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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB is still ahead in England which the Tories won at GE10 with a margin of 11.4 percent
Labour might have collapsed in Scotland but the gainers are not the Tories but the SNP – which means this development does not in any way help CON with their overall majority ambition.
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LAB 35.5% England vote: 286 MPs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Right after I modified my spreadsheet to include them
Part-ELBOW for the four polls so far this week (Populus, Ashcroft and two YouGovs), total sample 4,505:
Lab 33.9% (+1.0)
Con 32.3% (+0.2)
UKIP 14.8% (-1.5)
LD 8.3% (+0.8)
Lab lead 1.5% (+0.8)
I remember suggesting that on this site a number of years ago, and being ridiculed by the Tory herd for imagining that Scotland could have a different political system
OGH should simply ask the editors of the London-based media why they continue to insist on such archaic practices.
Scottish & Welsh VI polls are normally funded in Scotland & Wales. That London can't tell its UK arse from its English elbow may be a major reason why GB polling is even more pointless now that it was some years back.
BTW, I edit wiki under the Sunil060902 moniker, it wasn't me wot removed the Greens!
Whilst I recognise we have to churn out threads, this is all so speculative at the moment. Until we start to get serious about the General Election next February there's little benefit from over-analysing at the moment. What would be helpful are some more polls, preferably not just by Lord Ashcroft who consistently over-states Labour.
The Tory equivalent is 8 Welsh, 1 Scottish, and 294 English seats.
So the Tories have a 100 seat lead over Labour in England. That might increase if the Tories take more Lib Dem English seats that Labour do, say 12:8 in the Tories favour. That'd give 306 Tory English seats, and 198 Labour English seats.
Labour would need to be doing pretty well to take 54+ seats (net) off the Tories in England. And that'd be to be *just* ahead. No-one thinks the Tories are going to sink to sub-200 seats, like GE2005. Many of the seats Labour won then are simply no longer in contention for them.
Personally, the best I can Labour doing is about 30 seat gains off the Tories in England, so I'd expect the Tories to be ahead on both seats, and votes.
In 2005 lots of Labour supporters voted Lib Dem tactically to keep the Tories out. That resulted in an apparent efficiency in the Labour vote that will not be repeated. They will get a lot more votes in the south west, for example, but no seats. Conversely the substantial numbers of votes the Tories get there will deliver more seats as the Lib Dems collapse.
By 2010 much of the apparently greater efficiency of the Labour vote was in fact down to Scotland where 42% of the vote produced 72% of the seats. I have real doubts this is going to be repeated. In England things were much more in line with vote share and I expect them to be even more so in 2015.
Just because she's the only they've heard of they think she's amazingly popular, etc.
Alongside the usual Labour vs Tory battle for power we have the LD/UKIP/SNP wild cards which completely disrupt "normal" voting patterns in seats where they are (or in the case of the LibDems were) contenders.
I hope Lord A has deep pockets - we are going to need many constituency specific polls....
They did the same the last time the Republicans did well but did much less well when the Dems did well in 2006. Basically Republicans, like certain football supporters, are much more likely to switch on when their team is winning and motivated. I wonder if the viewing figures of the respective outlets should be watched as closely as the polls in the lead up to 2016.
I also think this demonstrates how we seriously overrate "impartiality" and "balance" in this country in our media. Partisan, opinionated viewing is good for participation and interest.
I think Labour's performance is increasingly dependent on London and they are at risk of piling up ever bigger majorities there with relatively few additional seats reducing the efficiency of their vote.
The BBC's Peston has estimated the difference between the Parties in economic policy. Labour propose to cut the current deficit by £10bn by 2020 (or thereabouts), the Tories by £40bn. For Labour's hard-core that's £10bn too much (unless it's all tax increases on the rich), for Kippers and Tory activists £40bn is still too little., since they no longer want the State to provide anything at all except national security. Neither agenda is doable. (The only way to restore international competitiveness is to reduce our consumption of residential land, particularly within 50 miles of London, by a factor of - what? - 20? 200? Not doable, although making it a criminal offence for pensioners to live in that area would be a start!)
