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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Rochester and Harry Hayfield’s local and Westminste

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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,163
    Lib Dems doing appallingly and Ukip not winning by as big a margin as hoped? All just rumours but it suggests Lib Dems voting tactically for the Tories.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    I claim the crown for tipster of the week:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Early count tallies indicate the Liberal Democrats might be in seventh place behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.

    How has Clegg survived this long?
    The money and vanity of government.
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    Speedy said:

    I claim the crown for tipster of the week:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Early count tallies indicate the Liberal Democrats might be in seventh place behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.

    How has Clegg survived this long?
    I've been told I'm responsible for keeping Ed as leader.

    Because of this thread I wrote

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/22/explaining-the-ed-miliband-polling-paradox/

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    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    Some parts of the city had 6 feet in 24 hours.

    @LouiseSchiavone: Here's what all that snow in Buffalo looks like when you open your front door. http://t.co/F0hT15GjJJ
    Arf - That's awesome. ; )
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 78,005
    edited November 2014
    Wonder, was it the tweet or her comment about the tweet that did for Thornberry?

    "Image of Rochester", if Bad Al was still about would have been spun no problem as something positive or at least not particularly negative. Of course he would be lying / covering up and he never did any of that.

    However, tweeting that image and then telling the Daily Mail

    'It was a house covered in British flags. I've never seen anything like it before.

    'It had three huge flags covering the whole house. I thought it was remarkable. I've never seen a house completely covered in flags.'

    When pressed that flying flags was common, she said: 'I was brought up in a council house and I've never seen anything like it.'

    'I thought it was absolutely amazing,' she added.

    Her spin was worse than the tweet...

    What do Baldwin and the bloke from the Mirror that Ed has as his spin doctors do all day? See who can get him to look like more of a tit?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ashcroft had a 12 point win for UKIP with a Tory regain in May. Seems like a reasonable yardstick to work from.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589
    edited November 2014

    Speedy said:

    I claim the crown for tipster of the week:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Early count tallies indicate the Liberal Democrats might be in seventh place behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.

    How has Clegg survived this long?
    They assumed there had to be some kind of recovery for them as the GE approached and no-one wanted to be tainted with the brush of also having led the LDs in the coalition, and now it's too late to do anything about it. Now it's just time to see if it is a disaster or a mega-disaster, and build a new party out of the ashes.

    Night all.
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    Ken Clarke is already a member of our new moist tory party winoweurotgays
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2014

    Ken was one of the best SOS for Health in my 32 years

    Lansley was the worst IMO closely followed by Milburn and Hunt

    Burnham was worst for the patients, and they are more important than you
    Not true he was pretty good overall

    Hundreds of new modern hospitals lowest ever waiting lists all good for patients

    Resulting in the Highest ever patient satisfaction levels.

    Lansley reforms are a conflict of interest for GPs with commissioning and provider roles and costing a fortune with all organisations in the NHS employing marketing departments and tendering teams to win business off each other rather than treating patients.

    Still you know best.
    Hundreds of new modern hospitals? Where are they hidden?

    No wonder the NHS has such problems when the administrators can't count. Good job you left really, after bottling it at the sight of Lansley.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014

    Wonder, was it the tweet or her comment about the tweet that did for Thornberry?

    "Image of Rochester", if Bad Al was still about would have been spun no problem as something positive or at least not particularly negative. Of course he would be lying / covering up and he never did any of that.

    However, tweeting that image and then telling the Daily Mail

    'It was a house covered in British flags. I've never seen anything like it before.

    'It had three huge flags covering the whole house. I thought it was remarkable. I've never seen a house completely covered in flags.'

    When pressed that flying flags was common, she said: 'I was brought up in a council house and I've never seen anything like it.'

    'I thought it was absolutely amazing,' she added.

    Her spin was worse than the tweet...

    What do Baldwin and the bloke from the Mirror that Ed has as his spin doctors do all day? See who can get him to look like more of a tit?

