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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

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  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260

    AllyM said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    Agreed.
    I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved
    Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.
    As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.
    Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?
    I've taken Friday off for that reason.

    Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off.
    Lucky! I couldn't swing it, too much to do sadly.

    3 day weekend though should give me to time to celebrate or, drown my sorrows.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Tonights YG LAB 346 CON 255 LD 21

    Ed is Crap is PM

    Sadly likely to be disastrously so. The only upside will be watching events kick the carp out of him.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564

    The way the polls are bouncing around I think we need to start questioning whether the methodologies used are adequate in dealing with four or perhaps five party politics. I'm starting to think its not just the Scottish referendum polling that will be compared to 1992.

    Its less a case now of choosing the poll which suits your preferences as disregarding polling as a whole because increasingly there is just no consistency in what they are telling you.

    Don't really agree - they seem perfectly consistent with a Labour lead around 3, varying with the outliers either way that you'd expect. Sometimes someone makes a little surge, then falls back. It's very 1916, and that's the impression on the doorstep too. I've rarely known so few undecideds.
    DavidL said:



    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?

    lol ! Despite malcolmg's best efforts (which read increasingly tongue in cheek), I think PBers have handled the whole referendum with passion, wit and aplomb.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    FPT volcanopete says --
    ''Ed Milibands's message is more nuanced,devolution is for all of us in the UK.''

    But all the UK needs to discuss that. It should not be farmed out ad hoc on the hoof. And why should a desire for scottish independence - an ill thought out desire - end up with our entire constitution been thrown up in the air when clearly there are better things to do.

    And why should England and not also Scotland be broken up? Thats assuming that we do not have one enormous English Parliament which would really disjoint everything.
    The best bet is either EVEL or simply half the number of Scottish MPs to limit their unfair influence.

    If they have the same internal government powers as the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey, under Devo Max, why should they have ANY MPs?
    Quite simply, because of the areas which are not covered by those powers. Defence, foreign affairs, overall UK fiscal policy, etc. Areas where 8.4% of the population would no doubt want to have a say, and which might make some difference to the overall balance.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How good was Cameron's speech today?

    If he could have that effective 98% of the time instead of only 2% of the time, he'd be one of the finest PM's ever.

    Not necessarily, as there is more to being a leader than giving a good speech as some have discovered. Don't get me wrong though, I thought he was really good.
    Yes I'd go along with that.
  • The way the polls are bouncing around I think we need to start questioning whether the methodologies used are adequate in dealing with four or perhaps five party politics. I'm starting to think its not just the Scottish referendum polling that will be compared to 1992.

    Its less a case now of choosing the poll which suits your preferences as disregarding polling as a whole because increasingly there is just no consistency in what they are telling you.

    Because we have way more polls than we used to we will have way more outliers and we will have way more examples of statistical noise with no obvious driver for changes in opinion to pretend caused the random change in measured party support.

    Even if you had a perfect opinion poll you would expect a large degree of variation from poll to poll - even when the underlying public support is static - which it might not be.
    None of which helps you decipher whats actually going on. Whether it should be expected or not there comes a point where just like a radio station if the background noise is loud enough and persistent enough you stop listening to it.

    If the levels of statistical noise are too great and too persistent and totally random then the methodology is not up to the job and the polling becomes irrelevant !
    Not at all. Disregard the extremes on any side and look at the 80% or so in the middle. The current truth is likely there.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The Lib Dem decline continues. How low do they have to go before something snaps?

    Well Ashcoft had a poll last week which if I remember correctly suggested that only 1/3 of the 8% still voting LD's are sure to vote for them next year, so the bottom for the LD is around 2.5%.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    AllyM said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    Agreed.
    I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved
    Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.
    As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.
    Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?
    I've taken Friday off for that reason.

    Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off.
    Ive taken the rest of my life off and I am still tired out.

    Are you in Manchester next week for the PB meet?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited September 2014
    SeanT, I enjoyed seeing the last few photos on your Twitter site.
    Of course I hope NO wins.
  • Are the ICM tables out yet?
  • AllyM said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    Agreed.
    I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved
    Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.
    As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.
    Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?
    I've taken Friday off for that reason.

    Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off.
    Ive taken the rest of my life off and I am still tired out.

