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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember it was the YouGov polling panel that most exaggerated the last “political earthquake” – the Cleggasm in April 2010

The big problem we have with last night’s IndyRef polling sensation from YouGov is that so far it has not been supported by other firms. Panelbase, which traditionally has shown YES in its most favourable position came out with no change from from its mid-August IndyRef poll – a 4% lead.

Read the full story here

Freggles

Very sensible, Mike. Let's just hope the result isn't so close that we get a recount.

Stuart_Dickson

Ladbrokes have stopped taking bets on Yes getting more than 55% of the vote.

Stuart_Dickson

IndyRef - best prices

Yes 9/4 (StanJames)
No 4/9 (various)

Jonathan

The electorate have been trying to find a viable non LAB CON option for about 5 years. The LDs briefly fitted the bill and then blew it. In Scotland they settled on the SNP. In England, UKIP are currently in the frame. But the trend is pretty clear.

Stuart_Dickson

Both Paddy Power and Shadsy have suspended their line markets on the Yes vote %

However, both SkyBet and Hills have launched new line markets:

SkyBet - Yes vote %

Under 47.5% 4/5
Over 47.5% 10/11

William Hill - Yes vote %

47% and over 5/6
Under 47% 5/6

Stuart_Dickson

Liquidity on Betfair's IndyRef voter turnout market is fast improving

Turnout of 75%+ is currently at 1/3

NickPalmer

I think MikeL was right on the last thread - on the balance of evidence, No is probably still narrowly ahead at this moment, but it's possible that the YG poll will change that by triggering a sense of momentum. Certainly I bet it gets more coverage than the Panelbase poll, because it makes a better story.

But does "momentum" really work like that? Why didn't the Cleggasm lead to a further leap in LibDem support, instead of subsiding? That's different from Salmond's Holyrood victory, which was based on a clear late change in voting intentions not based on much prior evidence.

YG otherwise not very exciting - Labour 2 points ahead in Britain and 1 point ahead in England and Wales. A generally more affable sample than most - people think better of Cameron (up 3 net), Miliband (up 3), the government, the economy, intervention in Iraq and almost everything else. The only exception is mild disapproval of British handling of the Iraq crisis - people think Obama has handled it well, but 43-35 don't think the same of Cameron.

Freggles

Jonathan said:

The electorate have been tthink there'srying to find a viable non LAB CON option for about 5 years. The LDs briefly fitted the bill and then blew it. In Scotland they settled on the SNP. In England, UKIP are currently in the frame. But the trend is pretty clear.

To an extent. There will be a few people on both bandwagons, but I think there's a subset of LDs who wouldn't ever vote UKIP and vice versa. This is why for me there's a limit, probably in the 20-30% range, on how high UKIP can go: if they become too appealing to women and metropolitan voters they will lose their core Grumpy Man vote.

CarlottaVance

Amid yesterday's hysteria, this I thought a balanced analysis:

So does tonight's poll mean that Yes are 'really' in the lead? Not necessarily. Even before you take account of methodological mistakes that a pollster might be making, and also the fact that pollsters can't legislate (or not without difficulty) for respondents sometimes lying to them, there's a standard 3% margin of error that applies to every poll because of normal sampling variation. So tonight's result is still consistent with No having a modest lead, and because of the almost unbelievable scale of the swing YouGov have reported over the last few weeks, you'd have to assume that's actually the most likely scenario.

A return to form from a blogger who had recently got bogged down a tad in methodogy...

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, my fellow Britons.

F1: pre-race piece, including a tip, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/italy-pre-race.html

If No wins, can we have a Salmond = Clegg thread?

TheWatcher

Will Huttons thoughts -

'If Britain can't find a way of sticking together, it is the death of the liberal enlightenment before the atavistic forces of nationalism and ethnicity'

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/06/will-hutton-10-days-to-save-the-union-scottish-independence

What's the downside?

Sean_F

I can remember my shock and depression at the Cleggasm, similar to the depression I felt last night (partly alleviated by Panelbase). Let's hope OGH is right.

O/T I see Matthew Parris' article on Clacton is being roasted.

malcolmg

NickPalmer said:

I think MikeL was right on the last thread - on the balance of evidence, No is probably still narrowly ahead at this moment, but it's possible that the YG poll will change that by triggering a sense of momentum. Certainly I bet it gets more coverage than the Panelbase poll, because it makes a better story.

But does "momentum" really work like that? Why didn't the Cleggasm lead to a further leap in LibDem support, instead of subsiding? That's different from Salmond's Holyrood victory, which was based on a clear late change in voting intentions not based on much prior evidence.

YG otherwise not very exciting - Labour 2 points ahead in Britain and 1 point ahead in England and Wales. A generally more affable sample than most - people think better of Cameron (up 3 net), Miliband (up 3), the government, the economy, intervention in Iraq and almost everything else. The only exception is mild disapproval of British handling of the Iraq crisis - people think Obama has handled it well, but 43-35 don't think the same of Cameron.

Fantasy, given it is certain they are underestimating YES , it is beginning to look bad for BT, led by donkeys and doomed.

[Deleted User]

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

Amid yesterday's hysteria, this I thought a balanced analysis:

So does tonight's poll mean that Yes are 'really' in the lead? Not necessarily. Even before you take account of methodological mistakes that a pollster might be making, and also the fact that pollsters can't legislate (or not without difficulty) for respondents sometimes lying to them, there's a standard 3% margin of error that applies to every poll because of normal sampling variation. So tonight's result is still consistent with No having a modest lead, and because of the almost unbelievable scale of the swing YouGov have reported over the last few weeks, you'd have to assume that's actually the most likely scenario.

A return to form from a blogger who had recently got bogged down a tad in methodogy...

I note you are not deriding James any longer , but closely following his blog.

malcolmg

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

Patrick, I would suggest getting a Macsweens haggis if you can , might as well be a tasty one. Also get a real turnip , none of that white swede stuff.

Roger

Wouldn't a +22 to -1 suggest almost a quarter of Scots have changed their mind in a month?

