Johnson is getting his ducks in a row for the leadership bid after GE2015.I expect a few others are doing the same.Likely to be a very competitive time in the Tory party,as opponents look to lay Johnson.Could be a volatile market.
A few days ago it emerged that UKIP apparently expect to win 3 to 6 seats.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
If the former MP, Bob Spink, doesn’t stand, and Labour get a decent candidate I would say that UKIP stand no chance in Castle Point.
Dennis was very busy defending imagined victims elsewhere.
"MacShane has been accused of repeatedly using false statistics in order to inflate the number of female victims of sex trafficking. In January 2007, he stated, "According to Home Office estimates, 25,000 sex slaves currently work in the massage parlours and brothels of Britain."
MacShane was publicly criticised by the Association of Political Thought for wrongly accusing London School of Economics professor of political and gender theory Anne Phillips of supporting prostitution and filling the minds of her students with "poisonous drivel". As evidence of her supposed support for the latter, he cited a question from an LSE reading list.
Predictions of seats on 2015 imply a belief that they will take their best performances in any seat in 2010 and repeat it in marginals. It just seems very unlikely.
I'm basing my assessment on the Ashcroft Thurrock poll that UKIP has a decent chance there.
Is there going to be a report into why the authorities who were charged with responsibility for those childen ("in care" indeed!) and enforcing the law failed in their duties? Did anyone blow the whistle? Were they ignored? Or did no-one see/say or do anything? Heads should roll really.
And how do we know that the same or similar is not happening / has not happened in other authorities? We know, for instance, that a notorious paedophile advised past governments on how to organise childrens' homes.
If we can have Prime Ministerial apologies for Bloody Sunday and Hillsborough then we should be having the same for this. These children were vulnerable and needed protection and were let down by those authorities charged with looking after them. It is a basic and tragic failure and utterly shaming.
1,400+ cases and Seema Malhotra MP wants more powers for Safeguarding Children Boards etc. Had the Rotherham SCB been headed by Dr Doolille or Herod King?
Hard to disagree with your post. It is numbing on so many levels. But the SGB does nothing, and nothing like its purported title suggests.
UKIP 'no seats at GE' on Betfair can be layed at 9/5 (2.8).
I would have thought anything under 2/1 (3.0) is a bit of a gift. Paddy P have Farage at 4/5 to win Thanet South. That in itself is a decent enough bet but there are other perfectly plausible UKIP wins around, unless they go into reverse between now and next May.
I think my most optimal result is in the extremes.
Either zero or 6 plus seats.
Great Grimsby at 16/1 was an utter bargain
>6 is as likely as zero, imo TSE, and available at much better odds.
Cleethorpes at 33/1 is my great hope. In to 7/1 when I last checked.
Good luck.
This morning's story, does make me wonder about UKIP's strategy and nous.
If they think Aylesbury or Forest of Dean are viable targets, then they are headed for zero.
UNS won't help much with predicting UKIP's results, which are likely to reflect the character of their leader - eccentric but interesting.
No, I can't see Aylesbury or FoD going kippy, but Pulpstar may well be barking up the right tree with Thurrock.
Ever been there?
I'm on Thurrock, but I've never been, I've been to Rayleigh in Essex, and Ilford, but that was nearly 20 years ago.
Once every twenty years is about right for Ilford, a little less frequently for Rayleigh, I would suggest.
Rayleigh’s OK, apart from the appalling traffic management system in the town centre.
No offence meant, OKC. It's just that I have relatives there, and like to keep my visits brief and infrequent.
Most of the company management with which I am familiar is very professional and very lean. However, this pattern still seems to be missing from much of the public sector.
I am glad to hear it, Mr. F., and I know we do have some very good, well managed companies out there. We also have some appallingly managed companies whose, very well remunerated, directors and senior management are not fit to run a whelk stall. I suspect a lot of the problem is within the incentive structure and the ridiculous belief that you have to pay idiots vast sums of money in case they leave (presumably to go and screw-up some other company). So in that sense, perhaps the problem is with the shareholders and the rules of corporate governance.
As for the senior management in the public sector, in which I include the third sector (businesses that pretend to be charities whilst actually be funded by the taxpayer), there are some good 'uns out there but too damn few and far too many drawing huge salaries that are not justified by their performance.
A few days ago it emerged that UKIP apparently expect to win 3 to 6 seats.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
Where do you think a UKIP majority will come from?
Let's look at Great Yarmouth for example.
2010 result:
Con 18,571 Lab 14,295 LD 6,188 UKIP 2,066
If we figure half the LDs go to Labour that takes them to about 17,000. UKIP then has to take 15,000 of Con's 18,000 votes to win the seat. That's not going to happen.
IMO the LDs now are where UKIP will be in 5 years' time (except for the MPs UKIP won't have). People voted LD in 2010 to avoid voting Tory, but got Tory anyway and now repent.
People who vote UKIP in 2015 will find they get Labour and will go on the same journey post 2015 and before 2020 as LDs have been on since 2010.
UKIP 'no seats at GE' on Betfair can be layed at 9/5 (2.8).
I would have thought anything under 2/1 (3.0) is a bit of a gift. Paddy P have Farage at 4/5 to win Thanet South. That in itself is a decent enough bet but there are other perfectly plausible UKIP wins around, unless they go into reverse between now and next May.
I think my most optimal result is in the extremes.
Either zero or 6 plus seats.
Great Grimsby at 16/1 was an utter bargain
>6 is as likely as zero, imo TSE, and available at much better odds.
Cleethorpes at 33/1 is my great hope. In to 7/1 when I last checked.
Good luck.
This morning's story, does make me wonder about UKIP's strategy and nous.
If they think Aylesbury or Forest of Dean are viable targets, then they are headed for zero.
UNS won't help much with predicting UKIP's results, which are likely to reflect the character of their leader - eccentric but interesting.
No, I can't see Aylesbury or FoD going kippy, but Pulpstar may well be barking up the right tree with Thurrock.
