Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):
Con: Nicola Blackwood Lab: Sally Copley LD: Layla Moran UKIP: Alan Harris Greens: Larry Sanders
From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
I thought we had had a specific confirmation that the LibDems will be putting all resources into holding what they have got? This will be a safe Tory seat next May.
I have never been a fan of Emily Thornberry, as a rude and patronising politician, the shoe has never fitted the foot more snuggle than it does with this woman when she appears in the media. In her on-screen persona she comes across as an extremely rude and charmless individual on a regular basis, and I suspect that is true off camera too. This tweet/picture was most definitely a resigning issue for this out of touch Labour Shadow Cabinet member. The fact that no one in the media, or even her own Labour colleagues who originally saw that tweet saw it as anything other than snobbish comment speaks volumes.
Seriously, if I had passed that house today, my first thought would have been of a house full of happy England supporters following their Euro result and that win over Scotland... But Emily obviously doesn't do real life or football for that matter!
I have never been a fan of Emily Thornberry, as a rude and patronising politician, the shoe has never fitted the foot more snuggle than it does with this women when she appears in the media. This tweet/picture was most definitely a resigning issue for this out of touch Labour Shadow Cabinet member. And the fact that no one in the media or even her own Labour colleagues who originally saw that tweet saw it as anything other than snobbish comment speaks volumes.
Seriously, if I had passed that house today, my first thought would have been of a house full of happy England supporters following their Euro result and that win over Scotland... But Emily obviously doesn't do real life or football for that matter!
I think they could - and should - have ridden the media storm on this one. Making it a resignation gives the story more potency, raises further questions about Miliband's future and means that any future Twitter slips will have to lead to more resignations.
Certainly a bad day to make yourself the front page news...
I have never been a fan of Emily Thornberry, as a rude and patronising politician, the shoe has never fitted the foot more snuggle than it does with this women when she appears in the media. This tweet/picture was most definitely a resigning issue for this out of touch Labour Shadow Cabinet member. And the fact that no one in the media or even her own Labour colleagues who originally saw that tweet saw it as anything other than snobbish comment speaks volumes.
Seriously, if I had passed that house today, my first thought would have been of a house full of happy England supporters following their Euro result and that win over Scotland... But Emily obviously doesn't do real life or football for that matter!
I should imagine that 99% of people walking past would barely register it as it's something one sees all the time.
The fact she thought it something worthy of photographing and posting on Twitter shows how astonishingly disconnected she is from everyday life.
Finally I see votes are now been counted in Rochester.
Same timings as Clacton IIRC. They count how many votes were cast altogether first, in order to check that they tally with ballot papers issued. Then they have a short drinks break for the counters around 1am, and then they sort the votes into different parties, before finally counting them.
Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):
Con: Nicola Blackwood Lab: Sally Copley LD: Layla Moran UKIP: Alan Harris Greens: Larry Sanders
From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
Interesting, because the consensus of a lot of election nerds is that this is the only possibility of a LD gain in 2015.
Nah. Some of us have predicted Lib Dem gains in Watford and Camborne
That's true. I didn't say all election nerds.
This is just what I have heard from yellow insiders - it is no longer a serious target for them.
That means they've effectively written off every other non-LD seat apart from Watford and perhaps Camborne as TSE says.
Certainly Blackwood has been keen to stay in touch with constituents through regular newsletters - which is more than Harris ever did. And the LDs have been slipping back in the council wards.
It will be interesting to see how it develops locally.
Oh NO, yuck. Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent: "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "
Oh NO, yuck. Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent: "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "
Oh NO, yuck. Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent: "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "
Waiting for a by-election count is akin to watching paint dry (no disrespct intended to fellow PBers), so I'm off to listen to the highly entertaining "Two Mikes" on Talksport radio. Do give 'em a try if you can't sleep overnight Thursday/Friday between 1.00 am and 6.00 am.
UKIP about 45%, Cons 35%, Labour 15%, Greens 3%, Monster Raving loonies 1% Lib Dems 0.5%.
This is the rumour.
My betting situation is in trouble if UKIP don't make 45%.
That's similar to my forecast at 12:45 am below, but I'll be very surprised if Labour achieves 15%.
In Heywood & Middleton, just a couple of hours before the declaration, everyone was saying the Labour majority would be about 2,000. That shifted of course to a final result of 617. Shows how quickly the projected result can change.
Opik is, I understand, a friend of the dominatrix-independent, which explains his presence around things. She could well get more votes than his former party.
Opik is, I understand, a friend of the dominatrix-independent, which explains his presence around things. She could well get more votes than his former party.
Oh NO, yuck. Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent: "1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "
For some reason, that wouldn't surprise me.
I suspect Clegg would be happy to see him gone
Opik was the most bizarre and improbable member of the House of Commons since Trebitsch-Lincoln...
Good news, the lower the turnout, the lower the Reckless/UKIP majority in the run up to the next GE... And therefore the more likely probability that Reckless will hopefully turnout to be the shortest serving UKIP politician, beating the current record held by Bob Spinks. Lord Ashcroft's Rochester by-election poll could end up being a very useful bell weather indicator for which way this seat and a few others might go at the next GE as the current UKIP performance in the polls starts to slide along with that of the Labour party.
The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority..
Comments
Ukip in Rochester have acquired a kitchen sink and plan to present it to local Tories in the morning.
Political banter.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 32s32 seconds ago
Turnout 50.67%
I got that wrong big time
Seriously, if I had passed that house today, my first thought would have been of a house full of happy England supporters following their Euro result and that win over Scotland... But Emily obviously doesn't do real life or football for that matter!
This is the rumour.
Certainly a bad day to make yourself the front page news...
I should imagine that 99% of people walking past would barely register it as it's something one sees all the time.
The fact she thought it something worthy of photographing and posting on Twitter shows how astonishingly disconnected she is from everyday life.
:')
It will be interesting to see how it develops locally.
Lempit Opik on BBC radio Kent:
"1.00 - Former Lib Dem MP Lembit Opik is on BBC Radio Kent alongside our editor Ian Dunt. Lembik has been incredibly complimentary about Ukip in general and Nigel Farage in particular. He has just revealed on air that he recently had dinner with Farage who he describes as "a natural leader". Could Ukip be about to get its first Lib Dem defection? "
Turnout there was 54.87% or 5928 votes.
Good luck to everyone with money on it.
I'll get me coat.
Meanwhile the news is swamped with Thornburys resignation.
Well you know... You just do.
The Conservative swing back really does seem to be finally under way, but as yet there is no sign of a similar move in the polls for the Libdems. Maybe time to start betting on that Conservative majority..