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  • Swiss_Bob said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
    Yep, but it wasn't always (used to be some glamorous lady, if I recall correctly)!
    I'm off to bed. But next time I'll explain why I like the Screaming Eagles.

    Always been a fan of them, from Normandy, Bastogne and Little Rock
    I wouldn't go up in an army helicopter, let alone use one of their parachutes.

    Anyone jumping out of a plane unless it's on fire needs their head examining :-)
    They are an Air Assault Division these days.

    So no jumping out of planes.

    Mostly rappelling or walking off helicopters if you're a Screaming Eagle. Or flying attack helicopters.
    (Smug mode) I've run face first down a vertical cliff, SMG in one hand, rope in the other. No one else in my squad would do it :-)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Ukip in Rochester have acquired a kitchen sink and plan to present it to local Tories in the morning.

    Political banter.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Speedy said:

    Actually those figures about UKIP being 3-4000 votes ahead were just after the polls closed and before the count started:

    KentOnline @Kent_Online · 2h 2 hours ago
    Indications are Mark Reckless will have a majority of between 3 and 4,000. http://bit.ly/1xHvgX9

    So probably those early figures could be postal votes.

    If correct and based on a ~50% turnout, this suggests the following result:

    UKIP ............. 18000 (45%)
    Con .............. 14000 (35%)
    Lab ................ 4000 (10%)
    Greens ........... 2000 (5%)
    Others ........... 2000 (5%)

    Total .............40000 (100%)

    There, you can all go off to bed now ....... Goodnight all!
    2% swing TO Con. Biggest swing to Con governing party since at least Neath, 1991...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    We got turnout figures, I hope:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 32s32 seconds ago
    Turnout 50.67%
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    Rumours from Rochester suggest that the Lib Dems are currently behind the Monster Raving Loony party candidate.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Artist said:

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Ukip in Rochester have acquired a kitchen sink and plan to present it to local Tories in the morning.

    Political banter.

    Or just plain tasteless and cheap...
  • RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    Actually those figures about UKIP being 3-4000 votes ahead were just after the polls closed and before the count started:

    KentOnline @Kent_Online · 2h 2 hours ago
    Indications are Mark Reckless will have a majority of between 3 and 4,000. http://bit.ly/1xHvgX9

    So probably those early figures could be postal votes.

    If correct and based on a ~50% turnout, this suggests the following result:

    UKIP ............. 18000 (45%)
    Con .............. 14000 (35%)
    Lab ................ 4000 (10%)
    Greens ........... 2000 (5%)
    Others ........... 2000 (5%)

    Total .............40000 (100%)

    There, you can all go off to bed now ....... Goodnight all!
    2% swing TO Con. Biggest swing to Con governing party since at least Neath, 1991...
    Lies, Damn Lies and Statisics!
  • Artist said:

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Ukip in Rochester have acquired a kitchen sink and plan to present it to local Tories in the morning.

    Political banter.

    Classic Cricked Neck.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Speedy said:

    We got turnout figures, I hope:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 32s32 seconds ago
    Turnout 50.67%

    Eurgh!!

    I got that wrong big time
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    Artist said:

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Ukip in Rochester have acquired a kitchen sink and plan to present it to local Tories in the morning.

    Political banter.

    Or just plain tasteless and cheap...
    Yeah... that would leave an unpleasant taste if they went and did that.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Artist said:

    Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Ukip in Rochester have acquired a kitchen sink and plan to present it to local Tories in the morning.

    Political banter.

    Or just plain tasteless and cheap...
    Wickes?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
    Interesting, because the consensus of a lot of election nerds is that this is the only possibility of a LD gain in 2015.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Australian Green Mekon leader hailing that saving their third deposit in 40 years is fantastic proof of the Green "surge"...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    edited November 2014

    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
    I thought we had had a specific confirmation that the LibDems will be putting all resources into holding what they have got? This will be a safe Tory seat next May.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    RodCrosby said:

    Australian Green Mekon leader hailing that saving their third deposit in 40 years is fantastic proof of the Green "surge"...

    Small steps, can't deny the improvement in the Green share recently.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Australian Green Mekon leader hailing that saving their third deposit in 40 years is fantastic proof of the Green "surge"...

    At least the the MLRP leader would be entertaining. Bring him on...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    We got turnout figures, I hope:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 32s32 seconds ago
    Turnout 50.67%

    Slightly lower than Clacton which was 51.2%.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited November 2014
    I have never been a fan of Emily Thornberry, as a rude and patronising politician, the shoe has never fitted the foot more snuggle than it does with this woman when she appears in the media. In her on-screen persona she comes across as an extremely rude and charmless individual on a regular basis, and I suspect that is true off camera too. This tweet/picture was most definitely a resigning issue for this out of touch Labour Shadow Cabinet member. The fact that no one in the media, or even her own Labour colleagues who originally saw that tweet saw it as anything other than snobbish comment speaks volumes.

