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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited September 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Slackbadder Unlike a marriage the Scots have never loved the English, polls have shown Devomax more popular than independence or status quo, if moves towards that then sensible

    I might be being a bit thick here, but are you saying if the Scots want DevoMax then we should give it to them? If so may I refer you to your first sentence and ask, "Why? What is in it for us?"
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    Alistair said:

    And "bluffing on Currency union" Is up to 51 from 42

    It is going to be a rude awakening when it is shown not to be a bluff. The Scots cannot say they were not warned!
    They will be bounced into the euro. Pretty sure it will be a condition of them getting back into the EU anyway. Salmond knows this, but he's unable to admit it because he can't fight a referendum on independence and going into the euro at the same time. He's got away with it because No have had their hands tied -the No parties can't attack on Europe as they all support it.

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    saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Win win for the Tories although maybe not Cameron.

    Yes means 41 seats loss for Labour

    No means angry nats will win all the Scottish seats in 2015
    Another 41 seats lost by Labour.
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    SeanT said:

    Has anyone warned Warren Buffet that SeanT is playing the financial markets ?

    And has anyone explained to our bewailing BritNat that he could hedge his finances by betting on a YES vote and/or on Cameron resigning , both on which he seems confident off.


    You seem oddly irritated that I have been proved right about almost everything.

    Speaking of being always right, or wrong, it's a shame tim isn't here. He used to scoff very loudly at the idea Scots would ever vote YES, when I suggested it was clearly possible.

    His reputation as a political soothsayer is unjustified.
    Not irritated but amused.

    If I had a vote I would vote YES so winding up bewailing BritNats is as much fun as poking a monkey in a cage would have been to people a few centuries ago.

    And I'll point out that you haven't been proved right about anything yet.

    I'll further point out that your "the pound might fall, interest rates might rise, the stock market might crash, house prices might be affected" is a typical outburst of the metropolitan mindset which you otherwise blame for causing the present situation.

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Carmichael seems to be walking back expectation of this offer. It's just a restatement of existing party plans for further devolution - there is nothing radical at all.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045
    edited September 2014
    Wow - lots of recrimination being spewed here!

    Who's to blame - hard to say but it's ironic that the Conservative party is the 'Conservative and Unionist Party'. Salmond has payed a blinder since he equated BetterTogether with the Tories - hate is a powerful emotion!!

    What is calamity Clegg thinking now - is the coalition worth the break-up of the Union....

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    Fuzzy waffle clarification.

    Tim Reid ‏@TimReidBBC 59 mins
    Whitehall source clarifying Osborne's "slightly ambiguous" offer - "what he's not saying is that a detailed final package has been agreed"
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Although PB seems to gave conceded that yes wins.... It's still only a 31% chance according to the odds!!

    I don't think that it has been conceded by PB. I think that No are still ahead and can win if they hold their nerve. SeanT is panicking like Corporal Jones, when a steady nerve is required.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Interesting thought? Though it will obviously be a "non starter"

    "MPs told: to get ahead, forget old left and right divisions and use the best ideas from both "
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-told-to-get-ahead-forget-the-old-left-and-right-divisions-and-use-the-best-ideas-from-both-9716588.html
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,144

    Alistair said:

    And "bluffing on Currency union" Is up to 51 from 42

    It is going to be a rude awakening when it is shown not to be a bluff. The Scots cannot say they were not warned!
    Why should Cameron & Osborne be telling the truth now? Why are they expected to have changed the habits of a lifetime?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL
    Financier said:

    YG

    A bit of fun at the end of today's poll.

    On a different subject...
    Have you personally ever filmed or
    photographed yourself having sex?

    The most YES replies comes from the LibDems - following Clegg's self-confession or a different sort of Cleggasm?

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Famously women don't support independence as much as men, is this because of OAP women? Eliminating OAPs would the gender gap be a lot smaller/exist?
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @OldKingCole

    'Why should Cameron & Osborne be telling the truth now? Why are they expected to have changed the habits of a lifetime?'