Ever been there?
I'm on Thurrock, but I've never been, I've been to Rayleigh in Essex, and Ilford, but that was nearly 20 years ago.
Once every twenty years is about right for Ilford, a little less frequently for Rayleigh, I would suggest.
Don't diss Ilford, man! (I'm there every weekend!!) Last time I went to Thurrock was beginning of November (Lakeside!). Not been to Rayleigh, but passed through on the Southend Victoria train (again last year).
If you went to Lakeside in November I'm surprised you've managed to get out so soon. It always reminds me of certain passages from Dante's Inferno.
I'll get me coat, before the massed armies of Essex descend upon me......
A few days ago it emerged that UKIP apparently expect to win 3 to 6 seats.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
If the former MP, Bob Spink, doesn’t stand, and Labour get a decent candidate I would say that UKIP stand no chance in Castle Point.
Agree.
2010 result:
Con 19,806 Lab 6,609 LD 4,232 UKIP 0
Assuming half the LDs go Lab UKIP has to take over 50% of the Tory 2010 vote to win, and to do so from a standing start in a seat they didn't contest last time.
Cameron should immediately announce several things:
1) that victims will get compensation from the state that has let them down. 2) that the care system in England (UK?) will be thoroughly overhauled. 3) Immediate disbandment of South Yorkshire Police and Rotherham Council (especially the social care teams). Their work to be undertaken by other forces and councils whilst they are reconstituted. 4) Another inquiry into the care system in the UK, along with beefed up inspections. 5) Increased funding, visibility and role for Childline or a.n.other reporting mechanism. Whenever any allegation is reported to a person in authority, it is their hot potato and they break the law if it is dropped or ignored.
Okay, one of those is half in jest.
But most of all: we need to help the victims.
South Yorks, the police force that tipped off the BBC about a recent raid on the home of a well known celebrity? They do seem to have a problem, don't they.
14:50: In his resignation statement, Rotherham Council leader Roger Stone says: "I think it is only right that I, as leader, take responsibility on behalf of the council for the historic failings that are so clearly described in the report."
BBC ticker.
So tell me Ed Miliband why do you want more powers for Safeguarding Children's Boards, when they don't even to the job in the first place.
A few days ago it emerged that UKIP apparently expect to win 3 to 6 seats.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
If the former MP, Bob Spink, doesn’t stand, and Labour get a decent candidate I would say that UKIP stand no chance in Castle Point.
Agree.
2010 result:
Con 19,806 Lab 6,609 LD 4,232 UKIP 0
Assuming half the LDs go Lab UKIP has to take over 50% of the Tory 2010 vote to win, and to do so from a standing start in a seat they didn't contest last time.
Predictions of seats on 2015 imply a belief that they will take their best performances in any seat in 2010 and repeat it in marginals. It just seems very unlikely.
I'm basing my assessment on the Ashcroft Thurrock poll that UKIP has a decent chance there.
A few days ago it emerged that UKIP apparently expect to win 3 to 6 seats.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
Let's look at Great Yarmouth for example.
2010 result:
Con 18,571 Lab 14,295 LD 6,188 UKIP 2,066
If we figure half the LDs go to Labour that takes them to about 17,000. UKIP then has to take 15,000 of Con's 18,000 votes to win the seat. That's not going to happen.
To pick a poll at random, let's choose the most recent Ashcroft National Poll. Excluding don't knows, UKIP takes 18% of the Conservative 2010 vote and 12% of each of the Labour and Lib Dem 2010 vote.
In Great Yarmouth that would put them on about 8,000, behind the Tories on 15,000 and Labour on 12,000. If we assume that UKIP identify Great Yarmouth as a target, and that their local campaigning helps them, then I reckon it's fair to identify Great Yarmouth as a good chance.
Looks like a systematic failure by senior officials and councillors over an extended period:
In response, Rotherham council, which commissioned the report, said it accepted the findings, including the statement that failures "almost without exception" were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers.
It accepted that failures were not down to "frontline social or youth workers who are acknowledged in the report as repeatedly raising serious concerns about the nature and extent of this kind of child abuse".
Predictions of seats on 2015 imply a belief that they will take their best performances in any seat in 2010 and repeat it in marginals. It just seems very unlikely.
I'm basing my assessment on the Ashcroft Thurrock poll that UKIP has a decent chance there.
Oh dear!
@isam Put yourself forward for S Basildon & E Thurrock ?
Staggered at the scale of abuse in Rotherham. 1,400 over 16 years. 157 reports of abuse last year. 3 convicted. Mainly children in care. Police and Council knew about it. God help the victims.
Sunny Hundal @sunny_hundal · 2 mins Rotherham report: "collective failures of political and officer leadership were blatant". + "Police gave no priority to child sexual abuse"
Disgusting...not to raise a party political point, but this is what happens when local politicans get way too cosy in their seats, and when you have social breakdown at the level of places in Rotherham.
Please don't tease the few on here who succumb to a fit of the vapours every time the Kippers' poll share goes up. Denial is the first response but we're already on to anger.
I suspect that left to their own devices, Ukip will slowly fall to about 10% by May 2015 but they may well tale a seat or two (I suspect Boston could be a win).
If however, they have a good conference - and that means reasonable policies or hysterical responses from the usual suspects - or the Europhiles/lsamists/SWP make the headlines, then six seats will be a conservative (with a small 'c') estimate.
BBC Look North @BBCLookNorth · 1 hr Rotherham report: Councillors told about the abuse "in the most explicit terms" in 2004 and 2005. Rotherham council apologises.
Looks like a systematic failure by senior officials and councillors over an extended period:
In response, Rotherham council, which commissioned the report, said it accepted the findings, including the statement that failures "almost without exception" were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers.
It accepted that failures were not down to "frontline social or youth workers who are acknowledged in the report as repeatedly raising serious concerns about the nature and extent of this kind of child abuse".
So how many of those senior managers and police officers are still employed (by any council/force) and how many will be disciplined? Anyone want to place a bet?
