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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guardian ICM phone poll sees Labour lead cut from 7 to 2

The Greens are up to 7%, only 3% from being third in a Westminster VI poll! whilst the Lib Dems  are equalling their worst-ever performance over the last two decades. It maybe the Greens are receiving a boost, having just held their conference.

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CarlottaVance

First!

Scrapheap_as_was

Labour lead expands yet again.... Gordon Brown maths (0% growth)

CarlottaVance

63% of voters in England and Wales believe that the UK should “refuse to negotiate” over a common currency area if Scotland becomes independent, more than twice as many as the 27% who would favour such talks beginning. This makes for a total contrast with Scotland, where 62% believe that a currency union should be negotiated.”

So rUK is a lot clearer on no currency Union that Scotland is on independence then......excluding DK "currency union" splits 70:30 against,.,.

HYUFD

Carlotta As the rally today showed, we will love the Scots until Thursday when hopefully they will vote No and the marriage will continue. However, if it is Yes, that love will quickly turn to ruthlessness over the terms of what will be a bitter divorce in all likelihood!

Fenster

Gordon Brown back on telly. Labour ouch.

Crisis flashpoints across the globe and thought of Miliband in charge. Labour ouch.

Tony Blair would probably be about 30% ahead by now, despite Iraq.

But I don't think the polls matter till April.

FrancisUrquhart

The BBC really are like a broken record...something wrong with the UK, THHHHHHATCCHHHERRR's fault....apparently she is totally to blame if Scotland goes independent.

30 minutes of which 29 were spent blaming her in one way or another, and 1 minute of well Labour devolved power and maybe people quite liked that as a stepping stone to deciding their own future closer to home.

Oh and the laughable claim that Scotland is no more left wing than England...love to see the polling that is based upon.

Scrapheap_as_was

any idea what's happening on betfair in clacton, I've been spending a lot on there and suddenly it's all reversing nicely.... and not my money doing it this time!

RochdalePioneers

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

fitalass

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

peter_from_putney

Yay ...... a Technicolor bar chart to illustrate a half decent poll for the Tories!

Life_ina_market_town

RochdalePioneers said:

If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

The commitment is simply to produce a draft Bill by January 2015. It is not to pass it in the current session of Parliament, for obvious reasons.

RochdalePioneers

Life_ina_market_town said:

RochdalePioneers said:

If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

The commitment is simply to produce a draft Bill by January 2015. It is not to pass it in the current session of Parliament, for obvious reasons.

Of course it won't pass. But it will utterly dominate the political landscape.

JohnLilburne

To be fair, Opinium is a slightly older poll (before Friday's YouGov) so all the more recent polls have had leads of 0-4%.

Interesting to see ICM not picking up the recent UKIP increase. They have picked up to about 15% on average over the last week, whereas ICM did pick up their Euros surge in May/June.

DavidL

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved but the fact is that this will be the biggest political betting event in UK history (and, more prosaically, will have a massive effect on the politics of this country for a generation.) If we get a yes the rUK will be a different country, possibly with a different PM.

If it is no, especially after today, it seems likely that Cameron will get a boost.

Either way today's polls are going to look pretty quaint.

GIN1138

How good was Cameron's speech today?

If he could have that effective 98% of the time instead of only 2% of the time, he'd be one of the finest PM's ever.

Socrates

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

Sean_F

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved but the fact is that this will be the biggest political betting event in UK history (and, more prosaically, will have a massive effect on the politics of this country for a generation.) If we get a yes the rUK will be a different country, possibly with a different PM.

If it is no, especially after today, it seems likely that Cameron will get a boost.

Either way today's polls are going to look pretty quaint.

Yes, all meaningless until Friday morning. Do I wake up to find that my country has ceased to exist, or not?

HYUFD

LIAMT Indeed, but the moves towards a Federal Britain have begun. On that point Salmond has at least increased his powers regardless of the result, whether as PM of an independent Scotland or First Minister of a Scotland with a Parliament with significantly increased power

kle4

Swingback not likely? Well there's a lot of hopes and dreams dented.

