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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yet another pollster has LAB dropping to the mid-30s

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  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    There is also the fact that none of the witnesses agree with Mr Feldman's version of events.

    "Sources said the peer came out of a private room in the hotel and spoke to journalists who were on a table in a public area with a “fifth man”, understood to be a senior civil servant.

    The “fifth man” was said to have said he could not recollect the exact words used. The Daily Telegraph said it stood by its report. It and the other newspapers have not named the member of Mr Cameron’s circle behind the slur."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10066453/Swivel-eyed-loons-hit-back-at-Prime-Minister.html
    Yes: you have 3 hacks short of a story and who are probably good mates. A shadowy 'senior conservative' who it is easy to blame. A civil servant who refused to back either side.

    Feldman is a smart guy. I'd be surprised (unless he was drunk) to say something that daft to journalists.
    The story has moved on now. The Mail on Sunday have Mr Cameron calling Conservative activists swivel eyed loons too.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/335862417282191360
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    MikeK said:

    The usual carve up in the voting. Pitiful really, but that is Europe for you. I must say the GB contribution was particularly grotty.

    Lets face it, the voting in Eurovision is an hour long party political broadcast for Farage. We are clearly the international equivalent of Millwall : no one loves us, we don't care.
    We came fifth only a few years ago, and the fact we focus on our perceived unpopularity (or rather overstate the extent of it) strikes me as proof that we do care - we just try to put a brave face on it, by claiming if they don't like us, then good riddance, and we must surely be the most disliked, the best of the anti-europe if you will.
    It's Saturday night at 11.00. I wasn't serious.......
    You will have to forgive me - I had just posted about Star Trek, so was at my most serious minded. No time for japing.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    edited May 2013
    Maltese give us 5 points!
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    MikeK said:

    The usual carve up in the voting. Pitiful really, but that is Europe for you. I must say the GB contribution was particularly grotty.

    Lets face it, the voting in Eurovision is an hour long party political broadcast for Farage. We are clearly the international equivalent of Millwall : no one loves us, we don't care.
    We came fifth only a few years ago, and the fact we focus on our perceived unpopularity (or rather overstate the extent of it) strikes me as proof that we do care - we just try to put a brave face on it, by claiming if they don't like us, then good riddance, and we must surely be the most disliked, the best of the anti-europe if you will.
    It's Saturday night at 11.00. I wasn't serious.......
    You will have to forgive me - I had just posted about Star Trek, so was at my most serious minded. No time for japing.

    Fair enough! Make it so.... :-)
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Charles said:

    Feldman is a smart guy.

    Cameron’s pal and another shady crony...

    After a second Tory Treasurer was forced to resign in embarrassing circumstances, you would have thought David Cameron would proceed more carefully when it comes to party fundraising.

    It was party chairman Andrew Feldman, Cameron’s oldest and closest friend, who approved both appointments — prompting the nickname ‘Crony chairman’.

    Yet, regardless of this unfortunate track record, who was Feldman entertaining to drinks in his third-floor office at Tory Party HQ only the other day? It was none other than debonair property speculator Christopher Moran, who has been censured several times by the London Stock Exchange for a series of controversial share purchases and who holds the dubious privilege of being the first person in 300 years to be barred for life by Lloyd’s of London for ‘dishonourable conduct’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2133623/David-Camerons-pal-Andrew-Feldman-shady-crony-Christopher-Moran.html

    You must be thinking of a different Feldman than Cammie's best chum. Marty perhaps? ;)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxxSIX3fmmo
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,638
    The point being the Bennite appeasers were daft because there was nowhere else for the left wing vote to go. The Tories have a serious problem as they are threatened by a separate party that has proved it can take votes away from them in substantial amounts.

    I am not saying the Tory strategy either by Cameron or the back benchers is correct (for the Tory party), just that to dismiss the threat as another Militant seriously misreads the current Tory predicament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    kle4 said:

    I wonder what the seat distribution will be like in the next parliament if the voting figures are something like the below (which I think are fairly plausible assuming the election is in May 2015)

    Conservative 33
    Labour 32
    Libdem 13
    UKIP 12
    Others 10

    In this scenario, is it not fairly possible that Labour would still have a majority? I could see the DT leading the campaign for AMS.

    AMS?
    Additional Member System - used in the Scottish Parliament (and I believe the Welsh Assembly) which is a kind of mix between FPTP and the d'Hondt list system.
    Ah yes, it would indeed make sense to see a clamour for change at last.

    Quick question, if there were a referendum on voting systems with several (ie. more than 2) options to choose from, which voting system would be used to determine the winner?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    AnotherDave/Kle4 - Yes, we will need to wait for the election to confirm. RichardTyndall - Respect and the Greens were not then fully established
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mick_Pork said:



    I'm also equally sure Huhne would like to turn the clock way, WAY back too and do things differently.

    Hey be fair!

    Huhne may have been done for speeding, but don't think he was ever accused of fiddling his mileometer as well ;-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    kle4- Yes also enjoyed the new Star Trek too
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    kle4 said:

    I wonder what the seat distribution will be like in the next parliament if the voting figures are something like the below (which I think are fairly plausible assuming the election is in May 2015)

    Conservative 33
    Labour 32
    Libdem 13
    UKIP 12
    Others 10

    In this scenario, is it not fairly possible that Labour would still have a majority? I could see the DT leading the campaign for AMS.

    AMS?
    Additional Member System - used in the Scottish Parliament (and I believe the Welsh Assembly) which is a kind of mix between FPTP and the d'Hondt list system.
    Yes tis not bad as a system. Think they have something vaguely similar in Germany too ie mix of proportional list and constituency. Given our three or four party system ( if sustained) this is a better system than fptp. ( and I am serious on that despite it being Saturday night!)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    And he has already flat out denied it.

    What's the betting that three drunk hacks made the whole thing up? It's significant that the 4th person (I think a senior civil servant) has just said he 'can't remember the exact form of words used'.
    Yes. He's not backing up Mr Feldman's version of events. That's significant.

