Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.
They have a really strong case to put on the NHS - Stafford, Wales ....:)
Indeed .They just haven't learnt from Heywood and Middleton where they did exactly the same thing.Remember the lady who was interviewed on the BBC the day after H&M and said "there were other issues which were relevant here". If the media destroy the myth of Labour and the NHS they will have nothing left.
Labour's record on health in Kent left something to be desired.
As I remember there were 300 unnecessary and very unpleasant deaths in the Maidstone hospital scandal:
Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.
A charge may be a good idea or not. But the fact is that Nuttal has said - "that the very existence of the NHS stifles competition .... as long as the NHS is the 'sacred cow' of British politics, the longer the British people will suffer with a second rate health service". Niuttal's withdrawn those comments from the web - but the fact is thats what he thinks. Its probably one of the more printable things that he actually really thinks.
Also, their health spokesman de jour said that if you are deemed not an urgent ER case you can pay to avoid waiting and if you are not registered with a GP you would be charged to see one. Again you may or not agree but thats whats been said. Farage has also said in the Telegraph that there should be cuts to NHS spending and that big business should run it. This may be good or bad. But thats what he said. The point is he soft peddles that view when he talks to working class voters NHS friendly voters.
Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.
A charge may be a good idea or not. But the fact is that Nuttal has said - "that the very existence of the NHS stifles competition .... as long as the NHS is the 'sacred cow' of British politics, the longer the British people will suffer with a second rate health service". Niuttal's withdrawn those comments from the web - but the fact is thats what he thinks. Its probably one of the more printable things that he actually really thinks.
Also, their health spokesman de jour said that if you are deemed not an urgent ER case you can pay to avoid waiting and if you are not registered with a GP you would be charged to see one. Again you may or not agree but thats whats been said. Farage has also said in the Telegraph that there should be cuts to NHS spending and that big business should run it. This may be good or bad. But thats what he said. The point is he soft peddles that view when he talks to working class voters NHS friendly voters.
So stop pretending
You know very well that charging is not UKIP policy and Farage made that very clear yesterday. Nuttall does not set policy on his own .There are senior Labour politicians such as Lord Winston who have broached this issue but no one says it is Labour policy.It is a lie and if alleged against an individual would be actionable defamation.
Mr. Eagles, 5 points is a large rise. Not sure I believe it (suspect the starting point was lower than reality). UKIP are thrice as popular as the Lib Dems. A 12pt lead is pretty huge. I wonder who would've predicted that in 2010.
1) Alan Mak 2) Michael McManus 3) Charlotte Vere 4) Chris Hayward
He's on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background, (not that I personally care about details of that sort).
No he's not on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background. He's got to beat UKIP in Boston & Skegness, one of their five most likely seats to win according to the Grauniad
As I have posted several times . UKIP are very unlikely to win Boston and Skegness as there will be two rival UKIP candidates following the split in Lincs UKIP last year .
Tories and Lab now level in latest Op/Obs poll. Con 33 (up 5pts), Lab 33 (-2), Ukip 18 (+1), LD 6% (-3), Green and SNP both 4% (n/c).
labours share has definitely diminished in the last few weeks across the pollsters. terminal decline??? EdMs chances of keeping a lead till may 2015 are fading fast
Tories and Lab now level in latest Op/Obs poll. Con 33 (up 5pts), Lab 33 (-2), Ukip 18 (+1), LD 6% (-3), Green and SNP both 4% (n/c).
To be fair, nobody took the 28% number very seriously so that was clearly an outlier. I'd like to think the LD number might be one on this poll but that may not be the case.
Combined Con-UKIP total at 51 looks high - combined Con-Lab at 66 pretty much in line though higher than Ashcroft.
Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.
A charge may be a good idea or not. But the fact is that Nuttal has said - "that the very existence of the NHS stifles competition .... as long as the NHS is the 'sacred cow' of British politics, the longer the British people will suffer with a second rate health service". Niuttal's withdrawn those comments from the web - but the fact is thats what he thinks. Its probably one of the more printable things that he actually really thinks.
Also, their health spokesman de jour said that if you are deemed not an urgent ER case you can pay to avoid waiting and if you are not registered with a GP you would be charged to see one. Again you may or not agree but thats whats been said. Farage has also said in the Telegraph that there should be cuts to NHS spending and that big business should run it. This may be good or bad. But thats what he said. The point is he soft peddles that view when he talks to working class voters NHS friendly voters.
