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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yet another pollster has LAB dropping to the mid-30s

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Wot, no Jedward???
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    edited May 2013
    Worst dressed Estonia (curtains missing somewhere)
    Most bizarre Romania. No contest
    Best singer Iceland.
    Winner Denmark.

    Oh and special prize for man in a box. Wonderfully distracting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963

    Kle4/Sunil thanks for the answer re The Ukraine.

    You're welcome!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ireland going for the beefcake vote.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597

    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    Don't worry Sunil, we will will Eurovision again one day, it's just a question of time.

    Hi Dodrade, well I did say "not too bad a song"!
    But the bookies think it's no good.
    Oh, it won't get anywhere near winning but could have been so much worse!
    Picking big names but giving them average songs, we need somehow to get the balance right.
    "Get the balance right" - was the Depeche Mode reference was intentional?

    :)

    Hopefully next year it won't be a closed selection but open to a nationwide televote.
    Didn't you get the first two?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different

    The Conservative factions are warring so zealously over Europe that a formal split in the party is not unthinkable

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/18/tories-europe
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    SPIN offer the UK finishing position at 17.5-18.5 (out of 26)

    I think we'll be ~22nd, so I've bought at that price.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    1) Norway
    2) Ireland
    3) Denmark

    Best looking: Azerbaijan
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different

    The Conservative factions are warring so zealously over Europe that a formal split in the party is not unthinkable

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/18/tories-europe

    A formal split is a nonsense scenario. They'll either have a leadership contest and replace Mr Cameron, or the Cameroons will cave on any and every issue.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Well I'm voting for Belarus, Romania and Ireland.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different

    The Conservative factions are warring so zealously over Europe that a formal split in the party is not unthinkable

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/18/tories-europe

    A formal split is a nonsense scenario. They'll either have a leadership contest and replace Mr Cameron, or the Cameroons will cave on any and every issue.

    Or both?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    Don't worry Sunil, we will will Eurovision again one day, it's just a question of time.

    Hi Dodrade, well I did say "not too bad a song"!
    But the bookies think it's no good.
    Oh, it won't get anywhere near winning but could have been so much worse!
    Picking big names but giving them average songs, we need somehow to get the balance right.
    "Get the balance right" - was the Depeche Mode reference was intentional?

    :)

    Hopefully next year it won't be a closed selection but open to a nationwide televote.
    Didn't you get the first two?
    LOL! No, I confess I completely missed those!!! Even worse when you consider I've built up a collection on iTunes of nearly 800 songs involving members of DM present and past.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013

    MikeK said:

    Another dirge from Italy. Will the agony never end?

    @Sunil_Prasannan
    The big advantage to Eurovision, Mike, is that we can still participate even if we leave the EU!

    The question is do we want to? Only You and TSE seem to enjoy this muck.

    You really are a grumpy old man, millions watch this.

    During my first stint as guest editor, my eurovision thread was the most viewed thread, it was more popular than an Ed is crap thread.
    I'm not grumpy and bully for you for your thread. My granddaughter is twittering like mad about Eurovision. I guess she's made some very big bets somewhere.

  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    My vote for the best looker is definitely the Ukranian girl, beautiful.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 1m

    RT @phil_reilly Now for the bit every Lib Dem looks forward to. The complicated voting system. #Eurovision #JokeOfEvening!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Balls ranking

    1) Greece
    2) Romania
    3) Russia
    4) Spain
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Banging on about Europe going well for the incompetent fops as usual then?

    Cammie hitting new lows while handing the kippers a poll boost on a plate with every swivel-eyed statement and split over the EU. Who could possibly have seen that coming? ;)

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Carola said:

    antifrank said:

    Have you checked the house for the usual obscure bottle of Spanish liqueur that mysteriously has hung around since 1994? It might be worth trying it.

    I still have a bottle of pisco (aptly named) that I brought back from Peru a few years ago. I pretty much lived on pisco sours when I was there. Somehow they didn't taste the same when I tried to recreate the magic.
    I have a bottle of grapefruit and coconut gin that the good lady bought me for my birthday. I have tried mixing it with at least five dilutes and none work. I have come to the conclusion that it is indeed utterly revolting.