    He's not backing the journalists: that's significant.

    He's just staying out of it. Perhaps he's a leftie?
  • If I was a betting man I'd be putting something on Cameron being gone fairly soon - probably this year.

    Whether or not any of his crowd used the alleged terminology, everyone knows it is what he thinks. Of course, he is labouring under the misapprehension that the core Conservative activists of yesteryear are in fact still Conservative activists. Many, such as myself, have not been for about 2 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    Maltese give us 5 points!

    Malta never wanted to be independent of the UK, and wished to be incorporated into Britain, like the French DOM TOMs. Why the F we didn't agree I don't know.

    We could have had our own Mediterranean island, even if it is a bit shabby around Valletta (the second island of Gozo is nice)

    Ditto the Seychelles. They wanted to stay British. We should have kept them, too.
    Winds of change I guess, people at the top felt uncomfortable hanging on to such places as though it must always be oppressive colonialism to do so - heck, you still find people in Britain saying we should just 'hand back' the Falklands, Gibraltar and even NI!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    7 from Ireland!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    There is also the fact that none of the witnesses agree with Mr Feldman's version of events.

    "Sources said the peer came out of a private room in the hotel and spoke to journalists who were on a table in a public area with a “fifth man”, understood to be a senior civil servant.

    The “fifth man” was said to have said he could not recollect the exact words used. The Daily Telegraph said it stood by its report. It and the other newspapers have not named the member of Mr Cameron’s circle behind the slur."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10066453/Swivel-eyed-loons-hit-back-at-Prime-Minister.html
    Yes: you have 3 hacks short of a story and who are probably good mates. A shadowy 'senior conservative' who it is easy to blame. A civil servant who refused to back either side.

    Feldman is a smart guy. I'd be surprised (unless he was drunk) to say something that daft to journalists.
    The story has moved on now. The Mail on Sunday have Mr Cameron calling Conservative activists swivel eyed loons too.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/335862417282191360
    Is this an unsourced, unattributed allegation as well?

    It's just sh1t-stirrers sticking the knife it.

    I've not seen any evidence to suggest any of this is true (can't read the mail front page though)
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Charles said:

    Mick_Pork said:



    I'm also equally sure Huhne would like to turn the clock way, WAY back too and do things differently.

    Hey be fair!

    Huhne may have been done for speeding, but don't think he was ever accused of fiddling his mileometer as well ;-)
    Actually during the tortured arguments about how far his car had travelled in one day to an airport some were pretty much implying that.

    But lest he feel left out tonight. ;)
    Ian Hyland ‏@HylandIan 2h

    Not even Chris Huhne would give any points to this lot #eurovision
    Retweeted 117 times
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    If I was a betting man I'd be putting something on Cameron being gone fairly soon - probably this year.

    Whether or not any of his crowd used the alleged terminology, everyone knows it is what he thinks. Of course, he is labouring under the misapprehension that the core Conservative activists of yesteryear are in fact still Conservative activists. Many, such as myself, have not been for about 2 years.

    Gone to unaligned, UKIP or Labour if I might be so bold as to enquire?

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    @kle

    AV of course!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Maltese give us 5 points!

    Malta never wanted to be independent of the UK, and wished to be incorporated into Britain, like the French DOM TOMs. Why the F we didn't agree I don't know.

    We could have had our own Mediterranean island, even if it is a bit shabby around Valletta (the second island of Gozo is nice)

    Ditto the Seychelles. They wanted to stay British. We should have kept them, too.
    Winds of change I guess, people at the top felt uncomfortable hanging on to such places as though it must always be oppressive colonialism to do so - heck, you still find people saying we should just 'hand back' the Falklands, Gibraltar and even NI!
    I think I've completed my Excel file listing all territories occupied/controlled by Britain and the US with areas and current population levels.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    1 point from Slovenia too!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    And he has already flat out denied it.

    What's the betting that three drunk hacks made the whole thing up? It's significant that the 4th person (I think a senior civil servant) has just said he 'can't remember the exact form of words used'.
    Yes. He's not backing up Mr Feldman's version of events. That's significant.

    He's not backing the journalists: that's significant.

    He's just staying out of it. Perhaps he's a leftie?
    The front pages of the Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Times, and the Mail on Sunday tell Conservative Party activists that the Chairman/Leader of the Conservative Party loathes them.

    That's the issue.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Mick_Pork said:

    Charles said:

    Feldman is a smart guy.

    Cameron’s pal and another shady crony...

    After a second Tory Treasurer was forced to resign in embarrassing circumstances, you would have thought David Cameron would proceed more carefully when it comes to party fundraising.

    It was party chairman Andrew Feldman, Cameron’s oldest and closest friend, who approved both appointments — prompting the nickname ‘Crony chairman’.

    Yet, regardless of this unfortunate track record, who was Feldman entertaining to drinks in his third-floor office at Tory Party HQ only the other day? It was none other than debonair property speculator Christopher Moran, who has been censured several times by the London Stock Exchange for a series of controversial share purchases and who holds the dubious privilege of being the first person in 300 years to be barred for life by Lloyd’s of London for ‘dishonourable conduct’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2133623/David-Camerons-pal-Andrew-Feldman-shady-crony-Christopher-Moran.html

    You must be thinking of a different Feldman than Cammie's best chum. Marty perhaps? ;)


    All party fundraisers deal with some fairly dubious people. Anyway, I though Cruddas was finally found not to have done what he was alleged to have done?
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder what the seat distribution will be like in the next parliament if the voting figures are something like the below (which I think are fairly plausible assuming the election is in May 2015)

    Conservative 33
    Labour 32
    Libdem 13
    UKIP 12
    Others 10

    In this scenario, is it not fairly possible that Labour would still have a majority? I could see the DT leading the campaign for AMS.

    AMS?
    Additional Member System - used in the Scottish Parliament (and I believe the Welsh Assembly) which is a kind of mix between FPTP and the d'Hondt list system.
    Ah yes, it would indeed make sense to see a clamour for change at last.