So stop pretending
I don't think we need lectures from supporters of a party who seem to change their mind on what their immigration policy is on a weekly basis these days, who have been prevaricating over their EU aspirations for decades, who shortly before the last election announced they had no plans to raise VAT and then did so within weeks of taking power, a party who didn't even include same sex marriage proposals in their manifesto and who agreed to a referendum on AV after months of denouncing that very voting system. When Cameron's Tories stop pretending and are straight with people then and only then can their stooges start lecturing others about pretense! Incidentally what is Dan Hannan's view of the NHS these days? Still the same?
PS And Nuttall is right the NHS is treated like a sacred cow in Westminster which explains the wholly inadequate response by all the parties to the Mid Staffs tragedy!
Tories and Lab now level in latest Op/Obs poll. Con 33 (up 5pts), Lab 33 (-2), Ukip 18 (+1), LD 6% (-3), Green and SNP both 4% (n/c).
To be fair, nobody took the 28% number very seriously so that was clearly an outlier. I'd like to think the LD number might be one on this poll but that may not be the case.
Combined Con-UKIP total at 51 looks high - combined Con-Lab at 66 pretty much in line though higher than Ashcroft.
Do ex-LD chums try to convert you to their new allegiance?
On topic, I'm expecting a turnout on a par with the West Mids one, which was around 10%.
There's been some activity, I think Labour are hoping that no Lib Dem candidate is a boost for them.
The Tory candidate has been doing local TV and radio, the UKIP candidate isn't impressive and he's an ex South Yorks copper.
Interestingly, Ian Walker, the Tory candidate has made a big play of the Labour candidate being the second choice last time.
Speaking to some Labour activist prior to today's intervention, they said if UKIP did something like this, it might galvanise the Lab support to turnout
I'm loathe to call an election with a pisspoor turnout on a cold October night.
But I won't be putting my money on a Lab victory, but I won't be surprised if they squeak home.
Mr. Eagles, 5 points is a large rise. Not sure I believe it (suspect the starting point was lower than reality). UKIP are thrice as popular as the Lib Dems. A 12pt lead is pretty huge. I wonder who would've predicted that in 2010.
The last poll with the Tories on 28, was an outlier, so it looks even more impressive this time around.
For all their faults, it's far too early to say that PCC's are failures. On the contrary, I'd suggest that the whinging coming from the vested interests suggests that they're well-set to be a useful addition to the democratic armoury. That doesn't mean there won't be failings: there will. But just as some bad MPs doesn't undermine parliamentary democracy, nor should a bad PCC undermine that system.
I'm possibly the only poster here who sits on a Police and Crime Panel which oversees (albeit with few powers; we should have more) the Commissioner and whom we meet regularly. I wholeheartedly agree with David. The system is not perfect but it far excels the previous Police Authorities in promoting direct and democratic accountability to residents, and overall supervision of the police force in the county.
Mark Oaten, Lembit Opek, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, Mike Hancock, 30 Conquests Clegg, Jeremy Thorpe, that P0rn film producer who they made a candidate in Medway in 2010. Hmmmm dull is good........
Mark Oaten, Lembit Opek, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, Mike Hancock, 30 Conquests Clegg, Jeremy Thorpe, that P0rn film producer who they made a candidate in Medway in 2010. Hmmmm dull is good........
"a prolific amateur painter who has decorated rooms of his home with erotic scenes from the Kama Sutra, among other sources of inspiration. He has openly had sexual relations with over 70 women during his marriage, and has installed many of them in estate cottages. He refers to these women as wifelets."
Mark Oaten, Lembit Opek, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, Mike Hancock, 30 Conquests Clegg, Jeremy Thorpe, that P0rn film producer who they made a candidate in Medway in 2010. Hmmmm dull is good........
"a prolific amateur painter who has decorated rooms of his home with erotic scenes from the Kama Sutra, among other sources of inspiration. He has openly had sexual relations with over 70 women during his marriage, and has installed many of them in estate cottages. He refers to these women as wifelets."
I'd not made that connection but good one. Of course I also forgot to mention 'Paddy Pantsdown' as well!
On topic, I'm expecting a turnout on a par with the West Mids one, which was around 10%.
There's been some activity, I think Labour are hoping that no Lib Dem candidate is a boost for them.
The Tory candidate has been doing local TV and radio, the UKIP candidate isn't impressive and he's an ex South Yorks copper.
Interestingly, Ian Walker, the Tory candidate has made a big play of the Labour candidate being the second choice last time.
Speaking to some Labour activist prior to today's intervention, they said if UKIP did something like this, it might galvanise the Lab support to turnout
I'm loathe to call an election with a pisspoor turnout on a cold October night.