OT. The theory was always wishful thinking. UKIP is on the march. Nay, with things like the Rotherham report out, they will be galloping to parliamentary representation.
Lets remember as well, only The Times would touch this story, the authorities and other media outlets were too concerned about "local sensitivity" issues...even now read the BBC report and it downplays what was, as an internal report by the plod, stated "a problem with networks of Asian offenders both locally and nationally".
It was their continued investigation (based upon confidential police and social service documents), that really brought this story into the sunlight.
I wonder if they had not been leaked this info and / or chosen not to properly investigate if anything would have happened?
Looks like a systematic failure by senior officials and councillors over an extended period:
In response, Rotherham council, which commissioned the report, said it accepted the findings, including the statement that failures "almost without exception" were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers.
It accepted that failures were not down to "frontline social or youth workers who are acknowledged in the report as repeatedly raising serious concerns about the nature and extent of this kind of child abuse".
In that article the Guardian have changed the original quote of Professor Alexis Jay from:
"By far the majority of perpetrators were described as Pakistani by victims."
to:
"By far the majority of perpetrators were described as Asian by victims."
Spot the difference.
Again, (and this isn't addressed to you Richard), we have another example of the left in Britain covering up and defending the crimes of Islam. When is it going to end. This time 1,400 kids were abused. We also had a serving soldier decapitated. Now we have British Muslims killing in the name of Islam in Iraq and Syria. There seems to be a pattern emerging...
A few days ago it emerged that UKIP apparently expect to win 3 to 6 seats.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
Where do you think a UKIP majority will come from?
Let's look at Great Yarmouth for example.
2010 result:
Con 18,571 Lab 14,295 LD 6,188 UKIP 2,066
If we figure half the LDs go to Labour that takes them to about 17,000. UKIP then has to take 15,000 of Con's 18,000 votes to win the seat. That's not going to happen.
IMO the LDs now are where UKIP will be in 5 years' time (except for the MPs UKIP won't have). People voted LD in 2010 to avoid voting Tory, but got Tory anyway and now repent.
People who vote UKIP in 2015 will find they get Labour and will go on the same journey post 2015 and before 2020 as LDs have been on since 2010.
Lets remember as well, only The Times would touch this story, the authorities and other media outlets were too concerned about "local sensitivity" issues...even now read the BBC report and it downplays what was as a report by the plod stated "a problem with networks of Asian offenders both locally and nationally"
It was there continued investigation (based upon confidential police and social service documents), that really brought this story into the sunlight.
I wonder if they had not been leaked this info and / or chosen not to properly investigate?
It took the loathe some Griffin to expose it in Oldham (?)
The Rotherham case is appalling. It's not the first time though that this has happened. We had the problems in Islington and the leader of the Council at the time, far from resigning and taking responsibility, attacked one of the victims and then went on to become Minister for Children in the Labour Government and now regularly and self-righteously berates others for their actual or imagined failings.
If we're ever going to change matters then all those who were in charge of authorities where child abuse was happening should resign and play no further role in public life.
We could call this novel concept "Taking Responsibility".
And we can apply it to CEOs of banks and Council Leaders and all sorts of other people keen to have the kudos and rewards and baubles but less keen on understanding that "The Buck Stops with Them".
A few days ago it emerged that UKIP apparently expect to win 3 to 6 seats.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
Where do you think a UKIP majority will come from?
Polling shows that a lot of UKIP support comes from former non-voters. If (and it's a very big if) they can hold onto them then they can get more votes than expected even if they do only take the sort of proportions of other parties' votes that you suggest. The interaction between voters choosing to stay at home or choosing to vote is crucial in UKIP's dynamics.
I would not suprised if Labour can be tied to the Rotherham scandal.
Ever since the UKIP foster child scandal, Rotherham council has shown that is likes to micromanage it's child care program. If Rotheham Labour were busy checking the political backgrounds of potencial parents it would be difficult for them to have missed the child grooming bit.
Today's populus polling shifts are caused by two separate shifts.
1 An increase in 2010C voters voting UKIP and a corresponding decrease in 2010C voting C. 2 An increase in both 2010L and 2010LD voters voting L and a corresponding decrease in 2010L and 2010LD voters saying Don't Know.
So Labour firming up uncertain voters (who voted in 2010) but Conservatives losing support direct to UKIP.
All comparisons are with the average shifts since February this year.
This is data from one poll, past polls not showing these shifts, and thus may be just normal polling variation particularly due to bank holiday polling.
However, if there was over 1,400 in Rotherham, how many across all the towns in the north were there? 10,000+? Also how far south and west did this evil extend?
Surely there is much more to be discovered of past and most probably current practices. The excuse, for burying this problem across the Council and the police, of not being racist, must be eliminated.
Looks like a systematic failure by senior officials and councillors over an extended period:
In response, Rotherham council, which commissioned the report, said it accepted the findings, including the statement that failures "almost without exception" were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers.
It accepted that failures were not down to "frontline social or youth workers who are acknowledged in the report as repeatedly raising serious concerns about the nature and extent of this kind of child abuse".
In that article the Guardian have changed the original quote of Professor Alexis Jay from:
"By far the majority of perpetrators were described as Pakistani by victims."
to:
"By far the majority of perpetrators were described as Asian by victims."
Spot the difference.
Again, (and this isn't addressed to you Richard), we have another example of the left in Britain covering up and defending the crimes of Islam. When is it going to end. This time 1,400 kids were abused. We also had a serving soldier decapitated. Now we have British Muslims killing in the name of Islam in Iraq and Syria. There seems to be a pattern emerging...
It will only end when the people stand up to it. That means not supporting the parties or MP's that defend these atrocities, such as Dianne Abbot. I can see the army on the streets the way this heading, and I'm getting concerned as I'm beginning to sound like Sean T.
It took the loathe some Griffin to expose it in Oldham (?)
