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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    SeanT said:



    Should it be a YES, there must be - to coin a phrase - a day of reckoning with all those ENGLISH and other FUK pundits and politicians, who helped this happen. People like George Monbiot, on the Guardian, who have eagerly put the boot in to the Union, to encourage its demise, in the last few days.

    This article by him was particularly despicable:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland

    If YES wins I will be making my feelings known, quite personally, to Mr Monbiot.

    Are you going to punch his lights out in the middle of Primrose? :O

  • The cheek!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29203695

    "The former prime minister has already argued that the UK is on course for major constitutional change even in the event of a No vote. He wants a guarantee that any future constitutional change will be made with Scotland's involvement. Some will fear that without such a guarantee, calls for more powers for England could be debated without Scotland being consulted."

    Erm.. OK Mr Brown. So when have the English ever been consulted about Scottish constitutional reform, hmm.

    Absolutely unbelievable. This man ran our country for three years.

    The cheek!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29203695

    "The former prime minister has already argued that the UK is on course for major constitutional change even in the event of a No vote. He wants a guarantee that any future constitutional change will be made with Scotland's involvement. Some will fear that without such a guarantee, calls for more powers for England could be debated without Scotland being consulted."

    Erm.. OK Mr Brown. So when have the English ever been consulted about Scottish constitutional reform, hmm.

    Absolutely unbelievable. This man ran our country for three years.

    They haven't and they won't be. It's the price you'll have to pay.
    England, taking one for the union.

    Rule Britannia.

  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

    Was the fieldwork for this done today? Yesterday?
    Fieldwork for YG is I believe always for the 24 hours till the morning of the day it's reported.
    alex said:



    I genuinely don't think "the English" care that much, and attempts to make them care are ultimately just rabble rousing by politicians (however theoretically logical their arguments). The English just want to be governed and don't like to be bothered with it (beyond getting asked if they are OK with the Government once every 4-5 years). They don't like political turmoil (which is why they don't particularly appreciate what is going on in Scotland) and aren't that fussed by EV4EL if it won't work (which it won't very well). What they certainly, IMO, don't want is any "solution" which involves increasing numbers of politicians (be it English Parliament, regional devolution etc). The English also know that at the end of the day in any Westminster Parliamentary battle which is genuinely England vs Scotland/Wales, they always have the votes to win.

    Spot on. It's all a bit AV vs FPTP/regional governments/open vs closed lists. Most people just don't want to know.
    So its not about the Labour Party losing control over English Health, Education, Welfare, Justice and pretty much all domestic policy for most of the time (for example arguably 50 out of the last 68 years) because they will not be able to bring into play their plurality / majority of Scottish and Welsh MPs?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's fence sitting at the moment - looked like he was going to come out for YES this week, but then backed tracked over the EU. - no doubt he'll now wait till the Wednesday polls before deciding which way to jump. - perhaps it's just me, but I think he's just having a laugh and attempting to make every one as uncomfortable as possible - the old rascal...
    Yep, I'm sure he holds a grudge against us for giving him a hard time over his red tops, or whatever they're called.
    Well he must hold a grudge over the labour attacks over him. But would any intervention be counter productive to his opinion.
  • welshowl said:

    AggieD said:

    I cannot agree that we'll all come together after a Yes vote and it'll be all sweetness and light. I will always be a Scot who is proud to be British and I will never be reconciled to having my Country ripped apart. I only personally know 2 people who are voting Yes and I will never be the same with them again. I feel a strange sort of hurt inside, it's very strange My grown up children feel the same and they fear for the future of their children, my grandchildren. Nothing will ever be the same!

    Would you think about leaving?
    Yes I would, as would my children. They don't want to bring their children up in what Scotland is becoming , and almost certainly would become after a a Yes vote. All these 'victims' with a chip on their shoulder who talk about a fairer society. Scotland has more than punched above it's weight in UK politics butwhatever they are offered will never be enough.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    HYUFD said:

    Could Dave please shut up for a moment, 10,000 ordinary people came to Trafalgar Square tonight, yet apart from a brief clip on BBC 1 news it has been all Cameron, Dave you got the question wrong in this referendum and failed to allow Devomax, could you allow the people of the rest of the UK to have their say for an evening, they might actually be able to reach out to the average floating Scot rather better than you can!

    Hmm, I noticed earlier that the FT says 'a few thousand' (in a piece whose downbeat and even critical tone took me aback rather) and the BBC says 5K (organisers' figure).

    (To put it into another context, that's the same order of magnitude, though larger, than the demos at BBC Scotland, IIRC. The last but one was a few thousand, I forget the exact figure, which was carefully counted by the organisers, and the last one was around 2K acc to STV.)

