In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.
One dry winter does not a drought make. After last winter - a wet record - groundwater levels have been recharged to full and it would take two successive dry winters to bring on a drought.
Groundwater levels are receding. We're at 12 inches below the surface currently. I'd like a few average years now. Swinging from drought to flood to drought again is not British.
If groundwater levels were at surface levels you'd be living in a marsh!
We were a few months ago. Now the talk is of possible water shortages next summer. It's ridiculous.
What talk? You're the first person I've heard mention it.
Incidentally, the Met Office forecast for the UK for the latter half of October starts with this:
"Current indications now suggest that generally unsettled conditions are likely to affect many areas of the UK during this period, with spells of wet and windy weather."
"He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances.
We have a PM who is sending war planes to bomb somewhere again after the damage caused the last several times we threw our lot in with the US and you call damaging our economy 'exceptionally dangerous'
It's that sort of hyperbole that's "exceptionally dangerous". It damages youngsters developing brain cells
@Patrick Somewhere there must be a "righty" that understands why the world in general is in such a state, and where a policy of making the rich richer, and the poor into slaves takes us. Rarer then griffon eggs of course, but we can hope.
"Boris Johnson tonight launched an extraordinary attack on Tories who have defected to UKIP, claiming they were the sort of people who injure themselves having sex with vacuum cleaners."
How does Boris come by that bit of knowledge?
Like the Bishop of Bath and Wells, he's had everything and done everything, animal, vegetable, and mineral
That's probably my favourite episode of Blackadder II.
Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?
This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.
We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.
The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.
Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to address this.
Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:
How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.
...the last bloke who managed to kill off the recovery he inherited from Labour...
!!! Where to start? If what was inherited in 2010 was anything other than an economic clusterfu
I am that lefty. The only way that the public finances can be brought into order is by cutting pensions, and I don't mean 50p here or a £1 there. I'm talking means-testing (including capital value of homes owned outright) and cutting and/or taxing final salary occupational pensions for the rest of the money.
Of course it's politically impossible. So the Chancellor - be he red or blue - takes one more shot of pills and tells himself the collapse probably won't happen on his watch.
If you really want to address the issue (as opposed to making cheap partisan ramps) you look at why the problem arose in the first place. But demographics aren't sexy in the way that partisan abuse is.
Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?
This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.
We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.
The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.
Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to address this.
Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:
How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.
...the last bloke who managed to kill off the recovery he inherited from Labour...
!!! Where to start? If what was inherited in 2010 was anything other than an economic clusterfu
There has been a rather limp attempt to paint 2010 as a Year Zero. Christ, it took at least a decade for memories to fade last time.
We have a PM who is sending war planes to bomb somewhere again after the damage caused the last several times we threw our lot in with the US and you call damaging our economy 'exceptionally dangerous'
I agree on the bombing - we have no big plan, no end state to work towards. We're planting the seeds of yet another debacle.
But a hundred 9/11s will do less damage than 1 Venezuela, 1 Argentina, 1 Greece. MUCH the biggest danger this country faces is economic. Certainly in what it presages for people's living standards and security.
Last post for the night, just to annoy Rod a little bit, I've finished adding the numbers from the new constituency polls. Polls have been conducted in 76 constituencies now: 39 CON seats, 24 LD, and 13 LAB The average movement is CON -9, LAB +5, LD -14, UKIP +16, GRN +2 , for a 7% swing from CON to LAB (not much different from national polls). From those 76 seats, the Tories lose 25 and gain 7, Labour gains 32, LD lose 15, UKIP gains 4 and the Greens lose 1.
Inside the seats now, in Tory seats: CON -9.5 LAB +4 LD -13.5 UKIP +17
In LD seats
CON -7.5 LAB +7.5 LD -16 UKIP +12.5
In LAB seats
CON -9.5 LAB +4 LD -10.5 UKIP +16.5
Interesting facts, Tories lose most of their vote in their own seats as well as Labour seats, a mirror image of that is the rise of UKIP in those same seats. Labour gains most in LD seats, and the LD lose also most in their own seats but least in Labour seats. Bad news for the LD, the swing away from them towards the Tories and Labour is greater in their own seats.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
...There must somewhere be a lefty who understands where this country will end up if we don't resolve our unsustainable welfare state.
This isn't a left-right issue at the moment.
