Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour could be in trouble in the South Yorkshire PCC by-el

13»

Comments

  • Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    National Opinion Poll (YouGov):

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-1)
    UKIP - 16% (+1)
    LDEM - 7% (+1)
    GRN - 6% (=)

    TSE - presumably this is the poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times - how come Britain Elects gets it before anyone else - even before YouGov put it up on their own website?
  • A pretty desperate and confused defence. You may not like the evidence that attacks on UKIP over their NHS policies are valid, but tough. The point is its not a question of them being good or bad - its the point that if Nuttall is right then why is he trying to hide it from traditional labour supporters?
    The reality is this govt led by tories is actually doing something about opening up the NHS to priveate enterprise and is making £20 billion of efficiency savings. As well as taking hundreds of thousands of jobs out of the public sector.
    The response by the govt has not been wholy inadequate to Mid Staffs.

    If UKIP were in a coalition how many of its policies would it have to compromise on (Its happy to sully itself with links to neo nazis in the Euro parliament). How is Farage's coalition with Carswell getting on BTW?

    Did the tories campaign for or against AV?
    Same sex marriage? Again!? We already know how bigoted you lot are on that. It was in the tory manifesto. It gave a free vote.

    I don't need lectures from supporters of a party whose MEP slags its own supporter as a ting tong and then laughs about it after, thank you very much. Or a supporter of a party who coseys up to a Polish neo nazi. Has Carswell commented on that yet?
    I don't need lectures beacause I know precisely what UKIP has become and who it is appealing to.
    How long have you spent composing that? Clearly I tweaked a nerve. I won't bother with most of it because its just froth but I will highlight two things.

    Firstly with the number of rebels in the Parliamentary Conservative party your pathetic attempts to suggest there is some sort of rift in UKIP is risible

    As for your spouting about the NHS what about this then just last week? We can see the results of the Tories 'opening up' the NHS now can't we?

    Care Quality Commission: 'Four in five NHS hospitals not safe'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/nhs/11166270/Care-Quality-Commission-Four-in-five-NHS-hospitals-not-safe.html

  • Re that that Sunday Times story.

    The Tories motto should be Farage/UKIP delenda est.

    And Douglas Carswell really is worse than a traitorous pig dog.

    His betrayal shall echo throughout the ages.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    PrinceofTaranto said:
    'Mark Reckless ran quite a good spoiler at the same time as the primary papers were sent out...'

    So neo-kippers like Carswell actually believe in open primaries (except in their own by election) and its OK and clever for the UKIP candidate (centrally selected by party apparatchiks) to run spoilers on the open primary of another party? A clever wheeze thought up in the pub no doubt.

    More kipper hypocrisy.
  • AndyJS said:

    In Australia they'd get rid of Ed if it was obvious he was going to lose, even a few weeks before the election. In this country we have to do this thing where everyone knows a party is going down to defeat but they have to keep the leader in place anyway, as with Foot, Kinnock, Hague, etc. Must be some weird type of masochism.

    If Milipede resigned now Gideon would find a way to get round the fixed term act and dissolve parliament ensuring the general election occurred with Labour in chaos and Hattie manning the bridge who would be a bigger liability than Ed.
  • Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    National Opinion Poll (YouGov):

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-1)
    UKIP - 16% (+1)
    LDEM - 7% (+1)
    GRN - 6% (=)

    TSE - presumably this is the poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times - how come Britain Elects gets it before anyone else - even before YouGov put it up on their own website?
    I have no idea.

    Is really annoying, I was the person who usually was the first person on the internet to post the Sunday Times/YouGov poll for about four years.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Labour seem to be sleepwalking to defeat at the GE. To avert this fate, surely someone soon in Labour will wake up and say that they have to get rid of Miliband and come up with something to say that resembles a programme for government. At the moment leadership and policy to tackle the big issues are non-existent.

    Surely to late to get rid of Ed now - thank god.


  • RodCrosby said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    National Opinion Poll (YouGov):

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-1)
    UKIP - 16% (+1)
    LDEM - 7% (+1)
    GRN - 6% (=)

    Well, well...

    A Tory lead by January is what I forecast (about 18 months ago).

    Many laughed but it looks like you will be right again.

    Labours 35% strategy is receding into the distance.

    NOM looks nailed on.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's difficult to believe Labour can be as low as 33% when they managed 30% with Brown in 2010.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Oh yeah, Another poll with Labour below the magic 35%

    ...and the Conservatives below the magic 38?

    It would be a different story if Priti was in charge...
    Look at the general long term trend.

    Sleazy broken Labour on the slide, Virtuous brilliant Tories on the up, and the Lib Dems LOL.
    Been over two weeks since the last poll to show a Tory lead!
    The general trend.

    And the Hammers beat Citeh earlier on today
    Yes, can't believe we're 4th in the table!
    Like the Lib Dems :-)
  • Unless I'm imagining things, it seems that over the past week or so Labour's lead in the polls has shrunk from a typical range of 2% - 4% (i.e. an average of around 3%) to a range of 0% - 2% (i.e. an average of 1%). Isn't this precisely what Stephen Fisher's GE model (and that of others) anticipates?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Genuine question. Could a Tory PPC defect to UKIP a week before the election by which time it would be impossible for the Tories to put up another candidate?

    In 1979, the Liberal candidate in Cardiff South East withdrew so that the Tory would have a clear run against James Callaghan.