But I won't be putting my money on a Lab victory, but I won't be surprised if they squeak home.
A turnout that low would be quite tragic. If what has happened in that area over recent years - or at least the publicising of it - has not convinced locals to come out and vote for someone who might be able to sort the police out, then nothing will.
I can't quite believe that there would be that much apathy given the crimes and the resultant publicity. A good, sharp PCC might be able to apply pointed pressure to the police and local councils, something that is obviously needed.
It's why I'm staggered that UKIP have chosen an ex-inspector from that very force. A terrible choice.
But if the good people of South Yorkshire vote for a Labour PPC once again, then they need their heads testing.
Oh yeah, Another poll with Labour below the magic 35%
...and the Conservatives below the magic 38?
It would be a different story if Priti was in charge...
Look at the trend.
Sleazy broken Labour on the slide, Virtuous brilliant Tories on the up, and the Lib Dems LOL.
It is all going to rest on what happens to the 8% Kipper share that goes back "home". If that breaks 2:1 Labour, Ed is in No. 10.
What makes you think it's going back home, wherever that is.
If the left are as arrogant as audreyanne then you are in for a shock.
Nothing to do with arrogance, although the term 'going back home' implies some sort of ownership.
I would suggest that UKIP will get votes that are about 20% below the peak VI opinion poll taken in March, April time.
Some previous non voters will non vote again, some will drift off to other parties.
If they poll 22% expect a max % of 17.6 in the election. A poll of 25% would lead me to anticipate a votes of 20%. Because they are the main protest party they are at the greatest risk of losing votes to other parties that are not seen a protest parties.
I would be amazed if they poll lower than 17%. There is a small chance that momentum goes ballistic and they get 25%+
The phenomenal rise in support for Ukip is underlined by a new Opinium/Observer poll which shows almost one-third of voters would be prepared to back Nigel Farage’s party if they believed it could win in their own constituency.
Tories and Lab now level in latest Op/Obs poll. Con 33 (up 5pts), Lab 33 (-2), Ukip 18 (+1), LD 6% (-3), Green and SNP both 4% (n/c).
Has Labour had it?
Of course, as I've being saying for three years. The only question is "by how much" they lose...
You have Rod, and few were listening. It was plain to me that Ed seemed unelectable but its not beyond the realms of possibility that ED will sneak in. UKIP could feck the Tories.
MofKent2014 Indeed, dull keeps you off the frontpages I suppose, though if you want some Latin Loving clearly one reason to join the LDs as popularity is clearly not a reason at present
Mark Oaten, Lembit Opek, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, Mike Hancock, 30 Conquests Clegg, Jeremy Thorpe, that P0rn film producer who they made a candidate in Medway in 2010. Hmmmm dull is good........
Not to mention Lord Melbourne, Lloyd George "the Goat", and Sir William Harcourt.
Mark Oaten, Lembit Opek, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, Mike Hancock, 30 Conquests Clegg, Jeremy Thorpe, that P0rn film producer who they made a candidate in Medway in 2010. Hmmmm dull is good........
Not to mention Lord Melbourne, Lloyd George "the Goat", and Sir William Harcourt.
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Somewhat counter intuitive, but is there a chance that a coherent and energised opposition would help the Tory party, by giving something to argue with and against? As the opposition is so poor are they dragging the other main party down with them?
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
It seems like neither party wants to win, they must know what's coming in the next few years.
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
Is that all, for the whole of England? By my calculations, that makes the Scottish Green Party proportionately the fourth largest party in the UK...
I know there's been a big leap in SNP membership recently but I think it bucks the trend - the days of judging the strength of a political party's support by how big its membership is are over.
People just don't sign up to things these days - they can get all their news, and have their say, online 24/7.
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
Then again, he probably knows a thing or two about Middle East "Peace"?
In the 2012 SY PCC election the Tories came ahead of UKIP. I guess they are now taking it as a given that they'll slump below the Kippers. And there was me thinking that the Conservative's polling position had improved since 2012.
Well you'd be wrong.
Going by the PB poll average, the change from September 2012 to September 2014 is:
Con -0.3 Lab -6.3 UKIP +7.6 LD -3.5 Others +2.5
Obviously, those are national figures rather than S Yorks specific but I doubt it's too different there.
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
There is a formal mechanism but it's incredibly convoluted and would require a special conference being called (IIRC). The only other mechanism would be to force him to resign by making his position untenable - but that would involve so much collateral damage as not to make it worthwhile.
