I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
What are you going to give up and how are you going to work harder?
I do our emails from the Far East at about 5am and am in the office from 7am to about 7pm and regularly work many weekends growing the business outside of he EU.
What do you do?
I do lots of lovely things, but you said that we all have to work harder and make sacrifices. So the obvious question is what are YOU prepared to do to meet your own request. Or are you somehow special?
You do lovely things, are you retired or just modest - We have upped our business development and few staff have a regular weekend off. Nobody has had a pay rise for the last 7 years.
So what are you prepared to do? Please reveal all.
Again, you seem to be talking about other people and in the past. You called for people to work harder and make sacrfices. What are you going to change?
Personally, I think most people work very hard and -- like you - don't have much scope to work harder. So I don't think your request is all that meaningful.
28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 191 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
The moment has arrived for the progressives to bring in the cavalry. It's clear from recent polling that Labour's lead is slipping and if nothing is done we could be faced with a second Thatcheite era which would be every bit as unpleasant as the first.
Labour and it's ad agency can now see the whites of the Tory eyes so it's time fire. It need a strategy which is simple powerful and simply understood. But it needs it now. If the Tories pull away it's going to be uphill and very difficult.
That strategy needs to a total change of course, some vision of what Labour can offer in the modern world. Unlikely though when as present directed by scouse Union Leaders who want more political influence.
Labour need a total rethink become the party pro small business, for that though they need defeat and a new leader, not Burnham though!!!.
Chukka could be the man the more I hear him the more impressive he sounds. He may be the man who is strong enough to take Labour forward, in a more realistic direction.
I had the joy this morning of waking to hear a Labour MP burbling on about Fatcha and pit closures.
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
This is a great illustration of the paucity of Labour thinking which results in policies suitable for the last quarter of the 20th century instead of the 2020s.
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
What are you going to give up and how are you going to work harder?
I do our emails from the Far East at about 5am and am in the office from 7am to about 7pm and regularly work many weekends growing the business outside of he EU.
What do you do?
I do lots of lovely things, but you said that we all have to work harder and make sacrifices. So the obvious question is what are YOU prepared to do to meet your own request. Or are you somehow special?
You do lovely things, are you retired or just modest - We have upped our business development and few staff have a regular weekend off. Nobody has had a pay rise for the last 7 years.
So what are you prepared to do? Please reveal all.
Again, you seem to be talking about other people and in the past. You called for people to work harder and make sacrfices. What are you going to change?
Personally, I think most people work very hard and -- like you - don't have much scope to work harder. So I don't think your request is all that meaningful.
You need to get out of the country more - people in the far east generally work much harder than people here and for less money - that's why we have so much debt here.
28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 191 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Oi b'jesus, Ed's gone and lost his majority.
What will your tagline change to when switchover in seats occurs in your forecast? Ed is truly crap and isn't PM?
Mr. Jessop, I did not see that. Just how good is CFD, though?
I've done the F1 piece but I'll give it a decent look before posting, given it's complicated and there's legal wrangling involved.
IANAE, but know people who work with people who are. ;-)
CFD is most useful for getting broad-brush analysis of cars at an early stage, and for understanding new parts, especially in comparison to existing ones. The wind tunnel gives more information, as do track tests. It is key to get the three working in synergy - when you hear stories of Williams or Ferrari not getting their wind tunnels working, what they really mean is that the results did not match CFD and/or track results.
CFD computers, wind tunnels and tests are now highly restricted within F1, so a large amount of planning goes into planning how to get the best bang for the buck.
Or, if some are to be believed, utterly cheating.
The interesting thing for me is whether this tunnel approach can get around the wind tunnel restrictions. After all, although it is a tunnel, it is not a wind tunnel, and the tests might not be considered straight-line tests, especially if parts are fitted onto non-F1 cars.
However it will probably be used to dial-in CFD results with real-life results.
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
The moment has arrived for the progressives to bring in the cavalry. It's clear from recent polling that Labour's lead is slipping and if nothing is done we could be faced with a second Thatcheite era which would be every bit as unpleasant as the first.
Labour and it's ad agency can now see the whites of the Tory eyes so it's time fire. It need a strategy which is simple powerful and simply understood. But it needs it now. If the Tories pull away it's going to be uphill and very difficult.
"Labour and its ad agency" - LOL self-important much?
But more pertinently, when you say "second Thatche(r)ite era" could you clarify the dates? Did the first one end in 1997? Do you really believe that Tone rolled back the magnificent and necessary reforms of Our Mags? And do you really believe that unsteady Eddie will do anything like roll anything back next year if he wins?
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
Some Kippers will do anything to prevent a referendum..
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
I proved you wrong on that yesterday.. Thought you'd given up inventing arguments against it
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
What about Gareth.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Yes, an update on the NewsSense™ list of ways in which Osborne is going to lose the next election would be entertaining in light of his ever improving numbers
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
What about Gareth.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
A deep depression has descended upon us. The most positive comments on his performance are now coming from isam!
Haha
Labour maybe doing badly Tories are just about to lose another seat to Ukip and are close to going under 30 in another poll... Hardly anything to crow about either
Perfect for Ukip is getting both as close to 30 as possible, I've said so for months
Mr. Back, I must disagree vehemently. Umunna is a career politician, and not so much slick as slimy.
Maybe but at least he has the acumen to stick to the party script in a more creative way than banging out the latest slogan every other sentence, unlike virtually every other member of the front bench.
I also get the feeling he doesn't really believe in the messages he has to give, which is encouraging, or perhaps wishful thinking on my part.
The Tories will lose some seats to Labour, who are holding strong with certain strands of their core. In the big Urban marginals Labour will score a few hits.
However they are losing wwc support and it won't come back easily, especially with Miliband as leader. In the East Midlands that could cost Labour some gains, in Broxtowe it will be close but my feeling is Anna will prevail, same for Amber Valley, Nigel Mills I expect to hold on.
