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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – it’s something that has to be earned

One of the great hopes that the Tories have clung onto as their polling deficits continue is what’s known as “first time incumbency bonus” – the extra benefit that those MPs defending their seats for the first time have experienced in the past. The chart above shows the average increases in CON votes shares last time based on different categories of seat.

Read the full story here

bunnco

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Garethofthevale

Watched a bit of the conference highlights and thought she came across as incredibly self satisfied. "I went to a conference in Beijing" Whoop-de-doo

HYUFD

Fox news tells viewers to start target practicing to prepare for ISIS invasion of US soil
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/09/target-practicing-and-praying-fox-host-advises-viewers-to-prep-for-isis-invasion/

HYUFD

bunnco In which case Boris should be able to rip him to shreds in his speech

manofkent2014

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Doesn't mean that Nige hasn't got a prezzy for Dave on Wednesday. Doesn't mean its true either. This is the big problem for the Tories in this game. They haven't got a fecking clue what's actually going on.

Speedy

From previous thread:

Last post for the night, just to annoy Rod a little bit, I've finished adding the numbers from the new constituency polls.
Polls have been conducted in 76 constituencies now: 39 CON seats, 24 LD, and 13 LAB
The average movement is CON -9, LAB +5, LD -14, UKIP +16, GRN +2 , for a 7% swing from CON to LAB (not much different from national polls).
From those 76 seats, the Tories lose 25 and gain 7, Labour gains 32, LD lose 15, UKIP gains 4 and the Greens lose 1.

Inside the seats now, in Tory seats:
CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -13.5
UKIP +17

In LD seats

CON -7.5
LAB +7.5
LD -16
UKIP +12.5

In LAB seats

CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -10.5
UKIP +16.5

Interesting facts, Tories lose most of their vote in their own seats as well as Labour seats, a mirror image of that is the rise of UKIP in those same seats. Labour gains most in LD seats, and the LD lose also most in their own seats but least in Labour seats.
Bad news for the LD, the swing away from them towards the Tories and Labour is greater in their own seats.

MikeSmithson

Speedy said:

From previous thread:

Last post for the night, just to annoy Rod a little bit, I've finished adding the numbers from the new constituency polls.
Polls have been conducted in 76 constituencies now: 39 CON seats, 24 LD, and 13 LAB
The average movement is CON -9, LAB +5, LD -14, UKIP +16, GRN +2 , for a 7% swing from CON to LAB (not much different from national polls).
From those 76 seats, the Tories lose 25 and gain 7, Labour gains 32, LD lose 15, UKIP gains 4 and the Greens lose 1.

Inside the seats now, in Tory seats:
CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -13.5
UKIP +17

In LD seats

CON -7.5
LAB +7.5
LD -16
UKIP +12.5

In LAB seats

CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -10.5
UKIP +16.5

Interesting facts, Tories lose most of their vote in their own seats as well as Labour seats, a mirror image of that is the rise of UKIP in those same seats. Labour gains most in LD seats, and the LD lose also most in their own seats but least in Labour seats.
Bad news for the LD, the swing away from them towards the Tories and Labour is greater in their own seats.

Have you taken the second constituency voting responses or the first? That makes a massive difference.

RodCrosby

"low-grade London-located politico..."

I notice Iain Dale is not on the couch tonight...

MikeSmithson

manofkent2014 said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Doesn't mean that Nige hasn't got a prezzy for Dave on Wednesday. Doesn't mean its true either. This is the big problem for the Tories in this game. They haven't got a fecking clue what's actually going on.

Maybe. But what you have done is to galvanise the Tories in a manner that I have not seen before. I've never seen activists so angry and so motivated. If they choose the right candidate in Rochester then UKIP and Mr. Reckless will be stuffed.

Speedy

MikeSmithson said:

Speedy said:

From previous thread:

Last post for the night, just to annoy Rod a little bit, I've finished adding the numbers from the new constituency polls.
Polls have been conducted in 76 constituencies now: 39 CON seats, 24 LD, and 13 LAB
The average movement is CON -9, LAB +5, LD -14, UKIP +16, GRN +2 , for a 7% swing from CON to LAB (not much different from national polls).
From those 76 seats, the Tories lose 25 and gain 7, Labour gains 32, LD lose 15, UKIP gains 4 and the Greens lose 1.

Inside the seats now, in Tory seats:
CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -13.5
UKIP +17

In LD seats

CON -7.5
LAB +7.5
LD -16
UKIP +12.5

In LAB seats

CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -10.5
UKIP +16.5

Interesting facts, Tories lose most of their vote in their own seats as well as Labour seats, a mirror image of that is the rise of UKIP in those same seats. Labour gains most in LD seats, and the LD lose also most in their own seats but least in Labour seats.
Bad news for the LD, the swing away from them towards the Tories and Labour is greater in their own seats.

Have you taken the second constituency voting responses or the first? That makes a massive difference.

I've taken the second ones alright.
The ones most favorable to the LD.

