Would you expect such a government to last longer than 18 months?
Very hard to predict - to topple it would require an alliance of other parties, and the problem is that they would each be trying to choose a time which maximised their own support. There's no guarantee that at any particular time they'd agree it was the moment to pull the plug. So the minority government might continue for quite a while, lurching from crisis to crisis and having to buy off rebels along the way, but not quite being killed off.
Something for the memory locker, a pic of UKIP's sole Scottish elected representative in a kilt. He appears to have gone for the maxi look, the opposite to Jack McConnell's mini kilt. No danger of a glimpse of knees, or worse, thank God.
That's a scene from Carry on up the Khyber surely?
UKIP apparently stood and turned their backs as the European anthem was played in the EU parliament. Perhaps Mr Coburn raised his kilt as a salute?
They really are just rude, aren't they.
It may not mean anything to them, but you should always be respectful of other people's beliefs
Having seen a photo, some of them seem to be taking selfies during the grand gesture. Rather detracts from any sense of principled protest in my view. Mr Coburn keeps his kilt at a douce level though.
The French are paying for their sins of the last 20 years, not just the last three. The country's politicians have utterly failed to lead the country's voters towards any kind of realistic appraisal of the inter-connected world in which we and they live. Even now, they vote for the FN, which aside from its nasty foreigner-bashing promises that all the old benefits and perks can be protected and the globalising economy kept out. I don't go to France for work that much, but when I do the frustration felt by people running forward thinking, successful businesses is intense. There seem to be a fair few of them, but the trouble is that their France is the smaller of the two that exist. What the other, bigger France needs more than anything else is a change of attitude. What are the chances of that?
I agree with all of that.
Sadly, I think the answer to your last question is: Very low, for now at least. I don't see any sign of a change of attitude, if anything the reverse. It reminds me of the fatalism of pre-Maggie Britain: you'll find plenty of people in France who understand what is wrong, but little appetite to do anything about it, or faith that anything can be done about it.
Part of the reason for this is that, for many, it's all very comfortable and cosy, thank you very much. A combination of the unreformed labour market and state largesse mean that the French vested interests are particularly vested. That means the burden is falling disproportionately on those who don't have an established job in a big company or in the state sector, or a state pension. In practice that means particularly the burden falls on the young.
One issue is that too many of the people who might change things have emigrated to places like London.
Another issue is France's 2 stage electoral system, which largely keeps out the FN but also makes it harder for any radical parties with new ideas to make a break through.
Mr. M, not au fait with Brighton but surprised UKIP are outpolling the Lib Dems there.
In that part of Brighton a lot of the people who would vote Lib Dem in say, Lewes, will vote Green. So, Mr. Dancer, probably not really that much of a surprise, just iron Age Apprecaition Society authoritarian types using their vote the maximum affect.
Brighton Pavillion is quite a diverse constituency, lots of bedsit type dwellings in the southern end (students), mixed in with trendy, and very expensive for what they are, gentrified Victorian terraces and in the North lots of large and expensive houses (not uncommonly occupied by senior staff from the universities). So lots of middle class lefties.
The French are paying for their sins of the last 20 years, not just the last three. The country's politicians have utterly failed to lead the country's voters towards any kind of realistic appraisal of the inter-connected world in which we and they live. Even now, they vote for the FN, which aside from its nasty foreigner-bashing promises that all the old benefits and perks can be protected and the globalising economy kept out. I don't go to France for work that much, but when I do the frustration felt by people running forward thinking, successful businesses is intense. There seem to be a fair few of them, but the trouble is that their France is the smaller of the two that exist. What the other, bigger France needs more than anything else is a change of attitude. What are the chances of that?
I agree with all of that.
Sadly, I think the answer to your last question is: Very low, for now at least. I don't see any sign of a change of attitude, if anything the reverse. It reminds me of the fatalism of pre-Maggie Britain: you'll find plenty of people in France who understand what is wrong, but little appetite to do anything about it, or faith that anything can be done about it.
Part of the reason for this is that, for many, it's all very comfortable and cosy, thank you very much. A combination of the unreformed labour market and state largesse mean that the French vested interests are particularly vested. That means the burden is falling disproportionately on those who don't have an established job in a big company or in the state sector, or a state pension. In practice that means particularly the burden falls on the young.
One issue is that too many of the people who might change things have emigrated to places like London.
Another issue is France's 2 stage electoral system, which largely keeps out the FN but also makes it harder for any radical parties with new ideas to make a break through.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Get em while they are young. Indoctrinate and survive. The MO of most religions.
I had to attend service in the cathedral every day, six days a week at school. The only day I was spared the BS was Sunday. It taught me to loathe religion, for which I am grateful.