    Or indeed Miliband or Clegg?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    The breakup of Britain means the breakup of Spain as well. Anyone disagree?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    HurstLlama English votes for English laws
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    Alistair Yes, but the message of those plans for further devolution may not have got through, the key is the genie is now out of the bottle, there will be no going back
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Jim Dobbin MP has sadly died at the age of 73:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29100304

    His constituency was Heywood & Middleton, next door to Rochdale.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%
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    Alex Massie, indy fence sitter and instinctive Unionist.

    'Come in Britain, your time is up.'

    http://tinyurl.com/pgt9oel

    The last lines may be the best indicator of what's happening in Scotland just now.

    'Bloody hell, if you’re going to jump I’ll jump too. Even if it is a long way down.'
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David Rendel has been selected as LD candidate to defend their seat in Somerton & Frome.

    He was MP for Newbury from 1993 to 2005.
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    Alex Massie, indy fence sitter and instinctive Unionist.

    'Come in Britain, your time is up.'

    http://tinyurl.com/pgt9oel

    The last lines may be the best indicator of what's happening in Scotland just now.

    'Bloody hell, if you’re going to jump I’ll jump too. Even if it is a long way down.'

    I couldn't agree with you more. But lets hope enough of the jumpers can still be talked down.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Heywood & Middleton, demographics:

    White 92%
    Asian 5%
    Mixed 1.5%
    Black 1%
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Further concessions to Scotland, would be electoral suicide for the Tories and a gift to UKIP.

    The English won't stand for it.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    HYUFD said:

    HurstLlama English votes for English laws

    Yes, true but nobody seems to be saying that. In any event that is an option that is always open to us and in the event of Sottish Independence will, almost, come as part of the package.

    The DevoMax or Federalist option needs to be clearly set out and voted upon by all the people it affects. Any party that tries to use it as a bribe for the Scots to stay within the Union but without considering the needs and sensibilities of the English will, rightly, get hammered.

    Nobody is putting up a positive case for the Union, probably because there isn't one, and I am damned if I can see why the English should be further disadvantaged for the sake of keeping the wretched thing.
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    Alex Massie, indy fence sitter and instinctive Unionist.

    'Come in Britain, your time is up.'

    http://tinyurl.com/pgt9oel

    The last lines may be the best indicator of what's happening in Scotland just now.

    'Bloody hell, if you’re going to jump I’ll jump too. Even if it is a long way down.'

    I couldn't agree with you more. But lets hope enough of the jumpers can still be talked down.

    Congratulations, you managed a whole post without mentioning the EU.

    Do you think Farage and UKIP's sole elected representative in Scotland, Coburn, are the chaps to do the talking down?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    All that has happened is one poll. You would have thought God had spoken. SeanT even moved his stash. Imagine, a poll was never wrong !
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    Just checked and UKIP didn't win any of the wards in Heywood and Middleton in this year's local elections and they only really came close in one.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    edited September 2014
    HurstLlama Prominent Tory backbenchers like John Redwood have begun pushing English votes for English laws, if there is Devomax, they will hammer Cameron to ensure he includes that in the conversation.

    TheWatcher That will also help resolve any English anger which emerges over further powers and concessions to Scotland
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Further concessions to Scotland, would be electoral suicide for the Tories and a gift to UKIP.

    The English won't stand for it.

    Exactly, Mr. Watcher.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,140

    Carnyx said:



    malcolmg said:

    Well I am off to the Airshow , lovely sunny day and should be nice to see Vulcan , Lancaster, etc. last airshow as a British subject , next one I will be a free man.

    Awwww ... how nice it would be to see a Vulcan flying again.

    I once did a driving training day which included some track work at Bruntingthorpe, where the Vulcan was based, at one point we had to pull over to allow it to land. Awesome - from about as close up as you can get.

    Lucky you!

    I once got to see the inside of a Vulcan cockpit BTW (on an open day at the National Museum of Flight at East Fortune near North Berwick). Astonishingly small, especially for long subsonic missions - notably the Falklands raids (the NMF plane was one of them and still has the Brazilian flag from its unplanned trip to SA).
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why so little cyberspace was given to Panelbase which usually gives YES a better score ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jim Dobbin was very well regarded on all sides of the House, from Twitter messages:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Jim dobbin&s=typd
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    AndyJS said:

    The breakup of Britain means the breakup of Spain as well. Anyone disagree?