HYUFD

David Cameron 'fat arse Reckless' http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/09/angry-daves-jibe-at-fat-arse-reckless/

Ken Clarke states that UKIP attracts those who have had disappointing lives and Boris makes vacuum cleaner innuendo

Speedy

HYUFD said:

David Cameron 'fat arse Reckless' http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/09/angry-daves-jibe-at-fat-arse-reckless/

Ken Clarke states that UKIP attracts those who have had disappointing lives and Boris makes vacuum cleaner innuendo

Risky strategy to insult voters.
Goodnight.

MikeSmithson

Speedy said:

MikeSmithson said:

Speedy said:

From previous thread:

Last post for the night, just to annoy Rod a little bit, I've finished adding the numbers from the new constituency polls.
Polls have been conducted in 76 constituencies now: 39 CON seats, 24 LD, and 13 LAB
The average movement is CON -9, LAB +5, LD -14, UKIP +16, GRN +2 , for a 7% swing from CON to LAB (not much different from national polls).
From those 76 seats, the Tories lose 25 and gain 7, Labour gains 32, LD lose 15, UKIP gains 4 and the Greens lose 1.

Inside the seats now, in Tory seats:
CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -13.5
UKIP +17

In LD seats

CON -7.5
LAB +7.5
LD -16
UKIP +12.5

In LAB seats

CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -10.5
UKIP +16.5

Interesting facts, Tories lose most of their vote in their own seats as well as Labour seats, a mirror image of that is the rise of UKIP in those same seats. Labour gains most in LD seats, and the LD lose also most in their own seats but least in Labour seats.
Bad news for the LD, the swing away from them towards the Tories and Labour is greater in their own seats.

Have you taken the second constituency voting responses or the first? That makes a massive difference.

I've taken the second ones alright.
The ones most favorable to the LD.

Have you used the Ashcroft aggregates or done it seat by seat yourself? You LD seats numbers are wrong.

Speedy

MikeSmithson said:

Speedy said:

MikeSmithson said:

Speedy said:

From previous thread:

Last post for the night, just to annoy Rod a little bit, I've finished adding the numbers from the new constituency polls.
Polls have been conducted in 76 constituencies now: 39 CON seats, 24 LD, and 13 LAB
The average movement is CON -9, LAB +5, LD -14, UKIP +16, GRN +2 , for a 7% swing from CON to LAB (not much different from national polls).
From those 76 seats, the Tories lose 25 and gain 7, Labour gains 32, LD lose 15, UKIP gains 4 and the Greens lose 1.

Inside the seats now, in Tory seats:
CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -13.5
UKIP +17

In LD seats

CON -7.5
LAB +7.5
LD -16
UKIP +12.5

In LAB seats

CON -9.5
LAB +4
LD -10.5
UKIP +16.5

Interesting facts, Tories lose most of their vote in their own seats as well as Labour seats, a mirror image of that is the rise of UKIP in those same seats. Labour gains most in LD seats, and the LD lose also most in their own seats but least in Labour seats.
Bad news for the LD, the swing away from them towards the Tories and Labour is greater in their own seats.

Have you taken the second constituency voting responses or the first? That makes a massive difference.

I've taken the second ones alright.
The ones most favorable to the LD.

Have you used the Ashcroft aggregates or done it seat by seat yourself? You LD seats numbers are wrong.

Seat by seat, all 76 constituencies.
I keep a record of all constituency polls since the first one got published in late 2010.
I only use the latest numbers in each constituency.

RodCrosby

As was shown in 2009/10, constituency polls are largely bunkum...

Speedy

RodCrosby said:

As was shown in 2009/10, constituency polls are largely bunkum...

Your complaints to Lord Ashcroft and Survation.

Speedy

@MikeSmithson

I have located your problem, look at Ashcroft latest polls and compare the changes from the actual result.
Example for Mid Dorset he has Labour on 8%, down 13% from 2010, while in 2010 Labour got 5.9%, so they are actually up 2%, here look :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid_Dorset_and_North_Poole_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Wider-Lib-Dem-battleground-September-2014.pdf

I've seen the same issue for Eastleigh too, despite saying that the difference from the byelection is in italics while the difference from 2010 is in red he puts the same numbers in with the exception of UKIP.

HYUFD

Speedy Indeed, but as OGH points out Tories in no mood to compliment UKIP, night!

Speedy

@MikeSmithson

In fact he has done the same mistake back in June with Camborne , he had Labour on 24% down 8% from 2010 while they got 16% in 2010 so it should be up 8%. Same with Chippenham that month too, it should be Labour up 5% not down 5% from 2010. Solihull too.
Here look:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Con-Lib-Dem-battleground-June-20141.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camborne_and_Redruth_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chippenham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

manofkent2014

MikeSmithson said:

manofkent2014 said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Doesn't mean that Nige hasn't got a prezzy for Dave on Wednesday. Doesn't mean its true either. This is the big problem for the Tories in this game. They haven't got a fecking clue what's actually going on.

Maybe. But what you have done is to galvanise the Tories in a manner that I have not seen before. I've never seen activists so angry and so motivated. If they choose the right candidate in Rochester then UKIP and Mr. Reckless will be stuffed.