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

A hugely partisan politician, like all those of his ilk who are to be found in every sort of party under the sun, lamenting the 'unconscious bias' which leads people to not realise they are biased? I know journalists are a different kettle of fish, but come on, does Salmond (or Darling, or whoever) not make any connection to accusing people of unforgivable bias to their favoured positions, and his(their) own instant dismissal of any 'facts' that don't support him(them).

DavidL

GIN1138 said:

How good was Cameron's speech today?

If he could have that effective 98% of the time instead of only 2% of the time, he'd be one of the finest PM's ever.

Cameron is always at his best when his back is to the wall. It is the tedium of every day detail that seems to bore him.

kle4

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

He might if it showed that people liked attacking the BBC.

Sean_F

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

SimonStClare

Blimey, another 7% swing with his Lordship’s poll – sampling laced with amphetamines..?

kle4

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

FrankBooth

I hadn't noticed the Green conference. 3% sounds low for them though. I would have thought 5//6/7 was about right.

A big question is possible Green/Ukip tactical voting in the marginals. I believe the last thing OGH posted on Ukip suggested their voters were equally split between Con or Lab.

Paul_Mid_Beds

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11097713/Alex-Salmond-in-second-BBC-bias-row.html

"But he asked if he would disassociate himself from intimidation of the BBC he replied that there was “real public concern in terms of some of the nature and balance of the coverage.
“You must allow people to express a view in a peaceful and joyous fashion. That is part of the democratic aspect of politics.”

Straight out of the Zanu-PF handbook that one. Has Salmond been having coaching lessons from Johnathan Moyo?

kle4

GIN1138 said:

How good was Cameron's speech today?

If he could have that effective 98% of the time instead of only 2% of the time, he'd be one of the finest PM's ever.

Not necessarily, as there is more to being a leader than giving a good speech as some have discovered. Don't get me wrong though, I thought he was really good.

SimonStClare

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved but the fact is that this will be the biggest political betting event in UK history (and, more prosaically, will have a massive effect on the politics of this country for a generation.) If we get a yes the rUK will be a different country, possibly with a different PM.

If it is no, especially after today, it seems likely that Cameron will get a boost.

Either way today's polls are going to look pretty quaint.

Yes, all meaningless until Friday morning. Do I wake up to find that my country has ceased to exist, or not?

Look on the bright side, in the event of a YES vote – the average UK rain fall would decrease and life expectancy would increase – better weather AND you get to enjoy it for longer. ; )

Paul_Mid_Beds

To be honest I am beginning to resent the fact that a group of people have been given the right to destroy my state without the rest of us having a vote on it.

Hopefullym, if Yes win, someone will mount a judicial review to prevent independence of Scotland without a referendum of all UK citizens agreeing.

Its also sort of nice to actually be on the same side as the establishment for once.

NickPalmer

Sweden update: looks very much like a Social Democrat/Green minority government, with support from wary centrists and communists from issue to issue. The Social Democrats are focusing on wooing the centre parties and will not include the communists in the national government.

Quite a few - mostly admiring - international comments on the fact that the Swedish Conservatives preferred to give up power rather than stay with the support of the Kipperish Sweden Democrats (who are regarded with greater suspicion than UKIP because of neo-Nazi roots, even though they've tried to shake them off).

DavidL

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

bigjohnowls

Todays ICM LAB 331 CON 269 LD 23 (UKPR)

EICIPM

kle4

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

kle4

bigjohnowls said:

Todays ICM LAB 331 CON 269 LD 23 (UKPR)

EICIPM

So long as it is EICIPMUK

bigjohnowls

Todays Populus LAB 327 CON 277 LD 19 (UKPR)

EICIPM

fitalass

Shetland News - Opinion: Wake up from this independence fairy tale

JonnyJimmy

bigjohnowls said:

Todays ICM LAB 331 CON 269 LD 23 (UKPR)

EICIPM

EICIPMIHCSMTABOTVSBNAM

(Ed is crap is PM if he can somehow manage to avoid being on TV screens between now and May)

bigjohnowls

Todays LA LAB 319 CON 279 LD 24

EICIPM

Sean_F

NickPalmer said:

Sweden update: looks very much like a Social Democrat/Green minority government, with support from wary centrists and communists from issue to issue. The Social Democrats are focusing on wooing the centre parties and will not include the communists in the national government.

