politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour could be in trouble in the South Yorkshire PCC by-el

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour could be in trouble in the South Yorkshire PCC by-election

Over the past few days I’ve had a couple of reports about UKIP in Thursday’s South Yorkshire PCC by-election. This is, of course, traditional solid LAB territory where the party wins Westminster seats on low turnout easily without any real effort. Things could be different on Thursday.

Read the full story here

Morris_Dancer

It would not be hugely surprising. South Yorkshire police were on the news again yesterday, being lambasted for the way they mishandled the search of Cliff Richard's house.

TCPoliticalBetting

Good, it is time politicians were also held to account and the PCC idea only works if someone promises to tackle the police over its massive failures.

MikeK

3rd.. Yes, good poster first saw on twitter an hour ago. UKIP gearing up for battle, all we need now are lots of boots on ground.

david_herdson

Sounds like a reasonable move. In addition to Rotherham, S Yorks covers:

Sheffield, where similar allegations of police mishandling of abuse were raised this week:

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/south-yorkshire-police-under-fire-for-handling-of-sheffield-child-abuse-cases-1-6911187

Doncaster, where Labour has had a particularly difficult time over the last decade,

And Barnsley, where UKIP secured their first-ever second place in a Westminster by-election and their then-highest ever share of the vote, after Eric Ilsley was jailed for expenses fraud.

AndreaParma_82

Yes, they should be in trouble. I would be surprised if they win after they barely won Heywood and Middleton and how the abuse scandal can affect them even more here.

FWIW
2014 Euro in South Yorkshire

Lab 114,068 - 34.4%
UKIP 110,383 - 33.3%
Con 38,234 - 11.5%
LD 18,653 - 5.6%


2014 locals in South Yorkshire boroughs

Lab 39.94
UKIP 27.76 (they missed some wards in Barnsley)
Con 9.94
LD 8.54
Greens 5.95

SouthamObserver

Hard to see how Labour will avoid a very well deserved kicking.

It will also be good to see how an elected UKIP official performs in office.

AndreaParma_82

UKIP candidate is a former policeman who won a seat on Sheffield council in May
Labour candidate is a retired anglican priest who has been Sheffield council deputy leader in the glory days of the Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire

SandyRentool

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

MarkHopkins

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

It was only pointless if Labour automatically won.

With a rival to challenge and show up shortcomings in the police, then it rather proves that elected PCCs have a point.

another_richard

It should be a low turnout election and will come down to which side gets its vote out.

Labour's vote will consist of:

1) Residual wwc "our family's always been Labour, they're the party of the working class" heritage type voters.

2) Middle class anti-UKIP types consisting of (a) middle class Labour and (b) Establishment Tories using the SV system.

3) People with a vested interest in things being kept covered up consisting of (a) people employed in police, local councils etc with something to hide, (b) establishment party supporters, both Labour and Conservative, who worry what will emerge if there's ever a proper investigation and (c) a significant proportion of the Muslim community.

UKIP's vote will consist of:

1) Anti-Labour voters

2) Disaffected wwc

3) Law and order enthusiasts

david_herdson

AndreaParma_82 said:

Yes, they should be in trouble. I would be surprised if they win after they barely won Heywood and Middleton and how the abuse scandal can affect them even more here.

FWIW
2014 Euro in South Yorkshire

Lab 114,068 - 34.4%
UKIP 110,383 - 33.3%
Con 38,234 - 11.5%
LD 18,653 - 5.6%


2014 locals in South Yorkshire boroughs

Lab 39.94
UKIP 27.76 (they missed some wards in Barnsley)
Con 9.94
LD 8.54
Greens 5.95

Also, the voting system is against them, being SV rather than FPTP. If I had a vote (and I don't by only about 2 miles), I'd vote Con 1st preference, UKIP 2nd. I imagine many other Tories will do likewise and that UKIP will pick up other transfers from the English Democrats to their right. Labour, by contrast, won't do so well. I'd reckon on them needing at least 42% first preferences and a lead of at least 10% to win.

Peter_the_Punter

In the circumstances it would be a surprise if the voters didn't punish the incumbent Party, and UKIP look the obvious choice for the dissident vote.

I'm on at 2/1 and don't want any more on what is a race with very little form to guide us, but common sense suggests a UKIP win.

SandyRentool

MarkHopkins said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

It was only pointless if Labour automatically won.

With a rival to challenge and show up shortcomings in the police, then it rather proves that elected PCCs have a point.

Since the shortcomings of SY police are clear to us all without the intervention of the former PCC, I don't think that argument holds. Where else in the country are the PCCs pointing a spotlight at the dodgy side of the local constabulary?

TCPoliticalBetting

MarkHopkins said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

It was only pointless if Labour automatically won.
With a rival to challenge and show up shortcomings in the police, then it rather proves that elected PCCs have a point.

True.

another_richard

SouthamObserver said:

Hard to see how Labour will avoid a very well deserved kicking.

It will also be good to see how an elected UKIP official performs in office.

You should get on UKIP at odds against then.

But its not hard to see Labour winning.

Turnout will be low and there are many thousands of people with a vested interest in nothing changing.

I wouldn't expect much from the UKIP candidate if he's elected. He seems quite an establishment character himself and if he tries to change anything he'll be undermined from within. The South Yorkshire plods have for a long time been regarded as not exemplars of their profession to put it mildly.

felix

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

Typical Labour response - no democracy except when we're guaranteed to win.

Itajai

But...but...but...the ad is so unfair and below the belt.