Angry people make mistakes. Just look at the newspapers. The Tories are losing the plot. They are having a Kevin Keegan moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXpUdBlRZe8

Considering who they chose to take on Farage (what fool suggested a UKIP reject) and Carswell, the Tories don't seem to have much clue how to counter this.

manofkent2014

HYUFD said:

David Cameron 'fat arse Reckless' http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2014/09/angry-daves-jibe-at-fat-arse-reckless/

Ken Clarke states that UKIP attracts those who have had disappointing lives and Boris makes vacuum cleaner innuendo

The most disappointing thing about my life is having to suffer the senseless ramblings of archaic backward looking elitists like Clarke

MikeSmithson

RodCrosby said:

As was shown in 2009/10, constituency polls are largely bunkum...

Rod. There has not been constituency polling on this scale and in this manner ahead of any previous general election so assertion like yours are bunkum.

We are taking about dozens of separate single seat polls with samples of 1000.

Don't make a fool of yourself by showing your ignorance.

RodCrosby

MikeSmithson said:

RodCrosby said:

As was shown in 2009/10, constituency polls are largely bunkum...

Rod. There has not been constituency polling on this scale and in this manner ahead of any previous general election so assertion like yours are bunkum.

We are taking about dozens of separate single seat polls with samples of 1000.

Don't make a fool of yourself by showing your ignorance.

Yawn. Polls this far out are always bunkum, be they national, constituency or whatever.

Do you remember the pointless bandwidth taken up with them 2008-10?

Besides, they are methodologically flawed, with respect to the LDs at least, in that they don't mention candidates by name.

Your own point, a few days ago, IIRC...

Stereotomy

RodCrosby said:

MikeSmithson said:

RodCrosby said:

As was shown in 2009/10, constituency polls are largely bunkum...

Rod. There has not been constituency polling on this scale and in this manner ahead of any previous general election so assertion like yours are bunkum.

We are taking about dozens of separate single seat polls with samples of 1000.

Don't make a fool of yourself by showing your ignorance.

Yawn. Polls this far out are always bunkum, be they national, constituency or whatever.

Do you remember the pointless bandwidth taken up with them 2008-10?

Besides, they are methodologically flawed, with respect to the LDs at least, in that they don't mention candidates by name.

Your own point, a few days ago, IIRC...

There's a difference between "not perfect" and "bunkum"

RodCrosby

Stereotomy said:

RodCrosby said:

MikeSmithson said:

RodCrosby said:

As was shown in 2009/10, constituency polls are largely bunkum...

Rod. There has not been constituency polling on this scale and in this manner ahead of any previous general election so assertion like yours are bunkum.

We are taking about dozens of separate single seat polls with samples of 1000.

Don't make a fool of yourself by showing your ignorance.

Yawn. Polls this far out are always bunkum, be they national, constituency or whatever.

Do you remember the pointless bandwidth taken up with them 2008-10?

Besides, they are methodologically flawed, with respect to the LDs at least, in that they don't mention candidates by name.

Your own point, a few days ago, IIRC...

There's a difference between "not perfect" and "bunkum"

When seats may turn on 1 vote, it amounts to the same.

old_labour

Radical Islamist extremists and neo-Nazis could be banned from making public appearances including on television under a gagging order proposed by the Conservatives with echoes of the broadcast ban that once applied to the voice of Gerry Adams.

The restrictions are expected to include banning individuals from speaking at public events, protests and meetings, having to inform the police in advance of any public event, protest or meeting that they plan to attend, and banning individuals from particular public locations.

May also wants to include restrictions on banned individuals from broadcasting, from associating with named people, and restricting their use of social media or the internet by requiring them to submit in advance any proposed publication to the police.

manofkent2014

old_labour said:

Radical Islamist extremists and neo-Nazis could be banned from making public appearances including on television under a gagging order proposed by the Conservatives with echoes of the broadcast ban that once applied to the voice of Gerry Adams.

The restrictions are expected to include banning individuals from speaking at public events, protests and meetings, having to inform the police in advance of any public event, protest or meeting that they plan to attend, and banning individuals from particular public locations.

May also wants to include restrictions on banned individuals from broadcasting, from associating with named people, and restricting their use of social media or the internet by requiring them to submit in advance any proposed publication to the police.

May proposes laws to allow Labour to ban May. Sadly I suspect she's doing it to hide her abject failure in achieving her primary targets as Home Secretary. May is dangerous as well as incompetent. Ironic that she has heavily curtailed SaS (stop and search) laws only to propose her own SaS (Silence and Suppress) laws.

Governments should not have such powers

fitalass

"I’d add another big reason. The Tories are currently the main party of government and there’s data to suggest that incumbency is less of a benefit."

That would also suggest that the Libdems are also going to find that their previous incumbency benefit in seats is also now going to have far less of impact as they stand on their record as partners in the current Coalition Government. One other factor behine why so many MP's gained a first time incumbency bounce as both Libdems and Labour MP's over the last decade. And its a reason I have yet to see ever discussed here on PB, I definitely think there is an element of voters disliking or being reluctant to embrace a message that they have made a huge fundamental mistake by ousting their previous MP and the party they represent at a last GE. And that again gives the first time incumbent far more leeway that would normally expect if all GE's are local.

fitalass

Looking at the errors in this post, think I will go back to using my trusty old laptop keyboard.

fitalass said:

"I’d add another big reason. The Tories are currently the main party of government and there’s data to suggest that incumbency is less of a benefit."