    Quick question, if there were a referendum on voting systems with several (ie. more than 2) options to choose from, which voting system would be used to determine the winner?

    I'd like to think any referendum on the question would not be held in such shambolic fashion. The same format as the AV referendum would be the only way - status quo, or one specified alternative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Denmark win.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Denmark seem to have sewn this one up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    And he has already flat out denied it.

    What's the betting that three drunk hacks made the whole thing up? It's significant that the 4th person (I think a senior civil servant) has just said he 'can't remember the exact form of words used'.
    Yes. He's not backing up Mr Feldman's version of events. That's significant.

    He's not backing the journalists: that's significant.

    He's just staying out of it. Perhaps he's a leftie?
    The front pages of the Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Times, and the Mail on Sunday tell Conservative Party activists that the Chairman/Leader of the Conservative Party loathes them.

    That's the issue.

    Indeed. Many people will see that as confirmation of their fears regardless of whether or not more details emerge from this latest irritance, and the sense is denials won't even be believed.

    I like Cameron even now more than I do the Tory right, but I'm really finding it hard to see a way for he and his clique to come out of this on top. The party has moved on, and either they abandon everything they've tried to do to cling on, or eventually even their exalted positions will not be enough to prevent their party commiting suicide to get rid of them, even if they don't realise that is what they are doing with all this infighting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Oh they declare the winner with 4 countries left???
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    And he has already flat out denied it.

    What's the betting that three drunk hacks made the whole thing up? It's significant that the 4th person (I think a senior civil servant) has just said he 'can't remember the exact form of words used'.
    Yes. He's not backing up Mr Feldman's version of events. That's significant.

    He's not backing the journalists: that's significant.

    He's just staying out of it. Perhaps he's a leftie?
    The front pages of the Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Times, and the Mail on Sunday tell Conservative Party activists that the Chairman/Leader of the Conservative Party loathes them.

    That's the issue.

    I can see the damage it causes.

    I'm just wondering if there is any evidence at all?

    I've become deeply cynical about our newspapers. They seem to have lost all sense of responsibility over the last 3 years or so. Any story, no matter how tenuous, that sells is what counts.
  • kle4 said:

    If I was a betting man I'd be putting something on Cameron being gone fairly soon - probably this year.

    Whether or not any of his crowd used the alleged terminology, everyone knows it is what he thinks. Of course, he is labouring under the misapprehension that the core Conservative activists of yesteryear are in fact still Conservative activists. Many, such as myself, have not been for about 2 years.

    Gone to unaligned, UKIP or Labour if I might be so bold as to enquire?

    Well, officially unaligned, as I have not joined any other party. Not doing any campaigning - don't really have the time anyway since I finished uni and started work. I would never sully myself by voting Labour, and will probably vote UKIP next time. Although, if someone like Hammond was Tory leader and they started to actually be a conservative party again I would probably be quite easy to tempt back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Well, it's good to see at least one person with at least some stomach for a proper fight, rather than rolling onto their backs and inviting UKIP to scratch their bellies.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    2 more from Switzerland!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255


    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    I wonder what the seat distribution will be like in the next parliament if the voting figures are something like the below (which I think are fairly plausible assuming the election is in May 2015)

    Conservative 33
    Labour 32
    Libdem 13
    UKIP 12
    Others 10

    In this scenario, is it not fairly possible that Labour would still have a majority? I could see the DT leading the campaign for AMS.

    AMS?
    Additional Member System - used in the Scottish Parliament (and I believe the Welsh Assembly) which is a kind of mix between FPTP and the d'Hondt list system.
    Ah yes, it would indeed make sense to see a clamour for change at last.

    Quick question, if there were a referendum on voting systems with several (ie. more than 2) options to choose from, which voting system would be used to determine the winner?

    I'd like to think any referendum on the question would not be held in such shambolic fashion. The same format as the AV referendum would be the only way - status quo, or one specified alternative.
    Well, that's PR^2 out as an option then

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Congrats to Denmark for winning Eurovision.

    We didn't come last, we got 23 points!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    There is also the fact that none of the witnesses agree with Mr Feldman's version of events.

    "Sources said the peer came out of a private room in the hotel and spoke to journalists who were on a table in a public area with a “fifth man”, understood to be a senior civil servant.

    The “fifth man” was said to have said he could not recollect the exact words used. The Daily Telegraph said it stood by its report. It and the other newspapers have not named the member of Mr Cameron’s circle behind the slur."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10066453/Swivel-eyed-loons-hit-back-at-Prime-Minister.html
    Yes: you have 3 hacks short of a story and who are probably good mates. A shadowy 'senior conservative' who it is easy to blame. A civil servant who refused to back either side.

    Feldman is a smart guy. I'd be surprised (unless he was drunk) to say something that daft to journalists.
    The story has moved on now. The Mail on Sunday have Mr Cameron calling Conservative activists swivel eyed loons too.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/335862417282191360
    Is this an unsourced, unattributed allegation as well?

    It's just sh1t-stirrers sticking the knife it.

    I've not seen any evidence to suggest any of this is true (can't read the mail front page though)
    Aren't you just done with Cameron, now, though? I know you are posh but surely you can see this Etonian twit surrounded by Etonians who employs Etonians is, it turns out, a calamitous choice.

    The Tories must make a lifetime vow: when it comes to leaders, NO MORE ETONIANS. Ideally, no more public schoolboys. Aside from all their huge problems with detachedness and effeteness, Etonians are simply too much of a target and too easy to ridicule and rile.

    You haven't won a majority with a poshboy in charge since 1959. How much more proof do you need? Cameron's posh incompetence has split the right. He is a disaster.
    He's reasonably good at being PM, but he's not great at politics. That said he was dealing with a very difficult situation - a resurgent UKIP, a fractious, ill-disciplined rabble on his own backbenchers, a mischevious and commercially desperate press, the former party of protest in government, a poisonous economic inheritance.