    Plus she had previously tweeted a picture of a house with three St George Flags on it in 2012
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    NHS Plan 1997

    4000 more doctors, nurses and medical students by 2004

    Consultants to commit their first seven years to the NHS

    7000 more beds and 100 new hospital building schemes by 2010

    All patients to see a GP within 48 hours by 2004

    All were exceeded by 2010

    But N4E knows best

    Apart from the fact that your post does not make a lot of sense, do you think 4,000 more doctors and nurses was enough to cover the huge rise in population?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589

    Speedy said:

    I claim the crown for tipster of the week:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Early count tallies indicate the Liberal Democrats might be in seventh place behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.

    How has Clegg survived this long?
    I've been told I'm responsible for keeping Ed as leader.

    Because of this thread I wrote

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/22/explaining-the-ed-miliband-polling-paradox/

    How can the LDs have a better 'disliked' rating than UKIP or the Tories? If that were the case surely they'd not lose all these deposits in humiliating fashion? Or is that because they've stopped being reviled by many, but only because now they are not even considered at all, which is even worse.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,278
    edited November 2014

    Ken was one of the best SOS for Health in my 32 years

    Lansley was the worst IMO closely followed by Milburn and Hunt

    Burnham was worst for the patients, and they are more important than you
    Not true he was pretty good overall

    Hundreds of new modern hospitals lowest ever waiting lists all good for patients

    Resulting in the Highest ever patient satisfaction levels.

    Lansley reforms are a conflict of interest for GPs with commissioning and provider roles and costing a fortune with all organisations in the NHS employing marketing departments and tendering teams to win business off each other rather than treating patients.

    Still you know best.
    I'm not blinded by being able to retire at 54 with a big pension.

    Perhaps you could name the HUNDREDS of new modern hospitals, and while you are at it please detail the cost of any hospitals that were built under the PFI he signed up to.
    I could but cant be arsed.

    You cant get over this early retirement thing can you.

    EDITED
    That is completely out of order.

    Please find one single post I have ever made abusing Asians, that is a disgusting slur and you should be banned for making it.

    And you cannot name hundreds of hospitals because it isn't true and you know it.
    I thought you were the TSE abuser asking him to decide which side he was on

    If it was not you I apologise

    You do know fook all about the NHS though. The 100 new hospital build target thing was exceeded but i am not spending time looking for it as you will not believe it anyway.
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    Fwiw. The Tories in r&s think they have lost by @3k. This was however before the count started.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Tories win Bramhall South and Woodford...
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    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    I claim the crown for tipster of the week:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Early count tallies indicate the Liberal Democrats might be in seventh place behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.

    How has Clegg survived this long?
    I've been told I'm responsible for keeping Ed as leader.

    Because of this thread I wrote

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/22/explaining-the-ed-miliband-polling-paradox/

    How can the LDs have a better 'disliked' rating than UKIP or the Tories? If that were the case surely they'd not lose all these deposits in humiliating fashion? Or is that because they've stopped being reviled by many, but only because now they are not even considered at all, which is even worse.
    I have pondered this, I think it might be partly that, that people dislike Clegg a lot but not the Lib Dems
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Early tallies indicate UKIP in mid 40s. Conservatives mid-to-high 30s. May change as rest of verification finishes.

    Early tallies also indicate the Greens could come fourth tonight, saving their deposit too.
    Relative good night for them if true.

    Early count tallies indicate the Liberal Democrats might be in seventh place behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.
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    Fwiw. The Tories in r&s think they have lost by @3k. This was however before the count started.

    That would definitely be a good result for them, if true.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    AndyJS said:

    Useless fact: the R&S count is taking place in Gillingham which is, funnily enough, in the Gillingham & Rainham constituency.

    Itself likely to be receptive to a bit of UKIP.

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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    Some parts of the city had 6 feet in 24 hours.

    @LouiseSchiavone: Here's what all that snow in Buffalo looks like when you open your front door. http://t.co/F0hT15GjJJ
    Arf - That's awesome. ; )
    Lake Effect snow is amazing - the storm passes over (in this case) Lake Ontario, the warm water increases the moisture content and then the snow falls with huge, wet, and heavy flakes. I once went to Buffalo after they'd had 3 feet of snow. It was amazing.

    One of the most noticeable things is the silence. Snow absorbs noise like nothing else.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,278

    Ken was one of the best SOS for Health in my 32 years

    Lansley was the worst IMO closely followed by Milburn and Hunt

    Burnham was worst for the patients, and they are more important than you
    Not true he was pretty good overall

    Hundreds of new modern hospitals lowest ever waiting lists all good for patients

    Resulting in the Highest ever patient satisfaction levels.

