DavidL : "Right now if someone offered me 52:48 for no I would bite their hand off. I would not be surprised if it was even closer. The polling has shown Yes getting at least their share of don't knows to date and we are just hoping that as the day gets closer these slightly weird people get more cautious. I personally think it very unlikely yes will get less than 45%. Delighted, indeed delerious , but surprised."
You make it sound like I am advocating a 40% - 45% YES vote as being the PROBABLE outcome. I most assuredly am not. What I am suggesting is that net odds of 11/4 against such an eventuality, which equates to a probability of 26.7% represents fair value in my opinion, nothing more, nothing less.
@alstewitn: #Indyref @BBCNewsnight I think the Spanish gentleman just said an independent Scotland would have to wait 5 years to join EU, then use Euro
@BBCNewsnight: 'You have to follow the procedure to be a member of the EU... It is a process that takes around 5yrs', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight
@BBCNewsnight: 'I don't see in the future for any new member state to not be part of the Euro', Spanish Europe Minister #newsnight
Can't wait to hear Salmonds reaction... Wonder if it'll be laced with the same bitterness as against Tony Abbott.
Tony Abbott is a right tool. He condones torture and is very friendly with the war criminals who run Sri Lanka.
Salmond may not be right much but with regards Abbott he is spot on...
War criminals do not run Sri Lanka - but they did spend years fighting mad murderous terrorists. People are not dying because those terrorists have been defeated despite them using women and children as human shields.
And what is your particular expertise?
I was born in Sri Lanka, lived in a Sri Lanka and have family in Sri Lanka.
I may not be a fan of Cameron but we both share have the same opinion of the vile regime in Colombo. The UNHRC investigation that is currently underway will be very insightful to ignorant 'know it all' fools like you.
I'm sure you'd agree with the Spanish govt. when it comes to Gibraltar?
Just because we agree with them on one thing, does not mean we agree with them on all things!
I'm sure Spain has legal advice proving the Rock is occupied territory - doesn't mean they're right
Ahem, the Treaty of Utrecht.
The Spanish can't read their own treaties, it would seem ;-)
The Catholic King does hereby, for himself, his heirs and successors, yield to the Crown of Great Britain the full and entire propriety of the town and castle of Gibraltar, together with the port, fortifications, and forts thereunto belonging; and he gives up the said propriety to be held and enjoyed absolutely with all manner of right for ever, without any exception or impediment whatsoever.
He's chosen as his name that of the son of the first noble to support WILLIAM WALLACE!!! He was a close ally of Robert Bruce and, on his death and instruction, took Bruce's heart with him on a crusade to Spain.
I'm supposedly descended from Black Douglas (like, presumably, about 5 million other people) through the Scottish branch of the family. We've been Unionist for a few hundred years, though - blood running thin, no doubt.
My Mum's father was descended from a long line of Ulster Orangemen, and my Dad's grandfather was an Irish catholic pig farmer. We've had no sectarian violence in our family though
So we're gunning for a country which has claimed UK territory for a touch over 300 years when it comes to them not supporting secession of another part of our territory that has been British for a touch over 300 years?
"Unspoofable" as a former Scottish member of this parish might say
As I said Sunil, their EU veto means nothing wrt Gib. Their veto means everything wrt iScotland's accession to the EU.
I've a feeling that these cold, hard facts won't stop another relentless Sunil-meme.
I think your obsession with me looks like the stirrings of a JonnyJimmy-meme, correct?
Or, maybe, I'm trying to stop you from taking the Spain/Gibraltar thing as painfully far as you've taken the football/rugby thing. Just for your own good.
Note: The subject JonnyJimmy responds to the stimulus as predicted!
The Madrid view on Scotland's smooth accession is not new and they obviously hope it will help No win.
But if Yes wins and then Madrid exercises its veto and by implication promises the same for Catalonia, the people of Catalonia will, I expect, really hate such bullying and Madrid will more likely lose the referendum.
The people who are voting 'no' are those who are NOT mentally colonised. They are those who are self confident, secure and happy to be part of a fantastic country, and just don't have this huge inferiority complex resentment baggage that you're clearly carrying, and you've been encouraged to add to by the company you keep. Read your own writing -is this really the pish that your argument is founded upon? You're about the rip the country down the middle, and push your fellow scots into poverty, on the basis of little more than imagined slight. Bottom line.