Quite a few - mostly admiring - international comments on the fact that the Swedish Conservatives preferred to give up power rather than stay with the support of the Kipperish Sweden Democrats (who are regarded with greater suspicion than UKIP because of neo-Nazi roots, even though they've tried to shake them off).

I think the Swedish Conservative are twits, as the CDU are twits to refuse to go into coalition with AFD. Cutting off your nose to spite your face is never a good idea.

Yorkcity

DavidL

"If it is no, especially after today, it seems likely that Cameron will get a boost."

I agree, I also think he will then go on and get a second term as PM, winning another referendum, this time keeping Britain in the EU.

TheScreamingEagles

So Mike tweets this (which Adam Boulton retweets)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1h

Getting lost in all the IndyRef news - this week's @LordAshcroft poll has
CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

And then someone replies with

Mark Beveridge ‏@markbev73 3m

@MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft so fucking what you English deluded fucks

AllyM

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

I can appreciate that. My Wife is constantly worried and I'm off my food half the time. And a gent of my size does not turn food down.

But, with the possibility of losing something I love, I feel extremely nauseous.

Lennon

O/T but apparantly Liz McInnes has been selected as Labour candidate for Heywood

Paul_Mid_Beds

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Mike tweets this (which Adam Boulton retweets)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1h

Getting lost in all the IndyRef news - this week's @LordAshcroft poll has
CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

And then someone replies with

Mark Beveridge ‏@markbev73 3m

@MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft so fucking what you English deluded fucks

Didn't realise Malcolm was on twitter as well :-)

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Mike tweets this (which Adam Boulton retweets)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1h

Getting lost in all the IndyRef news - this week's @LordAshcroft poll has
CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

And then someone replies with

Mark Beveridge ‏@markbev73 3m

@MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft so fucking what you English deluded fucks

One of the football forums has coined the term "mongo tsunami" to describe what the Indy ref has unleashed in Scotland.

I can't disagree.

AllyM

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Aye. He comes across as angry and irritated increasingly. Whatever the reason, He's nowhere near as jovial as a couple weeks back.

bigjohnowls

Congratulations to local NHS worker @LizMcInnes selected for Labour in Heywood & Middleton by-election.

Richard_Tyndall

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Some of us are feeling it down here, too. Indeed lots of us.

My daughter's mother - half-Scottish - pro-Union - says she can't sleep at night for worry. And she is generally apolitical, vaguely Blairite.

It should never have been allowed to reach this stage, and I am afraid Cameron must carry some of the blame. Even if he is, now, clearly doing his best to rectify his mistakes.

The idea of my country breaking up chills me, and fills me with dread. It will be, without question, the greatest political tragedy of my life, should it happen. And the bitter truth is that I do not believe most Scots want this (even if they vote YES), they want Devomax.

*sigh*

And interestingly, if they were given a clear explanation of what the suggested Devomax proposals are and how they would favour the Scots hugely, I suspect most English would rather have Scots Independence.

What has been lost in this whole debate (for understandable reasons at the moment) is the resentment that will grow in England against Scotland should they remain within the Union and be granted all these extra powers without a serious shift with regard to the WLQ.

fitalass

@DavidL, well said! This is getting incredible stressful for a lot of Scots as the Referendum draws near, and I cannot stress enough just how divisive the whole debate has now become among families and friends across Scotland.

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

AndreaParma_82

Liz McInness has won Labour Heywood and Middleton selection

Theuniondivvie

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Mike tweets this (which Adam Boulton retweets)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1h

Getting lost in all the IndyRef news - this week's @LordAshcroft poll has
CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

And then someone replies with

Mark Beveridge ‏@markbev73 3m

@MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft so fucking what you English deluded fucks

One of the football forums has coined the term "mongo tsunami" to describe what the Indy ref has unleashed in Scotland.

Bit harsh on the Union Jack tattooed chaps screaming 'Naw' at us from their car windows today. But fair.

FrankBooth

Yorkcity said:

DavidL

"If it is no, especially after today, it seems likely that Cameron will get a boost."

I agree, I also think he will then go on and get a second term as PM, winning another referendum, this time keeping Britain in the EU.

That's the one thing that worries me. A strong NO vote that might be abut nothing more than pollsters getting it wrong could be spun as Cameron like Lazarus rises from the dead. I doubt it but no question he'd want to take the glory.

david_herdson

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

You sometimes behave like that if you're knackered.

