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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks as though we’ll get an IndyRef poll from the firm

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Smarmeron said:

    @Carnyx
    For a given definition of Scottish?

    Through Jamie the Saxt for one thing. (James I and VI to those south of Carter Bar.) So the Scottish bit comes before the English bit, if you are that way inclined to think.

    Though I think the DT or someone was telling me this morning how terribly Scottish QE2 herself is. Scottish mother and some unknown fraction in her father. No doubt that nice Mr Witchell on the BBC would know.

    None of which is very important in itself, admittedly.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    MikeK said:

    LBC ‏@LBC 6h
    Farage: Scots aren't voting for independence but to become province in United States of Europe http://l-bc.co/HhzVAK

    ......." no one's made this point. Salmond is not offering the Scots independence. He's offering them to be a province of a United States of Europe. He will have to sign up to the Euro. He will have to keep open uncontrolled immigration.

    Not true, a lot of people have - I did yesterday. The question is whether Scotland wants its economic policy dictated by a) London or b) Frankfurt. Both are perfectly credible situations which would work. I don't know how Scotland might do out of EU membership in terms of finances. You are of course correct about the other aspects of EU membership.

    The problem than becomes, in the unlikely event of the remainder of the UK leaving the European Union what will then happen to those Scots resident and working in the aforementioned.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    "Would 'everyone' be expected to maintain the land too?"
    Yes, it is the point of the soon to be introduced "abandoned land" act. Scotland only I believe, the rest of the country can carry on subsidising playgrounds for the rich as is their right in a democratic society.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    tessyC said:

    Devolution as we have it now is not really devolution of power closer to people, but rather centralisation of power somewhere different. This has always been the strategic error of devolving power to the nations of the UK, they have become increasingly centralised units, sucking powers from local and national government alike. I understand the agitation for a English Parliament, its fair and as we have the system as it is England needs a voice. It will however not make England a better governed place, the same politicians will make the same decisions and those decisions will be made no closer to the people than they are now. All we are left with is an additional layer of government, looking for reasons to justify their positions and increasingly meddling in our lives.

    You are very wrong

    1) An English Parliament would not include the likes of Gordon brown, Danny Alexander, Dougie Alexander etc etc. So not the same old politicians.

    2) An English Parliament would not suffer the same electoral imbalance which virtually precludes Conservatives from winning a majority. The English 'Government' would be the choice of England and not altered by the choices of predominantly Labour Scotland and Wales.

    It will also allow the English people to counterbalance the excesses of Westminster by being powerful enough to constrain Downing Street.

    3) An English Parliament would not need to consider the best interest of the other home nations and therefore could prioritise purely based on the needs of England

    4) If subsidiarity were properly used to restructure the political system then there will be little or no room for power grabbing between layers

    5) By locating an English Parliament outside London it would go along way over time in reversing the polarisation of society around London.

    6) If such devolution is so pointless why is it the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish aren't pleading for it to be reversed?

    7) It celebrates the English Identity and unifies the English people
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Something I have been meaning to do for a while. I have published some stats on our likely post-independence unemployment rate. I reckon 20%</, up from 6% now and the worst it's been since the 1930's.

    It's here in gory detail, if anyone is interested:
    http://scotlandeconomy.wordpress.com/

    If we vote Yes <b>other Scots will pay for it with their jobs. At least we should go into this with our eyes open.

    You you factored in the millions of emigrants fleeing Scotland after the horrors of the 'yes' vote?

    That's a good point. The headline figure would come down due to otherwise unemployed Scots moving south. I would expect there to be a much greater mobility than in Finland, which I referred to in my blog.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Nice.

    Angry Salmond @AngrySalmond · 1m

    Promoting #BetterTogether with separate leaders in separate parties in separate locations with one calling another a "hindrance". LOL.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @JosiasJessop
    The way most people gain insight, I listen to what people say, rather than tell them what they should be saying.
    It's a useful trick to learn.

    I agree, and it's something I've tried to do all my life.

    Are you sure you've been doing it to a wide range of people?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    The day after a YES vote, Scotland with a land area of a third of mainland Britain will still have half of it's land owned by less that 500 people.
    Maybe if I vote yes, it might be possible to change that?
    "Yes" is looking more and more tempting every time I read PeeBee....you lot really have no idea how most people in the country you profess to love, live.

    Half the land by area, or by value?

    If the former, it doesn't mean very much, as many huge estates in the Highlands are worth very little per acre.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Live coverage of ukip rotherham asking labour councillors to put themselves up for re election

    http://www.rotherham.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/146763
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Eck has been going on all morning about Team Scotland (boak)

    @blairmcdougall: After Bertie Auld's comment earlier here's a Team Scotland medalist's view on Salmond's offensive nonsense #indyref http://t.co/f0uGXn4A5y

    The aggressive Cybernats were all over her on Twitter after her interview yesterday
  • Patrick said:

    Wouldn't it be just fabulous if a Labour Education Secretary announced his plan to return all schools to LEA control and a deepening of dumbing down and a majority of English MPs could say: Err...no yer not.