    Yes. Though it might lead to the break up of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia - oh, wait.
    Events are quite often completely independent of each other.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
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    Alex Massie, indy fence sitter and instinctive Unionist.

    'Come in Britain, your time is up.'

    http://tinyurl.com/pgt9oel

    The last lines may be the best indicator of what's happening in Scotland just now.

    'Bloody hell, if you’re going to jump I’ll jump too. Even if it is a long way down.'

    I couldn't agree with you more. But lets hope enough of the jumpers can still be talked down.

    Congratulations, you managed a whole post without mentioning the EU.

    Do you think Farage and UKIP's sole elected representative in Scotland, Coburn, are the chaps to do the talking down?
    They're not the ideal messengers, but they are the only ones with the message. Yes shrivels before the truth of the 'EU' argument you unsurprisingly bitch about. It exposes all their 'anti-establishment' b****cks as the hot air it is. Hence the nationalists being terrified letting Farage speak north of the border.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,140
    surbiton said:

    Why so little cyberspace was given to Panelbase which usually gives YES a better score ?

    Because it is more of the same? But the apparent paradox is in fact discussed on Scotgoespop with, as far as I can see, some pretty decent balance (to the extent that it was quoted by one of the resident unionists on PB).

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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Alistair said:

    And "bluffing on Currency union" Is up to 51 from 42

    It is going to be a rude awakening when it is shown not to be a bluff. The Scots cannot say they were not warned!
    Why should Cameron & Osborne be telling the truth now? Why are they expected to have changed the habits of a lifetime?
    You conveniently forget Miliband, Clegg, Balls in your silly little list. Reminder - if the Scots vote yes it'll be on the backs of Labour voters in Scotland deserting their side.
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    surbiton said:

    Why so little cyberspace was given to Panelbase which usually gives YES a better score ?

    No movement, I guess. And still quite close. And YouGov is more of a household name than Panelbase so might be given more credence?

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    HYUFD said:

    HurstLlama Prominent Tory backbenchers like John Redwood have begun pushing English votes for English laws, if there is Devomax, they will hammer Cameron to ensure he includes that in the conversation.

    TheWatcher That will also help resolve any English anger which emerges over further powers and concessions to Scotland

    Full respect, Mr. Hyfud, but in the timescales we are talking about Redwood and Cameron are probably irrelevant. Of course, that may not have been the case if only they had discovered the need to address those nasty big problems, like EVEL, earlier.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
    Yes, should be an easy Labour hold, with potential for UKIP to come second again like they did in Wythenshawe.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,684
    edited September 2014
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    Smarmeron said:

    Interesting thought? Though it will obviously be a "non starter"

    "MPs told: to get ahead, forget old left and right divisions and use the best ideas from both "
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-told-to-get-ahead-forget-the-old-left-and-right-divisions-and-use-the-best-ideas-from-both-9716588.html

    We've done this. The Blairites are Cameroons and the Cameroons are Blairites, with barely a fag paper between their policies (even if the supporting rhetoric differs).
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    About Heywood, its one of the more wealthy areas of greater manchester, UKIP will struggle to win there despite the sizable Tory, LD and BNP vote.

    My prediction is:
    LAB 50
    UKIP 25-30
    CON 10-15
    LD lost deposit.

    There is a chance that if the Liberals put a candidate there they might beat the LDs, its one of the few areas where they had a presence post alliance merger, the last time they stood in 2005 they got 3.5%.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    HurstLlama I think moves towards Devomax would still see No scrape across the line, English votes for English laws would then follow
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    edited September 2014
    surbiton Panelbase was mentioned on the BBC news web report, ie will get through to the people who matter, the non political geeks who could still be swayed
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
    Yes, should be an easy Labour hold, with potential for UKIP to come second again like they did in Wythenshawe.
    Jim Dobbin (RIP) was a Scot, one of many to hold an English seat. Curiously no English in Scottish seats.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Speedy said:

    About Heywood, its one of the more wealthy areas of greater manchester, UKIP will struggle to win there despite the sizable Tory, LD and BNP vote.

    My prediction is:
    LAB 50
    UKIP 25-30
    CON 10-15
    LD lost deposit.

