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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take the lead with Survation for the first time in t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take the lead with Survation for the first time in this Parliament
UKIP will be delighted to be in the 20s, albeit with a pollster that has generally been the most favourable to UKIP. The Tories will be delighted to be in the lead for the first time with Survation this parliament, but in the context of things, they are polling at the same level as their 1997 nadir.
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I'm surprised.
Lab 311
Con 284
UKIP 10
Nat 10
Amusingly the 10 UKIP seats are all in Scotland!
Not sure I believe UKIP 23%. Interesting and useful to see the SNP included.
Mr. Socrates, SKIP rather than UKIP?
Edited extra bit: Diplomacy V has kicked off. I am, once again, England.
Patrick O'Flynn@oflynnmep·8 mins8 minutes ago
Mirror/Survation tonight has Ukip on 23% and ComRes has us on 17%. Both up on their own previous polls. Exciting times.
Where is the left vote going on it's holidays now?
Bradford’s Electorate Falls By 20,000 After Electoral Fraud Clamp Down http://wp.me/p1ko7Z-4XE #Electoralfraud
You can insult a pollster's mother, and they will still send you their embargoed polling.
Break the embargoed polling, and you are permanently in their books of badness.
I'd like to see how much these numbers drop when non-British citizens get banned from voting. Farage has already raised this point over a potential EU referendum, but let's hope he takes that argument for all elections.
By clampdown, does that mean the move to individual voter registration....???
Good work done by the coalition so far, but more needs doing.
Goodness!
Relevant comparison is the two in the two party debate are the formal Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition which lead parties with a few hundred MPs each. When UKIP reach that level it should be in all three debates.
Yes not often here now but coming back for GE2015!
12 hours
Numbers below will be highly misleading - some people will have moved / died and new people will have arrived.
I would be very, very surprised if the actual electorate has fallen by 20,000.
So rather than misleading spin, let's have actual numbers.
Electorate 2010 = ?
Electorate 2015 = ?
for each seat please.
#letsalllaughatdave
Stick the first one this whole Parliament (!) from Survation in to your abacus - let's see how many more we can squeeze in this month.
I reckon another couple with a fair wind.
I am thinking we will see Ukip in second place in a reputable poll (including Survation) between now and GE.
It shows Lab 8 points ahead of the Conservatives overall, but the Conservatives ahead of Lab by a high sixteen points among 18-24 year olds (42% vs 26%).
Partly this may be explained by UKIP having a very bad brand among this age group and so more of the right is sticking with the Tories. But I wonder if it is also related to the Tories being toxic for fewer of the younger generation (no memories of the 90s or Thatcher) and possibly the shift to the right on economic/ welfare issues we have heard about.
The other striking thing in the poll among this age groups was the Greens only just behind Labour (the Blair/ Brown years recent enough to make Labour toxic for much of the left?)
Any breakdown by party or errrm any other characteristic :-)
Ukip could work with Dave if the price is right
Madder than Mad Jack McMad.
All the more striking considering that tonight's national poll from Survation has the Greens on a miserable 3%.
Welcome, and can I respectfully point out that calling yourself "Tim" here is rather like that bit in Rebecca when she dresses up like the first wife at the fancy dress party? Entirely your decision, but it might cause less confusion if you changed it to Bruce or similar.
Just think back to Dougie's frenzied 1-eyed tweeting late last year on the sofa boys. I did think he'd settled down a little on the personal stuff in recent days, perhaps this is why!
Perhaps the 102 seats aren't private polling as well?
AND YOU ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS WHEN MIKE GOES ON HOLIDAY....
No reason why CCHQ should know anything about Carswell's slightly chequered political past, obv.
Or maybe it is just a standard presentation of a willingness to do some kind of deal, meaning nothing significant, or means nothing at all. I'm thinking he'll be dialing back on the new party fervour is all.
I'll ask what I really meant now; how do you sell Ed Miliband, the man, as Prime Minister?
The fact that Survation's fieldwork was undertaken yesterday, i.e. on the same day as Bennett's TV interview, is precisely when it would have had the greatest impact on public opinion .... duh!
You heard it here first.
6 or 7?
Him, Steve Webb and Alastair Darling.
It'll be interesting to see how the Greens do. It may be best for them if there are no debates. They get the publicity and sympathy vote without having their leader defenestrated for the public's entertainment.
More importantly....
@SkyNews: DAILY TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: "PM: I'll cut benefits cap to £23,000" #skypapers http://t.co/ouv3wVigmU
However, important for the Conservatives to bang on about it, and even more important to bang on about Miliband voting against the £26k cap.
I agree on the Shoah film. I watched it years ago. Compelling and disturbing.
One image which remained with me was the way Lanzmann interspersed the film with shots of trains endlessly running over tracks. It brought home how something as banal and everyday as a train was the means by which so many people were brought to their deaths.
One other film which is worth seeing is "Le Chagrin et la Pitie" by Ophuls. It's a documentary about France during WW2 and caused quite a stir because the story it told was quite other than the largely invented myth of a France resisting Nazi oppression. It also revealed France's active role in the slaughter of its own Jewish population.
But no harm in saying it again and getting a front page headline!
Will be very popular!