    If all schools were returned to LEA control, then the elected LEA reps could say no. Governments like centralising power, even when they claim otherwise. That is why people used to complain that the largest LEA in the country was Michael Gove's desk.
    Psst, The results being achieved by LEA primary schools are so fecking awful (see the figures I quoted on here the day before yesterday) that frankly anyone speaking-up for LEAs should be charged with child cruelty.
    Politicians have long been relaxed about illiteracy. The armed forces used to complain about it during conscription more than 50 years ago. The only Secretary of State to have specifically addressed reading was David Blunkett: synthetic phonics and the reading hour. The real problem is there is not enough research into teaching and what little there has been is usually not communicated to those at the chalk face. Michael Gove talked encouragingly and approvingly of research findings but it was just talk, and instead he chose to squander time, money and, we must remember, the support of teachers on irrelevancies like Free Schools and Of Mice And Men.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Carnyx
    Our royals and landed gentry have an interesting provenance, and as you say, it is unimportant. Any true picto/celt can tell you that you own the land on which you stand, and everything else is a mere "loan".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    Anorak said:

    Nice.

    Angry Salmond @AngrySalmond · 1m

    Promoting #BetterTogether with separate leaders in separate parties in separate locations with one calling another a "hindrance". LOL.

    Er, isn't that a parody account?

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    "Would 'everyone' be expected to maintain the land too?"
    Yes, it is the point of the soon to be introduced "abandoned land" act. Scotland only I believe, the rest of the country can carry on subsidising playgrounds for the rich as is their right in a democratic society.

    Hmm. Which will be the priority when cash is short - healthcare or land management?

    'Come to Scotland, and see rivers full of tyres and overgrown moorland'

    Many of those fields look pretty because wealthy toffs are daft enough to pay fortunes to shoot birdies with their rich chums. The land isn't much good for anything else. Take them out of the equation and it's pretty obvious what the outcome will be.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    "Would 'everyone' be expected to maintain the land too?"
    Yes, it is the point of the soon to be introduced "abandoned land" act. Scotland only I believe, the rest of the country can carry on subsidising playgrounds for the rich as is their right in a democratic society.

    You think Scots really want to go back to the land?

  • Smarmeron said:

    @Anorak
    That's an interesting question that I have discussed with a few owners and gamekeepers.
    No camping signs make great kindling for your evening camp fire BTW, and a good one can supply almost entirely the wood needed for the basic meal if you are careful.

    You are just the sort of wild camper that gives the rest of us a bad name.

    "Leave only footprints, take only memories."
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    FF42 said:

    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Something I have been meaning to do for a while. I have published some stats on our likely post-independence unemployment rate. I reckon 20%</, up from 6% now and the worst it's been since the 1930's.

    It's here in gory detail, if anyone is interested:
    http://scotlandeconomy.wordpress.com/

    If we vote Yes <b>other Scots will pay for it with their jobs. At least we should go into this with our eyes open.

    You you factored in the millions of emigrants fleeing Scotland after the horrors of the 'yes' vote?

    That's a good point. The headline figure would come down due to otherwise unemployed Scots moving south. I would expect there to be a much greater mobility than in Finland, which I referred to in my blog.

    I'm beginning to worry about the quality of your estimates.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Smarmeron said:

    @Carnyx
    Our royals and landed gentry have an interesting provenance, and as you say, it is unimportant. Any true picto/celt can tell you that you own the land on which you stand, and everything else is a mere "loan".

    The gamekeeper has a persuasive, 12-gauge counter-argument.
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Something I have been meaning to do for a while. I have published some stats on our likely post-independence unemployment rate. I reckon 20%</, up from 6% now and the worst it's been since the 1930's.

    It's here in gory detail, if anyone is interested:
    http://scotlandeconomy.wordpress.com/

    If we vote Yes <b>other Scots will pay for it with their jobs. At least we should go into this with our eyes open.

    You you factored in the millions of emigrants fleeing Scotland after the horrors of the 'yes' vote?

    That's a good point. The headline figure would come down due to otherwise unemployed Scots moving south. I would expect there to be a much greater mobility than in Finland, which I referred to in my blog.

    I'm beginning to worry about the quality of your estimates.

    Go on ...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sean_F
    I certainly wouldn't mind, A couple of acres of the most scrubby land in Scotland could supply a decent living and a small profit if you use your imagination.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Carnyx said:

    Anorak said:

    Nice.

    Angry Salmond @AngrySalmond · 1m

    Promoting #BetterTogether with separate leaders in separate parties in separate locations with one calling another a "hindrance". LOL.

    Er, isn't that a parody account?

    Oh yes, but firmly YES and very funny.