In the absence of a major game changing event which there hasn't been suggests;

1. we are in the middle of a tidal wave of people switching to YES with no indication it's over in which case YES are headed for a massive victory.

OR

2. YouGov have screwed up on a colossal scale either now or in its earlier polls.

[Deleted User]

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

Patrick, I would suggest getting a Macsweens haggis if you can , might as well be a tasty one. Also get a real turnip , none of that white swede stuff.

Aye aye cap'n!

Sean_F

Roger said:

Wouldn't a +22 to -1 suggest almost a quarter of Scots have changed their mind in a month?

In the absence of a major game changing event which there hasn't been suggests;

1. we are in the middle of a tidal wave of people switching to YES with no indication it's over in which case YES are headed for a massive victory.

OR

2. YouGov have screwed up on a colossal scale either now or in its earlier polls.

Agreed.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Patrick, a Yes would not mean English independence, as it were. Still Wales and Northern Ireland. The latter might change, I can't see Wales going anywhere (just basic economics. Wales has 3% of the UK's population and 2% of the wealth. Independence for it would mean living standards nose-diving).

TheWatcher

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

It will be interesting to see which large financial institutions begin to quietly set the relocation ball rolling over the next week or so. The big pension providers spring to mind.

Oh look, they already have. England's gain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26364418

[Deleted User]

Mr Wifflestick

Indeed. Wales has no oil, whisky, financial services or anything too much to crow about. They are hugely more in deficit (taxes contributed vs public spending received) than Scotland. And look how good they are at managing their own schools n hospitals. An independent lefty Wales would not circle the bowl as it descended into hell - it would be a dive off a cliff.

But if they want it and resent the English so much - I'm game.

DavidL

Roger said:

Wouldn't a +22 to -1 suggest almost a quarter of Scots have changed their mind in a month?

In the absence of a major game changing event which there hasn't been suggests;

1. we are in the middle of a tidal wave of people switching to YES with no indication it's over in which case YES are headed for a massive victory.

OR

2. YouGov have screwed up on a colossal scale either now or in its earlier polls.

Quite. It is worth revisiting this piece of wit and wisdom from July from Mr Kelner:
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/07/01/why-do-polls-scotland-vary-so-much/

At that time he said:

"The test for us all will come in September. Meanwhile, what can we conclude about the state of the referendum campaign? This blog has necessarily been longer and more technical than normal. However, my conclusion is simple. A number of recent polls have produced widely-reported stories that the contest is close. They are wrong. It isn’t. The No campaign is well ahead. Its lead has held up for some months. Unless things change markedly in the next eleven weeks, Scotland will vote to remain in the United Kingdom, and by a decisive enough margin to settle the matter for many years to come."


And now, in the last couple of weeks really, we supposedly have an enormous movement that other pollsters are not finding a hint of. FWIW my canvassing has indicated that there are comparatively few people who have not made up their minds and that very few indeed, if any, are changing their position.

There are legitimate concerns about differential turnout and canvassing effort is really focussed on finding the no voters and urging on them the importance of voting. I just don't believe that there has been the sort of change the last 2 Yougovs have shown. But then I didn't really believe them when Kelner was pretty much saying it was all over in July either.

Jonathan

Roger said:

Wouldn't a +22 to -1 suggest almost a quarter of Scots have changed their mind in a month?

In the absence of a major game changing event which there hasn't been suggests;

1. we are in the middle of a tidal wave of people switching to YES with no indication it's over in which case YES are headed for a massive victory.

OR

2. YouGov have screwed up on a colossal scale either now or in its earlier polls.

Isn't that actually a 10 percent swing overall from No to Yes?

And aren't there two events...

1 the fact the referendum is near so people are making their minds up and the polls are becoming meaningful.
2 the debates

alex

Roger said:

Wouldn't a +22 to -1 suggest almost a quarter of Scots have changed their mind in a month?

No. 11% (and excluding the effect of "undecideds" making up their mind, rather than changing their mind).

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

It will be interesting to see which large financial institutions begin to quietly set the relocation ball rolling over the next week or so. The big pension providers spring to mind.

Oh look, they already have. England's gain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26364418

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

asjohnstone

This poll lends credibility to Yes, it will help them drive turn out. It's probably, very close, turn out and gotv will be key.

I think the "yes" camp is more motivated and will have many more boots on the ground on the day. Gut still says "no", but have realised that after 9 years out of Scotland I no longer have a feel for the public mood.

People I have known all my life that I would have had down as certain "no" voters are strongly "yes", it's outside of normal context.

Coin flip really

malcolmg

asjohnstone said:

This poll lends credibility to Yes, it will help them drive turn out. It's probably, very close, turn out and gotv will be key.

I think the "yes" camp is more motivated and will have many more boots on the ground on the day. Gut still says "no", but have realised that after 9 years out of Scotland I no longer have a feel for the public mood.

People I have known all my life that I would have had down as certain "no" voters are strongly "yes", it's outside of normal context.

Coin flip really

AS, up here it certainly feels like a YES, whether imaginary or not it just does not look or feel that it could be NO. Darling the supposed great leader has not been seen since his drubbing , Blair McDougall who was always bleating and tweeting , disappeared. Milliband in deepest labour territory in Coatbridge , gets off a luxury coach with his sychophants and people were telling him to F*** off. Lamont in Govan could only get answer at 3 doors and none supportive.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Amid yesterday's hysteria, this I thought a balanced analysis:

So does tonight's poll mean that Yes are 'really' in the lead? Not necessarily. Even before you take account of methodological mistakes that a pollster might be making, and also the fact that pollsters can't legislate (or not without difficulty) for respondents sometimes lying to them, there's a standard 3% margin of error that applies to every poll because of normal sampling variation. So tonight's result is still consistent with No having a modest lead, and because of the almost unbelievable scale of the swing YouGov have reported over the last few weeks, you'd have to assume that's actually the most likely scenario.

A return to form from a blogger who had recently got bogged down a tad in methodogy...