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/4a5fcfa2-3ce4-11e4-9733-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3DQCd0UdA

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29209403


  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014


    However, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scots have and always have been treated like second-class citizens. It's not just class issues it's identity too. For our pre-Union history our population was steady at one-sixth that of Englands. It's now around one-tenth. Our structural economic disadvantages, lack of central industrial policy, cultural suppression through the syllabus in schools and universities and the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    The reasons go on and on. This was never a Union. It was a political fix from the start and remains so. We would remain a colonised civilisation by voting No always with the wind against us. However, many English commentators just can't bring themselves to see the world as we see it - they just assume, because we are innately inferior, that we can't possibly understand what it is that we are doing and that we are driven by primitive, semi-animalistic motives. And there is the rub. We got you but you NEVER got us and that means there is and never was a Union.

    It is those, colonised in their own minds, who intend to vote No who will be dividing Scot against Scot. This Union cannot remain together whereas in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.

    Let me put the caps lock on so you can hear me. THIS IS IN YOUR HEAD. Are we in the 1930s? Who is treating you like 'scum' because you don't speak RP ffs? Who's doing this class disdain to you -P.G Wodehouse? Nancy Mitford? Earl Hague? David (clue's in the name) Cameron? Tony (clue's in the name) Blair? Miss Marple?

    Who has TIME to wake up and muse to themselves that Scottish people are 'innately inferior'? Just because you go on to these websites and you're all solemnly musing these things to each other in nice sounding prose with pretty pictures doen't mean it's not BOLLOCKS.

    The people who are voting 'no' are those who are NOT mentally colonised. They are those who are self confident, secure and happy to be part of a fantastic country, and just don't have this huge inferiority complex resentment baggage that you're clearly carrying, and you've been encouraged to add to by the company you keep. Read your own writing -is this really the pish that your argument is founded upon? You're about the rip the country down the middle, and push your fellow scots into poverty, on the basis of little more than imagined slight. Bottom line.

    A masterful piece of understatement to some really delusional thinking.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,387
    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Thank you Andy, very useful. You have produced many useful spreadsheets and although I try to keep track, I inevitably lose the links. Do you have some kind of website or blog or twitter feed in which links to your spreadsheets are collated? Statgeek on ukpollingreport does something similar with graphs and he has a website
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    isam said:

    Tomorrows BESUS 84 mins early

    16.9.14 LAB 331 (332) CON 262(261) LD 33(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 232 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    What price ukip get at least one seat?

    I'll bet 1/2 they get one or more
    Better odds on Betfair 5/7 on 1-5 seats.

    In fact I could get 5.4/1 on no seats quite tempting.

    I think Great Yarmouth is most likely for UKIP but just have as Tory hold.
  • glw said:

    Speedy said:

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's playing the conserned conservative:
    "Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 14
    SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels."

    I think he did have a call from his banker.
    Does Murdoch have any redeeming qualities? He appears to be a wholly malignant individual with no concerns other than what will promote his own interests, which is primarily enriching himself at the expense of others and wider society.
    I like him. Don't read his cruddy publications, but I do like him.
  • DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    AllyM said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Cracking spreadsheet.
    Thanks. Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be completely wrong, lol.
    Have No not lost about 50K votes since the last one? That was careless.

    I am off all day Thursday but on Friday I am taking my wife and daughter to Durham to apply for asylum attend an open day.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off; not sure whether it would be better to Blether Together or travel up again to help out on the ground. What do you think?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    glw said:

    Speedy said:

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's playing the conserned conservative:
    "Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 14
    SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels."

    I think he did have a call from his banker.
    Does Murdoch have any redeeming qualities? He appears to be a wholly malignant individual with no concerns other than what will promote his own interests, which is primarily enriching himself at the expense of others and wider society.
    Rupert Murdoch -like most people- is principally concerned with himself. Part of this concern is about making people think he matters: he must always go with the crowd, so he can cow politicians and say "look! my papers and TV stations supported x, and therefore x."

    The other part of his concern is for his financial well being.The biggest thing on his 'plate' right now is the proposed merger between BSkyB, Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia. The goal is be the dominant pay TV provider in Europe, and to bid on pan-European rights. National TV organisations will not be able to outbid a pan-European pay-TV company with 10s of millions of subscribers.

    But how to get approval for this? Well, he must threaten and bluster and suggest he's going to support AfD and UKIP and Five Stars: but he knows that without the EU, he cannot create his pay-TV juggernaut.

    So, he will hummm and haaaahhh... and suggest... and then back the Tories in Britain (unless it looks Ed will win)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Tomorrows BESUS 84 mins early

    16.9.14 LAB 331 (332) CON 262(261) LD 33(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 232 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    What price ukip get at least one seat?

    I'll bet 1/2 they get one or more
    Better odds on Betfair 5/7 on 1-5 seats.

    In fact I could get 5.4/1 on no seats quite tempting.

    I think Great Yarmouth is most likely for UKIP but just have as Tory hold.
    What price clacton?
  • AggieD said:

    All these 'victims'

    Kerrunchsplingobrink.