I expect Labour to come out bleating how the ad is extremist, racist, blah balh blah.
Will the Beeb cover the ad? Probably not, just in case the hoi polli don't vote PC.

another_richard

david_herdson said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Yes, they should be in trouble. I would be surprised if they win after they barely won Heywood and Middleton and how the abuse scandal can affect them even more here.

FWIW
2014 Euro in South Yorkshire

Lab 114,068 - 34.4%
UKIP 110,383 - 33.3%
Con 38,234 - 11.5%
LD 18,653 - 5.6%


2014 locals in South Yorkshire boroughs

Lab 39.94
UKIP 27.76 (they missed some wards in Barnsley)
Con 9.94
LD 8.54
Greens 5.95

Also, the voting system is against them, being SV rather than FPTP. If I had a vote (and I don't by only about 2 miles), I'd vote Con 1st preference, UKIP 2nd. I imagine many other Tories will do likewise

You might but TSE has said he wont.

In fact I expect him to put Labour as his second choice.

There's no way of proving that though or for him to prove that he wont ;-)

How's life in a Hemsworth pit village BTW ? Which ward do you vote in now ?

SandyRentool

felix said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

Typical Labour response - no democracy except when we're guaranteed to win.

I said the same before the PCC elections in 2012 - whether Labour, Tory or Independent, the PCCs should be got rid of. I think I've heard our guy twice on local media since he was elected - twice in two years, what's the point?

JosiasJessop

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

What would you replace them with? The police authorities they replaced hardly did a good job, did they? Unelected and unaccountable to the public (despite having 'independent members', many of whom were magistrates), yet curiously unable or unwilling to press the police on some of these abuses.

If the police authorities had done a proper job, then hideous crimes such as Rotherham, Rochdale etc would have been nipped in the bud much sooner. The question has to be asked why they did not.

Maybe elected PCCs will be worse. But with the stories of past abuses coming out at the moment, that is hard to imagine.

(As an aside, how many chief constables and depute chief constables are currently suspended from duty around the country?)

SandyRentool

JJ - well off the top of my head, the Chief Constable could report to the MPs in their patch, and they could have the power to hire and fire him/her.

As for suspensions - Cleveland is a shambles. The force should be disbanded, and the area split between Durham and North Yoks (in line with pre-1974 boundaries).

Paul_Mid_Beds

I'm sure there will be similar posters to this before the 2015 general election, along with similar adverts showing disgruntled Welsh patients with Dailymail "Sadfaces" warning that if Labour win and you become ill, be afraid, be very afraid.

Is there a market on Labour getting a lower share on the vote than they did in 1983?

another_richard

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

What would you replace them with? The police authorities they replaced hardly did a good job, did they? Unelected and unaccountable to the public (despite having 'independent members', many of whom were magistrates), yet curiously unable or unwilling to press the police on some of these abuses.

If the police authorities had done a proper job, then hideous crimes such as Rotherham, Rochdale etc would have been nipped in the bud much sooner. The question has to be asked why they did not.

Maybe elected PCCs will be worse. But with the stories of past abuses coming out at the moment, that is hard to imagine.

(As an aside, how many chief constables and depute chief constables are currently suspended from duty around the country?)

And how many more would be suspended from duty if everything was known about ?

I wonder if these sorts of contract are still being given out as standard to plod fatcats:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2145807/Disgraced-chief-constable-Graham-Maxwell-gets--250-000-golden-goodbye.html

nigel4england

Itajai said:

But...but...but...the ad is so unfair and below the belt.

I expect Labour to come out bleating how the ad is extremist, racist, blah balh blah.
Will the Beeb cover the ad? Probably not, just in case the hoi polli don't vote PC.

Not sure Labour bleating will go down well locally, it would be viewed as proving they don't care about the victims.

Paul_Mid_Beds

That didn't take very long. :-)

"UKIP condemned for “vile” poster criticising Labour for Rotherham child abuse scandal"

http://descrier.co.uk/politics/ukip-condemned-vile-poster-criticising-labour-rotherham-child-abuse-scandal/

edmundintokyo

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

What would you replace them with? The police authorities they replaced hardly did a good job, did they? Unelected and unaccountable to the public (despite having 'independent members', many of whom were magistrates), yet curiously unable or unwilling to press the police on some of these abuses.

If the police authorities had done a proper job, then hideous crimes such as Rotherham, Rochdale etc would have been nipped in the bud much sooner. The question has to be asked why they did not.

Maybe elected PCCs will be worse. But with the stories of past abuses coming out at the moment, that is hard to imagine.

(As an aside, how many chief constables and depute chief constables are currently suspended from duty around the country?)

Have them run by the counties. People know what county they're in and they're already electing a tier of government to run it.

If the counties are currently too small to run their police forces efficiently, merge them together to make them the right size.

RodCrosby

The LibDems aren't standing, and the Labour candidate is in favour of abolishing PCCs!

nigel4england

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

I'm sure there will be similar posters to this before the 2015 general election, along with similar adverts showing disgruntled Welsh patients with Dailymail "Sadfaces" warning that if Labour win and you become ill, be afraid, be very afraid.

Is there a market on Labour getting a lower share on the vote than they did in 1983?

Funniest of all would be if the WWC turn out against Labour in real force and both Ed's lost their seat

RodCrosby

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

That didn't take very long. :-)

"UKIP condemned for “vile” poster criticising Labour for Rotherham child abuse scandal"

http://descrier.co.uk/politics/ukip-condemned-vile-poster-criticising-labour-rotherham-child-abuse-scandal/

I hope they use it in the GE too!