If you are looking for a punt on a Conservative gain from Labour, Derby North, a poor quality MP, UKIP biting into the huge estates and a big chunk of the Liberal vote likely to go Tory.
I respect Lordy's polls but too far out yet to call them as gospel.
I agree but Broxtowe isn't really that wwc - a more university liberal sort of place. I think Nick gets in.
"you can't change deeply-held brand images unless the reality changes too - as with Skoda, say."
Quite right but Labour at the moment are a blank page without a well formed brand image. The proof of this is that it's held a 5-10% lead for a couple of years while being invisible and being led by a plank.
It has a residual USP of being compassionate now the Lib Dems have become Tory but that's about it both positive and negative so plenty for the salesmen to get their teeth into.
Not too fussed about Mock The Week as they take the piss out of everything, but I have got increasingly fed up with the likes of HIGNFY, Ian Hislop in particular has now become part of the establishment that he railed against.
And hugely unfunny 'comedians' such as Marcus Brigstocke would not have an act at all if it wasn't for the Daily Mail.
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
I proved you wrong on that yesterday.. Thought you'd given up inventing arguments against it
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
Only in your head could you ever prove anything - you can barely string a sentence together. Weird, however, is a good word for your posting pattern.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Yes, an update on the NewsSense™ list of ways in which Osborne is going to lose the next election would be entertaining in light of his ever improving numbers
Oh tim was wrong much of the time but he was right a lot also and, critically, his was the essence of left/Lab thinking so at least we had a fast-track into their mindset.
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
I proved you wrong on that yesterday.. Thought you'd given up inventing arguments against it
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
Only in your head could you ever prove anything - you can barely string a sentence together. Weird, however, is a good word for your posting pattern.
Strange to be so personal just because a neutral thought Ed got the better of Dave in the HofC
Still you have no argument and people like that often play the man instead
Well for me the last straw was the dreadful conference and that abysmal speech.
In the days afterward I could feel the dyke protecting Labour's vote share from Ed's terrible ratings crumbling all around, those of us with fingers still in it have decided the game's not worth it.
The thinking was a steady conference with a sensible leader delivering a steady and sensible speech (sigh - from a lecturn) meant we could hold out until May - perhaps with level in vote share with the Tories with the awful FPTP working to ensure Labour part of the next coalition government.
Now even that watered down objective looks decidedly at risk. Only the Tory Party propensity to shoot itself in the foot (as it has done yet again by creating the confected furore over the EU payment request) might save it.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Yes, an update on the NewsSense™ list of ways in which Osborne is going to lose the next election would be entertaining in light of his ever improving numbers
Oh tim was wrong much of the time but he was right a lot also and, critically, his was the essence of left/Lab thinking so at least we had a fast-track into their mindset.
Tim though was a Blairite and I have a feeling he knew Ed was a duffer. Talking of Blairites if Scot Lab don't choose Murphy they will deserve the fall they will undoubtedly get.
"Not too fussed about Mock The Week as they take the piss out of everything, but I have got increasingly fed up with the likes of HIGNFY, Ian Hislop in particular has now become part of the establishment that he railed against."
It's right-wingery that has united all comedians not being anti establishment (though how you could think Farage is anything other than establishment is a mystery). Hislop is different in being an out and out Tory so better to consider his jibes as merely tribal
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
How could Ed have any supporters or cheerleaders left? He is not good at what he does and he is a significant drag on Labour, not only personally but also as a consequence of his piss poor leadership. He has spent four years pursuing a strategy of Save the NHS and We Are Not The Tories. It's epically, epochally bad. I don't think a major party in the UK has had a worst leader in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
I proved you wrong on that yesterday.. Thought you'd given up inventing arguments against it
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
I've not seen any of the Tories on here celebrating a poll that puts the party on 30%. Being encouraged by a poll that puts Labour on 30%, yes, but I'm sure all are aware both that level-pegging isn't enough and that there's a great deal of uncertainty as to how things will pan out between now and May. Still, the trend ...
Well for me the last straw was the dreadful conference and that abysmal speech.
In the days afterward I could feel the dyke protecting Labour's vote share from Ed's terrible ratings crumbling all around, those of us with fingers still in it have decided the game's not worth it.
The thinking was a steady conference with a sensible leader delivering a steady and sensible speech (sigh - from a lecturn) meant we could hold out until May - perhaps with level in vote share with the Tories with the awful FPTP working to ensure Labour part of the next coalition government.
Now even that watered down objective looks decidedly at risk. Only the Tory Party propensity to shoot itself in the foot (as it has done yet again by creating the confected furore over the EU payment request) might save it.
UKIP is doing it's best to save Labour but some of us are more worried about the country than any political party.
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
I proved you wrong on that yesterday.. Thought you'd given up inventing arguments against it
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
I'll be honest - for the first time I genuinely don't know how the next GE will go. I THINK it will be a Labour minority Gov't, but have taken my Con Majority liability off the table. Ed may yet get a majority.
I'll stick with my Labour minority prediction, which is also by far my most profitable (As it means the Tories should have won the national vote share... albeit narrowly) but I'm not ruling anything out.
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
How could Ed have any supporters or cheerleaders left? He is not good at what he does and he is a significant drag on Labour, not only personally but also as a consequence of his piss poor leadership. He has spent four years pursuing a strategy of Save the NHS and We Are Not The Tories. It's epically, epochally bad. I don't think a major party in the UK has had a worst leader in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
The Tories will lose some seats to Labour, who are holding strong with certain strands of their core. In the big Urban marginals Labour will score a few hits.
However they are losing wwc support and it won't come back easily, especially with Miliband as leader. In the East Midlands that could cost Labour some gains, in Broxtowe it will be close but my feeling is Anna will prevail, same for Amber Valley, Nigel Mills I expect to hold on.