I note you are not deriding James any longer , but closely following his blog.

Surely he's a turnip - suggesting No still in the lead?

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

It will be interesting to see which large financial institutions begin to quietly set the relocation ball rolling over the next week or so. The big pension providers spring to mind.

Oh look, they already have. England's gain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26364418

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

[Deleted User]

Massive move or polling screw up?

Hmm.....pollsters like to weight raw numbers. Based on prior experience - and so usually party allegiance, likelihood to vote, etc. But with an independence referendum they have no prior experience. Maybe the raw numbers are the answer!

peter_from_putney

For those who missed the brief reference thereto on the previous thread, the YouGov/Sunday Times Westminster VI poll dated 5 Sept showed the following:

Con 33%, Lab 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Amid yesterday's hysteria, this I thought a balanced analysis:

So does tonight's poll mean that Yes are 'really' in the lead? Not necessarily. Even before you take account of methodological mistakes that a pollster might be making, and also the fact that pollsters can't legislate (or not without difficulty) for respondents sometimes lying to them, there's a standard 3% margin of error that applies to every poll because of normal sampling variation. So tonight's result is still consistent with No having a modest lead, and because of the almost unbelievable scale of the swing YouGov have reported over the last few weeks, you'd have to assume that's actually the most likely scenario.

A return to form from a blogger who had recently got bogged down a tad in methodogy...

I note you are not deriding James any longer , but closely following his blog.

Surely he's a turnip - suggesting No still in the lead?

He is fairly astute and has been all along. Turnips on here laughed and derided him and mocked his looks, tonsorial appearance etc. It appears he will have the last laugh.

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

It will be interesting to see which large financial institutions begin to quietly set the relocation ball rolling over the next week or so. The big pension providers spring to mind.

Oh look, they already have. England's gain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26364418

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

Can you name one moving south , other than in your fevered imagination.
Imagine George and chums are preparing their "get out of jail" on CU plan about now.
How will they present it as not a CU when it really is. Will it be deployed this week or will they manage to get to the following week when news will be worse.

[Deleted User]

The visceral negative reaction to Milibande in his 'heartlands' is fascinating. Leaves me wondering how Labour can best keep him off the telly in May. He is still Dave's secret weapon (or Nigel's).

Carnyx

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.

There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?

I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.

In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

Stuart_Dickson

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Amid yesterday's hysteria, this I thought a balanced analysis:

So does tonight's poll mean that Yes are 'really' in the lead? Not necessarily. Even before you take account of methodological mistakes that a pollster might be making, and also the fact that pollsters can't legislate (or not without difficulty) for respondents sometimes lying to them, there's a standard 3% margin of error that applies to every poll because of normal sampling variation. So tonight's result is still consistent with No having a modest lead, and because of the almost unbelievable scale of the swing YouGov have reported over the last few weeks, you'd have to assume that's actually the most likely scenario.

A return to form from a blogger who had recently got bogged down a tad in methodogy...

I note you are not deriding James any longer , but closely following his blog.

Surely he's a turnip - suggesting No still in the lead?

He is fairly astute and has been all along. Turnips on here laughed and derided him and mocked his looks, tonsorial appearance etc. It appears he will have the last laugh.

Blocking James Kelly was a catastrophe for serious punters around here. With his insight they would have made a total killing.

In exchange they got.. Plato. Nuff said.

malcolmg

Carnyx said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.

There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?

I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.

In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories.

BannedInParis

Saw the heights without clocking the colours. Momentarily confused.

John_M

Stuart_Dickson said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Amid yesterday's hysteria, this I thought a balanced analysis:

So does tonight's poll mean that Yes are 'really' in the lead? Not necessarily. Even before you take account of methodological mistakes that a pollster might be making, and also the fact that pollsters can't legislate (or not without difficulty) for respondents sometimes lying to them, there's a standard 3% margin of error that applies to every poll because of normal sampling variation. So tonight's result is still consistent with No having a modest lead, and because of the almost unbelievable scale of the swing YouGov have reported over the last few weeks, you'd have to assume that's actually the most likely scenario.

A return to form from a blogger who had recently got bogged down a tad in methodogy...

I note you are not deriding James any longer , but closely following his blog.

Surely he's a turnip - suggesting No still in the lead?

He is fairly astute and has been all along. Turnips on here laughed and derided him and mocked his looks, tonsorial appearance etc. It appears he will have the last laugh.

Blocking James Kelly was a catastrophe for serious punters around here. With his insight they would have made a total killing.

In exchange they got.. Plato. Nuff said.

Christ, you really are an unpleasant human being. Roll on independence.

malcolmg

Stuart_Dickson said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Amid yesterday's hysteria, this I thought a balanced analysis:

So does tonight's poll mean that Yes are 'really' in the lead? Not necessarily. Even before you take account of methodological mistakes that a pollster might be making, and also the fact that pollsters can't legislate (or not without difficulty) for respondents sometimes lying to them, there's a standard 3% margin of error that applies to every poll because of normal sampling variation. So tonight's result is still consistent with No having a modest lead, and because of the almost unbelievable scale of the swing YouGov have reported over the last few weeks, you'd have to assume that's actually the most likely scenario.

A return to form from a blogger who had recently got bogged down a tad in methodogy...

I note you are not deriding James any longer , but closely following his blog.

Surely he's a turnip - suggesting No still in the lead?

He is fairly astute and has been all along. Turnips on here laughed and derided him and mocked his looks, tonsorial appearance etc. It appears he will have the last laugh.

Blocking James Kelly was a catastrophe for serious punters around here. With his insight they would have made a total killing.

In exchange they got.. Plato. Nuff said.

The pathetic mocking and deriding of him on here has been horrible to watch, some posters on here should be ashamed of themselves. As I said , he will have the last laugh.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dickson, nothing wrong with Miss Plato, and that unnecessary mention rather detracts from your suggestion regarding Mr. Kelly.

Stereotomy

Yesterday's hysteria seems to have worn off a little

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

It will be interesting to see which large financial institutions begin to quietly set the relocation ball rolling over the next week or so. The big pension providers spring to mind.