    There is a chance that if the Liberals put a candidate there they might beat the LDs, its one of the few areas where they had a presence post alliance merger, the last time they stood in 2005 they got 3.5%.

    Really? Middleton is a hole. I thought that the wealth in there was outside Bury. Otherwise the money's in South Manchester.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    It's the Daily Mail. You literally could.
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    tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    As said below very unlikely Wales will vote for independence any time soon. Not only are there the economic facts, but also Wales has a very different demographics to Scotland. 20% plus of the population in Wales are English, this is a trend that looks to be continuing. As most of the people moving here are pensioners this may also explain the slow uptick in support for the Conservatives. Far from moving apart from England, in terms of political preference Wales seems to be slowly becoming more aligned. (see also UKIP performance in Wales).
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    matt said:

    It's the Daily Mail. You literally could.
    I'm satisfied of their friendly acquaintance at the very least.

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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Alistair said:

    And "bluffing on Currency union" Is up to 51 from 42

    It is going to be a rude awakening when it is shown not to be a bluff. The Scots cannot say they were not warned!
    If Yes wins then Salmond will adopt the pound. There will be some form of agreement over some aspects of the practicalities of this (e.g. will we object to the Scotch Pound being called a pound?). Whatever the terms of that agreement Salmond will crow that it is a currency union and will be believed. So the awakening will never happen.

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    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
    Yes, should be an easy Labour hold, with potential for UKIP to come second again like they did in Wythenshawe.
    Jim Dobbin (RIP) was a Scot, one of many to hold an English seat. Curiously no English in Scottish seats.
    Yes there are.
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    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
    Yes, should be an easy Labour hold, with potential for UKIP to come second again like they did in Wythenshawe.
    Jim Dobbin (RIP) was a Scot, one of many to hold an English seat. Curiously no English in Scottish seats.
    Yes there are.
    Have you kept a list?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,399
    edited September 2014

    Alex Massie, indy fence sitter and instinctive Unionist.

    'Come in Britain, your time is up.'

    http://tinyurl.com/pgt9oel

    The last lines may be the best indicator of what's happening in Scotland just now.

    'Bloody hell, if you’re going to jump I’ll jump too. Even if it is a long way down.'

    I couldn't agree with you more. But lets hope enough of the jumpers can still be talked down.

    Congratulations, you managed a whole post without mentioning the EU.

    Do you think Farage and UKIP's sole elected representative in Scotland, Coburn, are the chaps to do the talking down?
    They're not the ideal messengers, but they are the only ones with the message. Yes shrivels before the truth of the 'EU' argument you unsurprisingly bitch about. It exposes all their 'anti-establishment' b****cks as the hot air it is. Hence the nationalists being terrified letting Farage speak north of the border.
    Not ideal? Lol.
    What's your estimate of the size of the inevitable dip in Yes support caused by Farage's visit?
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Don't YouGov have some questions to answer?

    By that, I mean it seems very peculiar to change your methodology now.

    YouGov should have used the same methodology -- either the new one or the old one -- throughout.

    Any methodology change is bound to cause a poll movement.

    Any poll movement is likely to be newsworthy. This one was very newsworthy.

    Is this usual? In polling before an general election, do pollsters routinely change their methodology ten days before the election?
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    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
    Yes, should be an easy Labour hold, with potential for UKIP to come second again like they did in Wythenshawe.
    Jim Dobbin (RIP) was a Scot, one of many to hold an English seat. Curiously no English in Scottish seats.
    Yes there are.
    Have you kept a list?
    No, I just know something about Scotland and its politics.
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    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
    Yes, should be an easy Labour hold, with potential for UKIP to come second again like they did in Wythenshawe.
    Jim Dobbin (RIP) was a Scot, one of many to hold an English seat. Curiously no English in Scottish seats.
    Yes there are.
    Have you kept a list?
    No, I just know something about Scotland and its politics.
    Like your delusion that Irvine Welsh doesn't support the SNP.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    tessyc Indeed Wales only backed devolution in 1999 by 50.3% to 49.7% and there are more Tory MPs in Wales than in inner London or the North East of England. Wales and England were one kingdom centuries before Scotland joined the union
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    @HYUFD the Wales referendum was in 1997

