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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why CON could still be losing seats to LAB even if its manages to get a 6% lead
So under a uniform national swing CON needs to be ahead by that margin simply to stop losing seats to LAB. That is the starting point for the party at GE15 – to do at least as well as they did last time. Thus it cannot be assumed that CON lead of 6% is sufficient for them to hang onto all they hold at the moment from LAB.
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Never forget UNS is a model of the electoral system, not a rule of the electoral system...
UNS has broken down before, e.g. notably in 2001.
What actually happens depends on a host of factors. Some will (broadly) cancel out, but others may easily stack up to the detriment of one or more parties in the election...
New ComRes phone poll for Indy - LAB down 5, UKIP up 4
CON 30 (+1), LAB 30, (-5), LD 9 (-1), UKIP 19 (+4), GRN 4 (nc)
Not the first poll to show a larger than MOE swing directly from LAB>UKiP – I think the days of Ed giggling from the side-lines as the blues and purples battle it out may be gone for good.
Support for Ukip has surged to a record high following the surprise attempt by Brussels to levy a £1.7bn “surcharge” on Britain, a ComRes survey for the Independent reveals today.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-huge-surge-in-support-for-ukip-after-17bn-eu-funding-row-according-to-new-poll-9821889.html
Ed's 35% strategy may need a re-think...
Just 49% of Labour VI think it is best to handle asylum and immigration - a soft and vulnerable edge to be nibbled away by UKIP and Cons.
This isn't really true when the Liberals / Lib Dems' performance has taken a hit nationally, although the data is scarce.
In 1970, the Liberal vote fell 1% and their representation halved.
In 1979, the Liberal vote fell 4.5% but they only lost 2 out of 13 seats (one of which was Thorpe, where special circumstances applied).
In 2011, the Lib Dems lost 9 of their 11 constituency seats and saw little compensation in the regional top-ups.
Now, the polls *do* suggest that Lib Dem-held seats are outperforming their national share at the moment and that we can't ignore. However, there does come a tipping point - and the Lib Dems are close to it - where they have hardly any votes left to lose except in their strong areas.
Blunkett gets it - pity about Miliband and the chattering classes.
A 7% lead on a combined share of 80% is a very different thing from one on a combined share of 50%, for example, simply because the further down you go, the more you bottom out in your worst seats and so a larger share has to have come from elsewhere.
In any case, an element of proportionality has to be included to take account of the dramatic change in vote shares of the Lib Dems and UKIP since 2010.
Both new lows for the Parliament?
UKIP up to 25 on both. New highs ?
"As a result of a substantial recent influx of incomers from Eastern Europe, there has been a host of difficulties, such as a lack of interpretation services, exploitation of migrants by rogue landlords, the stress on normal waste collection because of multiple occupation of terrace housing and the gathering of large groups in the streets.
But these issues will not be resolved by attacking foreigners and creating a climate of fear, as Ukip tries to do.
What we need is, first, an honest, calm reflection on how people feel about their neighbourhoods, and then a search for practical solutions.
That means, for instance, enforcing norms of behaviour, introducing an expectation that all citizens should speak the English language, strengthening borders through agreement with other European nations and stipulating that people can claim benefits only on the basis of the contributions they have made to Britain.......
Those who have not found work should return to their countries of origin — a requirement that is perfectly applicable within current EU rules.
In simple terms, if you come here to work, you should work, and there should be no access to social security or state housing without having built up an entitlement.
Such measures would help to lance the boil of immigration concerns and thereby restore faith in our democracy.
What will not work is shouting down any politician who dares to engage with the British public’s concerns. The issue is far too serious for such posturing."
Dudley N
lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Dudley-North.pdf
Lab 40, UKIP 27, Tory 24
Great Grimsby
lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Great-Grimsby.pdf
Lab 38, UKIP 26, Tory 21
Walsall N
lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Walsall-North.pdf
Lab 37, UKIP 30, Tory 21
Six months on, with polling moving the way it is, these really should be UKIP targets.
