Hasn't OGH said that the Tories need to be 6% ahead before they stop losing seats to Labour?
So even on these polls EdM rather than Cameron is likely to be PM.
Or have I missed something?
No you are right. The lead at the last election was 7.1% so a lead of 1% really doesn't cut it. There is also the factor that scotland means the Tories have to be even further ahead in England to achieve the same result. I think the Tory vote will be more efficient this time but Labour still have an advantage. Finally although there are some slightly better figures tonight it would be fair to say the main driver of this is Labours continued decline.
But they must seriously regret not getting rid of that muppet when they had time to do so.
I do wonder where the Tories would be polling now if they hadn't shed so much of their Right flank to UKIP. 36%+ is my guess.
The Tory vote has held up surprisingly well considering the rise of UKIP. This must be a combination of two factors: A lot of Kipper supporters are not ex Tory; for every Tory lost to the Kippers another Tory has been recruited from elsewhere.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
@iainmartin1: Mirror's Survation poll tonight has Lib Dems on 7% and @theSNP on 5%. The Lib Dems could be overtaken by the Nats.
That figure is difficult to believe because in 2010 the total number of votes in Scotland accounted for 8.5% of the GB total, so if the SNP are on 5% that implies almost 60% of the Scottish vote.
A couple of years ago, you would have been laughed off PB if you had said, we would have three polls in one day with Tory leads AND UKIP polling between 15% and 23%
If you put that Survation result into Electoral Calculus you come out with complete nonsense. It predicts every one of UKIP's 10 gains is in Scotland - including Orkney & Shetland.
Hasn't OGH said that the Tories need to be 6% ahead before they stop losing seats to Labour?
So even on these polls EdM rather than Cameron is likely to be PM.
Or have I missed something?
No you are right. The lead at the last election was 7.1% so a lead of 1% really doesn't cut it. There is also the factor that scotland means the Tories have to be even further ahead in England to achieve the same result. I think the Tory vote will be more efficient this time but Labour still have an advantage. Finally although there are some slightly better figures tonight it would be fair to say the main driver of this is Labours continued decline.
But they must seriously regret not getting rid of that muppet when they had time to do so.
They must be getting desperate if bad Al is back/.
But they must seriously regret not getting rid of that muppet when they had time to do so.
Armando Ianucci has been quoted as saying the inspiration for making Nicola Murray leader of the opposition was Ed's successful bid. If he could do it, why couldn't she.
Nobody though to ask the obvious question. Even if she could do it, it didn't mean he could...
If you put that Survation result into Electoral Calculus you come out with complete nonsense. It predicts every one of UKIP's 10 gains is in Scotland - including Orkney & Shetland.
Baxter uses uniform swing which most people think won't be much help this year.
@iainmartin1: Mirror's Survation poll tonight has Lib Dems on 7% and @theSNP on 5%. The Lib Dems could be overtaken by the Nats.
That figure is difficult to believe because in 2010 the total number of votes in Scotland accounted for 8.5% of the GB total, so if the SNP are on 5% that implies almost 60% of the Scottish vote.
Could just be a weird subsample or a rounding effect. 4.5% would still be about 55% in Scotland but that's MoE of the high 40s they have been polling in.
Decent day for the Tories but lets get it in perspective - they are leads of one point, and it's still only six leads out of 36 in January. They've got a way to go before we can call it anything like real crossover. It's the same number of poll leads as November and we only have a handful left.
The January figures will be bad when published, but some real improvements underway.
Last week Leicester's A E 4 hour target was passed at 97%; and mostly due to discharges exceeding admissions. The tide locally has changed, at least for present. If this is being replicated elsewhere then Labour's NHS card has been played out.
I do wonder where the Tories would be polling now if they hadn't shed so much of their Right flank to UKIP. 36%+ is my guess.
The Tory vote has held up surprisingly well considering the rise of UKIP. This must be a combination of two factors: A lot of Kipper supporters are not ex Tory; for every Tory lost to the Kippers another Tory has been recruited from elsewhere.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
There are loads of UKIP voters in marginal seats. UKIP's best chances of gains are mostly in marginal seats.