Scrapheap_as_was

bigjohnowls said:

Congratulations to local NHS worker @LizMcInnes selected for Labour in Heywood & Middleton by-election.

Take your pick...

Greg Hands‏@GregHands·1 min
Labourites anxiously tweet their new candidate in Heywood is "a healthcare scientist" or even "local NHS worker". She's a Unite union rep!

kle4

Richard_Tyndall said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Some of us are feeling it down here, too. Indeed lots of us.

My daughter's mother - half-Scottish - pro-Union - says she can't sleep at night for worry. And she is generally apolitical, vaguely Blairite.

It should never have been allowed to reach this stage, and I am afraid Cameron must carry some of the blame. Even if he is, now, clearly doing his best to rectify his mistakes.

The idea of my country breaking up chills me, and fills me with dread. It will be, without question, the greatest political tragedy of my life, should it happen. And the bitter truth is that I do not believe most Scots want this (even if they vote YES), they want Devomax.

*sigh*

And interestingly, if they were given a clear explanation of what the suggested Devomax proposals are and how they would favour the Scots hugely, I suspect most English would rather have Scots Independence.

What has been lost in this whole debate (for understandable reasons at the moment) is the resentment that will grow in England against Scotland should they remain within the Union and be granted all these extra powers without a serious shift with regard to the WLQ.

It strikes me to be a very British solution to cobble something together, with problems down the line, in the belief that somehow we'll sort it out later but for now it'll have to do. I hope so, since the issue is not going to go away.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Some of us are feeling it down here, too. Indeed lots of us.

My daughter's mother - half-Scottish - pro-Union - says she can't sleep at night for worry. And she is generally apolitical, vaguely Blairite.

It should never have been allowed to reach this stage, and I am afraid Cameron must carry some of the blame. Even if he is, now, clearly doing his best to rectify his mistakes.

The idea of my country breaking up chills me, and fills me with dread. It will be, without question, the greatest political tragedy of my life, should it happen. And the bitter truth is that I do not believe most Scots want this (even if they vote YES), they want Devomax.

*sigh*

And interestingly, if they were given a clear explanation of what the suggested Devomax proposals are and how they would favour the Scots hugely, I suspect most English would rather have Scots Independence.

What has been lost in this whole debate (for understandable reasons at the moment) is the resentment that will grow in England against Scotland should they remain within the Union and be granted all these extra powers without a serious shift with regard to the WLQ.

Indeed, even I an ardent Unionist, am coming to the conclusion, that without equivalent powers to an English Parliament or EV4EL, then the Union will become untenable, and it might be better if Scotland votes Yes.

MonikerDiCanio

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11097713/Alex-Salmond-in-second-BBC-bias-row.html

"But he asked if he would disassociate himself from intimidation of the BBC he replied that there was “real public concern in terms of some of the nature and balance of the coverage.
“You must allow people to express a view in a peaceful and joyous fashion. That is part of the democratic aspect of politics.”

Straight out of the Zanu-PF handbook that one. Has Salmond been having coaching lessons from Johnathan Moyo?

Everyday he sounds more and more like a crazed cult leader. "Joyous".

AllyM

SeanT said:

AllyM said:

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Aye. He comes across as angry and irritated increasingly. Whatever the reason, He's nowhere near as jovial as a couple weeks back.

Er, he could just be tired. He's 59, and this is the climactic moment of his entire life, which could also change world history.

I'd forgive anyone for being a bit stressy.

Without using a 'Mafia' cliche, I have very little sympathy for a high ranking politician straining under tiredness.

It's the life they have chosen.

Mr. Salmond especially, chose this.

kle4

Theuniondivvie said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Mike tweets this (which Adam Boulton retweets)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1h

Getting lost in all the IndyRef news - this week's @LordAshcroft poll has
CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

And then someone replies with

Mark Beveridge ‏@markbev73 3m

@MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft so fucking what you English deluded fucks

One of the football forums has coined the term "mongo tsunami" to describe what the Indy ref has unleashed in Scotland.

Bit harsh on the Union Jack tattooed chaps screaming 'Naw' at us from their car windows today. But fair.