    Are you in Manchester next week for the PB meet?
    Yes, I'm doing a thread with location and timing in the day or so. Starts at 7pm in central Manchester
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AllyM said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Cracking spreadsheet.
    Why should a close vote delay the results - we're not electing an electoral college, just aggregating all the votes aren't we?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Socrates said:

    fitalass said:

    Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
    'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

    He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.
    I was thinking exactly the same thing.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited September 2014
    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
  • It's a No vote that will cause division I'm afraid. As a Nat since my childhood and my mother being a Nat long before I was borne, it's in the blood. I've waited for this moment all my life. That said, I genuinely do not like to feel that many fellow Scots feel divided from each other. I accept that much of the fault of this is dodgy policies on currency for example defended on the basis that we're being victimised if a foreign country doesn't want to be in a money union with us. That is absurd and the grievance brand nationalism is something I'm ashamed of.

    However, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scots have and always have been treated like second-class citizens. It's not just class issues it's identity too. For our pre-Union history our population was steady at one-sixth that of Englands. It's now around one-tenth. Our structural economic disadvantages, lack of central industrial policy, cultural suppression through the syllabus in schools and universities and the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    The reasons go on and on. This was never a Union. It was a political fix from the start and remains so. We would remain a colonised civilisation by voting No always with the wind against us. However, many English commentators just can't bring themselves to see the world as we see it - they just assume, because we are innately inferior, that we can't possibly understand what it is that we are doing and that we are driven by primitive, semi-animalistic motives. And there is the rub. We got you but you NEVER got us and that means there is and never was a Union.

    It is those, colonised in their own minds, who intend to vote No who will be dividing Scot against Scot. This Union cannot remain together whereas in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.
  • Are the ICM tables out yet?

    No, not yet, probably tomorrow lunchtime
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.ukipdaily.com/rise-eurosceptics-afd-electoral-success/#.VBdVd2RdWoc

    Rise of the Eurosceptics – AfD electoral success
  • Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

    Was the fieldwork for this done today? Yesterday?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    The Tory surge continues
    31% (-1)

    Single data point misuse there.
    The good think with yougov's daily polling is that if they have one rogue poll per week the others will even it out.
    Can't do that with monthly polls, you have to wait a whole month to see if your dissapointment or excitement are justified.
  • Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

    Was the fieldwork for this done today? Yesterday?
    Today and yesterday
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Congratulations to local NHS worker @LizMcInnes selected for Labour in Heywood & Middleton by-election.

    Take your pick...

    Greg Hands‏@GregHands·1 min
    Labourites anxiously tweet their new candidate in Heywood is "a healthcare scientist" or even "local NHS worker". She's a Unite union rep!
    And she's 1/50 with Hills... No value IMO
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    AllyM said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    Agreed.
    I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved
    Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.
    As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.
    Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?
    I've taken Friday off for that reason.

    Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off.
    Ive taken the rest of my life off and I am still tired out.

    Are you in Manchester next week for the PB meet?
    Yes, I'm doing a thread with location and timing in the day or so. Starts at 7pm in central Manchester
    Looking forward to it. Plenty to discuss and hopefully we may all be in good financial health following our indy ref bets coming good.

    Crosses fingers
  • Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

    Was the fieldwork for this done today? Yesterday?
    Today and yesterday
    Thanks (and for ICM info).

    We'll include ICM this week (when we get the tables), and include the YouGov in next week's ELBOW.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AllyM said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Cracking spreadsheet.
    Thanks. Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be completely wrong, lol.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    SeanT said:

    SeanT - So people should lie about what they think of the state of the Union is in order to keep Scotland in? Basically shoot the messenger rather than the people who have so ****** off the Scots. Funny way to look at it. What are you saying, that the Scots would be perfectly well enamoured of the Tories, it's just these blasted left-wing propagandists who are convincing them the Tories aren't great. Come off it.

    Monbiot goes WAYYYY beyond any measured, balanced critique of England and English governance into a kind of pathological self-loathing where Englishness is a form of leprosy, something inherently inferior and diseased which Scots must flee, not least because it it is also linked with capitalism and voting Tory and "money". Of course Scotland, once liberated, will cease to be capitalist and will become a pure barter economy, fuelled by renewable cirrus clouds, with no racist English Nazis.

    It is repulsive and disgusting, and it is also ridiculous, borderline racist. I hope Monbiot drops dead from potato blight.

