What do you have Con and Lab seats in for? I will have a go at working it out
Well your question is part of what I'm trying to work out. At the moment I can envisage both finishing with between 280 and 300 seats, but in an uncertain order (both are so fevered right now that it seems to be a race to see which party can have a collective nervous breakdown first).
Hmmm I might be clueless when it comes to working this out!
Is it comparable to the price of a tie in a one day Cricket match when the Batting side has got 290 , and the chasers are EVEN money?
(Assuming the current prices for to win most seats are EVEN money)
Since at least the end of WW2 successive governments have tried all sorts of schemes to keep the once great Northern cities going and prosperous. It would seem that such efforts have only been partially successful, at best.
Chris Michaels @cmichaels97 2m2 minutes ago .@rosschawkins BBC is supposed to be impartial. You have used four tweets attacking Ed Miliband. Media trying to help Cameron win election.
In fairness, it's not listed on oddschecker and anyone who is confident that they've found every bet that Ladbrokes has available on their Hampton Court Maze of a website is a better man than me.
I'm trying to work out how to number crunch the possibility that Labour and the Conservatives win the same number of seats. I'm pretty sure that 50/1 are poor odds, but it's an interesting one to try to price.
A Monte Carlo simulation would be the simplest way - but in essence you're looking at a tie around the 285-290 mark, which is close to the midpoint of expectations for both parties at present. You need 'others' to be even (a 50% chance) and then to land on the exact number required.
Given the 25 seat band of 275-300 for the Tories is currently 5/2 fav, any specific number around the middle of that is a bit less than 100/1. So maybe 150/1 would be fair odds at present?
Chris Michaels @cmichaels97 2m2 minutes ago .@rosschawkins BBC is supposed to be impartial. You have used four tweets attacking Ed Miliband. Media trying to help Cameron win election.
They'll be going with this because someone pretty important in the party has been talking to them off the record.
@Socrates -further to your poppy plan -I actually think your idea of bringing the poppies to Edinburgh Castle has real legs. I might suggest it to some people up here and see if anyone agrees.
Someone resident in Scotland thinks that private property is owned by the Edinborough Parish-Council. When do you finish sixth-form...?
There's no mechanism under the rules to dump Miliband. He would have to go voluntarily, in which case Hattie Hopeless automatically gets the gig (at least pro tem). The NEC would then decide whether to hold an election or not. Given the last one took four months to complete, and the bloodletting it would involve, it looks an unlikely option...
OK, if you don't like bad taste, look away now ...
Three pregnant women at an ante-natal clinic are sitting together and knitting.
The first one stops knitting and leans over to take a tablet from a bag next to her. “What’s that?” the others ask.
“It’s an iron tablet,” she says. “Stops the baby being born with anaemia.”
The second one stops knitting and leans over to take a tablet from a bag next to her. “What’s that?” the others ask.
“It’s folic acid,” she says. “Helps prevent NTDs in the baby.”
The third one stops knitting and leans over to take a tablet from a bag next to her. “What’s that?” the others ask.
“Thalidomide,” she says. “I could never do sleeves.”
Almost as bad as the site moderators filth.. is poking fun at the disabled and the murdered really that funny?
This joke carries 5 years hard labour.
Nigel Farage walked into a bar...ouch.
Shouldn't it be -
Nigel Farage walked into a bar, and promptly walked out because the bar staff were Estonian, and it only sold foreign lager.
Or David Cameron walked into a bar and trashed it, because he was in the Bullingdon and he knew his daddy would pay for the damage. This is easy, isn't it?
Ed Miliband walked into a bar ... Nah, that would never happen.
So supposing they successful knife Ed while he is away as his event
But they won't. That's the joy of it.
Everyone knows Ed is the problem.
Nobody will act.
Perfect.
It wasn't dissimilar about six years ago, ScottP.
We will never know of course. but I think Labour would have won the 2010 GE if it had ditched Brown and replaced him with one of the perfectly plausible options available at the time. (EdM was not one of these.)
There are no such options now, so Ed is perfectly safe.
The plotting against EdM would have more credence if the polls were showing the Tories on 40% to Labour's 32-33%.
But the Tories are on 30%, and UKIP's surge will hand Labour seats from the Tories by the bucketload. As it stands, Labour are heading back into office.
On current polls, it's Cameron who has the problem.
The plotting against EdM would have more credence if the polls were showing the Tories on 40% to Labour's 32-33%.
But the Tories are on 30%, and UKIP's surge will hand Labour seats from the Tories by the bucketload. As it stands, Labour are heading back into office.
On current polls, it's Cameron who has the problem.
Don't let the polls blind you to the actual politics going on...
There's no mechanism under the rules to dump Miliband. He would have to go voluntarily, in which case Hattie Hopeless automatically gets the gig (at least pro tem). The NEC would then decide whether to hold an election or not. Given the last one took four months to complete, and the bloodletting it would involve, it looks an unlikely option...
And don't let process [which is, true, usually very important in politics] trump everything... in extremis coronations can be stitched up behind the scenes.
In fairness, it's not listed on oddschecker and anyone who is confident that they've found every bet that Ladbrokes has available on their Hampton Court Maze of a website is a better man than me.
I'm trying to work out how to number crunch the possibility that Labour and the Conservatives win the same number of seats. I'm pretty sure that 50/1 are poor odds, but it's an interesting one to try to price.
A Monte Carlo simulation would be the simplest way - but in essence you're looking at a tie around the 285-290 mark, which is close to the midpoint of expectations for both parties at present. You need 'others' to be even (a 50% chance) and then to land on the exact number required.