Na, it's just a wee bit too subtle for you to understand. The cultural supremacism is there still. It exists in our increasingly aglocised universities where if you don't speak closer and closer to RP then there's something not quite right with you. There's the bullying Oxbridge rejects who, if you don't guffaw with them and sound like them then how could possibly understand art and philosophy? And they are cliquey and have a sense of entitlement that the more humble Scots find repellent. They don't try to think they are superior they just feel that because of the way they talk that they have special insights that we barbarians just can't manage. To them paintings are there for intellectual stimulation but for us they are just pictures on the walls.
"push your fellow scots into poverty" - pure assumption based on nothing but group narcissism.
George Monbiot is a posh English southerner who rebelled against his parents because he thought it was cool. Does he really think that we care one iota what he thinks? In fact does he even know where Scotland is? I am so glad that the Yes campaign have people like him supporting them.
I am growing calmer every day. The polls are pretty good on some levels. I have not met a woman over 50 who plans to vote Yes. Middle aged, male and badly dressed is however a good indicator for a possible Yes. The No campaign sounded quietly confident on the radio today and they are taking the fight to the Yes heartlands.
Few important events left now. Will be interesting to see how many Rangers fans turn up tomorrow night at Ibrox.
How d'ye think the 8,000 Govan shipyard workers are voting?
No if they value their jobs...
Whooosh...
A while since you were in the vicinity of Castle Greyskull?
The Madrid view on Scotland's smooth accession is not new and they obviously hope it will help No win.
But if Yes wins and then Madrid exercises its veto and by implication promises the same for Catalonia, the people of Catalonia will, I expect, really hate such bullying and Madrid will more likely lose the referendum.
We could always threaten to back the Catalans to the hilt unless the Madrid junta drop their claim to Gib
The people who are voting 'no' are those who are NOT mentally colonised. They are those who are self confident, secure and happy to be part of a fantastic country, and just don't have this huge inferiority complex resentment baggage that you're clearly carrying, and you've been encouraged to add to by the company you keep. Read your own writing -is this really the pish that your argument is founded upon? You're about the rip the country down the middle, and push your fellow scots into poverty, on the basis of little more than imagined slight. Bottom line.
Na, it's just a wee bit too subtle for you to understand. The cultural supremacism is there still. It exists in our increasingly aglocised universities where if you don't speak closer and closer to RP then there's something not quite right with you. There's the bullying Oxbridge rejects who, if you don't guffaw with them and sound like them then how could possibly understand art and philosophy? And they are cliquey and have a sense of entitlement that the more humble Scots find repellent. They don't try to think they are superior they just feel that because of the way they talk that they have special insights that we barbarians just can't manage. To them paintings are there for intellectual stimulation but for us they are just pictures on the walls.
"push your fellow scots into poverty" - pure assumption based on nothing but group narcissism.
I really just expect another prejudiced reactionary rant rather than a good think to yourself but in the end it's your loss.
You demonstrate extremely prejudiced views in a rant (dismissing the views of anyone voting No as down to some kind of cultural cringe alone) and then criticise someone else for ranting in reply. Absurd.
Good night everyone, the following days will be bitter indeed when some on both sides not only demonise the other side, but treat them as though they cannot even think properly, that their views are not even valid for some reason. Even the leaders of both campaigns don't do that.
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
The Madrid view on Scotland's smooth accession is not new and they obviously hope it will help No win.
But if Yes wins and then Madrid exercises its veto and by implication promises the same for Catalonia, the people of Catalonia will, I expect, really hate such bullying and Madrid will more likely lose the referendum.
We could always threaten to back the Catalans to the hilt unless the Madrid junta drop their claim to Gib
It is a period of civil war. Nationalist spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Conservative Empire. During the battle, SNP spies managed to steal secret plans to the Empire's ultimate weapon, the Gordon, an armored space station with enough power to destroy an entire nation's gold reserves. Pursued by the Empire's sinister agents, Princess Nicola races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her people and restore freedom to the British Isles...