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb Cheese and ham, cheese and ham, cheese and ham
A 50% fall in his vote would make North Norfolk an easy Con gain. 5% swing back would see him hobble over the line. Like someone said earlier. Has Lamb got more stick ability than the rest? DYOR
My gut feeling is yes.
Care services is a good fit for Mr Lamb.
He also benefits from being the Lib Dem government voice in the East of England, with Huppert without portfolio and Bob Russell a backbencher happier to focus locally.
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb Cheese and ham, cheese and ham, cheese and ham
A 50% fall in his vote would make North Norfolk an easy Con gain. 5% swing back would see him hobble over the line. Like someone said earlier. Has Lamb got more stick ability than the rest? DYOR
The 50% fall in the Lib Dem vote is in Lib Dem - Labour marginals. In Ashcroft's polling of the Lib Dem - Conservative marginals the Lib Dem vote declined by around one-third, rather than one half, and the Conservative vote also declined by about one-fifth.
Unless there are compelling local factors it would make Norfolk North a relatively comfortable Lib Dem hold, by at least 5,000 votes.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Or indeed, members of other religions.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
One issue is that too many of the people who might change things have emigrated to places like London.
Another issue is France's 2 stage electoral system, which largely keeps out the FN but also makes it harder for any radical parties with new ideas to make a break through.
Yes, and it's not helped by the antics of the centre-right in France, with their knack for back-stabbing, flouncing, amd getting caught up in unfortunate encounters with the judicial system. (Of course the socialists have impressive form on all three of those as well.)
Perhaps Mme Lagarde will come back and save the country, although even she has some 'legacy issues'.
It does look like l'exception Française has finally run into the brick wall of economical reality. The food has really gone down hill too, even my French neighbours say that they eat better in pubs and restaurants over here than in their native land.
Interesting anecdotal. My impression of the supposed superiority of food in England was that yes you could get a better meal here than in France as long as you were paying £100 for lunch for two. if you wanted a better meal for £15, you still needed to be in France.
I was disappointed to find out the other day that the Domaine La Blaque Rhones I used to enjoy 10 or 12 years ago, and that I thought merely hard to find, are in fact impossible to find, because they're no longer distributed here. Another reason you need to be in France.
We've shortened up a couple of prices from the Ashcroft poll, but I agree that this hasn't told us anything much new and it would have been much more interesting if he'd picked a few seats where the result was in some doubt.
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb Cheese and ham, cheese and ham, cheese and ham
A 50% fall in his vote would make North Norfolk an easy Con gain. 5% swing back would see him hobble over the line. Like someone said earlier. Has Lamb got more stick ability than the rest? DYOR
My gut feeling is yes.
Care services is a good fit for Mr Lamb.
He also benefits from being the Lib Dem government voice in the East of England, with Huppert without portfolio and Bob Russell a backbencher happier to focus locally.
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb Cheese and ham, cheese and ham, cheese and ham
A 50% fall in his vote would make North Norfolk an easy Con gain. 5% swing back would see him hobble over the line. Like someone said earlier. Has Lamb got more stick ability than the rest? DYOR
The 50% fall in the Lib Dem vote is in Lib Dem - Labour marginals. In Ashcroft's polling of the Lib Dem - Conservative marginals the Lib Dem vote declined by around one-third, rather than one half, and the Conservative vote also declined by about one-fifth.
Unless there are compelling local factors it would make Norfolk North a relatively comfortable Lib Dem hold, by at least 5,000 votes.
Booooo, evidence against the Lamb Chop. I think it will be tighter than 5k, but UKIP might save his bacon this time for sure. Still, I'm having a little dabble on it.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Or indeed, members of other religions.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
I went to a catholic sixth form, and as one of only two non Catholics, decided that I would protest by taking communion. It was a strange protest, and apparently (according to my head of sixth form) was 'taking the piss, even for you' Body of Christ tastes foul. Well, it would if it had any flavour.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
To be honest I'd far rather the situation we have here whereby we have nominal fusion of state and religion and very few religious nut jobs rather than the US where they have constitutional separation of church and state yet tons of vocal whack jobs.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
I was interested to see that it is compulsory to attend in E & W - but this is subject however to the parental right of excusal or other special arrangements. It seems that in practice fewer than a third attend according to the BBC, though how much of that is by arrangement and how much by bunking off, tacitly condoned or otherwise, I have not inquired.
I see that schools themselves can apply for exemption to give an alternative worship (i.e. not Christian).
I imagine the 'religious observances' in Scotland are also compulsory but again there are opts out. I am not sure from the Humanist Society stuff whether those are specifically Christian but then Scotland is a secular state. And this is an interesting development -
There remains the wider issue of whether the UK is truly not a secular state just because its largest constituent nation and principality (or two nations - I am not sure if the Church in Wales is formally separate from the C of E) is one of the last postmediaeval theocracies, at least in form. Interesting.