If you are looking for a punt on a Conservative gain from Labour, Derby North, a poor quality MP, UKIP biting into the huge estates and a big chunk of the Liberal vote likely to go Tory.
I respect Lordy's polls but too far out yet to call them as gospel.
I agree but Broxtowe isn't really that wwc - a more university liberal sort of place. I think Nick gets in.
Compared with most of the East Midlands it is but it is still very mixed, it is a difficult seat to call at this stage. Anna has that charisma though, it might just get her those extra few votes to pull her over the line. To say she has no chance or has given up as I read on these pages is not the case, locally the Conservatives are confident of performing well in the East Midlands marginals.
"Not too fussed about Mock The Week as they take the piss out of everything, but I have got increasingly fed up with the likes of HIGNFY, Ian Hislop in particular has now become part of the establishment that he railed against."
It's right-wingery that has united all comedians not being anti establishment (though how you could think Farage is anything other than establishment is a mystery). Hislop is different in being an out and out Tory so better to consider his jibes as merely tribal
Hislop usually votes Lib Dem. And the idea that most comedians are right wing is bizzare. Most are either apolitical or soft left.
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
How could Ed have any supporters or cheerleaders left? He is not good at what he does and he is a significant drag on Labour, not only personally but also as a consequence of his piss poor leadership. He has spent four years pursuing a strategy of Save the NHS and We Are Not The Tories. It's epically, epochally bad. I don't think a major party in the UK has had a worst leader in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
It's not even We Are Not The Tories but the constant flipflopping between We Are Not The Evil Nasty People and We Would Not Do That Much Different Anyway.
"but ... but ... but ... I care more" seems to be all he's got in his locker.
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
I proved you wrong on that yesterday.. Thought you'd given up inventing arguments against it
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
I'll be honest - for the first time I genuinely don't know how the next GE will go. I THINK it will be a Labour minority Gov't, but have taken my Con Majority liability off the table. Ed may yet get a majority.
I'll stick with my Labour minority prediction, which is also by far my most profitable (As it means the Tories should have won the national vote share... albeit narrowly) but I'm not ruling anything out.
Smart move. But fear not, Ed won't get a majority.
Is there a MSM commentator actively cheerleading for Ed?
Polly Toynbee and Mary Riddell seem the friendliest towards him. The almost uniform lack of enthusiasm of the commentariat is striking.
I do wonder if it is because of his Leveson stance that all the hacks seem to dislike him ? And the fact that more than a good few of them are very Blairite.
I get the feeling Peter Hitchens dislikes Cameron far more than Ed too.
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
How could Ed have any supporters or cheerleaders left? He is not good at what he does and he is a significant drag on Labour, not only personally but also as a consequence of his piss poor leadership. He has spent four years pursuing a strategy of Save the NHS and We Are Not The Tories. It's epically, epochally bad. I don't think a major party in the UK has had a worst leader in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
Michael Howard must have been at least on a par, Ed was the wrong man backed by the wrong people but there have been worse and could be in future. The prospect Burnham as Labour leader fills me with terror.
I tend to agree with BenM's observation. Most of my Labour supporting friends went from stoic to seriously depressed after the Conference speech. It really was a turning point in a way that these things rarely are. Very few actually watched the speech of course but the theme of the man who forgot the deficit entered the mainstream.
For me, it simply emphasised and confirmed something that was pretty obvious to people like me who spend far too long looking at the minutiae of politics: this man has nothing useful to say about the problems the UK faces, the challenges of the next 5 years and no program or plan for government at all. The blank sheet has become the vacant stare. I have no idea how Labour fixes this but on current trends they are in real trouble.
Well for me the last straw was the dreadful conference and that abysmal speech.
In the days afterward I could feel the dyke protecting Labour's vote share from Ed's terrible ratings crumbling all around, those of us with fingers still in it have decided the game's not worth it.
The thinking was a steady conference with a sensible leader delivering a steady and sensible speech (sigh - from a lecturn) meant we could hold out until May - perhaps with level in vote share with the Tories with the awful FPTP working to ensure Labour part of the next coalition government.
Now even that watered down objective looks decidedly at risk. Only the Tory Party propensity to shoot itself in the foot (as it has done yet again by creating the confected furore over the EU payment request) might save it.
UKIP is doing it's best to save Labour but some of us are more worried about the country than any political party.
The country needs sorely to be rid of conservatism in all forms if it is to prosper.
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
How could Ed have any supporters or cheerleaders left? He is not good at what he does and he is a significant drag on Labour, not only personally but also as a consequence of his piss poor leadership. He has spent four years pursuing a strategy of Save the NHS and We Are Not The Tories. It's epically, epochally bad. I don't think a major party in the UK has had a worst leader in my lifetime, which began 50 years ago.
Do you think Ed will become PM ?
I genuinely hope not. I thought he was a terrible choice as Labour leader from the day he was elected by the unions and I cannot imagine he would be anything other than a terrible PM - especially in charge of a minority administration. I have been waiting for four years now to be proved wrong about Ed. I have tried to give him the benefit of the doubt, but in the end there is no escape from the fact that he is a piss poor leader.
Miliband and Labour also consistently uses the wrong tactics - like yesterday's silly focus on when we knew about the EU Bill when what was needed was a clear line against the EU. A fault also repeated on here by the UKIP trolls.
Haha
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
the Ukip/Labour love fest continues...............yawn
I proved you wrong on that yesterday.. Thought you'd given up inventing arguments against it
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
I'll be honest - for the first time I genuinely don't know how the next GE will go. I THINK it will be a Labour minority Gov't, but have taken my Con Majority liability off the table. Ed may yet get a majority.