    1999 was the first election to the devolved Cardiff assembly.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,624
    edited September 2014
    HYUFD said:

    tessyc Indeed Wales only backed devolution in 1999 by 50.3% to 49.7% and there are more Tory MPs in Wales than in inner London or the North East of England. Wales and England were one kingdom centuries before Scotland joined the union

    1536 to 1707 wasn't "centuries", 171 years.
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    HYUFD said:

    tessyc Indeed Wales only backed devolution in 1999 by 50.3% to 49.7% and there are more Tory MPs in Wales than in inner London or the North East of England. Wales and England were one kingdom centuries before Scotland joined the union

    1536 to 1707 wasn't "centuries", 171 years.
    Surely more than 1.0 makes it plural?
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    tessyCtessyC Posts: 106
    edited September 2014
    Sunil:

    The Laws in Wales Act of 1536-7 were largely an administrative tidy up. Wales was annexed to the Kingdom of England in 1284 under the statue Rhuddlan. Even before then, much of south and East Wales was controlled by the Crown.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Every time I'm away from the computer for a few hours these days, news breaks. Will the death of Jim Dobbin MP force a by-election?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    edited September 2014
    TessyC Exactly, Sunil you are right about 1997 though apologies
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    Every time I'm away from the computer for a few hours these days, news breaks. Will the death of Jim Dobbin MP force a by-election?

    Yes, it's another opportunity for UKIP to be humiliated.
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    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Just writing the post-race piece.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Every time I'm away from the computer for a few hours these days, news breaks. Will the death of Jim Dobbin MP force a by-election?

    Yes, it's another opportunity for UKIP to be humiliated.
    What a sad-sac you are @saddened
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    Ishmael_X said:

    Alistair said:

    And "bluffing on Currency union" Is up to 51 from 42

    It is going to be a rude awakening when it is shown not to be a bluff. The Scots cannot say they were not warned!
    If Yes wins then Salmond will adopt the pound. There will be some form of agreement over some aspects of the practicalities of this (e.g. will we object to the Scotch Pound being called a pound?). Whatever the terms of that agreement Salmond will crow that it is a currency union and will be believed. So the awakening will never happen.

    It will when they realise the results of currency union - Westminster sign off on Scotland's tax and spending plans. There is no agreement possible without this.

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    AndyJS said:

    Jim Dobbin MP has sadly died at the age of 73:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29100304

    His constituency was Heywood & Middleton, next door to Rochdale.

    Does anyone die happily?

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    AndyJS said:

    Jim Dobbin MP has sadly died at the age of 73:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29100304

    His constituency was Heywood & Middleton, next door to Rochdale.

    Does anyone die happily?

    John Entwhistle had a go at it.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    2010 result:

    Lab 40.1%
    Con 27.2%
    LD 22.7%
    BNP 7.0%
    UKIP 2.6%
    Ind 0.4%

    So Labour could get 50%.
    Yes, should be an easy Labour hold, with potential for UKIP to come second again like they did in Wythenshawe.
    Of course UKIP will stand. It's another opportunity to get more widely known in the area.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    All that has happened is one poll. You would have thought God had spoken. SeanT even moved his stash. Imagine, a poll was never wrong !

    If you don't think the £ is going to take a drubbing tomorrow then I wish you well in your Slow Learning classes, this year.

    The pound fell almost five cents when everyone got spooked by one poll showing YES doing unexpectedly well - but still a distance behind.

    Here's the chart.

    http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1M

    Now we have a poll with YES ahead and the SNP with apparently unstoppable momentum?

    The £ will fall a lot further, starting tomorrow morning.
    Whether Yes or No win on the 18th, I expect some instability in the markets. If there is one thing markets do not like it is uncertainty.

    I am sure that SeanT is not alone in wanting to protect his savings.
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    Mr. T, it depends what the offer is, and what England gets. Are we to heap power upon Holyrood whilst having MPs from north of the border voting on English matters? That's unacceptable, but would be very helpful for UKIP.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    SeanT Exactly right, although Panelbase still has No narrowly ahead there should be devomax and English vote for English laws, there is now no alternative
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    Every time I'm away from the computer for a few hours these days, news breaks. Will the death of Jim Dobbin MP force a by-election?