One issue is that too many of the people who might change things have emigrated to places like London.
Another issue is France's 2 stage electoral system, which largely keeps out the FN but also makes it harder for any radical parties with new ideas to make a break through.
Yes, and it's not helped by the antics of the centre-right in France, with their knack for back-stabbing, flouncing, amd getting caught up in unfortunate encounters with the judicial system. (Of course the socialists have impressive form on all three of those as well.)
Perhaps Mme Lagarde will come back and save the country, although even she has some 'legacy issues'.
France surely has exactly the same problem as Scotland. There are so many lazy envious leftists that anyone intelligent, well-educated, ambitious and enterprising feels unwelcome, so they leave and cross the border to work in England, where they are appreciated.
In consequence, the worse leftism fails the country, the more nailed on it is, because most of those who naturally oppose it have left.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Or indeed, members of other religions.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
I didn't tell them I was an atheist, volunteered to lead a service and preached a sermon from the pulpit on the non-existence of God. Then I stopped going, which probably came as a relief to the teachers who pretended not to notice.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Or indeed, members of other religions.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
I went to a catholic sixth form, and as one of only two non Catholics, decided that I would protest by taking communion. It was a strange protest, and apparently (according to my head of sixth form) was 'taking the piss, even for you' Body of Christ tastes foul. Well, it would if it had any flavour.
I remember having an interesting discussion with a Catholic priest on transubstantiation and that in essence it turns all Catholics into cannibals.
The new schedule will see Adrian Chiles and Peter Allen host a new mid-morning programme, 5 live Daily, and a new afternoon show on every day but Friday.
Mr. Woolie, maybe he does. He would, if Irenaeus got his theodicy right (whereby God's omnibenevolence means he sends everyone to Heaven).
Or indeed if this is in fact Heaven, and we are released from his puppetry. Our actual reward is being able to die, and be free of his infernal goodytwoshoesness. Maybe that's it, we are already beyond God, safe from his judgement. We have exees.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Or indeed, members of other religions.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
I went to a catholic sixth form, and as one of only two non Catholics, decided that I would protest by taking communion. It was a strange protest, and apparently (according to my head of sixth form) was 'taking the piss, even for you' Body of Christ tastes foul. Well, it would if it had any flavour.
I remember having an interesting discussion with a Catholic priest on transubstantiation and that in essence it turns all Catholics into cannibals.
I'll have the body of Christ starter please. It is a most curious superstition. Why the heckfire would anyone want to eat their Messiah?
With so many constituency polls now, we are close to have an accurate picture of seats and their distribution in England.
LAB is marking its highest increases in LD-LAB seats, its lowest in other marginals and in most of the south.
CON are having an almost uniform fall.
UKIP is showing little increases in the cities but doing average on marginals which promises above average increases in their heartlands.
LD are hitting the zero bound in plenty of seats so their vote is falling more than average in seats where LD are not defending against the Tories and where they are defending their seats from the Tories there are doing as badly as the national figures suggest.
The new schedule will see Adrian Chiles and Peter Allen host a new mid-morning programme, 5 live Daily, and a new afternoon show on every day but Friday.
It's better than him being on telly at least you don't have the conjunction of inane banality and a face that deserves intimate acquaintance with a pick axe helve.
Mainly because religion tends to be a power grab, and a little magic makes it seem complicated, and a paygrade or three above the general flock. Management 1.01 really?
Mainly because religion tends to be a power grab, and a little magic makes it seem complicated, and a paygrade or three above the general flock. Management 1.01 really?
Well certainly the marketing department of Christianity played a blinder with the grave robber/rose from the dead meeting. I hope whoever came up with that got a seat on the board.
LD are hitting the zero bound in plenty of seats so their vote is falling more than average in seats where LD are not defending against the Tories and where they are defending their seats from the Tories there are doing as badly as the national figures suggest.
It does look like l'exception Française has finally run into the brick wall of economical reality. The food has really gone down hill too, even my French neighbours say that they eat better in pubs and restaurants over here than in their native land.
Interesting anecdotal. My impression of the supposed superiority of food in England was that yes you could get a better meal here than in France as long as you were paying £100 for lunch for two. if you wanted a better meal for £15, you still needed to be in France.
I was disappointed to find out the other day that the Domaine La Blaque Rhones I used to enjoy 10 or 12 years ago, and that I thought merely hard to find, are in fact impossible to find, because they're no longer distributed here. Another reason you need to be in France.