    Isn't he Plaid Cymru now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014

    It's a No vote that will cause division I'm afraid. As a Nat since my c
    However, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scots have and always have been treated like second-class citizens. It's not just class issues it's identity too. For our pre-Union history our population was steady at one-sixth that of Englands. It's now around one-tenth. Our structural economic disadvantages, lack of central industrial policy, cultural suppression through the syllabus in schools and universities and the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    The reasons go on and on. This was never a Union. It was a political fix from the start and remains so. We would remain a colonised civilisation by voting No always with the wind against us. However, many English commentators just can't bring themselves to see the world as we see it - they just assume, because we are innately inferior, that we can't possibly understand what it is that we are doing and that we are driven by primitive, semi-animalistic motives. And there is the rub. We got you but you NEVER got us and that means there is and never was a Union.

    It is those, colonised in their own minds, who intend to vote No who will be dividing Scot against Scot. This Union cannot remain together whereas in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.

    You say No will cause division, but then go on to detail that really what you mean is it will not end division, as the division is already there.

    And this was a Union. Yes it was a political fix, but it was not as though plenty of Scotland has not been an enthusiastic part of it for a long time. Not so many now, but it is not credible to suggest for three whole centuries near to a majority were not accepting of their place in the Union, Also, why do you think English people think Scots are semi-animalistic in their motives? That's among the most bizarre things I've ever seen written on here.

    Additionally, one of the most common things a lot of No people say is, 'I understand why people consider voting Yes', even if they don't think it is the best solution.

    in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.

    Because it is not acceptable for someone to wish to be both Scottish and British? That must be set aside? It is totally ok for you and others not to wish that, but you demean anyone who does think that by dismissing it as 'colonised in their own minds'.

    How can you condemn the perceived belittling of your own position while belittling the opinion of those who think differently as invalid due to mental colonisation?
  • Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Free milk, brilliant.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    AllyM said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    Agreed.
    I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved
    Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.
    As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.
    Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?
    I've taken Friday off for that reason.

    Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off.
    Ive taken the rest of my life off and I am still tired out.

    Are you in Manchester next week for the PB meet?
    Yes, I'm doing a thread with location and timing in the day or so. Starts at 7pm in central Manchester
    Which day?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    alex said:


    I genuinely don't think "the English" care that much, and attempts to make them care are ultimately just rabble rousing by politicians (however theoretically logical their arguments). The English just want to be governed and don't like to be bothered with it (beyond getting asked if they are OK with the Government once every 4-5 years). They don't like political turmoil (which is why they don't particularly appreciate what is going on in Scotland) and aren't that fussed by EV4EL if it won't work (which it won't very well). What they certainly, IMO, don't want is any "solution" which involves increasing numbers of politicians (be it English Parliament, regional devolution etc). The English also know that at the end of the day in any Westminster Parliamentary battle which is genuinely England vs Scotland/Wales, they always have the votes to win.



    What the English want, I suspect, is effective government by representatives who they have elected. Whether that requires extra politicians doesn't seem to be a major consideration because every poll that has asked a straight English Parliament (and therefore more politicians) or no English Parliament question has shown a plurality of at least 2 to 1 and sometimes 3 to 1 if not a overall majority in favour of an English Parliament.

    http://toque.co.uk/english-parliament-opinion-polls
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Three guys that are shitting their knickers. Might even run to Diarrhea. By election day they'll be nervous wrecks.
  • Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    any idea what's happening on betfair in clacton, I've been spending a lot on there and suddenly it's all reversing nicely.... and not my money doing it this time!

    Only 37 grand matched? Call that a Political Betting market? That's like 30 seconds of Referendum action!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    Congratulations to local NHS worker @LizMcInnes selected for Labour in Heywood & Middleton by-election.

    Take your pick...

    Greg Hands‏@GregHands·1 min
    Labourites anxiously tweet their new candidate in Heywood is "a healthcare scientist" or even "local NHS worker". She's a Unite union rep!
    And she's 1/50 with Hills... No value IMO
    So?
    If Labour can't put trade unionists as candidates in safe seats, where can they put them?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Lennon said:

    AllyM said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    Agreed.
    I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved
    Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.
    As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.
    Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?
    I've taken Friday off for that reason.

    Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off.
    Ive taken the rest of my life off and I am still tired out.

    Are you in Manchester next week for the PB meet?
    Yes, I'm doing a thread with location and timing in the day or so. Starts at 7pm in central Manchester
    Which day?
    Tuesday
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Even with its limits, a GOP Senate would change the course of the Obama presidency http://t.co/cHC4eDPHrh pic.twitter.com/N44jjviyxX

    — POLITICO (@politico) September 15, 2014
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
  • Lennon said:

    AllyM said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    Agreed.
    I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved
    Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.
    As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.
    Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

    Sleep?? Sleep?