I haven't frequented the forum where such a term was coined, but that the IndyRef has unleashed such a tsunami does not necessarily have to refer to only one side, whatever the intention.

Yorkcity

SeanT said:

AllyM said:

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Aye. He comes across as angry and irritated increasingly. Whatever the reason, He's nowhere near as jovial as a couple weeks back.

Er, he could just be tired. He's 59, and this is the climactic moment of his entire life, which could also change world history.

I'd forgive anyone for being a bit stressy.

I watched him on ch 4 news been interviewed by Jon Snow he seemed fine even when told that his teachers daughter said he had divided Scotland.

Scotland has always been divided .

TheScreamingEagles

AllyM said:

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Aye. He comes across as angry and irritated increasingly. Whatever the reason, He's nowhere near as jovial as a couple weeks back.

It might be he knows he's about to win, and he can't deliver the pile of pish that he promised, such as a currency union, defaulting on Scotland's debts and automaticity when it comes to Scotland's membership of the EU.

JonnyJimmy

@SeanT "vaguely Blairite"? Isn't that a tautology?

Duderooster

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Some of us are feeling it down here, too. Indeed lots of us.

My daughter's mother - half-Scottish - pro-Union - says she can't sleep at night for worry. And she is generally apolitical, vaguely Blairite.

It should never have been allowed to reach this stage, and I am afraid Cameron must carry some of the blame. Even if he is, now, clearly doing his best to rectify his mistakes.

The idea of my country breaking up chills me, and fills me with dread. It will be, without question, the greatest political tragedy of my life, should it happen. And the bitter truth is that I do not believe most Scots want this (even if they vote YES), they want Devomax.

*sigh*

My daughter lives in Scotland - if the country splits up I can't envisage me making my way up to the Black Isle for some time because of the bitterness I will feel against the Scots who split my country in half. The situation is more perilous than that of the early days of the Second World War and although I passionately believe in free speech, I want journalists in this country to be on my side and affronted by having to witness the lunatics attempting to take over the looney bin. If they loved their country then they coudn't sit on the fence. How can they do so now?

AllyM

TheScreamingEagles said:

AllyM said:

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Sean_F said:

Socrates said:

fitalass said:

Daily Telegraph - Alex Salmond in second BBC bias row
'The First Minister clashes with Newsnight presenter and accuses her of supporting the Better Together campaign'

He wouldn't be picking all these fights if internal polls showed him ahead.

No. You don't behave like that, if you're confident.

Aye. He comes across as angry and irritated increasingly. Whatever the reason, He's nowhere near as jovial as a couple weeks back.

It might be he knows he's about to win, and he can't deliver the pile of pish that he promised, such as a currency union, defaulting on Scotland's debts and automaticity when it comes to Scotland's membership of the EU.

Yeh, that too. I hadn't thought in depth as too the reason.

Perfectly plausible!

saddened

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Some of us are feeling it down here, too. Indeed lots of us.

My daughter's mother - half-Scottish - pro-Union - says she can't sleep at night for worry. And she is generally apolitical, vaguely Blairite.

It should never have been allowed to reach this stage, and I am afraid Cameron must carry some of the blame. Even if he is, now, clearly doing his best to rectify his mistakes.

The idea of my country breaking up chills me, and fills me with dread. It will be, without question, the greatest political tragedy of my life, should it happen. And the bitter truth is that I do not believe most Scots want this (even if they vote YES), they want Devomax.

*sigh*

I'm Scottish lived in England virtually my whole life and genuinely don't care which way the vote goes. What I do care about is the response to either outcome from the government.

If it's yes Scotland becomes a competitor and all bets are off.

If it's no EVEL must be addressed and quickly.

Flightpath

FPT volcanopete says --
''Ed Milibands's message is more nuanced,devolution is for all of us in the UK.''

But all the UK needs to discuss that. It should not be farmed out ad hoc on the hoof. And why should a desire for scottish independence - an ill thought out desire - end up with our entire constitution been thrown up in the air when clearly there are better things to do.

And why should England and not also Scotland be broken up? Thats assuming that we do not have one enormous English Parliament which would really disjoint everything.
The best bet is either EVEL or simply half the number of Scottish MPs to limit their unfair influence.