    Yes, it's another opportunity for UKIP to be humiliated.
    What a sad-sac you are @saddened
    UKIP will stand they'll get their arses handed to them, did I miss something?
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    Political news from Canada. First up, Jim Prentice has won the Tory leadership election in Alberta by a landslide with a promise of a new start and to clean up politics. You would think that if the Albertans wanted a new start, they wouldn't keep voting for the Tories, but not much chance of that.

    Second, the Quebec provincial govt wants to sign up to a revised constitutional settlement by 2017. Meanwhile the federal govt has no plans to open constitutional negotiations. Le Ref Indy by 2020?

    Lastly, the latest Scottish polls are making the TV news over here - I'm sure the constitutional similarities are not escaping the Canadian public. Anyway, back to the maple syrup cookies...
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    Patrick said:

    HYUFD said:

    tessyc Indeed Wales only backed devolution in 1999 by 50.3% to 49.7% and there are more Tory MPs in Wales than in inner London or the North East of England. Wales and England were one kingdom centuries before Scotland joined the union

    1536 to 1707 wasn't "centuries", 171 years.
    Surely more than 1.0 makes it plural?
    surely more than 1 makes it infinite?
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    "... possible bizarre consequences ..."

    I have already said that Quebec will go, if Scotland shows the way.

    That splits Canada into two, a rich West (Ontario and the Oil) and a poor impoverished East (the maritimes, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia), physically divided and split off from the rest of Canada by an independent Quebec.

    What is the future for the poor maritimes?

    My guess is the 51st, 52nd and 53rd states of the Union.
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    SeanT said:

    Given that we are contemplating a political revolution, and the death of our country, we might as well have some fun and think up some possible bizarre consequences, which now come into play.

    I was driving my daughter through the streets of FUK's capital, just now, and I had this idea.

    Suppose I'm right and Cameron resigns (I am right, btw) following a YES.

    What if the next guy is Hammond, an apparently pukka eurosceptic?

    What is to stop Hammond forging an electoral pact with Farage? Nothing, as far as I can see. This new Coalition would presumably romp home in 2015 against a demoralised party led by Ed "couldn't even save Govan" Miliband, and lacking dozens of Labour MPs from Scotland, booted out by smirking Nats.

    So we could see a very eurosceptic Tory-UKIP government in 2015, running FUK. And gunning for Scotland, and aiming to quit the EU.

    We live in VERY interesting times.

    It's quite likely that Hammond was the unnamed cabinet minister that told the Guardian that 'of course there'll be a currency union'.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    edited September 2014
    Mr. Cwsc [that's a Scrabbletastic username, incidentally], would the US want some poorer states?

    Edited extra bits: other separatists include the Catalans and Venice [and its environs].
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,804
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

    If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

    There will not and can not be any change in the "No" offering, they've nailed their colours to the mast and argued their case for the past 3 years. To blink now and offer more would be fatal. It'd be an admission of impending defeat. They can't take a step back.

    Their only chance it to stand firm and hope for the best.
    Er, Osborne has just been on The Telly saying there will be a new offering next week. Ditto Brown.

    It probably won't work - but they are definitely cooking up something.
    What happened to the requirement to respect the official 'purdah' during the official campaign?

    (Statutory for Scottish ministers and local bodies under the Scottish Referendum Act, matched by Cameron in the Edinburgh Agreement)
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    sarissa said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

    If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

    There will not and can not be any change in the "No" offering, they've nailed their colours to the mast and argued their case for the past 3 years. To blink now and offer more would be fatal. It'd be an admission of impending defeat. They can't take a step back.

    Their only chance it to stand firm and hope for the best.
    Er, Osborne has just been on The Telly saying there will be a new offering next week. Ditto Brown.

    It probably won't work - but they are definitely cooking up something.
    What happened to the requirement to respect the official 'purdah' during the official campaign?

    (Statutory for Scottish ministers and local bodies under the Scottish Referendum Act, matched by Cameron in the Edinburgh Agreement)
    Particularly after 10s if not 100s of thousands of postal voters have voted. What prospectus did they cast their votes upon?
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    SeanT said:

    Given that we are contemplating a political revolution, and the death of our country, we might as well have some fun and think up some possible bizarre consequences, which now come into play.