    The sound of an irony meter breaking.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Tomorrows BESUS 84 mins early

    16.9.14 LAB 331 (332) CON 262(261) LD 33(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 232 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    What price ukip get at least one seat?

    I'll bet 1/2 they get one or more
    Better odds on Betfair 5/7 on 1-5 seats.

    In fact I could get 5.4/1 on no seats quite tempting.

    I think Great Yarmouth is most likely for UKIP but just have as Tory hold.
    What price clacton?
    Clacrton has to be at least 5-1 on for the general.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I have no idea what the Scottish poll result will be, but the postal votes will be crucial.
    Frankly, I am so sick of hearing about it I just want it to be over. Of course it will be a disaster for Scotland and the Scottish people if they vote yes, but Salmond doesn't give a monkeys about that, that's for certain.
    The most amusing thing I haver heard during the debate was a Welshman on the Jeremy Vine show who said Ed Miliband was as about as useful as a boil on the scrotum. How we all chuckled.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @NorthBriton
    It's been pretty civilized down here. Must be all that highland spirit you are drinking up there

    The problem is the atmosphere it has created in places of work etc. The Yes campaign has been very assertive, not to say overbearing - which I think may prove to be its Achilles Heel.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: 'The civility of the campaign is unbelievable... that's what distinguishes us as a nation' Brian Cox tells #newsnight #indyref

    Guess he wasn't outside the BBC the other day then

    Which nation is he talking about. I presume the Scots. If so this is the same nation that sees such worrying religious splits? If he is talking about the UK then well whats the point of that?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    This could prove tricky.

    "NHS faces mounting financial crisis as deficit heads towards £1bn"
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/15/nhs-financial-crisis-deficit-1bn-hospitals
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Tomorrows BESUS 84 mins early

    16.9.14 LAB 331 (332) CON 262(261) LD 33(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 232 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    What price ukip get at least one seat?

    I'll bet 1/2 they get one or more
    Better odds on Betfair 5/7 on 1-5 seats.

    In fact I could get 5.4/1 on no seats quite tempting.

    I think Great Yarmouth is most likely for UKIP but just have as Tory hold.
    What price clacton?
    Clacrton has to be at least 5-1 on for the general.
    Big john seems to think its odds against
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    AllyM said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Cracking spreadsheet.
    Thanks. Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be completely wrong, lol.
    Have No not lost about 50K votes since the last one? That was careless.

    I am off all day Thursday but on Friday I am taking my wife and daughter to Durham to apply for asylum attend an open day.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off; not sure whether it would be better to Blether Together or travel up again to help out on the ground. What do you think?
    Not sure. I am attending a meeting tomorrow night when we will all get our marching orders for the day. We want a good attendance at polling stations, GOTV and transport for those that need it. Phone banks chasing up those who had assured us they would vote by a certain time will be an important part of that and can presumably be done from anywhere with modern technology.

    I will raise it tomorrow and ask what those south of the border who want to help can most usefully do. I will post any response I get tomorrow night. The meeting is at 7.30 so probably after 9.00pm.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Smarmeron said:

    This could prove tricky.

    "NHS faces mounting financial crisis as deficit heads towards £1bn"
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/15/nhs-financial-crisis-deficit-1bn-hospitals

    Tory PBers didnt think this was an issue when I said it would be a couple of months ago.

    I am still certain it will be massive we will see
  • Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Someone has been reading PB -I said they should sign this pledge thing a week ago! Only I said sign it live, not on the front of the Daily Record with a faux 'treasure map' effect provided by MS Publisher.

    And also I said ask the SNP to sign it, and have fun with their refusal. Which they could have done on this front page -sillouette of Alex Salmond (showing Hitchcock-esque double chins) with a big question mark. 'Salmond refuses to sign for extra powers should 'yes' lose' etc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    BTW I am probably on the reporting Scotland part of Newsnight about now wandering around Dundee in a red waterproof looking keen and miserable at the same time if that is possible. My daughter is the idiot without the coat.
  • Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: 'The civility of the campaign is unbelievable... that's what distinguishes us as a nation' Brian Cox tells #newsnight #indyref

    Guess he wasn't outside the BBC the other day then

    Which nation is he talking about. I presume the Scots. If so this is the same nation that sees such worrying religious splits? If he is talking about the UK then well whats the point of that?
    I suppose everything does seem very civil when you're fast asleep.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    rcs1000 said:

    glw said:

    Speedy said:

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's playing the conserned conservative:
    "Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 14
    SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels."

    I think he did have a call from his banker.
    Does Murdoch have any redeeming qualities? He appears to be a wholly malignant individual with no concerns other than what will promote his own interests, which is primarily enriching himself at the expense of others and wider society.
    Rupert Murdoch -like most people- is principally concerned with himself. Part of this concern is about making people think he matters: he must always go with the crowd, so he can cow politicians and say "look! my papers and TV stations supported x, and therefore x."