The deficit is still huge and yet a Conservative Prime Minister is set to announce a seven-day service for GP appointments on the NHS. One presumes this will be paid for by a tax on banker's bonuses...
If you are that lefty then you are probably voting for the wrong party! It doesn't have to be the End of Days. If we balance the budget there'd still be public spending to the tune of several hundreds of billions of pounds. That's not pin money. We need a national mindset change - an Alt/Ctrl/Delete on expectations. And on this the main parties are miles and miles apart.
Aditya Chakrabortty, the author, is putting part at least of the blame for Tesco’s difficulties down to inadequate auditing. I think it’s at least arguable that a significant part of the financial crash in 2008 or so was down to inadequate monitoring and many of the “difficulties” we’ve had in the West seem to be as a result of relying on the honesty of the people in the City and it’s equivalents elsewhere, and not establishing proper monitoring systems. Incidentally, I very much doubt that many in the City are personally dishonest; it’s the system in which they operate.
Extrapolating from that, this lefty at rate any believes that our welfare state isn’t unaffordable “because”; the problem lies in the way in which our financial markets are operated and managed.
Sadly, no-one, apart from once upon a time Vince Cable, seems to recognise this.
Mr. Me, the 7 day promise is a nonsense. Great idea, but it must be funded.
Of course, if Alan Johnson as Health Secretary hadn't completely buggered up the negotiations about a decade ago GPs would cost less and have to do more work. In the same way, if we hadn't had a deficit run for years prior to the crash we'd be in significantly better shape now.
It's also amusing (or would be, if the media had a memory longer than a goldfish) that Labour have suddenly stopped talking about Keynes. Funny that. They were so keen on him when his views meant spending more. But now, in the 'boom' with the economy growing, Keynes would advocate cutting far more drastically. And all at once he's dropped by Labour.
Saw the BBC News at Ten last night. Robinson was quite right that there appears to be a stark difference between the blues and reds when it comes to the deficit.
Another point or so and we wander into the land of MOE.....
The Tories are currently outside the MOE, on the down side, and in any event need to be well ahead of Labour to be largest party. There's only around 200 days to go, so these numbers are food for thought...
V interesting to read Ashcroft's latest. Looking at the poll in detail it seems that Liberals could hold a couple more seats in their South West stronghold if they could persuade a percent or two of UKIP to switch. I know this sounds unlikely, but maybe they can come up with some local issue that could turn these voters? e.g. St Austell is a virtual tie (indeed too close to call in polling terms), yet UKIP on a whacking 25%.
Another point or so and we wander into the land of MOE.....
Margin of error is more of a slope than a boundary to cross. 1000 sample is a 50% chance of being within 1, 95% chance of being within 3 (I forget the % for within 2).
We have a PM who is sending war planes to bomb somewhere again after the damage caused the last several times we threw our lot in with the US and you call damaging our economy 'exceptionally dangerous'
I agree on the bombing - we have no big plan, no end state to work towards. We're planting the seeds of yet another debacle.
But a hundred 9/11s will do less damage than 1 Venezuela, 1 Argentina, 1 Greece. MUCH the biggest danger this country faces is economic. Certainly in what it presages for people's living standards and security.
Patrick, the big issue is neither Labour or Tories could run a bath. It is a choice between dumb and dumber. The country is stuffed due to the crooked political system that allows these incompetent twunts to just take turns each at bleeding us dry as they fill their pockets.
UKIP Wandsworth @UKIP_Battersea Sep 28 Nigel Farage asks "When is the PM's speech this week?" - BBC asks "Wednesday, Why? - "just a thought you know" http://youtu.be/LQtW6IhNMT0 #UKIP
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
Very much a historical Con/Lab battleground. If Labour is giving up in Kent and Essex (where they won 11 seats in 2005), their path to victory becomes much narrower.
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
Very much a historical Con/Lab battleground. If Labour is giving up in Kent and Essex (where they won 11 seats in 2005), their path to victory becomes much narrower.
Doesn’t feel like Labour are giving up in this part of Essex.
In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.
Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.
But the real point is that the gulf between Tory and Labour economic and tax policies is now at its widest since John Major and Neil Kinnock’s epic struggle in 1992. What voters will make of this remains to be seen.
In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.
Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.
But the real point is that the gulf between Tory and Labour economic and tax policies is now at its widest since John Major and Neil Kinnock’s epic struggle in 1992. What voters will make of this remains to be seen.