That would also suggest that the Libdems are also going to find that their previous incumbency benefit in seats is also now going to have far less of impact as they stand on their record as partners in the current Coalition Government. One other factor behine why so many MP's gained a first time incumbency bounce as both Libdems and Labour MP's over the last decade. And its a reason I have yet to see ever discussed here on PB, I definitely think there is an element of voters disliking or being reluctant to embrace a message that they have made a huge fundamental mistake by ousting their previous MP and the party they represent at a last GE. And that again gives the first time incumbent far more leeway that would normally expect if all GE's are local.

edmundintokyo

manofkent2014 said:

old_labour said:

Radical Islamist extremists and neo-Nazis could be banned from making public appearances including on television under a gagging order proposed by the Conservatives with echoes of the broadcast ban that once applied to the voice of Gerry Adams.

The restrictions are expected to include banning individuals from speaking at public events, protests and meetings, having to inform the police in advance of any public event, protest or meeting that they plan to attend, and banning individuals from particular public locations.

May also wants to include restrictions on banned individuals from broadcasting, from associating with named people, and restricting their use of social media or the internet by requiring them to submit in advance any proposed publication to the police.

May proposes laws to allow Labour to ban May. Sadly I suspect she's doing it to hide her abject failure in achieving her primary targets as Home Secretary. May is dangerous as well as incompetent. Ironic that she has heavily curtailed SaS (stop and search) laws only to propose her own SaS (Silence and Suppress) laws.

Governments should not have such powers

On the plus side, the more politicians do stupid shit like this the more people will switch to censorship-proof communication systems (diaspora etc).

AndyJS

What happened regarding Iain Dale's "normally reliable source"?

RodCrosby

AndyJS said:

What happened regarding Iain Dale's "normally reliable source"?

He's going to sleep on it, and resolve his internal conflicts tomorrow?

CarlottaVance

The Brooks Newmark Mirror entrapment story isn't going away - with the Mirror apologising to the young women whose images were used as it emerges that their "investigative reporter" works for Paul Staines:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/30/sunday-mirror-women-photos-sexting-brooks-newmark

CarlottaVance

Scottish subsample watch:

Łab: 28
SNP: 44

No major shifts in the "which party best to deal with"X" post the Labour Conference:

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/rtysykgb6z/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290914.pdf

Casino_Royale

RodCrosby said:

AndyJS said:

What happened regarding Iain Dale's "normally reliable source"?

He's going to sleep on it, and resolve his internal conflicts tomorrow?

Betting on an Iain Dale tip is usually a surefire way to lose money. This is the man who thought he was going to win Norfolk North in 2005.

He suffered over an 8% swing against him, and lost by over 10,000 votes.

SouthamObserver

Steven Norris?

Charles

manofkent2014 said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Doesn't mean that Nige hasn't got a prezzy for Dave on Wednesday. Doesn't mean its true either. This is the big problem for the Tories in this game. They haven't got a fecking clue what's actually going on.

You mean Farage is making it up as he goes along TM?

:-)

SouthamObserver

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

Scott_P

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

@Sun_Politics: Boris Johnson’s former deputy mayor poised to be Ukip's latest Tory defector: http://t.co/oW4fKsTBZf

Charles

CarlottaVance said:

The Brooks Newmark Mirror entrapment story isn't going away - with the Mirror apologising to the young women whose images were used as it emerges that their "investigative reporter" works for Paul Staines:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/30/sunday-mirror-women-photos-sexting-brooks-newmark

Ah! I knew it wasn't the Mirror's fault.

Course not. They were just a vehicle for that dreadful right wing evil wicked heartless et et Guido Fawkes

hah!

Casino_Royale

Scott_P said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

@Sun_Politics: Boris Johnson’s former deputy mayor poised to be Ukip's latest Tory defector: http://t.co/oW4fKsTBZf

He isn't even a Tory anymore. He stood against them in Hillingdon in May this year as an independent. He didn't get very much support.

JohnO

Scott_P said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

@Sun_Politics: Boris Johnson’s former deputy mayor poised to be Ukip's latest Tory defector: http://t.co/oW4fKsTBZf

No Paisley pyjamas he...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2432797/Richard-Barnes-ex-Boris-Johnson-deputy-embarrassed-naked-photos-posted-Facebook.html

AlastairMeeks

Off topic, but to update Richard Nabavi who asked, Ladbrokes have brought their Scottish seat markets back, so I'll be working on my piece over the next few days (I'm back at work as from yesterday, so my time is not my own any more).

Charles

Scott_P said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

@Sun_Politics: Boris Johnson’s former deputy mayor poised to be Ukip's latest Tory defector: http://t.co/oW4fKsTBZf

I've just read his wiki page, and I still don't know who he is!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Barnes_(British_politician)

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

@Sun_Politics: Boris Johnson’s former deputy mayor poised to be Ukip's latest Tory defector: http://t.co/oW4fKsTBZf

Even more obscure than I thought. Was he one of those Boris was paying £100,000 a year?

anotherDave

MikeSmithson said:

manofkent2014 said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Doesn't mean that Nige hasn't got a prezzy for Dave on Wednesday. Doesn't mean its true either. This is the big problem for the Tories in this game. They haven't got a fecking clue what's actually going on.