    I will generously offer it to TFS in his hour of need.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    SeanT said:

    Go, Nigel, go.

    Where? Bangkok?

    *chortle*

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Charles said:



    So when Labour loses wwc support its likely to go direct to UKIP who will overtake the Conservatives in these areas.

    That was exactly my point. In the past people have criticised the Tories for not tactical voting (although arguably they had no option if they figured out the Libs were just diluted Labour which is what so many of them seem to be).

    Perhaps we could see wholesale Tory voting for UKIP in the Northern marginals - and a shock result for Labour. A regional split like that may not be the worst thing for the right.
    What the hell are you on about Charles ???

    There aren't any Lab-UKIP northern marginals but there are numerous Lab-Con and Con-Lab northern marginals.

    The Conservatives need to stop the hemorrhage of their voters to UKIP not encourage it.

    If UKIP start making gains from Labour it means that there is no chance of a Conservative majority.

    Isn't a Conservative majority what you want ?

    Let me try to explain once again - to achieve an overall majority the Conservatives will need to make gains from Labour in northern wwc towns.
  • jamesjwojamesjwo Posts: 5
    Anyone got any idea how low the LibDems have to drop to be in danger of getting wiped out at the next election?
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    edited May 2013
    Who would have thought it?

    All that scrutiny and bad publicity...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326728/Support-UKIP-reaches-record-19-party-steals-supporters-Labour-Tories.html

    "Privately, Labour insiders are warning of a ‘crisis of legitimacy’ if the party only secures a 34 per cent share of the vote at the next general election"

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    tim said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m
    Mail on Sunday front page saying that Dave used same swivel eyed loons phrase about CON activists

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/335864619543441409/photo/1

    As I pointed out on here today, the fop circle use the same language.

    I hope UKIP have sorted out their website problems. Another new member wave in sight.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different

    The Conservative factions are warring so zealously over Europe that a formal split in the party is not unthinkable

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/18/tories-europe

    Could we see a poll showing both of the Big Two in the 20s between now and 2015? Unlikely, but possible?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    samonipad said:

    My vote for the best looker is definitely the Ukranian girl, beautiful.

    Denmark. Or maybe Estonia.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    jamesjwo said:

    Anyone got any idea how low the LibDems have to drop to be in danger of getting wiped out at the next election?

    Hard to say for sure I'd think - depends on how badly they're wiped out in Lab seats and anywhere in Scotland vs how well they hold on in incumbent seats, mostly in Con/LD fights. I think they could have as many as 40 odd on 10% less than in 2010, or down to 20 or fewer on the same.

    Anything under 10% nationally and they'd be super worried I's guess, though I'm predicting mid-late teens % and 30-40 seats,

  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597

    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    dodrade said:

    Don't worry Sunil, we will will Eurovision again one day, it's just a question of time.

    Hi Dodrade, well I did say "not too bad a song"!
    But the bookies think it's no good.
    Oh, it won't get anywhere near winning but could have been so much worse!
    Picking big names but giving them average songs, we need somehow to get the balance right.
    "Get the balance right" - was the Depeche Mode reference was intentional?

    :)

    Hopefully next year it won't be a closed selection but open to a nationwide televote.
    Didn't you get the first two?
    LOL! No, I confess I completely missed those!!! Even worse when you consider I've built up a collection on iTunes of nearly 800 songs involving members of DM present and past.
    That's a lot of songs to place in your memory.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    edited May 2013
    Bobajob said:

    Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different

    The Conservative factions are warring so zealously over Europe that a formal split in the party is not unthinkable

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/18/tories-europe

    Could we see a poll showing both of the Big Two in the 20s between now and 2015? Unlikely, but possible?

    Does the Rallings and Thrasher National Eqiuvalent Vote share count?

    Because we've had both parties in the 20s.

    Edit: I suspect we'll see some very odd polling results either side of next years Euros.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    'Forget #swivelgate for a mo, the PM has sd something much more signif in coming issue of @TotalPolitics magazine. Watch out tmrw' waugh
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Carola said:

    'Forget #swivelgate for a mo, the PM has sd something much more signif in coming issue of @TotalPolitics magazine. Watch out tmrw' waugh

    Forget the story on the front page of the sundays?