    Angry Salmond @AngrySalmond · Sep 9

    I really must insist the #RoyalBaby has nothing to do with the independence referendum. ...Unless it turns out to be mine. #SexySocialism
  • Robin Brant ‏@robindbrant 1m

    PMOS confirms cameron due back in scotland for indy ref campaign on monday.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited September 2014
    FF42 said:

    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Something I have been meaning to do for a while. I have published some stats on our likely post-independence unemployment rate. I reckon 20%</, up from 6% now and the worst it's been since the 1930's.

    It's here in gory detail, if anyone is interested:
    http://scotlandeconomy.wordpress.com/

    If we vote Yes <b>other Scots will pay for it with their jobs. At least we should go into this with our eyes open.

    You you factored in the millions of emigrants fleeing Scotland after the horrors of the 'yes' vote?

    That's a good point. The headline figure would come down due to otherwise unemployed Scots moving south. I would expect there to be a much greater mobility than in Finland, which I referred to in my blog.

    I'm beginning to worry about the quality of your estimates.

    Go on ...
    You dont seem to have taken the sky falling in into account. That's gotta have an impact.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Anorak
    The last one had I believe a .270 deer rifle with Leopold scopes, after a small discussion he decided that the matter was unimportant, and that his Arabian employer was never going to notice as he hadn't been near the place in three years.
    Rational discussion can be productive.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Anybody been "egged" in Scotland yet?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Sean_F said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @TheWatcher
    "Would 'everyone' be expected to maintain the land too?"
    Yes, it is the point of the soon to be introduced "abandoned land" act. Scotland only I believe, the rest of the country can carry on subsidising playgrounds for the rich as is their right in a democratic society.

    You think Scots really want to go back to the land?

    It's all going a bit 'Mad Max'.

    Meanwhile, here's a documentary on the future of Scotland.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Road_(2009_film)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Smarmeron said:

    @Carnyx
    Our royals and landed gentry have an interesting provenance, and as you say, it is unimportant. Any true picto/celt can tell you that you own the land on which you stand, and everything else is a mere "loan".

    I don't think I've ever seen the no true Scotsman fallacy actually used about true Scotsmen.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    TheWatcher
    Better to die a free man than live as a slave?
    ;-)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Neil said:

    You you factored in the millions of emigrants fleeing Scotland after the horrors of the 'yes' vote?

    That raises an interesting point - in the event of a YES vote, when do the border posts go up?

    Come 19th Sept, if YES wins, there could be significant numbers wanting to move south and they are still UK citizens until March 2016.

    Where would we put them all? How many would emigrate south?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    The majority of the "successful" people, are born into it (most of the papers covered this fact recently)
    It's why the establishment worships the Royal family, wealth is a privilege of birth.
    SeanT will be along soon to give you the comfort that it is all down to genetics, but he is batshit insane.


    I suppose 'most of the papers' is a marginally better source that RT News. Either way it's rubbish - most successful people and by that I mean those who are able to look after themselves without nanny state do so by hard work. Class envy of the super rich is not an attractive trait to display so prominently. Your problem is you equate success with being a millionaire - you should be more modest in your aspirations - you'll be happier and much less bitter.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    isam said:

    Live coverage of ukip rotherham asking labour councillors to put themselves up for re election

    http://www.rotherham.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/146763

    Can you please let me know what happens, isam, as I now have togo out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    The land isn't much good for anything else. Take them out of the equation and it's pretty obvious what the outcome will be.

    Yes. A greatly improved habitat for wildlife....


  • 2) An English Parliament would not suffer the same electoral imbalance which virtually precludes Conservatives from winning a majority. The English 'Government' would be the choice of England and not altered by the choices of predominantly Labour Scotland and Wales.

    Scotland is not "predominantly Labour". I don't know whether anyone has mentioned his name but there is a chap called Alex Salmond who runs the show, together with his SNP chums: not Labour. Scotland might return just a single Conservative MP but that is surely the fault of the Thatcher and Major governments, as there used to be a couple of dozen tartan Tories in the House.

    Nor is the Conservative Party virtually precluded from winning a majority. It has actually formed the government within recent living memory. Conversely, Labour would have won its last few elections without Scotland.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited September 2014
    Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Carnyx
    Our royals and landed gentry have an interesting provenance, and as you say, it is unimportant. Any true picto/celt can tell you that you own the land on which you stand, and everything else is a mere "loan".

    I don't think I've ever seen the no true Scotsman fallacy actually used about true Scotsmen.
    A Celt may be a Scot (depending on timing) but the opposite most certainly does not follow. [Edit] There are so many of us Scots who are not Celts/Gaels.

    Celtic (Gaelic) culture had some very interesting concepts of land holding. Much of its latter history is about the collision of those concepts with southern (non-Gaelic) legal norms.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    The land isn't much good for anything else. Take them out of the equation and it's pretty obvious what the outcome will be.

    Yes. A greatly improved habitat for wildlife....

    The kind that lives on scrubland.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    You you factored in the millions of emigrants fleeing Scotland after the horrors of the 'yes' vote?