    Are you having a laugh?
    I've taken Friday off for that reason.

    Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.
    I've taken Thursday and Friday off.
    Ive taken the rest of my life off and I am still tired out.

    Are you in Manchester next week for the PB meet?
    Yes, I'm doing a thread with location and timing in the day or so. Starts at 7pm in central Manchester
    Which day?
    Tuesday the 23rd of September
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited September 2014
    twitter.com/Independent_SCO/status/511614644512116736/photo/1

    Mildly startling headline in the FT. (Still paywalled: I hope it will be free tomorrow like other indyref stories.)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited September 2014
    Five weeks of Sunil on Sunday ELBOWs reveal a trend of INCREASING Lab leads, save for a blip last week. Observe:

    17th Aug: 3.0%
    24th Aug: 3.5%
    31st Aug: 3.8%
    7th Sep: 3.0%
    14th Sep: 4.4%**

    ** excludes ICM data, but includes Ashcroft and Populus from this weekend.
  • welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Yeah, that was one thing I thought odd about Cameron's speech that didn't work, reference to the British Lions. Whoever wrote it for him clearly was not aware it's not been just the British Lions even in name for a while.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's a No vote that will cause division I'm afraid. As a Nat since my childhood and my mother being a Nat long before I was borne, it's in the blood. I've waited for this moment all my life. That said, I genuinely do not like to feel that many fellow Scots feel divided from each other. I accept that much of the fault of this is dodgy policies on currency for example defended on the basis that we're being victimised if a foreign country doesn't want to be in a money union with us. That is absurd and the grievance brand nationalism is something I'm ashamed of.

    However, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scots have and always have been treated like second-class citizens. It's not just class issues it's identity too. For our pre-Union history our population was steady at one-sixth that of Englands. It's now around one-tenth. Our structural economic disadvantages, lack of central industrial policy, cultural suppression through the syllabus in schools and universities and the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    The reasons go on and on. This was never a Union. It was a political fix from the start and remains so. We would remain a colonised civilisation by voting No always with the wind against us. However, many English commentators just can't bring themselves to see the world as we see it - they just assume, because we are innately inferior, that we can't possibly understand what it is that we are doing and that we are driven by primitive, semi-animalistic motives. And there is the rub. We got you but you NEVER got us and that means there is and never was a Union.

    It is those, colonised in their own minds, who intend to vote No who will be dividing Scot against Scot. This Union cannot remain together whereas in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.

    Bollocks.

    As a proud and patriotic Scot, I agree with almost NONE of your post.

    "in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence." That's just as daft as Eck's "No votes are just deferred Yes votes" insanity.

    This bit is right "the grievance brand nationalism is something I'm ashamed of. "
  • MikeK said:

    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Three guys that are shitting their knickers. Might even run to Diarrhea. By election day they'll be nervous wrecks.
    Is a vow different from a pledge? I think Cleggy should clarify.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited September 2014
    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Speedy said:

    isam said:

    Congratulations to local NHS worker @LizMcInnes selected for Labour in Heywood & Middleton by-election.

    Take your pick...

    Greg Hands‏@GregHands·1 min
    Labourites anxiously tweet their new candidate in Heywood is "a healthcare scientist" or even "local NHS worker". She's a Unite union rep!
    And she's 1/50 with Hills... No value IMO
    So?
    If Labour can't put trade unionists as candidates in safe seats, where can they put them?
    I don't know, I'm just saying what the betting odds are
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    It's a No vote that will cause division I'm afraid. As a Nat since my childhood and my mother being a Nat long before I was borne, it's in the blood. I've waited for this moment all my life. That said, I genuinely do not like to feel that many fellow Scots feel divided from each other. I accept that much of the fault of this is dodgy policies on currency for example defended on the basis that we're being victimised if a foreign country doesn't want to be in a money union with us. That is absurd and the grievance brand nationalism is something I'm ashamed of.

    However, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scots have and always have been treated like second-class citizens. It's not just class issues it's identity too. For our pre-Union history our population was steady at one-sixth that of Englands. It's now around one-tenth. Our structural economic disadvantages, lack of central industrial policy, cultural suppression through the syllabus in schools and universities and the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    The reasons go on and on. This was never a Union. It was a political fix from the start and remains so. We would remain a colonised civilisation by voting No always with the wind against us. However, many English commentators just can't bring themselves to see the world as we see it - they just assume, because we are innately inferior, that we can't possibly understand what it is that we are doing and that we are driven by primitive, semi-animalistic motives. And there is the rub. We got you but you NEVER got us and that means there is and never was a Union.