I'll stick with my Labour minority prediction, which is also by far my most profitable (As it means the Tories should have won the national vote share... albeit narrowly) but I'm not ruling anything out.
Smart move. But fear not, Ed won't get a majority.
The prices on Con majority have moved out bizzarely as the Labour vote share has fallen (ANd it is the gap that matters). I sold at around 4 and bought at 5.2, so its worked out OK to be honest.
If UKIP perform modestly, and fail to take any Labour seats (Except Thurrock ... sort of) the Lib Dems fight hard against the Tories but fold to Labour (So their collapse is net neutral) and the SNP fail to break alot of the huge Labour majorities, then Ed is starting from a good position before Lab-Con switches are considered.
This won't count towards my scorecard for the season, but I just backed Vettel each way to be the winner without Rosberg/Hamilton at 15 (Ladbrokes), 1/5 the odds for top 3.
So, it wins if he's in the top 5. We only have two previous races to go on, but the Red Bull's done well at both of them. Mercedes is faster, but that's discounted by the nature of the bet. Ricciardo is likely but not certain to finish ahead, and the Williams is a threat. However, I'm not convinced McLaren, despite recent progress, will be able to challenge (the Texas circuit has both fast straight line and twisty bits, and the Red Bull will be miles better in the corners).
So, if I'm right (ahem) that means four cars (Williams/Red Bull) after three places. So odds of just under 3/1 for Vettel to get one of those places looks good to me.
Blunkett gets it - when will Miliband see the light?
Blunkett's intervention is killer for Labour. They're treating the public like mugs: saying they "understand concerns" but not doing anything about it.
I've been trying to read through the EU paperwork about amendments to the budget. There's a lot in there and I can't work it out - perhaps unsurprisingly.
There are many tables in there about a "UK Correction", and the financing thereof, with figures given of: 2010 €3.7bn 2011 €4.2bn 2013 €5.5bn I'm guessing that is the UK rebate?
There are also a variety of adjustments to the 2014 budget, as follows (date, UK amendment) Initial 2014 budget €14,494m 15th April, -€146m 28th May, +€461m 9th July, +€288m 8th September, +€7m 16th October, -€56m 17th October, -€1,491m 17th October, +€12m New amount €13,569m
I can't find the €2.1bn value anywhere, but maybe the EU haven't published the relevant document yet. Anyhow, it seems that the UK is quids in for the 2014 budget year (so far), to the tune of €925m. If you were to combine the €2.1bn correction for previous years with the amendments to the current year then you could produce a "final/net" figure of about €1.2bn.
My guess is that there will be some playing about with numbers along those lines that Cameron will spin as a great victory, but will also satisfy the Commission and the other nation states as it will basically not involve changing anything. But I could be wrong.
Blunkett gets it - when will Miliband see the light?
Blunkett's intervention is killer for Labour. They're treating the public like mugs: saying they "understand concerns" but not doing anything about it.
There is a big problem with migration about a mile from where I'm sitting now in the Page Hall area of Sheffield.
Blunkett gets it - when will Miliband see the light?
Blunkett's intervention is killer for Labour. They're treating the public like mugs: saying they "understand concerns" but not doing anything about it.
I think all this stuff on entitlements and benefits is a bit of red herring. If new immigrants cannot access these, they will still come (most come to work; to build a better economic life for themselves in a physically and politically 'safe' environment) but crowd still further into rented accommodation. If that isn't available, they'll crowd into illegal sheds/outhouses or their own makeshift lodgings elsewhere on the outskirts of town. The local authority will then come under pressure to do something about it on humanitarian grounds.
Ultimately, this is about controlling numbers. That issue cannot be ducked.
You need to get out of the country more - people in the far east generally work much harder than people here and for less money - that's why we have so much debt here.
That is a non sequitar.
People in Italy work less hard than we do, or people in the Far East, yet have far lower levels of debt. And people in some parts of the world - like the US (or in Japan in 1990)- work very hard, and have (or had) very high levels of debt.
It is not hard work, or lack thereof, that causes debt.
Debt is a conscious decision by people to do a 'time transfer of work', and swap the fruits of labour now, for labour in the future.
Speaking of UKIP seconds, must say I'm very confident of my bet whereby I win a pound for each UKIP 2nd over 10.5 2nds. (Max 50 seats)
Whichever party loses the election (Lab/Con) could well come third in the popular vote in 2020 I think. So rather than being a "good one to lose" I think this election is the most important in a generation to WIN.
I've not ploughed through the blizzard of no-doubt excited posts since last night's ComRes. I'd make a few other observations:
1) The Labour number could well be an outlier - it is the lowest Labour figure I've seen for a long time but it could mark another step down the rankings for the Party- we'll see.
2) While there were undoubtedly hundreds of gleeful posts on here about the Labour number, I suspect there weren't so many about the Conservative number. 30% with ComRes and 32% with YouGov are nothing to shout about - they are 1997/2001 levels of support. The disjointed nature of the Conservative side of the Government in recent days suggests to this observer a mild form of panic is setting in particularly with R&S on the horizon.
3) Then we have the complacent view that somehow all these UKIP supporters will "come home" to the Tories as the election approaches. ComRes suggests if they go anywhere it will be back to Labour so it seems to me both the duopoly parties will benefit if UKIP subsides in or before the election campaign.
4) UKIP's problem may be that of the Alliance in 1983 - a vote too evenly distributed but 18% is a strong polling number barely six months before polling day though it remains to be seen if the Party's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The current unimpressive Government response to the EU budget proposal (which looks far too stage-managed) won't send many into the Conservative fold.
5) So what happens IF Reckless holds R&S comfortably for UKIP in three and a bit weeks and the Conservatives are scrapping for second with Labour ? It may do nothing but it will perpetuate the sense of crisis.