    That raises an interesting point - in the event of a YES vote, when do the border posts go up?

    Come 19th Sept, if YES wins, there could be significant numbers wanting to move south and they are still UK citizens until March 2016.

    Where would we put them all? How many would emigrate south?
    How quickly can you erect a fence in your heels? Better get up to the border pronto!

  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114
    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Neil said:

    FF42 said:

    Something I have been meaning to do for a while. I have published some stats on our likely post-independence unemployment rate. I reckon 20%</, up from 6% now and the worst it's been since the 1930's.

    It's here in gory detail, if anyone is interested:
    http://scotlandeconomy.wordpress.com/

    If we vote Yes <b>other Scots will pay for it with their jobs. At least we should go into this with our eyes open.

    You you factored in the millions of emigrants fleeing Scotland after the horrors of the 'yes' vote?

    That's a good point. The headline figure would come down due to otherwise unemployed Scots moving south. I would expect there to be a much greater mobility than in Finland, which I referred to in my blog.

    I'm beginning to worry about the quality of your estimates.

    Go on ...
    You dont seem to have taken the sky falling in into account. That's gotta have an impact.

    Thanks for that. I did refer to other factors potentially adding to the 20% unemployment figure after independence. I definitely want to be challenged on this, particularly if anyone has reason to think the 20% figure is too high. Your point about involuntary emigration reducing nominal unemployment is a good one. Checking the web, it seems it's a live issue in Ireland right now.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    I see the £ has risen against the € & $ today - almost back to pre YouGov levels. Do the traders know something we don't or are they realizing a Yes vote would be good for rUK?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Neil said:


    How quickly can you erect a fence in your heels? Better get up to the border pronto!

    I would wear a short skirt. That should keep them north of the border....
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    FF42 said:

    Your point about involuntary emigration reducing nominal unemployment is a good one.

    I wasnt making a serious commentary on your analysis. I didnt really think it deserved one.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014


    2) An English Parliament would not suffer the same electoral imbalance which virtually precludes Conservatives from winning a majority. The English 'Government' would be the choice of England and not altered by the choices of predominantly Labour Scotland and Wales.

    Scotland is not "predominantly Labour". I don't know whether anyone has mentioned his name but there is a chap called Alex Salmond who runs the show, together with his SNP chums: not Labour. Scotland might return just a single Conservative MP but that is surely the fault of the Thatcher and Major governments, as there used to be a couple of dozen tartan Tories in the House.

    Nor is the Conservative Party virtually precluded from winning a majority. It has actually formed the government within recent living memory. Conversely, Labour would have won its last few elections without Scotland.
    In terms of Westminster it is...Hence Labour 41 MPs. SNP 6 MPs. Its not even close. I am not concerned with your domestic affairs. And it is rather crass to talk of 'living' memory because I imagine that there are those who can just about remember a Liberal Government but there ain't been one of them for a fair few decades.

    As it stands given the electoral imbalance and Labour dominance (in Westminster terms) of Welsh and Scottish politics the Tories are virtually precluded a majority!

    PS And its 18 years since The Tories had a majority government.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:


    How quickly can you erect a fence in your heels? Better get up to the border pronto!

    I would wear a short skirt. That should keep them north of the border....
    Wont that depend on what you wear under the skirt?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    Come 19th Sept, if YES wins, there could be significant numbers wanting to move south and they are still UK citizens until March 2016.

    The capital flight will be slowed by the fact that nobody in Scotland will be able to sell their house...
  • Our cup runneth over, though I'm a bit suspicious of what's slopping over the sides.

    Nick Eardley ‏@nickeardley 2 mins
    Downing Street: David Cameron to visit Scotland again on Monday #indyref
  • Socrates said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Carnyx
    Our royals and landed gentry have an interesting provenance, and as you say, it is unimportant. Any true picto/celt can tell you that you own the land on which you stand, and everything else is a mere "loan".

    I don't think I've ever seen the no true Scotsman fallacy actually used about true Scotsmen.
    LOL!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MarqueeMark
    "Yes. A greatly improved habitat for wildlife...."
    You mean like the Flow Country? Plant pine tree plantations where you know they won't grow, but that you can use to gain a tax advantage?

    @felix
    I don't envy most the "super rich" I have seen what they lose as they achieve it.
  • felix said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    The majority of the "successful" people, are born into it (most of the papers covered this fact recently)
    It's why the establishment worships the Royal family, wealth is a privilege of birth.
    SeanT will be along soon to give you the comfort that it is all down to genetics, but he is batshit insane.


    I suppose 'most of the papers' is a marginally better source that RT News. Either way it's rubbish - most successful people and by that I mean those who are able to look after themselves without nanny state do so by hard work. Class envy of the super rich is not an attractive trait to display so prominently. Your problem is you equate success with being a millionaire - you should be more modest in your aspirations - you'll be happier and much less bitter.