    I'm not sure anyone could have handled all that particularly well.

    On the scorecard: welfare reforms in progress, education reforms in progress, economy slowly turning around and performing ahead of our nearest peers. Overall not actually that bad.

    I'll give you the OE thing though. It's not actually true, but it's certainly the impression that he gives (and there is a certain type of OE that sticks in their comfort zone. I have a few OE friends, but I don't particularly seek out the school network - there are others that never leave it). I think it's more just he is surrounded by untrustworthy and scheming sh1ts, so he falls back on those whose loyalty he can rely on - his oldest friends.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    If I was a betting man I'd be putting something on Cameron being gone fairly soon - probably this year.

    Whether or not any of his crowd used the alleged terminology, everyone knows it is what he thinks. Of course, he is labouring under the misapprehension that the core Conservative activists of yesteryear are in fact still Conservative activists. Many, such as myself, have not been for about 2 years.

    Are you orange as in DUP or as in rightwing LibDem?

  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Bobajob said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    So when Labour loses wwc support its likely to go direct to UKIP who will overtake the Conservatives in these areas.

    That was exactly my point. In the past people have criticised the Tories for not tactical voting (although arguably they had no option if they figured out the Libs were just diluted Labour which is what so many of them seem to be).

    Perhaps we could see wholesale Tory voting for UKIP in the Northern marginals - and a shock result for Labour. A regional split like that may not be the worst thing for the right.
    What the hell are you on about Charles ???

    There aren't any Lab-UKIP northern marginals but there are numerous Lab-Con and Con-Lab northern marginals.

    The Conservatives need to stop the hemorrhage of their voters to UKIP not encourage it.

    If UKIP start making gains from Labour it means that there is no chance of a Conservative majority.

    Isn't a Conservative majority what you want ?

    Let me try to explain once again - to achieve an overall majority the Conservatives will need to make gains from Labour in northern wwc towns.
    I'm not talking about strategy - I'm musing on where there could be surprising outcomes.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour do a lot worse than expected - and the biggest scope for an upset is if UKIP starts winning Lab-Con marginals in the North.

    Logic is this:

    (1) For tribal reasons many right-ish WWC in the North won't vote Tory but will vote UKIP
    (2) Lab vote depressed to NOTA because EdM is uninspiring
    (3) UKIP wins many former Labour now NOTA
    (4) Con supporters vote for UKIP either from conviction or for tactical reasons
    (5) result is UKIP wins seats from Labour.

    Not ideal for the Tories, not a bad outcome for the right. Potential for a CDU-CSU relationship (although more balanced) with UKIP in north and the Tories in south?
    Highly unlikely - as a range of high-street bookmakers will attest.

    Have to say Bobajob, having worked in bookmakers odds compiling for over ten years, the political odds compilers are nowhere near as sure of their prices as the traders that do sports.

    Firstly, there is no liquidity on betfair, which most bookies just copy now, and secondly it is not a job they would usually employ someone to do, it's the second job of a trader that specialises in a diff market. Thirdly I would say it is a market where the money shapes the market more than t he guy that prices it up.

    Just look at some of the Eastleigh and South Shilds prices... Ukip were EVS to come second in SS and were 1/5 soon after. The odds compilers are shooting in the dark until people like Mike and tim get th baseball bats out and batter the market into shape.

    You could be right about ukip, but don't rely on the "bookies know best" to justify it as they know shit, or at least, less than people on here
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Well, it's good to see at least one person with at least some stomach for a proper fight, rather than rolling onto their backs and inviting UKIP to scratch their bellies.
    Well, f*ck you Matthew Parris.
    You misunderstand me, perhaps. I'm not heavily invested in who would win in a fight between the Cameroons or Tory-UKIPers, but seeing the ruling clique so meekly give in, to so desperately chase after the Tory-UKIPers, is just pathetic. If a civil war is going to happen then from a pure spectacle standpoint, I want to see people battling it out, not a one sided massacre as the Cameroons wither away, too afraid to stand up for themselves except in sniping press leaks.

    That's why it's good he's doing this now, even if he fails in his intent - the resurgent UKIPers-Tories need to be challenged to ensure they are indeed the option most Tories/people want, if they aren't they might roll in on an angry wave, to be met by an equally angry response.

    So fight. Labour will provide the popcorn.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Charles said:

    Feldman is a smart guy.

    Cameron’s pal and another shady crony...

    After a second Tory Treasurer was forced to resign in embarrassing circumstances, you would have thought David Cameron would proceed more carefully when it comes to party fundraising.

    It was party chairman Andrew Feldman, Cameron’s oldest and closest friend, who approved both appointments — prompting the nickname ‘Crony chairman’.

    Yet, regardless of this unfortunate track record, who was Feldman entertaining to drinks in his third-floor office at Tory Party HQ only the other day? It was none other than debonair property speculator Christopher Moran, who has been censured several times by the London Stock Exchange for a series of controversial share purchases and who holds the dubious privilege of being the first person in 300 years to be barred for life by Lloyd’s of London for ‘dishonourable conduct’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2133623/David-Camerons-pal-Andrew-Feldman-shady-crony-Christopher-Moran.html

    You must be thinking of a different Feldman than Cammie's best chum. Marty perhaps? ;)
    All party fundraisers deal with some fairly dubious people. Anyway, I though Cruddas was finally found not to have done what he was alleged to have done?
    Cap donations at £1000 per year per donor, and get rid of FPTP, we might get somewhere, until then watch party membership sink into the gutter.

    So long as you cap union money as well, I'm all for that.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    SeanT said:

    Matthew Parris has lost it. He wrote an hysterical, mincing piece about UKIP last week. Now this.

    Why? The fact is millions of Brits have held UKIP-type hard right wing views for EVAH, but until recently they have been forced to vote Tory for lack of a non-quasi-fascist alternative.

    Now democracy gives them the alternative, and it existentially threatens the Tories, and his answer is to run away, like a bloody girl guide.