The BNP were the first to pick up on this. It sounds awful, but this is probably one reason the authorities were afraid of investigating.
Don't be ridiculous. The fear was of mock-outrage from the Guardian and other assorted leftist idiots as the police would be seen to be "targeting" Muslims. It would take some serious mental gymnastics to tie this one to the BNP.
That's the reason elected police commisioners should be abolished, because they are politicians and have different interests than fighting crime. In this case, it's possible that he could abuse his position to protect himself.
IS in Iraq and British politicians being measured and statesmanlike. Ukip move up a little as expected.
All it needs now is for some deranged left winger to complain that IS are being vilified. Or a right winger to accuse them of being racist bigots. Then - ching, ching - another boost for the Kippers.
But they can't stop themselves, can they?
Surely it would be a deranged RIGHT winger who’d sympathise with IS. After all it’s they who provide the religious zealots, etc.
It's the left of this country who defend Islamic fundamentalists. It always has been. Religion doesn't come into it. Just recently we had the Guardian saying that these "youths" who have gone out there are just angry and misunderstood. On the right I think we are all in agreement that they are evil and a threat to our national security. I wonder where Ed Miliband is on all of this. He has been conspicuous in his silence. Doesn't want to risk offending one of his major voter segments I guess.
It was a monumental mistake to encourage immigration from primitive cultures with a fundamentalist religion. Youngsters from all backgrounds are often disenchanted with life - it's part of growing up. But even if you are born into a more open society you may still feel alienated and you may want to take it out on your fellow citizens. And if you join a fundamentalist gang you can make big money by kidnapping and be given a wife who will obey every one of your orders, on pain of a beating. If you die in battle you will have dozens of virgins at your disposal.
We had had a generation of politicians of both parties that had screwed our economy, we had Unions that were completely out of control and we had a class ridden management structure that was spectacularly incompetent.
There is some evidence that British industry was targeted by the KGB in the 1960s and 1970s. Jack Jones was a Soviet agent, Hugh Scanlon probably was, Scargill took Libyan money in the 1980s so GOK what was happening before then, at least one Soviet defector in a position to know said Wilson was an agent and Michael Foot accepted Soviet money as well.
If this was indeed the strategy then it was nearly very successful.
What about Burgess, Maclean, Philby and Blunt? All fat Tories of the Elite establishment that did damage to the UK.
We - the people - will never trust the Lab/Lib/Con governments again.
That's the reason elected police commisioners should be abolished, because they are politicians and have different interests than fighting crime.
Are you suggesting we should go back to the old system which worked so well in Rotherham?
At least the good people of Rotherham now have a chance to kick out the police commissioner if he doesn't clean things up.
Have you not heard of conflict of interest?
There is no guarantee that he will, in fact because he was a Rotherham Labour councillor before being elected PCC it's possible that he will abuse his position to protect himself.
It's a bad idea to put people in places where they have to investigate themselves or their buddies. Everyone understands it, that's why people hate elected PCC and refuse or don't care to vote in PCC elections.
''Still, we shouldn't be too critical of Rotherham Council.'' Why didn't these poor victims appeal to their crusading, upstanding MP, Denis McShane???
1. Was his office ever open? 2. Was he away in Brussels? 3. Did they struggle (like the authorities) to find his office? 4. Was there a problem with the staff he employed (such as other MPs wives)? 5. Was he simply more interested in Europe?
It is noticeable that both in Iraq/Syria and in Nigeria (Boko Haram) the Islamists capture women and children for use as slaves. Probably the same happens with Al-Shabaab in Somalia, but news from there is harder to get.
Almost a repeat on a smaller scale of the 17th & 18th century raids on the UK by corsairs from the Barbary Coast, who are reputed to have captured over1m slaves in their time.
It's a bad idea to put people in places where they have to investigate themselves or their buddies.
But that would be true however they are appointed.
As I said, at least there is now the possibility of throwing him out. Lots of independents were successful in the police commissioner elections, so it's not necessarily a party-political thing.
Despite the finding of the report that failures “almost without exception” were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers and the council leader’s resignation, chief executive Martin Kimber said no council officers will face disciplinary action.
Seriously...what kind of f-up DO you have to do in the public sector??
We had had a generation of politicians of both parties that had screwed our economy, we had Unions that were completely out of control and we had a class ridden management structure that was spectacularly incompetent.
There is some evidence that British industry was targeted by the KGB in the 1960s and 1970s. Jack Jones was a Soviet agent, Hugh Scanlon probably was, Scargill took Libyan money in the 1980s so GOK what was happening before then, at least one Soviet defector in a position to know said Wilson was an agent and Michael Foot accepted Soviet money as well. If this was indeed the strategy then it was nearly very successful.
What about Burgess, Maclean, Philby and Blunt? All fat Tories of the Elite establishment that did damage to the UK.
Just one problem. They were recruited as Communists.
It's a bad idea to put people in places where they have to investigate themselves or their buddies.
But that would be true however they are appointed.
As I said, at least there is now the possibility of throwing him out. Lots of independents were successful in the police commissioner elections, so it's not necessarily a party-political thing.
The post should be abolished since it can foster and protect crimes conducted by politicians.
Despite the finding of the report that failures “almost without exception” were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers and the council leader’s resignation, chief executive Martin Kimber said no council officers will face disciplinary action.
Seriously...what kind of f-up DO you have to do in the public sector??
Well if you do, then you might then get £700k payoff...
Today's populus polling shifts are caused by two separate shifts.
1 An increase in 2010C voters voting UKIP and a corresponding decrease in 2010C voting C. 2 An increase in both 2010L and 2010LD voters voting L and a corresponding decrease in 2010L and 2010LD voters saying Don't Know.
So Labour firming up uncertain voters (who voted in 2010) but Conservatives losing support direct to UKIP.
All comparisons are with the average shifts since February this year.
This is data from one poll, past polls not showing these shifts, and thus may be just normal polling variation particularly due to bank holiday polling.