It is a period of civil war. Nationalist spaceships, striking from a hidden base, have won their first victory against the evil Conservative Empire. During the battle, SNP spies managed to steal secret plans to the Empire's ultimate weapon, the Gordon, an armored space station with enough power to destroy an entire nation's gold reserves. Pursued by the Empire's sinister agents, Princess Nicola races home aboard her starship, custodian of the stolen plans that can save her people and restore freedom to the British Isles...
The name Black Douglas was a dead give away from the start. This is a classic case of a quite clever spoof poster trolling PB over Indy Ref debate, and they have been quite successful it would seem.
'BlackDouglas' makes me angry and he should realise that his ilk do not have a monopoly on self rightious indignation.
He effectively attacks me and everyone like me when he implies we are treating Scots like some kind of slaves. It's downright ignorant and stupid. I take great affront. I like and love Scotland but if he keeps on like that I will never go near the place again. What a tragedy - Scotland is part of MY country. Until devolution Scotland had more MPs. If the Stuarts had been more sane (in a rational sense) and less interested in religious hegemony then we would still have a Stuart Monarchy (others can argue if that would be good or bad thats not the point) - the point is there is no colonisation of Scotland - Jeeezus H Kerist, its currently building 2 giant carriers foir the Royal Navy - it has and I hope will continue to play a full and active part in OUR country!!
It is amazing sad and appalling in equal measure that 'BD' can give out such drivel. I'm coming to the view the Nats are only interested in their view of 'independence' - they see it as a way to impose their political prejudice in their little neck of the woods.
He's chosen as his name that of the son of the first noble to support WILLIAM WALLACE!!! He was a close ally of Robert Bruce and, on his death and instruction, took Bruce's heart with him on a crusade to Spain.
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
Have you not seen my many frequent mentions of:
Vote NO, get Ed!
I've seen your many frequent mentions of many frequent things and it's hard to keep up with what you actually believe.
DavidL : "Right now if someone offered me 52:48 for no I would bite their hand off. I would not be surprised if it was even closer. The polling has shown Yes getting at least their share of don't knows to date and we are just hoping that as the day gets closer these slightly weird people get more cautious. I personally think it very unlikely yes will get less than 45%. Delighted, indeed delerious , but surprised."
You make it sound like I am advocating a 40% - 45% YES vote as being the PROBABLE outcome. I most assuredly am not. What I am suggesting is that net odds of 11/4 against such an eventuality, which equates to a probability of 26.7% represents fair value in my opinion, nothing more, nothing less.
You may well be right pfp, but I suspect the odds on that band will edge up slightly before the polls on Wednesday night - and quite possibly go higher afterwards. My final indyref betting strategy will probably be to bet against the polls on Wednesday night, depending on the odds, of course.
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
Have you not seen my many frequent mentions of:
Vote NO, get Ed!
I've seen your many frequent mentions of many frequent things and it's hard to keep up with what you actually believe.
Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
The name Black Douglas was a dead give away from the start. This is a classic case of a quite clever spoof poster trolling PB over Indy Ref debate, and they have been quite successful it would seem.
'BlackDouglas' makes me angry and he should realise that his ilk do not have a monopoly on self rightious indignation.
He effectively attacks me and everyone like me when he implies we are treating Scots like some kind of slaves. It's downright ignorant and stupid. I take great affront. I like and love Scotland but if he keeps on like that I will never go near the place again. What a tragedy - Scotland is part of MY country. Until devolution Scotland had more MPs. If the Stuarts had been more sane (in a rational sense) and less interested in religious hegemony then we would still have a Stuart Monarchy (others can argue if that would be good or bad thats not the point) - the point is there is no colonisation of Scotland - Jeeezus H Kerist, its currently building 2 giant carriers foir the Royal Navy - it has and I hope will continue to play a full and active part in OUR country!!
It is amazing sad and appalling in equal measure that 'BD' can give out such drivel. I'm coming to the view the Nats are only interested in their view of 'independence' - they see it as a way to impose their political prejudice in their little neck of the woods.
He's chosen as his name that of the son of the first noble to support WILLIAM WALLACE!!! He was a close ally of Robert Bruce and, on his death and instruction, took Bruce's heart with him on a crusade to Spain.
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
Have you not seen my many frequent mentions of:
Vote NO, get Ed!