I suppose it might depend where you go my trips to France are to the old battlefields and especially Normandy, so quite touristy though we try to stay away from the obvious traps. My neighbours tend to spend their time in the Champagne region and in Paris where they have family. We both have similar experiences, the old family run cafes and restaurants where one could get a good meal for £15 a head have, in the main, either closed or reverted to serving up the French equivalent of Brake Brothers microwave and serve rubbish. There are still a few places which serve good food well at a reasonable price but they are becoming very hard to find (I know a few but I am not going to be damn fool enough to advertise them).
My neighbour tells me that the French are introducing a law which will oblige restaurateurs to state on the menu if a dish has been wholly prepared and cooked in the kitchen as opposed to being brought in and just heated. Even the Frogs, it would seem, are fed up with the crap food they are now commonly being served.
The earliest gospel makes no mention of that bit of the story, bits were bolted on later to suit the corporation message. If you strip out the fancy trimmings, most religions make sense, and are quite often in agreement..
Thinking on your comments above and your post about the hysterical predictions of the effect of a Labour government being elected next year, I reminded that Ed "I am a socialist" Miliband warmly welcomed Hollande's election and Hollande's policies that would lead to pain free growth and prosperity for all French people.
Quite so. Voters have a choice of direction; in France they decided to vote for someone who has actively made things worse (not that the last lot were great, to be fair). In 2015, voters here will have an opportunity to throw out the government that has made things better in the UK and bring back a party which seems determined to reverse the progress. We shall see which they choose.
Do you not think that there are enough people who depend on the state for all or part of their income who will vote Labour regardless? I don't mean pensioners either, I mean working families who are in receipt of working tax credits, child tax credits and housing benefits. Can you hazard a guess as to why the Tories didn't address these major imbalances in the economy early on by axing tax credits and benefits to working people in return for a higher tax free allowance and even a 2p cut on the basic rate.
The report recently which showed more than half of people get more out of the state than put in means people will be in favour of bigger and bigger government because they do see a direct benefit of more government in their bank balance. It used to be that the middle classes and aspirational working classes would want lower taxes to keep more of their own money, but with the system so distorted by benefits for those in work, people are seeing some necessity for higher taxes now.
As a Tory, you must see how self-defeating keeping benefits for working people has been for your party, why has nothing been done by the Chancellor to take an axe to tax credits for working people, it dooms your party in the long term as the trend will always be for more government rather than less.
The earliest gospel makes no mention of that bit of the story, bits were bolted on later to suit the corporation message. If you strip out the fancy trimmings, most religions make sense, and are quite often in agreement..
Well yes, they offer a humanist and tolerant message of hope. Then they bolt on God or Gods to give everyone something to believe in that they can never disprove due to the fairy dust around him.
Do it because it's the right thing to do, not because of some potential reward after death
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Or indeed, members of other religions.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
I went to a catholic sixth form, and as one of only two non Catholics, decided that I would protest by taking communion. It was a strange protest, and apparently (according to my head of sixth form) was 'taking the piss, even for you' Body of Christ tastes foul. Well, it would if it had any flavour.
There was a case in the US of a guy that was expelled from university for religious hatred after he stole the communion cracker.
LD are hitting the zero bound in plenty of seats so their vote is falling more than average in seats where LD are not defending against the Tories and where they are defending their seats from the Tories there are doing as badly as the national figures suggest.
So, they are doing worse than average everywhere?
Watford, Eastleigh and the urban Southwest they seem to be doing better than average ? Also Cumbria looks to be good for them.
And Orkney and Shetland will remain forever Yellow ^_~.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Or indeed, members of other religions.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
I went to a catholic sixth form, and as one of only two non Catholics, decided that I would protest by taking communion. It was a strange protest, and apparently (according to my head of sixth form) was 'taking the piss, even for you' Body of Christ tastes foul. Well, it would if it had any flavour.
There was a case in the US of a guy that was expelled from university for religious hatred after he stole the communion cracker.
I wasn't popular for a few weeks, but I didn't get canned for sure!
The earliest gospel makes no mention of that bit of the story, bits were bolted on later to suit the corporation message. If you strip out the fancy trimmings, most religions make sense, and are quite often in agreement..
Well yes, they offer a humanist and tolerant message of hope. Then they bolt on God or Gods to give everyone something to believe in that they can never disprove due to the fairy dust around him.
Do it because it's the right thing to do, not because of some potential reward after death
It's usually the other way round isn't it do it because if you don't you will be smited to beyond an inch of your life.
I am still trying to get my head around the implications of a sub 30 Lib Dem party. You have to go back to 1992 to see that.
One obvious implication that seems to me to be understated on here is that the window for a hung Parliament will be smaller than it has been for 23 years, a lot smaller. It is not quite old style 2 party politics but it is closer than we have seen for a long time.
