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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday
First up was Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP and in the last hour or so, Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns after being caught sending explicit photographs of himself to women over the internet.
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Why is Cameron's rating down so much in the run up to the conference? He's barely doing better than Ed M, and not to a degree that means anyone should assume it will help him much. Apparently he's not much of an asset thesedays, according to this one poll at least.
I don't believe the Greens rating. Or rather, most people do not even think of them enough to be negative. Otherwise they'd have been picking up Labour and LD votes, not UKIP.
But don't worry Tories - Ed M being weird will reverse all the other reasons Labour are set to win in 2015, right?
He must be pretty confident to defect - and seems to have taken a councillor or 2 with him but my hunch is to bet against.
Anyone fancy a bet?
Tory MP Mark Reckless has said he is leaving his party to join UKIP, announcing his decision on the eve of the Conservatives' conference.
Opinion Polls show increase in Lab lead and show massive support for newly announced policies such as mansion tax.
Only on PB and in DH head does that translate into a disaster for Ed
Mike has the theory, that UKIP polled the constituency, and it shows the Reckless will hold it.
UKIP more favourable than Tories.
The whole anti-UKIP tactical voting premise collapses.
LAB fav: 30%
UKIP fav: 27%
CON fav: 25%
LAB unfav: 43%
UKIP unfav: 43%
CON unfav: 48%
He is on his way to destroying the party.
No betting market yet though.
(plus a bit of a risk isn't it, calling up a load of people and asking about such a loaded hypothetical)
Good timing helps bash The Tories after a crap week for Labour, Ed's non leadership and a big slide in Trinity Mirrors share price and future cash flows. Good day to bury bad news.
To be honest, Pong, the way things are running I can see UKIP winning a dozen or more seats at the GE.
Reckless and Carswell are safe as houses.
Can Sunday morning be any better, as the Sunday Papers front pages splash the doings of UKIP?
Also How will "Marr" deal with it?
And will "This Week" take the piss?
Cameron has reduced the Tory party membership by two thirds.
Cameron has split the right wing.
Cameron is a disaster as Tory leader.
The election campaign will start after Christmas, the more the public see of Miliband the more the Labour party ratings will drop. The LibDems are dead, defunct a Norwegian blue, not forgetting conservative disenfranchisement with the Tories.
If you didn't watch any of the UKIP conference then you won't appreciate the above.
The new Minister for Civil Society, who co-founded the campaign group Women2Win, initiated a private message conversation on a social networking site and as part of a series of exchanges sent a graphic picture exposing himself while wearing a pair of paisley pyjamas
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tory-minister-brooks-newmark-quits-4335398
Much as all this amuses I don't think Reckless is nailed on to hold his seat.
Only because Cameron lets them! Cameron is a terrible man manger. He has never felt it was his job. It was below him. Say what you like about Miliband but he has done incredibly well at keeping the party united.
You don't see Labour MPs defecting to the greens.
Amusing to see Farage refer to the EU for about 5 seconds in his speech the other day.
It's not all over yet
But the reason the greens aren't a viable threat is because Miliband has kept the left around him.
2) I know of several Tories, activists, MPs, members, who will not remain part of the party, if we form a pact with UKIP, in its current form.
Where are the good old Tories wearing women's lingerie suspenders during sex scandals?
* but who knows how many more Tories might jump ship to UKIP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winchester_by-election,_1997
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-29397223
Makes a change from stories of wayward staff at a national broadcaster.
Meanwhile an @OpiniumResearch poll has it Lab 34 (-3) Con 32 (+3) UKIP 17 (-1) LD 7 (nc) Greens 4 (nc)
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/27/labour-lead-conservatives-falls-two-points-miliband-conference-speech-deficit
I'm serious, Corporeal.
I've been mocked on here before for suggesting the prices on them winning one let alone five seats were way too high. Those who took my advice now have very nice looking UKIP portfolios.
The pity is there is no spread available. I'd be a buyer at 6.
Eventually there will reach a tipping point. You can't keep losing members.
What is interesting is that it was clearly a setup. He thought he was sexting with a hot young FEMALE and it was actually an undercover MALE reporter.
Have the Mirror been on a fishing exercise looking to catch pervy old male politicians (given it is the Mirror, they would only set up Tories), or was there some specific intell on this guy.
If it was a fishing exercise, you have to think more than one MP, would get in involved in this, if they thought they could bonk a hot young reporter.
How many Tory MPs defecting would end Cameron's leadership of the Tory party?
Its all just a bit stupid of Nomark.
2) For better part of two decades, a significant strand of the Tory party, usually on the socially conservative right wing of the party have preferred the purity of opposition to power.
Only if there is a chance of the government losing it's majority, but it is unlikely that there will be so many defectors.
“The government has more important questions to deal with than whether or not Scottish MPs vote on English laws” is a blatantly slanted question. And a wrong headed one.
If the govt had done nothing and the question was ''In the light of greater devolved powers for Scotland is the govt decision to do nothing about English devolution acceptable'' then the result would have been just the same if not worse.
Of course there are 'more important questions' - this does not invalidate all the others it is dealing with and it does not mean the govt is not properly prioritising the issues.
All this does is confirm me in the belief that polls are used disgracefully and the people who commission them have their own axe to grind.
2) No they won't
I think the reality is Ed hasn't done his chances any really good this past week (even the positive poll, Labour are hardly up / or his personal ratings), but he doesn't need to be. 35% strategy will have Labour over the line, thanks to fragmented right, Cameron being poor, Scotland and the electoral system being in Labour's favour.
I think we probably end up with around 35/35 or 34/36, but it will be enough to scrap Labour over the line.
Regardless, it is just so stupid. If you are an married MP, keep you bits in your trousers, don't send dodgy texts / emails, just don't. After phone hacking, NSA / Snowdon, you would think they would learn.
Look at the Survation marginal polls. Labour is nowhere near it's 2005 vote share (of 35%) in those constituencies.
What's more, Comres have the SNP 8 points in front in Scotland, though admittedly that's more optimistic for Ed than yesterday's 16 point lead in YG.
If Ed can't hold Scotland, he has no hope of getting 35%, or of forming a majority
I think the future that awaits him is the role of PM, with an impossibly weak minority mandate.
Mr Newark is the bad egg here.
I'm right wing but I'm not a bigot. The real issue is the parking of an underclass on benefits its the lack of preparation for work of our young. The issue of immigration is because of the success of our economy and the need to serve it and the unwillingness and unfitness of some Brits to take part. UKIP simply blame the hardworking Poles and smear everyone with a dark skin.
But not as much as flashing your dick in a selfie.
Come the day, most Conservatives and UKIP will collaborate with each other.
It's a tough one to price up. I'd guess the bookies would probably look at the Clacton odds as a guide - they'll be expecting most punters to bet on UKIP and set the price accordingly.
A random stab in the dark guess at the bookies opening offer would be something like;
1/3 UKIP
3/1 Con
8/1 Lab