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m
    Mail on Sunday front page saying that Dave used same swivel eyed loons phrase about CON activists

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/335864619543441409/photo/1

    As I pointed out on here today, the fop circle use the same language.

    Nor were you the only one.

    Poor old swivel-eyed loons, what a shame.

    How much more of a protest vote boost will Cammie's continuing impersonation of John Major give the kippers?

    No wonder the kippers didn't hire Crosby. They didn't need to. Cammie and the tory party pays the bill and then do all the hard work for Farage. Classic fop incompetence.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2013
    jamesjwo said:

    Anyone got any idea how low the LibDems have to drop to be in danger of getting wiped out at the next election?

    Depends what you mean by "wiped out." They kept half a dozen seats in the 1950s (albeit with a little help from the Tories)...

    Since 1974 their lowest tally was 11, in 1979.

    I'd guess their irreducible minimum now would be somewhere in the 20s, and that would be more or less independent of national vote share.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Isn't there the possibility that his casting of the membership as some sort of weird rightwing froth-breathers will do him some good with the general public?

  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    I've only watched the countdown clips here but wtf were the Romanian and Greek songs all about?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Ha, the Swedish presenter-lady is the interval act this year!
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Bobajob said:

    Tories just about held it together in the past. This time it's different

    The Conservative factions are warring so zealously over Europe that a formal split in the party is not unthinkable

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/18/tories-europe

    Could we see a poll showing both of the Big Two in the 20s between now and 2015? Unlikely, but possible?

    Does the Rallings and Thrasher National Eqiuvalent Vote share count?

    Nah. That stuff reminds me of the Andy Clarkeometer last time around – get some numbers and fiddle with them. I may be being unfair :)

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Isn't there the possibility that his casting of the membership as some sort of weird rightwing froth-breathers will do him some good with the general public?

    This is the elusive Guardian-readers-start-voting-Conservative moment? Unlikely.

  • jamesjwojamesjwo Posts: 5
    kle4 said:

    Thanks. Maybe their best hope is if Labour is panicked into some sort of EU referendum pledge. The unequivocally pro-EU camp may be a minority constituency, but at least then they'd be the only ones competing for it.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    samonipad said:

    Who would have thought it?

    All that scrutiny and bad publicity...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2326728/Support-UKIP-reaches-record-19-party-steals-supporters-Labour-Tories.html

    "Privately, Labour insiders are warning of a ‘crisis of legitimacy’ if the party only secures a 34 per cent share of the vote at the next general election"

    I'm sure they'll live with it if they nick back in with a majority, they'll still have more votes than any other party.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    tim said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m
    Mail on Sunday front page saying that Dave used same swivel eyed loons phrase about CON activists

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/335864619543441409/photo/1

    As I pointed out on here today, the fop circle use the same language.

    Shouldn't the Conservative leadership regard themselves as 'Conservative activists' ?

    The chumocracy regard their own supporters in the same manner as the most arrogant globetrotting footballer does the fans for the various teams he plays for.

    While that footballer goes from club to club each year thinking only of themselves and without any sense of commitment but full of false platitudes the chumocracy do likewise - from PR work to politics to directorships then back to politics and on to quangocracies.

    Likewise we have the 'battered wives' type of political cheerleader, no different to the 'battered wives' type of football fan.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    My vote for the best looker is definitely the Ukranian girl, beautiful.

    Or as Farage and Jim Bowen say

    "come and have a look at what you could have won"

    Embrace the enlargement to the East, Sam.
    :)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Pong

    And I just granted the Ukraine accession status after enlargement.

    We can't let Ukraine into the EU until someone tells me if it "The Ukraine" or just plain "Ukraine"
    It's Ukraine

    "The Ukraine" is a Stalinist slur that I repeated unwittingly

    The term is a lot older than Stalin, I can assure you.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited May 2013
    Shouldn't the Conservative leadership regard themselves as 'Conservative activists' ?