    It is those, colonised in their own minds, who intend to vote No who will be dividing Scot against Scot. This Union cannot remain together whereas in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.

    Scots have never been second-class citizens in the Union. Several Prime Ministers, and dozens of cabinet ministers have been Scottish.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's playing the conserned conservative:
    "Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 14
    SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels."

    I think he did have a call from his banker.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    Da iawn :-)
  • It's a No vote that will cause division I'm afraid. As a Nat since my childhood and my mother being a Nat long before I was borne, it's in the blood. I've waited for this moment all my life. That said, I genuinely do not like to feel that many fellow Scots feel divided from each other. I accept that much of the fault of this is dodgy policies on currency for example defended on the basis that we're being victimised if a foreign country doesn't want to be in a money union with us. That is absurd and the grievance brand nationalism is something I'm ashamed of.

    However, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scots have and always have been treated like second-class citizens. It's not just class issues it's identity too. For our pre-Union history our population was steady at one-sixth that of Englands. It's now around one-tenth. Our structural economic disadvantages, lack of central industrial policy, cultural suppression through the syllabus in schools and universities and the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    The reasons go on and on. This was never a Union. It was a political fix from the start and remains so. We would remain a colonised civilisation by voting No always with the wind against us. However, many English commentators just can't bring themselves to see the world as we see it - they just assume, because we are innately inferior, that we can't possibly understand what it is that we are doing and that we are driven by primitive, semi-animalistic motives. And there is the rub. We got you but you NEVER got us and that means there is and never was a Union.

    It is those, colonised in their own minds, who intend to vote No who will be dividing Scot against Scot. This Union cannot remain together whereas in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.

    Jaysus. How sad. I've just been out canvassing. Hadn't realised that all the folk I met who are passionately intending to vote No have been "colonised in their own minds".

    BD - you need to get out more. Would do you good.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Having read that front page, I now want YES to win
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Speedy said:

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's playing the conserned conservative:
    "Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 14
    SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels."

    I think he did have a call from his banker.
    Sounds more like a kipper
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2014
    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's fence sitting at the moment - looked like he was going to come out for YES this week, but then backed tracked over the EU. - no doubt he'll now wait till the Wednesday polls before deciding which way to jump. - perhaps it's just me, but I think he's just having a laugh and attempting to make every one as uncomfortable as possible - the old rascal...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Brian Cox 'This is a movement for social democracy' on newsnight now
  • I cannot agree that we'll all come together after a Yes vote and it'll be all sweetness and light. I will always be a Scot who is proud to be British and I will never be reconciled to having my Country ripped apart. I only personally know 2 people who are voting Yes and I will never be the same with them again. I feel a strange sort of hurt inside, it's very strange My grown up children feel the same and they fear for the future of their children, my grandchildren. Nothing will ever be the same!
  • I don't see how Dave can say if Scotland's independence is irreversible. Throughout the last 1000 years, Scotland has kinda oscillated between English fief, independence and British Union.
  • the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    To be fair, I have disdain for the working class, and I don't speak with received pronunciation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014
    Bollocks.

    As a proud and patriotic Scot, I agree with almost NONE of your post.

    "in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence." That's just as daft as Eck's "No votes are just deferred Yes votes" insanity.

    This bit is right "the grievance brand nationalism is something I'm ashamed of. "


    You just have a mind that has been colonized apparently, so your views are not validly Scottish.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    isam said:

    Speedy said:

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's playing the conserned conservative:
    "Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 14
    SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels."

    I think he did have a call from his banker.
    Sounds more like a kipper
    True, but we know he is just acting (perhaps forcefully), he nailed his colours on the SNP mast years ago.
  • The English also know that at the end of the day in any Westminster Parliamentary battle which is genuinely England vs Scotland/Wales, they always have the votes to win.

    They also know that on three occasions England has voted for a certain party to be governed by and in fact got something completely different. Granted other Home nations have had it happen to them more but they now have their own Parliament/ Assembly (with more politicians).
  • kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Yeah, that was one thing I thought odd about Cameron's speech that didn't work, reference to the British Lions. Whoever wrote it for him clearly was not aware it's not been just the British Lions even in name for a while.
    Ignorance is bliss!
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:


    You just have a mind that has been colonized apparently, so your views are not validly Scottish.