Maybe. But what you have done is to galvanise the Tories in a manner that I have not seen before. I've never seen activists so angry and so motivated. If they choose the right candidate in Rochester then UKIP and Mr. Reckless will be stuffed.

Mr Kellner expects Mr Reckless to win:

"Reckless will be defending his seat, Rochester and Strood, just a few months after Ukip outpolled the Conservatives locally by around two-to-one in the European parliament elections in May."

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/29/ukip-snp-and-risks-parliamentary-paralysis/

CarlottaVance

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Brooks Newmark Mirror entrapment story isn't going away - with the Mirror apologising to the young women whose images were used as it emerges that their "investigative reporter" works for Paul Staines:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/30/sunday-mirror-women-photos-sexting-brooks-newmark

Ah! I knew it wasn't the Mirror's fault.

Course not. They were just a vehicle for that dreadful right wing evil wicked heartless et et Guido Fawkes

hah!

The Mirror's editorial judgement is still on the line, running a story both the Sun and the Mail had turned down, from a journalist who has a line in "Tory sex pests" stories:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9122631/the-commons-touch/

OblitusSumMe

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

One dry winter does not a drought make. After last winter - a wet record - groundwater levels have been recharged to full and it would take two successive dry winters to bring on a drought.

The skill of the long range rainfall forecasts is effectively zero (for Britain, but with large areas of skill in the Tropics).

Keep calm and carry on.

Socrates

manofkent2014 said:

old_labour said:

Radical Islamist extremists and neo-Nazis could be banned from making public appearances including on television under a gagging order proposed by the Conservatives with echoes of the broadcast ban that once applied to the voice of Gerry Adams.

The restrictions are expected to include banning individuals from speaking at public events, protests and meetings, having to inform the police in advance of any public event, protest or meeting that they plan to attend, and banning individuals from particular public locations.

May also wants to include restrictions on banned individuals from broadcasting, from associating with named people, and restricting their use of social media or the internet by requiring them to submit in advance any proposed publication to the police.

May proposes laws to allow Labour to ban May. Sadly I suspect she's doing it to hide her abject failure in achieving her primary targets as Home Secretary. May is dangerous as well as incompetent. Ironic that she has heavily curtailed SaS (stop and search) laws only to propose her own SaS (Silence and Suppress) laws.

Governments should not have such powers

Indeed. I detest Islamists and Nazis but we live in a free society with free speech a foundation. May is an authoritarian.

Charles

CarlottaVance said:

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

The Brooks Newmark Mirror entrapment story isn't going away - with the Mirror apologising to the young women whose images were used as it emerges that their "investigative reporter" works for Paul Staines:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/30/sunday-mirror-women-photos-sexting-brooks-newmark

Ah! I knew it wasn't the Mirror's fault.

Course not. They were just a vehicle for that dreadful right wing evil wicked heartless et et Guido Fawkes

hah!

The Mirror's editorial judgement is still on the line, running a story both the Sun and the Mail had turned down, from a journalist who has a line in "Tory sex pests" stories:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9122631/the-commons-touch/

For the avoidance of doubt, I was being sarcastic!

I agree on the editorial judgement issue. They should possible have asked some questions on how this freelancer got the story as well. (Is that something newspapers have an obligation to do?)

Easterross

Morning all, has Iain Dale defected to UKIP yet? If not, a pity.

I do hope we are going to see Trinity Mirror journalists pursued by the police and others just as those at the Sun/News of the World were for phone hacking.

chestnut

CarlottaVance said:

Scottish subsample watch:

Łab: 28
SNP: 44

No major shifts in the "which party best to deal with"X" post the Labour Conference:

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/rtysykgb6z/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290914.pdf

Add in the Tories on 34 in the South, and two of the certainties of most elections - the South votes Tory, Scotland votes Labour - seem in considerable doubt.

This is going to go to the wire.

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

@Sun_Politics: Boris Johnson’s former deputy mayor poised to be Ukip's latest Tory defector: http://t.co/oW4fKsTBZf

Not another willy waver!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2432797/Richard-Barnes-ex-Boris-Johnson-deputy-embarrassed-naked-photos-posted-Facebook.html

SouthamObserver

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

One dry winter does not a drought make. After last winter - a wet record - groundwater levels have been recharged to full and it would take two successive dry winters to bring on a drought.

The skill of the long range rainfall forecasts is effectively zero (for Britain, but with large areas of skill in the Tropics).

Keep calm and carry on.

Groundwater levels are receding. We're at 12 inches below the surface currently. I'd like a few average years now. Swinging from drought to flood to drought again is not British.

DavidL

I wonder if the first time incumbency bonus is, at least in part, a negative for the opposition rather than a great benefit for the winner. Under the last government public money was poured onto sitting MPs allowing them a £10,000 communication allowance and paying for an office and full time staff in the constituency.

A party that has lost the seat will inevitably find its profile much reduced. Their former MP can no longer get his or her name in the papers so readily, the money for the propaganda is no longer available and much of the money that would otherwise have gone on electoral materials is suddenly being used for rent. Staffing levels are also likely to have been cut.