Populus have sent marginal candidates a local overview - the E Mids one shows a long period of consistent large Tory leads up to 15% in June, followed by essentially level pegging since the end of June. not sure what account for that, but it seems quite consistent. UKIP above LibDems throughout.
It's a bad idea to put people in places where they have to investigate themselves or their buddies.
But that would be true however they are appointed.
As I said, at least there is now the possibility of throwing him out. Lots of independents were successful in the police commissioner elections, so it's not necessarily a party-political thing.
Unfortunately, no independents stood for election in the South Yorkshire PCC elections. The candidates were: Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, UKIP and English Democrats.
Wanting to overturn centuries of legal principles for a cheap populist headline.
The comparison is ignorant in the extreme. In 2005, Boris was opposing the Prevention of Terrorism Bill, which bought in control orders. The same principle, of courses, underpins terrorist prevention and investigation measures and emergency terrorism prevention and investigation measures, which were enacted by this government in 2011. That is that the Secretary of State may impose restrictions on a person's liberty, despite there being no active criminal proceedings against them and when they are not under the sentence of a court.
All Johnson is today proposing is the enactment of a new rebuttable presumption, a burden of proof on the defence in relation to elements of the offence, not the offence as a whole, within the trial process. Unlike Blair and Cameron's machinations which saw their last serious peacetime outing under George III, rebuttable presumptions are, and always have been common in English law. Indeed, the Appellate Committee held in Sheldrake v DPP (AGR 4/2002), [2004] UKHL 43 that a reverse legal burden of proof on the defence did not necessarily contravene article 6 ECHR, guaranteeing a right to a fair trial, and that if such legal burdens were incompatible in the circumstances, they could be "read down" under section 3 of 1998 Act into an evidential burden.
Bibi is going to get the drop quite soon, IMHE. Prepare for very early elections in Israel soon after the High Holidays in Sept/Oct. Probably November. There could be a good bet on it.
Despite the finding of the report that failures “almost without exception” were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers and the council leader’s resignation, chief executive Martin Kimber said no council officers will face disciplinary action.
Seriously...what kind of f-up DO you have to do in the public sector??
Well if you do, then you might then get £700k payoff...
There was a chance to prevent it early but looked what happened (from the inquiry report):
"A chapter of a draft report on research into CSE in Rotherham, often referred to as 'The Home Office Report', was written by a researcher in 2002. It contained severe criticisms of the agencies in Rotherham involved with CSE.
It presented a clear picture of a 'high prevalence of young women being coerced and abused through prostitution.' Senior officers in the Police and the Council were deeply unhappy about the data and evidence that underpinned the report.
Several sources reported that the researcher was subjected to personalised hostility at the hands of officials. She was unable to complete the last part of the research. The content which senior officers objected to has been shown with hindsight to be largely accurate. Had this report been treated with the seriousness it merited at the time by both the Police and the Council, the children involved then and later would have been better protected and abusers brought to justice. These events have led to suspicions of collusion and cover up."
Unfortunately, no independents stood for election in the South Yorkshire PCC elections. The candidates were: Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, UKIP and English Democrats.
The turnout was 14.5%
Maybe a credible independent will stand next time, if the current incumbent doesn't shake things up. Or perhaps the good people of South Yorkshire are entirely content with the way their police force is run. If so they can not bother to vote next time. Either way, it's up to them now.
We had had a generation of politicians of both parties that had screwed our economy, we had Unions that were completely out of control and we had a class ridden management structure that was spectacularly incompetent.
There is some evidence that British industry was targeted by the KGB in the 1960s and 1970s. Jack Jones was a Soviet agent, Hugh Scanlon probably was, Scargill took Libyan money in the 1980s so GOK what was happening before then, at least one Soviet defector in a position to know said Wilson was an agent and Michael Foot accepted Soviet money as well. If this was indeed the strategy then it was nearly very successful.
What about Burgess, Maclean, Philby and Blunt? All fat Tories of the Elite establishment that did damage to the UK.
Just one problem. They were recruited as Communists.
Yes they were secret communists. However, they lived as card carrying Tories.
A valid question is where is Sarah Champion Rotherham MP?
She ran a local children's hospice prior to being elected. So hardly out of the loop of local affairs?
A year ago she said in Parliament 12 Sep 2013 "Much has been written in the press about how Rotherham is not doing enough to protect its young people from this horrendous crime. I can assure the House that since being elected I have worked closely with South Yorkshire police and Rotherham metropolitan borough council to find out whether our young people are getting the protection they deserve. It is totally inaccurate to say that Rotherham is doing nothing to prevent this crime and prosecute abusers. Although more can always be done, and by the council’s own admission it has not handled historical cases well, I now believe that there is a commitment and drive by the services in Rotherham to protect every child, and I welcome the fact that the council has commissioned an independent inquiry."
Odd that she seems to be ill-informed about this. In 2013 over 150 reports...
In her speech she also denied that it was a problem confined to one ethnic group of males and that only 20% of child abuse was in "looked after" children.... Today's report said the opposite that it was mainly affected "looked after".
Bibi is going to get the drop quite soon, IMHE. Prepare for very early elections in Israel soon after the High Holidays in Sept/Oct. Probably November. There could be a good bet on it.
We had had a generation of politicians of both parties that had screwed our economy, we had Unions that were completely out of control and we had a class ridden management structure that was spectacularly incompetent.
There is some evidence that British industry was targeted by the KGB in the 1960s and 1970s. Jack Jones was a Soviet agent, Hugh Scanlon probably was, Scargill took Libyan money in the 1980s so GOK what was happening before then, at least one Soviet defector in a position to know said Wilson was an agent and Michael Foot accepted Soviet money as well. If this was indeed the strategy then it was nearly very successful.
What about Burgess, Maclean, Philby and Blunt? All fat Tories of the Elite establishment that did damage to the UK.
Just one problem. They were recruited as Communists.
Yes they were secret communists. However, they lived as card carrying Tories.