SandyRentool

RodCrosby said:

The LibDems aren't standing, and the Labour candidate is in favour of abolishing PCCs!

So with no LD candidate, someone should ask Nick Clegg who he will be voting for!

anotherDave

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

What would you replace them with? The police authorities they replaced hardly did a good job, did they? Unelected and unaccountable to the public (despite having 'independent members', many of whom were magistrates), yet curiously unable or unwilling to press the police on some of these abuses.

If the police authorities had done a proper job, then hideous crimes such as Rotherham, Rochdale etc would have been nipped in the bud much sooner. The question has to be asked why they did not.

Maybe elected PCCs will be worse. But with the stories of past abuses coming out at the moment, that is hard to imagine.

(As an aside, how many chief constables and depute chief constables are currently suspended from duty around the country?)

One suggestion before the 2010 election was to bring back "watch committees" of local councillors,

http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/britains-police-forces-forever-removed-from-democratic-control

david_herdson

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

What would you replace them with? The police authorities they replaced hardly did a good job, did they? Unelected and unaccountable to the public (despite having 'independent members', many of whom were magistrates), yet curiously unable or unwilling to press the police on some of these abuses.

If the police authorities had done a proper job, then hideous crimes such as Rotherham, Rochdale etc would have been nipped in the bud much sooner. The question has to be asked why they did not.

Maybe elected PCCs will be worse. But with the stories of past abuses coming out at the moment, that is hard to imagine.

(As an aside, how many chief constables and depute chief constables are currently suspended from duty around the country?)

One suggestion before the 2010 election was to bring back "watch committees" of local councillors,

http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/britains-police-forces-forever-removed-from-democratic-control

Completely unaccountable, as anyone who's ever been on a Council knows. The appointments are made by party whips and as most Force areas cover more than one council, there's no executive oversight, nor any meaningful feedback to councils from their nominees, never mind useful questioning.

For all their faults, it's far too early to say that PCC's are failures. On the contrary, I'd suggest that the whinging coming from the vested interests suggests that they're well-set to be a useful addition to the democratic armoury. That doesn't mean there won't be failings: there will. But just as some bad MPs doesn't undermine parliamentary democracy, nor should a bad PCC undermine that system.

stodge

edmundintokyo said:

Have them run by the counties. People know what county they're in and they're already electing a tier of government to run it.

If the counties are currently too small to run their police forces efficiently, merge them together to make them the right size.

That's how it used to be. The County Council would for example manage and maintain Police property (stations, police houses and the like)

All that was transferred lock, stock and cell to the new Police Authorities in the 90s if memory serves. These organisations work with all the other public bodies in their areas but are independent of them.

AndyJS

Perfect conditions for UKIP, they ought to win. Depends whether LDs and Tories in Sheffield vote Labour to stop them which seems a bit unlikely IMO.

MonikerDiCanio

Unforgettable poster about Labour's unforgivable record in South Yorkshire.

another_richard

SandyRentool said:

RodCrosby said:

The LibDems aren't standing, and the Labour candidate is in favour of abolishing PCCs!

So with no LD candidate, someone should ask Nick Clegg who he will be voting for!

I'm not sure he would have a vote.

IIRC Clegg sold his Sheffield house shortly after the last general election.

From what I've heard he's not been seen much since.

david_herdson

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Yes, they should be in trouble. I would be surprised if they win after they barely won Heywood and Middleton and how the abuse scandal can affect them even more here.

FWIW
2014 Euro in South Yorkshire

Lab 114,068 - 34.4%
UKIP 110,383 - 33.3%
Con 38,234 - 11.5%
LD 18,653 - 5.6%


2014 locals in South Yorkshire boroughs

Lab 39.94
UKIP 27.76 (they missed some wards in Barnsley)
Con 9.94
LD 8.54
Greens 5.95

Also, the voting system is against them, being SV rather than FPTP. If I had a vote (and I don't by only about 2 miles), I'd vote Con 1st preference, UKIP 2nd. I imagine many other Tories will do likewise

You might but TSE has said he wont.

In fact I expect him to put Labour as his second choice.

There's no way of proving that though or for him to prove that he wont ;-)

How's life in a Hemsworth pit village BTW ? Which ward do you vote in now ?

I don't live in a "Hemsworth pit village", pleasant though some of them are (though I did briefly - Ryhill). I'm now in Wakefield Rural ward, within Wakefield constituency.

SandyRentool

While attention has focused on Canada this week for other reasons, I've just noticed that a new political party has been formed...

www.forcesetdemocratie.org

Bad news for BQ?

JohnO

david_herdson said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

I urge all voters in South Yorks to boycott this pointless election for a pointless job. The sooner the PCCs are got rid of the better.

Sub-10% turnout on the cards?

What would you replace them with? The police authorities they replaced hardly did a good job, did they? Unelected and unaccountable to the public (despite having 'independent members', many of whom were magistrates), yet curiously unable or unwilling to press the police on some of these abuses.

If the police authorities had done a proper job, then hideous crimes such as Rotherham, Rochdale etc would have been nipped in the bud much sooner. The question has to be asked why they did not.

Maybe elected PCCs will be worse. But with the stories of past abuses coming out at the moment, that is hard to imagine.

(As an aside, how many chief constables and depute chief constables are currently suspended from duty around the country?)

One suggestion before the 2010 election was to bring back "watch committees" of local councillors,

http://www.historyandpolicy.org/policy-papers/papers/britains-police-forces-forever-removed-from-democratic-control

Completely unaccountable, as anyone who's ever been on a Council knows. The appointments are made by party whips and as most Force areas cover more than one council, there's no executive oversight, nor any meaningful feedback to councils from their nominees, never mind useful questioning.