By 2020 we shall be choosing between democracy and currency collapse.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1vWnNWIEAAO3cv.jpg
The latest Lord Ashcroft poll has a sample of 444 in England only that comes out with a Tory lead of 1% (Table 3). If this was actually weighted to England rather being a sub-sample of GB then we can assume a larger Tory lead (and in last week's Lord Ashcroft poll it was a 3% Tory lead in England)
And only if we assume no movement back from Ukip to Conservatives (which all recent polling suggests will happen to a certain extent) or from Labour to Lib Dem do we come up with any other outcome at GE2015 than a Tory lead in England or circa 5% at least.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ANP-141103-Full-tables.pdf
The Tories have recognised the scale of the task but then try to cheer their supporters up by talking about unachievable tax cuts. Not going to happen.
LOL. An excellent one from Matt.
Who could possibly not want the Greens higher poll ratings seen by other wikipedia users?
And I object to your use of "hyperbolic" and "obscure" - I should have thought that quantifying the difference in policy between the Parties was doing anything but obscure it. As to how much of a reduction is "necessary", you have only your blind partisanship to tell you that it's £40bn, rather than £10bn or even £100bn.
Will marginal Labour wannabe MPs want him in their marginal?
http://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2014/11/the-discomforts-of-douglas-carswell.html
All Fox shows is that partisan people will tune in to hear their views confirmed.
Hmmh, might have been a conspiracy.
What's Norman Baker up to at the moment?
Similar, but not quite the same thing.
- temporary swing of the pendulum, exacerbated by quality of Labour leadership;
- secular change: rejection of social democratic "1945" settlement" and class-based politics to be replaced by "identity" politics, i.e. race/culture.
"Mark - you're not really expecting us to believe that Carswell agonised for months over making the decision to defect, without realising that he would find himself in a conflicted position once he had done so?
No, I think this is another attempt to portray Carswell in a favourable (blue) light, as the principled but disaffected hero, to provide stark comparison with your real, un-named target, which is of course Mark Reckless.
Reckless who can't have agonised for months, since he was promising to toe the party line the day before he announced his defection. The Reckless who will create a far bigger crisis for the Tory party if he wins the Rochester byelection. And presumably the Reckless who won't feel as conflicted about being a senior officer in the UKIP regime, than Carswell does. "
This comment nails it.
One factor that the Ashcroft marginal polls are useful is that in many of the seats, voters didn't think of them as marginal last time. So you will tend to get MORE tactical voting there in 2015, and LESS in seats that were thought of as marginal in 2010 but are now seen as pretty safe. I think that's the reason why Labour is consistently doing slightly better in the current marginals than nationally - the politically-motivated Red Liberals are responding to the changes, while the UKIP assault is more uniform as nobody really knows with any confidence where they're going to score.
Voters are in my experience quite clued up about whether their seat is currently marginal (partly because of all the bar charts in leaflets), but like all of us rather stumped to predict what will become marginal.
A terrible reason for the bet even if they were...
But it seems many weren't/aren't
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11211995/Tories-resort-to-name-and-shame-as-100-MPs-refuse-to-fight-Ukip.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/29915542
You mean she doesn't believe Ed is fantastic?
Ashcroft points out that Conservatives cannot afford to lose more than 21 seats to Labour if they are to remain the largest party after the election and therefore probably in lead position to conduct coalition negotiations with other parties.
But Ashcroft’s polling in the marginals – the biggest constituency level polling exercise ever undertaken in the UK – shows the Tories behind in 38 seats. Ashcroft has not polled in every Tory-held marginal, so the scale of its losses is likely to be larger.
Appalling reporting. Leads the reader to draw a completely erroneous conclusion (by ignoring the possibility of any Tory wins and/or what is happening in Scotland)
A reminder that all is not well in Germany:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11210729/Former-Communists-from-East-Germany-set-to-return-to-power.html?utm_content=buffer667e7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Apparently many Ukip voters are just Tories on holiday too
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Detailed_poll_results
Ashcroft's marginals have Labour piling up big swings in Enfield N, Brent C, Brentford etc, yet the overall London picture from an aggregate of subsamples is a London wide swing that is only around 1.5%.