Bibi is going to get the drop quite soon, IMHE. Prepare for very early elections in Israel soon after the High Holidays in Sept/Oct. Probably November. There could be a good bet on it.
Bibi is going to get the drop quite soon, IMHE. Prepare for very early elections in Israel soon after the High Holidays in Sept/Oct. Probably November. There could be a good bet on it.
"A shocking crime was committed on the unscrupulous initiative of few individuals, with the blessing of more, and amid the passive acquiescence of all."
All the best bits of collusion in pages 78 and below in the Rotherham report :
"e) The Police had responded reluctantly to missing person reports, as a 'waste of time'. Some young women had been threatened with arrest for wasting police time; f) The young women concerned were often seen by the Police as being deviant or promiscuous. The adult men with whom they were found were not questioned;"
"h) Possibly as a result of their experience, parents were often not reporting a missing child since they saw it as a waste of time; i) Professionals were reluctant to be named as a source of information in prosecution, fearing for their safety. Some Police said that if young people were not prepared to help themselves by making complaints against their abusers and giving evidence, they would take no further action on the case;"
"10.13 Prior to completion of the draft report, the researcher had to submit her data to the Home Office. When senior Council and police officers saw it, the Council suspended the researcher on the basis that she had committed 'an act of gross misconduct' by including in the data minutes of confidential inter-agency meetings.
10.14 According to the researcher, a request, made via her manager, from senior council officials and the District Commander was that she edit the data sent to the Home Office evaluator, and remove or rewrite several sections that they judged to be inaccurate or exaggerated. The District Commander had a different recollection, namely that at the time she suggested editing out any identifying information about the children involved before the report was circulated to other agencies.
10.15 The researcher told the Inquiry that she verified the accuracy of her findings and sent the report including the Chapter 4 referred to above, to the Home Office evaluators and senior officials on the last day of her employment, without incorporating any of the changes proposed by the officers concerned. Funding for the second year of the pilot was withheld by the Home Office and Rotherham was excluded from the final research report because of “implementation problems.”
We had had a generation of politicians of both parties that had screwed our economy, we had Unions that were completely out of control and we had a class ridden management structure that was spectacularly incompetent.
There is some evidence that British industry was targeted by the KGB in the 1960s and 1970s. Jack Jones was a Soviet agent, Hugh Scanlon probably was, Scargill took Libyan money in the 1980s so GOK what was happening before then, at least one Soviet defector in a position to know said Wilson was an agent and Michael Foot accepted Soviet money as well. If this was indeed the strategy then it was nearly very successful.
What about Burgess, Maclean, Philby and Blunt? All fat Tories of the Elite establishment that did damage to the UK.
Just one problem. They were recruited as Communists.
Yes they were secret communists. However, they lived as card carrying Tories.
"10.11 She described a particular case that was 'the final straw'. In 2001, a young girl who had been repeatedly raped had tried to escape her perpetrators but was terrified of reprisals. They had allegedly put all the windows in at the parental home and broken both of her brother's legs 'to send a message'. At that point, the child agreed to make a complaint to the Police. The researcher took her to the police station office where she would be interviewed in advance in order to familiarise her with the place and the officer who would be conducting the interview. Whilst there, the girl received a text from the main perpetrator. He had with him her 11-year old sister. He said repeatedly to her 'your choice…'. The girl did not proceed with the complaint. She disengaged from the pilot and project and is quoted by the researcher as saying 'you can't protect me'. This incident raised questions about how the perpetrator knew where the young woman was and what she was doing"
Bibi is going to get the drop quite soon, IMHE. Prepare for very early elections in Israel soon after the High Holidays in Sept/Oct. Probably November. There could be a good bet on it.
The impact of this stuff can be overestimated. I doubt UKIP will even try to make political capital out of what is after all a tragic situation with many victims.
Comments
My system makes it even better bet than Thurrock
Why didn't these poor victims appeal to their crusading, upstanding MP, Denis McShane???
"MacShane has been accused of repeatedly using false statistics in order to inflate the number of female victims of sex trafficking. In January 2007, he stated, "According to Home Office estimates, 25,000 sex slaves currently work in the massage parlours and brothels of Britain."
MacShane was publicly criticised by the Association of Political Thought for wrongly accusing London School of Economics professor of political and gender theory Anne Phillips of supporting prostitution and filling the minds of her students with "poisonous drivel". As evidence of her supposed support for the latter, he cited a question from an LSE reading list.
[From Wiki]
Hard to disagree with your post. It is numbing on so many levels. But the SGB does nothing, and nothing like its purported title suggests.
As for the senior management in the public sector, in which I include the third sector (businesses that pretend to be charities whilst actually be funded by the taxpayer), there are some good 'uns out there but too damn few and far too many drawing huge salaries that are not justified by their performance.
Let's look at Great Yarmouth for example.
2010 result:
Con 18,571
Lab 14,295
LD 6,188
UKIP 2,066
If we figure half the LDs go to Labour that takes them to about 17,000. UKIP then has to take 15,000 of Con's 18,000 votes to win the seat. That's not going to happen.
IMO the LDs now are where UKIP will be in 5 years' time (except for the MPs UKIP won't have). People voted LD in 2010 to avoid voting Tory, but got Tory anyway and now repent.
People who vote UKIP in 2015 will find they get Labour and will go on the same journey post 2015 and before 2020 as LDs have been on since 2010.
If you went to Lakeside in November I'm surprised you've managed to get out so soon. It always reminds me of certain passages from Dante's Inferno.
I'll get me coat, before the massed armies of Essex descend upon me......
(All a tease, Sunil, as I'm sure you know.)
2010 result:
Con 19,806
Lab 6,609
LD 4,232
UKIP 0
Assuming half the LDs go Lab UKIP has to take over 50% of the Tory 2010 vote to win, and to do so from a standing start in a seat they didn't contest last time.
It's a bit of children's crusade.
BBC ticker.