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
It's also undeniable that he is as vain as a peacock and slippery as an eel. I never believe that current politicians regard any GE as "a good one to lose", because surely the worst 5 years in power beats the hell out of the best 5 years in opposition and if you thought differently you'd get out of politics altogether. But I can quite see Blair wanting Labour to lose - and trying to make that happen - because it would a. be good for the country, or b. be good for the party, or c. in some way present his legacy in a better light.
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
Plus the last leadership election took nearly 4 months. If the NEC went down that road it would leave Labour leaderless and in disarray in the run-up to the general election. The window for a resignation has long passed, methinks...
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
The fact that he's flatly denied it plus the fact that the story quotes an unnamed person quoting an unnamed second person claiming that he knows "what Tony thinks" has made the story look dubious. Generally, Tony has made a point of not commenting on British politics since he left office.
It is rumoured that David Cameron reads PB. Well, Dave if you are readingPB , this is my latest experience of trying to make an appt to see MY Doctor
...
cont p94
I live about 200 yards from my GP practice. If I ring at 8-30 when it opens for an emergency appointment it is constantly engaged, so I walk round instead. It is serene when I go round, no phones ringing or anything. Makes you wonder what is really going on.
I'd seriously advise SquareRoot to look at another doctor. I've asked a lot of people what their experience is and it varies wildly. My GP routinely takes appointments from next day up to two weeks ahead; others have had experiences like SquareRoot.
Oh yeah, Another poll with Labour below the magic 35%
...and the Conservatives below the magic 38?
It would be a different story if Priti was in charge...
Look at the trend.
Sleazy broken Labour on the slide, Virtuous brilliant Tories on the up, and the Lib Dems LOL.
It is all going to rest on what happens to the 8% Kipper share that goes back "home". If that breaks 2:1 Labour, Ed is in No. 10.
What makes you think it's going back home, wherever that is.
If the left are as arrogant as audreyanne then you are in for a shock.
Nothing to do with arrogance, although the term 'going back home' implies some sort of ownership.
I would suggest that UKIP will get votes that are about 20% below the peak VI opinion poll taken in March, April time.
Some previous non voters will non vote again, some will drift off to other parties.
If they poll 22% expect a max % of 17.6 in the election. A poll of 25% would lead me to anticipate a votes of 20%. Because they are the main protest party they are at the greatest risk of losing votes to other parties that are not seen a protest parties.
I would be amazed if they poll lower than 17%. There is a small chance that momentum goes ballistic and they get 25%+
Be prepared to be amazed, then. I reckon 15% plus or minus maybe 2% and maybe half a dozen seats if we are lucky.
Still that is a lot better than one poster on here who, in March of this year, bet me that UKIP would get less than 6% of the vote, thankfully it is a charity bet (with a bottle on the side) else I'd feel obliged to offer him terms.
Tories and Lab now level in latest Op/Obs poll. Con 33 (up 5pts), Lab 33 (-2), Ukip 18 (+1), LD 6% (-3), Green and SNP both 4% (n/c).
labours share has definitely diminished in the last few weeks across the pollsters. terminal decline??? EdMs chances of keeping a lead till may 2015 are fading fast
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
There is a formal mechanism but it's incredibly convoluted and would require a special conference being called (IIRC). The only other mechanism would be to force him to resign by making his position untenable - but that would involve so much collateral damage as not to make it worthwhile.
There is no formal mechanism to challenge an incumbent Labour leader. Simply falling on his sword doesn't get around the problem of Harman, either...
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
The real problem is there is no obvious replacement. Burnham and Balls were trounced in the leadership election. Darling almost lost Scotland. Old Blairite standard-bearers like Milburn, Purnell and David Miliband (although I was never really convinced he is a Blairite) are out of the Commons. The next generation has yet to make its mark. Labour, for good or ill, is stuck with Ed. TINA, as used to be said of the other lot.
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
Plus the last leadership election took nearly 4 months. If the NEC went down that road it would leave Labour leaderless and in disarray in the run-up to the general election. The window for a resignation has long passed, methinks...
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
Plus the last leadership election took nearly 4 months. If the NEC went down that road it would leave Labour leaderless and in disarray in the run-up to the general election. The window for a resignation has long passed, methinks...
To comment more generally - clearly the continuing rise of UKIP is pushing both major parties below 35 (I'd take Opinium's change to be a corrected bounce, but we'll see YG later), and it's hurting Labour slightly more at the moment, pushing the others into close to a tie on most polls. I'm now encountering some "left wing UKIP" voters who say they are socialists, feel Labour is too centrist, and UKIP is shaking things up: they say they don't really care about the detailed policies.