I've seen your many frequent mentions of many frequent things and it's hard to keep up with what you actually believe.
Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
Are you trying to be hired as a slogan writer for any side that'll pay you for it?
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
The people who are voting 'no' are those who are NOT mentally colonised. They are those who are self confident, secure and happy to be part of a fantastic country, and just don't have this huge inferiority complex resentment baggage that you're clearly carrying, and you've been encouraged to add to by the company you keep. Read your own writing -is this really the pish that your argument is founded upon? You're about the rip the country down the middle, and push your fellow scots into poverty, on the basis of little more than imagined slight. Bottom line.
Na, it's just a wee bit too subtle for you to understand. The cultural supremacism is there still. It exists in our increasingly aglocised universities where if you don't speak closer and closer to RP then there's something not quite right with you. There's the bullying Oxbridge rejects who, if you don't guffaw with them and sound like them then how could possibly understand art and philosophy? And they are cliquey and have a sense of entitlement that the more humble Scots find repellent. They don't try to think they are superior they just feel that because of the way they talk that they have special insights that we barbarians just can't manage. To them paintings are there for intellectual stimulation but for us they are just pictures on the walls.
"push your fellow scots into poverty" - pure assumption based on nothing but group narcissism.
I really just expect another prejudiced reactionary rant rather than a good think to yourself but in the end it's your loss.
Hahahahah ok, very good. I'll admit I was completely taken in. It's actually scarily close to how some of them think though. Stylistically it could totally have come off that Godawful site.
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
Have you not seen my many frequent mentions of:
Vote NO, get Ed!
I've seen your many frequent mentions of many frequent things and it's hard to keep up with what you actually believe.
Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
Are you trying to be hired as a slogan writer for any side that'll pay you for it?
How are the two inconsistent? Let's line them up together shall we?
Vote NO, get Ed!* Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
Have you not seen my many frequent mentions of:
Vote NO, get Ed!
I've seen your many frequent mentions of many frequent things and it's hard to keep up with what you actually believe.
Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
Are you trying to be hired as a slogan writer for any side that'll pay you for it?
How are the two inconsistent? Let's line them up together shall we?
Vote NO, get Ed!* Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
Have you not seen my many frequent mentions of:
Vote NO, get Ed!
I've seen your many frequent mentions of many frequent things and it's hard to keep up with what you actually believe.
Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
Are you trying to be hired as a slogan writer for any side that'll pay you for it?
How are the two inconsistent? Let's line them up together shall we?
Vote NO, get Ed!* Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
(* BTW this is based on "Vote UKIP, get Ed!")
Add them to the sports thing (are we truly Better Together? ) and the Gibraltar thing. And the Cameron toff thing that you throw in now and again. You do paint a confusing picture...
@Sunil_Prasannan are you actually a Yes supporter, and a Gibraltar back to Spain supporter, or are you just in your naive, clumsy way trying to point out some inconsistencies in unionist thinking?
Have you not seen my many frequent mentions of:
Vote NO, get Ed!
I've seen your many frequent mentions of many frequent things and it's hard to keep up with what you actually believe.
Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
Are you trying to be hired as a slogan writer for any side that'll pay you for it?
How are the two inconsistent? Let's line them up together shall we?
Vote NO, get Ed!* Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
You demonstrate extremely prejudiced views in a rant (dismissing the views of anyone voting No as down to some kind of cultural cringe alone) and then criticise someone else for ranting in reply. Absurd.
Good night everyone, the following days will be bitter indeed when some on both sides not only demonise the other side, but treat them as though they cannot even think properly, that their views are not even valid for some reason. Even the leaders of both campaigns don't do that.
This site is jam-packed full of elitists telling us that if Scot nats knew how to think they would not be breaking up the family. What sanctimonious piffel and that reality exposes your bedtime homily as hypocrisy and arrogance.
I am not dismissing the views of anyone in this referendum and I have the right to question the thinking and thought process of my fellow Scots - that is the essence of debate.
The consistent blind assumption that Nats are subjecting fellow Scots to penury is at root a supremacist argument as is the continuous examples on this board where evidence is require to prove that Scots have the ability to look after ourselves and then you lot will be the judge of our case - "A people cannot be asked to settle in advance of independence how they shall act in hypothetical situations. We are being asked to provide a priori evidence of our fitness to determine our own existence before the freedom to do so is allowed."