6) Duopoly with ComRes 60%, with YouGov 64% (which is low for them). Is 2015 going to be a variant of February 1974 where both main parties lost support and with UKIP playing the role of the Liberals (huge increase in vote share, very little to show for it) ?
Blunkett gets it - when will Miliband see the light?
Blunkett's intervention is killer for Labour. They're treating the public like mugs: saying they "understand concerns" but not doing anything about it.
There is a big problem with migration about a mile from where I'm sitting now in the Page Hall area of Sheffield.
Blunkett gets it - when will Miliband see the light?
Blunkett's intervention is killer for Labour. They're treating the public like mugs: saying they "understand concerns" but not doing anything about it.
There is a big problem with migration about a mile from where I'm sitting now in the Page Hall area of Sheffield.
..If you were to combine the €2.1bn correction for previous years with the amendments to the current year then you could produce a "final/net" figure of about €1.2bn...
And, interestingly, in GBP that would be just under £1bn at about £950m - so under an important psychological threshold. If Cameron can tell the Commons that his determination has taken the UK bill to below £1bn then it will sound good on the evening news.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Yes, an update on the NewsSense™ list of ways in which Osborne is going to lose the next election would be entertaining in light of his ever improving numbers
Oh tim was wrong much of the time but he was right a lot also and, critically, his was the essence of left/Lab thinking so at least we had a fast-track into their mindset.
Tim though was a Blairite and I have a feeling he knew Ed was a duffer. Talking of Blairites if Scot Lab don't choose Murphy they will deserve the fall they will undoubtedly get.
Also if they choose Murphy they will get the fall they deserve, just bigger. People will not vote Red Tories in
I've not ploughed through the blizzard of no-doubt excited posts since last night's ComRes. I'd make a few other observations:
1) The Labour number could well be an outlier - it is the lowest Labour figure I've seen for a long time but it could mark another step down the rankings for the Party- we'll see.
2) While there were undoubtedly hundreds of gleeful posts on here about the Labour number, I suspect there weren't so many about the Conservative number. 30% with ComRes and 32% with YouGov are nothing to shout about - they are 1997/2001 levels of support. The disjointed nature of the Conservative side of the Government in recent days suggests to this observer a mild form of panic is setting in particularly with R&S on the horizon.
3) Then we have the complacent view that somehow all these UKIP supporters will "come home" to the Tories as the election approaches. ComRes suggests if they go anywhere it will be back to Labour so it seems to me both the duopoly parties will benefit if UKIP subsides in or before the election campaign.
4) UKIP's problem may be that of the Alliance in 1983 - a vote too evenly distributed but 18% is a strong polling number barely six months before polling day though it remains to be seen if the Party's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The current unimpressive Government response to the EU budget proposal (which looks far too stage-managed) won't send many into the Conservative fold.
5) So what happens IF Reckless holds R&S comfortably for UKIP in three and a bit weeks and the Conservatives are scrapping for second with Labour ? It may do nothing but it will perpetuate the sense of crisis.
6) Duopoly with ComRes 60%, with YouGov 64% (which is low for them). Is 2015 going to be a variant of February 1974 where both main parties lost support and with UKIP playing the role of the Liberals (huge increase in vote share, very little to show for it) ?
Before I go back to work, I would point out that in 1983, the Alliance got 25%, but was 19% behind the winner.
In 2015, UKIP could get 18%, and be just 12% behind the winner. This would, one would think, mean that they could do rather better.
That being said, it is equally possible, that UKIP will pile up votes in a lot of useless seconds in the North of England (against Labour), will narrowly miss out on a bunch of seats against the Libs in the South West, and will also get a lot of votes in safe Conservative seats in the South and East. In which case, you could very well be right.
4) UKIP's problem may be that of the Alliance in 1983 - a vote too evenly distributed but 18% is a strong polling number barely six months before polling day though it remains to be seen if the Party's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The current unimpressive Government response to the EU budget proposal (which looks far too stage-managed) won't send many into the Conservative fold.
In the 2013 (22% NEV), and 2014 (18% NEV) local elections UKIP's vote was concentrated enough for them to 'win' Westminster seats.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Yes, an update on the NewsSense™ list of ways in which Osborne is going to lose the next election would be entertaining in light of his ever improving numbers
Oh tim was wrong much of the time but he was right a lot also and, critically, his was the essence of left/Lab thinking so at least we had a fast-track into their mindset.
Tim though was a Blairite and I have a feeling he knew Ed was a duffer. Talking of Blairites if Scot Lab don't choose Murphy they will deserve the fall they will undoubtedly get.
Also if they choose Murphy they will get the fall they deserve, just bigger. People will not vote Red Tories in
Are they viewed as Red Tories just because of their unionism? Are Liberal Democrats yellow Tories, for instance?
I can't see anything vaguely Tory about Labour under Ed Miliband, but perhaps Scots see it differently.
Or Pot Noodles - it's the repeat purchase experience that Labour has a problem with [ruining the economy again].
EdM has terrible brand values, and it shows in his polling approval numbers. Frankly, would you want to Be Like Him? No Thanks is the default it appears.
No amount of PR [which isn't Advertising] can sell a crap product - it can only apply lipstick to a pig.
The moment has arrived for the progressives to bring in the cavalry. It's clear from recent polling that Labour's lead is slipping and if nothing is done we could be faced with a second Thatcheite era which would be every bit as unpleasant as the first.
Labour and it's ad agency can now see the whites of the Tory eyes so it's time fire. It need a strategy which is simple powerful and simply understood. But it needs it now. If the Tories pull away it's going to be uphill and very difficult.
Ah, the power of advertising. The problem is that while you can market unknown rubbish as wonderful and get away with it for a while, you can't change deeply-held brand images unless the reality changes too - as with Skoda, say.