A PBer was asking the other day at what point in current cycle would a defector not have to call a by-election because the GE was too close. Gary Gibbon of C4 News reckons mid-December is that point. He therefore muses on his blog that possible we would see a defection shortly after that point, but concedes this would be seen as cowardice.
@Casino_Royale George has outlined his plans, but has not as yet explained where the the major part of his projected welfare cuts are to fall. Do you know? or indeed, does he?
If you are that lefty then you are probably voting for the wrong party! It doesn't have to be the End of Days. If we balance the budget there'd still be public spending to the tune of several hundreds of billions of pounds. That's not pin money. We need a national mindset change - an Alt/Ctrl/Delete on expectations. And on this the main parties are miles and miles apart.
The deficit is £84bn out of public spending of £742bn. That is to say the deficit is greater than any single budget item except "social protection" as Osborne quaintly calls it - benefits, pensions and tax credits to the rest of us. (The NHS costs about £55bn or roughly £1000 each - and, like pensions, it's a way of transferring money from the young to the old.) I stand by my earlier comments, Patrick, but it's clear we aren't going to agree - not least because you seem to be confused as to where the deficit came from. And we are all confused by the fact that governments are not like households (I do but quote Gladstone) and none of us know whether governments need to balance their books from time to time in order to give the markets confidence to lend to them or not. Certainly if all governments run deficits all the time then either the markets adjust to the fact or we have the Marxian apocalypse.
BTW, don't confuse the current account deficit (£84bn) with the capital debt (roughly £1000bn) on which the government is paying about £50bn - I wish I could get someone to pay me that level of interest on my savings).
Another point or so and we wander into the land of MOE.....
The Tories are currently outside the MOE, on the down side, and in any event need to be well ahead of Labour to be largest party. There's only around 200 days to go, so these numbers are food for thought...
Certainly. In years to come this will go down as the 'it was obvious Labour would win it' or 'the government revived unusually late', or some variation on 'two party politics fractured for ever' election.
To me, the big 'wild card' now is Scotland - how 'the Vow' goes - and how it is seen by the electorate, both sides of the border.
The rest of the arguments we know - though it was interesting that on R4 Cameron was taking no prisoners on the NHS.....
I worked for Alan Johnson at the DoH - very nice chappy. Not exactly very effective though. He had some quite good people in his team - but there were an awful lot of big egos and turf wars that really clogged things up.
And of course we had David Nicholson... his ego was the size of Jupiter.
TBH, the DoH was too big to be manageable - the same could be said for many HMG depts. Unfortunately when they get broken up - they tend to turn into stove pipes instead and all do their own thing. It's a no-win.
Mr. Me, the 7 day promise is a nonsense. Great idea, but it must be funded.
Of course, if Alan Johnson as Health Secretary hadn't completely buggered up the negotiations about a decade ago GPs would cost less and have to do more work. In the same way, if we hadn't had a deficit run for years prior to the crash we'd be in significantly better shape now.
It's also amusing (or would be, if the media had a memory longer than a goldfish) that Labour have suddenly stopped talking about Keynes. Funny that. They were so keen on him when his views meant spending more. But now, in the 'boom' with the economy growing, Keynes would advocate cutting far more drastically. And all at once he's dropped by Labour.
Saw the BBC News at Ten last night. Robinson was quite right that there appears to be a stark difference between the blues and reds when it comes to the deficit.
@innocent abroad - I agree with you that it's the biggest elephant in the DSS room but I think some of that might be politically suicidal.
They could do two things though (1) set the state pension age at average life expectancy minus 9 years going forwards, to be reviewed every 10 years and (2) break the triple-lock of the highest of prices/earnings/inflation. It should just be CPI.
As private pensions then take the place of state pensions over the next 40-50 years, the state pension could then be gradually rolled back until it becomes means tested.
Actually I agree on pensions - they need to be part of the deficit reduction. For me the way to do it is to raise the pensionable age in line with life expectancies. So probably nearer to 70 than current view as demographics change.
And we need to balance budgets year in year out as a habit. That is where the horrific public finance picture comes from. In a perfect world we wouldn't need a gilt market.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
You'll be delighted to know that provisionally the afternoon thread is going to feature vacuum cleaners.