UKIP's support falls away very sharply in certain regions (Greater London, Scotland, Welsh-speaking Wales) or specific types of seat (university cities, very wealthy seats) rather than in marginals per se.
All 4 polls today would result in EICIPM but Lab has to stem the flow or Tories biggest party would be favourite.
Kingsman was really good film. Bit of a Bond with more lots of humour.
SPOILER ALERT DO NOT READ THE NEXT SENTENCE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO KNOW ONE OF THE FUNNIEST LINES
TSE will love it methinks one of the most surprising lines came from the Princess of Sweden "If you save the world we can do it in the A**. Now you dont get that in a Bond film.
I do wonder where the Tories would be polling now if they hadn't shed so much of their Right flank to UKIP. 36%+ is my guess.
The Tory vote has held up surprisingly well considering the rise of UKIP. This must be a combination of two factors: A lot of Kipper supporters are not ex Tory; for every Tory lost to the Kippers another Tory has been recruited from elsewhere.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
It will be interesting to see how many kippers actually turn out and vote. I get the impression that a fair chunk of their support comes from the screw 'em all camp, which is no great incentive to turn out on the day. But strange things have happened and they may surprise me.
If anyone think there's any possibility of the LD's polling under 5%, then rather than betting on seat bands or individual constituencis, a better bet would be Alistair Carmichael for next LD leader.
I do wonder where the Tories would be polling now if they hadn't shed so much of their Right flank to UKIP. 36%+ is my guess.
The Tory vote has held up surprisingly well considering the rise of UKIP. This must be a combination of two factors: A lot of Kipper supporters are not ex Tory; for every Tory lost to the Kippers another Tory has been recruited from elsewhere.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
There are loads of UKIP voters in marginal seats. UKIP's best chances of gains are mostly in marginal seats.
UKIP's support falls away very sharply in certain regions (Greater London, Scotland, Welsh-speaking Wales) or specific types of seat (university cities, very wealthy seats) rather than in marginals per se.
I think that UKIP will mostly pick up votes across the true blue shires and not actually impact on many seats (not least because their votes will come from several parties). The Tories will pick up LD seats and also in midland marginal seats, in small towns and suburbs, where elections are decided.
It may be good second places for the Kippers, which may be useful if there is a second 2010 election.
All 4 polls today would result in EICIPM but Lab has to stem the flow or Tories biggest party would be favourite.
The point Labour supporters always miss is that where we're currently at, as of January 2015, is just part of a process that's been going on since Spring 2013.
After being in a slow decline for nearly two years how/why should Labour suddenly "stem the flow" now?
The trend will continue, as it has, to polling day which means by May 7th it is highly likely that the Tories will win the national share of the vote, have most votes and most seats and should be able to carry on in government either as a minority government or in coalition.
A majority for the Tories still looks unlikely to me...
I do wonder where the Tories would be polling now if they hadn't shed so much of their Right flank to UKIP. 36%+ is my guess.
The Tory vote has held up surprisingly well considering the rise of UKIP. This must be a combination of two factors: A lot of Kipper supporters are not ex Tory; for every Tory lost to the Kippers another Tory has been recruited from elsewhere.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
There are loads of UKIP voters in marginal seats. UKIP's best chances of gains are mostly in marginal seats.
UKIP's support falls away very sharply in certain regions (Greater London, Scotland, Welsh-speaking Wales) or specific types of seat (university cities, very wealthy seats) rather than in marginals per se.
I think that UKIP will mostly pick up votes across the true blue shires and not actually impact on many seats (not least because their votes will come from several parties). The Tories will pick up LD seats and also in midland marginal seats, in small towns and suburbs, where elections are decided.
It may be good second places for the Kippers, which may be useful if there is a second 2010 election.
I can confidently forecast there will be no 2nd GE in 2010!!
I'm beginning to think that notwithstanding the Ashcroft polling in their seats, the LibDems must be close to an extinction event with these tiny levels of support. Their election is going to be fronted by a guy that is simply voter repellent. Their fortunes seem to have slumped even further since their near extinction in the Euros.
They are still trying to straddle two horses headed in different directions. They cannot expect to get credit for improving the economy or introducing zero taxes for low earners when they are so semi-detached from the Govt. and still seem embarrassed to be part.