IMO the odds on a hung Parliament reflect the fact that the majority are not over-enthused by either offering and think they both deserve to lose. But this poll and the Lib Dem meltdown it indicates reminds us that there is probably going to be a winner. My guess at the moment is that both the major parties will pick up a good dozen Lib Dem seats each with the Lib Dems losing a couple more to the SNP in Scotland.
1/3 of the non-Labservative MPs are non-LibDem, so if the LibDems lose half their seats that only shrinks the NOM zone by 1/3.
The earliest gospel makes no mention of that bit of the story, bits were bolted on later to suit the corporation message. If you strip out the fancy trimmings, most religions make sense, and are quite often in agreement..
Well yes, they offer a humanist and tolerant message of hope. Then they bolt on God or Gods to give everyone something to believe in that they can never disprove due to the fairy dust around him.
Do it because it's the right thing to do, not because of some potential reward after death
It's usually the other way round isn't it do it because if you don't you will be smited to beyond an inch of your life.
Perhaps. And it might explain a reluctance to make your car a target too. There is an increasingly bitter and aggressive edge to the Yes supporters and Unionists are generally keeping their head down.
I was in Edinburgh for an interview last week and was surprised not to see anything about the forthcoming referendum - except for some new editions of various Scottish history books at the railway station.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.
I don't think there will be a lot of medals for Scotland at the Commonwealths but hopefully there will be a surge of civic pride in a games well presented. The fact that that Virgin media salesman is apparently coming is excellent news.
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
I think the Commonwealth Games are as likely to engender a feeling of being in a global community with everyone coming together to be happy as a community of nations.
Everyone will, if the organisation is as good as it should be, be full of togetherness.
Not exactly the best environment for a leaving the Union message.
Are you on drugs.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
I can't see the likes of Pork giving anyone from south of the border the type of welcome you're suggesting. Malcolm will be busy in his minicab, over charging visitors desperate to get back to the airport and civilisation.
The earliest gospel makes no mention of that bit of the story, bits were bolted on later to suit the corporation message. If you strip out the fancy trimmings, most religions make sense, and are quite often in agreement..
Well yes, they offer a humanist and tolerant message of hope. Then they bolt on God or Gods to give everyone something to believe in that they can never disprove due to the fairy dust around him.
Do it because it's the right thing to do, not because of some potential reward after death
It's usually the other way round isn't it do it because if you don't you will be smited to beyond an inch of your life.
I am still trying to get my head around the implications of a sub 30 Lib Dem party. You have to go back to 1992 to see that.
One obvious implication that seems to me to be understated on here is that the window for a hung Parliament will be smaller than it has been for 23 years, a lot smaller. It is not quite old style 2 party politics but it is closer than we have seen for a long time.
IMO the odds on a hung Parliament reflect the fact that the majority are not over-enthused by either offering and think they both deserve to lose. But this poll and the Lib Dem meltdown it indicates reminds us that there is probably going to be a winner. My guess at the moment is that both the major parties will pick up a good dozen Lib Dem seats each with the Lib Dems losing a couple more to the SNP in Scotland.
1/3 of the non-Labservative MPs are non-LibDem, so if the LibDems lose half their seats that only shrinks the NOM zone by 1/3.
SNP could do quite well too to counteract some of the Lib Dem losses. And UKIP could pick up 3 seats or so. NOM is still a wide enough band, especially now we are heading into 4 party politics.
A Yes vote in September vastly increases the chance of a Conservative Majority in the GE after next though I think. But not this one.
''In a campaign that is increasingly being dominated by the economic implications'' -- and so it should be. Scotland will be no more Scottish if it's 'independent' than it will be less Scottish if it stays part of the United Kingdom. Scotland is Scottish, its people are Scottish. Currenmtly it can have all that Scottishness without the responsibility for sustaining it. I am not surprised the No vote is holding up.
If the vote is NO then Scotland can never claim to be a country again , we can throw it all in and just have GB teams etc and become a regional nonentity.
@dyedwoolie "I don't want salvation, I just want to sleep. And remain part of the fabric of the universe forever"
In that case you have to pin your hopes on the Ev contained in the Higgs boson (other physics models are available).
Hopes are irrelevant, what will be, will be. The day will come when all memory of me is gone, my only aim is to ensure that day is not whilst I still breathe,
''In a campaign that is increasingly being dominated by the economic implications'' -- and so it should be. Scotland will be no more Scottish if it's 'independent' than it will be less Scottish if it stays part of the United Kingdom. Scotland is Scottish, its people are Scottish. Currenmtly it can have all that Scottishness without the responsibility for sustaining it. I am not surprised the No vote is holding up.
If the vote is NO then Scotland can never claim to be a country again , we can throw it all in and just have GB teams etc and become a regional nonentity.
Nobody sensible has claimed that since 1707 anyway.