Oh look, they already have. England's gain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26364418

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

Can you name one moving south , other than in your fevered imagination.
Imagine George and chums are preparing their "get out of jail" on CU plan about now.
How will they present it as not a CU when it really is. Will it be deployed this week or will they manage to get to the following week when news will be worse.

I've seen plenty of media reports about ones making contingency plans to relocate south, but where are the ones moving north?

Resorting to insult and abuse in response to a genuine question, would indicate a lack of credible information on your part.

Don't forget. I'm all for separation, and was disappointed that we were not given a vote too.

welshowl

Patrick said:

Mr Wifflestick

Indeed. Wales has no oil, whisky, financial services or anything too much to crow about. They are hugely more in deficit (taxes contributed vs public spending received) than Scotland. And look how good they are at managing their own schools n hospitals. An independent lefty Wales would not circle the bowl as it descended into hell - it would be a dive off a cliff.

But if they want it and resent the English so much - I'm game.

No indication from my Cardiffian world that Wales is going anywhere. Yet to come across anyone thinking independence is remotely a good idea, not that it's even a topic brought up at all often really. The economics really is crushing. Essentially Cardiff (with a fair whack of public sector jobs subsidised by London), Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan are about UK GDP per capita average I'd think, the rest well below. Some bits are probably Portugal/Greece levels.

As you say, it wouldn't bother circling the drain before going down the tubes.

Stuart_Dickson

peter_from_putney said:

For those who missed the brief reference thereto on the previous thread, the YouGov/Sunday Times Westminster VI poll dated 5 Sept showed the following:

Con 33%, Lab 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%

Usual caveats apply.

YouGov/Sunday Times
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size = 219
Fieldwork: 4th - 5th September 2014
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

SNP 35% (+15)
Lab 31% (-11)
Con 21% (+4)
LD 7% (-12)
Grn 5% (+4)
UKIP 3% (+2)

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e6yfutr1ad/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140905.pdf

Baxtered:

Lab 27 seats (-14 seats)
SNP 25 seats (+19 seats)
Con 5 seats (+4 seats)
LD 2 seats (-9 seats)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=21&LAB=31&LIB=7&NAT=35&region=AllScotland&boundary=2010&seat=All+Scotland+seats+majority-sorted

malcolmg

This is a low even by BT standards...........
http://www.sundaypost.com/news-views/scotland/isis-targeted-scot-to-force-a-yes-vote-in-referendum-1.562793

TheWatcher

welshowl said:

Patrick said:

Mr Wifflestick

Indeed. Wales has no oil, whisky, financial services or anything too much to crow about. They are hugely more in deficit (taxes contributed vs public spending received) than Scotland. And look how good they are at managing their own schools n hospitals. An independent lefty Wales would not circle the bowl as it descended into hell - it would be a dive off a cliff.

But if they want it and resent the English so much - I'm game.

No indication from my Cardiffian world that Wales is going anywhere. Yet to come across anyone thinking independence is remotely a good idea, not that it's even a topic brought up at all often really. The economics really is crushing. Essentially Cardiff (with a fair whack of public sector jobs subsidised by London), Monmouthshire and the Vale of Glamorgan are about UK GDP per capita average I'd think, the rest well below. Some bits are probably Portugal/Greece levels.

As you say, it wouldn't bother circling the drain before going down the tubes.

Looks as if we need to encourage Scottish businesses shifting southerly, to relocate to the principality.

MonikerDiCanio

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.

There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?

I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.

In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories.

So why didn't four out of six SNP MPs show up at their place of work to vote against this "iniquitous and evil policy"? Lazy frauds.

Innocent_Abroad

Patrick said:

Massive move or polling screw up?

Hmm.....pollsters like to weight raw numbers. Based on prior experience - and so usually party allegiance, likelihood to vote, etc. But with an independence referendum they have no prior experience. Maybe the raw numbers are the answer!

That's a very good point.

Suppose there has been a small - but sufficient swing to "yes" in the last few days. Why should this be? The arguments, whether sentimental or hard-hearted, haven't changed.

It may be that those who decided way back not to make up their minds before they needed to - a perfectly rational position in itself, one I've put myself to both pollsters & partisan canvassers before to-day - have been swayed by the passion in the "yes" camp, and a sense that there will be far more resentment in the country if "no" wins than if "yes" does.

So the screaming and abuse may yet be seen to have paid off. If Scotland does vote "yes" after all who will have supplied the clinching argument?

Step forward, Malcom G.! Scotland's greatest patriot since Robert the Bruce!

Stuart_Dickson

SeanT said:

It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

My guess is, given the sorry handling of Devolution and Indyref by both Labour and Tories, that it will be the latter. Incidentally a bit of research shows that it was Osborne, the "near perfect" chancellor, who ruled out Devomax. Which they are now offering, too late, and in extremis.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/15/nick-clegg-scottish-people-referendum-ballot

Nonetheless Cameron must take the blame. And he will. He will resign following a YES, as I might have previously mentioned.

And George Osborne's infamous trip to Aberdeen was the turning point in the IndyRef campaign. The man deserves a medal.

TGOHF

Patrick said:

Massive move or polling screw up?

Hmm.....pollsters like to weight raw numbers. Based on prior experience - and so usually party allegiance, likelihood to vote, etc. But with an independence referendum they have no prior experience. Maybe the raw numbers are the answer!

Don't underestimate new voter registrations.

I know for a fact that the finance director of one major Scottish City is rubbing his hands at the amount of cancellations of single occupant discount that will be cancelled for council tax purposes now the electoral register has expanded very quickly of late.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. T, the federalism offer will be interesting to see.

Powers for Scotland are, ironically, the easiest to see being down right. It's fairness for England that's less likely, I fear.

Any change to Wales will also be interesting but, as mentioned below, only an innumerate Welshman would support independence.