I think it's fair to see the 2015GE results will be mixed, depending upon the seat and the profile of the local MP.
Been very interesting in recent days to see tweets appearing proclaiming what a good MP Anna Soubry is, said tweets being from non-Tory voters. I like Nick as a person but really looking forward to seeing her majority increase at the GE to more than 1000.
It really is time you betting types start looking at the marginal Labour seats which could go Tory in May.
Meanwhile back in North Britain, Labour politicians are falling over one another not to stand for the SLAB leadership. Jim Murphy may be intelligent, articulate and to the right of the Labour Party but he is not an MSP and if SLAB elects a Westminster MP as Scottish leader, it will just add fuel to the media story that Labour treats Scotland like a branch office of Westminster.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29775281
(John Tory that is - he's a moderate conservative, what else?)
You wouldn't mind pasting them here would you ?
I must admit to be a little curious as to how you're aware of them and to how you know they're from non-Tory voters.
The big question is who can unwind that support, if possible back to them at the GE.
What does he need LibLabKip to be polling for that to leave him in number 10?
What does he need LibLabKip to be polling for him to have an effective majority?
How many does he need to have a strong enough minority government that he can call on UKIP/UUP to back the right wing elements from his manifesto, and the Libs to back his left wing bits?
The great irony being from her first day as PM to her last Thatcher's government subsidised the mining industry with taxpayers money.
Now how much money did the last Labour government give to coal mining ?
Newton Abbot and Cambourne were also both big swings and a big profits.
Until now the polling has been very clear and so the narrative has been very clear. Of course, we could spend 5 years between elections saying "no point speculating, let's wait for the result" but that would somewhat devalue a political betting site, wouldn't it?
In the last couple of weeks, however, there have been dramatic changes in that the firewall that Labour relied on for so long has become a sieve. As has been discussed on here before this is not so much because the 2010 Lib Dems are wandering off (although the percentage of them voting Labour has clearly fallen) as the 2010 Labour vote proving to be weak with a tendency to slide to UKIP.
I suspect by Friday if this continues the model will show the Tories as the largest party by a comfortable margin again. What is missing is a significant increase in the Tory vote which is broadly static in the very low 30s. This remains a challenge with UKIP taking a reasonable chunk of the 2010 Tory vote.
The point made by David Herdson below is an interesting one: if the Tory/Lab share of the vote is diminished is it necessary to have the same level of gap between them to get the same result? Logically, I would say not but the effect of the UKIP surge is highly unpredictable and makes traditional modelling suspect.
What I think is clear is that Labour is facing an existential crisis with a very serious risk that they will poll significantly below what Brown got in 2010. The lower they go the lower the bar for the Tories. I can now see a scenario where their share of the vote falls from 2010 and their number of seats increases. Interesting times.
The world has moved on and is moving on at a greater speed and Labour and the unions have to realise that the game has changed markedly and Western Europe is playing (not very well) catch up with Asia.
We have to change our game, work a lot harder, become more aspirational and reward ourselves less - the world does not owe us a living and will not continue to lend us money to enable us to live in the way we have become accustomed. No doubt shouts of Not Fair will arise from the ranks of Labour and the LibDems, but it is either adapt or die.
MichaelGreen: I've always been Labour but Anna Soubry is brilliant # voteconservative
SebastianFox: I'm not a Conservative but Anna Soubry is a much better MP than Nick Palmer was # CameronforPM
Which would be about the only election in history that it didn't. The fact is that mid term, a large amount of voters use opinion polls as a verdict on government performance rather than an indication of voting intention.