    A slightly homophobic post Sean. Are you drunk?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    UKIP have already taken 20? 25%? of 2010 Conservative voters.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,704
    Ed Miliband has as much chance of being PM as the UK does of winning Eurovision. Yeah, it is a theoretical outcome, but come on - get real....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Charles said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Charles said:

    Feldman is a smart guy.

    Cameron’s pal and another shady crony...

    After a second Tory Treasurer was forced to resign in embarrassing circumstances, you would have thought David Cameron would proceed more carefully when it comes to party fundraising.

    It was party chairman Andrew Feldman, Cameron’s oldest and closest friend, who approved both appointments — prompting the nickname ‘Crony chairman’.

    Yet, regardless of this unfortunate track record, who was Feldman entertaining to drinks in his third-floor office at Tory Party HQ only the other day? It was none other than debonair property speculator Christopher Moran, who has been censured several times by the London Stock Exchange for a series of controversial share purchases and who holds the dubious privilege of being the first person in 300 years to be barred for life by Lloyd’s of London for ‘dishonourable conduct’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2133623/David-Camerons-pal-Andrew-Feldman-shady-crony-Christopher-Moran.html

    You must be thinking of a different Feldman than Cammie's best chum. Marty perhaps? ;)
    All party fundraisers deal with some fairly dubious people. Anyway, I though Cruddas was finally found not to have done what he was alleged to have done?

    Then I presume you think it's only a matter of time before Cruddas is reappointed as Party treasurer. The point you appear to have missed is that there's a pattern of this from tory treasurers and those who were charged to oversee them.

    You can also contrast how the Cruddas story was handled by Cammie with the current one involving his best friend.

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/02/lord-ashcroft-former-treasurer-peter-cruddas-wins-another-victory-in-his-bid-to-clear-his-name.html

    Not exactly a ringing endorsement of the leadership, is it?


    If the Cameroons don't like the chumocracy tag then I suggest Cammie not appointing his best chum to such a crucial influential position, and then launching a PR and spin war against four papers to protect him, may not be the best way to counter it.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Ed Miliband has as much chance of being PM as the UK does of winning Eurovision. Yeah, it is a theoretical outcome, but come on - get real....

    Is this hopelessness based on any evidence or just your own wishful thinking?

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    samonipad said:

    Bobajob said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    So when Labour loses wwc support its likely to go direct to UKIP who will overtake the Conservatives in these areas.

    That was exactly my point. In the past people have criticised the Tories for not tactical voting (although arguably they had no option if they figured out the Libs were just diluted Labour which is what so many of them seem to be).

    Perhaps we could see wholesale Tory voting for UKIP in the Northern marginals - and a shock result for Labour. A regional split like that may not be the worst thing for the right.
    What the hell are you on about Charles ???

    There aren't any Lab-UKIP northern marginals but there are numerous Lab-Con and Con-Lab northern marginals.

    The Conservatives need to stop the hemorrhage of their voters to UKIP not encourage it.

    If UKIP start making gains from Labour it means that there is no chance of a Conservative majority.

    Isn't a Conservative majority what you want ?

    Let me try to explain once again - to achieve an overall majority the Conservatives will need to make gains from Labour in northern wwc towns.
    I'm not talking about strategy - I'm musing on where there could be surprising outcomes.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour do a lot worse than expected - and the biggest scope for an upset is if UKIP starts winning Lab-Con marginals in the North.

    Logic is this:

    (1) For tribal reasons many right-ish WWC in the North won't vote Tory but will vote UKIP
    (2) Lab vote depressed to NOTA because EdM is uninspiring
    (3) UKIP wins many former Labour now NOTA
    (4) Con supporters vote for UKIP either from conviction or for tactical reasons
    (5) result is UKIP wins seats from Labour.

    Not ideal for the Tories, not a bad outcome for the right. Potential for a CDU-CSU relationship (although more balanced) with UKIP in north and the Tories in south?
    Highly unlikely - as a range of high-street bookmakers will attest.

    Have to say Bobajob, having worked in bookmakers odds compiling for over ten years, the political odds compilers are nowhere near as sure of their prices as the traders that do sports.

    Firstly, there is no liquidity on betfair, which most bookies just copy now, and secondly it is not a job they would usually employ someone to do, it's the second job of a trader that specialises in a diff market. Thirdly I would say it is a market where the money shapes the market more than t he guy that prices it up.

    Just look at some of the Eastleigh and South Shilds prices... Ukip were EVS to come second in SS and were 1/5 soon after. The odds compilers are shooting in the dark until people like Mike and tim get th baseball bats out and batter the market into shape.

    You could be right about ukip, but don't rely on the "bookies know best" to justify it as they know shit, or at least, less than people on here
    I take your point, but let's just say that I won't be piling in on Ukip winning Coalfield Central.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    UKIP have already taken 20? 25%? of 2010 Conservative voters.

    They took a large chunk of 2010 Conservative voters in 2009 as well.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Well, it's good to see at least one person with at least some stomach for a proper fight, rather than rolling onto their backs and inviting UKIP to scratch their bellies.
    Well, f*ck you Matthew Parris.
    One feels like asking Matthew Paris what's more in the British liberal tradition, parliamentary democracy, or the European Union? Open free trade deals with all, or protectionist barriers around Europe?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Well, it's good to see at least one person with at least some stomach for a proper fight, rather than rolling onto their backs and inviting UKIP to scratch their bellies.
    Well, f*ck you Matthew Parris.
    You misunderstand me, perhaps. I'm not heavily invested in who would win in a fight between the Cameroons or Tory-UKIPers, but seeing the ruling clique so meekly give in, to so desperately chase after the Tory-UKIPers, is just pathetic. If a civil war is going to happen then from a pure spectacle standpoint, I want to see people battling it out, not a one sided massacre as the Cameroons wither away, too afraid to stand up for themselves except in sniping press leaks.
    It's public support for UKIP that's driving this. The Cameroons need to convince the public, not the Conservative Party.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Charles said:

    tim said:

    Charles said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Charles said:

    Feldman is a smart guy.