How does the colonisation work?: "Power is a function of its privileged ruling elite. To be properly ‘British’ is to submit to English hierarchy and to recognise, affirm and assert the glory of its value system. This is achieved domestically on a daily basis within ‘British’ education and cultural institutions. Those who oppose this supremacist ideology are criticised for not being properly British, condemned as unpatriotic. Those Scottish, Welsh or Irish people who oppose this supremacist ideology are condemned as anti-English. The ‘British way’ is sold at home and abroad as a thing of beauty, a self-sufficient entity that comes complete with its own ethical system, sturdy and robust, guaranteed to outlast all others.
British people are led to believe that the Royal Family are admired, loved and glorified across the globe. Should another Solar System contain life upon any of its myriad planets its inhabitants will not only accede to the Christian church but acknowledge the Head of the English Royal Family as Defender of the Faith, in competition with the Pope, standing next in line to God."
This site is jam-packed full of elitists telling us that if Scot nats knew how to think they would not be breaking up the family. What sanctimonious piffel and that reality exposes your bedtime homily as hypocrisy and arrogance.
I am not dismissing the views of anyone in this referendum and I have the right to question the thinking and thought process of my fellow Scots - that is the essence of debate.
The consistent blind assumption that Nats are subjecting fellow Scots to penury is at root a supremacist argument as is the continuous examples on this board where evidence is require to prove that Scots have the ability to look after ourselves and then you lot will be the judge of our case - "A people cannot be asked to settle in advance of independence how they shall act in hypothetical situations. We are being asked to provide a priori evidence of our fitness to determine our own existence before the freedom to do so is allowed."
How does the colonisation work?: "Power is a function of its privileged ruling elite. To be properly ‘British’ is to submit to English hierarchy and to recognise, affirm and assert the glory of its value system. This is achieved domestically on a daily basis within ‘British’ education and cultural institutions. Those who oppose this supremacist ideology are criticised for not being properly British, condemned as unpatriotic. Those Scottish, Welsh or Irish people who oppose this supremacist ideology are condemned as anti-English. The ‘British way’ is sold at home and abroad as a thing of beauty, a self-sufficient entity that comes complete with its own ethical system, sturdy and robust, guaranteed to outlast all others.
British people are led to believe that the Royal Family are admired, loved and glorified across the globe. Should another Solar System contain life upon any of its myriad planets its inhabitants will not only accede to the Christian church but acknowledge the Head of the English Royal Family as Defender of the Faith, in competition with the Pope, standing next in line to God."
Have quoted you properly, so people can see your post.
The Madrid view on Scotland's smooth accession is not new and they obviously hope it will help No win.
But if Yes wins and then Madrid exercises its veto and by implication promises the same for Catalonia, the people of Catalonia will, I expect, really hate such bullying and Madrid will more likely lose the referendum.
We could always threaten to back the Catalans to the hilt unless the Madrid junta drop their claim to Gib
The way rUK and Scotland get what they want is for Scotland to carry on as the UK while rUK is annexed by Gibraltar. That way Scotland get veto-proof EU membership while England gets an opt-out from the CAP.
George Monbiot is a posh English southerner who rebelled against his parents because he thought it was cool. Does he really think that we care one iota what he thinks? In fact does he even know where Scotland is? I am so glad that the Yes campaign have people like him supporting them.
I am growing calmer every day. The polls are pretty good on some levels. I have not met a woman over 50 who plans to vote Yes. Middle aged, male and badly dressed is however a good indicator for a possible Yes. The No campaign sounded quietly confident on the radio today and they are taking the fight to the Yes heartlands.
Few important events left now. Will be interesting to see how many Rangers fans turn up tomorrow night at Ibrox.
If what you were telling us the other day is true and you've really been ending long-standing business contracts with people who said they were voting Yes, you may not be the best person to get people's genuine voting intentions in an ad-hoc opinion poll...