    The other part of his concern is for his financial well being.The biggest thing on his 'plate' right now is the proposed merger between BSkyB, Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia. The goal is be the dominant pay TV provider in Europe, and to bid on pan-European rights. National TV organisations will not be able to outbid a pan-European pay-TV company with 10s of millions of subscribers.

    But how to get approval for this? Well, he must threaten and bluster and suggest he's going to support AfD and UKIP and Five Stars: but he knows that without the EU, he cannot create his pay-TV juggernaut.

    So, he will hummm and haaaahhh... and suggest... and then back the Tories in Britain (unless it looks Ed will win)
    The media sector is oligarchic enough without him getting this one too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    This is a charming character (not):

    https://twitter.com/markbev73
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Someone has been reading PB -I said they should sign this pledge thing a week ago! Only I said sign it live, not on the front of the Daily Record with a faux 'treasure map' effect provided by MS Publisher.

    And also I said ask the SNP to sign it, and have fun with their refusal. Which they could have done on this front page -sillouette of Alex Salmond (showing Hitchcock-esque double chins) with a big question mark. 'Salmond refuses to sign for extra powers should 'yes' lose' etc.
    As all we have for sure is a timetable for a draft bill, and as none of this is (I am assured) binding on future administrations in which they may not in any case serve (Mr Farage as Deputy PM, for instance?), it's a bit off to expect the SNP to sign it.

    I see Twitter is showing pics of Mr Clegg with his student fees pledge. A bit unkind, but it is inevitable.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Smarmeron said:

    This could prove tricky.

    "NHS faces mounting financial crisis as deficit heads towards £1bn"
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/15/nhs-financial-crisis-deficit-1bn-hospitals

    Tory PBers didnt think this was an issue when I said it would be a couple of months ago.

    I am still certain it will be massive we will see
    Money will be found in the Autumn statement. George will not want the NHS to have a bad winter in election year.
  • Now does this sound familiar?

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 55m

    @Craigthepatriot @UncleHubie @realDonaldTrump Typical septic fanny

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 59m
    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft Do I arse hole Darren I just got a first in English lit you prick now fuck off you c*nt

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 54m

    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft says the fanny with the goat lol
  • Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    AndyJS said:

    AllyM said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Cracking spreadsheet.
    Thanks. Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be completely wrong, lol.
    Have No not lost about 50K votes since the last one? That was careless.

    I am off all day Thursday but on Friday I am taking my wife and daughter to Durham to apply for asylum attend an open day.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off; not sure whether it would be better to Blether Together or travel up again to help out on the ground. What do you think?
    Not sure. I am attending a meeting tomorrow night when we will all get our marching orders for the day. We want a good attendance at polling stations, GOTV and transport for those that need it. Phone banks chasing up those who had assured us they would vote by a certain time will be an important part of that and can presumably be done from anywhere with modern technology.

    I will raise it tomorrow and ask what those south of the border who want to help can most usefully do. I will post any response I get tomorrow night. The meeting is at 7.30 so probably after 9.00pm.
    Thanks. I know what you mean about this being all consuming; it's hard to think about anything else.

    I only wish more people south of the border felt the same way, and would do something about it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lennon said:

    AllyM said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Cracking spreadsheet.
    Quite agree - thanks so much for this Andy.
    Thanks Lennon.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Laying down a marker there. Spain might be the only country more relieved by a NO than the UK.
  • Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.
    I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?

    :)
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Now does this sound familiar?

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 55m

    @Craigthepatriot @UncleHubie @realDonaldTrump Typical septic fanny

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 59m
    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft Do I arse hole Darren I just got a first in English lit you prick now fuck off you c*nt

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 54m

    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft says the fanny with the goat lol

    You think Malc might be from Dunfermline as well?
  • Spanish foreign minister blows apart automatic Scottish EU membership claim. Whoever would have thought it?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
  • Spanish foreign minister blows apart automatic Scottish EU membership claim. Whoever would have thought it?

    Well you've been saying that for years.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Someone has been reading PB -I said they should sign this pledge thing a week ago! Only I said sign it live, not on the front of the Daily Record with a faux 'treasure map' effect provided by MS Publisher.

    And also I said ask the SNP to sign it, and have fun with their refusal. Which they could have done on this front page -sillouette of Alex Salmond (showing Hitchcock-esque double chins) with a big question mark. 'Salmond refuses to sign for extra powers should 'yes' lose' etc.
    As all we have for sure is a timetable for a draft bill, and as none of this is (I am assured) binding on future administrations in which they may not in any case serve (Mr Farage as Deputy PM, for instance?), it's a bit off to expect the SNP to sign it.

    I see Twitter is showing pics of Mr Clegg with his student fees pledge. A bit unkind, but it is inevitable.