Given the 25 seat band of 275-300 for the Tories is currently 5/2 fav, any specific number around the middle of that is a bit less than 100/1. So maybe 150/1 would be fair odds at present?
100/1 nearer the time might be of interest.
Thanks for that informed analysis, TP.
I've used a ten pound free bet for this little spin on the roulette wheel.
I was all for Ed being ousted a few weeks ago, but I'm now having second thoughts about what it will actually achieve. Sure, someone personable and "in touch" like Alan Johnson might add a few % to the Labour score, which might even be enough for them to scrape a win with the Tories STILL at their Omnishambles trough, but it's not going to solve any of their fundamental problems -- namely, what is actually the point of Labour, and what will a Labour government do that's substantially different to a Tory government.
Even the most charismatic leader in the world would probably be seen as totally boring and uninteresting if they'd gone out of their way to not be "controversial" like Ed with his lack of policies over the past 4 years.
In fairness, it's not listed on oddschecker and anyone who is confident that they've found every bet that Ladbrokes has available on their Hampton Court Maze of a website is a better man than me.
I'm trying to work out how to number crunch the possibility that Labour and the Conservatives win the same number of seats. I'm pretty sure that 50/1 are poor odds, but it's an interesting one to try to price.
A Monte Carlo simulation would be the simplest way - but in essence you're looking at a tie around the 285-290 mark, which is close to the midpoint of expectations for both parties at present. You need 'others' to be even (a 50% chance) and then to land on the exact number required.
Given the 25 seat band of 275-300 for the Tories is currently 5/2 fav, any specific number around the middle of that is a bit less than 100/1. So maybe 150/1 would be fair odds at present?
100/1 nearer the time might be of interest.
Thanks for that informed analysis, TP.
I've used a ten pound free bet for this little spin on the roulette wheel.
Well, punting free bets at big odds is sound enough...
It's the needing others to be even that's a killer for this bet, as you simply can't get a tie without it. Worth checking on their Speaker specification [though arguably he should count as half-Labour, half-Tory anyway...]
The problem is that Ed Miliband isn't clever. His political views are typical centre-left Guardianista boiler plate. Has he a single original view that deviates from social democratic orthodoxy?
It fully proves the London/Westminster centric bubble theory. All his media/journalist/political friends and social group will be exactly the same, so he may genuinely think he reflects the centre-ground of public opinion.
@Socrates -further to your poppy plan -I actually think your idea of bringing the poppies to Edinburgh Castle has real legs. I might suggest it to some people up here and see if anyone agrees.
Someone resident in Scotland thinks that private property is owned by the Edinborough Parish-Council. When do you finish sixth-form...?
While the CEC (Crown Estate Commissioners) had had no responsibility for the Crown properties transferred in 1999, the CEC was responsible at the time of devolution for the management of two closely associated ancient possessions of the Crown in Scotland. One of these was 5 ha. in West Princes Street Gardens, including much of the slopes around Edinburgh Castle. The ownership of this area was conveyed in 2013 by the CEC to Edinburgh City Council, who already managed the area as part of Princes Street Gardens.
Comments
Is it comparable to the price of a tie in a one day Cricket match when the Batting side has got 290 , and the chasers are EVEN money?
(Assuming the current prices for to win most seats are EVEN money)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29929438
Streisand effect writ large.
@MSmithsonPB: William Hill make it a 6/1 shot that Ed Miliband will go before GE15
http://t.co/orbZ1dFWfn
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11211100/North-of-England-declines-to-population-share-last-seen-in-1820s.html
Since at least the end of WW2 successive governments have tried all sorts of schemes to keep the once great Northern cities going and prosperous. It would seem that such efforts have only been partially successful, at best.
Chris Michaels @cmichaels97 2m2 minutes ago
.@rosschawkins BBC is supposed to be impartial. You have used four tweets attacking Ed Miliband. Media trying to help Cameron win election.
What was your other post about?
Given the 25 seat band of 275-300 for the Tories is currently 5/2 fav, any specific number around the middle of that is a bit less than 100/1. So maybe 150/1 would be fair odds at present?
100/1 nearer the time might be of interest.
That's why she wants Ed to personally meet every voter to bypass the "media". She should have a word with the CyberNats...
My guess is Andy Burnham.
"The Prime Minister has entered the debate on whether the Tower of London's field of ceramic poppies should remain beyond Armistice Day."
Market needed on whether poppies or ed remain in situ longer.
We will never know of course. but I think Labour would have won the 2010 GE if it had ditched Brown and replaced him with one of the perfectly plausible options available at the time. (EdM was not one of these.)
There are no such options now, so Ed is perfectly safe.
Not even Lansley had the patients drinking water from flower vases on his watch.
But the Tories are on 30%, and UKIP's surge will hand Labour seats from the Tories by the bucketload. As it stands, Labour are heading back into office.
On current polls, it's Cameron who has the problem.
Sterling's fall appears to match that of Brent-Crude. Yet West-Texan blend is plummeting!
Riddle-me-this: Has an 'Uhmahrican' intermediary lost the plot...?
EtA. Oops: Downfall moment...!
I've used a ten pound free bet for this little spin on the roulette wheel.
Even the most charismatic leader in the world would probably be seen as totally boring and uninteresting if they'd gone out of their way to not be "controversial" like Ed with his lack of policies over the past 4 years.
It's the needing others to be even that's a killer for this bet, as you simply can't get a tie without it. Worth checking on their Speaker specification [though arguably he should count as half-Labour, half-Tory anyway...]
It fully proves the London/Westminster centric bubble theory. All his media/journalist/political friends and social group will be exactly the same, so he may genuinely think he reflects the centre-ground of public opinion.