To balance that, we're seeing a lot of activist enthusiasm now - had 200 people at fund-raising rallies this week and canvassing activity is well up.
IMO Labour still has the edge on likely seat outcomes, but the kaleidoscope will get a good shake after Rochester. Regardless of our preferences, it's a fascinating time.
A few years ago Peter Kellner wrote that 20% of people would consider voting BNP in certain circumstances.
In that context, the fact that 31% might support UKIP isn't all that surprising.
This poll from 3 and half years ago was there for anyone with their eyes open and willing to see
"Huge numbers of Britons would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party if it was not associated with violence and fascist imagery, according to the largest survey into identity and extremism conducted in the UK.
A Populus poll found that 48% of the population would consider supporting a new anti-immigration party committed to challenging Islamist extremism, and would support policies to make it statutory for all public buildings to fly the flag of St George or the union flag
Anti-racism campaigners said the findings suggested Britain's mainstream parties were losing touch with public opinion on issues of identity and race."
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
The real problem is there is no obvious replacement. Burnham and Balls were trounced in the leadership election. Darling almost lost Scotland. Old Blairite standard-bearers like Milburn, Purnell and David Miliband (although I was never really convinced he is a Blairite) are out of the Commons. The next generation has yet to make its mark. Labour, for good or ill, is stuck with Ed. TINA, as used to be said of the other lot.
Purcell would be a good leader but I'm not sure he will ever leave the Third Sector now he has seen first hand how easy and lucrative it is
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
Plus the last leadership election took nearly 4 months. If the NEC went down that road it would leave Labour leaderless and in disarray in the run-up to the general election. The window for a resignation has long passed, methinks...
Talking about byelections have we got proper numbers from the Conservative Rochester primary yet and discovered who was organising it ?
Or should we consider it as 'open' as a Philippine election under Ferdinand Marcos ?
No we haven't. They won't reveal how many spoilt papers were received either.
Mark Reckless ran quite a good spoiler at the same time as the primary papers were sent out where he asked constituents for feedback on a major local issue ,the Lodge Hill development.Quite a lot of people seem to have responded to that so wouldn't be at all surprised if there were a significant number of spoilt papers in the primary.
Well, exactly. But they should have come clean about how many spoilt papers there were. Trying to hide it and expecting no-one to notice was a stupid thing to do IMO.
The second half of the Observer piece that @TheScreamingEagles links to is about the £1.7billion bill that Cameron may or may not pay by Dec 1st...
If UKIP win R&S as seems likely, could wannabe defectors use payment, or part payment of the bill as a "final straw" excuse 12 days later?
The 6/4 about two or more defectors should have moved in line with the increased likely hood of a Reckless victory, if not, I think it is a bet
Anything after December 1st gets dangerously close to the election. I'd have thought he could come to an arrangement with the Commission and the other member states to hold off paying until after the election in return for an understanding that he'll cough up after that. It's hard to see how they could agree to non-payment, but it wouldn't hurt anyone to set up a committee to spend six months looking into it and defer settlement until after it's reported.
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
The real problem is there is no obvious replacement. Burnham and Balls were trounced in the leadership election. Darling almost lost Scotland. Old Blairite standard-bearers like Milburn, Purnell and David Miliband (although I was never really convinced he is a Blairite) are out of the Commons. The next generation has yet to make its mark. Labour, for good or ill, is stuck with Ed. TINA, as used to be said of the other lot.
Purcell would be a good leader but I'm not sure he will ever leave the Third Sector now he has seen first hand how easy and lucrative it is
I wish he'd go back to composing. He had some good tunes...
Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.
Problem is there is no mechanism for getting rid of him, and if he simply resigned Harman would automatically become leader, dependent on the NEC deciding on what to do next...
The real problem is there is no obvious replacement. Burnham and Balls were trounced in the leadership election. Darling almost lost Scotland. Old Blairite standard-bearers like Milburn, Purnell and David Miliband (although I was never really convinced he is a Blairite) are out of the Commons. The next generation has yet to make its mark. Labour, for good or ill, is stuck with Ed. TINA, as used to be said of the other lot.
Purcell would be a good leader but I'm not sure he will ever leave the Third Sector now he has seen first hand how easy and lucrative it is
I wish he'd go back to composing. He had some good tunes...
Sorry, typo courtesy of Apple, bloody thing drives me mad
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
Of course he denied it on Twitter as soon as the Telegraph report was published.
Mark Oaten, Lembit Opek, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, Mike Hancock, 30 Conquests Clegg, Jeremy Thorpe, that P0rn film producer who they made a candidate in Medway in 2010. Hmmmm dull is good........