    They should, although I very much doubt it is purely a Conservative issue. I find it very easy to imagine LD Ministers getting bloody irritated at whiny LD groups across the country disavowing them, or Labour governments getting embarrased by the actions of some Labour heartland council which don't play as well to the centre vote nationally.

    It's like the Brown/Duffy incident, where all leaders have likely insulted the public in a cathartic whinge after some schmoozing, but it only really becomes an issue when we the public actually hear someone do it.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    There is also the fact that none of the witnesses agree with Mr Feldman's version of events.

    "Sources said the peer came out of a private room in the hotel and spoke to journalists who were on a table in a public area with a “fifth man”, understood to be a senior civil servant.

    The “fifth man” was said to have said he could not recollect the exact words used. The Daily Telegraph said it stood by its report. It and the other newspapers have not named the member of Mr Cameron’s circle behind the slur."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10066453/Swivel-eyed-loons-hit-back-at-Prime-Minister.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    That Eurovision montage mentioned all the bands I mentioned in my thread.

    *Does Happy Dance*
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    The problem with eurovision is that when it used to be a delicious secret of superior sarcasm and repressed gay ogling, flavoured by barely hidden inter-European hatreds, now all this stuff is out in the open and everyone tries to be ludicrous and camp and is openly silly and tribal, and it is therefore just a bit long and dull.

    We should go back to proper European wars.

    Shall we see you on the front lines? Or perhaps you'll be our John Milton, defending our actions in beautiful and stirring prose to the wider world?
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Isn't there the possibility that his casting of the membership as some sort of weird rightwing froth-breathers will do him some good with the general public?

    And me. Point proven.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658

    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Isn't there the possibility that his casting of the membership as some sort of weird rightwing froth-breathers will do him some good with the general public?

    This is the elusive Guardian-readers-start-voting-Conservative moment? Unlikely.

    I predicted some of Cameron's inner circle would start pushing that line.

    (Not that Bobajob is one of them of course).

    But that theory fails because the rightwing froth-breathers are supported by that section of the general public who might vote Conservative while that section of the general public who oppose them have no intention of ever voting Conservative.



  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    1 point from Sweden!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    God bless the Swedes, they gave us one point.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,558
    If Greece win, could they afford to stage it next year?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    No Null points tonight!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Dear me, the good denizens of PB (and, to be fair, many MPs) have short memories.

    I recommend some revision. There are many classic case studies of short-lived political bubbles based on nothing other than froth; here are some recent ones:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/16/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20096796-503544.html

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/gordon-browns-lead-in-the-polls-has-tories-rattled-6661491.html

    [The last one is particularly apposite]
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    If Greece win, could they afford to stage it next year?

    If they win it, it will be held in Germany.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited May 2013
    Just watched Star Trek Into Darkness.

    TSE: It wasn't as good as Star Trek (2009).
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SeanT said:

    35 in mid term is desperately poor, as it is.

    True enough, but not so bad under an electoral system where you can still win by coming second...

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    The Danes aren't running away with this.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    SeanT said:

    At what point do Labour start to panic, as well as the Tories?

    I can see lots of complacency and glibness downthread, from lefties - Oh, FPTP will ensure we win, 78 seats, look at the Tories, blah de blah.

    But when do they REALLY get the jitters? 35 in mid term is desperately poor, as it is.

    It's a good question. There has been a notable reduction in Labour's score, but as it's not been going to the Tories I think it's not caused the worry that it might have done. Labourites really only consider the Conservatives worthy of their rivalry, whether that is wise in this more plural modern age, I don't know. I have been asking myself the same question.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    We give Denmark 12 points!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    Dear me, the good denizens of PB (and, to be fair, many MPs) have short memories.

    I recommend some revision. There are many classic case studies of short-lived political bubbles based on nothing other than froth; here are some recent ones:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/16/nick-clegg-guardian-icm-poll-pm

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20096796-503544.html

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/gordon-browns-lead-in-the-polls-has-tories-rattled-6661491.html

    [The last one is particularly apposite]

    It could well turn out that way, but surely you would agree the actions we've been seeing seem designed to make the bubble last as long as possible by giving it things to feed upon, almost daring it to become real.