If you are that lefty then you are probably voting for the wrong party! It doesn't have to be the End of Days. If we balance the budget there'd still be public spending to the tune of several hundreds of billions of pounds. That's not pin money. We need a national mindset change - an Alt/Ctrl/Delete on expectations. And on this the main parties are miles and miles apart.
The NHS costs about £55bn or roughly £1000 each -
NHS England alone has a budget of nearly £100bn
"Overall, NHS England has a budget of £95.6 billion to deliver the mandate. Within this overall funding, it has allocated £65.6 billion to local health economy commissioners: that is, CCGs and local authorities. This represents 2.6% growth compared to equivalent 2012/13 baselines – a real term increase of 0.6% at a time of limited resources."
That's just going to encourage people to disengage again.
You'd think there would be a better way to collect tax than directly linking it to the electoral register
Cosla, the umbrella group that represents many councils, said local authorities were within their rights to use "whatever sources of information are available legally to pursue unpaid debt".
I've no doubt that they are legally (and morally) doing the right thing. It's just the perception is terrible: participate and we'll tax you.
King Cole, Look North (local BBC news) and, I think, Calendar (ITV) have been giving it more coverage than national media, often leading with developments which barely made the national coverage.
18 or 28 (I forget which) suspects are being investigated by the police, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. It's not enough.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
You'll be delighted to know that provisionally the afternoon thread is going to feature vacuum cleaners.
OT Anyone heading to Nice will find it's taken on the appearance of a police state. It's awash with uniformed men with guns and traffic hold ups. Best avoided.
I was there last week & very nice it was to. Are you actually in Nice or elsewhere in the area?
@Patrick Somewhere there must be a "righty" that understands why the world in general is in such a state, and where a policy of making the rich richer, and the poor into slaves takes us. Rarer then griffon eggs of course, but we can hope.
I think you will find that they are called libertarians.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
You'll be delighted to know that provisionally the afternoon thread is going to feature vacuum cleaners.
Well done that man. I hope it features intellectual points such as a rejected person or party is always likely to be hurt and/or angry and that as such Reckless just needs to suck it up.
And we need to balance budgets year in year out as a habit. That is where the horrific public finance picture comes from. In a perfect world we wouldn't need a gilt market.
The gilt market is what made Britain great.
Borrowing is not a problem, provided - like with military intervention, say - it is done for a clear purpose and with an end in sight.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
You'll be delighted to know that provisionally the afternoon thread is going to feature vacuum cleaners.
Unlike some Conservatives Barnes is a keen advocate of the cultural festivals championed under Ken Livingstone’s mayoralty: “you can’t have a London that doesn’t enjoy Chinese New Year, Russian Winter Festival, Eid, Passion play in Trafalgar Square, carol concerts at Christmas. Celebrating the diversity that is there, that is the greater legacy.”....
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
You'll be delighted to know that provisionally the afternoon thread is going to feature vacuum cleaners.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
You'll be delighted to know that provisionally the afternoon thread is going to feature vacuum cleaners.
A PBer was asking the other day at what point in current cycle would a defector not have to call a by-election because the GE was too close. Gary Gibbon of C4 News reckons mid-December is that point. He therefore muses on his blog that possible we would see a defection shortly after that point, but concedes this would be seen as cowardice.
I posed that question, and thanks for the reply. Mr Tyndall (I think) did some maths and said the end of the year, so it sounds like both are more or less in agreement, especially considering the festive period.
And we need to balance budgets year in year out as a habit. That is where the horrific public finance picture comes from. In a perfect world we wouldn't need a gilt market.
The gilt market is what made Britain great.
Borrowing is not a problem, provided - like with military intervention, say - it is done for a clear purpose and with an end in sight.
@Casino_Royale George has outlined his plans, but has not as yet explained where the the major part of his projected welfare cuts are to fall. Do you know? or indeed, does he?
Yes, I expect he does know. I suspect further cuts in non-politically contentious departments, pay freezes and further welfare cuts.
I'm guessing, but he might abolish the DCMS, abandon the 0.7% GDP target for aid and freeze the education budget for a couple of years too.
@Patrick Somewhere there must be a "righty" that understands why the world in general is in such a state, and where a policy of making the rich richer, and the poor into slaves takes us. Rarer then griffon eggs of course, but we can hope.
There are "righties" that have that understanding.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening. Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes Best LAB 10/1 PP
You'll be delighted to know that provisionally the afternoon thread is going to feature vacuum cleaners.