    I was driving my daughter through the streets of FUK's capital, just now, and I had this idea.

    Suppose I'm right and Cameron resigns (I am right, btw) following a YES.

    What if the next guy is Hammond, an apparently pukka eurosceptic?

    What is to stop Hammond forging an electoral pact with Farage? Nothing, as far as I can see. This new Coalition would presumably romp home in 2015 against a demoralised party led by Ed "couldn't even save Govan" Miliband, and lacking dozens of Labour MPs from Scotland, booted out by smirking Nats.

    So we could see a very eurosceptic Tory-UKIP government in 2015, running FUK. And gunning for Scotland, and aiming to quit the EU.

    We live in VERY interesting times.

    It's quite likely that Hammond was the unnamed cabinet minister that told the Guardian that 'of course there'll be a currency union'.
    It's very likely that ThUD is full of it.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,804

    Orange Order march to "save the Union" starts at the Meadows, Edinburgh, on Saturday at 11am, marching to St Andrew's House.

    That'll do wonders for Alistair Darling's shit creek efforts. An orange paddle was not high on his wish-list.

    I'm tempted to go and stand by the roadside - just so I can turn my back as the procession passes.
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721

    "... possible bizarre consequences ..."

    I have already said that Quebec will go, if Scotland shows the way.

    That splits Canada into two, a rich West (Ontario and the Oil) and a poor impoverished East (the maritimes, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia), physically divided and split off from the rest of Canada by an independent Quebec.

    What is the future for the poor maritimes?

    My guess is the 51st, 52nd and 53rd states of the Union.

    And PEI?
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    F1: post-race analysis up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/italy-post-race-analysis.html

    Red race. Slightly annoyed. First race since Austria in June both Lotuses had a trouble-free race.
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    AndyJS said:

    Jim Dobbin MP has sadly died at the age of 73:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29100304

    His constituency was Heywood & Middleton, next door to Rochdale.

    Does anyone die happily?

    John Entwhistle had a go at it.
    LOL
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    SeanT But surely it would be selfish of Labour to do anything to keep their Scottish MPs, so on that basis your theory can still hold!
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    Imagine being a Unionist and relying on Cameron, Osborne, Miliband, and the like.
    No more powers,no wait some powers, ok how about DevoMax?
    And this lot is your choice in 2015.
    Rule Britannia.
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    So are we basically in a position where, to avoid a Yes vote, DevoMax is being offered without it being voted for in a referendum. The referendum then becomes more like what was asked in Crimea, no no status quo option on the ballot.

    The first minister is on the news here as I type...
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    Mr. Rentool, we don't know for certain what will be offered (that'll be next week). If it's simply more power for Holyrood that's unacceptable complacency where England is concerned.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Itajai said:

    "... possible bizarre consequences ..."

    I have already said that Quebec will go, if Scotland shows the way.

    That splits Canada into two, a rich West (Ontario and the Oil) and a poor impoverished East (the maritimes, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia), physically divided and split off from the rest of Canada by an independent Quebec.

    What is the future for the poor maritimes?

    My guess is the 51st, 52nd and 53rd states of the Union.

    And PEI?
    Newfoundland only became part of Canada in 1947, it and the maratimes could just go back to being that Dominion, though I expect that they would remain part of Canada. All of these places are distinct from the USA and have distinctive histories, with a significant number of descendants from Loyalists who left the newly independent USA.

    It is also unclear whether Catalonia will vote for independence in November. Mostly they want increased autonomy, as per the Basque country.
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    MD - but the point remains that the status quo is not on offer. It would have been if Cammo had accepted a 2-question referendum.
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    SeanT said:

    For the many doubters, this is just one reason why Cammo would Do The Decent Thing after a No.

    "THE Queen has “a great deal of concern” that Scotland will vote for independence and is receiving daily updates on the situation, The Sunday Times can reveal. Palace aides, ministers and MPs close to the royal family said the Queen was a firm unionist and revealed that the prospect of a “yes” vote “horrifies” her household."

    Imagine his audiences with the Q after the 18th. Psychologically intolerable. He would resign for that reason alone.