    Lansley reforms are a conflict of interest for GPs with commissioning and provider roles and costing a fortune with all organisations in the NHS employing marketing departments and tendering teams to win business off each other rather than treating patients.

    Still you know best.
    Hundreds of new modern hospitals? Where are they hidden?

    No wonder the NHS has such problems when the administrators can't count. Good job you left really, after bottling it at the sight of Lansley.
    When you find out tell N4E he wants to know as well.

    Alternatively


    I presume you will admit you were wrong if I get round to listing the 100+ new builds at some point when i can be arsed?
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    Lib Dems doing appallingly and Ukip not winning by as big a margin as hoped? All just rumours but it suggests Lib Dems voting tactically for the Tories.

    Don't for God's sake let Mike Smithson see this - it would be enough to make him choke on his breakfast cornflakes.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,589

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    I claim the crown for tipster of the week:

    Britain Elects @britainelects · 2m 2 minutes ago
    Early count tallies indicate the Liberal Democrats might be in seventh place behind the Monster Raving Loony Party.

    How has Clegg survived this long?
    I've been told I'm responsible for keeping Ed as leader.

    Because of this thread I wrote

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/22/explaining-the-ed-miliband-polling-paradox/

    How can the LDs have a better 'disliked' rating than UKIP or the Tories? If that were the case surely they'd not lose all these deposits in humiliating fashion? Or is that because they've stopped being reviled by many, but only because now they are not even considered at all, which is even worse.
    I have pondered this, I think it might be partly that, that people dislike Clegg a lot but not the Lib Dems
    Maybe. I cannot say I know many LDs round my way who have anything good to say about Clegg, so for those outside the party it should be even fewer; I'm much more likely to consider that for all his faults he's been hard done by than they would be to say such a thing.
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    antifrank said:

    Splitting infinitives is fine anyway. Often it is the best word order. Complaining about split infinitives is false pedantry.

    NB I never use them in client letters, because too many people mistakenly think that they're bad English.

    But do you put in subtle pop music references in to your letters like someone who shall remain nameless does.
    Is there something I should know?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    In 1990 the SDP closed shop after they were beaten by the Monster Raving Loonies in a westminster by-election, will the LD's have the decency to do the same tonight?

    Bootle (1990 [a]), co-incidentally Nuttall's patch...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    antifrank said:

    Splitting infinitives is fine anyway. Often it is the best word order. Complaining about split infinitives is false pedantry.

    NB I never use them in client letters, because too many people mistakenly think that they're bad English.

    But do you put in subtle pop music references in to your letters like someone who shall remain nameless does.
    Is there something I should know?
    Please please tell me now.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The count might finish very late:

    Lucy Aitkens ‏@LuckyAitkens 8m8 minutes ago
    Ok peeps / what time is this result coming out? #RochesterStrood #skynews

    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    @LuckyAitkens 3-4am
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Speedy said:

    The count might finish very late:

    Lucy Aitkens ‏@LuckyAitkens 8m8 minutes ago
    Ok peeps / what time is this result coming out? #RochesterStrood #skynews

    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    @LuckyAitkens 3-4am

    *looks smugly on from CA (-8hrs GMT)*
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Has Andrew Neill got a new wig for the occasion?
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    Ken was one of the best SOS for Health in my 32 years

    Lansley was the worst IMO closely followed by Milburn and Hunt

    Burnham was worst for the patients, and they are more important than you
    Not true he was pretty good overall

    Hundreds of new modern hospitals lowest ever waiting lists all good for patients

    Resulting in the Highest ever patient satisfaction levels.

    Lansley reforms are a conflict of interest for GPs with commissioning and provider roles and costing a fortune with all organisations in the NHS employing marketing departments and tendering teams to win business off each other rather than treating patients.

    Still you know best.
    Hundreds of new modern hospitals? Where are they hidden?

    No wonder the NHS has such problems when the administrators can't count. Good job you left really, after bottling it at the sight of Lansley.
    When you find out tell N4E he wants to know as well.