Well done that man. I hope it features intellectual points such as a rejected person or party is always likely to be hurt and/or angry and that as such Reckless just needs to suck it up.
It also features a reference to one of the greatest films of all time.
In the subsidiaries on the new you gov survey, there were questions about what you thought of Reckless. I added one or two adjectives....other probably would not have passed the censor so I left them out.
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
There were a couple of people (@NickPalmer?) posting they expected Labour to soft pedel.
I'm just wondering are there any by-elections Labour will try to win? Is money really that tight?
@Patrick Somewhere there must be a "righty" that understands why the world in general is in such a state, and where a policy of making the rich richer, and the poor into slaves takes us. Rarer then griffon eggs of course, but we can hope.
A lot of us understand that, and feel very concerned by it, but we're just aware that it must be done in a manner that's sustainable. You can't wish away the constraints of reality.
On topic: Lord Ashcroft, as ever, makes some good points. In particular, he's probably right that the incumbency bonus has to be 'earned'.
What we don't know is whether opinion polls, even detailed constituency polls such as he is conducting, would pick up any such bonus, or whether it is something which shows up only in the actual vote. I don't know whether there has been any real research on this; it might be that the data is simply not there for previous elections. Nor do we know whether constituency polls are actually of much use.
My overall take on this is that they add a little bit of supplementary information, and are useful for betting purpose in a few constituencies, but that we need to be very aware of the margin of error in these polls and therefore not attribute to them a significance which exceeds their expected accuracy. Overall, you're probably better off going on headline national voting intention from a basket of reputable pollsters.
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
There were a couple of people (@NickPalmer?) posting they expected Labour to soft pedel.
I'm just wondering are there any by-elections Labour will try to win? Is money really that tight?
I expect they just don't like RodCrosby and are trying to trash his by-election swingback forecast model for general elections.
Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?
This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long
The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.
Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to a
Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:
How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.
...the last bloke who managed to kill off the recovery he inherited from Labour...
!!! Where to start? If what was inherited in 2010 was anything other than an economic clusterfu
I am that lefty. The only way that the public finances can be brought into order is by cutting pensions, and I don't mean 50p here or a £1 there. I'm talking means-testing (including capital value of homes owned outright) and cutting and/or taxing final salary occupational pensions for the rest of the money.
No, this is clearly wrong.
Total govt spending is £700bn/year and pensions only make up £200bn of that.
Consider this, the state spends about £5,500 per pupil in a state secondary school. Assuming 30 pupils per class thats £165,000/yr.
Assume £75,000 for one and a half teachers, £10,000 for the room, £10,000 for the books and desks and £10,000 for anything else.
That leaves £60,000.
Could someone please explain what happens to this please.
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
There were a couple of people (@NickPalmer?) posting they expected Labour to soft pedel.
I'm just wondering are there any by-elections Labour will try to win? Is money really that tight?
Labour have no chance of winning that seat, none. They are not awash with cash like the Tories so wisely will avoid wasting valuable resources just to come second. Playing the FPP game with an election 200 days away is about allocating scarce resources to the seats you can win. It really is that simple.
King Cole, Look North (local BBC news) and, I think, Calendar (ITV) have been giving it more coverage than national media, often leading with developments which barely made the national coverage.
18 or 28 (I forget which) suspects are being investigated by the police, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. It's not enough.
Mr Dancer, I’m obliged. I think, with my glass half-full, that it’s a start but I agree it’s not enough. Publicity re arrests etc too, might scare a few others into desisting, or not starting.
King Cole, the most disturbing report I heard on local news was that a woman who conducted an earlier report found basically what was happening. But the report was suppressed, and she was visited by men and warned that if she kicked up a fuss her home address would be given to the rape gangs.
Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?
This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long
The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.
Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to a
Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:
How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.
...the last bloke who managed to kill off the recovery he inherited from Labour...
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No, this is clearly wrong.
Total govt spending is £700bn/year and pensions only make up £200bn of that.
Consider this, the state spends about £5,500 per pupil in a state secondary school. Assuming 30 pupils per class thats £165,000/yr.
Assume £75,000 for one and a half teachers, £10,000 for the room, £10,000 for the books and desks and £10,000 for anything else.
That leaves £60,000.
Could someone please explain what happens to this please.