    It would be extremely off to ask him to sign it -which is why they should have done it. Sign it and admit you might lose and devomax is worthwhile, don't sign it and be accused of playing politics and not really caring. It's fairly low down political tactics of the sort that Salmond relishes, and under the circumstances wholly justified.
  • Now does this sound familiar?

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 55m

    @Craigthepatriot @UncleHubie @realDonaldTrump Typical septic fanny

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 59m
    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft Do I arse hole Darren I just got a first in English lit you prick now fuck off you c*nt

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 54m

    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft says the fanny with the goat lol

    You think Malc might be from Dunfermline as well?
    Nah, the lack of mention of turnips...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @xtophercook: Importance of Spain's intervention is that they would not allow article 48 to be used - the Scottish govt's preferred option. #newsnight
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @benrileysmith: Would urge anyone concerned with #indyref business intimidation to read Telegraph tomorrow. Investigations team draws back the curtain.
  • Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.

    Some kind of lie will be concocted.

    It's been clear for years what the true situation is. As I've pointed out on here time and again the Spanish have been completely consistent on this. And they have a veto.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:


    The greens got one and changed ferk all.

    It was one more vote for an EU referendum, Harry.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Taking the latest polls and plugging them into a seat calculator I found online gives the following results:

    UKIP - 0
    Everyone Else - 650
  • But doesn't Alex Salmond have legal advice proving the Spanish Minister is talking pish?
  • Neil said:

    Taking the latest polls and plugging them into a seat calculator I found online gives the following results:

    UKIP - 0
    Everyone Else - 650

    Have you seen the Greens! They've been surging ever since some wise fellow backed them to outpoll the Lib Dems.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    The greens got one and changed ferk all.

    It was one more vote for an EU referendum, Harry.
    Which got voted down by Labour and he LDs in the lords....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Neil said:

    Taking the latest polls and plugging them into a seat calculator I found online gives the following results:

    UKIP - 0
    Everyone Else - 650

    I'll have £25 at evens ukip win Clacton next May thank you will email to confirm details
  • I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?

    :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
  • Now does this sound familiar?

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 55m

    @Craigthepatriot @UncleHubie @realDonaldTrump Typical septic fanny

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 59m
    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft Do I arse hole Darren I just got a first in English lit you prick now fuck off you c*nt

    Mark Beveridge @markbev73 · 54m

    @dpw1301 @MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft says the fanny with the goat lol

    You think Malc might be from Dunfermline as well?
    Nah, the lack of mention of turnips...
    Also he usually capitalises his LOLs. Like so. He does when he's LOLing at my posts anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    Not the same thing at all. The Greens focused all their energies into a few key target seats, and didn't even stand in an awful lot of areas, and despite occasional upticks have not really captured the public imagination more widely. UKIP got around 1 million votes but were too widely dispersed, and have kept on surprising how much further they have crept up in the polling, and as a result have had a genuine impact on the other parties and policies they have announced despite having no MPs, because their percentage level became significant. I had thought they would still miss out on an MP, but that if they could maintain their momentum they would get some in 2020, as eventually if your percentage gets high enough chances are it will cluster enough in one seat at some point.

    Now that is looking pretty likely in a couple of areas, and unlike the Greens it is significant because, for now anyway, UKIP have millions of professed supporters and the main parties scrambling to defend their bases from the threat. The Greens have had an entirely different strategy.

    I won't be voting UKIP, but well done them for their rise so far, it'll be interesting to see if it can be sustained, as unlike the Greens, they have a much better platform to change things.

  • glw said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Laying down a marker there. Spain might be the only country more relieved by a NO than the UK.

    Governments generally dislike international upheaval and disruption. When it happens at a time of international political, economic and financial uncertainty they like it even less. My guess is that most EU countries are very keen for No to win. And if the Yrs vote triggers a market crisis Scotland will find it has very few true friends.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
    Ukip will get an insignificant amount of seats and be in opposition forever.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?

    :)

    A new Sunil-meme?

    I'd agree that the Spanish veto means feck all when it comes to Gibraltar
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited September 2014

    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.
    Tony Abbott is a right tool. He condones torture and is very friendly with the war criminals who run Sri Lanka.

    Salmond may not be right much but with regards Abbott he is spot on...
  • George Monbiot is a posh English southerner who rebelled against his parents because he thought it was cool. Does he really think that we care one iota what he thinks? In fact does he even know where Scotland is? I am so glad that the Yes campaign have people like him supporting them.

    I am growing calmer every day. The polls are pretty good on some levels. I have not met a woman over 50 who plans to vote Yes. Middle aged, male and badly dressed is however a good indicator for a possible Yes. The No campaign sounded quietly confident on the radio today and they are taking the fight to the Yes heartlands.

    Few important events left now. Will be interesting to see how many Rangers fans turn up tomorrow night at Ibrox.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?