    For me the critical thing will still be winning a parliamentary by-election - come 2015, if we get that far, if strong minded UKIPers don't think they have genuine chances in places, they will return home to the Tories with tails between their legs if needs be.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited May 2013
    Now that UKIP has over double the LD vote based on this poll, is closer to the Tories than the LDs and Labour is only polling 1% more than it got in 1992 is it safe to say we are now seeing a realignment in UK politics?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Lib dems still on a derisory 8% doesn't exactly chime with Clegg boasting about being "back in the saddle" either.

    Yet how many are going to bet against the lib dems not winning any seats at all in 2015?
    As toxic as Clegg is and however much they hate FPTP the lib dems still know how to use it to get actual MPs voted in and even win by-elections while chaos engulfed Huhne and Clegg.

    Expect to see Clegg and the lib dems make a very big deal of the gay marriage vote next week and twist the knife into Cammie and the inevitable tory splits.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    3 points from Romania!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013
    kle4 said:

    It could well turn out that way, but surely you would agree the actions we've been seeing seem designed to make the bubble last as long as possible by giving it things to feed upon, almost daring it to become real.

    As tim rightly pointed out a few days ago, the issue isn't UKIP's polling bubble, it's the reaction to UKIP's polling bubble amongst Conservatives who really ought to know better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774

    3 points from Romania!

    Huw Silk ‏@huwsilk

    Romania! See UKIP! They're not bad! #threepoints
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    Lib dems still on a derisory 8% doesn't exactly chime with Clegg boasting about being "back in the saddle" either.

    Yet how many are going to bet against the lib dems not winning any seats at all in 2015?
    As toxic as Clegg is and however much they hate FPTP the lib dems still know how to use it to get actual MPs voted in and even win by-elections while chaos engulfed Huhne and Clegg.

    Expect to see Clegg and the lib dems make a very big deal of the gay marriage vote next week and twist the knife into Cammie and the inevitable tory splits.

    I'd like to see a re-run of Eastleigh now.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536

    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Isn't there the possibility that his casting of the membership as some sort of weird rightwing froth-breathers will do him some good with the general public?

    This is the elusive Guardian-readers-start-voting-Conservative moment? Unlikely.

    I predicted some of Cameron's inner circle would start pushing that line.

    (Not that Bobajob is one of them of course).

    But that theory fails because the rightwing froth-breathers are supported by that section of the general public who might vote Conservative while that section of the general public who oppose them have no intention of ever voting Conservative.



    What about the soft-right voters Cam needs to win an election? They so often get forgotten about, particularly on here.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The usual carve up in the voting. Pitiful really, but that is Europe for you. I must say the GB contribution was particularly grotty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    Freggles said:

    Just watched Star Trek Into Darkness.

    TSE: It wasn't as good as Star Trek (2009).

    Eh, I preferred it, much as I did enjoy 2009. Will never have the depth of character of previous movies due to lack of a series canon to fall back on, but Into Darkness did have a few more moments to have the characters express their connections.

    I also really do like the fact that Starfleet always seemed more disciplined and accepting of it's militaristic identity in the new movies, the look and feel of it more real - as a long time Trek watcher, it was always bizarre when some characters would get almost angry at being compared to a military organization, just because they, you know, use military ranks and fulfilled all the functions of a military - while still being wary of losing sight of their exploration and scientific purpose (as Scotty lamented).

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    Now that UKIP has over double the LD vote based on this poll, is closer to the Tories than the LDs and Labour is only polling 1% more than it got in 1992 is it safe to say we are now seeing a realignment in UK politics?

    This is not the time for safe rhetoric. We are seeing a revolution!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    HYUFD said:

    Now that UKIP has over double the LD vote based on this poll, is closer to the Tories than the LDs and Labour is only polling 1% more than it got in 1992 is it safe to say we are now seeing a realignment in UK politics?

    Not until it is confirmed in a GE vote (sadly, Locals would just be the start), or else the LDs getting to 33% would have signalled a realignment.

    The UKIP has been sustained for longer and with greater momentum than I expected though, and continues to be fed by a terrified Tory party, so they will definitely be getting their hopes up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    Just watched Star Trek Into Darkness.