I would imagine property costs are a lot higher than £10,000. Remember you need playground space, assembly halls, administrative offices, staff facilities, toilets etc. You also have staff costs that are higher: you have headteachers, deputies, classroom assistants, special needs staff, school nurses, office staff, janitors.
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
There were a couple of people (@NickPalmer?) posting they expected Labour to soft pedel.
I'm just wondering are there any by-elections Labour will try to win? Is money really that tight?
It would also have a bad knock on effect in Labour groups in the area if a half-hearted approach was adopted in Rochester. Clacton is understandable as a decision to be a bystander. Rochester is indicative of a party that has given up in areas they used to be strong in. A 35% minus strategy?
@TGOHF As "any fule no", the figures are an estimate subject to revision. Which means the previous quarters downgrade is liable to be a better guess than this quarters estimate.
It's extraordinary that Labour are 10/1 in a seat that they won in 2005. But since Ed Miliband's Labour don't really seem very interested in taking on challenging by-elections, those odds may well be right.
There were a couple of people (@NickPalmer?) posting they expected Labour to soft pedel.
I'm just wondering are there any by-elections Labour will try to win? Is money really that tight?
It would also have a bad knock on effect in Labour groups in the area if a half-hearted approach was adopted in Rochester. Clacton is understandable as a decision to be a bystander. Rochester is indicative of a party that has given up in areas they used to be strong in. A 35% minus strategy?
We get this total and utter bilge every time when the Tories are defending a seat at a byelection.
As if Labour will fall for it. Game theory says do what you chief opponent least wants you to do.
When Labour starts taking election strategy advice from its key rival, it's in deep trouble.
Comments
Just a reminder the pre-qualifying piece will be up on Friday due to the early nature of practice in Japan. Thoughts ahead of the race and analysis of whhy my form's been a little off lately is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/japan-early-thoughts.html
Next election remains immensely hard to call. Not sure I can remember one quite so uncertain.
But Arse is like an old soldier. It doesn't die. It just fades away.
Incidentally, the Met Office forecast for the UK for the latter half of October starts with this:
"Current indications now suggest that generally unsettled conditions are likely to affect many areas of the UK during this period, with spells of wet and windy weather."
The ECMWF forecast for next Thursday's by-election is, I understand, known technically as a "Low over the British Isles" - or Tief Britische Inseln if you prefer.
"He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances.
We have a PM who is sending war planes to bomb somewhere again after the damage caused the last several times we threw our lot in with the US and you call damaging our economy 'exceptionally dangerous'
It's that sort of hyperbole that's "exceptionally dangerous". It damages youngsters developing brain cells
Somewhere there must be a "righty" that understands why the world in general is in such a state, and where a policy of making the rich richer, and the poor into slaves takes us.
Rarer then griffon eggs of course, but we can hope.
Although the url title/headline is pretty grim. 'Punishment'. Pull the other one.
Cons: 75.3 -> 74.2
LAB: 85.4 -> 81.3
LDs: 35.3 -> 28.1
LAB lead: 5.74-> 3.84
Of course it's politically impossible. So the Chancellor - be he red or blue - takes one more shot of pills and tells himself the collapse probably won't happen on his watch.
If you really want to address the issue (as opposed to making cheap partisan ramps) you look at why the problem arose in the first place. But demographics aren't sexy in the way that partisan abuse is.
But a hundred 9/11s will do less damage than 1 Venezuela, 1 Argentina, 1 Greece. MUCH the biggest danger this country faces is economic. Certainly in what it presages for people's living standards and security.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Betting on Rochester getting very tight. UKIP easing CON tightening.
Best UKIP 8/11 William Hill
Best CON 7/4 Ladbrokes
Best LAB 10/1 PP
The deficit is still huge and yet a Conservative Prime Minister is set to announce a seven-day service for GP appointments on the NHS. One presumes this will be paid for by a tax on banker's bonuses...
If you are that lefty then you are probably voting for the wrong party! It doesn't have to be the End of Days. If we balance the budget there'd still be public spending to the tune of several hundreds of billions of pounds. That's not pin money. We need a national mindset change - an Alt/Ctrl/Delete on expectations. And on this the main parties are miles and miles apart.