One issue is that too many of the people who might change things have emigrated to places like London.
Another issue is France's 2 stage electoral system, which largely keeps out the FN but also makes it harder for any radical parties with new ideas to make a break through.
Yes, and it's not helped by the antics of the centre-right in France, with their knack for back-stabbing, flouncing, amd getting caught up in unfortunate encounters with the judicial system. (Of course the socialists have impressive form on all three of those as well.)
Perhaps Mme Lagarde will come back and save the country, although even she has some 'legacy issues'.
France surely has exactly the same problem as Scotland. There are so many lazy envious leftists that anyone intelligent, well-educated, ambitious and enterprising feels unwelcome, so they leave and cross the border to work in England, where they are appreciated.
In consequence, the worse leftism fails the country, the more nailed on it is, because most of those who naturally oppose it have left.
Can you really be as thick as you post, must be a spoof. It is the numpties in England that vote the Lefties in and given arseholes like you typify the right wing nutters, it is no wonder ( assuming you are a real rightwing arsehole ). More likely you are spending time awaiting your Giro.
Toynbee is getting ever more delusional in her rants:
So a vote for the Conservatives next year amounts to an Out vote. If Scotland narrowly stays in the UK this time, they will certainly demand another vote and swing to leave a non-EU England; Wales might follow. Britain loses its UN security council seat and US presidents forget "special relationship" politesse.
I also like that she's appalled the Times fact checked the three million jobs at risk bollocks. How dare they demolish an untrue pro-EU claim??
Toynbee on the Tories getting back in is like Richard Nabavi on Labour getting elected ...
Winter will come and never depart, fell beasts will ravage the Northlands, from the western seas serpents will emerge, in the east dragons will spit vicious flames, southern rivers will run dry. Ravens will carry off the new born, the crops will fail. There will be no more joy as demons deploy across the frozen countryside and the cities fall foul of plague. Darkness will envelope the land, all goodness will die.
When the truth is it will probably be no different to what we have now, or had between 97-10
That may well be true, but an attention economy incentivises people like Polly to indulge in endless Jeremiads about the coming plagues o'er the land etc. I expect Ed's rule to be mostly ineffectual given he's flown here directly from Planet Wonk.
As a Tory, you must see how self-defeating keeping benefits for working people has been for your party, why has nothing been done by the Chancellor to take an axe to tax credits for working people, it dooms your party in the long term as the trend will always be for more government rather than less.
I don't think that logic quite stacks up. The problem is that those benefits were already being paid. From a purely party-political point of view, axing them rapidly would hardly be likely to endear the Tories to those middle-range voters whose support the party needs (see Bobafett of this parish and his outrage at having his freebies curtailed slightly).
It seems to me that the approach Osborne has taken is as good as is electorally possible. I agree with you on the end-point: we really shouldn't be paying benefits to anyone on average wages or more, let alone the well-off, which amounts to taxing them and then giving them some of them some of their money back, having deducted a huge admin fee. But getting there is not as easy as you make out. It will take three terms to get the welfare monster back under full control.
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
To be honest I'd far rather the situation we have here whereby we have nominal fusion of state and religion and very few religious nut jobs rather than the US where they have constitutional separation of church and state yet tons of vocal whack jobs.
@Carnyx Truly then it is as it is written, God is within us all. (after a bottle of whisky, I have been known to proclaim myself a diety, shortly before falling over)
Has anyone been linked with James Rodriguez btw - I know he plays a Monaco tax free and all but are any of the top dogs after him ?
Real Madrid have been linked with him.
Man U and Spurs had a chance/tried to sign him the past.
Rodriguez has expressed a desire to sign for Madrid, but the club has made no comment AFAIK - and his present team Monaco, are talking figures in excess of £80m for those that maybe interested. - A bale Bale/Rodriguez swap is not on the cards however..!
"Can you hazard a guess as to why the Tories didn't address these major imbalances in the economy early on by axing tax credits and benefits to working people in return for a higher tax free allowance and even a 2p cut on the basic rate."
If you're earning below the threshold then cutting your tax credits reduces your income and a tax cut won't hurt you. I'm very comfortable with tax credits for working people. It makes work pay.
''In a campaign that is increasingly being dominated by the economic implications'' -- and so it should be. Scotland will be no more Scottish if it's 'independent' than it will be less Scottish if it stays part of the United Kingdom. Scotland is Scottish, its people are Scottish. Currenmtly it can have all that Scottishness without the responsibility for sustaining it. I am not surprised the No vote is holding up.
If the vote is NO then Scotland can never claim to be a country again , we can throw it all in and just have GB teams etc and become a regional nonentity.
Salmond seems quite keen to sign you up to be a regional nonentity of the EU.