So tell me Ed Miliband why do you want more powers for Safeguarding Children's Boards, when they don't even to the job in the first place.
http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1407/independent_inquiry_cse_in_rotherham
In Great Yarmouth that would put them on about 8,000, behind the Tories on 15,000 and Labour on 12,000. If we assume that UKIP identify Great Yarmouth as a target, and that their local campaigning helps them, then I reckon it's fair to identify Great Yarmouth as a good chance.
Resignations would not be sufficient - relevant parties should be sacked.
In response, Rotherham council, which commissioned the report, said it accepted the findings, including the statement that failures "almost without exception" were attributed to senior managers in child protection services, elected councillors and senior police officers.
It accepted that failures were not down to "frontline social or youth workers who are acknowledged in the report as repeatedly raising serious concerns about the nature and extent of this kind of child abuse".
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/aug/26/rotherham-children-sexually-abused-report
Rotherham report: "collective failures of political and officer leadership were blatant".
+ "Police gave no priority to child sexual abuse"
Disgusting...not to raise a party political point, but this is what happens when local politicans get way too cosy in their seats, and when you have social breakdown at the level of places in Rotherham.
Please don't tease the few on here who succumb to a fit of the vapours every time the Kippers' poll share goes up. Denial is the first response but we're already on to anger.
I suspect that left to their own devices, Ukip will slowly fall to about 10% by May 2015 but they may well tale a seat or two (I suspect Boston could be a win).
If however, they have a good conference - and that means reasonable policies or hysterical responses from the usual suspects - or the Europhiles/lsamists/SWP make the headlines, then six seats will be a conservative (with a small 'c') estimate.
What a disgusting bunch, and South Yorkshire police now have this to add to the Orgreave and Hillsborough scandals.
Rotherham report: Councillors told about the abuse "in the most explicit terms" in 2004 and 2005. Rotherham council apologises.
'Apology' hardly covers it..
This is a shocking, appalling situation.
The theory was always wishful thinking. UKIP is on the march. Nay, with things like the Rotherham report out, they will be galloping to parliamentary representation.
It was their continued investigation (based upon confidential police and social service documents), that really brought this story into the sunlight.
I wonder if they had not been leaked this info and / or chosen not to properly investigate if anything would have happened?
"By far the majority of perpetrators were described as Pakistani by victims."
to:
"By far the majority of perpetrators were described as Asian by victims."
Spot the difference.
Again, (and this isn't addressed to you Richard), we have another example of the left in Britain covering up and defending the crimes of Islam. When is it going to end. This time 1,400 kids were abused. We also had a serving soldier decapitated. Now we have British Muslims killing in the name of Islam in Iraq and Syria. There seems to be a pattern emerging...
700 LD -> UKIP
2500 LAB -> UKIP
4000 CON -> UKIP
3000 DNV -> UKIP
2000 LD -> LAB
3000 LAB -> DNV
4000 CON -> UKIP
1000 CON -> DNV
Tough ask for UKIP but that lot takes it to a 3 way marginal.
It looks like some British people do not need to imagine what life would be like for non-muslims under IS.
They already know.
If we're ever going to change matters then all those who were in charge of authorities where child abuse was happening should resign and play no further role in public life.
We could call this novel concept "Taking Responsibility".
And we can apply it to CEOs of banks and Council Leaders and all sorts of other people keen to have the kudos and rewards and baubles but less keen on understanding that "The Buck Stops with Them".
Ever since the UKIP foster child scandal, Rotherham council has shown that is likes to micromanage it's child care program.
If Rotheham Labour were busy checking the political backgrounds of potencial parents it would be difficult for them to have missed the child grooming bit.
The BNP were the first to pick up on this. It sounds awful, but this is probably one reason the authorities were afraid of investigating.
1 An increase in 2010C voters voting UKIP and a corresponding decrease in 2010C voting C.
2 An increase in both 2010L and 2010LD voters voting L and a corresponding decrease in 2010L and 2010LD voters saying Don't Know.
So Labour firming up uncertain voters (who voted in 2010) but Conservatives losing support direct to UKIP.
All comparisons are with the average shifts since February this year.
This is data from one poll, past polls not showing these shifts, and thus may be just normal polling variation particularly due to bank holiday polling.
However, if there was over 1,400 in Rotherham, how many across all the towns in the north were there? 10,000+? Also how far south and west did this evil extend?
Surely there is much more to be discovered of past and most probably current practices. The excuse, for burying this problem across the Council and the police, of not being racist, must be eliminated.
In this case, it's possible that he could abuse his position to protect himself.
"They either didn't believe what they were being told, played it down, or were too nervous to act. The failures, the report says, are blatant."
next to a report where the totality of the details of the offenders are limited to "5 men"...."described as Asian".
At least the good people of Rotherham now have a chance to kick out the police commissioner if he doesn't clean things up.
We - the people - will never trust the Lab/Lib/Con governments again.
;-)
There is no guarantee that he will, in fact because he was a Rotherham Labour councillor before being elected PCC it's possible that he will abuse his position to protect himself.
It's a bad idea to put people in places where they have to investigate themselves or their buddies.
Everyone understands it, that's why people hate elected PCC and refuse or don't care to vote in PCC elections.
Just catching up on the opinion polls since last Wednesday night in order to work out this weeks BJESUS
How long do we give until somebody lets off a rocket?
2. Was he away in Brussels?
3. Did they struggle (like the authorities) to find his office?
4. Was there a problem with the staff he employed (such as other MPs wives)?
5. Was he simply more interested in Europe?
"In May 2011, 45,410,683 individuals received food stamps. As of May 2014 (the most recent date for which data are available), 46,225,054 people were on food stamps."
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/25/Unprecedented-Food-Stamp-Enrollments-Top-45-Million-3-Years-In-a-Row
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2009/05/16/article-0-04EC57B9000005DC-295_468x348.jpg
How would anybody ever miss it?
Almost a repeat on a smaller scale of the 17th & 18th century raids on the UK by corsairs from the Barbary Coast, who are reputed to have captured over1m slaves in their time.