Sunil Yes, but the point is it still leads without Scotland too so your point is utterly irrelevant, all indy will do however is see a swing to UKIP to stop currency union
Governments come and go, the breakup of Britain lasts a lifetime
HYUFD I don't see how Dave can say if Scotland's independence is irreversible. Throughout the last 1000 years, Scotland has kinda oscillated between an English fief, independence and British Union
Sunil Scotland had centuries of wars with England as a separate nation, before the 1707 union and general relative peace between us since that point after the brief spat of the 1715 and 1745 rebellions, the omens are not good
Well every nation is a figment of imagination to some degree, but that does not mean that breaking a nation up will not lead to potential economic disaster and deep divisions, good night!
Rod, have you done a prediction by council area? Sorry if I missed it earlier.
No, I'm not predicting, as such. (What the hell do I know about Scotland?) But I should have something that takes a stab at the final result, as declarations flow in...
The Greens are doing well and nibbling away at Labour's left flank.This left strategy vacates the environmentalist space as Greens do not have a monopoly which Labour needs to exploit and it is Ed Miliband who is the one politician with his previous record who can counter this threat and out Green the Greens.The Green Investment Bank is Labour's creation .Why can't all government buildings be run on sun for a start?
My favourite No campaign tweet which I cannot seem to find is a picture of Salmond holding up a biscuit,presumably visiting somewhere.The No response was simply asking the question.Is this Salmond's new currency?
My favourite No campaign tweet which I cannot seem to find is a picture of Salmond holding up a biscuit,presumably visiting somewhere.The No response was simply asking the question.Is this Salmond's new currency?
The Greens are doing well and nibbling away at Labour's left flank.This left strategy vacates the environmentalist space as Greens do not have a monopoly which Labour needs to exploit and it is Ed Miliband who is the one politician with his previous record who can counter this threat and out Green the Greens.The Green Investment Bank is Labour's creation .Why can't all government buildings be run on sun for a start?
Because left of centre politicians have far too much BS to get rid off
I missed this, it was in the Indy On Sunday. If true, it's game over for the Yes campaign:
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
I missed this, it was in the Indy On Sunday. If true, it's game over for the Yes campaign:
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
I missed this, it was in the Indy On Sunday. If true, it's game over for the Yes campaign:
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
"Children as young as three have been registered to vote in a pro-independence area, raising concerns about the integrity of the election process in the Scottish referendum. Pro-union campaigners fear rules allowing 16 and 17-year-olds to vote are open to error or abuse as it emerged that in Dundee, a Yes stronghold, there were almost 10 per cent more 16 and 17-year-olds registered to vote than were living in the city."< /I>
I missed this, it was in the Indy On Sunday. If true, it's game over for the Yes campaign:
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
I missed this, it was in the Indy On Sunday. If true, it's game over for the Yes campaign:
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
I missed this, it was in the Indy On Sunday. If true, it's game over for the Yes campaign:
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
George Monbiot is a posh English southerner who rebelled against his parents because he thought it was cool. Does he really think that we care one iota what he thinks? In fact does he even know where Scotland is? I am so glad that the Yes campaign have people like him supporting them.
I am growing calmer every day. The polls are pretty good on some levels. I have not met a woman over 50 who plans to vote Yes. Middle aged, male and badly dressed is however a good indicator for a possible Yes. The No campaign sounded quietly confident on the radio today and they are taking the fight to the Yes heartlands.
Few important events left now. Will be interesting to see how many Rangers fans turn up tomorrow night at Ibrox.
If what you were telling us the other day is true and you've really been ending long-standing business contracts with people who said they were voting Yes, you may not be the best person to get people's genuine voting intentions in an ad-hoc opinion poll...
I have several people I know well who are voting Yes, I just don't give them contracts. Business is business. There are few bloggers on this site who do something as basic as work in manufacturing in Central Belt Scotland. It is 3am and I just got in from the site which works 24 hours a day after chatting with the night staff. As such I think I bring a slightly different perspective than other bloggers. To people on this site the referendum is an interesting topic of conversation. To my staff and I this is our salary and our future. This makes it very personal and something we do talk about.
I missed this, it was in the Indy On Sunday. If true, it's game over for the Yes campaign:
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
Comments
DavidL : "Right now if someone offered me 52:48 for no I would bite their hand off. I would not be surprised if it was even closer. The polling has shown Yes getting at least their share of don't knows to date and we are just hoping that as the day gets closer these slightly weird people get more cautious. I personally think it very unlikely yes will get less than 45%. Delighted, indeed delerious , but surprised."