Did Milibelievers miss my earlier question? How do you sell Ed as PM material? There's been a "you don't" answer, but surely Labour can sell their man better than that..
A couple of years ago, you would have been laughed off PB if you had said, we would have three polls in one day with Tory leads AND UKIP polling between 15% and 23%
The potential dream scenario for the LDs arises. The Tories stay in power, without the LDs. They have to deliver on Europe promises and inevitably make a hash of it. Labour react badly to defeat.
Meanwhile, the LDs find a route back to relevance, pointing to their role in the relatively calm days of the coalition, before the nutters took over.
All 4 polls today would result in EICIPM but Lab has to stem the flow or Tories biggest party would be favourite.
The point Labour supporters always miss is that where we're currently at, as of January 2015, is just part of a process that's been going on since Spring 2013.
After being in a slow decline for nearly two years how/why should Labour suddenly "stem the flow" now?
The trend will continue, as it has, to polling day which means by May 7th it is highly likely that the Tories will win the national share of the vote, have most votes and most seats and should be able to carry on in government either as a minority government or in coalition.
A majority for the Tories still looks unlikely to me...
We will see.
Certainly a wake up call for left of centre voters intending to vote green. Cant see the Lab vote dropping much further myself.
As I say we will see if I am wrong I will admit I was wrong but I still think unless Lab declines by about a further 3% EICIPM is still likely.
Have to admit I am less confident of this outcome than prior to Xmas but think it is still all to play for.
Did Milibelievers miss my earlier question? How do you sell Ed as PM material? There's been a "you don't" answer, but surely Labour can sell their man better than that..
In the battle of the blands, Cameron is a slightly more appealing bland, so I'm not sure what else Labour could do on that front, it's just a question of whether the lack of answer will sink them or not. I'd prefer a Cameron led coalition to continue, though I'm open to being convinced on that point, but I just don't think Labour need to fear the lack of an answer as much as some people think. They shouldn't have let it even get to become a potential issue, but it's the only significant thing the Tories have going for them (the economy is a maybe as it is to start slowing, we have been warned, most people haven't felt the effects - though they are beginning to - the deficit reduction has failed, and even if things are better, Labour could not seem as fearful a risk as a result)
I'm beginning to think that notwithstanding the Ashcroft polling in their seats, the LibDems must be close to an extinction event with these tiny levels of support. Their election is going to be fronted by a guy that is simply voter repellent. Their fortunes seem to have slumped even further since their near extinction in the Euros.
They are still trying to straddle two horses headed in different directions. They cannot expect to get credit for improving the economy or introducing zero taxes for low earners when they are so semi-detached from the Govt. and still seem embarrassed to be part.
Indeed. At these levels, anywhere is a potential loss. Sure they could get lucky, rebound a little and concentrate support where it is most needed and get 25-35 depending on how much of a GE boost they get (if any), but the complacency is a little ridiculous given they are still leaking support. At this point, the leakage surely has to be in part people who still want to vote LD but don't think they can win anywhere as I would have thought the Red Liberals had jumped ship to Labour and the Greens long ago.
All 4 polls today would result in EICIPM but Lab has to stem the flow or Tories biggest party would be favourite.
The point Labour supporters always miss is that where we're currently at, as of January 2015, is just part of a process that's been going on since Spring 2013.
After being in a slow decline for nearly two years how/why should Labour suddenly "stem the flow" now?
The trend will continue, as it has, to polling day which means by May 7th it is highly likely that the Tories will win the national share of the vote, have most votes and most seats and should be able to carry on in government either as a minority government or in coalition.
A majority for the Tories still looks unlikely to me...
We will see.
Certainly a wake up call for left of centre voters intending to vote green. Cant see the Lab vote dropping much further myself.
As I say we will see if I am wrong I will admit I was wrong but I still think unless Lab declines by about a further 3% EICIPM is still likely.
Have to admit I am less confident of this outcome than prior to Xmas but think it is still all to play for.
I'm not so sure. From where Labour is now I could see them dropping another 2-3% before polling day, which brings the outside possibility that Ed could actually poll worse than El Gord, LOL!!!