    Alternatively


    I presume you will admit you were wrong if I get round to listing the 100+ new builds at some point when i can be arsed?
    If you post them I will apologise, but make sure you also post how much the total cost is under P
    FI
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    antifrank said:

    Splitting infinitives is fine anyway. Often it is the best word order. Complaining about split infinitives is false pedantry.

    NB I never use them in client letters, because too many people mistakenly think that they're bad English.

    But do you put in subtle pop music references in to your letters like someone who shall remain nameless does.
    Is there something I should know?
    This means nothing to me.
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    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    Thornberry going seems something of an overreaction, but either good to bury the chaos on a terrible night for the Tories, or else nice of them to distract from the terrible night for the Tories.

    They have distracted from Tories. No wonder Ed was reported to be angriest ever. It is incompetence beyond words.
    I would flipping love to see Ed getting angry, I imagine it is like a hungry puppy yapping at its owner. Utterly terrifying! :)

    Total bloody over reaction about the flags though, they must be getting in a tizz at Labour HQ.
    I think Ed getting angry would be like Moss from IT Crowd trying to get angry....


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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2014

    Fwiw. The Tories in r&s think they have lost by @3k. This was however before the count started.

    Haha. Closer than we thought. Or...

    BF saying Con 4.8, or is that a bug?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: Billed as two-horse race between Tories & Ukip, Labour ended up centre stage in crunch by-election....*story re-top* *bangs head on desk*

    @Claire_Phipps: #emilythornberry day 2: newsdesks send photographers to find Islington homes with 3+ England flags their MP has "never seen"
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,993
    Lab beaten into fourth by the greens in Bramhall South and Woodford. Not territory which traditionally favours Labour, to be fair. Probably quite good news for the Lib Dems in Cheadle that the mass-abandonment of their voters to Labour doesn't appear to be happening in this neck of the woods at least. Tories will obviously be pleased to hold the ward.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    The count might finish very late:

    Lucy Aitkens ‏@LuckyAitkens 8m8 minutes ago
    Ok peeps / what time is this result coming out? #RochesterStrood #skynews

    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    @LuckyAitkens 3-4am

    Declaration number, Rochester & Strood / Medway / Rochester & Chatham:

    2010: 497
    2005: 555
    2001: 192
    1997: 506
    1992: 309
    1987: 245
    1983: 564
    1979: 246
    1974 (O): 94
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Labour says turnout in Rochester was 53%.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alan Johnson

    "Emily Thornberry came from a very poor council House Background"

    "In fact, Emily Thornberry’s personal story is a good deal more interesting than her outburst would suggest. She did indeed grow up in a council house, in the absence of her father. But if anyone thought she was just an ordinary working-class girl made good, they were mistaken. Her mother Sallie, alas no longer with us, was a most courageous and distinguished person, and also much-loved by political allies and opponents alike. She was a teacher by profession, and an active and popular Labour councillor who became, despite the privations and difficulties of her life, Mayor of Guildford in Surrey, by no means a Labour town.
    But the family was not fatherless in the sense that it had never had a father. Nor was Sallie Thornberry unmarried. On the contrary, she was married to a distinguished and talented academic lawyer, Cedric Thornberry, who lectured at the London School of Economics, and rose to become Assistant General Secretary of the United Nations. He is still active in the international human rights industry"

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2012/06/the-phoney-outrage-of-emily-thornberry-slime-factories-on-overtime.html
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    Rod Given the past record of some of their MPs, I would imagine a few LDs are not entirely unused to coming under a dominatrix!
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    Has Andrew Neill got a new wig for the occasion?

    No idea but Miranda Green looks better each week
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    Tim_B said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    Some parts of the city had 6 feet in 24 hours.

    @LouiseSchiavone: Here's what all that snow in Buffalo looks like when you open your front door. http://t.co/F0hT15GjJJ
    Arf - That's awesome. ; )
    Lake Effect snow is amazing - the storm passes over (in this case) Lake Ontario, the warm water increases the moisture content and then the snow falls with huge, wet, and heavy flakes. I once went to Buffalo after they'd had 3 feet of snow. It was amazing.