Lennon

Scrapheap_as_was said:

bigjohnowls said:

Congratulations to local NHS worker @LizMcInnes selected for Labour in Heywood & Middleton by-election.

Take your pick...

Greg Hands‏@GregHands·1 min
Labourites anxiously tweet their new candidate in Heywood is "a healthcare scientist" or even "local NHS worker". She's a Unite union rep!

She's also a Labour councillor for Rossendale (close-ish, but not exactly local)

AndyJS

I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

For instance, I have the Glasgow result coming through at 8am rather than the expected 5am because I think it'll be a very close-run thing.

This is the PA list of expected declaration times:

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/scotland_ref_2014_by_time.php

This isn't necessarily my final prediction of the result.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Flightpath said:

FPT volcanopete says --
''Ed Milibands's message is more nuanced,devolution is for all of us in the UK.''

But all the UK needs to discuss that. It should not be farmed out ad hoc on the hoof. And why should a desire for scottish independence - an ill thought out desire - end up with our entire constitution been thrown up in the air when clearly there are better things to do.

And why should England and not also Scotland be broken up? Thats assuming that we do not have one enormous English Parliament which would really disjoint everything.
The best bet is either EVEL or simply half the number of Scottish MPs to limit their unfair influence.

If they have the same internal government powers as the Isle of Man, Jersey and Guernsey, under Devo Max, why should they have ANY MPs?

DavidL

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

Sleep?? Sleep?

Are you having a laugh?

AllyM

AndyJS said:

I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

Cracking spreadsheet.

Yorkcity

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Some of us are feeling it down here, too. Indeed lots of us.

My daughter's mother - half-Scottish - pro-Union - says she can't sleep at night for worry. And she is generally apolitical, vaguely Blairite.

It should never have been allowed to reach this stage, and I am afraid Cameron must carry some of the blame. Even if he is, now, clearly doing his best to rectify his mistakes.

The idea of my country breaking up chills me, and fills me with dread. It will be, without question, the greatest political tragedy of my life, should it happen. And the bitter truth is that I do not believe most Scots want this (even if they vote YES), they want Devomax.

*sigh*

And interestingly, if they were given a clear explanation of what the suggested Devomax proposals are and how they would favour the Scots hugely, I suspect most English would rather have Scots Independence.

What has been lost in this whole debate (for understandable reasons at the moment) is the resentment that will grow in England against Scotland should they remain within the Union and be granted all these extra powers without a serious shift with regard to the WLQ.

Indeed, even I an ardent Unionist, am coming to the conclusion, that without equivalent powers to an English Parliament or EV4EL, then the Union will become untenable, and it might be better if Scotland votes Yes.

At last you have thought it through.

About time the English stood up for themselves and demanded a parliament.

manofkent2014

The way the polls are bouncing around I think we need to start questioning whether the methodologies used are adequate in dealing with four or perhaps five party politics. I'm starting to think its not just the Scottish referendum polling that will be compared to 1992.

Its less a case now of choosing the poll which suits your preferences as disregarding polling as a whole because increasingly there is just no consistency in what they are telling you.

TheScreamingEagles

Sun Politics @Sun_Politics

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

hucks67

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by four points: CON 31%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

Pulpstar

Oh God

Has Clegg been signing more 'pledges' ?

__Bobajob__

The Tory surge continues
31% (-1)

kle4

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

Sleep?? Sleep?

Are you having a laugh?

It may be more of a dazed, exhausted stupour, although in all honesty it is probably wishful thinking on my part.

TheScreamingEagles

__Bobajob__ said:

The Tory surge continues
31% (-1)

Single data point misuse there.

alex

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Some of us are feeling it down here, too. Indeed lots of us.

My daughter's mother - half-Scottish - pro-Union - says she can't sleep at night for worry. And she is generally apolitical, vaguely Blairite.

It should never have been allowed to reach this stage, and I am afraid Cameron must carry some of the blame. Even if he is, now, clearly doing his best to rectify his mistakes.

The idea of my country breaking up chills me, and fills me with dread. It will be, without question, the greatest political tragedy of my life, should it happen. And the bitter truth is that I do not believe most Scots want this (even if they vote YES), they want Devomax.