    It was too late to nominate another Liberal candidate.
  • Is there a Rochester poll tonight from mos Survation?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    From the Sunday Times.

    UKIP is to make a serious attempt to win 100 seats at next year’s general election and will try to oust even Eurosceptic Tories.

    At a strategy meeting last week, senior party figures agreed to field candidates in every seat — and run serious campaigns in 100 of them — and not give a free ride to MPs who want to leave the EU. The decision was backed by Douglas Carswell, who became Ukip’s first elected MP earlier this month after defecting from the Tories.

    Paul Sykes, the party’s biggest donor, is prepared to give more than £1.5m to help fund the campaign. “We want to make it absolutely clear that we are not interested in behind-the-scenes deals with other parties, all of whom are committed to our continued membership of the failing European Union,” said the party leader, Nigel Farage. “We will not be doing grubby deals.”

    New forecast of UKIP seats won in May 2015 now reach 108.
    Loaded Revolvers will be handed to PB Tories when they clock off tonight.
  • Is there a Rochester poll tonight from mos Survation?

    Possibly, the original source says no
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    At the top of my browser screen I am getting a Trivago advert showing hotel rooms in Rotherham £40/night.

    Might take that up come General Election time.....
  • New Thread
  • MikeK said:

    From the Sunday Times.

    UKIP is to make a serious attempt to win 100 seats at next year’s general election and will try to oust even Eurosceptic Tories.

    At a strategy meeting last week, senior party figures agreed to field candidates in every seat — and run serious campaigns in 100 of them — and not give a free ride to MPs who want to leave the EU. The decision was backed by Douglas Carswell, who became Ukip’s first elected MP earlier this month after defecting from the Tories.

    Paul Sykes, the party’s biggest donor, is prepared to give more than £1.5m to help fund the campaign. “We want to make it absolutely clear that we are not interested in behind-the-scenes deals with other parties, all of whom are committed to our continued membership of the failing European Union,” said the party leader, Nigel Farage. “We will not be doing grubby deals.”

    New forecast of UKIP seats won in May 2015 now reach 108.
    Loaded Revolvers will be handed to PB Tories when they clock off tonight.
    Have to say I thought you had lost the plot when you said UKIP would get 25, even now I am not convinced but just as Rod was right re the Labour vote you have been proved correct with the UKIP surge.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    AndyJS said:

    It's difficult to believe Labour can be as low as 33% when they managed 30% with Brown in 2010.

    Why? Any idea what Labour supporters are supposed to be voting for?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    It is possible that attacked by UKIP in E&W and the SNP in Scotland Labour could be the ones to seriously implode. They have an awful leader and no policy beyond the magic money tree and save the NHS - and the latter means save it for Unison, the BMA and all the other vested interests.
  • Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    National Opinion Poll (YouGov):

    CON - 33% (-1)
    LAB - 33% (-1)
    UKIP - 16% (+1)
    LDEM - 7% (+1)
    GRN - 6% (=)

    TSE - presumably this is the poll for tomorrow's Sunday Times - how come Britain Elects gets it before anyone else - even before YouGov put it up on their own website?
    I have no idea.

    Is really annoying, I was the person who usually was the first person on the internet to post the Sunday Times/YouGov poll for about four years.
    I know the feeling TSE. Time was when I could count on being First ..... again! when posting on a new thread of a well known political blog, but these days I find myself being left for dead by a number of pesky Johnny-come-latelies.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 11m11 minutes ago
    THE SUNDAY TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Merkel: I will block PM on immigrants" #skypapers

    Merkel grabbing Cammo by the balls.. It couldn't happen to a more deserving chap.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I make that 8 polls since the beginning of October with the Tories either tied or ahead.

    Their best month since February 2012.

    A tipping point has been reached, I think...
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @NicxkPalmer

    'The fact that he's flatly denied it plus the fact that the story'

    This is the guy that told us there were WMD's in Iraq,the 40 minute warning and the rest of the bogus reasons for going to war and you are naive enough to believe him!


  • It's why I'm staggered that UKIP have chosen an ex-inspector from that very force. A terrible choice.

    Indeed.

    UKIP candidate choice generally seems poor.

    I'm sure they would claim "we pick ordinary people not professional politicians" but even so ...



    But if the good people of South Yorkshire vote for a Labour PPC once again, then they need their heads testing.

    Indeed again.

    But thousands of people have a vested interest in there being no change.

    Though I don't think the UKIP candidate would be a force for change.


  • It's why I'm staggered that UKIP have chosen an ex-inspector from that very force. A terrible choice.

    Indeed.

    UKIP candidate choice generally seems poor.

    I'm sure they would claim "we pick ordinary people not professional politicians" but even so ...



    But if the good people of South Yorkshire vote for a Labour PPC once again, then they need their heads testing.

    Indeed again.

    But thousands of people have a vested interest in there being no change.

    Though I don't think the UKIP candidate would be a force for change.
    Its probably an astute move politically.

    If UKIP win then he will be the first person to exercise power on behalf of the party, so someone with some inside knowledge and experience who might be a little dull is a far safer bet than some harebrained radical who will cause well publicised uproar.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,899
    The sex lives thnig is interesting.

    According to the Spectator "adventurous" would include stopping in the middle and delivering a political lecture:

    >http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9264391/my-secret-lust-for-right-wing-women/
This discussion has been closed.