Peter Checksfield @petercmargate 3h3 hours ago @UKIPNorthThanet@ukip_sththanet I'm 52 years young & I've just joined a political party for the first time in my life..#UKIP of course! : )
And with that brief look at a possible future, good night all.
All 4 polls today would result in EICIPM but Lab has to stem the flow or Tories biggest party would be favourite.
The point Labour supporters always miss is that where we're currently at, as of January 2015, is just part of a process that's been going on since Spring 2013.
After being in a slow decline for nearly two years how/why should Labour suddenly "stem the flow" now?
The trend will continue, as it has, to polling day which means by May 7th it is highly likely that the Tories will win the national share of the vote, have most votes and most seats and should be able to carry on in government either as a minority government or in coalition.
A majority for the Tories still looks unlikely to me...
We will see.
Certainly a wake up call for left of centre voters intending to vote green. Cant see the Lab vote dropping much further myself.
As I say we will see if I am wrong I will admit I was wrong but I still think unless Lab declines by about a further 3% EICIPM is still likely.
Have to admit I am less confident of this outcome than prior to Xmas but think it is still all to play for.
I'm not so sure. From where Labour is now I could see them dropping another 2-3% before polling day, which brings the outside possibility that Ed could actually poll worse than El Gord, LOL!!!
I would be surprised if Lab drops below Brown levels,
Only way it could happen IMO is if the left of centre voters who fell for LD promises make same mistake with Greens in 2015.
As most people realise we either have a CON or LAB lead Govt. Voting for fringe parties on the left just makes the former more likely.
If ukip can poll around 16-17% as they have today, and the two big parties poll continue around 61-62% it will be better than I could possibly have hoped for
Surprised polling low 30s is such a celebration time for the cons, although some take it as a reason to Baxter 37% I see
Let's see what happens if ukip poll 30%, just a number ive plucked out of the air for no reason
We still have a very political budget to be delivered by Osborne. Expect some very populist measure funded out of the higher tax take from reducing top rates from 50% to 45%. Labour will thcweem and thcweem and thcweem until they are sick, but it will be a win for George. Also Inheritence Tax will feature, aimed at pulling back kippers. I also would not be surprised to see something given back to students. Whether it will be enough to help the LibDems regain some credit with lost student support is moot. It may be George gets that credit.
I also still expect Labour to have a mare of a campaign and to lose several points once the election is called.
Surprised polling low 30s is such a celebration time for the cons, although some take it as a reason to Baxter 37% I see
I guess the reason is that being a party of government, Con supporters know they have further room for improvement between now and polling day, while the principle opposition should lose a bit more.
Can't see Con getting to 37% though. Mid 30's looks the most they can expect. Down a bit from 2010. Labour somewhere close to where they was in 2010 (maybe up a bit or even down a bit) UKIP up a lot and Lib-Dem's.... LOL!
All 4 polls today would result in EICIPM but Lab has to stem the flow or Tories biggest party would be favourite.
The point Labour supporters always miss is that where we're currently at, as of January 2015, is just part of a process that's been going on since Spring 2013.
After being in a slow decline for nearly two years how/why should Labour suddenly "stem the flow" now?
The trend will continue, as it has, to polling day which means by May 7th it is highly likely that the Tories will win the national share of the vote, have most votes and most seats and should be able to carry on in government either as a minority government or in coalition.
A majority for the Tories still looks unlikely to me...
We will see.
Certainly a wake up call for left of centre voters intending to vote green. Cant see the Lab vote dropping much further myself.
As I say we will see if I am wrong I will admit I was wrong but I still think unless Lab declines by about a further 3% EICIPM is still likely.
Have to admit I am less confident of this outcome than prior to Xmas but think it is still all to play for.
I'm not so sure. From where Labour is now I could see them dropping another 2-3% before polling day, which brings the outside possibility that Ed could actually poll worse than El Gord, LOL!!!
It seems to me the current Labour numbers reflect a schism with the anti nuclear far (hard?) left. The pacifist left. Will they continue to desert? The LDs were the repository of choice for all of them last time. Given the disillusion with cleggasm what is significant is that they are not going back to Labour. There is of course time... which makes voting tory all the more important.
