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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting favourite for next CON leader and 2nd favourite for next PM is in danger of falling at the first fence
We all know that the main impediment to Boris being Cameron’s successor is that he’s not an MP. That appeared to have been resolved a few weeks ago when he made it clear that he would seek to return to the Commons at GE2015.
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Who knows, perhaps "Prison Soap" too may have a rougher ride than his anticipated coronation....
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/will-the-gender-gap-narrow-findings-from-2011-and-quebec/
Footpad!
Claims of North Sea fracking boom a 'gross exaggeration', says leading geology professor
David Macdonald, Professor of Petroleum Geology at Aberdeen University, urges voters not take take seriously latest report by N-56 think tank
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11076113/Claims-of-North-Sea-fracking-boom-a-gross-exaggeration-says-leading-geology-professor.html
UKIP 1/10 (Betfair)
Con 17/2 (Betfair)
Lab 49/1 (Betfair)
None of the bookies are offering good prices on any of the parties. Only drawback is that there is next to no liquidity at Betfair on that market. Nobody is interested yet.
Definitely/probably vote:
Con: 86
Lab: 86
LD: 75
UKIP: 78
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/j8rehm7cqq/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-040914.pdf
Also Con have taken a big hit (14 (-6) ) on "moved on & left its past behind it" - blip, or Prison Soap?
Current best prices:
Yes 7/2 (Betdaq, Betfair)
No 3/10 (bwin)
Succeeded in moving on and left its past behind it (vs Aug 20/21)
Con: 42 (-11)
Lab: 2 (-2)
LD: 7 (-7)
UKIP: 8 (-5)
So it looks more "real" than a "funny".
Thanks Mr Prison Soap....
What I didn't know is that he has even fewer fans than David Cameron in Scotland
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/04/ed-miliband-no-more-admired-scotland/
Politically, Boris would be a shoo-in for next Tory leader if he held Clacton.
Ed Miliband arrived in Scotland proclaiming he would be Britain’s next prime minister, but left facing questions about whether he could be forced to resign as Labour leader if the Scots voted for independence.
The fate of the No campaign now rests largely on whether Mr Miliband, Labour party workers on the doorstep and other big names including Mr Brown can seize back the initiative and bring back the Labour vote.
In this increasingly raw street-by-street battle between the Yes and No sides – fought predominantly but not exclusively in the Glasgow conurbation – there is little role for Mr Cameron.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/185428fe-3448-11e4-b81c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CPwJ6UPX
Well that's a relief.
I would be very grateful if AndyJS explained the basis of his spreadsheet produced on the previous thread. I am not aware of any polling or analysis which would allow a breakdown or prediction by local authority district so it is presumably based on election results.
On the last point a friend of mine's son did not do as well as hoped in his exams. He has been trying to find a place in clearing. Basically he could get one if he contrived to have an English address and would pay fees. As a Scot in his desired area (business management) there are simply no places available with his results. The negative effect of "free" university education is becoming a major problem for Scots.
With a strong UK Labour leadership No would already be home and hosed. It has been a problem throughout the campaign.
Instead of which we have - apparently within as well as beyond the Labour Party - the notion that greed is good because at least it lifts us above the - potentially murderous - level of fear-driven identity politics.
Where do these voters live?
Fintry?
I have a suspicion that the Scots are, on the whole, less inclined to offer political support to pussies than the English. Left or right they seem to me to prefer something a bit more of the 'hard man' politico. Hell, they even had some time for Gordon Brown (deranged, vindictive, blind, narcissistic, stupid, arrogant - but not by any means a drip). SLAB has been 'hard' in a machine politics sort of way for ages. Eck is something of a dictator / Alpha male personality. I suspect the infection of political correctness may have less traction in Scotland than the UK as a whole. And this is a good thing. I admire the desire of many Scots to be independent.
But Redward? Well he's a blancmange. An English lisping bucktoothed blancmange into the bargain. Of course they hate him. And Dave. And Clegg (who scores roughly 11 out of 10 on the metrosexual wincing mincing floppy nancyboy PC idiot gimp scale).
http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/crime/video-calls-for-meeting-with-roma-leaders-over-unrest-in-hexthorpe-1-6822768
I wonder if any of the PB cheerleaders of the PPEocrachy could explain how allowing unlimited immigration from the poorest parts of Europe to one of the poorest districts in one of the poorest boroughs of England benefits this country ?
Today's Labour retention of 77% of their 2010 VI is their lowest figure this year.
Can't see that working out too well and might force a by-election for the mayoralty - surely something the Tories would be desperate to avoid?
I still haven't given up on YES and am maintaining a balance all green book on Betfair. Whatever the outcome I make a few hundred
" it found that the employment and pay situation in Doncaster was among the worst in the whole of the country.
Statistics revealed that, in the town, one in four workers earned less than two-thirds of the median national wage, and that Doncaster also fared badly when it came to differences between high- and low-pay occupations.
The town was ranked bottom of a list of more than 60 UK towns and cities with the number of low-paid workers showing the greatest gap from highly-paid workers. "
http://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/news/doncaster-workers-among-lowest-paid-in-the-country-1-6823308
David Cameron could face a leadership challenge from his own backbenches if Scotland votes in favour of independence, as Tory rebels blame him for presiding over the break-up of the Union.
The Independent understands that discussions have already taken place among Tory MPs considering standing a candidate against the Prime Minister if the Yes campaign is triumphant on 18 September.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-exclusive-rebel-mps-plot-instant-revolt-against-cameron-if-yes-campaign-win-9712688.html
When will such people stop voting Labour?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11075338/Canada-can-show-David-Cameron-how-to-rescue-our-United-Kingdom.html
On topic, I don't believe it for a moment. Activists may support the "heir apparent" but the members who don't usually do anything will turn out for Boris.