I may visit your wonderful hostelry someday. But, I have only five digits on each of my arms and legs.......will I be refused admittance into your sanctum? Or will I need to have extra ones grafted on?
Sean_F: France, too, is far more devout than England.
Richard_Nabavi: Are you sure about that, Sean? I'd be surprised, and I know France very well.
Perhaps Sean meant "Catholic".
I find the Catholic countries most tolerant of sin, with outward observance of rites far more important than inner conviction or abstinence from material pleasures.
Good old Nino, though more Roman than Gallic, is our very own posting example.
Can PBers who like football do me a favour please!
Can you reassure me, that Liverpool haven't had another "Andy Carroll" moment, by spending £25million on Adam Lallana.
He's a great signing if he's a addition to Liverpool ranks and not a replacement for suarez and yes mr Eagles,liverpool need to strengthen at the back.
Comments
Another issue is France's 2 stage electoral system, which largely keeps out the FN but also makes it harder for any radical parties with new ideas to make a break through.
Brighton Pavillion is quite a diverse constituency, lots of bedsit type dwellings in the southern end (students), mixed in with trendy, and very expensive for what they are, gentrified Victorian terraces and in the North lots of large and expensive houses (not uncommonly occupied by senior staff from the universities). So lots of middle class lefties.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Court_of_Human_Rights_judgments
I had to attend service in the cathedral every day, six days a week at school. The only day I was spared the BS was Sunday. It taught me to loathe religion, for which I am grateful.
Care services is a good fit for Mr Lamb.
He also benefits from being the Lib Dem government voice in the East of England, with Huppert without portfolio and Bob Russell a backbencher happier to focus locally.
Unless there are compelling local factors it would make Norfolk North a relatively comfortable Lib Dem hold, by at least 5,000 votes.
I went to Christian school and was told I had to attend religious services on a regular basis. When I said that I was not a believer, they said I had agreed to be part of this when I joined the school. I found it fairly absurd that as a 17 year old I was being held to choices made when I was 11. I eventually just stopped going and worked in the library during that hour, and they never took any action.
Perhaps Mme Lagarde will come back and save the country, although even she has some 'legacy issues'.
I was disappointed to find out the other day that the Domaine La Blaque Rhones I used to enjoy 10 or 12 years ago, and that I thought merely hard to find, are in fact impossible to find, because they're no longer distributed here. Another reason you need to be in France.
On another matter, here's a summary of the SNP's chances in 2015.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/the-snps-top-10-targets-at-westminster/
Body of Christ tastes foul. Well, it would if it had any flavour.
I see that schools themselves can apply for exemption to give an alternative worship (i.e. not Christian).
I imagine the 'religious observances' in Scotland are also compulsory but again there are opts out. I am not sure from the Humanist Society stuff whether those are specifically Christian but then Scotland is a secular state. And this is an interesting development -
http://accordcoalition.org.uk/2014/01/27/groundbreaking-call-to-make-school-assemblies-inclusive/
There remains the wider issue of whether the UK is truly not a secular state just because its largest constituent nation and principality (or two nations - I am not sure if the Church in Wales is formally separate from the C of E) is one of the last postmediaeval theocracies, at least in form. Interesting.
In consequence, the worse leftism fails the country, the more nailed on it is, because most of those who naturally oppose it have left.
Is this a token gesture, or is Aunty having a cull of all their in-house lefties?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-28105640
His brilliance and wisdom and mercy are unparalleled, his name is the byword for Kings.
All worship Julius Caesar, they named a month after him.
On the plus side, we get rid of all the arrogant selfish twats who can only see value when it has a price ticket.
The new schedule will see Adrian Chiles and Peter Allen host a new mid-morning programme, 5 live Daily, and a new afternoon show on every day but Friday.
He's almost as unpopular as Ed.
Maybe that's it, we are already beyond God, safe from his judgement. We have exees.
It is a most curious superstition. Why the heckfire would anyone want to eat their Messiah?
Do you reckon Ed Miliband kissed David Miliband on the cheek just before he betrayed him and snatched the Labour leadership from David's grasp?
Did Ed deny three times before the cock crowed that he knew David?
Can you reassure me, that Liverpool haven't had another "Andy Carroll" moment, by spending £25million on Adam Lallana.
LAB is marking its highest increases in LD-LAB seats, its lowest in other marginals and in most of the south.
CON are having an almost uniform fall.
UKIP is showing little increases in the cities but doing average on marginals which promises above average increases in their heartlands.
LD are hitting the zero bound in plenty of seats so their vote is falling more than average in seats where LD are not defending against the Tories and where they are defending their seats from the Tories there are doing as badly as the national figures suggest.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01727/ken-mili_1727522a.gif
Mainly because religion tends to be a power grab, and a little magic makes it seem complicated, and a paygrade or three above the general flock.