    One of the most noticeable things is the silence. Snow absorbs noise like nothing else.
    I phoned my sister who lives in NYC last week to check how things were, I think they had less than a foot of snow. To say she was not impressed was to put it mildly, 5 ft of snow and I think she'd have hibernated till next spring.

    http://message.snopes.com/photos/natural/graphics/buffalo3.jpg
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Bramhall South & Woodford (Stockport) vote result:
    CON - 2080
    LDEM - 1502
    GRN - 197
    LAB - 132
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    It looks like the Buffalo Bills NY Jets game will be moved to Monday in either Detroit or Toronto. Both are domed stadiums.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stockport Bramhall South

    Con 2080 LD 1502 Green 197 Lab 132

    Small swing from LD to Con since May ( UKIP took 538 votes in May )
    Swing from Con to LD compared to 2011 and 2012

    This ward is in the Cheadle parliamentary constituency and the only Cheadle ward the Conservatives have never lost .
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851

    Has Andrew Neill got a new wig for the occasion?

    No idea but Miranda Green looks better each week
    She's got make-up on tonight. Probably been at a do.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Bramhall South & Woodford (Stockport) result:
    CON - 53.2% (+8.2)
    LDEM - 38.4% (+5.3)
    GRN - 5.0% (+5.0)
    LAB - 3.4% (-5.5)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Main party candidates, Maidstone & The Weald — (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Helen Grant
    Lab: Allen Simpson
    LD: Jasper Gerard
    UKIP: Eddie Powell
    Green: Hannah Patton
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Scott_P said:

    Tim_B said:

    Some parts of the city had 6 feet in 24 hours.

    @LouiseSchiavone: Here's what all that snow in Buffalo looks like when you open your front door. http://t.co/F0hT15GjJJ
    Arf - That's awesome. ; )
    Lake Effect snow is amazing - the storm passes over (in this case) Lake Ontario, the warm water increases the moisture content and then the snow falls with huge, wet, and heavy flakes. I once went to Buffalo after they'd had 3 feet of snow. It was amazing.

    One of the most noticeable things is the silence. Snow absorbs noise like nothing else.
    I phoned my sister who lives in NYC last week to check how things were, I think they had less than a foot of snow. To say she was not impressed was to put it mildly, 5 ft of snow and I think she'd have hibernated till next spring.

    http://message.snopes.com/photos/natural/graphics/buffalo3.jpg
    Here in Atlanta a few years back we had 4 inches of snow. The place shut down for a week. I was trapped in my home for 4 days. The snow removal plan here is the sun. There was no sun for 4 days.
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    Hello... tory price come in from 150 to 55 in last few mins
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Actually those figures about UKIP being 3-4000 votes ahead were just after the polls closed and before the count started:

    KentOnline @Kent_Online · 2h 2 hours ago
    Indications are Mark Reckless will have a majority of between 3 and 4,000. http://bit.ly/1xHvgX9

    So probably those early figures could be postal votes.
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    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    The count might finish very late:

    Lucy Aitkens ‏@LuckyAitkens 8m8 minutes ago
    Ok peeps / what time is this result coming out? #RochesterStrood #skynews

    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    @LuckyAitkens 3-4am

    Declaration number, Rochester & Strood / Medway / Rochester & Chatham:

    2010: 497
    2005: 555
    2001: 192
    1997: 506
    1992: 309
    1987: 245
    1983: 564
    1979: 246
    1974 (O): 94
    Everything Counts :)
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    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.
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    This looks like it will be 11 lost deposits for the LibDems out of 19 Westminster by-elections that they contested this Parliament.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    The precedent set in 1990 was that any party beaten by the Monster Raving Loonies should dissolve.
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    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Lib Dems voted tactically to stop Repatriation Reckless
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Bad for UKIP
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014

    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Lib Dems voted tactically to stop Repatriation Reckless
    All one voter.
    Which leads to a question, did the LD candidate vote for himself?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited November 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Rod Given the past record of some of their MPs, I would imagine a few LDs are not entirely unused to coming under a dominatrix!

    Well, Oaten saved his deposit [for another occasion, presumably]...
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    Allegra BBC tweet,says ukip may win by just 3pct
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2014
    Sky News has reported that the Rochester count hasn't even started yet, they are still collecting boxes.
    Not even postal votes counted.

    What I just heard from Adam Boulton's mouth is unbelievable.
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    Allegra BBC tweet,says ukip may win by just 3pct

    Bugger.