    It's ok, apparently I can be cured. Eventually...
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

    You provide no evidence for any of that speculation. I do not see anything beong hurried. you propbably base your speculation on Browns speech which was a typical gem of a Brown speech which as ever relied on all his ducks being dutiful in forming a nice row and he entore world spinning effortlessly to his serene desire.
    The issue revolves around the role of Scottish MPs after 2015. If there is a Yes vote then as the Queen says the English will have to think very carefully about their future and I suggest they would be mad to elect a Labour majority that on current political arithmetic has a vested interet in giving sweeteners to an independent Scotland.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    !
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    I don't see how Dave can say if Scotland's independence is irreversible. Throughout the last 1000 years, Scotland has kinda oscillated between English fief, independence and British Union.

    We'll see once an independent scotland goes bankrupt in 10 years, if the price for a bailout will be another act of union.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    edited September 2014

    Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

    Was the fieldwork for this done today? Yesterday?
    Fieldwork for YG is I believe always for the 24 hours till the morning of the day it's reported.
    alex said:



    I genuinely don't think "the English" care that much, and attempts to make them care are ultimately just rabble rousing by politicians (however theoretically logical their arguments). The English just want to be governed and don't like to be bothered with it (beyond getting asked if they are OK with the Government once every 4-5 years). They don't like political turmoil (which is why they don't particularly appreciate what is going on in Scotland) and aren't that fussed by EV4EL if it won't work (which it won't very well). What they certainly, IMO, don't want is any "solution" which involves increasing numbers of politicians (be it English Parliament, regional devolution etc). The English also know that at the end of the day in any Westminster Parliamentary battle which is genuinely England vs Scotland/Wales, they always have the votes to win.

    Spot on. It's all a bit AV vs FPTP/regional governments/open vs closed lists. Most people just don't want to know.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: 'The civility of the campaign is unbelievable... that's what distinguishes us as a nation' Brian Cox tells #newsnight #indyref

    Guess he wasn't outside the BBC the other day then
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    edited September 2014
    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    I did a 'Rupe' watch earlier.

    He was providing less trolling today.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    AggieD said:

    I cannot agree that we'll all come together after a Yes vote and it'll be all sweetness and light. I will always be a Scot who is proud to be British and I will never be reconciled to having my Country ripped apart. I only personally know 2 people who are voting Yes and I will never be the same with them again. I feel a strange sort of hurt inside, it's very strange My grown up children feel the same and they fear for the future of their children, my grandchildren. Nothing will ever be the same!

    Would you think about leaving?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's fence sitting at the moment - looked like he was going to come out for YES this week, but then backed tracked over the EU. - no doubt he'll now wait till the Wednesday polls before deciding which way to jump. - perhaps it's just me, but I think he's just having a laugh and attempting to make every one as uncomfortable as possible - the old rascal...
    Yep, I'm sure he holds a grudge against us for giving him a hard time over his red tops, or whatever they're called.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    !
    England appearances in a Rugby World Cup Final 3 - Rest of the Home Nations, Zero.

    I'm right.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    You say that in a Melrose pub during the Sevens, you'll need to buy a lot of drinks very quickly!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    Could Dave please shut up for a moment, 10,000 ordinary people came to Trafalgar Square tonight, yet apart from a brief clip on BBC 1 news it has been all Cameron. Dave you got the question wrong in this referendum and failed to allow Devomax, could you allow the people of the rest of the UK to have their say for an evening, they might actually be able to reach out to the average floating Scot rather better than you can!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    I don't see how Dave can say if Scotland's independence is irreversible. Throughout the last 1000 years, Scotland has kinda oscillated between English fief, independence and British Union.

    Strictly speaking you are correct - he cannot speak for the genetically engineered humans and robot citizens of a future Scotland and rUk about whether they should remerge after all - but given a lot of the arguments for and against have been on some pretty temporary issues (eg bedroom tax), then it being irreversible for at least a generation is near enough to get the point across. The trend does seem to be toward nations splitting rather than merging thesedays too, unless the EU gets its way.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Thank GOD Miriam O'Reilly didn't win the Labour nom. By most accounts, the one chosen was the least-bad option (she atleast is vaguely local).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    HYUFD said:

    Could Dave please shut up for a moment, 10,000 ordinary people came to Trafalgar Square tonight, yet apart from a brief clip on BBC 1 news it has been all Cameron, Dave you got the question wrong in this referendum and failed to allow Devomax, could you allow the people of the rest of the UK to have their say for an evening, they might actually be able to reach out to the average floating Scot rather better than you can!