Management 1.01 really?
Death of West Midlands PCC Bob Jones to trigger byelection within 35 days
Jones, elected in November 2012, wrote in the Guardian that the role of police and crime commissioner should be scrapped
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jul/01/death-west-midlands-pcc-bob-jones-trigger-byelection-35-days
My neighbour tells me that the French are introducing a law which will oblige restaurateurs to state on the menu if a dish has been wholly prepared and cooked in the kitchen as opposed to being brought in and just heated. Even the Frogs, it would seem, are fed up with the crap food they are now commonly being served.
A stonking day's business.
The earliest gospel makes no mention of that bit of the story, bits were bolted on later to suit the corporation message.
If you strip out the fancy trimmings, most religions make sense, and are quite often in agreement..
The report recently which showed more than half of people get more out of the state than put in means people will be in favour of bigger and bigger government because they do see a direct benefit of more government in their bank balance. It used to be that the middle classes and aspirational working classes would want lower taxes to keep more of their own money, but with the system so distorted by benefits for those in work, people are seeing some necessity for higher taxes now.
As a Tory, you must see how self-defeating keeping benefits for working people has been for your party, why has nothing been done by the Chancellor to take an axe to tax credits for working people, it dooms your party in the long term as the trend will always be for more government rather than less.
Do it because it's the right thing to do, not because of some potential reward after death
Also Cumbria looks to be good for them.
And Orkney and Shetland will remain forever Yellow ^_~.
My hope of eternal salvation rests entirely on God having a warped sense of humour, so I am practically in the same boat as you.
We have and should sell all three for a combined £150 million minimum.
"I don't want salvation, I just want to sleep. And remain part of the fabric of the universe forever"
In that case you have to pin your hopes on the Ev contained in the Higgs boson (other physics models are available).
A Yes vote in September vastly increases the chance of a Conservative Majority in the GE after next though I think. But not this one.
You're north Britain, suck it up.
I 'ate you Butler!
Of course we will be a country, we have almost the same smug assurance of our superiority as the English, Welsh, Germans, Russians, et al.
Man U and Spurs had a chance/tried to sign him the past.
Who are you? Do I know you by any chance? I have a vague recollection of you from a previous post, but it might be a figment of my imagination.
I can't see Coutinho and Lallana in the same team.
Edit: I can now. Once Luis departs, play Sturridge up front, and Coutinho behind him.
It seems to me that the approach Osborne has taken is as good as is electorally possible. I agree with you on the end-point: we really shouldn't be paying benefits to anyone on average wages or more, let alone the well-off, which amounts to taxing them and then giving them some of them some of their money back, having deducted a huge admin fee. But getting there is not as easy as you make out. It will take three terms to get the welfare monster back under full control.
Ahh, you are the miracle worker who turns beer into almost water?
Stay in the EU 40 (+1)
Leave the EU 39 (+1)
Henderson is tomorrow's holding midfielder, but Lallana is better going forward. I still haven't worked out the angles though.
Does Sterling start?
Truly then it is as it is written, God is within us all.
(after a bottle of whisky, I have been known to proclaim myself a diety, shortly before falling over)
I'm assuming Sterling starts, but given we're going to be in the Champs league, I'm expecting a bit of rotation.
Gawds knows how we're going to fit in Alexis Sanchez.
Sturridge up top w Lallana, Sterling & Coutinho behind sounds good to me... If you get Sanchez. Too could be fantastic
The thing is, it's our defence that needs strengthening.
If you're earning below the threshold then cutting your tax credits reduces your income and a tax cut won't hurt you. I'm very comfortable with tax credits for working people. It makes work pay.
I may visit your wonderful hostelry someday. But, I have only five digits on each of my arms and legs.......will I be refused admittance into your sanctum? Or will I need to have extra ones grafted on?
Sean_F: France, too, is far more devout than England.
Richard_Nabavi: Are you sure about that, Sean? I'd be surprised, and I know France very well.
Perhaps Sean meant "Catholic".
I find the Catholic countries most tolerant of sin, with outward observance of rites far more important than inner conviction or abstinence from material pleasures.
Good old Nino, though more Roman than Gallic, is our very own posting example.
Lucas will enjoy a substantial profile in the campaign and the Greens will pour time, effort and wonga into keeping a toe hold in the Commons.
Accordingly the ARSE projection of one seat for the party appears correct.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
How many midfielders do you need?!
That's Gerrard, Coutinho, Sterling, Henderson, Lallana, Can, Markovic (if signed), Assaidi, Leiva, Allen. Plus some other young'uns.
http://www.aina.org/news/20140623185542.htm
Brendan is stocking up midfielders like a survivalist stocking up canned goods.