    TSE: It wasn't as good as Star Trek (2009).

    Eh, I preferred it, much as I did enjoy 2009. Will never have the depth of character of previous movies due to lack of a series canon to fall back on, but Into Darkness did have a few more moments to have the characters express their connections.

    I also really do like the fact that Starfleet always seemed more disciplined and accepting of it's militaristic identity in the new movies, the look and feel of it more real - as a long time Trek watcher, it was always bizarre when some characters would get almost angry at being compared to a military organization, just because they, you know, use military ranks and fulfilled all the functions of a military - while still being wary of losing sight of their exploration and scientific purpose (as Scotty lamented).

    I agree

  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    How cool is the Norweigan point revealer??
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    So when Labour loses wwc support its likely to go direct to UKIP who will overtake the Conservatives in these areas.

    That was exactly my point. In the past people have criticised the Tories for not tactical voting (although arguably they had no option if they figured out the Libs were just diluted Labour which is what so many of them seem to be).

    Perhaps we could see wholesale Tory voting for UKIP in the Northern marginals - and a shock result for Labour. A regional split like that may not be the worst thing for the right.
    What the hell are you on about Charles ???

    There aren't any Lab-UKIP northern marginals but there are numerous Lab-Con and Con-Lab northern marginals.

    The Conservatives need to stop the hemorrhage of their voters to UKIP not encourage it.

    If UKIP start making gains from Labour it means that there is no chance of a Conservative majority.

    Isn't a Conservative majority what you want ?

    Let me try to explain once again - to achieve an overall majority the Conservatives will need to make gains from Labour in northern wwc towns.
    I'm not talking about strategy - I'm musing on where there could be surprising outcomes.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour do a lot worse than expected - and the biggest scope for an upset is if UKIP starts winning Lab-Con marginals in the North.

    Logic is this:

    (1) For tribal reasons many right-ish WWC in the North won't vote Tory but will vote UKIP
    (2) Lab vote depressed to NOTA because EdM is uninspiring
    (3) UKIP wins many former Labour now NOTA
    (4) Con supporters vote for UKIP either from conviction or for tactical reasons
    (5) result is UKIP wins seats from Labour.

    Not ideal for the Tories, not a bad outcome for the right. Potential for a CDU-CSU relationship (although more balanced) with UKIP in north and the Tories in south?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    We give Denmark 12 points!

    We like their crime dramas a lot, so I'm not surprised - plus Scandanavians are more 'like us' than some of the rest of those nasty Europeans. Song doesn't hurt either.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    MikeK said:

    The usual carve up in the voting. Pitiful really, but that is Europe for you. I must say the GB contribution was particularly grotty.

    Lets face it, the voting in Eurovision is an hour long party political broadcast for Farage. We are clearly the international equivalent of Millwall : no one loves us, we don't care.
  • samonipadsamonipad Posts: 182
    Just had £25@14s Ukraine for the good sort factor
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    samonipad said:

    My vote for the best looker is definitely the Ukranian girl, beautiful.

    Or as Farage and Jim Bowen say

    "come and have a look at what you could have won"

    Embrace the enlargement to the East, Sam.
    Mu wife is American but third generation Ukrainian by descent.

    I'm not complaining :-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    Denmark in the clear lead
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    Blimey the Spanish results lady
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,963
    4 points from the Spanish!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    welshowl said:

    MikeK said:

    The usual carve up in the voting. Pitiful really, but that is Europe for you. I must say the GB contribution was particularly grotty.

    Lets face it, the voting in Eurovision is an hour long party political broadcast for Farage. We are clearly the international equivalent of Millwall : no one loves us, we don't care.
    We came fifth only a few years ago, and the fact we focus on our perceived unpopularity (or rather overstate the extent of it) strikes me as proof that we do care - we just try to put a brave face on it, by claiming if they don't like us, then good riddance, and we must surely be the most disliked, the best of the anti-europe if you will.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    So when Labour loses wwc support its likely to go direct to UKIP who will overtake the Conservatives in these areas.

    That was exactly my point. In the past people have criticised the Tories for not tactical voting (although arguably they had no option if they figured out the Libs were just diluted Labour which is what so many of them seem to be).