For all their faults, it's far too early to say that PCC's are failures. On the contrary, I'd suggest that the whinging coming from the vested interests suggests that they're well-set to be a useful addition to the democratic armoury. That doesn't mean there won't be failings: there will. But just as some bad MPs doesn't undermine parliamentary democracy, nor should a bad PCC undermine that system.

I'm possibly the only poster here who sits on a Police and Crime Panel which oversees (albeit with few powers; we should have more) the Commissioner and whom we meet regularly. I wholeheartedly agree with David. The system is not perfect but it far excels the previous Police Authorities in promoting direct and democratic accountability to residents, and overall supervision of the police force in the county.

NickPalmer

I was asking about this campaign the other day as it hasn't had much attention. Can TSE or others living there say what they've seen of it - what leaflets etc.?

SouthamObserver

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Yes, they should be in trouble. I would be surprised if they win after they barely won Heywood and Middleton and how the abuse scandal can affect them even more here.

FWIW
2014 Euro in South Yorkshire

Lab 114,068 - 34.4%
UKIP 110,383 - 33.3%
Con 38,234 - 11.5%
LD 18,653 - 5.6%


2014 locals in South Yorkshire boroughs

Lab 39.94
UKIP 27.76 (they missed some wards in Barnsley)
Con 9.94
LD 8.54
Greens 5.95

Also, the voting system is against them, being SV rather than FPTP. If I had a vote (and I don't by only about 2 miles), I'd vote Con 1st preference, UKIP 2nd. I imagine many other Tories will do likewise

You might but TSE has said he wont.

In fact I expect him to put Labour as his second choice.

There's no way of proving that though or for him to prove that he wont ;-)

How's life in a Hemsworth pit village BTW ? Which ward do you vote in now ?

I don't live in a "Hemsworth pit village", pleasant though some of them are (though I did briefly - Ryhill). I'm now in Wakefield Rural ward, within Wakefield constituency.

Lovely part of the world. I have spent many happy hours in many fine pubs drinking top class beers up in Wakey.

AndyJS

The open primary to select the Conservative candidate in Boston & Skegness is taking place this afternoon:

http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/conservative-candidate-for-2015-election-to-be-decided-1-6378441

another_richard

NickPalmer said:

I was asking about this campaign the other day as it hasn't had much attention. Can TSE or others living there say what they've seen of it - what leaflets etc.?

Are you saying you haven't noticed my reports on the leaflets received ?

To recap:

Labour - no mention of Rotherham but multiple mentions of ... Thatcher. Attacks on UKIP.

Conservative - a CV for the candidate more than an election leaflet. No mention of Rotherham

UKIP - received last but surprisingly professional with bar graph and explanation of SV system

EDP - nothing received

Only thing in the media I've noticed was a a few soundbites on the radio from the UKIP candidate a few weeks ago. Uninspiring summed him up, he did not sound like a man to shake the system up.

SouthamObserver

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

Hard to see how Labour will avoid a very well deserved kicking.

It will also be good to see how an elected UKIP official performs in office.

You should get on UKIP at odds against then.

But its not hard to see Labour winning.

Turnout will be low and there are many thousands of people with a vested interest in nothing changing.

I wouldn't expect much from the UKIP candidate if he's elected. He seems quite an establishment character himself and if he tries to change anything he'll be undermined from within. The South Yorkshire plods have for a long time been regarded as not exemplars of their profession to put it mildly.

The odds on UKIP do seem very generous. Put it this way, if UKIP can't win this one do they have any chance of taking seats from Labour in a GE?

another_richard

I can imagine that it might be very bad for EdM if Labour lose:

Personal humiliation for him in area he 'represents' - if UKIP win then they'll be ahead in Doncaster North constituency.

Gives boost to UKIP among heritage Labour wwc.

Negative momentum on Labour in Rochester.

Give publicity to an issue Labour don't want publicised.

Risk that a UKIP PCC might reveal something which Labour want hidden.

beast_in_black

You have got to hand it to UKIP, it doesnt matter if you agree or disagree with the content, they have some backbone!

AndreaParma_82

I am pretty sure I've seen a Labour Rose special PCC edition saying the Labour will save the NHS

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

I was asking about this campaign the other day as it hasn't had much attention. Can TSE or others living there say what they've seen of it - what leaflets etc.?

Are you saying you haven't noticed my reports on the leaflets received ?

To recap:

Labour - no mention of Rotherham but multiple mentions of ... Thatcher. Attacks on UKIP.

Conservative - a CV for the candidate more than an election leaflet. No mention of Rotherham

UKIP - received last but surprisingly professional with bar graph and explanation of SV system

EDP - nothing received

Only thing in the media I've noticed was a a few soundbites on the radio from the UKIP candidate a few weeks ago. Uninspiring summed him up, he did not sound like a man to shake the system up.

AndreaParma_82

Apparently it's a tie in the last round
https://twitter.com/StandardDaniel

AndyJS said:

The open primary to select the Conservative candidate in Boston & Skegness is taking place this afternoon:

http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/conservative-candidate-for-2015-election-to-be-decided-1-6378441

AndreaParma_82

PCC candidates' debate...if you really want to listen to it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCa11336Aiw

Paul_Mid_Beds

AndreaParma_82 said:

I am pretty sure I've seen a Labour Rose special PCC edition saying the Labour will save the NHS

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

I was asking about this campaign the other day as it hasn't had much attention. Can TSE or others living there say what they've seen of it - what leaflets etc.?