Interesting times for the comrades. Even though the Greens are complete nut cases, they have a strange allure for the leftie types who "really care". If Labour continue to dribble away, it gets to May, and its very obvious Ed is a worse version of Michael Foot & labour ain't got no hope at all of winning, what's to say the loopy leftie types won't go Green and really trash the Labour vote?
One swallow does not make a summer but what would consistent Tory leads do to Labour morale? They look a bit fragile to me.
At this point I don't think that morale would be much affected so long as it remains close - everyone has their plans set in concrete so it's really just a question of getting on with it. But I do empathise more with DavidL and others at the long string of Labour +1 results - I can see now how annoying they must have been! :-)
It will be interesting to see how the betting markets move tomorrow, especially Sporting's GE Seats spread-betting market, which IIRC the Tories have never headed since it was introduced a month or two back. Before tonight's polls both Lab and the Tories were offered at mid-spread levels of 282 (i.e. 279-285 seats)
What a strange thing to come out with... What is your point?
Ceilings and floors. Upper ranges, lower ranges.
Bit by bit Labour are discovering and hitting lower ranges, and Brown polled 29.7%, so once they start going 30% or lower, what does that imply about Labour's eventual vote share?
What a strange thing to come out with... What is your point?
Ceilings and floors. Upper ranges, lower ranges.
Bit by bit Labour are discovering and hitting lower ranges, and Brown polled 29.7%, so once they start going 30% or lower, what does that imply about Labour's eventual vote share?
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Another good reason to move south...the northeast is facing a snow storm of 'historic proportions'. Up to 3 feet of snow for Boston. New Jersey and Massachusetts have already been declared disaster areas.
They are forecasting 70mph winds on eastern Long Island. All NYC public transport has been taken off the road.
Interesting times for the comrades. Even though the Greens are complete nut cases, they have a strange allure for the leftie types who "really care". If Labour continue to dribble away, it gets to May, and its very obvious Ed is a worse version of Michael Foot & labour ain't got no hope at all of winning, what's to say the loopy leftie types won't go Green and really trash the Labour vote?
Nah, all Labour need do is to hand out DVD copies of the Greens' Aussie Leader Natalie Bennett's alarming ultra-left doctrinal interview with Andrew Neill yesterday and that should do the trick in seeing her party all but totally destroyed electorally.
It will be interesting to see how the betting markets move tomorrow, especially Sporting's GE Seats spread-betting market, which IIRC the Tories have never headed since it was introduced a month or two back. Before tonight's polls both Lab and the Tories were offered at mid-spread levels of 282 (i.e. 279-285 seats)
I'm not touching that market with a 50 foot barge pole.
As far as calling the odds is concerned the online speccie is just a megaphone for the kipperati. These days they have to shout very loud to each other.
It will be interesting to see how the betting markets move tomorrow, especially Sporting's GE Seats spread-betting market, which IIRC the Tories have never headed since it was introduced a month or two back. Before tonight's polls both Lab and the Tories were offered at mid-spread levels of 282 (i.e. 279-285 seats)
I'm not touching that market with a 50 foot barge pole.
You could try using Roman Polanski - he's a pole nobody wants to touch.
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
It will be interesting to see how the betting markets move tomorrow, especially Sporting's GE Seats spread-betting market, which IIRC the Tories have never headed since it was introduced a month or two back. Before tonight's polls both Lab and the Tories were offered at mid-spread levels of 282 (i.e. 279-285 seats)
I'm not touching that market with a 50 foot barge pole.
Another good reason to move south...the northeast is facing a snow storm of 'historic proportions'. Up to 3 feet of snow for Boston. New Jersey and Massachusetts have already been declared disaster areas.
They are forecasting 70mph winds on eastern Long Island. All NYC public transport has been taken off the road.
Another good reason to move south...the northeast is facing a snow storm of 'historic proportions'. Up to 3 feet of snow for Boston. New Jersey and Massachusetts have already been declared disaster areas.
They are forecasting 70mph winds on eastern Long Island. All NYC public transport has been taken off the road.
Global warming - ain't it COOOLL?!
It certainly is here - we're on high wind advisory most of the night, (no such thing as a 'gale' here), and we will drop below freezing overnight.