    Cameron’s pal and another shady crony...

    After a second Tory Treasurer was forced to resign in embarrassing circumstances, you would have thought David Cameron would proceed more carefully when it comes to party fundraising.

    It was party chairman Andrew Feldman, Cameron’s oldest and closest friend, who approved both appointments — prompting the nickname ‘Crony chairman’.

    Yet, regardless of this unfortunate track record, who was Feldman entertaining to drinks in his third-floor office at Tory Party HQ only the other day? It was none other than debonair property speculator Christopher Moran, who has been censured several times by the London Stock Exchange for a series of controversial share purchases and who holds the dubious privilege of being the first person in 300 years to be barred for life by Lloyd’s of London for ‘dishonourable conduct’.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2133623/David-Camerons-pal-Andrew-Feldman-shady-crony-Christopher-Moran.html

    You must be thinking of a different Feldman than Cammie's best chum. Marty perhaps? ;)
    All party fundraisers deal with some fairly dubious people. Anyway, I though Cruddas was finally found not to have done what he was alleged to have done?
    Cap donations at £1000 per year per donor, and get rid of FPTP, we might get somewhere, until then watch party membership sink into the gutter.
    So long as you cap union money as well, I'm all for that.

    Looks like we have cross-party agreement.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    edited May 2013
    The UK last won Eurovision when a resurgent Labour Party won an election against a broken, sleazy Tory government...
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    kle4 said:

    If I was a betting man I'd be putting something on Cameron being gone fairly soon - probably this year.

    Whether or not any of his crowd used the alleged terminology, everyone knows it is what he thinks. Of course, he is labouring under the misapprehension that the core Conservative activists of yesteryear are in fact still Conservative activists. Many, such as myself, have not been for about 2 years.

    Gone to unaligned, UKIP or Labour if I might be so bold as to enquire?

    Well, officially unaligned, as I have not joined any other party. Not doing any campaigning - don't really have the time anyway since I finished uni and started work. I would never sully myself by voting Labour, and will probably vote UKIP next time. Although, if someone like Hammond was Tory leader and they started to actually be a conservative party again I would probably be quite easy to tempt back.
    Odd to see such a stridently conservative position in one so young. Wasn't like that in my day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Well, it's good to see at least one person with at least some stomach for a proper fight, rather than rolling onto their backs and inviting UKIP to scratch their bellies.
    Well, f*ck you Matthew Parris.
    You misunderstand me, perhaps. I'm not heavily invested in who would win in a fight between the Cameroons or Tory-UKIPers, but seeing the ruling clique so meekly give in, to so desperately chase after the Tory-UKIPers, is just pathetic. If a civil war is going to happen then from a pure spectacle standpoint, I want to see people battling it out, not a one sided massacre as the Cameroons wither away, too afraid to stand up for themselves except in sniping press leaks.
    It's public support for UKIP that's driving this. The Cameroons need to convince the public, not the Conservative Party.
    If they are to do the former, they need the latter behind them to do it. They can hardly convince the public not to support UKIP if lots of their own people seem to support UKIP, or wish to be more like them at least.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Matthew Parris has lost his mojo. He has turned bitter as he see's his aim, (in all his writings) for the Tories to become Cammo Creampuffs, fade away under the present UKIP onslaught


  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Well, it's good to see at least one person with at least some stomach for a proper fight, rather than rolling onto their backs and inviting UKIP to scratch their bellies.
    Well, f*ck you Matthew Parris.
    You misunderstand me, perhaps. I'm not heavily invested in who would win in a fight between the Cameroons or Tory-UKIPers, but seeing the ruling clique so meekly give in, to so desperately chase after the Tory-UKIPers, is just pathetic. If a civil war is going to happen then from a pure spectacle standpoint, I want to see people battling it out, not a one sided massacre as the Cameroons wither away, too afraid to stand up for themselves except in sniping press leaks.
    It's public support for UKIP that's driving this. The Cameroons need to convince the public, not the Conservative Party.
    If they are to do the former, they need the latter behind them to do it. They can hardly convince the public not to support UKIP if lots of their own people seem to support UKIP, or wish to be more like them at least.
    The party has backed Mr Cameron since 2005. He's had plenty of time to sell his little tree to the public.

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    And he has already flat out denied it.

    What's the betting that three drunk hacks made the whole thing up? It's significant that the 4th person (I think a senior civil servant) has just said he 'can't remember the exact form of words used'.
    Yes. He's not backing up Mr Feldman's version of events. That's significant.

    He's not backing the journalists: that's significant.

    He's just staying out of it. Perhaps he's a leftie?
    The front pages of the Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Times, and the Mail on Sunday tell Conservative Party activists that the Chairman/Leader of the Conservative Party loathes them.

    That's the issue.

    I can see the damage it causes.

    I'm just wondering if there is any evidence at all?

    I've become deeply cynical about our newspapers. They seem to have lost all sense of responsibility over the last 3 years or so. Any story, no matter how tenuous, that sells is what counts.
    The so-called right-wing newspapers (The Daily Wail, The Daily Nimbygraph, The Daily Express and the Sun) have been stirring up the population for the last 3 years trying to sell more papers by hysterical reports on immigration and Europe, without offering any coherent solutions. There certainly are no immediate solutions. They have fostered a negative view of what is possible and are responsible for the protest vote which has boosted ukip. They are likely to wake up in 2015 with rED as PM and of course then they will be frothing about socialism and our ever-closer-union with Europe. But that will sell papers to their readers too!
    Newswhores.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    To be fair he's up against the fearsome strategic skills of those who could in no way be described as mad swivel-eyed loons.
    Ian ‏@Mancman10 16 May

    Farage says UKIP willing to do a pact with Dorries & whoever else from the tory party,Carry on it will cost him any Lab votes he's getting!
    Who dares gainsay Dorries? ;)

    All this Con/UKIP pact drivel is merely Farage taking the p*ss out gullible eurosceptic tories and sticking the knife into Cammie as he does so. No tory leader could possibly allow it and certainly not Cammie. You get elected on a tory manifesto and take the tory whip as a conservative MP, not a nonexistent kipper one.