Mandela and Gandhi modified their beliefs and policies as time and experience progressed and became better leaders for having that quality.
It is not, never can be visionary or admirable to use power for partisan advantage - something which every Prime minister (or U.S. President, come to that) does and has to do.
Con ............ 301 (unchanged)
Lab ..............295 (+ 1 seat)
Lib Dem ........26 (unchanged)
Others ......... 28 (- 1 seat)
Total ...........650 seats
LOL, the unionists just cannot get out of the past , reminiscing about empire. Losers that have only past glories as answers. Look to the future you turnips.
Show a bit of respect. What was your disgusting party up to while Mr Moffat was bringing martial glory to Scotland?
The corollary of the position is when will the conservatives start making real in roads in to the difficulties of the low paid instead of shovelling in immigrants and giving subsidies and tax cuts to the well off ?
I am glad to hear he is alive and well. I have his autograph on a piece of Swordfish cloth, with a personal statement from him in his own writing. I bought it at a fundraiser to try to restore the last Fleet Air Arm Swordfish.
A very brave man.
Yes, but your future is currently one great big unknown ;-)
"The corollary of the position is when will the conservatives start making real in roads in to the difficulties of the low paid instead of shovelling in immigrants and giving subsidies and tax cuts to the well off ?"
Ludlow's going RED!!!
I think both Carswell and Farage have the wrong answers to the wrong questions about the future of the UK, but this is the wrong way to express it.
Never understood the London obsession with Boris. You clearly like him in London. Many of the rest of us think he is an entertaining lying clown not to be trusted.
He has insulted almost every other region of England and we Scots would be unlikely to forgive his remarks about us. Somewhat ironic he bears the surname of his Scottish grandmother rather than that of his Turkish grandfather!
If Boris has "balls" he should stand in Clacton. At least if he loses, he will have given Douglas Carswell a tough fight.
Do you think people vote for an abstract view of government or for the politicians who make them better off ?
better than having your head up your arse. Man up gadfly , grow a pair.
Is it accurate? No. There's no reason to suppose that Tory wins in 1964 and February 1974 would have led to elections in 1966 and October 1974, let alone further Tory wins!
1. Do you think it is fair Tories eat Scottish babies?
2. Do you look forward to the next 1,000 years of Tory rule from Westminster?
3. Should Scotland be an independent country?
As I said, it is interesting and depressing that people who find themselves in areas of poverty and deprivation keep voting the same way and expect a different outcome compared to the last 40 years. There was some constituency in the north that had 80% public sector employment and it was also one of the poorest, it doesn't take a genius to work out what the problem is.
@Alanbrooke
The world has changed and 20the century solutions are no longer applicable to 21st century problems.
Yes the UK could ban all non-EU immigrants who do not have a degree or similar, but that would not solve the problem of EU immigrants who have gained a EU-country nationality and so come to the UK under that guise.
The UK could disqualify any non-EU immigrants for UK benefits unless they have at least 5 years of paying Tax and NI.
The UK could reduce its benefit levels to those of the lowest EU country and so certain immigrants would not target the UK so much.
However, no government can create jobs that are competitive globally without at the same time improving both the UK's education standards and the personal and professional aspiration that we had over 50 years ago.
None of these will happen whilst we have a coalition HMG with the weepy LDs moderating all useful progress in this area.
I'm still mildly shocked that Miliband's ratings in Scotland are worse than Cameron's.
I know he's Crap....but really, worse than a Tory PM!
"Mr. Lord's comments about "prison soap" demonstrate what a bullet UKIP have dodged by not having him as a candidate.'
Unfortunately they have a whole arsenal they failed to dodge
Wee sleekit cowerin' timorous beasties
"Salmond then put his arm around Miliband’s shoulder and told him to go back to scamming English idiots with the no-cuts fandango."
Their spending includes SKY, 200 cigarettes and 24 cans of lager per week and they are complaining about not enough income.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16812185
https://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/31fefc0e570cb3860f2a6d4b38c6490d.html
and a debate between Clegg and a 9-year-old:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/11074677/Nick-Clegg-left-squirming-over-free-school-meals-by-9-year-old-boy.html
Clegg and the host are really patronising (Clegg even suggests the boy must be getting prompting) - I know several 9-year-olds who are perfectly capable of putting together a coherent argument as this kid does. I remember arguing the ins and outs of the electricians' union poll-rigging scandal when I was about 8 - a bit sad, maybe, but far from unique. Some kids like politics and debate and we should encourage it, or not complain when teenagers don't take an interest.
The good news: Sporting Index have returned to the political spread-betting market, with two offers on IndyRef.
The slightly less good news is that one of the markets ("Independence index") is basically just a fixed-odds bet on the result.
The other one is a proper spread bet on the turnout, currently Sell 78%, Buy 79%
It seems odd that they haven't put up a spread bet on the Yes percentage, which would be much more interesting.
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.4758858/scottish-independence-referendum
Surely the first sentence, "It is not the job of the government to maximise the welfare of any particular individuals" is unobjectionable. The provision of a welfare safety net, health service and so forth is compatible with the statement as is taxing those earning to pay for it. No government of this country has ever sought to maximise the welfare of particular individuals. It is the second sentence, "It is the government's job to allow individuals to do what they want so long as they are not breaking any laws" that is controversial.
I seem to remember polling showing UKIP voters like him a little more than they do most Tories, but I don''t remember any evidence that it'd be enough to close the massive gap that he'd have to overcome in Clacton.
Cameron hasn't worked out that a factory worker's vote is equal to a banker's, he's just not very good at politics.