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
Indeed. At these levels, anywhere is a potential loss. Sure they could get lucky, rebound a little and concentrate support where it is most needed and get 25-35 depending on how much of a GE boost they get (if any), but the complacency is a little ridiculous given they are still leaking support. At this point, the leakage surely has to be in part people who still want to vote LD but don't think they can win anywhere as I would have thought the Red Liberals had jumped ship to Labour and the Greens long ago.
IIRC, MM was of the opinion that the LibDems tally of MPs could fall to as few as 12 in number, equivalent in Martin Day speak to 2.5 London Cabs' full. Just think, in such circumstances, we need never ever worry ourselves again about the likes of Tim Farron and his tiny gang.
It will be interesting to see how the betting markets move tomorrow, especially Sporting's GE Seats spread-betting market, which IIRC the Tories have never headed since it was introduced a month or two back. Before tonight's polls both Lab and the Tories were offered at mid-spread levels of 282 (i.e. 279-285 seats)
I'm not touching that market with a 50 foot barge pole.
But it's OGH's favourite GE market doncha know?
Ye I've also heard what happens when you get it wrong from OGH himself too.
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
I reckon Farron is going to have a bigger majority than Carmichael after the GE - both will hold ofc but ye Farron to have the safest Lib Dem seat in UK I reckon.
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
What levels did they go down to in the polls pre 2010 GE?
Does that matter? They were the government then, now they are the opposition.
Incumbency advantage.
Doesn't really matter to me but I would say all that's happening is labour are losing votes to the SNP, who will no doubt prop them up in a hung parliament.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
Musing upon this further I am tempted to place my first non ukip related GE bet
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
Precisely a bet I first suggested to the PB.com readership at 25/1 from Ladbrokes several months ago and subsequently at 20/1 and yet again more recently at more modest odds ..... do try to pay attention!
Well I have just had my first significant 2015 UK GE bet - on a Tory Overall Majority.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe. 2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support. 3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum. 4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE. 5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.
Comments
But they must seriously regret not getting rid of that muppet when they had time to do so.
The presence of UKIP in itself helps detox the Tory brand to a lot of centrist voters, and these centrist voters will be more likely to be in marginal constituencies than the turnip taliban.
Nobody though to ask the obvious question. Even if she could do it, it didn't mean he could...
@Peterthepunter Tipster of the year
Rejoice!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
[Waves to compouter]
Last week Leicester's A E 4 hour target was passed at 97%; and mostly due to discharges exceeding admissions. The tide locally has changed, at least for present. If this is being replicated elsewhere then Labour's NHS card has been played out.
UKIP's support falls away very sharply in certain regions (Greater London, Scotland, Welsh-speaking Wales) or specific types of seat (university cities, very wealthy seats) rather than in marginals per se.
All 4 polls today would result in EICIPM but Lab has to stem the flow or Tories biggest party would be favourite.
Kingsman was really good film. Bit of a Bond with more lots of humour.
SPOILER ALERT
DO NOT READ THE NEXT SENTENCE IF YOU DO NOT WANT TO KNOW ONE OF THE FUNNIEST LINES
TSE will love it methinks one of the most surprising lines came from the Princess of Sweden "If you save the world we can do it in the A**. Now you dont get that in a Bond film.
It looks as if the much-maligned Rod Crosby may yet be proved spot on!
He's 20/1 at every major bookmaker.
What hope for the Labour opposition now...
Tories have shed 7-10%, Labour stand still over the parliament. Doesn't quite square with talk upthread is of Tory outright win, but we'll see.
Agree thought that current mood music favours Tories. Labour always need some enthusiasm to win office. Tories don't.
It may be good second places for the Kippers, which may be useful if there is a second 2010 election.
After being in a slow decline for nearly two years how/why should Labour suddenly "stem the flow" now?
The trend will continue, as it has, to polling day which means by May 7th it is highly likely that the Tories will win the national share of the vote, have most votes and most seats and should be able to carry on in government either as a minority government or in coalition.
A majority for the Tories still looks unlikely to me...
They are still trying to straddle two horses headed in different directions. They cannot expect to get credit for improving the economy or introducing zero taxes for low earners when they are so semi-detached from the Govt. and still seem embarrassed to be part.