    Perhaps we could see wholesale Tory voting for UKIP in the Northern marginals - and a shock result for Labour. A regional split like that may not be the worst thing for the right.
    What the hell are you on about Charles ???

    There aren't any Lab-UKIP northern marginals but there are numerous Lab-Con and Con-Lab northern marginals.

    The Conservatives need to stop the hemorrhage of their voters to UKIP not encourage it.

    If UKIP start making gains from Labour it means that there is no chance of a Conservative majority.

    Isn't a Conservative majority what you want ?

    Let me try to explain once again - to achieve an overall majority the Conservatives will need to make gains from Labour in northern wwc towns.
    I'm not talking about strategy - I'm musing on where there could be surprising outcomes.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Labour do a lot worse than expected - and the biggest scope for an upset is if UKIP starts winning Lab-Con marginals in the North.

    Logic is this:

    (1) For tribal reasons many right-ish WWC in the North won't vote Tory but will vote UKIP
    (2) Lab vote depressed to NOTA because EdM is uninspiring
    (3) UKIP wins many former Labour now NOTA
    (4) Con supporters vote for UKIP either from conviction or for tactical reasons
    (5) result is UKIP wins seats from Labour.

    Not ideal for the Tories, not a bad outcome for the right. Potential for a CDU-CSU relationship (although more balanced) with UKIP in north and the Tories in south?
    Highly unlikely - as a range of high-street bookmakers will attest.

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    Lib dems still on a derisory 8% doesn't exactly chime with Clegg boasting about being "back in the saddle" either.

    Yet how many are going to bet against the lib dems not winning any seats at all in 2015?
    As toxic as Clegg is and however much they hate FPTP the lib dems still know how to use it to get actual MPs voted in and even win by-elections while chaos engulfed Huhne and Clegg.

    Expect to see Clegg and the lib dems make a very big deal of the gay marriage vote next week and twist the knife into Cammie and the inevitable tory splits.

    I'd like to see a re-run of Eastleigh now.

    I'm sure you would. I'm also equally sure Huhne would like to turn the clock way, WAY back too and do things differently. But that's showbiz. You had your chance and there's little point dreaming of what could have been now that Cammie helpfully has his backbenchers running about like headless chickens over Europe. As much as they love the subject and helping the kippers, even swivel-eyed loons can't bang on about it forever.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    And he has already flat out denied it.

    What's the betting that three drunk hacks made the whole thing up? It's significant that the 4th person (I think a senior civil servant) has just said he 'can't remember the exact form of words used'.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Denmark in the clear lead

    Which is handy, as if they win they could just break the stage down and trundle it across the Oresund bridge to Copenhagen ( sort of Hampstead to Brent Cross on the Northern line sort of a distance) and save a few quid ( or Kronor ) in these austere times.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,774
    BBC Eurovision ‏@bbceurovision 3m

    John Terry spotted changing into Denmark kit. #eurovision
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    SeanT said:


    One more year, on this trend, and they will overtake the Tories. Two more years and they will be in front, ahead of Labour..

    Indeed. And if the Standard Life share price continue to rise as fast as it has over the last few days it will be the most valuable company on the London Stock Exchange in a few months' time. And as that Guardian link I quoted put it, on 16th April 2010 Nick Clegg looked as though he might be the next PM.

    However, political punters need to ground themselves in reality.
  • I wonder what the seat distribution will be like in the next parliament if the voting figures are something like the below (which I think are fairly plausible assuming the election is in May 2015)

    Conservative 33
    Labour 32
    Libdem 13
    UKIP 12
    Others 10

    In this scenario, is it not fairly possible that Labour would still have a majority? I could see the DT leading the campaign for AMS.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    And he has already flat out denied it.

    What's the betting that three drunk hacks made the whole thing up? It's significant that the 4th person (I think a senior civil servant) has just said he 'can't remember the exact form of words used'.
    Yes. He's not backing up Mr Feldman's version of events. That's significant.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Half way through a European competition: isn't it about now the Americans arrive give us 200 points and make us win????
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    One for Andrea. Paul Miller (labour group leader) selected as labour candidate 2015 GE Pembs Preseli.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    tim said:

    Tony Gallagher ‏@gallaghereditor 6m
    No10 attempts to undermine 'swivel eye loon' story are going well. It is the splash in at least 3 Sunday papers

    Amateurs.