If you have a very strongly motivated former MP, such as Nick, and an organisation with sufficient volunteers no doubt these disadvantages can be overcome but in most seats it really should give the sitting MP an advantage. Of course it would help if the newly elected MP also worked the constituency hard as well but holding a seat really should be easier than taking it in the first place.

SouthamObserver

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Easterross

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

I thought they have been forecasting heavy rain for the south of England this coming weekend together with a fall in temperatures.

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.

Charles

SouthamObserver said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

One dry winter does not a drought make. After last winter - a wet record - groundwater levels have been recharged to full and it would take two successive dry winters to bring on a drought.

The skill of the long range rainfall forecasts is effectively zero (for Britain, but with large areas of skill in the Tropics).

Keep calm and carry on.

Groundwater levels are receding. We're at 12 inches below the surface currently. I'd like a few average years now. Swinging from drought to flood to drought again is not British.

If groundwater levels were at surface levels you'd be living in a marsh!

richardDodd

The UK needs more serious reservoirs..

JosiasJessop

richardDodd said:

The UK needs more serious reservoirs..

We had one last winter - the Somerset Levels ...

DavidL

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.

Surely amongst Ed's 130 odd appointments there is a shadow minister for droughts (and no doubt a different one for floods, for insufficiently interesting weather etc etc).

foxinsoxuk

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.

Who says Labour never delivers?

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.

Surely amongst Ed's 130 odd appointments there is a shadow minister for droughts (and no doubt a different one for floods, for insufficiently interesting weather etc etc).

Ah, but a shadow minister has to have someone to shadow. Another fail by Cameron!

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.

Who says Labour never delivers?

That was in 1976. Are there any more recent examples?

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

Sean_F

SouthamObserver said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

One dry winter does not a drought make. After last winter - a wet record - groundwater levels have been recharged to full and it would take two successive dry winters to bring on a drought.

The skill of the long range rainfall forecasts is effectively zero (for Britain, but with large areas of skill in the Tropics).

Keep calm and carry on.

Groundwater levels are receding. We're at 12 inches below the surface currently. I'd like a few average years now. Swinging from drought to flood to drought again is not British.

To be honest, I'm not sure why UKIP would want Richard Barnes.

Sean_F

MikeSmithson said:

manofkent2014 said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Doesn't mean that Nige hasn't got a prezzy for Dave on Wednesday. Doesn't mean its true either. This is the big problem for the Tories in this game. They haven't got a fecking clue what's actually going on.

Maybe. But what you have done is to galvanise the Tories in a manner that I have not seen before. I've never seen activists so angry and so motivated. If they choose the right candidate in Rochester then UKIP and Mr. Reckless will be stuffed.

The Tories certainly have a good chance in Rochester. But coastal Kent is now very strong for UKIP. Both sides will have plenty of activists.

Innocent_Abroad

richardDodd said:

The UK needs more serious reservoirs..

It's all Labour's fault - they only built frivolous ones...

nigel4england

MikeSmithson said:

manofkent2014 said:

bunnco said:

UKIP defection tomorrow is not an MP but a low-grade London-located politico of limited importance to the capital and without a wider franchise. Announcement timed to spoil Boris' big day rather than Cameron's keynote on Wednesday.

Evening papers to lead with Cameron gaffe - not significant but calculated to irritate him.

Bunnco - Your Man On The Spot

Doesn't mean that Nige hasn't got a prezzy for Dave on Wednesday. Doesn't mean its true either. This is the big problem for the Tories in this game. They haven't got a fecking clue what's actually going on.

Maybe. But what you have done is to galvanise the Tories in a manner that I have not seen before. I've never seen activists so angry and so motivated. If they choose the right candidate in Rochester then UKIP and Mr. Reckless will be stuffed.

Doesn't matter how angry and motivated they are or which candidate they choose if the electorate are just as angry and motivated.

CarlottaVance

Chortle......

Councils move to collect unpaid tax from thousands who signed up for indyref vote

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/poorest-face-punishment-after-voting-in-referendum.25465772

Edit - the URL reflects the earlier headline someone clearly thought better of......

Charles

CarlottaVance said:

Chortle......

Councils move to collect unpaid tax from thousands who signed up for indyref vote

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/poorest-face-punishment-after-voting-in-referendum.25465772

That's just going to encourage people to disengage again.

You'd think there would be a better way to collect tax than directly linking it to the electoral register

FattyBolger

I don't like this new May broadcasting censorship proposal one bit. Unconservative and unEnglish. The govt decides who the people are entitled to hear. Frightening. Compare with current approved candidates only row in Hong Kong. It is on the same lines in principle. Why do they persist in pissing me off?

CarlottaVance

Charles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chortle......

Councils move to collect unpaid tax from thousands who signed up for indyref vote

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/poorest-face-punishment-after-voting-in-referendum.25465772

That's just going to encourage people to disengage again.

You'd think there would be a better way to collect tax than directly linking it to the electoral register

Cosla, the umbrella group that ­represents many councils, said local authorities were within their rights to use "whatever sources of information are available legally to pursue unpaid debt".