That implies that Labour are losing ground in some other places, while the Tories are piling up votes in some. The question is "where?"
The area with the biggest swing to Labour is the South - yet the Tories are still miles clear and UKIP are getting close to the Labour vote share.
I suspect that @DavidL is spot on with his view that Labour's relative advantage will be a lot smaller in 2015 than it was in 2005
It appears that burning Bush, Brown, Thatcher, Lawson, Putin, Saddam, Putin (last night), Blair, Brezhenev is OK, but smoking out Salmond is beyond satire. Will a new article 58 be prepared for a new Scottish criminal code?
Burning effigies is better than burning real people, 17 Protestants were burnt in Queen Mary's reign in Lewes, as a warning not to deviate from the one true faith. The outraged on Twitter should reflect on Wellington's words publish and be damned.
As ane fule kno Lewes has a LD MP, unless Norman Baker has a secret desire to change sides.
"It's a typical Tory attitude to Scotland, whether north or south of the border."
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/298516-alex-salmond-effigy-to-be-burned-at-lewes-bonfire-celebrations/
Humourless thin skinned victim hood would be nearer the mark.....especially since it had nowt to do with 'The Tory-controlled' council......
An effigy of David Cameron holding a "puppet Nick Clegg" was burned in Lewes in 2010.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29921797
No. Neither do I.......
As with all parties on the fringes, there's a choice between stamping on them or drawing them into the democratic process, which means that one has to accept that they'll sometimes win something. In general the latter is best unless they actually do or say something illegal which you can prosecute.
Applies on the right too - I've never been in favour of banning the far right from standing at elections or, as in the last Euro elections but one, actually winning seats. Once elected, the parties find they have to either moderate their policies to meet reality (as e.g. the Sweden Democrats are trying to do) or lose popularity by pushing through policies against the odds, as the Greens (though perhaps not Caroline) apparently have in Brighton.
I found this whilst scanning t'Telegraph Scottish section:
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-people-of-east-sussex-use-fireworks.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+ScotGoesPop+(SCOT+goes+POP!)
Are all Jockanese wannabe clowns...?
A letter from a supporter explains his views.
And now - that's me done for another day. See you all to-morrow, God willing.
The demographic differences are horrendous for Republicans, but they need to lose several elections in a row to wake up to that. The problem is that their advantages via gerrymandering, efficient spread of voting and Democrats not bothering outside of presidential years means that the GOP keep winning huge Midterm victories. Thus they always get stuck in a "one more push" mindset. It's worth bearing in mind that last night voters passed measures to legalise marijuana, increase the minimum wage and rejected anti-abortion amendments in a whole bunch of red, purple and blue states.
"There’s no reason to think that the VOTES:SEATS ratio in England is going to be more equitable next May than it was ten years ago. In fact it could be worse for the Tories"
Why wouldn't it be better for the Tories? There is now Ukip taking Tory votes so surely the party's national votes will be more evenly spread?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/german-elections-blog-2013/2013/sep/16/german-green-jurgen-trittin-regret-paedophilia-pamphlet
http://www.dw.de/pedophilia-scandal-entangles-german-greens/a-16836153
Perhaps with Labour and Tories reversed.
I can't see the Tories getting much above 34%. Likewise Labour won't get less than 32%.
The dreadful FPTP will again be discredited.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29924710
Someone will probably point out that the majority of the cost is tax.
They're celebrating the defeat of the gunpowder plot which was anti-Scottish. "Hark, hark, the dogs do bark, the beggars are coming to town etc."
On the same evening, you had Russell Brand parading around with the Guy Fawkes crowd. Now, he'd make a good Guy for next years fire.
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http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9361742/ukips-patrick-oflynn-on-the-genius-nigel-farage-and-why-douglas-carswells-votes-wont-set-party-policy/