Not to mention Lord Melbourne, Lloyd George "the Goat", and Sir William Harcourt.
you mean Lewis Harcourt...
Lewis Harcourt dangerous with children for all the wrong reasons.
LLG had a reputation as a philanderer, 'hung like a donkey' according to one of his staff. Asquith was hardly a paragon of virtue, plenty of references about his extra curricular pursuits, but then Margot was so insufferable that it is hardly surprising that he looked elsewhere. I'm sure I read that D H Lawrence blundered into a naked or near naked ex PM at Garsington Manor, but I can't remember which book mentioned this.
It's amazing, at least to me, what little comment there has been on PB.com (especially at the editorial level) on Tony Blair's recently reported rubbishing of Labour's chances of winning next year's GE under Ed Miliband. People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
Of course he denied it on Twitter as soon as the Telegraph report was published.
And most people who know him think he is a pretty straight kind of tweeter?
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
Mark Oaten, Lembit Opek, Cyril Smith, Lord Rennard, Mike Hancock, 30 Conquests Clegg, Jeremy Thorpe, that P0rn film producer who they made a candidate in Medway in 2010. Hmmmm dull is good........
Not to mention Lord Melbourne, Lloyd George "the Goat", and Sir William Harcourt.
And of course I'd forgotten Chris Huhne and David Laws as well. Those Libdems sure know how to have 'fun' in the bedroom!
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
I don't think we need lectures from supporters of a party who seem to change their mind on what their immigration policy is on a weekly basis these days, who have been prevaricating over their EU aspirations for decades, who shortly before the last election announced they had no plans to raise VAT and then did so within weeks of taking power, a party who didn't even include same sex marriage proposals in their manifesto and who agreed to a referendum on AV after months of denouncing that very voting system. When Cameron's Tories stop pretending and are straight with people then and only then can their stooges start lecturing others about pretense! Incidentally what is Dan Hannan's view of the NHS these days? Still the same?
PS And Nuttall is right the NHS is treated like a sacred cow in Westminster which explains the wholly inadequate response by all the parties to the Mid Staffs tragedy!
A pretty desperate and confused defence. You may not like the evidence that attacks on UKIP over their NHS policies are valid, but tough. The point is its not a question of them being good or bad - its the point that if Nuttall is right then why is he trying to hide it from traditional labour supporters? The reality is this govt led by tories is actually doing something about opening up the NHS to priveate enterprise and is making £20 billion of efficiency savings. As well as taking hundreds of thousands of jobs out of the public sector. The response by the govt has not been wholy inadequate to Mid Staffs.
If UKIP were in a coalition how many of its policies would it have to compromise on (Its happy to sully itself with links to neo nazis in the Euro parliament). How is Farage's coalition with Carswell getting on BTW?
Did the tories campaign for or against AV? Same sex marriage? Again!? We already know how bigoted you lot are on that. It was in the tory manifesto. It gave a free vote.
I don't need lectures from supporters of a party whose MEP slags its own supporter as a ting tong and then laughs about it after, thank you very much. Or a supporter of a party who coseys up to a Polish neo nazi. Has Carswell commented on that yet? I don't need lectures beacause I know precisely what UKIP has become and who it is appealing to.
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
That'd be a really shitty thing to do!
And require the party you defect to not having a candidate, I would think.
In Australia they'd get rid of Ed if it was obvious he was going to lose, even a few weeks before the election. In this country we have to do this thing where everyone knows a party is going down to defeat but they have to keep the leader in place anyway, as with Foot, Kinnock, Hague, etc. Must be some weird type of masochism.
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
That'd be a really shitty thing to do!
In a by-election in the 90s, that's what a Lib Dem candidate did do, (defected to Labour)
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
That'd be a really shitty thing to do!
In a by-election in the 90s, that's what a Lib Dem candidate did do, (defected to Labour)
I think
Calling them a traitorous pig dog wouldn't do it justice.
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
That'd be a really shitty thing to do!
In a by-election in the 90s, that's what a Lib Dem candidate did do, (defected to Labour)
I think
Alec Kellaway at the Newham North East by-election in May 1994.
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
That'd be a really shitty thing to do!
In a by-election in the 90s, that's what a Lib Dem candidate do, (defected to Labour)
I think
Alec Kellaway at the Newham North East by-election in May 1994.
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
The more civilised thing to do would be to defect just before the election campaign so you only give the party a short time to select a new candidate.