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

Hmmm. I am not sure the Labour government forced Boris to appoint Richard Barnes; or to create so many deputy mayor positions. But Boris has been very generous to his helpers with taxpayers' money. Presumably the argument is if you want good people you have to pay good salaries. So what did Bozza see in a non-entity such as Barnesy that everyone else missed?

JosiasJessop

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

Some years ago, in similar circumstances, a Labour government appointed a “Minister for Drought”. As wikipedia puts it, days later heavy rainfall caused floods.

Surely amongst Ed's 130 odd appointments there is a shadow minister for droughts (and no doubt a different one for floods, for insufficiently interesting weather etc etc).

Almost certainly. But Labour have nothing dealing with sexual abuse of boys, or the domestic abuse of men, despite both being significant (and often hidden) problems.

Oddly, Labour do have the equivalent for girls and women...

[Deleted User]

Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?

This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.

We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.

The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

So what did Bozza see in a non-entity such as Barnesy that everyone else missed?

I'm sure the Hacks will delight in questioning Boris if it is Mr Barnes.......UKIP helping Cameron....whodathunkit?

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

So what did Bozza see in a non-entity such as Barnesy that everyone else missed?

I'm sure the Hacks will delight in questioning Boris if it is Mr Barnes.......UKIP helping Cameron....whodathunkit?

Spot on. This would be a story about Boris, not Dave.

Innocent_Abroad

Patrick said:

Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?

This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.

We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.

The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.

Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to address this.

foxinsoxuk

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

Hmmm. I am not sure the Labour government forced Boris to appoint Richard Barnes; or to create so many deputy mayor positions. But Boris has been very generous to his helpers with taxpayers' money. Presumably the argument is if you want good people you have to pay good salaries. So what did Bozza see in a non-entity such as Barnesy that everyone else missed?

Perhaps it was sympathy for someone with similar trouble keeping his trousers on?

Freggles

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

So what did Bozza see in a non-entity such as Barnesy that everyone else missed?

I'm sure the Hacks will delight in questioning Boris if it is Mr Barnes.......UKIP helping Cameron....whodathunkit?

They don't want the Tories to have a popular leader

SouthamObserver

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

In other news, it may soon be tome to start thinking drought again. There's been no significant rainfall in the midlands for a month now and there's no sign of a change. The longer term forecast is for it to remain relatively dry. Should that turn out to be right it is going to mean shortages next summer. We need some serious, sustained downpours.

One dry winter does not a drought make. After last winter - a wet record - groundwater levels have been recharged to full and it would take two successive dry winters to bring on a drought.

The skill of the long range rainfall forecasts is effectively zero (for Britain, but with large areas of skill in the Tropics).

Keep calm and carry on.

Groundwater levels are receding. We're at 12 inches below the surface currently. I'd like a few average years now. Swinging from drought to flood to drought again is not British.

If groundwater levels were at surface levels you'd be living in a marsh!

We were a few months ago. Now the talk is of possible water shortages next summer. It's ridiculous.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

So what did Bozza see in a non-entity such as Barnesy that everyone else missed?

I'm sure the Hacks will delight in questioning Boris if it is Mr Barnes.......UKIP helping Cameron....whodathunkit?

Spot on. This would be a story about Boris, not Dave.

Perhaps Boris will expand on his previous comments:

Boris Johnson tonight launched an extraordinary attack on Tories who have defected to UKIP, claiming they were the sort of people who injure themselves having sex with vacuum cleaners.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2773868/Boris-building-Cameron-prepares-parade-star-player-Tory-conference-quell-UKIP-jitters.html

Financier

YouGov Polls

The average YouGov polls for September, show that the Cons are losing ~25% of their 2010VI, Labour~20% and LDs >70%.

Cons lose to UKIP (up 2pts in Sept), Labour and Green (both no change).
LAB: lose to UKIP - up 1 pt, to Cons and Green, both up half a point.
LDs lose to LAB and Cons (both down 1 pt), to UKIP (up 2.5 pt) and Greens (up 1 pt).,

SouthamObserver

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, Boris paid this bloke £100,000 a year. For what, Bozza?

Ask the Labour Government that created the post:

The Deputy Mayor of London is a member of the London Assembly appointed by the Mayor of London in accordance with the Greater London Authority Act 1999.[1] No particular duties are specified by the Act, except to be available as temporary Mayor during a vacancy or temporary incapacity of the Mayor.[2] The Deputy Mayor's salary in 2007-08 is £90,954.[3]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

Hmmm. I am not sure the Labour government forced Boris to appoint Richard Barnes; or to create so many deputy mayor positions. But Boris has been very generous to his helpers with taxpayers' money. Presumably the argument is if you want good people you have to pay good salaries. So what did Bozza see in a non-entity such as Barnesy that everyone else missed?

Perhaps it was sympathy for someone with similar trouble keeping his trousers on?

If it is him the press conference should be fun for all kinds of reasons, but maybe slightly uncomfortable for Bozza and Nige. I wonder how much due diligence UKIP has done here. Maybe they'll have a last minute change of heart and reassign this defection to the lowest of low profile drawers.

OldKingCole

"Boris Johnson tonight launched an extraordinary attack on Tories who have defected to UKIP, claiming they were the sort of people who injure themselves having sex with vacuum cleaners."