    Seriously, if I had passed that house today, my first thought would have been of a house full of happy England supporters following their Euro result and that win over Scotland... But Emily obviously doesn't do real life or football for that matter!
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
    Interesting, because the consensus of a lot of election nerds is that this is the only possibility of a LD gain in 2015.
    Nah. Some of us have predicted Lib Dem gains in Watford and Camborne
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    We got turnout figures, I hope:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 32s32 seconds ago
    Turnout 50.67%

    Slightly lower than Clacton which was 51.2%.
    Not bad for a late November by-election.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    UKIP about 45%, Cons 35%, Labour 15%, Greens 3%, Monster Raving loonies 1% Lib Dems 0.5%.

    This is the rumour.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    fitalass said:

    I have never been a fan of Emily Thornberry, as a rude and patronising politician, the shoe has never fitted the foot more snuggle than it does with this women when she appears in the media. This tweet/picture was most definitely a resigning issue for this out of touch Labour Shadow Cabinet member. And the fact that no one in the media or even her own Labour colleagues who originally saw that tweet saw it as anything other than snobbish comment speaks volumes.

    Seriously, if I had passed that house today, my first thought would have been of a house full of happy England supporters following their Euro result and that win over Scotland... But Emily obviously doesn't do real life or football for that matter!

    I think they could - and should - have ridden the media storm on this one. Making it a resignation gives the story more potency, raises further questions about Miliband's future and means that any future Twitter slips will have to lead to more resignations.

    Certainly a bad day to make yourself the front page news...
  • Speedy said:

    We got turnout figures, I hope:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 32s32 seconds ago
    Turnout 50.67%

    Wow ....... SkyBet's +/- tipping point (for some odd reason) was 50.5%!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
    Interesting, because the consensus of a lot of election nerds is that this is the only possibility of a LD gain in 2015.
    Nah. Some of us have predicted Lib Dem gains in Watford and Camborne
    That's true. I didn't say all election nerds.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
    Interesting, because the consensus of a lot of election nerds is that this is the only possibility of a LD gain in 2015.
    Nah. Some of us have predicted Lib Dem gains in Watford and Camborne
    That's true. I didn't say all election nerds.
    This is just what I have heard from yellow insiders - it is no longer a serious target for them.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    fitalass said:

    I have never been a fan of Emily Thornberry, as a rude and patronising politician, the shoe has never fitted the foot more snuggle than it does with this women when she appears in the media. This tweet/picture was most definitely a resigning issue for this out of touch Labour Shadow Cabinet member. And the fact that no one in the media or even her own Labour colleagues who originally saw that tweet saw it as anything other than snobbish comment speaks volumes.

    Seriously, if I had passed that house today, my first thought would have been of a house full of happy England supporters following their Euro result and that win over Scotland... But Emily obviously doesn't do real life or football for that matter!


    I should imagine that 99% of people walking past would barely register it as it's something one sees all the time.

    The fact she thought it something worthy of photographing and posting on Twitter shows how astonishingly disconnected she is from everyday life.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    hucks67 said:

    UKIP about 45%, Cons 35%, Labour 15%, Greens 3%, Monster Raving loonies 1% Lib Dems 0.5%.

    This is the rumour.

    My betting situation is in trouble if UKIP don't make 45%.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Finally I see votes are now been counted in Rochester.
  • Why is Betfair market now suspended?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
    Interesting, because the consensus of a lot of election nerds is that this is the only possibility of a LD gain in 2015.
    Nah. Some of us have predicted Lib Dem gains in Watford and Camborne
    That's true. I didn't say all election nerds.
    This is just what I have heard from yellow insiders - it is no longer a serious target for them.
    That means they've effectively written off every other non-LD seat apart from Watford and perhaps Camborne as TSE says.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034

    Why is Betfair market now suspended?

    Shock Tory win???

    :')
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited November 2014
    The only Lab to Con swing so far this Parliament was at Inverclyde (of all places) - a massive 0.03%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    Finally I see votes are now been counted in Rochester.

    Same timings as Clacton IIRC. They count how many votes were cast altogether first, in order to check that they tally with ballot papers issued. Then they have a short drinks break for the counters around 1am, and then they sort the votes into different parties, before finally counting them.
  • AndyJS said:

    hucks67 said:

    UKIP about 45%, Cons 35%, Labour 15%, Greens 3%, Monster Raving loonies 1% Lib Dems 0.5%.

    This is the rumour.