Personally I can't see a problem with charging £10 for a doctor's visit. You pay £18 for a dental check up on the NHS and the world hasn't ended. Might solve the problem of overcrowded surgeries by deterring hypochondriacs and malingerers.A maximum charge of £100 per year similar to what is done on prescriptions would keep it fair with no charges for under 18s and means tested charge exemption for pensioners.
Probably also a good case for means testing free prescriptions for oap's too.
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
That'd be a really shitty thing to do!
In a by-election in the 90s, that's what a Lib Dem candidate did do, (defected to Labour)
I think
Calling them a traitorous pig dog wouldn't do it justice.
Indeed, we need a new insult for that level of betrayal.
I had an insult prepared had a Tory MP defected on the day of Dave's conference speech
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
The more civilised thing to do would be to defect just before the election campaign so you only give the party a short time to select a new candidate.
Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?
That'd be a really shitty thing to do!
In a by-election in the 90s, that's what a Lib Dem candidate did do, (defected to Labour)
I think
Alec Kellaway at the Newham North East by-election in May 1994.
Just told Mrs scrap that tories are level in two polls tonight, she was appalled, how can labour be doing that well? Have had to explain labour has been in lead for years... I feel shocked at this polling ignorance... there could be others out there who aren't following polls. Scary stuff
UKIP is to make a serious attempt to win 100 seats at next year’s general election and will try to oust even Eurosceptic Tories.
At a strategy meeting last week, senior party figures agreed to field candidates in every seat — and run serious campaigns in 100 of them — and not give a free ride to MPs who want to leave the EU. The decision was backed by Douglas Carswell, who became Ukip’s first elected MP earlier this month after defecting from the Tories.
Paul Sykes, the party’s biggest donor, is prepared to give more than £1.5m to help fund the campaign. “We want to make it absolutely clear that we are not interested in behind-the-scenes deals with other parties, all of whom are committed to our continued membership of the failing European Union,” said the party leader, Nigel Farage. “We will not be doing grubby deals.”
Comments
But the fact is that Nuttal has said - "that the very existence of the NHS stifles competition .... as long as the NHS is the 'sacred cow' of British politics, the longer the British people will suffer with a second rate health service". Niuttal's withdrawn those comments from the web - but the fact is thats what he thinks. Its probably one of the more printable things that he actually really thinks.
Also, their health spokesman de jour said that if you are deemed not an urgent ER case you can pay to avoid waiting and if you are not registered with a GP you would be charged to see one.
Again you may or not agree but thats whats been said.
Farage has also said in the Telegraph that there should be cuts to NHS spending and that big business should run it.
This may be good or bad. But thats what he said. The point is he soft peddles that view when he talks to working class voters NHS friendly voters.
So stop pretending
Tories and Lab now level in latest Op/Obs poll. Con 33 (up 5pts), Lab 33 (-2), Ukip 18 (+1), LD 6% (-3), Green and SNP both 4% (n/c).
(Anna Lo in NI was the first to be elected to any assembly)
Combined Con-UKIP total at 51 looks high - combined Con-Lab at 66 pretty much in line though higher than Ashcroft.
PS And Nuttall is right the NHS is treated like a sacred cow in Westminster which explains the wholly inadequate response by all the parties to the Mid Staffs tragedy!
There's been some activity, I think Labour are hoping that no Lib Dem candidate is a boost for them.
The Tory candidate has been doing local TV and radio, the UKIP candidate isn't impressive and he's an ex South Yorks copper.
Interestingly, Ian Walker, the Tory candidate has made a big play of the Labour candidate being the second choice last time.
Speaking to some Labour activist prior to today's intervention, they said if UKIP did something like this, it might galvanise the Lab support to turnout
I'm loathe to call an election with a pisspoor turnout on a cold October night.
But I won't be putting my money on a Lab victory, but I won't be surprised if they squeak home.
It would be a different story if Priti was in charge...
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lib-dem-supporters-most-adventurous-4502296
Sleazy broken Labour on the slide, Virtuous brilliant Tories on the up, and the Lib Dems LOL.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Thynn,_7th_Marquess_of_Bath
"a prolific amateur painter who has decorated rooms of his home with erotic scenes from the Kama Sutra, among other sources of inspiration. He has openly had sexual relations with over 70 women during his marriage, and has installed many of them in estate cottages. He refers to these women as wifelets."
If the left are as arrogant as audreyanne then you are in for a shock.
Foot lost by 15%
Hague by 9%
Miliband?
I can't quite believe that there would be that much apathy given the crimes and the resultant publicity. A good, sharp PCC might be able to apply pointed pressure to the police and local councils, something that is obviously needed.