    The irony is Dorries pact nonsense is arguably much more damaging then her jungle exploits and clearly far more against the interests of her own party.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Tonight's YouGov

    Labour 40

    Tories 29

    UKIP 14

    LD 9
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Paywall - Scottish Independence polling

    The Panelbase poll of 1,004 Scottish voters for the Sunday Times puts support for Scotland breaking away from Britain at 36%, while 44% prefer to remain with Britain.

    However, when asked how they would vote if it looked as if Britain was going to leave the EU, 44% said they would most likely vote for independence, and the same percentage would vote against it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Tonight's YouGov

    Labour 40

    Tories 29

    UKIP 14

    LD 9

    Um, Outlier?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    73% of voters see the Tories divided

    36% of voters see Labour divided
  • Bobajob said:

    If I was a betting man I'd be putting something on Cameron being gone fairly soon - probably this year.

    Whether or not any of his crowd used the alleged terminology, everyone knows it is what he thinks. Of course, he is labouring under the misapprehension that the core Conservative activists of yesteryear are in fact still Conservative activists. Many, such as myself, have not been for about 2 years.

    Are you orange as in DUP or as in rightwing LibDem?

    Neither really - definitely not a Libdem! I can't really remember why I chose the tag. I certainly do have some sympathy with the DUP, but am not in NI, and wouldn't class myself as a supporter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Changes in the panelbase poll from their last poll in March

    Yes no change

    No minus 2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    The Nigel Evans story has become a bit more interesting (from the paywall)

    NIGEL EVANS, the deputy Speaker of the House of Commons, is facing renewed pressure after a third man came forward to allege that the Tory MP had sexually assaulted him.

    The man, who is in his twenties, is understood to have made a statement to Lancashire police about the incident, which is alleged to have taken place in the House of Commons two years ago.

    .....It is understood that the latest complainant decided to approach police after learning of the MP’s arrest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Paywall - Scottish Independence polling

    The Panelbase poll of 1,004 Scottish voters for the Sunday Times puts support for Scotland breaking away from Britain at 36%, while 44% prefer to remain with Britain.

    However, when asked how they would vote if it looked as if Britain was going to leave the EU, 44% said they would most likely vote for independence, and the same percentage would vote against it.

    Very tight. Always thought the unionists were over confident. Hopefully they can keep up that lead.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    kle4 said:

    Paywall - Scottish Independence polling

    The Panelbase poll of 1,004 Scottish voters for the Sunday Times puts support for Scotland breaking away from Britain at 36%, while 44% prefer to remain with Britain.

    However, when asked how they would vote if it looked as if Britain was going to leave the EU, 44% said they would most likely vote for independence, and the same percentage would vote against it.

    Very tight. Always thought the unionists were over confident. Hopefully they can keep up that lead.
    The proximity to the GE also changes things and not entirely in the way you expect.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    The Nigel Evans story has become a bit more interesting (from the paywall)

    NIGEL EVANS, the deputy Speaker of the House of Commons, is facing renewed pressure after a third man came forward to allege that the Tory MP had sexually assaulted him.

    The man, who is in his twenties, is understood to have made a statement to Lancashire police about the incident, which is alleged to have taken place in the House of Commons two years ago.

    .....It is understood that the latest complainant decided to approach police after learning of the MP’s arrest.

    Sean F thought UKIP could win a Ribble Valley by-election.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ribblevalley/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Paywall re loons

    Feldman’s name began circulating on Saturday as a possible source of the remarks — a name confirmed by a witness spoken to by The Sunday Times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited May 2013

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matthew Parris - “Along with millions (I believe) of liberal Tory supporters, and millions more still undecided, I will never vote for any Conservative candidates who pay UKIP protection money by signing up to their policies in return for being given a clear run. We must expose any such deals and punish at the ballot box those who connive in them. It’s simple. A vote for a Tory- UKIP collaborator is a vote for UKIP…This week it began to appear that to cut any ice in Tory politics, you have to cut up rough and treat your party like a bar-room brawl. Well, here it is in bar-room language: cut a deal with UKIP, and I’m outta here. And (the Tories would find) outta here too would be millions more”

    Well, it's good to see at least one person with at least some stomach for a proper fight, rather than rolling onto their backs and inviting UKIP to scratch their bellies.
    Well, f*ck you Matthew Parris.
    You misunderstand me, perhaps. I'm not heavily invested in who would win in a fight between the Cameroons or Tory-UKIPers, but seeing the ruling clique so meekly give in, to so desperately chase after the Tory-UKIPers, is just pathetic. If a civil war is going to happen then from a pure spectacle standpoint, I want to see people battling it out, not a one sided massacre as the Cameroons wither away, too afraid to stand up for themselves except in sniping press leaks.
    It's public support for UKIP that's driving this. The Cameroons need to convince the public, not the Conservative Party.
    If they are to do the former, they need the latter behind them to do it. They can hardly convince the public not to support UKIP if lots of their own people seem to support UKIP, or wish to be more like them at least.
    The party has backed Mr Cameron since 2005. He's had plenty of time to sell his little tree to the public.

    He could have done a better job, indeed, but at present he is losing his base, and that's even more critical than not having won the public in droves, as it prevents him from even meaningfully trying to convince the wider public, as he cannot fully rely on that formerly core vote - he cannot prevent a vision for the public to back, because his party won't shill it for him. He may not have succeed with the public before, but he had his foot in the door at least. Not now.