Is an arse as I spent 100 euros of my own money last year so PB could use the charts in thread headers.
Meanwhile, the LDs find a route back to relevance, pointing to their role in the relatively calm days of the coalition, before the nutters took over.
Certainly a wake up call for left of centre voters intending to vote green. Cant see the Lab vote dropping much further myself.
As I say we will see if I am wrong I will admit I was wrong but I still think unless Lab declines by about a further 3% EICIPM is still likely.
Have to admit I am less confident of this outcome than prior to Xmas but think it is still all to play for.
Lab 37% (+1) Con 23% (-) UKIP 16% (-2) Plaid Cymru 10% (-1) Greens 8% (+1) LD 6% (+1)
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-could-damp-squib-8521804?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
'No time for a novice'.
@UKIPNorthThanet @ukip_sththanet I'm 52 years young & I've just joined a political party for the first time in my life..#UKIP of course! : )
And with that brief look at a possible future, good night all.
Only way it could happen IMO is if the left of centre voters who fell for LD promises make same mistake with Greens in 2015.
As most people realise we either have a CON or LAB lead Govt. Voting for fringe parties on the left just makes the former more likely.
Surprised polling low 30s is such a celebration time for the cons, although some take it as a reason to Baxter 37% I see
Let's see what happens if ukip poll 30%, just a number ive plucked out of the air for no reason
Do you know how many firms have had the conservatives on 30 or lower in the same period?
We still have a very political budget to be delivered by Osborne. Expect some very populist measure funded out of the higher tax take from reducing top rates from 50% to 45%. Labour will thcweem and thcweem and thcweem until they are sick, but it will be a win for George. Also Inheritence Tax will feature, aimed at pulling back kippers. I also would not be surprised to see something given back to students. Whether it will be enough to help the LibDems regain some credit with lost student support is moot. It may be George gets that credit.
I also still expect Labour to have a mare of a campaign and to lose several points once the election is called.
Can't see Con getting to 37% though. Mid 30's looks the most they can expect. Down a bit from 2010. Labour somewhere close to where they was in 2010 (maybe up a bit or even down a bit) UKIP up a lot and Lib-Dem's.... LOL!
I had to read the comment several times as it was so un-Tim-like...
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/01/are-ladbrokes-really-political-betting-experts/
Bit by bit Labour are discovering and hitting lower ranges, and Brown polled 29.7%, so once they start going 30% or lower, what does that imply about Labour's eventual vote share?
Incumbency advantage.
They are forecasting 70mph winds on eastern Long Island. All NYC public transport has been taken off the road.
Tory vote is declining as well just not as quickly as labours, but they have no obvious partner to make Dave PM
"An opinion pollster once tested me..."
These Tory leads disguise the truth, that a labour SNP coalition is very likely to be the most workable result.. 10/1 seems big and that is my tip... Now to find a way of getting on... Anyone care to help??
Indeed. At these levels, anywhere is a potential loss. Sure they could get lucky, rebound a little and concentrate support where it is most needed and get 25-35 depending on how much of a GE boost they get (if any), but the complacency is a little ridiculous given they are still leaking support. At this point, the leakage surely has to be in part people who still want to vote LD but don't think they can win anywhere as I would have thought the Red Liberals had jumped ship to Labour and the Greens long ago.
IIRC, MM was of the opinion that the LibDems tally of MPs could fall to as few as 12 in number, equivalent in Martin Day speak to 2.5 London Cabs' full. Just think, in such circumstances, we need never ever worry ourselves again about the likes of Tim Farron and his tiny gang.
Tonight's hat-trick of poll leads for the Tories feels like a tipping point and a TOM (Tory Overall Majority) is starting to look like a real possibility.
So many factors seem to be on their side.
1. Good economic news which looks unlikely to worsen before the GE. Especially compared to Europe.
2. Ed is Crap. Progressive and steady fall in Labour poll support.
3. Polls now moving in Tories" favour. Momentum.
4. Swingback. Tory actual poll figures are static. More likely Tory support will increase than decrease as we approach the GE.
5. Ed is Crap.
NOM is still the likeliest outcome but TOM looks value at current prices to me. I'm on with Betfair at 6.30 average odds.