Are you saying you haven't noticed my reports on the leaflets received ?

To recap:

Labour - no mention of Rotherham but multiple mentions of ... Thatcher. Attacks on UKIP.

Conservative - a CV for the candidate more than an election leaflet. No mention of Rotherham

UKIP - received last but surprisingly professional with bar graph and explanation of SV system

EDP - nothing received

Only thing in the media I've noticed was a a few soundbites on the radio from the UKIP candidate a few weeks ago. Uninspiring summed him up, he did not sound like a man to shake the system up.

Lol rotfl


Exquisite timing from the Labour campaign team. Anyone been reading the Mail this week?

SimonStClare

“There are 1400 reasons why you should not trust Labour again.”

That's quite a poster by UKiP - Powerful.

Paul_Mid_Beds

beast_in_black said:

You have got to hand it to UKIP, it doesnt matter if you agree or disagree with the content, they have some backbone!

Something missing from UK politics since December 1990.

felix

AndreaParma_82 said:

I am pretty sure I've seen a Labour Rose special PCC edition saying the Labour will save the NHS

another_richard said:

NickPalmer said:

I was asking about this campaign the other day as it hasn't had much attention. Can TSE or others living there say what they've seen of it - what leaflets etc.?

Are you saying you haven't noticed my reports on the leaflets received ?

To recap:

Labour - no mention of Rotherham but multiple mentions of ... Thatcher. Attacks on UKIP.

Conservative - a CV for the candidate more than an election leaflet. No mention of Rotherham

UKIP - received last but surprisingly professional with bar graph and explanation of SV system

EDP - nothing received

Only thing in the media I've noticed was a a few soundbites on the radio from the UKIP candidate a few weeks ago. Uninspiring summed him up, he did not sound like a man to shake the system up.

Rofl -Wtf has a PCC election to do with the NHS. Utterly pathetic.

AndreaParma_82

Matt Warman wins Boston and Skegness Conservative nomination

AndreaParma_82

that's what the doctor ordered! You should always listen to the doctor.
http://rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/labours-pcc-candidate-literature/

felix said:

Rofl -Wtf has a PCC election to do with the NHS. Utterly pathetic.

Artist

AndreaParma_82 said:

Matt Warman wins Boston and Skegness Conservative nomination

A London based journalist..

UKIP would be even stupider to pick someone like Neil Hamilton now.

AndreaParma_82

Alan Mak wins Conservative selection in Havant

http://www.alanmak.org.uk/

1) Alan Mak 2) Michael McManus 3) Charlotte Vere 4) Chris Hayward

anotherDave

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

beast_in_black said:

You have got to hand it to UKIP, it doesnt matter if you agree or disagree with the content, they have some backbone!

Something missing from UK politics since December 1990.

I read Norman Tebbit's auto-biography earlier this week. Had a lovely 'what if' daydream where he wasn't caught up in the Brighton bomb, saved Mrs T in 1990, and then succeeded her has PM in 1997. :-)

richardDodd

A brilliant poster from UKIP in Rotherham..telling the brutal truth about Labours failings..

anotherDave

Artist said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Matt Warman wins Boston and Skegness Conservative nomination

A London based journalist..

UKIP would be even stupider to pick someone like Neil Hamilton now.

There were only 80 voters at that meeting.

twitter.com/StandardDaniel/status/526038675038412800

stodge

anotherDave said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

beast_in_black said:

You have got to hand it to UKIP, it doesnt matter if you agree or disagree with the content, they have some backbone!

Something missing from UK politics since December 1990.

I read Norman Tebbit's auto-biography earlier this week. Had a lovely 'what if' daydream where he wasn't caught up in the Brighton bomb, saved Mrs T in 1990, and then succeeded her has PM in 1997. :-)

Please spare us the return of the unreconstructed Thatcherites !!

Had Margaret Thatcher survived the MPs putsch in November 1990, there's little doubt in my mind she'd have led the Conservatives to defeat in November 1991 or early 1992. The extent to which she had become "TBW" after 1987 isn't appreciated by her acolytes.

felix

AndreaParma_82 said:

that's what the doctor ordered! You should always listen to the doctor.
http://rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/labours-pcc-candidate-literature/

felix said:

Rofl -Wtf has a PCC election to do with the NHS. Utterly pathetic.

To be fair the main piece there is about child grooming and therefore makes your post pretty stupid.

anotherDave

stodge said:

anotherDave said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

beast_in_black said:

You have got to hand it to UKIP, it doesnt matter if you agree or disagree with the content, they have some backbone!

Something missing from UK politics since December 1990.

I read Norman Tebbit's auto-biography earlier this week. Had a lovely 'what if' daydream where he wasn't caught up in the Brighton bomb, saved Mrs T in 1990, and then succeeded her has PM in 1997. :-)

Please spare us the return of the unreconstructed Thatcherites !!

Had Margaret Thatcher survived the MPs putsch in November 1990, there's little doubt in my mind she'd have led the Conservatives to defeat in November 1991 or early 1992. The extent to which she had become "TBW" after 1987 isn't appreciated by her acolytes.

Around the time of Mrs T's funeral Mori released some historical trackers. Her numbers, and the Conservatives numbers were on the up before they kicked out.