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

Can you name one moving south , other than in your fevered imagination.
Imagine George and chums are preparing their "get out of jail" on CU plan about now.
How will they present it as not a CU when it really is. Will it be deployed this week or will they manage to get to the following week when news will be worse.

I've seen plenty of media reports about ones making contingency plans to relocate south, but where are the ones moving north?

Resorting to insult and abuse in response to a genuine question, would indicate a lack of credible information on your part.

Don't forget. I'm all for separation, and was disappointed that we were not given a vote too.

That is a bit pot and kettle. You have seen reports from tame unionists, we have seen armed guards at the border by Millimad, etc etc.
Hysterical stupidity and I post in same fashion as people do to me. If you cared to look I post very civilly with those who are of the same ilk.
If you care to be civil I will return the favour. you wish for independence for Scotland will be granted as well.
I for one hope it happens and that we remain the close partners we have been for 300 years and that there is no animosity as suggested from south of the border. I hope they will act like adults and we will all get along.

Roger

"The pathetic mocking and deriding of him on here has been horrible to watch"

He's certainly been missed. He was undoubtedly one of the brightest and best Nat posters. Can't he be persuaded back for the next two weeks?

FluffyThoughts

malcolmg said:

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Says the clown who demands that a foreign government should pay his pension post independence. No debt means no assets: 'Wee Eck' is a peronist and your pension is toast.

:muppet-watch:

TGOHF

SeanT said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

But joyous frabjous day! Whatever happens we're going to be seeing either a more federal UK or its equivalent in an England shorn of Scotland. Barnett, WLQ, EV4EL - all those constitutional anomalies will need to get addressed now even if we scrape a NO..

For all the 'woe is me, my country oh my country' stuff - which the Brit in me agrees with - there is also the deep thrill of potential freedom at last for the Englishman in me. That and the impact of 59 less lefty effwit MPs in Westminster.

So I'll buy my popcorn and watch the productive bits of Scotland migrate south over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

It will be interesting to see which large financial institutions begin to quietly set the relocation ball rolling over the next week or so. The big pension providers spring to mind.

Oh look, they already have. England's gain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26364418

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

Can you name one moving south , other than in your fevered imagination.
Imagine George and chums are preparing their "get out of jail" on CU plan about now.
How will they present it as not a CU when it really is. Will it be deployed this week or will they manage to get to the following week when news will be worse.

There will be a run on the £, starting Monday. Possibly the stock market will tank as well. It'll be interesting to see how this affects the debate up north. I wonder if Scots are now in such a bolshy mood they just won't care. Quite possibly.

What will not happen is an offer of currency union. As the bitterness increases this becomes politically evermore unfeasible. There is already anger down here. You may not sense it, because you are up there. I'm hearing LEFTY friends cursing the Scots.

The only CU on offer will be offered with such severe restrictions on yr independence you will be unable to accept it.

Money will continue to leave Scottish registered financial institutions on Monday - to the safety of London.

OldKingCole

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.

There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?

I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.

In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories.

I suspect from conversations that it’s one of those policies which seems OK until you actually come face to face with a sad (or hard) case. Not paying JSA to people who don’t turn up daily at Jobcentres sounds OK, until you come across claimants who live a £5 bus-ride from a Centre!

NickPalmer

Carnyx said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

It's one of the few issues that people on the doorstep mention spontaneously (and negatively), usually because they personally or someone in their family has been affected - I'm only talking of say 2% of voters, but that compares with maybe 0.1% who mention Rotherham or ISIS or top rate tax or the deficit (most people on the doorstep don't talk about issues at all). Because it's a simple issue where the issue is clear, people feel able to take a view in a way that they don't over, say, the deficit.

To be honest it has less political resonance than it might because almost without exception, people who are angry about it aren't aware that Labour has promised to abolish it. When I tell them, they express wary pleasure but look at me dubiously, wondering if I really mean it.

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.

There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?

I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.

In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories.

So why didn't four out of six SNP MPs show up at their place of work to vote against this "iniquitous and evil policy"? Lazy frauds.

Monica, I know how thick you are, it was a PMB that is pointless and does not count for anything , ie a publicity stunt for Lib-dems and labour. The SNP MP's were canvassing for independence where it really will mean that the iniquitous tax that targets the disabled will be gone for good in Scotland.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. G, I've said it for months (maybe years). Any separation will be acrimonious.

There are certain areas, most notably Trident and currency, where the views north and south of the border are simply opposite to one another.

Salmond's divisiveness does not make him well-liked south of the border. He's the face of Yes, and it's perhaps even less liked than Ed Balls'. If Yes wins, the General Election becomes a pissing contest to see who can be toughest on the Scots (which probably helps Osborne a lot).

dyedwoolie

Yes surging, as expected. Once in a generation opportunities hit home late. The now or nevers will pack out the yes vote and see it over the line.
The Union is dead, long live the loose association.

Innocent_Abroad

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

Can you name one moving south , other than in your fevered imagination.
Imagine George and chums are preparing their "get out of jail" on CU plan about now.
How will they present it as not a CU when it really is. Will it be deployed this week or will they manage to get to the following week when news will be worse.

I've seen plenty of media reports about ones making contingency plans to relocate south, but where are the ones moving north?

Resorting to insult and abuse in response to a genuine question, would indicate a lack of credible information on your part.

Don't forget. I'm all for separation, and was disappointed that we were not given a vote too.

That is a bit pot and kettle. You have seen reports from tame unionists, we have seen armed guards at the border by Millimad, etc etc.
Hysterical stupidity and I post in same fashion as people do to me. If you cared to look I post very civilly with those who are of the same ilk.
If you care to be civil I will return the favour. you wish for independence for Scotland will be granted as well.
I for one hope it happens and that we remain the close partners we have been for 300 years and that there is no animosity as suggested from south of the border. I hope they will act like adults and we will all get along.

You might try acting like an adult yourself, and apologising to all the Peebies you've insulted in the last few weeks...

Gadfly

Well, it's a lovely sunny day up north so we've decided to lunch in Scotland, to garner a feel for the mood.