    Imagine his meetings with foreign leaders: "Tell us about how you were appointed the PM of the UK and then allowed it to break apart after 300 years Dave ..." . Internationally and domestically he will be a severely diminished, humiliated figure. And what a weight to bear. The PM who lost the Union. Too much; much too much.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    For the many doubters, this is just one reason why Cammo would Do The Decent Thing after a No.

    "THE Queen has “a great deal of concern” that Scotland will vote for independence and is receiving daily updates on the situation, The Sunday Times can reveal. Palace aides, ministers and MPs close to the royal family said the Queen was a firm unionist and revealed that the prospect of a “yes” vote “horrifies” her household."

    Imagine his audiences with the Q after the 18th. Psychologically intolerable. He would resign for that reason alone.

    The Queen will be Queen of Scotland whichever way it goes. She is also used to tolerating the unacceptable, after all she has had Cherie Booth as a house guest and Mugabe for dinner. She can sit it out until after May 2015. She can then enjoy tea with the lovely Ed.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    SeanT said:

    For the many doubters, this is just one reason why Cammo would Do The Decent Thing after a No.

    "THE Queen has “a great deal of concern” that Scotland will vote for independence and is receiving daily updates on the situation, The Sunday Times can reveal. Palace aides, ministers and MPs close to the royal family said the Queen was a firm unionist and revealed that the prospect of a “yes” vote “horrifies” her household."

    Imagine his audiences with the Q after the 18th. Psychologically intolerable. He would resign for that reason alone.

    The Queen will be Queen of Scotland whichever way it goes. She is also used to tolerating the unacceptable, after all she has had Cherie Booth as a house guest and Mugabe for dinner. She can sit it out until after May 2015. She can then enjoy tea with the lovely Ed.
    Queen of Scots.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,140
    SeanT said:

    sarissa said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

    If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

    There will not and can not be any change in the "No" offering, they've nailed their colours to the mast and argued their case for the past 3 years. To blink now and offer more would be fatal. It'd be an admission of impending defeat. They can't take a step back.

    Their only chance it to stand firm and hope for the best.
    Er, Osborne has just been on The Telly saying there will be a new offering next week. Ditto Brown.

    It probably won't work - but they are definitely cooking up something.
    What happened to the requirement to respect the official 'purdah' during the official campaign?

    (Statutory for Scottish ministers and local bodies under the Scottish Referendum Act, matched by Cameron in the Edinburgh Agreement)
    Particularly after 10s if not 100s of thousands of postal voters have voted. What prospectus did they cast their votes upon?
    I imagine the FUK government will invite you to sue them, after the referendum. If you win the vote you'll have no chance in the courts, if you lose, HMG of FUK won't care.
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/all-over-the-place/#more-61368 has more detail on the purdah issue - including the relevant texts - and notes that the No campaign were very keen to use the purdah argument as a justification for not having a second replay of the Salmond vs Darling debate, how shocking to have the debate after postal vting has begun, etc. etc.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    For the many doubters, this is just one reason why Cammo would Do The Decent Thing after a No.

    "THE Queen has “a great deal of concern” that Scotland will vote for independence and is receiving daily updates on the situation, The Sunday Times can reveal. Palace aides, ministers and MPs close to the royal family said the Queen was a firm unionist and revealed that the prospect of a “yes” vote “horrifies” her household."

    Imagine his audiences with the Q after the 18th. Psychologically intolerable. He would resign for that reason alone.

    Incidentally the betfair exchange leaders market has some interesting odds (though not much liquidity) on who will be in place at the next election, including 100 on none of them, and 30 on Ed on his own. Laying all 3 being in place is 1.46. DYOR...
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MD - but the point remains that the status quo is not on offer. It would have been if Cammo had accepted a 2-question referendum.

    A two question referendum was never on the table. In the referendum consultation perofmed by the Scottish government a clear majority (60%+) wanted a single Yes-No question on the ballot paper.

    Salmond never went into the negotiations wanting a 3 answer ballot, this is one of the biggest myths of the entire referendum process.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    If voting "YES" will cause Dave so much discomfort, I may have to reappraise my voting intention.
This discussion has been closed.