AndyJS

AndreaParma_82 said:

Matt Warman wins Boston and Skegness Conservative nomination

Matt Warman is the Daily Telegraph's technology editor:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/matt-warman/
https://twitter.com/mattwarman

AndyJS

AndreaParma_82 said:

Alan Mak wins Conservative selection in Havant

http://www.alanmak.org.uk/

1) Alan Mak 2) Michael McManus 3) Charlotte Vere 4) Chris Hayward

He's on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background, (not that I personally care about details of that sort).

edmundintokyo

anotherDave said:

Artist said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Matt Warman wins Boston and Skegness Conservative nomination

A London based journalist..

UKIP would be even stupider to pick someone like Neil Hamilton now.

There were only 80 voters at that meeting.

twitter.com/StandardDaniel/status/526038675038412800

81, but one went home.

It appears to have been a caucus not a primary.

Ninoinoz

Re: South Yorkshire PCC Election

Labour supporters seem to have stopped calling Ukippers racists for this election, instead seemingly accusing them of playing some sort of political association football.

Does anyone know the reason why?

logical_song

AndyJS said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Alan Mak wins Conservative selection in Havant

http://www.alanmak.org.uk/

1) Alan Mak 2) Michael McManus 3) Charlotte Vere 4) Chris Hayward

He's on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background, (not that I personally care about details of that sort).

Isn't IDS part Malaysian?

AndreaParma_82

where did I say that the whole piece was about the NHS?

Richard kindly made a recap of the by-election campaign literature he received ("Labour - no mention of Rotherham but multiple mentions of ... Thatcher. Attacks on UKIP")

So I wanted to integrate the picture mentioning that in some other areas there has been another leaflet gone out. I suppose it was another one as it didn't mention Thatcher. To identify which one I was referring to I mentioned the NHS part because the first half was about issues affecting the PCC by-election and therefore I presumed common to all Labour literature distributed. I feared referring to the first half would have not helped others to identify the leaflet I was thinking about. Hence I wrote "I am pretty sure I've seen a Labour Rose special PCC edition saying the Labour will save the NHS".
It shouldn't be read that the whole leaflet was about it, only that said leaflet said that thing.

Next time I would explain it with more details to avoid comprehension problems.

Does it make me stupid? I don't think so. Does it make you rude? A bit.
My advice is always to aks for more information and explanations before making judgements or throwing insults.

felix said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

that's what the doctor ordered! You should always listen to the doctor.
http://rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/labours-pcc-candidate-literature/

felix said:

Rofl -Wtf has a PCC election to do with the NHS. Utterly pathetic.

To be fair the main piece there is about child grooming and therefore makes your post pretty stupid.

felix

AndreaParma_82 said:

where did I say that the whole piece was about the NHS?

Richard kindly made a recap of the by-election campaign literature he received ("Labour - no mention of Rotherham but multiple mentions of ... Thatcher. Attacks on UKIP")

So I wanted to integrate the picture mentioning that in some other areas there has been another leaflet gone out. I suppose it was another one as it didn't mention Thatcher. To identify which one I was referring to I mentioned the NHS part because the first half was about issues affecting the PCC by-election and therefore I presumed common to all Labour literature distributed. I feared referring to the first half would have not helped others to identify the leaflet I was thinking about. Hence I wrote "I am pretty sure I've seen a Labour Rose special PCC edition saying the Labour will save the NHS".
It shouldn't be read that the whole leaflet was about it, only that said leaflet said that thing.

Next time I would explain it with more details to avoid comprehension problems.

Does it make me stupid? I don't think so. Does it make you rude? A bit.
My advice is always to aks for more information and explanations before making judgements or throwing insults.

felix said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

that's what the doctor ordered! You should always listen to the doctor.
http://rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/labours-pcc-candidate-literature/

felix said:

Rofl -Wtf has a PCC election to do with the NHS. Utterly pathetic.

To be fair the main piece there is about child grooming and therefore makes your post pretty stupid.

You're right - what you wrote was misleading and off the point. My advice would be to be more careful next time.

PrinceofTaranto

Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.

Morris_Dancer

Come along, chaps. This is meant to be a happy PCC election. Let's not argue about who killed who.

felix

PrinceofTaranto said:

Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.

They have a really strong case to put on the NHS - Stafford, Wales ....:)

another_richard

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

Hard to see how Labour will avoid a very well deserved kicking.

It will also be good to see how an elected UKIP official performs in office.

You should get on UKIP at odds against then.

But its not hard to see Labour winning.

Turnout will be low and there are many thousands of people with a vested interest in nothing changing.

I wouldn't expect much from the UKIP candidate if he's elected. He seems quite an establishment character himself and if he tries to change anything he'll be undermined from within. The South Yorkshire plods have for a long time been regarded as not exemplars of their profession to put it mildly.

The odds on UKIP do seem very generous. Put it this way, if UKIP can't win this one do they have any chance of taking seats from Labour in a GE?

South Yorkshire's a big area with various demographics.

UKIP are going to get very few votes in Sheffield outside the three wards in the Penistone & Stocksbridge constituency.

That we're even talking about Labour losing seats in South Yorkshire is amazing, I don't remember anyone discussing potential Conservative losses in Surrey back in October 2009.

Labour's fundamental problem is that its voting coalition has contrary interests and there's no longer the money to cover over these contradictions. A year of Labour in government will bring the whole edifice down as EdM make's Francois Hollande look like Charles de Gaulle in comparison.

PrinceofTaranto

felix said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.

They have a really strong case to put on the NHS - Stafford, Wales ....:)

Indeed .They just haven't learnt from Heywood and Middleton where they did exactly the same thing.Remember the lady who was interviewed on the BBC the day after H&M and said "there were other issues which were relevant here". If the media destroy the myth of Labour and the NHS they will have nothing left.

another_richard

Talking about byelections have we got proper numbers from the Conservative Rochester primary yet and discovered who was organising it ?