Mrs Gadfly is insisting that we take our passports, just in case we break down.

Stereotomy

SeanT said:

It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

My guess is, given the sorry handling of Devolution and Indyref by both Labour and Tories, that it will be the latter. Incidentally a bit of research shows that it was Osborne, the "near perfect" chancellor, who ruled out Devomax. Which they are now offering, too late, and in extremis.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/15/nick-clegg-scottish-people-referendum-ballot

Nonetheless Cameron must take the blame. And he will. He will resign following a YES, as I might have previously mentioned.

I really feel like you're misreading the situation. If there really has been this huge recent swing, it certainly hasn't been driven by any new information. That means- assuming it's both real and won't dissipate by polling day- it's driven by a combination of emotion and narriative. Offers of federalism won't dent either of those.

edmundintokyo

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I've said it for months (maybe years). Any separation will be acrimonious.

There are certain areas, most notably Trident and currency, where the views north and south of the border are simply opposite to one another.

I won't go into the currency issue as it's been done to death, but on Trident views north and south of the border would be in agreement. Nobody would want to keep it in Scotland.

Theuniondivvie

Stuart_Dickson said:

SeanT said:

It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

My guess is, given the sorry handling of Devolution and Indyref by both Labour and Tories, that it will be the latter. Incidentally a bit of research shows that it was Osborne, the "near perfect" chancellor, who ruled out Devomax. Which they are now offering, too late, and in extremis.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/15/nick-clegg-scottish-people-referendum-ballot

Nonetheless Cameron must take the blame. And he will. He will resign following a YES, as I might have previously mentioned.

And George Osborne's infamous trip to Aberdeen was the turning point in the IndyRef campaign. The man deserves a medal.

Ozzie on Marr this am:

"No ifs, no buts, we will not share the pound."

Good for Yes now, good for the Tories* in the 2015 GE?

*except for viewers in Scotland

dyedwoolie

Of course Scotland is currently going through what rUK will go through on an in/out EU ref. l
Lots of prophecy of doom from the Eurocrats. The Scots aren't going to be told what to do by the Brits, any more than we will be told what to do by the Europeans.

TGOHF

Bananas all round

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1456019.ece

alex

The 55m people in the rest of the UK do not need a currency union with an Independent Scotland. Supporters for Scottish Independence have a seriously exaggerated view of Scotland's financial importance to the UK*. I don't know who MG thinks he is kidding with his constant suggestion that rUK will collapse financially without Scotland. Nor why he seems to wish this to happen since rUK will be by far and away an Independent Scotland's largest export market.

Theuniondivvie

Gadfly said:

just in case we break down.

Sorry to hear emotions are running so high.

FluffyThoughts

Roger said:

"The pathetic mocking and deriding of him on here has been horrible to watch"

He's certainly been missed. He was undoubtedly one of the brightest and best Nat posters. Can't he be persuaded back for the next two weeks?

He chose to leave. OGH asked him to respect his rules and guidance; Wee Jimmie O'Kelly refused. He has only himself to blame....

malcolmg

Innocent_Abroad said:

Patrick said:

Massive move or polling screw up?

Hmm.....pollsters like to weight raw numbers. Based on prior experience - and so usually party allegiance, likelihood to vote, etc. But with an independence referendum they have no prior experience. Maybe the raw numbers are the answer!

That's a very good point.

Suppose there has been a small - but sufficient swing to "yes" in the last few days. Why should this be? The arguments, whether sentimental or hard-hearted, haven't changed.

It may be that those who decided way back not to make up their minds before they needed to - a perfectly rational position in itself, one I've put myself to both pollsters & partisan canvassers before to-day - have been swayed by the passion in the "yes" camp, and a sense that there will be far more resentment in the country if "no" wins than if "yes" does.

So the screaming and abuse may yet be seen to have paid off. If Scotland does vote "yes" after all who will have supplied the clinching argument?

Step forward, Malcom G.! Scotland's greatest patriot since Robert the Bruce!

Many people have always been leaning to YES, they were apprehensive, bit worried etc, not sure of how things would go, fed lies by media. So BT constantly threatening them with dire punishments if they voted YES and the BT lies being shown to be just that by the online web sites and people on the ground , people are firming up and know what they should do and it is YES.
YES started correctly but could not have imagined how it would become organic growth outside the official campaign, huge number of volunteers from all walks of life have become engaged. Meanwhile BT declined almost all invitations to public meetings and preferred to just have closed shops with members.

Gadfly

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

Can you name one moving south , other than in your fevered imagination.
Imagine George and chums are preparing their "get out of jail" on CU plan about now.
How will they present it as not a CU when it really is. Will it be deployed this week or will they manage to get to the following week when news will be worse.

I've seen plenty of media reports about ones making contingency plans to relocate south, but where are the ones moving north?

Resorting to insult and abuse in response to a genuine question, would indicate a lack of credible information on your part.

Don't forget. I'm all for separation, and was disappointed that we were not given a vote too.

I post very civilly with those who are of the same ilk.

Final proof as to how delusional you have become ;-)

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Divvie, long said that yes means (at the 2015 election) it's springtime for the SNP and Conservatives (ahem, on different sides of the border).

Mr. Tokyo, that's true, but the timescale is impossible, as offered by Salmond, and the costs of several billion won't be welcomed by the UK.

OldKingCole

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I've said it for months (maybe years). Any separation will be acrimonious.

There are certain areas, most notably Trident and currency, where the views north and south of the border are simply opposite to one another.

I won't go into the currency issue as it's been done to death, but on Trident views north and south of the border would be in agreement. Nobody would want to keep it in Scotland.

Quite a lot of people don’t want it in England either. Or Wales, come to that.

Morris_Dancer

F1: just a reminder that those wanting to see how we're better together can enjoy the Italian Grand Prix on the BBC this afternoon, featuring English and Scottish commentators, and English and Scottish pundits.

Hoping the Lotuses break down on lap 1.

Ideal result would be Bottas winning, Rosberg second and Massa third.

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.

There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?

I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.

In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories.