    Maybe they should have organised for tomorrow instead?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    !
    England appearances in a Rugby World Cup Final 3 - Rest of the Home Nations, Zero.

    I'm right.
    England v Wales W 57 L 56 12 D. In the spirit of friendly unionism that's pretty darned even. Mind you that's 55m v 3m so per capita.......
  • By the way, all this stuff from Salmond et al about what a wonderful liberating experience this referendum campaign is self-serving pish. I live and work in the north of Scotland. It has been poisonously divisive in many instances and a lot of relationships have been damaged by it. The whole thing has been deeply irresponsible and has pandered to the most rebarbative instincts.

    Seant is right about George Monbiot. He's very interesting and often thought-provoking on environmental issues but a complete bampot when he strays from that brief.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    !
    England appearances in a Rugby World Cup Final 3 - Rest of the Home Nations, Zero.

    I'm right.
    England v Wales W 57 L 56 12 D. In the spirit of friendly unionism that's pretty darned even. Mind you that's 55m v 3m so per capita.......
    I think if the World cup had existed in the 70s, Wales might have won a few World Cups
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    SeanT Of course Monbiot will soon find himself on the establishment side if we get a Euro referendum, in which case rather than the plucky campaigners for change he will be turning his snooty nose up at the revolting plebs!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tomorrows BESUS 84 mins early

    16.9.14 LAB 331 (332) CON 262(261) LD 33(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 232 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
  • glwglw Posts: 9,954
    edited September 2014
    Speedy said:

    Toms said:

    I wonder what Murdoch's up to. Or have I missed something?

    He's playing the conserned conservative:
    "Rupert Murdoch @rupertmurdoch · Sep 14
    SNP not talking about independence, but more more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels."

    I think he did have a call from his banker.
    Does Murdoch have any redeeming qualities? He appears to be a wholly malignant individual with no concerns other than what will promote his own interests, which is primarily enriching himself at the expense of others and wider society.
  • I'm just looking forward to the Independent's front-page headline the day after.

    Something along the lines of "Scotland is. Are you?"
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    !
    England appearances in a Rugby World Cup Final 3 - Rest of the Home Nations, Zero.

    I'm right.
    England v Wales W 57 L 56 12 D. In the spirit of friendly unionism that's pretty darned even. Mind you that's 55m v 3m so per capita.......
    I think if the World cup had existed in the 70s, Wales might have won a few World Cups
    Very gracious sir.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Carnyx said:

    AllyM said:

    I know nigh nobody is influenced by the papers anymore but;

    That is some Daily Record front page.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmeeoWCYAAjXmV.jpg

    That one I rather safely assume.
    Having read that front page, I now want YES to win
    Nick Clegg signing a pledge, nay, a Vow. Guaranteed not to back fire.

    David Cameron talking about Scotland getting control over its revenue - is it this David Cameron?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NthEdcoQ_Hs

    I'm sure that won't be mentioned

    And Ed Milliband.
  • The cheek!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29203695

    "The former prime minister has already argued that the UK is on course for major constitutional change even in the event of a No vote. He wants a guarantee that any future constitutional change will be made with Scotland's involvement. Some will fear that without such a guarantee, calls for more powers for England could be debated without Scotland being consulted."

    Erm.. OK Mr Brown. So when have the English ever been consulted about Scottish constitutional reform, hmm.

    Absolutely unbelievable. This man ran our country for three years.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    I see someone with a sense of humour is offering absent-minded Betfair punters a 1-33 bet on the LibDems winning in Clacton. You can get £66000 on, and win £2000. Then you can move on to bet £250,000 at 1-50.

    Do your own research. :-)
  • AggieD said:

    Nothing will ever be the same!

    Good.

    http://tinyurl.com/lof89hs
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    edited September 2014
    AndyJS said:

    AllyM said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

    Cracking spreadsheet.
    Thanks. Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be completely wrong, lol.
    Have No not lost about 50K votes since the last one? That was careless.

    I am off all day Thursday but on Friday I am taking my wife and daughter to Durham to apply for asylum attend an open day.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Tomorrows BESUS 84 mins early

    16.9.14 LAB 331 (332) CON 262(261) LD 33(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 232 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    What price ukip get at least one seat?

