not just the BBC, the Mail have had her writing pointless articles for them as well.
Surely there are hundreds of other economists they could use.
Not a very positive strategy, but it plays safe and could be enough.
On another topic, woe the LDs Indeed. Gives some hope to the blues, though that they need to be significantly in the lead undercuts it somewhat. But if sustained crossover does occur, however slightly, celebration would seem to be in order. I cannot see what might have caused it, given those defending that the Tories had not already taken the lead sometimes stated it was because people wouldn't begin to take notice until March.
Scottish sub sample now out SNP 48%, LAB 25%,TORY 12%, UKIP 9%, LIB 7% - no score for Greens! sample only 77.
Stick that in your Baxter and smoke it!
Will be interested to see if YouGov also shows an increase for UKIP.
Was just about to post something similar. How can an opposition party go from this to a winning position? I just cannot see it. Labour should be 10% ahead not neck and neck at best.
I still think Cameron's going to lead the Conservatives to an outright win. In fact I'm becoming more confident about it.
shows SNP 50% LAB 26% TORY 14% LIB/DEMS 5% GREENS 4% AND UKIP 1%
We could even get 50 gains from Labour!!
There's the hat trick.....
Another one for Mr. Wisemann to put in the blue column. Amazing how fickle our red friends are on their scoreboards.....
what A day.
I remember the days of Tim & Neil's predictions.. a boring Saturday night in was enlivened by offering 4/6 that UKIP would poll under 10% in the GE... they were tripping over themselves to fill their boots with "value"
Con 34%
Lab 33%
UKIP 15%
Green 7%
LD 6%
Updated the thread header with the YouGov figures.
So even on these polls EdM rather than Cameron is likely to be PM.
Or have I missed something?
Unless you are Ed No-mates.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2926778/Tories-open-clear-lead-Labour-voters-forced-choose-Cameron-Miliband.html
I call swingback.
'Another one for Mr. Wisemann to put in the blue column. Amazing how fickle our red friends are on their scoreboards.....'
Compouter also gone walkies.
Honestly, if it hadn't been for the SNP surge, I'm at a bit of a loss as to how any Tories might think they'd end up with most seats even. With the surge, I can conceive of the Tories winning most seats if they are very lucky, but as you say even a lead doesn't do the job for them unless all the cards fall perfectly for them.
Still, a nice moment for the Tories amid all the gloom.
3-1-1 in the last five
By January was the call...
Labour's PB poll average share (three monthly gaps to keep numbers sensible):
Oct 2012: 42.1
Jan 2013: 40.9
Apr 2013: 38.4
Jul 2013: 38.1
Oct 2013: 37.1
Jan 2014: 36.7
Apr 2014: 36.4
Jul 2014: 34.8
Oct 2014: 33.5
Jan 2015: 32.9*
* provisional - incomplete month
In that same period, the Tories have gone from 32.6 to 31.4, with almost all months since July 2013 within one point of 31.5.
Now, that produces an indirect swing but it's one that's weak and could easily reverse (or accelerate) on all sorts of prompts.
@ David_Herdson
Party pooper.
Waiting for humble pie from Mr Wiseman.
Baxterise:
Cons 37%
Lab 30%
LibDem 7%
UKIP 12%
Green 7%
Cons majority 24.
Those are very modest shifts on some of tonight's polls. I actually think the margin will wind up wider than that, but we shall see.
(Oh and CR you'll even get a rough and ready list of yellow to blues.)