    Night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    KLE4/SeanT/AnothDave/Socrates - Cameron's dilemma is he needs BOTH UKIP votes AND liberal Tories like Parris' votes to win a majority, at the moment he is at risk of losing both, at which point there could be no Tory Party left by 2015. Major is the only figure since the Thatcher era to build a broad enough Tory coalition to win in 1992 before splitting it again in 1997, Cameron has to try and emulate Major's 1992 campaign, which means a little more provincial populism and a little less Metropolitan liberalism, but not so much he loses the moderate middle either!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Sunday Times have a piece that isn't good for google

    My 100,000 emails that prove Google has lied

    A former salesman for the firm says its claims to have traded only in Ireland are false and costing hundreds of millions in lost taxes
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Paywall

    THE country’s most senior policeman, Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe, was under growing pressure to resign last night over the leaking of details of the police inquiry into the Andrew Mitchell Plebgate affair.

    Friends of Mitchell have used a freedom of information (FoI) request to reveal Hogan-Howe had a private meeting with journalists just before they wrote articles claiming officers had found no evidence to support the former cabinet minister’s version of events.

    The reply from Hogan-Howe’s office to the FoI request suggested that the meeting did take place but failed to disclose details of what was said. Mitchell’s friends are now calling for Hogan-Howe to explain what was said at the meeting and provide details of his diary, tape recordings and notes.

    The failure to disclose details of the meeting six weeks ago has prompted allegations of a cover-up and calls from senior Tories for the commissioner — who has barred his officers from having secret conversations with the press — to resign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    Tim - 2010 was Cleggmania though, which will not be an issue in 2015. Cameron needs to win back UKIP voters and win over many who voted for Clegg, it is his one and only chance to win!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    2015 vote order
    Con, Lab, UKIP, LibDem

    2015 seat order
    Lab, Con, LibDem, UKIP

    FPTP...
    R.I.P. ...
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    HYUFD said:

    KLE4/SeanT/AnothDave/Socrates - Cameron's dilemma is he needs BOTH UKIP votes AND liberal Tories like Parris' votes to win a majority, at the moment he is at risk of losing both, at which point there could be no Tory Party left by 2015. Major is the only figure since the Thatcher era to build a broad enough Tory coalition to win in 1992 before splitting it again in 1997, Cameron has to try and emulate Major's 1992 campaign, which means a little more provincial populism and a little less Metropolitan liberalism, but not so much he loses the moderate middle either!

    Cameron could only get 36% against Brown when the right was united.
    Maybe he's just overrated and a bit shite.
    Remember the golden rule. PB tory anecdote trumps such trifles and the anecdote of swivel-eyed loons may be the most potent of all. ;)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    @TSE
    Google Adsense partners in the UK get paid by/have a contract with Google Ireland.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RodCrosby said:

    2015 vote order
    Con, Lab, UKIP, LibDem

    2015 seat order
    Lab, Con, LibDem, UKIP

    FPTP...
    R.I.P. ...

    A minor technicality I know, but how exactly?
    The only conceivably way would perhaps be a lib lab coalition with a referendum on it pushing it to 2020 at the very earliest if it won. You can also be 100% certain any referendum won't be on AV. Even if the lib dems did think they could push for another one on voting reform that quickly after their AV fiasco. The electoral math would also have to fall just right to get them another coalition in the first place.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited May 2013
    Tim - Yes, but most of those votes went to the LDs even pre-debate, not back to Labour. As I said the election will be decided on where Clegg voters in 2010 and UKIP voters in 2013 decide to place their cross in 2015!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Mick_Pork said:



    A minor technicality I know, but how exactly?

    The Tories should become champions of electoral reform NOW!

    PR^2 is tailor-made for them, and the LibDems. UKIP and most of the minor parties would come on board.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,543
    edited May 2013
    New Opinium poll puts UKIP up to 20 and within 7 of the tories; Labour's lead recovers to 10.:

    A new Opinium/Observer poll has Ukip attracting 20% of the vote, with Labour on 37%, the Conservatives on 27% and the Liberal Democrats down to 7%.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/18/tory-party-europe-lord-howe

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-14th-may-2013
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    Indeed, he has 2 years to practise ready for the big Top final performance!
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    tim said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim - Yes, but most of those votes went to the LDs even pre-debate, not back to Labour. As I said the election will be decided on where Clegg voters in 2010 and UKIP voters in 2013 decide to place their cross in 2015!

    That's why I've been banging on about Cameron alienating centrist women and right wing male pensioners, it kills the chances of him keeping the Tories in power.
    He can't ride those two horses, Hes just too amateurish for the circus

    tim, since you don't want to see the Tories in power again if I were you I wouldn't fret about Cam's supposed wimmin problem. You can go to bed now.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Clegg and the lib dems on 7% in the Opinium poll. Oh dear.

    Poor old Cleggy. Not much chance of the lib dems getting their message across while Cammie does his John Major and the tory backbenchers are frantically running about like hyperactive toddlers. There seemed to be a point where tory incompetence was helping the lib dems but it doesn't look that way any more.

    Ironic that right now Clegg should be the loudest voice calling for a return to competent steady governance and an end to the incessant tory squabbling. Since the tories are hardly going to listen to him.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    Clegg and the lib dems on 7% in the Opinium poll. Oh dear.

    Poor old Cleggy. Not much chance of the lib dems getting their message across while Cammie does his John Major and the tory backbenchers are frantically running about like hyperactive toddlers. There seemed to be a point where tory incompetence was helping the lib dems but it doesn't look that way any more.

    Ironic that right now Clegg should be the loudest voice calling for a return to competent steady governance and an end to the incessant tory squabbling. Since the tories are hardly going to listen to him.

    When did the UK last have a competent government?

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Tim

    'When did the UK last have a competent government?

    1997-2007

    At least you have a sense of humour.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Seriously, people are still bleating on about Iraq?

    In hindsight I still think the invasion of Iraq was the correct thing, and will ultimately be seen as being in the best interests of the Iraqi people.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    "When did the UK last have a competent government?"

    '97 to '02 would be my answer. It all went wrong in the second term. Tony should have grown a pair and fired Gordon the day after the 01 election.
This discussion has been closed.