I suspect from conversations that it’s one of those policies which seems OK until you actually come face to face with a sad (or hard) case. Not paying JSA to people who don’t turn up daily at Jobcentres sounds OK, until you come across claimants who live a £5 bus-ride from a Centre!

exactly , or taking £20 a week of a disabled person who has a spare room that holds all their medical apparatus and cannot move as they need adapted house etc.
Also the people implementing it have multiple mansions with multiple spare rooms.

TGOHF

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Divvie, long said that yes means (at the 2015 election) it's springtime for the SNP and Conservatives (ahem, on different sides of the border).

Mr. Tokyo, that's true, but the timescale is impossible, as offered by Salmond, and the costs of several billion won't be welcomed by the UK.

In the event of YES I would hope the Cons immediately turn ultra Hawkish on Scotland - not a penny more should be the mantra.

Roger

Malcolm

" Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories."

Labour didn't support the Tories or it wouldn't have been called "The Bedroom Tax" but the hilarious 'Spare Room Subsidy'

FluffyThoughts

dyedwoolie said:

Of course Scotland is currently going through what rUK will go through on an in/out EU ref.

Do you really think that the EU will refuse to share their currency with us? What a disappointment....

Omnium

IScotland could get very unpopular indeed for a while.

Some GBP/USD weakness is being blamed on them already - people have noticed their holidays are more expensive.

If the FTSE sells off then people will realise that their pensions are going to be hurt.

It's not impossible that interest rates will rise annoying mortgage holders.

It's certain that the separation will cost lots of money to organise, and thus more austerity, higher taxes, or both, will be on the cards.

Finally in 2015 if the vote is close the Scottish MPs could foist a Labour government on us when most people have voted Tory.

I hope none of these occur, and the best way to ensure that is for the Scots to vote no.

If they vote yes it could be messy, and I'm pretty sure that they'll want to come back in ten years anyway when they've become an economic basket case. We'll say no of course, and the freshly built statues of Salmond will start getting torn down.

TGOHF

FluffyThoughts said:

dyedwoolie said:

Of course Scotland is currently going through what rUK will go through on an in/out EU ref.

Do you really think that the EU will refuse to share their currency with us? What a disappointment....

Same outcome though - no currency union in either case.

alex

Omnium said:

IScotland could get very unpopular indeed for a while.

Some GBP/USD weakness is being blamed on them already - people have noticed their holidays are more expensive.

If the FTSE sells off then people will realise that their pensions are going to be hurt.

It's not impossible that interest rates will rise annoying mortgage holders.

It's certain that the separation will cost lots of money to organise, and thus more austerity, higher taxes, or both, will be on the cards.

Finally in 2015 if the vote is close the Scottish MPs could foist a Labour government on us when most people have voted Tory.

I hope none of these occur, and the best way to ensure that is for the Scots to vote no.

If they vote yes it could be messy, and I'm pretty sure that they'll want to come back in ten years anyway when they've become an economic basket case. We'll say no of course, and the freshly built statues of Salmond will start getting torn down.

They won't become an economic basket case. Within 10 years they may well have a Tory government though!

malcolmg

dyedwoolie said:

Yes surging, as expected. Once in a generation opportunities hit home late. The now or nevers will pack out the yes vote and see it over the line.
The Union is dead, long live the loose association.

Woolie , lifetime never mind generation.

malcolmg

Gadfly said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

Patrick said:

I have concluded that the chances of my being obliged to eat a plate of haggis, neeps and tatties washed down with a pint of Bellhaven is alot higher than it was. And also that us turnips are indeed turnips. ;-)

over the next decade as what's left north of the (guarded) border descends into its bankruptopia. They're going to get what they voted for.

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Which businesses are planning on moving north?

Can you name one moving south , other than in your fevered imagination.
Imagine George and chums are preparing their "get out of jail" on CU plan about now.
How will they present it as not a CU when it really is. Will it be deployed this week or will they manage to get to the following week when news will be worse.

I've seen plenty of media reports about ones making contingency plans to relocate south, but where are the ones moving north?

Resorting to insult and abuse in response to a genuine question, would indicate a lack of credible information on your part.

Don't forget. I'm all for separation, and was disappointed that we were not given a vote too.

I post very civilly with those who are of the same ilk.

Final proof as to how delusional you have become ;-)

You getting all tired and emotional.

Theuniondivvie

OldKingCole said:

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, I've said it for months (maybe years). Any separation will be acrimonious.

There are certain areas, most notably Trident and currency, where the views north and south of the border are simply opposite to one another.

I won't go into the currency issue as it's been done to death, but on Trident views north and south of the border would be in agreement. Nobody would want to keep it in Scotland.

Quite a lot of people don’t want it in England either. Or Wales, come to that.

So relocation to NI it is then.

Stereotomy

Theuniondivvie said:

*except for viewers in Scotland

I can only read that in Armando Ianucci's voice

malcolmg

FluffyThoughts said:

Roger said:

"The pathetic mocking and deriding of him on here has been horrible to watch"

He's certainly been missed. He was undoubtedly one of the brightest and best Nat posters. Can't he be persuaded back for the next two weeks?

He chose to leave. OGH asked him to respect his rules and guidance; Wee Jimmie O'Kelly refused. He has only himself to blame....

I believe he is doing very well and would appear to have come out on top.

TGOHF

malcolmg said:

dyedwoolie said:

Yes surging, as expected. Once in a generation opportunities hit home late. The now or nevers will pack out the yes vote and see it over the line.
The Union is dead, long live the loose association.

Woolie , lifetime never mind generation.

So if it's no you will shut up for 58.2 years or what ever the current Scottish life expectancy is ?

asjohnstone

SeanT said:

It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

There will not and can not be any change in the "No" offering, they've nailed their colours to the mast and argued their case for the past 3 years. To blink now and offer more would be fatal. It'd be an admission of impending defeat. They can't take a step back.

Their only chance it to stand firm and hope for the best.

Stuart_Dickson

Over £3.6 million now matched at Betfair on the IndyRef market.