Or should we consider it as 'open' as a Philippine election under Ferdinand Marcos ?

felix

PrinceofTaranto said:

felix said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.

They have a really strong case to put on the NHS - Stafford, Wales ....:)

Indeed .They just haven't learnt from Heywood and Middleton where they did exactly the same thing.Remember the lady who was interviewed on the BBC the day after H&M and said "there were other issues which were relevant here". If the media destroy the myth of Labour and the NHS they will have nothing left.

They have nothing to say on the economy, immigration, Europe, education, etc......

stodge

felix said:

They have nothing to say on the economy, immigration, Europe, education, etc......

Whereas the Conservative line is surely going to be "We wanted to change Britain but the nasty Lib Dems wouldn't let us!"

AndreaParma_82

felix said:

You're right - what you wrote was misleading and off the point. My advice would be to be more careful next time.

Honestly I don't see where it was misleading or off the point (which point, btw?). It thought it was a harmless line, just to make fun of Labour current obsession to include the NHS in every possible campaign (including this one even if it was relegated to the second page). If I wanted to mislead; I would have not even posted the whole link with the picture of the leaflet.
English is not my first language, so maybe it doesn't come out as I think it does. Or you were really right the first time and I am stupid.

Good evening all anyway...I am off to discover how many ward branches Neath CLP have.

felix

stodge said:

felix said:

They have nothing to say on the economy, immigration, Europe, education, etc......

Whereas the Conservative line is surely going to be "We wanted to change Britain but the nasty Lib Dems wouldn't let us!"

Yeah true. They want the kudos of ministerial salaries and the popularity of being an opposition - not working out too well for them so far:)

PrinceofTaranto

stodge said:

felix said:

They have nothing to say on the economy, immigration, Europe, education, etc......

Whereas the Conservative line is surely going to be "We wanted to change Britain but the nasty Lib Dems wouldn't let us!"

I think Labour's problem is that to the extent they have any position at all they find it an embarrassment.

AndyJS

UKIP membership now 40,000 according to the party:

https://twitter.com/UKIP

AndyJS

another_richard said:

Talking about byelections have we got proper numbers from the Conservative Rochester primary yet and discovered who was organising it ?

Or should we consider it as 'open' as a Philippine election under Ferdinand Marcos ?

No we haven't. They won't reveal how many spoilt papers were received either.

another_richard

PrinceofTaranto said:

felix said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.

They have a really strong case to put on the NHS - Stafford, Wales ....:)

Indeed .They just haven't learnt from Heywood and Middleton where they did exactly the same thing.Remember the lady who was interviewed on the BBC the day after H&M and said "there were other issues which were relevant here". If the media destroy the myth of Labour and the NHS they will have nothing left.

Labour's record on health in Kent left something to be desired.

As I remember there were 300 unnecessary and very unpleasant deaths in the Maidstone hospital scandal:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7038107.stm

SandyRentool

In the 2012 SY PCC election the Tories came ahead of UKIP. I guess they are now taking it as a given that they'll slump below the Kippers. And there was me thinking that the Conservative's polling position had improved since 2012.

PrinceofTaranto

AndyJS said:

another_richard said:

Talking about byelections have we got proper numbers from the Conservative Rochester primary yet and discovered who was organising it ?

Or should we consider it as 'open' as a Philippine election under Ferdinand Marcos ?

No we haven't. They won't reveal how many spoilt papers were received either.

Mark Reckless ran quite a good spoiler at the same time as the primary papers were sent out where he asked constituents for feedback on a major local issue ,the Lodge Hill development.Quite a lot of people seem to have responded to that so wouldn't be at all surprised if there were a significant number of spoilt papers in the primary.

Floater

The thing about that advert (unlike many others) is that it is absolutely true.

I see Ed Milliband is all over the news for less than optimum reasons too.

POEWAS.

Sunil_Prasannan

Did West Ham really beat Man City?

surbiton

another_richard said:

Talking about byelections have we got proper numbers from the Conservative Rochester primary yet and discovered who was organising it ?

Or should we consider it as 'open' as a Philippine election under Ferdinand Marcos ?

Have you asked CCHQ ? After all, the final numbers were decided there.

Paul_Mid_Beds

AndyJS said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Alan Mak wins Conservative selection in Havant

http://www.alanmak.org.uk/

1) Alan Mak 2) Michael McManus 3) Charlotte Vere 4) Chris Hayward

He's on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background, (not that I personally care about details of that sort).

No he's not on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background. He's got to beat UKIP in Boston & Skegness, one of their five most likely seats to win according to the Grauniad


http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/14/ukip-seats-general-election-2015

OccasionalOptimist

AndyJS said:

UKIP membership now 40,000 according to the party:

https://twitter.com/UKIP

Is that all, for the whole of England? By my calculations, that makes the Scottish Green Party proportionately the fourth largest party in the UK...

Artist

Jim Murphy now as short as 2/5 to be next Scottish Labour leader with Ladbrokes.

MikeK

UKIP Crowd Funding beats TORIES & LAB

Donations to @MarkReckless jumped £10,000 in last 24hrs.

Donate here: https://electmps-ukip.nationbuilder.com/elect_ukip_mps

PrinceofTaranto

another_richard said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

felix said:

PrinceofTaranto said:

Labour are a complete one trick pony when it comes to campaigning at the moment.Their latest leaflet in Rochester is exclusively about the NHS which is only one of many issues being fought on in the by-election.Needless to say they are trotting out the lie about UKIP trying to introduce charging for visiting your GP. They just seem to have nothing to say any more.