    "Nanny state" is absolutely vital to most people's lives - whether it be schools, hospitals, pensions, housing benefit, unemployment benefit, child care subsidies, family credit or whatever. Without "nanny state" I would certainly not now be a top rate taxpayer and the co-owner of a business that supports over 20 well-paid jobs. Thank God we have it.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Neil said:

    Neil said:


    How quickly can you erect a fence in your heels? Better get up to the border pronto!

    I would wear a short skirt. That should keep them north of the border....
    Wont that depend on what you wear under the skirt?

    Did your parents never sit you down to explain all that?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Neil said:

    Neil said:


    How quickly can you erect a fence in your heels? Better get up to the border pronto!

    I would wear a short skirt. That should keep them north of the border....
    Wont that depend on what you wear under the skirt?

    In Scotland, nothing.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Neil said:

    Neil said:


    How quickly can you erect a fence in your heels? Better get up to the border pronto!

    I would wear a short skirt. That should keep them north of the border....
    Wont that depend on what you wear under the skirt?

    Probably...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheWatcher
    Nothing is worn under the kilt madam, it is all in perfect working order.
    A penny for every time that line gets used and I could join the super rich. :-)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Every loon and frother is on today in a pure funk. We even have the Queen of loonies back sounding like a female Sean.
    Going to be a tough 8 days for you nutjobs.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Without a nanny state, the pharmacist that recommended I use extra large condoms may have not have got sufficient training and could have been working on the checkout in Aldi
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    felix said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @felix
    The majority of the "successful" people, are born into it (most of the papers covered this fact recently)
    It's why the establishment worships the Royal family, wealth is a privilege of birth.
    SeanT will be along soon to give you the comfort that it is all down to genetics, but he is batshit insane.


    I suppose 'most of the papers' is a marginally better source that RT News. Either way it's rubbish - most successful people and by that I mean those who are able to look after themselves without nanny state do so by hard work. Class envy of the super rich is not an attractive trait to display so prominently. Your problem is you equate success with being a millionaire - you should be more modest in your aspirations - you'll be happier and much less bitter.

    "Nanny state" is absolutely vital to most people's lives - whether it be schools, hospitals, pensions, housing benefit, unemployment benefit, child care subsidies, family credit or whatever. Without "nanny state" I would certainly not now be a top rate taxpayer and the co-owner of a business that supports over 20 well-paid jobs. Thank God we have it.
    I have no issue with benefits which are paid for - indeed there would be none if most people did not work hard and pay taxes. I do have a problem with those who see all benefits as a right whether they've made any effort to contribute in their working lives or not. Like you and all of my family we always worked, paid taxes, saved and at times did without, for future gain. There are too many who just want the free ride. This is the source of the resentment many feel about 'benefits'.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    felix said:

    I see the £ has risen against the € & $ today - almost back to pre YouGov levels. Do the traders know something we don't or are they realizing a Yes vote would be good for rUK?

    CU imminent
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    A new central bank in an independent Scotland would need big stockpiles of sterling if the country opted to adopt the pound without an agreement with the rest of the United Kingdom, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday.

    He also said it was likely that economic borders would build up between an independent Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

    Little more than a week before Scotland votes on independence, Carney told members of Britain's parliament that a Scottish central bank might need sterling reserves equivalent to at least 25 percent of Scottish gross domestic product.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/10/uk-scotland-independence-carney-idUKKBN0H51NM20140910
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Patrick said:

    Wouldn't it be just fabulous if a Labour Education Secretary announced his plan to return all schools to LEA control and a deepening of dumbing down and a majority of English MPs could say: Err...no yer not.

    If all schools were returned to LEA control, then the elected LEA reps could say no. Governments like centralising power, even when they claim otherwise. That is why people used to complain that the largest LEA in the country was Michael Gove's desk.
    Psst, The results being achieved by LEA primary schools are so fecking awful (see the figures I quoted on here the day before yesterday) that frankly anyone speaking-up for LEAs should be charged with child cruelty.
    Politicians have long been relaxed about illiteracy. The armed forces used to complain about it during conscription more than 50 years ago. The only Secretary of State to have specifically addressed reading was David Blunkett: synthetic phonics and the reading hour. The real problem is there is not enough research into teaching and what little there has been is usually not communicated to those at the chalk face. Michael Gove talked encouragingly and approvingly of research findings but it was just talk, and instead he chose to squander time, money and, we must remember, the support of teachers on irrelevancies like Free Schools and Of Mice And Men.
    Teaching children how to read is not a new science. It has been going on for a very long time. That teachers in England (and I really don't know or care about anywhere else) seem to fail so massively at it these days is a scandal. FFS if 20% (40% for the disadvantaged) of children after 6 years in their care still cannot read then there is something horribly, drastically wrong. If that is the performace of LEAs then let us abolish LEAs it can't get much worse.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    isam said:

    Without a nanny state, the pharmacist that recommended I use extra large condoms may have not have got sufficient training and could have been working on the checkout in Aldi

    Lol. How did you explain your particular needs one wonders?
  • have I missed the news to mark black wednesday for the nats and to cheer union fans?

    was it prescott calling on his soapbox for a combined england/scotland football team .... that must have turned it all around?
  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106



    You are very wrong

    1) An English Parliament would not include the likes of Gordon brown, Danny Alexander, Dougie Alexander etc etc. So not the same old politicians.