As I said, at least there is now the possibility of throwing him out. Lots of independents were successful in the police commissioner elections, so it's not necessarily a party-political thing.
Does Rotherham Council still prevent Ukip members from adopting kids?
The children's services spokesperson then was truly magnificent. Or was she a double agent for the Kippers?
Seriously...what kind of f-up DO you have to do in the public sector??
http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/downloads/file/1139/local_election_results_22_may_2014
Welcome back, bigjohn, hope it went well?
The turnout was 14.5%
Anyway, are you seriously arguing that the previous system was actually better? Today of all days seems a strange time to try to make that argument.
All Johnson is today proposing is the enactment of a new rebuttable presumption, a burden of proof on the defence in relation to elements of the offence, not the offence as a whole, within the trial process. Unlike Blair and Cameron's machinations which saw their last serious peacetime outing under George III, rebuttable presumptions are, and always have been common in English law. Indeed, the Appellate Committee held in Sheldrake v DPP (AGR 4/2002), [2004] UKHL 43 that a reverse legal burden of proof on the defence did not necessarily contravene article 6 ECHR, guaranteeing a right to a fair trial, and that if such legal burdens were incompatible in the circumstances, they could be "read down" under section 3 of 1998 Act into an evidential burden.
So an extraordinarily ignorant comparison.
YG 21/8/14 Lab 354 CON 282 LD 18
Populus 22/8/14 Lab 364 Con 240 LD 21
YG 24/8/14 Lab 334 Con 273 LD 17
Populus 26/8/14 Lab 360 Con 228 LD 36
EICIPM
apologies if i have missed any
Massive drop in support for Netanyahu -- poll | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/massive-drop-in-support-for-netanyahu-poll/#ixzz3BVZWufZq
"A chapter of a draft report on research into CSE in Rotherham, often referred to as
'The Home Office Report', was written by a researcher in 2002. It contained severe
criticisms of the agencies in Rotherham involved with CSE.
It presented a clear picture of a 'high prevalence of young women being
coerced and abused through prostitution.' Senior officers in the Police and the
Council were deeply unhappy about the data and evidence that underpinned the
report.
Several sources reported that the researcher was subjected to personalised hostility at the
hands of officials. She was unable to complete the last part of the research. The
content which senior officers objected to has been shown with hindsight to be largely
accurate. Had this report been treated with the seriousness it merited at the time by
both the Police and the Council, the children involved then and later would have been
better protected and abusers brought to justice. These events have led to suspicions
of collusion and cover up."
A year ago she said in Parliament 12 Sep 2013
"Much has been written in the press about how Rotherham is not doing enough to protect its young people from this horrendous crime. I can assure the House that since being elected I have worked closely with South Yorkshire police and Rotherham metropolitan borough council to find out whether our young people are getting the protection they deserve. It is totally inaccurate to say that Rotherham is doing nothing to prevent this crime and prosecute abusers. Although more can always be done, and by the council’s own admission it has not handled historical cases well, I now believe that there is a commitment and drive by the services in Rotherham to protect every child, and I welcome the fact that the council has commissioned an independent inquiry."
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm130912/debtext/130912-0003.htm#13091227000593
Odd that she seems to be ill-informed about this. In 2013 over 150 reports...
In her speech she also denied that it was a problem confined to one ethnic group of males and that only 20% of child abuse was in "looked after" children.... Today's report said the opposite that it was mainly affected "looked after".
Another wonderful specimen of a Labour MP?
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/26/ukip-nigel-farage-party-conferences-general-election
Who said it and when?
"e) The Police had responded reluctantly to missing person reports, as a 'waste of
time'. Some young women had been threatened with arrest for wasting police
time;
f) The young women concerned were often seen by the Police as being deviant or
promiscuous. The adult men with whom they were found were not questioned;"
"h) Possibly as a result of their experience, parents were often not reporting a
missing child since they saw it as a waste of time;
i) Professionals were reluctant to be named as a source of information in
prosecution, fearing for their safety. Some Police said that if young people were
not prepared to help themselves by making complaints against their abusers and
giving evidence, they would take no further action on the case;"
"10.13 Prior to completion of the draft report, the researcher had to submit her data to the
Home Office. When senior Council and police officers saw it, the Council suspended
the researcher on the basis that she had committed 'an act of gross misconduct' by
including in the data minutes of confidential inter-agency meetings.
10.14 According to the researcher, a request, made via her manager, from senior council
officials and the District Commander was that she edit the data sent to the Home
Office evaluator, and remove or rewrite several sections that they judged to be
inaccurate or exaggerated. The District Commander had a different recollection,
namely that at the time she suggested editing out any identifying information about
the children involved before the report was circulated to other agencies.
10.15 The researcher told the Inquiry that she verified the accuracy of her findings and sent
the report including the Chapter 4 referred to above, to the Home Office evaluators
and senior officials on the last day of her employment, without incorporating any of
the changes proposed by the officers concerned. Funding for the second year of the
pilot was withheld by the Home Office and Rotherham was excluded from the final
research report because of “implementation problems.”
"10.11 She described a particular case that was 'the final straw'.
In 2001, a young girl
who had been repeatedly raped had tried to escape her perpetrators but was terrified
of reprisals. They had allegedly put all the windows in at the parental home and
broken both of her brother's legs 'to send a message'. At that point, the child agreed
to make a complaint to the Police. The researcher took her to the police station office
where she would be interviewed in advance in order to familiarise her with the place
and the officer who would be conducting the interview. Whilst there, the girl received
a text from the main perpetrator. He had with him her 11-year old sister. He said
repeatedly to her 'your choice…'. The girl did not proceed with the complaint. She
disengaged from the pilot and project and is quoted by the researcher as saying 'you
can't protect me'. This incident raised questions about how the perpetrator knew where the young woman was and what she was doing"
The impact of this stuff can be overestimated. I doubt UKIP will even try to make political capital out of what is after all a tragic situation with many victims.