*sigh*

And interestingly, if they were given a clear explanation of what the suggested Devomax proposals are and how they would favour the Scots hugely, I suspect most English would rather have Scots Independence.

What has been lost in this whole debate (for understandable reasons at the moment) is the resentment that will grow in England against Scotland should they remain within the Union and be granted all these extra powers without a serious shift with regard to the WLQ.

Indeed, even I an ardent Unionist, am coming to the conclusion, that without equivalent powers to an English Parliament or EV4EL, then the Union will become untenable, and it might be better if Scotland votes Yes.

I genuinely don't think "the English" care that much, and attempts to make them care are ultimately just rabble rousing by politicians (however theoretically logical their arguments). The English just want to be governed and don't like to be bothered with it (beyond getting asked if they are OK with the Government once every 4-5 years). They don't like political turmoil (which is why they don't particularly appreciate what is going on in Scotland) and aren't that fussed by EV4EL if it won't work (which it won't very well). What they certainly, IMO, don't want is any "solution" which involves increasing numbers of politicians (be it English Parliament, regional devolution etc). The English also know that at the end of the day in any Westminster Parliamentary battle which is genuinely England vs Scotland/Wales, they always have the votes to win.

__Bobajob__

TheScreamingEagles said:

__Bobajob__ said:

The Tory surge continues
31% (-1)

Single data point misuse there.

Irony alert.

hucks67

When will the Lib Dems polling recover to average 10% + ?

Flightpath

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So Mike tweets this (which Adam Boulton retweets)

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1h

Getting lost in all the IndyRef news - this week's @LordAshcroft poll has
CON 33%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

And then someone replies with

Mark Beveridge ‏@markbev73 3m

@MSmithsonPB @adamboultonSKY @LordAshcroft so fucking what you English deluded fucks

One of the football forums has coined the term "mongo tsunami" to describe what the Indy ref has unleashed in Scotland.

I can't disagree.

Such crassness is everywhere and the English are not excluded I'm afraid to say. They just have different targets (although the Scots come into the frame). The web of course encourages it because all the dingbats can froth away to each other. It is not the job of govt or political parties - even silly right wing ones to pander to such notions.

OblitusSumMe

manofkent2014 said:

The way the polls are bouncing around I think we need to start questioning whether the methodologies used are adequate in dealing with four or perhaps five party politics. I'm starting to think its not just the Scottish referendum polling that will be compared to 1992.

Its less a case now of choosing the poll which suits your preferences as disregarding polling as a whole because increasingly there is just no consistency in what they are telling you.

Because we have way more polls than we used to we will have way more outliers and we will have way more examples of statistical noise with no obvious driver for changes in opinion to pretend caused the random change in measured party support.

Even if you had a perfect opinion poll you would expect a large degree of variation from poll to poll - even when the underlying public support is static - which it might not be.

FrankBooth

The Lib Dem decline continues. How low do they have to go before something snaps?

Scrapheap_as_was

I think OGH is a bit hurt.... after the scottish nutter's reply.

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·2 mins
If anybody's interested tonight's YouGov/Sun poll
CON 31
LAB 35
LD 7
UKIP 15

Incidentally, I wonder if Mike might not be the one.

@markbev73
Ex Golf Pro who's now seen the light in regards to inequality and corruption in the world. If I can help one person I will have succeeded.

bigjohnowls

Tonights YG LAB 346 CON 255 LD 21

Ed is Crap is PM

AndreaParma_82

Liz McInnes

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmffNkIgAAT4af.jpg:large

twitter.com/LabourNorthWest/status/511615417186795521/photo/1

Scrapheap_as_was

__Bobajob__ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

__Bobajob__ said:

The Tory surge continues
31% (-1)

Single data point misuse there.

Irony alert.

Touchy?

OblitusSumMe

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

Sleep?? Sleep?

Are you having a laugh?

At least with a GE you know one of the Sunderland seats is going to rush to bring us a result asap. I don't think I can wait up for the first results to come in at around 2am.

I'll try to go to sleep and see if I can hear the result when the radio comes on at 6.30.

Casino_Royale

I was at the unity rally in Trafalgar Square tonight. The atmosphere and speeches were fantastic. Very passionate and very moving - all heart and love for the UK. A guy even turned up with the bagpipes playing 'p flower of Scotland'. He was cheered. Dan Snow and Geldof were excellent.