Aditya Chakrabortty, the author, is putting part at least of the blame for Tesco’s difficulties down to inadequate auditing. I think it’s at least arguable that a significant part of the financial crash in 2008 or so was down to inadequate monitoring and many of the “difficulties” we’ve had in the West seem to be as a result of relying on the honesty of the people in the City and it’s equivalents elsewhere, and not establishing proper monitoring systems. Incidentally, I very much doubt that many in the City are personally dishonest; it’s the system in which they operate.
Extrapolating from that, this lefty at rate any believes that our welfare state isn’t unaffordable “because”; the problem lies in the way in which our financial markets are operated and managed.
Sadly, no-one, apart from once upon a time Vince Cable, seems to recognise this.
Of course, if Alan Johnson as Health Secretary hadn't completely buggered up the negotiations about a decade ago GPs would cost less and have to do more work. In the same way, if we hadn't had a deficit run for years prior to the crash we'd be in significantly better shape now.
It's also amusing (or would be, if the media had a memory longer than a goldfish) that Labour have suddenly stopped talking about Keynes. Funny that. They were so keen on him when his views meant spending more. But now, in the 'boom' with the economy growing, Keynes would advocate cutting far more drastically. And all at once he's dropped by Labour.
Saw the BBC News at Ten last night. Robinson was quite right that there appears to be a stark difference between the blues and reds when it comes to the deficit.
The best thing about the current batch of by elections is that two are in places where no by-elections have occurred this parliament.
In the last 4 by elections (2013 onwards):
Labour
+11.2 (NW)
+ 0.2 (SE)
- 1.6 (NE)
- 4.6 (east Mids)
UKIP
+24.2 (SE)
+24.2 (NE)
+22.2 (east Mids)
+14.5 (NW)
Tories have been uniformly down 9-13%, Lib Dems down 13-17%,
Those findings imply that the NW is especially resistant to UKIP and most supportive of Labour as a source of change. (London may well be the same)
V interesting to read Ashcroft's latest. Looking at the poll in detail it seems that Liberals could hold a couple more seats in their South West stronghold if they could persuade a percent or two of UKIP to switch. I know this sounds unlikely, but maybe they can come up with some local issue that could turn these voters? e.g. St Austell is a virtual tie (indeed too close to call in polling terms), yet UKIP on a whacking 25%.
UKIP Wandsworth @UKIP_Battersea Sep 28
Nigel Farage asks "When is the PM's speech this week?" - BBC asks "Wednesday, Why? - "just a thought you know" http://youtu.be/LQtW6IhNMT0 #UKIP
Arrivederci.
I have a very distant recollection of jokes being made at the time.
But the real point is that the gulf between Tory and Labour economic and tax policies is now at its widest since John Major and Neil Kinnock’s epic struggle in 1992. What voters will make of this remains to be seen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11129545/Allister-Heath-Clear-blue-water-opens-up-between-Osborne-and-Labour-on-economy.html
http://order-order.com/2014/09/30/dick-pic-tory-tipped-to-defect-to-ukip/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29415897
It criticises South Yorkshire police over the Rotherham disgrace.
"Children in care were found to be particularly vulnerable. One 13-year-old girl was found, with condoms, at the home of a sex offender."
George has outlined his plans, but has not as yet explained where the the major part of his projected welfare cuts are to fall.
Do you know? or indeed, does he?
BTW, don't confuse the current account deficit (£84bn) with the capital debt (roughly £1000bn) on which the government is paying about £50bn - I wish I could get someone to pay me that level of interest on my savings).
To me, the big 'wild card' now is Scotland - how 'the Vow' goes - and how it is seen by the electorate, both sides of the border.
The rest of the arguments we know - though it was interesting that on R4 Cameron was taking no prisoners on the NHS.....
And of course we had David Nicholson... his ego was the size of Jupiter.
TBH, the DoH was too big to be manageable - the same could be said for many HMG depts. Unfortunately when they get broken up - they tend to turn into stove pipes instead and all do their own thing. It's a no-win.
I’m not a keen student of the Press there, but nothing regarding arrests or even collar-feeling seems to have made it’s way into the national arena!
They could do two things though (1) set the state pension age at average life expectancy minus 9 years going forwards, to be reviewed every 10 years and (2) break the triple-lock of the highest of prices/earnings/inflation. It should just be CPI.
As private pensions then take the place of state pensions over the next 40-50 years, the state pension could then be gradually rolled back until it becomes means tested.
That should be sustainable.