I've not ploughed through the blizzard of no-doubt excited posts since last night's ComRes. I'd make a few other observations:
1) The Labour number could well be an outlier - it is the lowest Labour figure I've seen for a long time but it could mark another step down the rankings for the Party- we'll see.
2) While there were undoubtedly hundreds of gleeful posts on here about the Labour number, I suspect there weren't so many about the Conservative number. 30% with ComRes and 32% with YouGov are nothing to shout about - they are 1997/2001 levels of support. The disjointed nature of the Conservative side of the Government in recent days suggests to this observer a mild form of panic is setting in particularly with R&S on the horizon.
3) Then we have the complacent view that somehow all these UKIP supporters will "come home" to the Tories as the election approaches. ComRes suggests if they go anywhere it will be back to Labour so it seems to me both the duopoly parties will benefit if UKIP subsides in or before the election campaign.
4) UKIP's problem may be that of the Alliance in 1983 - a vote too evenly distributed but 18% is a strong polling number barely six months before polling day though it remains to be seen if the Party's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The current unimpressive Government response to the EU budget proposal (which looks far too stage-managed) won't send many into the Conservative fold.
5) So what happens IF Reckless holds R&S comfortably for UKIP in three and a bit weeks and the Conservatives are scrapping for second with Labour ? It may do nothing but it will perpetuate the sense of crisis.
6) Duopoly with ComRes 60%, with YouGov 64% (which is low for them). Is 2015 going to be a variant of February 1974 where both main parties lost support and with UKIP playing the role of the Liberals (huge increase in vote share, very little to show for it) ?
Before I go back to work, I would point out that in 1983, the Alliance got 25%, but was 19% behind the winner.
In 2015, UKIP could get 18%, and be just 12% behind the winner. This would, one would think, mean that they could do rather better.
That being said, it is equally possible, that UKIP will pile up votes in a lot of useless seconds in the North of England (against Labour), will narrowly miss out on a bunch of seats against the Libs in the South West, and will also get a lot of votes in safe Conservative seats in the South and East. In which case, you could very well be right.
Here's an idea for Cameron: link payment of the money to scrapping the Strasbourg location for the European Parliament. Then it would draw attention to French unreasonableness.
Everybody knows the French are being dicks over the parliament, drawing attention to it wouldn't help.
The ultimate resolution to this one will be the parliament working out some kind of trick to avoid having to go to Strasbourg. My suggestion is to allow members to speak and vote remotely, and count people on video links as present for quorums etc. Then send one bloke down to bang a gavel in Strasbourg while everybody else tele-commutes from the parliament chamber in Brussels.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Yes, an update on the NewsSense™ list of ways in which Osborne is going to lose the next election would be entertaining in light of his ever improving numbers
Oh tim was wrong much of the time but he was right a lot also and, critically, his was the essence of left/Lab thinking so at least we had a fast-track into their mindset.
Tim though was a Blairite and I have a feeling he knew Ed was a duffer. Talking of Blairites if Scot Lab don't choose Murphy they will deserve the fall they will undoubtedly get.
Also if they choose Murphy they will get the fall they deserve, just bigger. People will not vote Red Tories in
Are they viewed as Red Tories just because of their unionism? Are Liberal Democrats yellow Tories, for instance?
I can't see anything vaguely Tory about Labour under Ed Miliband, but perhaps Scots see it differently.
Liberals are just lying toads and irrelevant. Labour are now seen as just Red Tories from Scottish viewpoint , not a cigarette paper between them. Murphy in particular is seen as a Blairite Tory , self seeking , greedy , me me arse.
I sincerely would like to know what tim thinks of it all. All we have these days is bobajob and smarmeron who, quite frankly and no offence, seem to be more at home on CiF.
Yes, an update on the NewsSense™ list of ways in which Osborne is going to lose the next election would be entertaining in light of his ever improving numbers
Oh tim was wrong much of the time but he was right a lot also and, critically, his was the essence of left/Lab thinking so at least we had a fast-track into their mindset.
Tim though was a Blairite and I have a feeling he knew Ed was a duffer. Talking of Blairites if Scot Lab don't choose Murphy they will deserve the fall they will undoubtedly get.
Also if they choose Murphy they will get the fall they deserve, just bigger. People will not vote Red Tories in
Are they viewed as Red Tories just because of their unionism? Are Liberal Democrats yellow Tories, for instance?
I can't see anything vaguely Tory about Labour under Ed Miliband, but perhaps Scots see it differently.
Liberals are just lying toads and irrelevant. Labour are now seen as just Red Tories from Scottish viewpoint , not a cigarette paper between them. Murphy in particular is seen as a Blairite Tory , self seeking , greedy , me me arse.
Some advice from McTernan for Slab - should they choose to take it
"The lesson? Play to your own strengths, not to your opponent’s. It’s not rocket salad, as an irate woman once said at a public meeting I attended. The SNP are busy constructing a myth that Scotland is a wildly Left-wing, working-class country. It is not. As the referendum result showed, it is a solidly middle-class, and – dare one say it – moderate Unionist country. "
Comments
" A truly astonishing remark from a PR man! See also David Herdson's comment [8.34am] with which I agree wholeheartedly."
Made me laugh!
Personally, I think most people work very hard and -- like you - don't have much scope to work harder. So I don't think your request is all that meaningful.
28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 191 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
I've done the F1 piece but I'll give it a decent look before posting, given it's complicated and there's legal wrangling involved.
Ed exposed Dave for the deceitful spin merchant he is, get over it
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/america-early-thoughts.html
Labour need a total rethink become the party pro small business, for that though they need defeat and a new leader, not Burnham though!!!.
Chukka could be the man the more I hear him the more impressive he sounds. He may be the man who is strong enough to take Labour forward, in a more realistic direction.
Does Ed have any cheerleaders left? Most supporters/commentators are eerily quiet or actively hostile these days.