You make it sound like I am advocating a 40% - 45% YES vote as being the PROBABLE outcome.
I most assuredly am not. What I am suggesting is that net odds of 11/4 against such an eventuality, which equates to a probability of 26.7% represents fair value in my opinion, nothing more, nothing less.
I was born in Sri Lanka, lived in a Sri Lanka and have family in Sri Lanka.
I may not be a fan of Cameron but we both share have the same opinion of the vile regime in Colombo. The UNHRC investigation that is currently underway will be very insightful to ignorant 'know it all' fools like you.
But if Yes wins and then Madrid exercises its veto and by implication promises the same for Catalonia, the people of Catalonia will, I expect, really hate such bullying and Madrid will more likely lose the referendum.
"push your fellow scots into poverty" - pure assumption based on nothing but group narcissism.
If you want a brief introduction into Scottish thinking on the subject, there is one place to start - an essay on the subject penned by one of our most important national writers: http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2012/03/31/the-self-determination-of-yes/
I really just expect another prejudiced reactionary rant rather than a good think to yourself but in the end it's your loss.
A while since you were in the vicinity of Castle Greyskull?
"push your fellow scots into poverty" - pure assumption based on nothing but group narcissism.
If you want a brief introduction into Scottish thinking on the subject, there is one place to start - an essay on the subject penned by one of our most important national writers: http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2012/03/31/the-self-determination-of-yes/
I really just expect another prejudiced reactionary rant rather than a good think to yourself but in the end it's your loss.
You demonstrate extremely prejudiced views in a rant (dismissing the views of anyone voting No as down to some kind of cultural cringe alone) and then criticise someone else for ranting in reply. Absurd.
Good night everyone, the following days will be bitter indeed when some on both sides not only demonise the other side, but treat them as though they cannot even think properly, that their views are not even valid for some reason. Even the leaders of both campaigns don't do that.
Vote NO, get Ed!
"push your fellow scots into poverty" - pure assumption based on nothing but group narcissism.
If you want a brief introduction into Scottish thinking on the subject, there is one place to start - an essay on the subject penned by one of our most important national writers: http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2012/03/31/the-self-determination-of-yes/
I really just expect another prejudiced reactionary rant rather than a good think to yourself but in the end it's your loss.
Hahahahah ok, very good. I'll admit I was completely taken in. It's actually scarily close to how some of them think though. Stylistically it could totally have come off that Godawful site.
Vote NO, get Ed!*
Vote YES, minimise the chances of Labour coming back in Scotland OR the rUK!
(* BTW this is based on "Vote UKIP, get Ed!")
;')
Tut tut. Naughty.
Labour leads in ELBOW:
Week ending 17th Aug: 3.0% (10 different polls)
24th Aug: 3.5% (7 polls)
31st Aug: 3.8% (9 polls)
7th Sep: 3.0% (8 polls)
14th Sep: 4.3% (11 polls - with data tables for ICM still to come)
Btw, you do realise when you open an atlas, Scotland will still be there?
The last time I was in Scotland was 30 years ago. Won't lose sleep over it.
The real truth of the matter is that the "United Kingdom" is a figment of the imagination, and always has been...
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/council_and_democracy/elections/middleton_and_heywood_election.aspx
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/scottish-independence-blog/2014/sep/15/scottish-independence-when-will-the-referendum-result-be-announced
If Canada says Yes 32 No 29,
and Quebec says Yes 44 No 24,
then that means that Canada-without-Quebec says Yes 28 No 31.
"The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against."
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scotland-independence-vote-we-will-win-says-darling-i-know-that-because-ive-seen-the-returns-9731656.html?origin=internalSearch
"Children as young as three have been registered to vote in a pro-independence area, raising concerns about the integrity of the election process in the Scottish referendum.
Pro-union campaigners fear rules allowing 16 and 17-year-olds to vote are open to error or abuse as it emerged that in Dundee, a Yes stronghold, there were almost 10 per cent more 16 and 17-year-olds registered to vote than were living in the city."< /I>
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11094592/Concern-as-child-aged-three-registered-to-vote-in-referendum.html