    If I had campaigned earlier Reckless would have definitely lost.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mole Valley, main party candidates — (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Paul Beresford
    Lab: Len Amos
    LD: Paul Kennedy
    UKIP: Stephen Musgrove
    Greens: Jacquetta Fewster
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301

    Allegra BBC tweet,says ukip may win by just 3pct

    I know it isn't going to happen, but can you imagine a Tory win.... I need the smelling salts just thinking about it!
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    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Lib Dems voted tactically to stop Repatriation Reckless
    - "I can see you, TSE"

    - "Reckless!"

    - "Can you see me? Oh, now be honest, TSE, warrior to warrior. You do prefer it this way, don't you, as it was meant to be? No peace in our time. Once more unto the breach, dear friends."
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    Speedy said:

    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Lib Dems voted tactically to stop Repatriation Reckless
    All one voter.
    Which leads to a question, did the LD candidate vote for himself?
    There were nearly 8,000 of them last time
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    Sky News has reported that the Rochester count hasn't even started yet, they are still collecting boxes.
    Not even postal votes counted.

    In that case I'm off to bed - play nice folks. ; )
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    Allegra BBC tweet,says ukip may win by just 3pct

    I know it isn't going to happen, but can you imagine a Tory win.... I need the smelling salts just thinking about it!
    They really haven't started even counting yet, I see them live on Sky News all siting and doing nothing.
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    Indeed, you owe me 10000 pounds if it's as close as that?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,270
    Rod Indeed, best leave it there I think, looks like a long night but a UKIP victory if perhaps slightly closer than some polls, doubt will stay up but looks the likely result
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Why are people throwing around numbers when I clearly see on TV and Sky News has said too, that the count hasn't even started?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Allegra BBC tweet,says ukip may win by just 3pct

    I know it isn't going to happen, but can you imagine a Tory win.... I need the smelling salts just thinking about it!
    They really haven't started even counting yet, I see them live on Sky News all siting and doing nothing.
    Yeah, I'm not expecting a win, just fantasising!
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    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301

    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
    Yep, but it wasn't always (used to be some glamorous lady, if I recall correctly)!
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    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    Yup.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,993

    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Lib Dems voted tactically to stop Repatriation Reckless
    I wonder if it might actually be simpler than that? I think there are significant numbers going straight from LD to UKIP. This may seem daft when you look at the parts of the political spectrum that the respective parties occupy, but many voters don't really do that. The LDs used to get a lot of 'plague on all your houses' votes, often from people whose political views, if examined, probably didn't actually tally that well with those of the LDs. I remember around 20 years or so ago a vox pop on the radio with a woman who said she'd voted LD because they were the only party who stood up to Europe. In this context, to see voters moving from LD to UKIP shouldn't be surprising.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,852
    edited November 2014
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
    Yep, but it wasn't always (used to be some glamorous lady, if I recall correctly)!
    I'm off to bed. But next time I'll explain why I like the Screaming Eagles.

    Always been a fan of them, from Normandy, Bastogne and Little Rock
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm sticking to my prediction of UKIP winning by more than 5,000 votes.
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    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    Allegra BBC tweet,says ukip may win by just 3pct

    I know it isn't going to happen, but can you imagine a Tory win.... I need the smelling salts just thinking about it!
    They really haven't started even counting yet, I see them live on Sky News all siting and doing nothing.
    Yeah, I'm not expecting a win, just fantasising!
    Tell me about it
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,278

    Ken was one of the best SOS for Health in my 32 years

    Lansley was the worst IMO closely followed by Milburn and Hunt

    Burnham was worst for the patients, and they are more important than you
    Not true he was pretty good overall

    Hundreds of new modern hospitals lowest ever waiting lists all good for patients

    Resulting in the Highest ever patient satisfaction levels.

    Lansley reforms are a conflict of interest for GPs with commissioning and provider roles and costing a fortune with all organisations in the NHS employing marketing departments and tendering teams to win business off each other rather than treating patients.

    Still you know best.
    Hundreds of new modern hospitals? Where are they hidden?

    No wonder the NHS has such problems when the administrators can't count. Good job you left really, after bottling it at the sight of Lansley.
    When you find out tell N4E he wants to know as well.