Don't suppose anyone knows off the top of their head if my Dallas bet came in???
Tim B looking at another season ending this year... :-)
What will your tagline change to when switchover in seats occurs in your forecast? Ed is truly crap and isn't PM?
CFD is most useful for getting broad-brush analysis of cars at an early stage, and for understanding new parts, especially in comparison to existing ones. The wind tunnel gives more information, as do track tests. It is key to get the three working in synergy - when you hear stories of Williams or Ferrari not getting their wind tunnels working, what they really mean is that the results did not match CFD and/or track results.
CFD computers, wind tunnels and tests are now highly restricted within F1, so a large amount of planning goes into planning how to get the best bang for the buck.
Or, if some are to be believed, utterly cheating.
The interesting thing for me is whether this tunnel approach can get around the wind tunnel restrictions. After all, although it is a tunnel, it is not a wind tunnel, and the tests might not be considered straight-line tests, especially if parts are fitted onto non-F1 cars.
However it will probably be used to dial-in CFD results with real-life results.
But more pertinently, when you say "second Thatche(r)ite era" could you clarify the dates? Did the first one end in 1997? Do you really believe that Tone rolled back the magnificent and necessary reforms of Our Mags? And do you really believe that unsteady Eddie will do anything like roll anything back next year if he wins?
Is a bit weird to see the Tories do here celebrating polls that put them on 30% mind you don't you think?
Labour maybe doing badly Tories are just about to lose another seat to Ukip and are close to going under 30 in another poll... Hardly anything to crow about either
Perfect for Ukip is getting both as close to 30 as possible, I've said so for months
I also get the feeling he doesn't really believe in the messages he has to give, which is encouraging, or perhaps wishful thinking on my part.
"you can't change deeply-held brand images unless the reality changes too - as with Skoda, say."
Quite right but Labour at the moment are a blank page without a well formed brand image. The proof of this is that it's held a 5-10% lead for a couple of years while being invisible and being led by a plank.
It has a residual USP of being compassionate now the Lib Dems have become Tory but that's about it both positive and negative so plenty for the salesmen to get their teeth into.
http://metro.co.uk/2014/10/26/andrew-lawrence-slams-anti-ukip-comedians-in-online-rant-4922419/
Not too fussed about Mock The Week as they take the piss out of everything, but I have got increasingly fed up with the likes of HIGNFY, Ian Hislop in particular has now become part of the establishment that he railed against.
And hugely unfunny 'comedians' such as Marcus Brigstocke would not have an act at all if it wasn't for the Daily Mail.
Still you have no argument and people like that often play the man instead
Well for me the last straw was the dreadful conference and that abysmal speech.
In the days afterward I could feel the dyke protecting Labour's vote share from Ed's terrible ratings crumbling all around, those of us with fingers still in it have decided the game's not worth it.
The thinking was a steady conference with a sensible leader delivering a steady and sensible speech (sigh - from a lecturn) meant we could hold out until May - perhaps with level in vote share with the Tories with the awful FPTP working to ensure Labour part of the next coalition government.
Now even that watered down objective looks decidedly at risk. Only the Tory Party propensity to shoot itself in the foot (as it has done yet again by creating the confected furore over the EU payment request) might save it.
Blunkett gets it - when will Miliband see the light?
"Not too fussed about Mock The Week as they take the piss out of everything, but I have got increasingly fed up with the likes of HIGNFY, Ian Hislop in particular has now become part of the establishment that he railed against."
It's right-wingery that has united all comedians not being anti establishment (though how you could think Farage is anything other than establishment is a mystery). Hislop is different in being an out and out Tory so better to consider his jibes as merely tribal
I'll stick with my Labour minority prediction, which is also by far my most profitable (As it means the Tories should have won the national vote share... albeit narrowly) but I'm not ruling anything out.
"but ... but ... but ... I care more" seems to be all he's got in his locker.
It'll have to be a late switch to the Greens this time.
I get the feeling Peter Hitchens dislikes Cameron far more than Ed too.
For me, it simply emphasised and confirmed something that was pretty obvious to people like me who spend far too long looking at the minutiae of politics: this man has nothing useful to say about the problems the UK faces, the challenges of the next 5 years and no program or plan for government at all. The blank sheet has become the vacant stare. I have no idea how Labour fixes this but on current trends they are in real trouble.
If UKIP perform modestly, and fail to take any Labour seats (Except Thurrock ... sort of) the Lib Dems fight hard against the Tories but fold to Labour (So their collapse is net neutral) and the SNP fail to break alot of the huge Labour majorities, then Ed is starting from a good position before Lab-Con switches are considered.
Betting PostThis won't count towards my scorecard for the season, but I just backed Vettel each way to be the winner without Rosberg/Hamilton at 15 (Ladbrokes), 1/5 the odds for top 3.
So, it wins if he's in the top 5. We only have two previous races to go on, but the Red Bull's done well at both of them. Mercedes is faster, but that's discounted by the nature of the bet. Ricciardo is likely but not certain to finish ahead, and the Williams is a threat. However, I'm not convinced McLaren, despite recent progress, will be able to challenge (the Texas circuit has both fast straight line and twisty bits, and the Red Bull will be miles better in the corners).
So, if I'm right (ahem) that means four cars (Williams/Red Bull) after three places. So odds of just under 3/1 for Vettel to get one of those places looks good to me.
Cheeky - You've even yellow-boxed it!
There are many tables in there about a "UK Correction", and the financing thereof, with figures given of:
2010 €3.7bn
2011 €4.2bn
2013 €5.5bn
I'm guessing that is the UK rebate?