    2) An English Parliament would not suffer the same electoral imbalance which virtually precludes Conservatives from winning a majority. The English 'Government' would be the choice of England and not altered by the choices of predominantly Labour Scotland and Wales.

    It will also allow the English people to counterbalance the excesses of Westminster by being powerful enough to constrain Downing Street.

    3) An English Parliament would not need to consider the best interest of the other home nations and therefore could prioritise purely based on the needs of England

    4) If subsidiarity were properly used to restructure the political system then there will be little or no room for power grabbing between layers

    5) By locating an English Parliament outside London it would go along way over time in reversing the polarisation of society around London.

    6) If such devolution is so pointless why is it the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish aren't pleading for it to be reversed?

    7) It celebrates the English Identity and unifies the English people

    As I said, its right under the settlement as we have it that England should have a Parliament. My central point is power will be no closer to individuals than it is now. As we have seen in Wales, people has as much input into how we are governed as when things were run from Whitehall. Also I agree with you on point one, you will not get the same old politicians as individuals, you will get 3rd rate politicians who would struggle to distinguish themselves in a parish council. Again see Wales. With all the best will of the Welsh Assembly trying to govern Wales in the interests of Wales, our services are no better, probably worse than before its existence. It has only achieved the goodies of like free prescriptions, but even that at the expense of the health budget. England may have a different experience, but I doubt it.
  • malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    I see the £ has risen against the € & $ today - almost back to pre YouGov levels. Do the traders know something we don't or are they realizing a Yes vote would be good for rUK?

    CU imminent
    CU next Thursday?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    I see the £ has risen against the € & $ today - almost back to pre YouGov levels. Do the traders know something we don't or are they realizing a Yes vote would be good for rUK?

    CU imminent
    Or not. Hence the rise.
  • At least we're keeping the cousins entertained:

    @davidtorrence: Just did an #indyref radio interview for CBS in LA: "So David, will the Republic of Ireland be next to seek independence from the UK?" Er...
  • have I missed the news to mark black wednesday for the nats and to cheer union fans?

    was it prescott calling on his soapbox for a combined england/scotland football team .... that must have turned it all around?

    I think it may be the blog linked to by its author below.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    At least we're keeping the cousins entertained:

    @davidtorrence: Just did an #indyref radio interview for CBS in LA: "So David, will the Republic of Ireland be next to seek independence from the UK?" Er...

    Nah, those Dubliners are Brits through and through...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    felix said:

    isam said:

    Without a nanny state, the pharmacist that recommended I use extra large condoms may have not have got sufficient training and could have been working on the checkout in Aldi

    Lol. How did you explain your particular needs one wonders?
    "I've got a mist irrigation system and need to waterproof my cucumbers ..."?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Neil said:


    How quickly can you erect a fence in your heels? Better get up to the border pronto!

    I would wear a short skirt. ....
    With or without the corset shoes?

    *Goes off to bathe wrists in cold water once more*
  • Patrick said:

    Wouldn't it be just fabulous if a Labour Education Secretary announced his plan to return all schools to LEA control and a deepening of dumbing down and a majority of English MPs could say: Err...no yer not.

    If all schools were returned to LEA control, then the elected LEA reps could say no. Governments like centralising power, even when they claim otherwise. That is why people used to complain that the largest LEA in the country was Michael Gove's desk.
    Psst, The results being achieved by LEA primary schools are so fecking awful (see the figures I quoted on here the day before yesterday) that frankly anyone speaking-up for LEAs should be charged with child cruelty.
    Politicians have long been relaxed about illiteracy. The armed forces used to complain about it during conscription more than 50 years ago. The only Secretary of State to have specifically addressed reading was David Blunkett: synthetic phonics and the reading hour. The real problem is there is not enough research into teaching and what little there has been is usually not communicated to those at the chalk face. Michael Gove talked encouragingly and approvingly of research findings but it was just talk, and instead he chose to squander time, money and, we must remember, the support of teachers on irrelevancies like Free Schools and Of Mice And Men.
    Teaching children how to read is not a new science. It has been going on for a very long time. That teachers in England (and I really don't know or care about anywhere else) seem to fail so massively at it these days is a scandal. FFS if 20% (40% for the disadvantaged) of children after 6 years in their care still cannot read then there is something horribly, drastically wrong. If that is the performace of LEAs then let us abolish LEAs it can't get much worse.
    It has indeed been going on for a very long time, and has had a high failure rate for a very long time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    malcolmg said:

    Every loon and frother is on today in a pure funk. We even have the Queen of loonies back sounding like a female Sean.
    Going to be a tough 8 days for you nutjobs.