Actually I agree on pensions - they need to be part of the deficit reduction. For me the way to do it is to raise the pensionable age in line with life expectancies. So probably nearer to 70 than current view as demographics change.
And we need to balance budgets year in year out as a habit. That is where the horrific public finance picture comes from. In a perfect world we wouldn't need a gilt market.
"Overall, NHS England has a budget of £95.6 billion to deliver the mandate. Within this overall funding, it has allocated £65.6 billion to local health economy commissioners: that is, CCGs and local authorities. This represents 2.6% growth compared to equivalent 2012/13 baselines – a real term increase of 0.6% at a time of limited resources."
http://www.england.nhs.uk/allocations-2013-14/
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/richard-barnes-ditches-tories-for-ukip-mayors-former-righthand-man-defects-9763938.html
18 or 28 (I forget which) suspects are being investigated by the police, but that's only the tip of the iceberg. It's not enough.
Don't wear them indoors.
Borrowing is not a problem, provided - like with military intervention, say - it is done for a clear purpose and with an end in sight.
Unlike some Conservatives Barnes is a keen advocate of the cultural festivals championed under Ken Livingstone’s mayoralty: “you can’t have a London that doesn’t enjoy Chinese New Year, Russian Winter Festival, Eid, Passion play in Trafalgar Square, carol concerts at Christmas. Celebrating the diversity that is there, that is the greater legacy.”....
http://www.mayorwatch.co.uk/gla-at-10-richard-barnes-interview/
@paulhutcheon: 1. Official Yes Scotland target for share of the vote: 65%
2. Yes vote in #indyref: 44.7%
@paulhutcheon: 1. Official Yes Scotland target for fundraising: £24m
2. Amount actually raised: circa £4.8m
@paulhutcheon: Leaked Yes Scotland business plan wanted standalone radio and TV stations, plus 5 newspaper endorsements
I'm guessing, but he might abolish the DCMS, abandon the 0.7% GDP target for aid and freeze the education budget for a couple of years too.
They just tend not to shout about it.
We need the ruling class to start thinking with their brains,not their dangly bits.
I'm just wondering are there any by-elections Labour will try to win? Is money really that tight?
heh,
"However, successes of the campaign include.....
The digital team is also deemed to have made an important contribution."
The UK economy grew by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2014, up from a previous estimate of 0.8%, the Office for National Statistics said today.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-09-30/uk-gdp-grew-by-0-9-in-second-quarter-of-2014/
What we don't know is whether opinion polls, even detailed constituency polls such as he is conducting, would pick up any such bonus, or whether it is something which shows up only in the actual vote. I don't know whether there has been any real research on this; it might be that the data is simply not there for previous elections. Nor do we know whether constituency polls are actually of much use.
My overall take on this is that they add a little bit of supplementary information, and are useful for betting purpose in a few constituencies, but that we need to be very aware of the margin of error in these polls and therefore not attribute to them a significance which exceeds their expected accuracy. Overall, you're probably better off going on headline national voting intention from a basket of reputable pollsters.
Essentially the game will be:
East Mids: Labour seems to have an edge (down 4.6% vs down 9-13%)
Scotland: perhaps some Labour loses?
SW: do you have the figures here? Potential for some Tory gains?
It all seems to come down to @Alanbrooke... He da man!
The ONS revisions also show that first quarter growth slower than previously thought - down from 0.8% previously thought to 0.7%.
Total govt spending is £700bn/year and pensions only make up £200bn of that.
Consider this, the state spends about £5,500 per pupil in a state secondary school. Assuming 30 pupils per class thats £165,000/yr.
Assume £75,000 for one and a half teachers, £10,000 for the room, £10,000 for the books and desks and £10,000 for anything else.
That leaves £60,000.
Could someone please explain what happens to this please.
twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/516870041061834752
Nice graph, but as I am a bit thick, could you explain what GDP actually measures?
Construction growth estimates continue to be as uselessl as ever
"construction which saw an increase of 0.7% (revised up 0.7 percentage points from the previous estimate)"
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2014/sum-q2-201-quarterly-national-accounts.html
As "any fule no", the figures are an estimate subject to revision.
Which means the previous quarters downgrade is liable to be a better guess than this quarters estimate.
As if Labour will fall for it. Game theory says do what you chief opponent least wants you to do.
When Labour starts taking election strategy advice from its key rival, it's in deep trouble.