    :)

    Just because we agree with them on one thing, does not mean we agree with them on all things!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014

    Neil said:

    Taking the latest polls and plugging them into a seat calculator I found online gives the following results:

    UKIP - 0
    Everyone Else - 650

    Have you seen the Greens! They've been surging ever since some wise fellow backed them to outpoll the Lib Dems.
    In all seriousness, how are firms coming up with these figures for the greens when they aren't standing in half the seats? Can't be right can it??

    If people want to bet I'll have any amount at evens they poll less than 3%
  • It should be remembered George Monbiot was one of those that jumped on the Lord McAlpine bandwagon.

    That tells you all you need to know about his judgement.

    http://www.monbiot.com/2012/11/10/lord-mcalpine-an-abject-apology/
  • Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    A business opportunity for Berwick-based manufacturers of chain link fencing.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    'BlackDouglas' makes me angry and he should realise that his ilk do not have a monopoly on self rightious indignation.

    He effectively attacks me and everyone like me when he implies we are treating Scots like some kind of slaves. It's downright ignorant and stupid. I take great affront. I like and love Scotland but if he keeps on like that I will never go near the place again. What a tragedy - Scotland is part of MY country.
    Until devolution Scotland had more MPs. If the Stuarts had been more sane (in a rational sense) and less interested in religious hegemony then we would still have a Stuart Monarchy (others can argue if that would be good or bad thats not the point) - the point is there is no colonisation of Scotland - Jeeezus H Kerist, its currently building 2 giant carriers foir the Royal Navy - it has and I hope will continue to play a full and active part in OUR country!!

    It is amazing sad and appalling in equal measure that 'BD' can give out such drivel. I'm coming to the view the Nats are only interested in their view of 'independence' - they see it as a way to impose their political prejudice in their little neck of the woods.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
    Ukip will get an insignificant amount of seats and be in opposition forever.
    So what? Who said any different?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    George Monbiot has a soulmate in Vivienne Westwood:

    ""I hate England. I like Scotland because somehow I think they are better than we are. They are more democratic," she told reporters."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11097056/Vivienne-Westwood-reveals-support-for-a-Yes-vote-in-Scottish-independence-referendum-at-London-Fashion-Week.html
  • RobD said:

    I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?

    :)

    Just because we agree with them on one thing, does not mean we agree with them on all things!
    I'm sure Spain has legal advice proving the Rock is occupied territory - doesn't mean they're right :)
  • A thought provoking article on the impact of Scottish Independence on the railways

    http://blog.railnews.co.uk/?p=234
  • George Monbiot is a posh English southerner who rebelled against his parents because he thought it was cool. Does he really think that we care one iota what he thinks? In fact does he even know where Scotland is? I am so glad that the Yes campaign have people like him supporting them.

    I am growing calmer every day. The polls are pretty good on some levels. I have not met a woman over 50 who plans to vote Yes. Middle aged, male and badly dressed is however a good indicator for a possible Yes. The No campaign sounded quietly confident on the radio today and they are taking the fight to the Yes heartlands.

    Few important events left now. Will be interesting to see how many Rangers fans turn up tomorrow night at Ibrox.

    How d'ye think the 8,000 Govan shipyard workers are voting?
  • HYUFD said:

    Could Dave please shut up for a moment, 10,000 ordinary people came to Trafalgar Square tonight, yet apart from a brief clip on BBC 1 news it has been all Cameron. Dave you got the question wrong in this referendum and failed to allow Devomax, could you allow the people of the rest of the UK to have their say for an evening, they might actually be able to reach out to the average floating Scot rather better than you can!

    The angriest person at my chess club (the indy debate gets everywhere) last week was a committed "no" voter laying into Cameron for not allowing Scots living in England a vote in the referendum.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
    Ukip will get an insignificant amount of seats and be in opposition forever.
    So what? Who said any different?
    Which is why seat predictors saying 0, 1 or 2 is frankly small beer.
  • RobD said:

    I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?

    :)

    Just because we agree with them on one thing, does not mean we agree with them on all things!
    I'm sure Spain has legal advice proving the Rock is occupied territory - doesn't mean they're right :)
    Ahem, the Treaty of Utrecht.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
    Ukip will get an insignificant amount of seats and be in opposition forever.
    So what? Who said any different?
    Well some people are raising the possibility of UKIP being in government via a Tory-UKIP Coalition at some point I suppose, though I don't think they mean in 2015.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.
    Tony Abbott is a right tool. He condones torture and is very friendly with the war criminals who run Sri Lanka.

    Salmond may not be right much but with regards Abbott he is spot on...
    War criminals do not run Sri Lanka - but they did spend years fighting mad murderous terrorists. People are not dying because those terrorists have been defeated despite them using women and children as human shields.
  • RobD said:

    I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?