    Alternatively


    I presume you will admit you were wrong if I get round to listing the 100+ new builds at some point when i can be arsed?
    If you post them I will apologise, but make sure you also post how much the total cost is under P
    FI
    Massive cost £60bn total bill for £11bn capital cost of 103 new PFI hospitals 1997-2010

    About 30 non PFI Hospitals in the same period by the look of it.

    So 133 new hospitals (cant find a list yet)

    If you are interested this gives an independent review of 1997-2010 in the NHS

    http://www.kingsfund.org.uk/sites/files/kf/High-Performing-NHS-progress-review-1997-2010-Ruth-Thorlby-Jo-Maybin-Kings-Fund-April-2010.pdf

    Very positive IMO
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,301

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
    Yep, but it wasn't always (used to be some glamorous lady, if I recall correctly)!
    I'm off to bed. But next time I'll explain why I like the Screaming Eagles.

    Always been a fan of them, from Normandy, Bastogne and Little Rock
    How could you sleep on a night like this??

    In all seriousness, bet you're knackered after today!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders
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    Cookie said:

    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Lib Dems voted tactically to stop Repatriation Reckless
    I wonder if it might actually be simpler than that? I think there are significant numbers going straight from LD to UKIP. This may seem daft when you look at the parts of the political spectrum that the respective parties occupy, but many voters don't really do that. The LDs used to get a lot of 'plague on all your houses' votes, often from people whose political views, if examined, probably didn't actually tally that well with those of the LDs. I remember around 20 years or so ago a vox pop on the radio with a woman who said she'd voted LD because they were the only party who stood up to Europe. In this context, to see voters moving from LD to UKIP shouldn't be surprising.
    I'm hoping Lord Ashcroft does a poll on why people voted the way they did in Rochester
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,278
    Off to bed now

    Off to DD tomorrow to meet fellow PBers
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,891
    edited November 2014
    Speedy said:

    Actually those figures about UKIP being 3-4000 votes ahead were just after the polls closed and before the count started:

    KentOnline @Kent_Online · 2h 2 hours ago
    Indications are Mark Reckless will have a majority of between 3 and 4,000. http://bit.ly/1xHvgX9

    So probably those early figures could be postal votes.

    If correct and based on a ~50% turnout, this suggests the following result:

    UKIP ............. 18000 (45%)
    Con .............. 14000 (35%)
    Lab ................ 4000 (10%)
    Greens ........... 2000 (5%)
    Others ........... 2000 (5%)

    Total .............40000 (100%)

    There, you can all go off to bed now ....... Goodnight all!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    I'm sticking to my prediction of UKIP winning by more than 5,000 votes.

    Do you think that Rochester will be in form and declare around lunchtime?
    I'm watching Sky News live from Rochester and the council workers are not counting any votes for at least the half an hour that i'm watching.
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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
    Yep, but it wasn't always (used to be some glamorous lady, if I recall correctly)!
    I'm off to bed. But next time I'll explain why I like the Screaming Eagles.

    Always been a fan of them, from Normandy, Bastogne and Little Rock
    How could you sleep on a night like this??

    In all seriousness, bet you're knackered after today!
    If it wasn't for the PB meet tomorrow (technically today) I'd be up, all night long.

    (Did you spot the subtle pop music reference?)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    Why are people throwing around numbers when I clearly see on TV and Sky News has said too, that the count hasn't even started?

    Because they're impatient idiots.

    In 2010 Sky News called Edinburgh South for the LDs at this stage of the count, and Labour went on to hold the seat.
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    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
    Yep, but it wasn't always (used to be some glamorous lady, if I recall correctly)!
    I'm off to bed. But next time I'll explain why I like the Screaming Eagles.

    Always been a fan of them, from Normandy, Bastogne and Little Rock
    I wouldn't go up in an army helicopter, let alone use one of their parachutes.

    Anyone jumping out of a plane unless it's on fire needs their head examining :-)
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    Speedy said:

    Actually those figures about UKIP being 3-4000 votes ahead were just after the polls closed and before the count started:

    KentOnline @Kent_Online · 2h 2 hours ago
    Indications are Mark Reckless will have a majority of between 3 and 4,000. http://bit.ly/1xHvgX9

    So probably those early figures could be postal votes.