    My betting situation is in trouble if UKIP don't make 45%.
    That's similar to my forecast at 12:45 am below, but I'll be very surprised if Labour achieves 15%.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Is Paddick a Lord now? Blimey...
  • RobD said:

    Why is Betfair market now suspended?

    Shock Tory win???

    :')
    Stop it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034



    Stop it

    Apologies.... are you in the green for a UKIP win too, or is your book a bit unbalanced?

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
    Interesting, because the consensus of a lot of election nerds is that this is the only possibility of a LD gain in 2015.
    Nah. Some of us have predicted Lib Dem gains in Watford and Camborne
    That's true. I didn't say all election nerds.
    This is just what I have heard from yellow insiders - it is no longer a serious target for them.
    That means they've effectively written off every other non-LD seat apart from Watford and perhaps Camborne as TSE says.
    Certainly Blackwood has been keen to stay in touch with constituents through regular newsletters - which is more than Harris ever did. And the LDs have been slipping back in the council wards.

    It will be interesting to see how it develops locally.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Oh NO, yuck.
    Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent:
    "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Speedy said:

    Oh NO, yuck.
    Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent:
    "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "

    For some reason, that wouldn't surprise me.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    hucks67 said:

    UKIP about 45%, Cons 35%, Labour 15%, Greens 3%, Monster Raving loonies 1% Lib Dems 0.5%.

    This is the rumour.

    The magic number is 0.437%, the figure the Owenite SDP scored at Bootle, 1990(a)...
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Pong said:

    Speedy said:

    Oh NO, yuck.
    Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent:
    "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "

    For some reason, that wouldn't surprise me.
    I suspect Clegg would be happy to see him gone
  • Waiting for a by-election count is akin to watching paint dry (no disrespct intended to fellow PBers), so I'm off to listen to the highly entertaining "Two Mikes" on Talksport radio. Do give 'em a try if you can't sleep overnight Thursday/Friday between 1.00 am and 6.00 am.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014

    AndyJS said:

    hucks67 said:

    UKIP about 45%, Cons 35%, Labour 15%, Greens 3%, Monster Raving loonies 1% Lib Dems 0.5%.

    This is the rumour.

    My betting situation is in trouble if UKIP don't make 45%.
    That's similar to my forecast at 12:45 am below, but I'll be very surprised if Labour achieves 15%.
    In Heywood & Middleton, just a couple of hours before the declaration, everyone was saying the Labour majority would be about 2,000. That shifted of course to a final result of 617. Shows how quickly the projected result can change.
  • RobD said:



    Stop it

    Apologies.... are you in the green for a UKIP win too, or is your book a bit unbalanced?

    Like Tse tomorrow night or johno by reports... win money on a pig dog win, that's like betting on arsenal..
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Opik is, I understand, a friend of the dominatrix-independent, which explains his presence around things. She could well get more votes than his former party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's back to the 60s with Paul Nuttall's enormous spectacles.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    By the way the turnout on the Medway council by-election is higher than the westminster one
    Turnout there was 54.87% or 5928 votes.
  • Why is Betfair market now suspended?

    Possible leaks from the count Dear Boy, leaks!
  • Am off to bed. Will check Betfair when I get up and know the result from how much I've won.

    Good luck to everyone with money on it.
  • Opik is, I understand, a friend of the dominatrix-independent, which explains his presence around things. She could well get more votes than his former party.

    ..... thereby becoming the dominant one.

    I'll get me coat.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Sky reporting that only around 50% turned out for the local election.




    Meanwhile the news is swamped with Thornburys resignation.


    Well you know... You just do.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Pong said:

    Speedy said:

    Oh NO, yuck.
    Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent:
    "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "

    For some reason, that wouldn't surprise me.
    I suspect Clegg would be happy to see him gone
    Opik was the most bizarre and improbable member of the House of Commons since Trebitsch-Lincoln...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    By the way the turnout on the Medway council by-election is higher than the westminster one
    Turnout there was 54.87% or 5928 votes.

    A more prosperous area no doubt.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,034
    new thread...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Good news, the lower the turnout, the lower the Reckless/UKIP majority in the run up to the next GE... And therefore the more likely probability that Reckless will hopefully turnout to be the shortest serving UKIP politician, beating the current record held by Bob Spinks. Lord Ashcroft's Rochester by-election poll could end up being a very useful bell weather indicator for which way this seat and a few others might go at the next GE as the current UKIP performance in the polls starts to slide along with that of the Labour party.

    The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority..
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    We got turnout figures, I hope:
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 32s32 seconds ago
    Turnout 50.67%

    Slightly lower than Clacton which was 51.2%.
This discussion has been closed.