The Guardian has all its ICM polls since 1984 online. The swingback from the October the previous year opinion poll to the election results are below:
1987 Election
Oct 1986 Opinion Poll Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
June 1987 Election Tories 11 points ahead of Labour
Change 14 points towards incumbent government
1992 Election
Oct 1991 Opinion Poll Labour 8 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Tories 7 points ahead of Labour
Change 15 points towards incumbent government
1997 Election
Oct 1996 Opinion Poll Labour 18 points ahead of Tories
May 1997 Election Labour 12 points ahead of Tories
Change 6 points towards incumbent government
2001 Election
Oct 2000 Opinion Poll Labour 5 points ahead of Tories
June 2001 Election Labour 9 points ahead of Tories
Change 4 points towards incumbent government.
2005 Election
Oct 2004 Opinion Poll Labour 6 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 3 points ahead of Tories
Change 3 points away from incumbent government.
2010 Election
Oct 2009 Opinion Poll Labour 17 points ahead of Tories
April 1992 Election Labour 7 points ahead of Tories
Change 10 points towards incumbent government.
Only in one of those elections (2005) did the incumbent lose between October and the election. In all the others the incumbent regained between 4 and 15 points, the average over all six elections is 8.8%
Which party is incumbent is also a significant factor.
Where Tories are incumbent on average they pulled back 11.67% between October and the Election
Where labour are incumbent on average they pulled back 6% between October and the Election
Three factors this time will exacerbate matters further for Labour.
(1) SNP in Scotland
(2) Fixed term parliament act. Normally by October before election, mid termism is fading as the Prime Minister can go to the country at any time. This time round, we know the election won't be until May 2015 so opinion poll recipients will still be more "mid term" in their responses.
(3) LD vote collapse erodes the advantage the electoral system gives Labour.
Sorry but this is, I think, wishful thinking by OGH. Labour are in deep, deep trouble.
Amber valley, which is not far from where I live is interesting. There is 7% from BNP from GE 2010 up for grabs.
A Radio 4 piece on Scottish Labour a little earlier just reinforces my opinion that Labour's massive majorities in 30 or 40 Scottish seats will disappear next year.
I also wonder if anything will happen in Wales or if that is a battleground for the next election cycle. The Welsh Assembly government also appears to be making a pigs ear of things.
If the Tories have a problem with Ukip (and they do!) then Labour face a battle with Ukip, SNP, Plaid, the Greens, etc, etc.
Montgomery was definitely a surprise, as the odds at the time attest to, which another richard points out below.
All of this took place at a time when the Lib Dems were supposed to be riding the back of the Cleggasm, a party that achieved a higher share of the national vote than even in 2005. Most of us, myself included, expected the Lib Dems to rise to c.80 seats at the time.
How do you think they will fair next year, with a vote share that's over halved?
The alternative is you don't have anything better to do than read endless tweets from people you've never heard of.
And if Philip Davies is getting dozens of such tweets every day that suggests that over 10,000 people a year are tweeting that he's a good constituency MP.
Either that or 100 obsessives are making 100 tweets each.
I've asked Shadsy for odds on this.
2010 : lab plus LD : 53.6
Populus for Indy : 39
Where dey go ?
Shy Tories getting more confidence as the date gets closer? Harder headed decision making?
If Soubry holds on we are heading for a comfortable tory majority. She has exactly the sort of seat (very small majority, large ex Lib Dem minority) that Labour should pick up without breaking sweat. If Labour support does fall well into the 20s by polling day she may have a chance but overall she probably requires a more favourable scenario than 2010 to hang on.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11190452/Only-the-spirit-of-Fontainebleau-can-reduce-our-soaring-EU-bill.html
Cameron should link payment of the bill to huge EU reform: capping the budget and getting rid of agricultural subsidies. He could also take the Italians' approach of drawing attention to the EU palaces if Brussels gets difficult.
To me all the options next May look pretty depressing, seeing Farages braying face in parliament amongst them.
A weak coalition or minority government in thrall to pressure groups and preventing real action on the countries ills seems on the cards. Still, the country has survived worse.
I was struggling to find a link to antifrank's analyses which were somewhat more sophisticated. As the Labour lead evaporates it would be worth revisiting some of these.