    Nothing they could have said would have prevented it. It might not have fed it as much, but it was happening regardless, so I don't think that much is due to amateurism.
    Get Feldman on TV at Breakfast to issue a full denial, or tell him to resign.
    Not difficult.
    I disagree. Mitchell denied saying things, didn't help kill the story. The sheer slavering joy at this story from many is proof enough to me that it would have been pushed regardless of any response, it's just the exact form that it would take that changes.

    "Dispute over Tory acticist slur" for instance, in the case of a direct denial vs the reporting that had already happened.

    You're not naiive, and the Tory haters would never ever ever ever ever have let the opportunity go, and so bits of the media were bound to run with it.

    There is also the fact that none of the witnesses agree with Mr Feldman's version of events.

    "Sources said the peer came out of a private room in the hotel and spoke to journalists who were on a table in a public area with a “fifth man”, understood to be a senior civil servant.

    The “fifth man” was said to have said he could not recollect the exact words used. The Daily Telegraph said it stood by its report. It and the other newspapers have not named the member of Mr Cameron’s circle behind the slur."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10066453/Swivel-eyed-loons-hit-back-at-Prime-Minister.html
    Yes: you have 3 hacks short of a story and who are probably good mates. A shadowy 'senior conservative' who it is easy to blame. A civil servant who refused to back either side.

    Feldman is a smart guy. I'd be surprised (unless he was drunk) to say something that daft to journalists.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255

    I wonder what the seat distribution will be like in the next parliament if the voting figures are something like the below (which I think are fairly plausible assuming the election is in May 2015)

    Conservative 33
    Labour 32
    Libdem 13
    UKIP 12
    Others 10

    In this scenario, is it not fairly possible that Labour would still have a majority? I could see the DT leading the campaign for AMS.

    AMS?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,638
    tim said:

    kle4 said:

    It could well turn out that way, but surely you would agree the actions we've been seeing seem designed to make the bubble last as long as possible by giving it things to feed upon, almost daring it to become real.

    As tim rightly pointed out a few days ago, the issue isn't UKIP's polling bubble, it's the reaction to UKIP's polling bubble amongst Conservatives who really ought to know better.
    And the Tory Bennites are feeding Militant.
    While Cameron thinks he can give them both titbits and they'll go away.
    The difference being that Militant did not have a viable separate party that could suck away votes from Labour and that they were not polling at 20%. Apart from all of that your analogy is spot on.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    MikeK said:

    The usual carve up in the voting. Pitiful really, but that is Europe for you. I must say the GB contribution was particularly grotty.

    Lets face it, the voting in Eurovision is an hour long party political broadcast for Farage. We are clearly the international equivalent of Millwall : no one loves us, we don't care.
    We came fifth only a few years ago, and the fact we focus on our perceived unpopularity (or rather overstate the extent of it) strikes me as proof that we do care - we just try to put a brave face on it, by claiming if they don't like us, then good riddance, and we must surely be the most disliked, the best of the anti-europe if you will.
    It's Saturday night at 11.00. I wasn't serious.......
  • kle4 said:

    I wonder what the seat distribution will be like in the next parliament if the voting figures are something like the below (which I think are fairly plausible assuming the election is in May 2015)

    Conservative 33
    Labour 32
    Libdem 13
    UKIP 12
    Others 10

    In this scenario, is it not fairly possible that Labour would still have a majority? I could see the DT leading the campaign for AMS.

    AMS?
    Additional Member System - used in the Scottish Parliament (and I believe the Welsh Assembly) which is a kind of mix between FPTP and the d'Hondt list system.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,255
    Speaking of crazy european hi-jinks, I see this news in Italy

    Public trust in [Italian PM Enricco Letta's] fragile coalition with the centre-right is dropping, opinion polls suggest.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22581759

    They've only been in power a week or two haven't they?! I know your political class is worse than ours, Italians, but at least given them some time!
This discussion has been closed.