    :)

    Just because we agree with them on one thing, does not mean we agree with them on all things!
    I'm sure Spain has legal advice proving the Rock is occupied territory - doesn't mean they're right :)
    Ahem, the Treaty of Utrecht.
    Really, TSE, that's almost as old news as the Act of Union :)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    George Monbiot is a posh English southerner who rebelled against his parents because he thought it was cool. Does he really think that we care one iota what he thinks? In fact does he even know where Scotland is? I am so glad that the Yes campaign have people like him supporting them.

    I am growing calmer every day. The polls are pretty good on some levels. I have not met a woman over 50 who plans to vote Yes. Middle aged, male and badly dressed is however a good indicator for a possible Yes. The No campaign sounded quietly confident on the radio today and they are taking the fight to the Yes heartlands.

    Few important events left now. Will be interesting to see how many Rangers fans turn up tomorrow night at Ibrox.

    Attendances at Ibrox are unrelated to the Indy ref - the spiv owners have created a wave of fan dissatisfaction.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited September 2014

    'BlackDouglas' makes me angry and he should realise that his ilk do not have a monopoly on self rightious indignation.

    He effectively attacks me and everyone like me when he implies we are treating Scots like some kind of slaves. It's downright ignorant and stupid. I take great affront. I like and love Scotland but if he keeps on like that I will never go near the place again. What a tragedy - Scotland is part of MY country.
    Until devolution Scotland had more MPs. If the Stuarts had been more sane (in a rational sense) and less interested in religious hegemony then we would still have a Stuart Monarchy (others can argue if that would be good or bad thats not the point) - the point is there is no colonisation of Scotland - Jeeezus H Kerist, its currently building 2 giant carriers foir the Royal Navy - it has and I hope will continue to play a full and active part in OUR country!!

    It is amazing sad and appalling in equal measure that 'BD' can give out such drivel. I'm coming to the view the Nats are only interested in their view of 'independence' - they see it as a way to impose their political prejudice in their little neck of the woods.

    He's chosen as his name that of the son of the first noble to support WILLIAM WALLACE!!! He was a close ally of Robert Bruce and, on his death and instruction, took Bruce's heart with him on a crusade to Spain.

    Black Douglas wants FREEDOM!!!!


    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Douglas,_Lord_of_Douglas
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    isam said:

    Neil said:

    Taking the latest polls and plugging them into a seat calculator I found online gives the following results:

    UKIP - 0
    Everyone Else - 650

    I'll have £25 at evens ukip win Clacton next May thank you will email to confirm details
    Thats a big assumption - that Carswell will not be an independent by then. Do you really see Carswell as a kipper?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    George Monbiot is a posh English southerner who rebelled against his parents because he thought it was cool. Does he really think that we care one iota what he thinks? In fact does he even know where Scotland is? I am so glad that the Yes campaign have people like him supporting them.

    I am growing calmer every day. The polls are pretty good on some levels. I have not met a woman over 50 who plans to vote Yes. Middle aged, male and badly dressed is however a good indicator for a possible Yes. The No campaign sounded quietly confident on the radio today and they are taking the fight to the Yes heartlands.

    Few important events left now. Will be interesting to see how many Rangers fans turn up tomorrow night at Ibrox.

    How d'ye think the 8,000 Govan shipyard workers are voting?
    No if they value their jobs...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954

    Governments generally dislike international upheaval and disruption. When it happens at a time of international political, economic and financial uncertainty they like it even less. My guess is that most EU countries are very keen for No to win. And if the Yrs vote triggers a market crisis Scotland will find it has very few true friends.

    Well for once I'll definitely be siding with our EU friends. The referendum campaign has put me right off any nationalist politics, and made me more sympathetic towards those who favour institutions like the UK, EU, etc.
  • murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.
    Tony Abbott is a right tool. He condones torture and is very friendly with the war criminals who run Sri Lanka.

    Salmond may not be right much but with regards Abbott he is spot on...
    Abbott is blunt about most things. Typical Aussie. Breath of fresh air.
    He has also now set up shop in a remote indigenous community for the next week; not something you would expect (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29201754).
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    Taking the latest polls and plugging them into a seat calculator I found online gives the following results:

    UKIP - 0
    Everyone Else - 650

    I'll have £25 at evens ukip win Clacton next May thank you will email to confirm details
    Thats a big assumption - that Carswell will not be an independent by then. Do you really see Carswell as a kipper?
    I think so, yes. Want to bet?

  • So we're gunning for a country which has claimed UK territory for a touch over 300 years when it comes to them not supporting secession of another part of our territory that has been British for a touch over 300 years?