    If correct and based on a 50% turnout, this suggests the following result:

    UKIP ............. 18000 (45%)
    Con .............. 14000 (35%)
    Lab ................ 4000 (10%)
    Greens ........... 2000 (5%)
    Others ........... 2000 (5%)

    Total ............40000 (100%)

    There, you can all go off to bed now ....... Goodnight all!
    Goodnite PfP.

    Goodnite everybody.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,278

    Speedy said:

    Actually those figures about UKIP being 3-4000 votes ahead were just after the polls closed and before the count started:

    KentOnline @Kent_Online · 2h 2 hours ago
    Indications are Mark Reckless will have a majority of between 3 and 4,000. http://bit.ly/1xHvgX9

    So probably those early figures could be postal votes.

    If correct and based on a ~50% turnout, this suggests the following result:

    UKIP ............. 18000 (45%)
    Con .............. 14000 (35%)
    Lab ................ 4000 (10%)
    Greens ........... 2000 (5%)
    Others ........... 2000 (5%)

    Total .............40000 (100%)

    There, you can all go off to bed now ....... Goodnight all!
    Thanks PTP
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    Cookie said:

    If the LibDems score < 1% of the vote, would Clegg resign? Should he resign?
    It will be interesting to hear what OGH has to say on the subject.

    Lib Dems voted tactically to stop Repatriation Reckless
    I wonder if it might actually be simpler than that? I think there are significant numbers going straight from LD to UKIP. This may seem daft when you look at the parts of the political spectrum that the respective parties occupy, but many voters don't really do that. The LDs used to get a lot of 'plague on all your houses' votes, often from people whose political views, if examined, probably didn't actually tally that well with those of the LDs. I remember around 20 years or so ago a vox pop on the radio with a woman who said she'd voted LD because they were the only party who stood up to Europe. In this context, to see voters moving from LD to UKIP shouldn't be surprising.
    It's even more simple than that - there are a very large number of voters who don't want to risk taking the responsibility of voting for the government.
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    Swiss_Bob said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    @TSE - Is your name based on the nickname of the 101st, or is it something else? Always wondered.

    His avatar is their emblem!
    Yep, but it wasn't always (used to be some glamorous lady, if I recall correctly)!
    I'm off to bed. But next time I'll explain why I like the Screaming Eagles.

    Always been a fan of them, from Normandy, Bastogne and Little Rock
    I wouldn't go up in an army helicopter, let alone use one of their parachutes.

    Anyone jumping out of a plane unless it's on fire needs their head examining :-)
    They are an Air Assault Division these days.

    So no jumping out of planes.

    Mostly rappelling or walking off helicopters if you're a Screaming Eagle. Or flying attack helicopters.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    AndyJS said:

    Main party candidates, Oxford West & Abingdon - (Green candidate just selected):

    Con: Nicola Blackwood
    Lab: Sally Copley
    LD: Layla Moran
    UKIP: Alan Harris
    Greens: Larry Sanders

    From what I have heard, the LDs no longer see this as a winnable seat. Certainly their candidate isn't making much impact so far.
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    Speedy said:

    Actually those figures about UKIP being 3-4000 votes ahead were just after the polls closed and before the count started:

    KentOnline @Kent_Online · 2h 2 hours ago
    Indications are Mark Reckless will have a majority of between 3 and 4,000. http://bit.ly/1xHvgX9

    So probably those early figures could be postal votes.

    If correct and based on a ~50% turnout, this suggests the following result:

    UKIP ............. 18000 (45%)
    Con .............. 14000 (35%)
    Lab ................ 4000 (10%)
    Greens ........... 2000 (5%)
    Others ........... 2000 (5%)

    Total .............40000 (100%)

    There, you can all go off to bed now ....... Goodnight all!
    Thanks PTP
    That's the usual £1 you owe the PB.com social fund for confusing me with another poster.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,851
    Medway Council have decked the hall in Gillingham with a million banners that advertise themselves, Gillingham and their part of Kent, but they look like idiots if they're going to take half a day to count one by-election which had a 50% turnout.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm sticking to my prediction of UKIP winning by more than 5,000 votes.

    Do you think that Rochester will be in form and declare around lunchtime?
    I'm watching Sky News live from Rochester and the council workers are not counting any votes for at least the half an hour that i'm watching.
    My guess is 3:45am, just based on previous similar by-elections.
This discussion has been closed.