How does Boris come by that bit of knowledge?

DecrepitJohnL

antifrank said:

Off topic, but to update Richard Nabavi who asked, Ladbrokes have brought their Scottish seat markets back, so I'll be working on my piece over the next few days (I'm back at work as from yesterday, so my time is not my own any more).

Just in time, if Osborne's buggering about with pensions again.

[Deleted User]

Innocent_Abroad said:

Patrick said:

Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?

This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.

We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.

The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.

Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to address this.

Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11129108/Mass-default-looms-as-world-sinks-beneath-a-sea-of-debt.html

How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Chortle......

Councils move to collect unpaid tax from thousands who signed up for indyref vote

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/poorest-face-punishment-after-voting-in-referendum.25465772

Edit - the URL reflects the earlier headline someone clearly thought better of......

Typical thick Labour , you would think they had enough worries re losing voters

Sean_F

OldKingCole said:

"Boris Johnson tonight launched an extraordinary attack on Tories who have defected to UKIP, claiming they were the sort of people who injure themselves having sex with vacuum cleaners."


How does Boris come by that bit of knowledge?

Like the Bishop of Bath and Wells, he's had everything and done everything, animal, vegetable, and mineral

bigjohnowls

Latest BJESUS

30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 218 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

bigjohnowls

Every BJESUS

17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) Ed is crap is PM
16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)

bigjohnowls

With the final YG of September tonight any Lab lead or indeed a CON lead of 1 will result in YG September average lead of 4%

Roger

Did I hear correctly that Grant Shapps repeatedly called Mark Reckless "a liar"?

Did he do this in costume as 'Michael Green the promoter of get 'rich quick scams' or as Tory Party chairman promoter of get rich quick scams for the already rich? I'm confused.....

OT Anyone heading to Nice will find it's taken on the appearance of a police state. It's awash with uniformed men with guns and traffic hold ups. Best avoided.

DecrepitJohnL

Patrick said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Patrick said:

Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?

This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.

We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.

The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.

Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to address this.

Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11129108/Mass-default-looms-as-world-sinks-beneath-a-sea-of-debt.html

How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.

Then we must hope the next Chancellor, who will, I gather from recent threads, be from either UKIP or the SNP, is not as bad as the last bloke who managed to kill off the recovery he inherited from Labour. George something-or-other, I think his name was.

Financier

bigjohnowls said:

With the final YG of September tonight any Lab lead or indeed a CON lead of 1 will result in YG September average lead of 4%

The average Labour lead for YG polls published in September is 3.84

Innocent_Abroad

Patrick said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Patrick said:

Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?

This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.

We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.

The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.

Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to address this.

Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11129108/Mass-default-looms-as-world-sinks-beneath-a-sea-of-debt.html

How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.

In the first place, Labour aren't going to save the NHS. That's their ramping.

In the second place, if the economic danger is not just to us but also to others (and if it is a danger, then I agree that's the kind of danger it is) we are looking at the fulfilment of Marx's prophesy that capitalism will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. I doubt Osborne is big enough to resist the tide of history.

Or that you meant to agree with Marx.

bigjohnowls

So GE 2015 is 7 months away next week.

The YG trend from March to September ie the last 7 months shows average LAB leads of

4,4,3,4,3,3,4.

Or as ARSE would put it One essential that will not change is that :

Ed Miliband Will Never Become Prime Minister

We will see but MCARSE was wrong I believe ARSE will be wrong at GE 2015

[Deleted User]

DecrepitJohnL said:

Patrick said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Patrick said:

Mike can we have a thread sometime soon on economic policy and its electoral implications?

This is ultimately the big issue is it not? We have Ozzy who sees the bigger problem in a competitve world very clearly and is pushing hard to eliminate the deficit entirely (but therefore with all the attendant 'nasty Tory' noise) and Ed n Ed who are in full-on 'nice Labour' mode and promising to spend spend spend on more lovely nurses. We have the starkest electoral choice on economics for a very long time.

We saw in Scotland that 'jam tomorrow' sells well among the hard of understanding.

The 'Conservative or bust' slogan seems about right to me. I fear very much that the country looks set to choose to go bust.

Nice ramp, Patrick. Indeed, there are only two kinds of voters in England: Tory activists and the enemies of England. Teresa May is belatedly moving to address this.

Well - the macroeconomic picture is alot more important to me than all the other issues put together. I think few people realise just how much danger we and the rest of the world are in right now. This guy gets it:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11129108/Mass-default-looms-as-world-sinks-beneath-a-sea-of-debt.html

How important is 'saving the NHS' when your whole country has gone all Venezuela? Ed Miliband is a nice man. He's also exceptionally dangerous because he'll cause profound damage to our economy and national finances. If life after New Labour is 'austerity' you wait until life after New New Labour. It ain't gonna be pretty. For you and your family included.

...the last bloke who managed to kill off the recovery he inherited from Labour...

!!! Where to start? If what was inherited in 2010 was anything other than an economic clusterfu<k of giant proportions then I'm a banana. Truly we are doomed. There must somewhere be a lefty who understands where this country will end up if we don't resolve our unsustainable welfare state.