    I'll bet 1/2 they get one or more
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @NorthBriton
    It's been pretty civilized down here. Must be all that highland spirit you are drinking up there
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    !
    England appearances in a Rugby World Cup Final 3 - Rest of the Home Nations, Zero.

    I'm right.
    England v Wales W 57 L 56 12 D. In the spirit of friendly unionism that's pretty darned even. Mind you that's 55m v 3m so per capita.......
    I think if the World cup had existed in the 70s, Wales might have won a few World Cups
    Very gracious sir.
    One of my oldest and dearest friends is a Proud Welshman, I enjoy winding him up over the Rugby, as he enjoyed Wales denying England a Grand Slam in 1999 far too much.

    Though I got my revenge in 2003, though I used to sing "Land not quite of my fathers" at him when Graham Henry was selecting people who had never been to Wales to play for Wales.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Carnyx said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    You say that in a Melrose pub during the Sevens, you'll need to buy a lot of drinks very quickly!

    The Melrose Sevens used to be a major event. But professionalism put paid to that. I'm an RL fan BTW so I look upon that with a certain wry irony.
    But its a big world out there and good luck to iScotland finding a way through it without a currency a central bank and a way into joining an ever closer federal union in the form of the massive EU.
    The fate of the Melrose Sevens ought to be a warning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    edited September 2014
    kle4 Maybe, but he would have been aware it was taking place when he spoke

  • However, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Scots have and always have been treated like second-class citizens. It's not just class issues it's identity too. For our pre-Union history our population was steady at one-sixth that of Englands. It's now around one-tenth. Our structural economic disadvantages, lack of central industrial policy, cultural suppression through the syllabus in schools and universities and the class disdain that treats not just the working class like scum but regions as though they are scum because they don't speak RP..

    The reasons go on and on. This was never a Union. It was a political fix from the start and remains so. We would remain a colonised civilisation by voting No always with the wind against us. However, many English commentators just can't bring themselves to see the world as we see it - they just assume, because we are innately inferior, that we can't possibly understand what it is that we are doing and that we are driven by primitive, semi-animalistic motives. And there is the rub. We got you but you NEVER got us and that means there is and never was a Union.

    It is those, colonised in their own minds, who intend to vote No who will be dividing Scot against Scot. This Union cannot remain together whereas in time all Scots will set aside their differences after independence. That's the bottom line.

    Let me put the caps lock on so you can hear me. THIS IS IN YOUR HEAD. Are we in the 1930s? Who is treating you like 'scum' because you don't speak RP ffs? Who's doing this class disdain to you -P.G Wodehouse? Nancy Mitford? Earl Hague? David (clue's in the name) Cameron? Tony (clue's in the name) Blair? Miss Marple?

    Who has TIME to wake up and muse to themselves that Scottish people are 'innately inferior'? Just because you go on to these websites and you're all solemnly musing these things to each other in nice sounding prose with pretty pictures doen't mean it's not BOLLOCKS.

    The people who are voting 'no' are those who are NOT mentally colonised. They are those who are self confident, secure and happy to be part of a fantastic country, and just don't have this huge inferiority complex resentment baggage that you're clearly carrying, and you've been encouraged to add to by the company you keep. Read your own writing -is this really the pish that your argument is founded upon? You're about the rip the country down the middle, and push your fellow scots into poverty, on the basis of little more than imagined slight. Bottom line.

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Bah, just reading an article that says an independent Scotland would bugger up the British and Irish Lions.

    Why? The Irish Republic has players now.
    Is more a name change

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/britishandirishlionsrugby/11092193/British-and-Irish-Lions-could-be-rebranded-The-Lions-if-Scotland-gains-independence-from-United-Kingdom.html
    World is not going to end really is it on this one.
    I know, winning world cups is what Rugby is all about, as any Scot, Welshman and Irishman can attest to, oh wait

    *Innocent Face*
    England Rugby - Better Together Alone?

    :)
    Yeah, I don't think the Welsh, Irish and Scots are as passionate as us English when it comes to Rugby
    !
    England appearances in a Rugby World Cup Final 3 - Rest of the Home Nations, Zero.

    I'm right.
    England v Wales W 57 L 56 12 D. In the spirit of friendly unionism that's pretty darned even. Mind you that's 55m v 3m so per capita.......
    How's your record against New Zealand, population 4.5m?
This discussion has been closed.