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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm
This follows an increase in the UKIP share in the ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror – published at the weekend and the last YouGov poll have Farage’s party up from its average for the month of about 12% to 14%.
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FPT: F1: perhaps surprisingly (I didn't realise this) Whitmarsh was still technically team principal of McLaren, until today:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28934043
Less surprisingly, the FIA aren't going to take action against Rosberg:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28934044
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/ukip-vote-percentage
A vote for UKIP will seem like a much worse idea in the polling booth as the words "Vote silly, get Mili" echo in the punters' ears.
Still think it's hilarious that Farage has been suckered into standing in Thanet. This will be, what, his sixth failed attempt at getting into Parliament?
TheScreamingEagles said:
In natworld, this another Southern Tory Jessie
Paddy Power Politics @pppolitics 1m
Despite Alex Salmond winning the debate, one Northern England punter placed £10,000 on the Socts to vote NO to independence (1/6) #indyref
A very stupid one who obviously has too much money. Very very poor odds given the current position , but if you are stupid and viewing it via newspapers in England he probably thinks he will make a pittance.
In short a real TURNIP.
Juncker's hectoring the UK about wimmin as the eurozone crashes into recession and deflation in my personal favourite.
Let's face it, we are spoiled for choice.
EXCLUSIVE. Boris has declared he will stand in #Uxbridge & South #Ruislip. Application has been lodged this morning.
@MayorofLondon
Having just returned from a Norwegian holiday, I noticed this on the BBC website (How Norway has avoided the 'curse of oil'):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28882312
Anybody else agree that the UK should have done something similar rather than using the oil money to close down manufacturing?
Still can't see Ed M as PM though.
Yes.
Green and Lib Dem voters are cleverest, says research
A paper published in the journal Intelligence makes fascinating reading
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2008/nov/03/greenpolitics-liberaldemocrats
All it needs now is for some deranged left winger to complain that IS are being vilified. Or a right winger to accuse them of being racist bigots. Then - ching, ching - another boost for the Kippers.
But they can't stop themselves, can they?
Betting suspended on #BorisJohnson constituency. Latest news is that he is applying to be the Uxbridge & South Ruislip candidate....
He should do what he did in Newark, which was bottle it and let someone else look foolish in failure, on the basis that he's an MEP and needs to keep filling his pock ---- er, er, representing his constitchents.
It doesn't say a lot for his judgement that he couldn't spot an obvious hospital pass.
I think it 1/41 on the Tories winning Uxbridge is the definition of a risk free return.
(I bet Ed Miliband has a high IQ and Hollande too.)
I would have thought anything under 2/1 (3.0) is a bit of a gift. Paddy P have Farage at 4/5 to win Thanet South. That in itself is a decent enough bet but there are other perfectly plausible UKIP wins around, unless they go into reverse between now and next May.
As for "using our money to close down manufacturing", that's also absurd. The manufacturing losses under Thatcher were unprofitable and only operating at government subsidy. Closing them down thus didn't cost money, it made it.
All three of the establishment parties need to accept that they need action on the EU and immigration else their voters are up for grabs.
"We're hearing your concerns" just won't cut it. They're going to have to tell us how they are going to cut immigration further. From what I hear from Labour they're actually going to reverse some of the Tories' new limits.
Periodically it gets so bad that they lose anyway and the Tories then repair the economy. Labour needs a Tory victory from time to time so they can do this, enabling Labour to get back in and f>ck it again.
If you leave Labour an economy in any shape it will always make it worse. There is absolutely no reason you would hand over a big stash of cash as well.
Wanting to overturn centuries of legal principles for a cheap populist headline.
Who does he think he is? Tony Blair
I'm definitely in the Jeremy Hunt/Sajid Javid for next Tory leader camp now.
When Boris attacked Blair's "astonishing" assault on the right to trial
In 2005, the Mayor argued that the right to a fair trial "must remain an inalienable principle of our law".
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/when-boris-attacked-blairs-astonishing-assault-right-trial
If we had had a competitive economy in 1979 it would have been better to build a fund like Norway and keep the surplus demand out of the economy thus keeping the pound at a lower level and protecting some of our manufacturing.
But we didn't. We had had a generation of politicians of both parties that had screwed our economy, we had Unions that were completely out of control and we had a class ridden management structure that was spectacularly incompetent.
A case can be made that the UK wasted the oil income but it is a difficult and complex case that needs to recognise where we were and what the options were.
More posts like this people - the site is politicalbetting.com not politicaltrolling.com
That said, I was less amused than depressed that the Government was being attacked for not reintroducing control orders. Control orders do have the benefit of being tougher than the stupidly named TPIMS, but also have the significant drawback of being illegal.
I wouldn’t bet on that, though. I don’t think Nasty Nige will get in, but someone less well-known could welll sneak in under the radar.
Either zero or 6 plus seats.
Great Grimsby at 16/1 was an utter bargain
BTW why call opinions you disagree with 'absurd'?
If this was indeed the strategy then it was nearly very successful.
Abu Hamza was mostly prosecuted and convicted under 1861 offences against the person act.
It's amazing how 'centuries of legal principles' are vital when it comes to defending the rights of terrorists, but can be disregarded completely when it comes to the ancient rights of ordinary citizens to face HMRC in court before their savings are summarily confiscated.
And people wonder why UKIP are soaring. Where's the ceiling? with this going on, I'm not sure there is one.
New report: more than 1,400 children may have been groomed while in care of Rotherham council between 1997 and 2013
woah....that's a massive number. Appalling
2010 scores:
Con 16,869
Lab 16,777
LD 4,901
UKIP 3,390
What result will deliver this seat to UKIP? It looks nailed on for Labour to me.
For me its baboons picking insects out of each other.