    "Unspoofable" as a former Scottish member of this parish might say :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
    Ukip will get an insignificant amount of seats and be in opposition forever.
    So what? Who said any different?
    Which is why seat predictors saying 0, 1 or 2 is frankly small beer.
    Have never said any different, what's your problem?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Well done Newsnight for having a full report on today's Trafalgar Square Referendum
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
    Ukip will get an insignificant amount of seats and be in opposition forever.
    So what? Who said any different?
    Which is why seat predictors saying 0, 1 or 2 is frankly small beer.
    Have never said any different, what's your problem?
    You were making it out to be a big deal - unless you are from Clacton or Michael Crick - it ain't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Well done Newsnight for having a full report on today's Trafalgar Square Referendum
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've tweeted Lord Ashcroft to ask whether he has any plans for a Heywood & Middleton constituency poll. I think the answer is probably no.
  • HYUFD said:

    Well done Newsnight for having a full report on today's Trafalgar Square Referendum

    Far, far more people demonstrated against the Iraq War a decade ago, yours truly included!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    I think a PB rule should be introduced whereby anyone who posts a GE seat projection with ukip on zero has to lay a £25 bet at evens on ukip winning clacton next May, else their projections be considered trolling nonsense

    Meh not every one is obsessed wih tiny fringe parties getting their first MP.

    The greens got one and changed ferk all.
    I just dislike glaring rickets... If people say zero ukip seats then they should be glad to back the field in one seat at EVS... But if they don't mean it why type it? I'm not saying it will change anything
    Ukip will get an insignificant amount of seats and be in opposition forever.
    So what? Who said any different?
    Which is why seat predictors saying 0, 1 or 2 is frankly small beer.
    Have never said any different, what's your problem?
    You were making it out to be a big deal - unless you are from Clacton or Michael Crick - it ain't.
    No I wasn't. I just said if people are predicting zero, when ukip will be about 1/6 to win clacton, they should back it up or bore off

    You a fan if the bejesus,, eicipm, compouter etc seat predictions then? They're just noise
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    NOA Indeed, if it is a No, it will be thanks to the likes of DavidL of this parish, ordinary decent Scots, Jim Murphy and Dan Snow and Rory Stewart, Cameron gave Salmond the referendum question he wanted, allowed no devomax option and did not even allow expat Scots a vote
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    So we're gunning for a country which has claimed UK territory for a touch over 300 years when it comes to them not supporting secession of another part of our territory that has been British for a touch over 300 years?

    "Unspoofable" as a former Scottish member of this parish might say :)

    As I said Sunil, their EU veto means nothing wrt Gib. Their veto means everything wrt iScotland's accession to the EU.

    I've a feeling that these cold, hard facts won't stop another relentless Sunil-meme.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,890

    Smarmeron said:

    This could prove tricky.

    "NHS faces mounting financial crisis as deficit heads towards £1bn"
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/15/nhs-financial-crisis-deficit-1bn-hospitals

    Tory PBers didnt think this was an issue when I said it would be a couple of months ago.

    I am still certain it will be massive we will see
    It' the Guardian. There's an NHS Financial every day which has a "D" in it.

    There was going to be a massive crisis last year. It didn't happen then either.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564



    He's chosen as his name that of the son of the first noble to support WILLIAM WALLACE!!! He was a close ally of Robert Bruce and, on his death and instruction, took Bruce's heart with him on a crusade to Spain.

    Black Douglas wants FREEDOM!!!!

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Douglas,_Lord_of_Douglas

    I'm supposedly descended from Black Douglas (like, presumably, about 5 million other people) through the Scottish branch of the family. We've been Unionist for a few hundred years, though - blood running thin, no doubt.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    AndyJS Regardless of the result I suggest we all club together and buy Vivienne Westwood and George Monbiot a 1 way ticket to N Korea, I am sure they will at home in Kim Jong Un's socialist paradise!
  • So we're gunning for a country which has claimed UK territory for a touch over 300 years when it comes to them not supporting secession of another part of our territory that has been British for a touch over 300 years?

    "Unspoofable" as a former Scottish member of this parish might say :)

    As I said Sunil, their EU veto means nothing wrt Gib. Their veto means everything wrt iScotland's accession to the EU.

    I've a feeling that these cold, hard facts won't stop another relentless Sunil-meme.
    I think your obsession with me looks like the stirrings of a JonnyJimmy-meme, correct?

    :)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014

    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro

    @BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    @BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight

    Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.
    He'll claim that the Spaniard doesn't know what he's talking about, and is clearly a lying Tory stooge. And then waffle on about BBC bias for 10 minutes.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    So we're gunning for a country which has claimed UK territory for a touch over 300 years when it comes to them not supporting secession of another part of our territory that has been British for a touch over 300 years?

    "Unspoofable" as a former Scottish member of this parish might say :)

    As I said Sunil, their EU veto means nothing wrt Gib. Their veto means everything wrt iScotland's accession to the EU.

    I've a feeling that these cold, hard facts won't stop another relentless Sunil-meme.
    I think your obsession with me looks like the stirrings of a JonnyJimmy-meme, correct?

    :)
    Or, maybe, I'm trying to stop you from taking the Spain/Gibraltar thing as painfully far as you've taken the football/rugby thing. Just for your own good.

    :)
This discussion has been closed.