Sean_F

Omnium said:

IScotland could get very unpopular indeed for a while.

Some GBP/USD weakness is being blamed on them already - people have noticed their holidays are more expensive.

If the FTSE sells off then people will realise that their pensions are going to be hurt.

It's not impossible that interest rates will rise annoying mortgage holders.

It's certain that the separation will cost lots of money to organise, and thus more austerity, higher taxes, or both, will be on the cards.

Finally in 2015 if the vote is close the Scottish MPs could foist a Labour government on us when most people have voted Tory.

I hope none of these occur, and the best way to ensure that is for the Scots to vote no.

If they vote yes it could be messy, and I'm pretty sure that they'll want to come back in ten years anyway when they've become an economic basket case. We'll say no of course, and the freshly built statues of Salmond will start getting torn down.

Like David Herdson, I think if Yes wins, the SNP would win a landslide in 2015. Thus, whichever party commands a majority in rUK will form the rUK government.

The political reality is that no rUK government could command public support or negotiate for rUK if it needed the backing of Scottish MPs.

malcolmg

FluffyThoughts said:

malcolmg said:

You will be panicking re whether Westminster will be able to afford your JSA.

Says the clown who demands that a foreign government should pay his pension post independence. No debt means no assets: 'Wee Eck' is a peronist and your pension is toast.

:muppet-watch:

Mad English Nationalist wakes up in a stupor and adds his racist bile. Keep polishing those boots.

Stuart_Dickson

asjohnstone said:

SeanT said:

It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

There will not and can not be any change in the "No" offering, they've nailed their colours to the mast and argued their case for the past 3 years. To blink now and offer more would be fatal. It'd be an admission of impending defeat. They can't take a step back.

Their only chance it to stand firm and hope for the best.

If that is their only chance then they have no chance. What a bunch of total duffers.

Cameron handed away his ace card when he refused to allow the Devomax option on the ballot paper. That was his one and only golden opportunity to save the Union.

malcolmg

Roger said:

Malcolm

" Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories."

Labour didn't support the Tories or it wouldn't have been called "The Bedroom Tax" but the hilarious 'Spare Room Subsidy'

Roger , Labour kicked it off and gave the Tories the idea of how they could punish the poor and disabled even more. They loaded the gun.

Innocent_Abroad

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

malcolmg said:

Carnyx said:

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

@Gordon Brown in the Daily Mirror: "And the vast majority across the whole UK dislike the bedroom tax.."

Is that true?

No-one at work, or amongst my circle of (cross party) friends, has ever raised it. The only time I think it was discussed (when I raised it) led to a couple of them making the point that they were glad welfare was being seriously reformed by this government. One even said that it seemed fair: people on benefits shouldn't be able to live in a larger property than they need at the expense of the taxpayer, when everyone who works has to budget according to their means. For example, flat sharing or moving to a less desirable area to suit.

There is certainly no mass anger or hankering to change it that I've detected. I doubt most working Scots have wildly different views on it to the rest of us. It's not exactly the Poll Tax, is it?

I suspect it reasonates in Scotland because (a) it's Tory - Scotland didn't vote Tory (b) it's been imposed from Westminster - nationalists don't like Westminster (c) it's a reserved power, so the Scottish government can't do anything about it.

In other words, it's a dividing line, and might even act as a convenient anti-English dog whistle in some quarters.

In Scotland, the issue has been defused to a considerable extent by the Scottish Gmt paying it for at least the current financial year. That pushes it to pretty much a subsidiary issue of indyref.

Carnyx , still seen as iniquitous and evil policy against the disabled by Westminster though, with Labour supporting the Tories.

I suspect from conversations that it’s one of those policies which seems OK until you actually come face to face with a sad (or hard) case. Not paying JSA to people who don’t turn up daily at Jobcentres sounds OK, until you come across claimants who live a £5 bus-ride from a Centre!

exactly , or taking £20 a week of a disabled person who has a spare room that holds all their medical apparatus and cannot move as they need adapted house etc.
Also the people implementing it have multiple mansions with multiple spare rooms.

Re-reading Casino's original comment, support for the Bedroom Tax was, he said, only given by "a couple" of people. It may be that those particular individuals don't support the principles of social housing or progressive taxation either. They've every right to their views, but we shouldn't mislead ourselves into supposing that they're widely shared in Britain as a whole.

malcolmg

asjohnstone said:

SeanT said:

It all depends on this offer of Federalism. If it's done properly, and generously, then everyone gains - and Scotland will vote NO.

If it's hedged and cack handed then it will probably be YES.

There will not and can not be any change in the "No" offering, they've nailed their colours to the mast and argued their case for the past 3 years. To blink now and offer more would be fatal. It'd be an admission of impending defeat. They can't take a step back.

Their only chance it to stand firm and hope for the best.

There will be much wibbling and wobbling today for sure.

malcolmg

Omnium said:

IScotland could get very unpopular indeed for a while.

Some GBP/USD weakness is being blamed on them already - people have noticed their holidays are more expensive.

If the FTSE sells off then people will realise that their pensions are going to be hurt.

It's not impossible that interest rates will rise annoying mortgage holders.

It's certain that the separation will cost lots of money to organise, and thus more austerity, higher taxes, or both, will be on the cards.

Finally in 2015 if the vote is close the Scottish MPs could foist a Labour government on us when most people have voted Tory.

I hope none of these occur, and the best way to ensure that is for the Scots to vote no.

If they vote yes it could be messy, and I'm pretty sure that they'll want to come back in ten years anyway when they've become an economic basket case. We'll say no of course, and the freshly built statues of Salmond will start getting torn down.

I got my Euros this morning , could be a turgid day in markets tomorrow , especially now George has backed himself into a real corner. Wonder if there will be odds on when the CU climbdown occurs, before or after the YES vote.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dickson, no. DevoMax would have implications for the rest of the UK as well and cannot be a Scottish only affair.

Similar, if the 'federalism' offer does not include a fair deal for England then it will be a disgrace.