Cleethorpes at 33/1 is my great hope. In to 7/1 when I last checked.
This morning's story, does make me wonder about UKIP's strategy and nous.
If they think Aylesbury or Forest of Dean are viable targets, then they are headed for zero.
"About 1,400 children were subjected to "appalling" sexual exploitation in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013, a report has found.
Children as young as 11 were raped by multiple perpetrators, abducted, trafficked to other cities in England, beaten and intimidated it said.
The report was commissioned by Rotherham Borough Council in 2013.
Five men from the town were jailed for sexual offences against girls in 2010."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-28939089
This must have been a huge cover-up to go unnoticed - an average of 87 children per year! Also shows well organised links between communities in the various towns.
2010 result:
Con 18,939
Lab 14,641
LD 8,192
UKIP 3,194
We know that so far a lot of LDs are going red. So if the LD vote drops by half, and that all goes to Lab, Labour will be on give or take 19,000 votes or so.
A win in Cleethorpes thus entails UKIP not only losing no votes at all from 2010 - despite the obvious risk of letting Labour in - but picking up 16,000 of the Conservatives' 19,000-odd votes from last time.
I know it was33:1 but even that doesn't seem enough. 333:1 maybe? 7:1 is lunacy.
No, I can't see Aylesbury or FoD going kippy, but Pulpstar may well be barking up the right tree with Thurrock.
Ever been there?
God help the victims.
Most of the company management with which I am familiar is very professional and very lean. However, this pattern still seems to be missing from much of the public sector.
As part of the shadow Home Secretary’s team, she will work on issues including female genital mutilation, forced marriage, sexual violence, trafficking and prostitution."
We don't need more laws. We need proper enforcement of the ones we already have and a determined effort by schools / social services and others to stop this happening.
I long for a politician who realises that enforcement of the law is what's needed. Any fool can make a speech or pass a law. But neither will achieve anything without hard, patient work day in day out to deal with the problem.
On the other hand, if we have to rely on authorities such as Rotherham Council, then there's zero chance of any girl/woman at risk being helped.
If only all the 33/1 bets I placed went to post at 7/1, James.....
I know it's a betting Site, Quincy, but swiping sweets from kiddies is still to be frowned upon.
He can do a lot better than that through Oddschecker.
I don't really have time to investigate it, but I have a feeling that just because UKIP did better than its national mean in a certain seat last time, that doesn't mean it has good prospects in that seat next time. It's more likely, IMHO, that there's a certain proportion of the punters who share UKIP's neuroses, and once they've got all of them voting UKIP, the seat is played out, with no more improvement possible.
They have showed no sign so far of achieving a critical mass anywhere that would deliver them any seat. In 2010 their best results anywhere - ignoring Buckingham where only two parties stood - were Christchurch and Devon East, where they got about 6% of the vote in strongly Tory seats. They only managed 5% or better in 12 seats. All but 3 are strongly Tory held; UKIP turned those three from blue to red.
This observation implies a rough cap on what they might ever poll nationally. Predictions of seats on 2015 imply a belief that they will take their best performances in any seat in 2010 and repeat it in marginals. It just seems very unlikely.
And how do we know that the same or similar is not happening / has not happened in other authorities? We know, for instance, that a notorious paedophile advised past governments on how to organise childrens' homes.
If we can have Prime Ministerial apologies for Bloody Sunday and Hillsborough then we should be having the same for this. These children were vulnerable and needed protection and were let down by those authorities charged with looking after them. It is a basic and tragic failure and utterly shaming.
Qureshi, who has previously had to apologise for offence caused by comparing the situation in Gaza to the Holocaust, also claimed that most British Muslims going to Iraq and Syria were going for “humanitarian reasons” in a bizarre Sky News interview yesterday.”
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/08/26/Sick-Yasmin-Qureshi-On-IDF-and-ISSI/
1) that victims will get compensation from the state that has let them down.
2) that the care system in England (UK?) will be thoroughly overhauled.
3) Immediate disbandment of South Yorkshire Police and Rotherham Council (especially the social care teams). Their work to be undertaken by other forces and councils whilst they are reconstituted.
4) Another inquiry into the care system in the UK, along with beefed up inspections.
5) Increased funding, visibility and role for Childline or a.n.other reporting mechanism. Whenever any allegation is reported to a person in authority, it is their hot potato and they break the law if it is dropped or ignored.
Okay, one of those is half in jest.
But most of all: we need to help the victims.
Although dominated by the YouGov polls, the wikipedia summary shows that UKIP support has declined since the May Euros, but that it has declined by less than it declined after the 2013 local elections, although it peaked at about the same level. This suggests that UKIP support in 2014 is firmer than it was in 2013.
Furthermore, we can see that the Conservatives and Labour have benefited roughly equally from UKIP's decline, such that the Labour lead has remained stable at an average of 3.5%. The Labour lead is down from about 5.5% (August 2013) and 10% (August 2012) if we look further back in time.
The Liberal Democrats are flatlining at their lowest (since 2010) sustained poll score of 8% - Clegg's brave debate gamble appears to have lead to the Lib Dems shedding another two percentage points.
Quite where this leaves us for the 2015 general election is anyone's guess. The chart shows that people will change their minds in reaction to events and there is time enough left for a few of those. Absent a major black swan my guess would be: Lib Dem ~ 10%, UKIP > 10%, Labour < 35%, Conservative > 30%.
The 6 most like in my opinion are Thanet South, Boston, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Thurrock, Castle Point. (It's possible Rotherham may be one of them in place of Castle Point although I doubt it).
Last time I went to Thurrock was beginning of November (Lakeside!).
Not been to Rayleigh, but passed through on the Southend Victoria train (again last year).