    What, no "Fanny Features?"

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    edited September 2014
    felix said:

    I see the £ has risen against the € & $ today - almost back to pre YouGov levels. Do the traders know something we don't or are they realizing a Yes vote would be good for rUK?

    I think the Euro is down on the possibility Scotland might join...

    More seriously, Spanish bond yields have jumped (I.e. the Spanish government is paying more to borrow money) because of concerns that wealthy Catalonia might follow Scotland's lead.

    Sporting Index spread on Turnover has just ticked up to 80-81.

    That's still a buy, imo. I'm expecting at least 85%.

    If turnout tops 85%, then SIndy will be by far the most successful betting event of my life.
    If it's below 70%, I'm going to have to have a long chat with my wife about expenditure levels...
  • Anthony Wells:


    The next Scottish referendum polls

    For the many people who keep on asking, here are the remaining Scottish referendum polls that I know about. It’s not necessarily exhaustive, there may be other polls out there still to come, but it’s the sum of my knowledge at the moment:

    There is a Survation poll to come tonight, for the Daily Record
    There is a YouGov poll for the Sun and Times on Friday
    At the end of the week or weekend (not sure of the exact day) there is a new ICM poll
    I think there is also a new Panelbase poll at the weekend


    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8970
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986

    have I missed the news to mark black wednesday for the nats and to cheer union fans?

    Everyone is so imaptient these days !! No poll for 36 hours and already the withdrawal symptoms are creeping in.

    I can just imagine the scanning of Twitter for the slightest hint of the next poll (and of course the opportunity to play the markets accordingly).

    I'm hoping to get to Sandown on Friday afternoon for some good old-fashioned betting - the ancient battle of wits between the punter armed with his wits and the Racing Post versus the bookie (none of this Internet nonsense).

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    At the end of the week or weekend (not sure of the exact day) there is a new ICM poll

    Isnt the ICM for Scotland on Sunday and so expected late Sat / early Sun?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    tessyC said:


    As I said, its right under the settlement as we have it that England should have a Parliament.

    The only plus from the current mess is that, post YES, we would finally get one (more or less) as the numbers of Welsh and NI MPs are small.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    felix said:

    isam said:

    Without a nanny state, the pharmacist that recommended I use extra large condoms may have not have got sufficient training and could have been working on the checkout in Aldi

    Lol. How did you explain your particular needs one wonders?
    Tripped over it on the way in!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    have I missed the news to mark black wednesday for the nats and to cheer union fans?

    Everyone is so imaptient these days !! No poll for 36 hours and already the withdrawal symptoms are creeping in.

    I can just imagine the scanning of Twitter for the slightest hint of the next poll (and of course the opportunity to play the markets accordingly).

    I'm hoping to get to Sandown on Friday afternoon for some good old-fashioned betting - the ancient battle of wits between the punter armed with his wits and the Racing Post versus the bookie (none of this Internet nonsense).

    You'll be lucky.. the bookies all just trace Betdaq
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Scott_P said:

    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl

    What would those 'Tory Turnips' and 'Toom Stoodges' know?
  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106


    The only plus from the current mess is that, post YES, we would finally get one (more or less) as the numbers of Welsh and NI MPs are small.

    I agree in that situation it would be a waste of money to set up a new institution. Much easier to have English votes for English laws.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Scott_P said:

    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl

    What would those 'Tory Turnips' and 'Toom Stoodges' know?
    Non-issue. Nobody will be able to afford a house.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    edited September 2014
    Contagion continues

    twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/509696354994913280/photo/1
  • Scott_P said:

    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl

    sensible house prices in no time in an independent scotland!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Scott_P said:

    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl

    LOL, the sky is falling the sky is falling
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    With or without the corset shoes?

    *Goes off to bathe wrists in cold water once more*

    I see your imagination is working overtime. They are nice shoes, but not worth that level of excitement. I only call them that because of how the straps criss-cross.

    Here... calm down .... http://www.bhs.co.uk/en/bhuk/product/women-1020590/sandals-2717985/black-snake-cross-strap-heeled-sandal-2636097?bi=1&ps=40
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited September 2014
    tessyC said:


    As I said, its right under the settlement as we have it that England should have a Parliament. My central point is power will be no closer to individuals than it is now. As we have seen in Wales, people has as much input into how we are governed as when things were run from Whitehall. Also I agree with you on point one, you will not get the same old politicians as individuals, you will get 3rd rate politicians who would struggle to distinguish themselves in a parish council. Again see Wales. With all the best will of the Welsh Assembly trying to govern Wales in the interests of Wales, our services are no better, probably worse than before its existence. It has only achieved the goodies of like free prescriptions, but even that at the expense of the health budget. England may have a different experience, but I doubt it.
    Then you clearly do not understand what subsidiarity means (point 4):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidiarity

    The quality of politicians is a false argument because it bares no relation to the structure of government but the quality of the criteria used by political parties who select the candidates. Now I'll happily debate how we reform political parties in this country to improve the quality of their candidates but that has nothing to do with an English Parliament but how much the parties and the country invest in producing good politicians.