Everything I've read here to-day has confirmed this to me, and I'll be surprised if Casino Royale [7.57am] can get attractive odds out of Shadsy...
Worth (re-)emphasizing: past practice of far less use than usual because this has been a coalition government & a fixed-term Parliament. Neither of these may make the slightest difference but for now we just don't know.
Also I would expect UKIP to start making noises (after it's won Rochester) about the seats it's particularly eyeing up, both for candidate name recognition and for activist direction. I would expect them to be paired off (one Labour, one Tory) by region e.g. Boston with Grimsby and so on. We could even help them out! BTW, does anyone think any :Lib Dem seat might be a UKIP target?
What do you do?
In June antifrank was noting a shortening of odds in tory held seats. I suspect that this is continuing. OTOH there was at least a hint of lengthening of odds in Tory targets. I suspect that is where the value is at the moment but it needs to be selective.
NOM and a lot of not terribly effective horsetrading looks most likely, with no party honouring its manifesto. Still, that probably reflects the national will fairly accurately!
"To repeat: I predict Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23. SNP to out-poll Lib Dems."
Does it gain credibility the more you say it?
Both strategies carry big risks if they go wrong. If they go specific then make a national breakthough, they may still only take a few due to not being able to capitalise on the rising tide; if they go for broke and then don't reach critical velocity, they could end up with next to nothing.
8% to Labour
4% to Tories
2% to UKIP
1% to Greens (this may change if the Greens can get more momentum)
Since the Labour vote is roughly where it was we can assume
2% Tory --> Labour
6% Labour --> UKIP
1% Labour --> Greens
So the tories should be laughing - but they are down 4 or 5 points so (since LDs have voted 4% Tories) the assumption is
8% Tory --> UKIP
Although more Tories have gone to UKIP, as a percentage of the 2010 Tory vote the figures are closer.
So the crux for betting is: are there hotspots where a significantly greater percentage of Labour voters have switched to UKIP.
And the answer must be: areas where the vast majority of the Labour vote is the traditional blue-collar worker rather than the public sector or the immigrant vote.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-1.html
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/the-hunt-for-2010-lib-dems-part-2-lib_24.html
My thoughts have evolved since then, notably in the wake of the Scottish independence referendum and the emergence of the Greens.
But as the Lib Dems' national vote share stays nailed to the floor, the points I make about the Scottish Lib Dems' chances of outperforming uniform national swing become steadily more relevant to the rest of the UK also.
Saw the poll on the news last night. 30/30 is bloody low for the big two, and -5 for Labour's not great. The Lamont effect? If so, that might slowly recover as memory of her denunciation of Miliband fades.
Or not, depending how the leadership goes. Will Labour end up speaking with different voices north and south of the border?
However they are losing wwc support and it won't come back easily, especially with Miliband as leader. In the East Midlands that could cost Labour some gains, in Broxtowe it will be close but my feeling is Anna will prevail, same for Amber Valley, Nigel Mills I expect to hold on.
If you are looking for a punt on a Conservative gain from Labour, Derby North, a poor quality MP, UKIP biting into the huge estates and a big chunk of the Liberal vote likely to go Tory.
I respect Lordy's polls but too far out yet to call them as gospel.
So what are you prepared to do? Please reveal all.
I don't know if you saw my post from last night, when I managed to combine my loves of motorsport, civil engineering (esp. tunnelling) and railways. As the company also does CFD, I can probably add computing to the list:
http://www.racecar-engineering.com/news/industry/exclusive-secret-aerodynamic-test-facility-revealed/
It sounds ridiculous, but it's been done before:
http://www.racecar-engineering.com/articles/nascar/the-secrets-of-laurel-hill/
Labour and it's ad agency can now see the whites of the Tory eyes so it's time fire. It need a strategy which is simple powerful and simply understood. But it needs it now. If the Tories pull away it's going to be uphill and very difficult.