It's why I'm staggered that UKIP have chosen an ex-inspector from that very force. A terrible choice.
But if the good people of South Yorkshire vote for a Labour PPC once again, then they need their heads testing.
I would suggest that UKIP will get votes that are about 20% below the peak VI opinion poll taken in March, April time.
Some previous non voters will non vote again, some will drift off to other parties.
If they poll 22% expect a max % of 17.6 in the election. A poll of 25% would lead me to anticipate a votes of 20%. Because they are the main protest party they are at the greatest risk of losing votes to other parties that are not seen a protest parties.
I would be amazed if they poll lower than 17%. There is a small chance that momentum goes ballistic and they get 25%+
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/25/nearly-third-of-voters-prepared-to-support-ukip?CMP=twt_gu
And the Hammers beat Citeh earlier on today
People may dislike Blair, some intensely so, but it's surely undeniable that he probably knows more about winning General Elections in this country than any other living soul.
People just don't sign up to things these days - they can get all their news, and have their say, online 24/7.
If UKIP win R&S as seems likely, could wannabe defectors use payment, or part payment of the bill as a "final straw" excuse 12 days later?
The 6/4 about two or more defectors should have moved in line with the increased likely hood of a Reckless victory, if not, I think it is a bet
Going by the PB poll average, the change from September 2012 to September 2014 is:
Con -0.3
Lab -6.3
UKIP +7.6
LD -3.5
Others +2.5
Obviously, those are national figures rather than S Yorks specific but I doubt it's too different there.
Just kidding about a. and b., obviously.
8/11 now, I am half tempted to back Labour at 15/8
I spoke to the UKIP blokes at Clacton and they reckon someone they know has had £30k on UKIP
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/25/tony-blair-labour-loses-election-ed-miliband I'd seriously advise SquareRoot to look at another doctor. I've asked a lot of people what their experience is and it varies wildly. My GP routinely takes appointments from next day up to two weeks ahead; others have had experiences like SquareRoot.
Still that is a lot better than one poster on here who, in March of this year, bet me that UKIP would get less than 6% of the vote, thankfully it is a charity bet (with a bottle on the side) else I'd feel obliged to offer him terms.
In that context, the fact that 31% might support UKIP isn't all that surprising.
To balance that, we're seeing a lot of activist enthusiasm now - had 200 people at fund-raising rallies this week and canvassing activity is well up.
IMO Labour still has the edge on likely seat outcomes, but the kaleidoscope will get a good shake after Rochester. Regardless of our preferences, it's a fascinating time.
"Huge numbers of Britons would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party if it was not associated with violence and fascist imagery, according to the largest survey into identity and extremism conducted in the UK.
A Populus poll found that 48% of the population would consider supporting a new anti-immigration party committed to challenging Islamist extremism, and would support policies to make it statutory for all public buildings to fly the flag of St George or the union flag
Anti-racism campaigners said the findings suggested Britain's mainstream parties were losing touch with public opinion on issues of identity and race."
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
the reports indicated he was speaking sotto voce (in vino veritas?)
LLG had a reputation as a philanderer, 'hung like a donkey' according to one of his staff. Asquith was hardly a paragon of virtue, plenty of references about his extra curricular pursuits, but then Margot was so insufferable that it is hardly surprising that he looked elsewhere. I'm sure I read that D H Lawrence blundered into a naked or near naked ex PM at Garsington Manor, but I can't remember which book mentioned this.
National Opinion Poll (YouGov):
CON - 33% (-1)
LAB - 33% (-1)
UKIP - 16% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (+1)
GRN - 6% (=)
I think
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newham_North_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Probably also a good case for means testing free prescriptions for oap's too.
I had an insult prepared had a Tory MP defected on the day of Dave's conference speech
A Tory lead by January is what I forecast (about 18 months ago).
UKIP is to make a serious attempt to win 100 seats at next year’s general election and will try to oust even Eurosceptic Tories.
At a strategy meeting last week, senior party figures agreed to field candidates in every seat — and run serious campaigns in 100 of them — and not give a free ride to MPs who want to leave the EU. The decision was backed by Douglas Carswell, who became Ukip’s first elected MP earlier this month after defecting from the Tories.
Paul Sykes, the party’s biggest donor, is prepared to give more than £1.5m to help fund the campaign. “We want to make it absolutely clear that we are not interested in behind-the-scenes deals with other parties, all of whom are committed to our continued membership of the failing European Union,” said the party leader, Nigel Farage. “We will not be doing grubby deals.”