    As for the argument about bribing the electorate. All politicians use bribery wherever they can .

    You really should differentiate between real arguments about an English parliament and those that are general failings/ habits of our political class. otherwise there will never be any improvement in our political settlement.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Anorak
    "Non-issue. Nobody will be able to afford a house."
    We will be the same as large parts of England in that case.
    Economic parity there at least, then?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:


    LOL, the sky is falling the sky is falling

    Drink some more Kool Aid...

    @JohnRentoul: Alex Salmond, not answering a question http://t.co/RpQQvMT0Mn
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl

    LOL, the sky is falling the sky is falling
    Arf, and you just posted the New Statesman cover.

    Make your mind up, is it carnage or all bollocks?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014
    Smarmeron said:

    @Anorak
    "Non-issue. Nobody will be able to afford a house."
    We will be the same as large parts of England in that case.
    Economic parity there at least, then?

    Equality for all. A socialist paradise. Anyway, I'd have thought you'd advocate state ownership of all property, rendering the affordability of housing a problem for benighted, dysfunctional capitalist states.
  • Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:


    LOL, the sky is falling the sky is falling

    Drink some more Kool Aid...

    @JohnRentoul: Alex Salmond, not answering a question http://t.co/RpQQvMT0Mn
    Scotland will vote to go independent on a false prospectus.

    Salmond's obituary in a nutshell...
  • tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    edited September 2014



    Then you clearly do not understand what subsidiarity means (point 4):

    .


    You agree with my argument, an English Parliament alone would not bring power closer to people than now, you would need devolution below that level to achieve it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    have I missed the news to mark black wednesday for the nats and to cheer union fans?

    was it prescott calling on his soapbox for a combined england/scotland football team .... that must have turned it all around?

    I presume it is the mortgage news.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Anorak
    Pragmatic Communist, We realize that despite all the warnings of the wise men, mankind has yet to wean itself off mindless greed.
    There has to be enough "capitalism" to keep people happy, while at the same time stopping the lazy buggers at the top getting paid for doing less. (the ones who genuinely add value to society will be allowed greater leeway)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    Scott_P said:

    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl

    sensible house prices in no time in an independent scotland!
    That's the DM front page sorted for tomorrow ...
  • Krugman returns to SINDY:

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com

    I’ve read quite a lot of the independence literature, and it shows no appreciation for the dangers involved. What Scottish voters should do is look hard at the experience, just across the North Sea, of divorcing currency from statehood; it’s not encouraging.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Alistair said:

    have I missed the news to mark black wednesday for the nats and to cheer union fans?

    was it prescott calling on his soapbox for a combined england/scotland football team .... that must have turned it all around?

    I presume it is the mortgage news.
    Actually no - Danny Alexander is saying, with a atright face, that the annoucements from BP and Standard Life are the "Balck Wednesady" event.

    Talk about a fucking let down.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-referendum-cameron-miliband-and-clegg-visit-scotland-to-campaign-for-no-live
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    have I missed the news to mark black wednesday for the nats and to cheer union fans?

    was it prescott calling on his soapbox for a combined england/scotland football team .... that must have turned it all around?

    I presume it is the mortgage news.
    Actually no - Danny Alexander is saying, with a atright face, that the annoucements from BP and Standard Life are the "Balck Wednesady" event.

    Talk about a fucking let down.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/live/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-referendum-cameron-miliband-and-clegg-visit-scotland-to-campaign-for-no-live
    what do you expect from a tool like him
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    *CarlottaVance
    "What Scottish voters should do is look hard at the experience, just across the North Sea"
    Krugman might have to be a little more specific in his directions, or we may well come to the wrong conclusion.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @pollycurtis: Banks could block new mortgages in Scotland if it votes for independence http://t.co/Ao6SzZAiTl

    sensible house prices in no time in an independent scotland!
    That's the DM front page sorted for tomorrow ...
    How about The Express - 'Was Diana killed to stop her supporting independence for Scotland?'
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2014


    With or without the corset shoes?

    *Goes off to bathe wrists in cold water once more*

    I see your imagination is working overtime. They are nice shoes, but not worth that level of excitement. I only call them that because of how the straps criss-cross.

    Here... calm down .... http://www.bhs.co.uk/en/bhuk/product/women-1020590/sandals-2717985/black-snake-cross-strap-heeled-sandal-2636097?bi=1&ps=40
    Crumbs, was that them? Sheesh! Very nice for sure but to describe them as corset shoes immediately after a few sentences on the new three inch wedgies might have been a bit unfair on your male readers, Mrs C. Perhaps you could pace us a bit more next time.
This discussion has been closed.