I missed SeanT but, I'm afraid, for my sins did end up in a local boozer where I've spent the last 3 hours.

One final point: as I walked home across the millennium footbridge at Waterloo bridge, draped in my union flag, a freelance caricaturist called out, "Better together mate. Let's stay together!"

I said, 'I hope so mate. I hope so.'

Lennon

AllyM said:

AndyJS said:

I've done a predicted timeline for Thursday night, using the PA expected declaration times, but I've altered some of them where I think the result will be close and therefore delayed. It includes running totals:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/edit#gid=0

Cracking spreadsheet.

Quite agree - thanks so much for this Andy.

AndreaParma_82

McInnes was the candidate favoured by the Dunczaks after their other favourites were eliminated at shortlisting stage.

TheScreamingEagles

Christopher Hope ‏@christopherhope 1m

Alex Salmond was once a tipster. If you placed £100 each on 130 tips over 3 years you would be 22 per cent down:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11098205/Alex-Salmonds-racing-tips-would-have-cost-punters-3000.html … …

__Bobajob__

Scrapheap_as_was said:

__Bobajob__ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

__Bobajob__ said:

The Tory surge continues
31% (-1)

Single data point misuse there.

Irony alert.

Touchy?

Not at all. Merely poking fun at the silliness witnessed on the earlier thread.

AllyM

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

Sleep?? Sleep?

Are you having a laugh?

I've taken Friday off for that reason.

Added to that, I may also find the need to lick my wounds.

TheScreamingEagles

AllyM said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Labour lead, Tory lead - WHO CARES. Scotland votes on Thursday. If it's a Yes I'd be amazed if the government in its current form survives til May. If it's a no, we still have a hurried massive constitutional change before parliament prorogues. Polls based on now are as relevant to the election as polls that exclude Ukip

Agreed.
I can completely understand why Scotland gets a bit boring thread after thread for those not directly involved

Hell, even if they are. Probably why an interesting discussing of definitions of christianity broke out yesterday evening.

As I say I can understand that. But this is making me and several other members of my family almost physically ill. The stress of potentially losing my country is not something I ever dreamed I might have to endure. It is incredibly hard to think about anything else at any waking moment.

Oh I'm with you on that - Thursday night will be a tough one to sleep through, and one can only hope nothing vital pops up at work on the Friday, as I very much doubt I will be in the right frame of mind, in the event of a Yes vote.

Sleep?? Sleep?

Are you having a laugh?

I've taken Friday off for that reason.

Added to that, I may also find the need to pick my wounds.

I've taken Thursday and Friday off.

FrankBooth

SeanT - So people should lie about what they think of the state of the Union is in order to keep Scotland in? Basically shoot the messenger rather than the people who have so ****** off the Scots. Funny way to look at it. What are you saying, that the Scots would be perfectly well enamoured of the Tories, it's just these blasted left-wing propagandists who are convincing them the Tories aren't great. Come off it.

manofkent2014

OblitusSumMe said:

manofkent2014 said:

The way the polls are bouncing around I think we need to start questioning whether the methodologies used are adequate in dealing with four or perhaps five party politics. I'm starting to think its not just the Scottish referendum polling that will be compared to 1992.

Its less a case now of choosing the poll which suits your preferences as disregarding polling as a whole because increasingly there is just no consistency in what they are telling you.

Because we have way more polls than we used to we will have way more outliers and we will have way more examples of statistical noise with no obvious driver for changes in opinion to pretend caused the random change in measured party support.

Even if you had a perfect opinion poll you would expect a large degree of variation from poll to poll - even when the underlying public support is static - which it might not be.

None of which helps you decipher whats actually going on. Whether it should be expected or not there comes a point where just like a radio station if the background noise is loud enough and persistent enough you stop listening to it.

If the levels of statistical noise are too great and too persistent and totally random then the methodology is not up to the job (it should filter the noise to a greater extent) and the polling becomes irrelevant !

Speedy

Looking at the changes I have to declare this ICM poll a rogue one, on the basis that in no way have the Greens more than doubled their share in one month on the back of the scottish referendum (apart from ISIS and Clacton, the only political news of the past month).
The referendum doesn't suddently make us any more environment friendly.