There are also a variety of adjustments to the 2014 budget, as follows (date, UK amendment)
Initial 2014 budget €14,494m
15th April, -€146m
28th May, +€461m
9th July, +€288m
8th September, +€7m
16th October, -€56m
17th October, -€1,491m
17th October, +€12m
New amount €13,569m
I can't find the €2.1bn value anywhere, but maybe the EU haven't published the relevant document yet. Anyhow, it seems that the UK is quids in for the 2014 budget year (so far), to the tune of €925m. If you were to combine the €2.1bn correction for previous years with the amendments to the current year then you could produce a "final/net" figure of about €1.2bn.
My guess is that there will be some playing about with numbers along those lines that Cameron will spin as a great victory, but will also satisfy the Commission and the other nation states as it will basically not involve changing anything. But I could be wrong.
Even the Rosberg 24/1 or 16/1 tip (and the subsequent evens tips on Hamilton go all-green) won't count towards the scorecard.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/tribal-loyalty-stops-bad-news-becoming-worse-for-party-leaders/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tribal-loyalty-stops-bad-news-becoming-worse-for-party-leaders&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
FTR - When Lewis becomes value I will start betting on him again - a tactic I clearly stated many months ago!
So however bad the current numbers appear for Con/Lab, the truth is probably worse.
ComRes online 16 Oct, standard prompting.
Con 31%, Lab 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 19%
ComRes online 16 Oct, include UKIP in prompting
Con 29%, Lab 31%, LD 7%, UKIP 24%
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/sheffield-mp-easing-roma-migrant-fears-1-6248246
Contrast Blunkett and Clegg's attitudes to the issue.
Blunkett will of course win the seat, and I'd have thought UKIP would be an easy second in Sheffield Brightside.
Ultimately, this is about controlling numbers. That issue cannot be ducked.
People in Italy work less hard than we do, or people in the Far East, yet have far lower levels of debt. And people in some parts of the world - like the US (or in Japan in 1990)- work very hard, and have (or had) very high levels of debt.
It is not hard work, or lack thereof, that causes debt.
Debt is a conscious decision by people to do a 'time transfer of work', and swap the fruits of labour now, for labour in the future.
Whichever party loses the election (Lab/Con) could well come third in the popular vote in 2020 I think. So rather than being a "good one to lose" I think this election is the most important in a generation to WIN.
I've not ploughed through the blizzard of no-doubt excited posts since last night's ComRes. I'd make a few other observations:
1) The Labour number could well be an outlier - it is the lowest Labour figure I've seen for a long time but it could mark another step down the rankings for the Party- we'll see.
2) While there were undoubtedly hundreds of gleeful posts on here about the Labour number, I suspect there weren't so many about the Conservative number. 30% with ComRes and 32% with YouGov are nothing to shout about - they are 1997/2001 levels of support. The disjointed nature of the Conservative side of the Government in recent days suggests to this observer a mild form of panic is setting in particularly with R&S on the horizon.
3) Then we have the complacent view that somehow all these UKIP supporters will "come home" to the Tories as the election approaches. ComRes suggests if they go anywhere it will be back to Labour so it seems to me both the duopoly parties will benefit if UKIP subsides in or before the election campaign.
4) UKIP's problem may be that of the Alliance in 1983 - a vote too evenly distributed but 18% is a strong polling number barely six months before polling day though it remains to be seen if the Party's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The current unimpressive Government response to the EU budget proposal (which looks far too stage-managed) won't send many into the Conservative fold.
5) So what happens IF Reckless holds R&S comfortably for UKIP in three and a bit weeks and the Conservatives are scrapping for second with Labour ? It may do nothing but it will perpetuate the sense of crisis.
6) Duopoly with ComRes 60%, with YouGov 64% (which is low for them). Is 2015 going to be a variant of February 1974 where both main parties lost support and with UKIP playing the role of the Liberals (huge increase in vote share, very little to show for it) ?
In 2015, UKIP could get 18%, and be just 12% behind the winner. This would, one would think, mean that they could do rather better.
That being said, it is equally possible, that UKIP will pile up votes in a lot of useless seconds in the North of England (against Labour), will narrowly miss out on a bunch of seats against the Libs in the South West, and will also get a lot of votes in safe Conservative seats in the South and East. In which case, you could very well be right.
I can't see anything vaguely Tory about Labour under Ed Miliband, but perhaps Scots see it differently.
EdM has terrible brand values, and it shows in his polling approval numbers. Frankly, would you want to Be Like Him? No Thanks is the default it appears.
No amount of PR [which isn't Advertising] can sell a crap product - it can only apply lipstick to a pig.
It's Marketing that I could never get my head round...
The ultimate resolution to this one will be the parliament working out some kind of trick to avoid having to go to Strasbourg. My suggestion is to allow members to speak and vote remotely, and count people on video links as present for quorums etc. Then send one bloke down to bang a gavel in Strasbourg while everybody else tele-commutes from the parliament chamber in Brussels.
I can't see how he's going to turn this around - unless he comes out as Superman. Literally.
Greybull Capital has bought the airline from the Mantegazza family which has owned it since the 1960s.
More than 90% of unionised staff voted to accept the changes. Two-thirds of the redundancies will be voluntary.
The fleet will be reduced from 42 aircraft to 34, and long-haul and charter flying will end by April.
The network will specialise in Monarch's scheduled short-haul European leisure routes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-29796794
He's got momentum, the best car and has always been rated a better driver than Rosberg, despite how very close things have been.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/11190472/Labour-starts-a-civil-war-north-of-the-border.html
"The lesson? Play to your own strengths, not to your opponent’s. It’s not rocket salad, as an irate woman once said at a public meeting I attended.
The SNP are busy constructing a myth that Scotland is a wildly Left-wing, working-class country. It is not. As the referendum result showed, it is a solidly middle-class, and – dare one say it – moderate Unionist country. "
C'est la vie as they say
And ICYMI - apparently Lloyds are cutting 7k staff...