They have a really strong case to put on the NHS - Stafford, Wales ....:)

Indeed .They just haven't learnt from Heywood and Middleton where they did exactly the same thing.Remember the lady who was interviewed on the BBC the day after H&M and said "there were other issues which were relevant here". If the media destroy the myth of Labour and the NHS they will have nothing left.

Labour's record on health in Kent left something to be desired.

As I remember there were 300 unnecessary and very unpleasant deaths in the Maidstone hospital scandal:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7038107.stm

Their NHS leaflet is extremely weak.Mainly attacking the Tories and to a lesser extent UKIP. Nothing positive.

AndyJS

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

AndyJS said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Alan Mak wins Conservative selection in Havant

http://www.alanmak.org.uk/

1) Alan Mak 2) Michael McManus 3) Charlotte Vere 4) Chris Hayward

He's on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background, (not that I personally care about details of that sort).

No he's not on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background. He's got to beat UKIP in Boston & Skegness, one of their five most likely seats to win according to the Grauniad


http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/14/ukip-seats-general-election-2015

He's the candidate in Havant (not Boston & Skegness).

MarkSenior

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

AndyJS said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Alan Mak wins Conservative selection in Havant

http://www.alanmak.org.uk/

1) Alan Mak 2) Michael McManus 3) Charlotte Vere 4) Chris Hayward

He's on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background, (not that I personally care about details of that sort).

No he's not on course to be the Conservatives' first MP from an oriental background. He's got to beat UKIP in Boston & Skegness, one of their five most likely seats to win according to the Grauniad


http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/14/ukip-seats-general-election-2015

As I have posted several times . UKIP are very unlikely to win Boston and Skegness as there will be two rival UKIP candidates following the split in Lincs UKIP last year .

SquareRoot

It is rumoured that David Cameron reads PB. Well, Dave if you are readingPB , this is my latest experience of trying to make an appt to see MY Doctor

Ring Ring.. auto answer,...there are two calls in front of you.. ring ring same message for 20 minutes.. then progress ring ring.. there is one call in front of you... ring ring for another 20 mins.... at last answered.. I said Do you know it has taken 40 mins to get thro.. unsympathetic receptionists.. well I am the only one answering the phone.. .. I wondered what could have taken 20 mins for each call but I let it pass..

cont p94

Ninoinoz

felix said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

that's what the doctor ordered! You should always listen to the doctor.
http://rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com/2014/10/13/labours-pcc-candidate-literature/

felix said:

Rofl -Wtf has a PCC election to do with the NHS. Utterly pathetic.

To be fair the main piece there is about child grooming and therefore makes your post pretty stupid.

A few points from someone whose first language is English.

1. Dr. Alan Billings doesn't seem to have worked in the medical procession in any capacity. His doctorate must be in another subject.

2. The quoted paragraphs from him are entirely about you-know-what, not the NHS.

3. At the bottom of both sides of the leaflet there is a 'One Nation Labour' band. Perhaps Kent is an independent kingdom again?

4. The reverse side of the leaflet seems to standard Yorkshire Labour boilerplate, mentioning Doncaster MP Ed Miliband (not so shy after all...). Interestingly, they attack UKIP, not the Tories.

5. The application to join Labour has six items of concern to be ticked. Two are about the NHS, two about the cost of living, one about immigration and the other about anti-social behaviour.

Spot what's missing?

nigel4england

SquareRoot said:

It is rumoured that David Cameron reads PB. Well, Dave if you are readingPB , this is my latest experience of trying to make an appt to see MY Doctor

Ring Ring.. auto answer,...there are two calls in front of you.. ring ring same message for 20 minutes.. then progress ring ring.. there is one call in front of you... ring ring for another 20 mins.... at last answered.. I said Do you know it has taken 40 mins to get thro.. unsympathetic receptionists.. well I am the only one answering the phone.. .. I wondered what could have taken 20 mins for each call but I let it pass..

cont p94

I live about 200 yards from my GP practice. If I ring at 8-30 when it opens for an emergency appointment it is constantly engaged, so I walk round instead. It is serene when I go round, no phones ringing or anything. Makes you wonder what is really going on.

SquareRoot

SquareRoot said:

It is rumoured that David Cameron reads PB. Well, Dave if you are readingPB , this is my latest experience of trying to make an appt to see MY Doctor

Ring Ring.. auto answer,...there are two calls in front of you.. ring ring same message for 20 minutes.. then progress ring ring.. there is one call in front of you... ring ring for another 20 mins.... at last answered.. I said Do you know it has taken 40 mins to get thro.. unsympathetic receptionists.. well I am the only one answering the phone.. .. I wondered what could have taken 20 mins for each call but I let it pass..

cont p94

Cont..

Can I have an appt please to see my doctor, Dr X.. Yes on the 7th Nov at 9.40. > I said that's a long time but you can see another Dr earlier.. I said but I want to see MY doctor.. Why do we register with a Dr if we never see them one wonders....

So I book., I am driving so I ask can you e mail that to me as I cannot write it down as I am driving.. No we don't e mail, but if you wait until you can write it down, call me back and I would be happy to tell you the date and time.. I said.. What>?? Wait another 40 mins to get thro to you .. I think not. I stopped and called home and left myself a message at home..

It wasn't like this before my darling wife died.(she was a GP. I didn't need to use the NHS mostimes as she used to say.. "you'll be allright or take an aspiring or ipubobrufen..

Now I have to use the NHS.. God help those who have to use it.