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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger
The big thing about today’s Indy Ref poll by YouGov for the Times is not that there’s been a slight increase in the NO lead but that the referendum election day, September 18th, is getting closer and YES still, apparently, has a mountain to climb.
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Next thread, please....*
* Do I have to beg?
I don’t think that will happen in the next 80 days, Alex Salmond has exhausted every avenue, both real & imagined.
He missed a great opportunity of appealing to the female voter by posing nude for a 2014 calendar.
* WAAAAGH = the Orldwide Ssociation for the Ssessment, Ppreciation and Dvancement of Orgeousness and Unkiness
2 hours .. 9 minutes .. 29 seconds
Tick tock ....
body language at Bannockburn was interesting......
What will be fascinating on September 19 is seeing which pollster got nearest.....a favourite Nat tactic now is to attack YouGov methodology......
".... I'm tied up in London and will cover this later."
..............................................................................
Such exotic pleasures in the nations capital used to be the preserve of the exceptionally well heeled, especially peers and MP's.
Those were the days .... moving on swiftly !!
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ie1bqvkbkp/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-300614.pdf
Tick tock......
And have been ridiculed for my prescience.
Just saying.
Should the result look like a foregone conclusion by polling day, isn't this likely to adversely affect turnout ? In which case the much vaunted figure of 75%+ might look a little high and instead Betfair's 70%-75% band could prove rewarding, currently on offer at 4, equivalent to 2.85/1 net in real money. Again, DYOR.
In betting terms there remains some value in the turnout markets that are broadly underestimating voter enthusiasm by several points.
I dare say someone will dig out the evidence one day.
Wow .... if you're right there are some rich pickings to be had, Ladbrokes are currently offering 10/1 against a Yes vote of between 30%-35%.
Will Harris be deported to Australia ? .... we do have a historical track record in this regard and of course the old colony hasn't been slow in chucking back to the UK convicted sex offenders who might have been in Oz for some time but were not Australian citizens.
Harris will also lose his AO and CBE.
Oops, in my post above at 7.24am, the reference to "No vote" should of course have read "Yes vote" ....... close!
On the cusp of the swinging Sixties .... A Scottish peer as PM .... Mike Smithson had hair and plenty of it ....
Those were the days my friend I thought they'd never end .... (there's a song there somewhere)
I think it is hard for those not in Scotland to understand how much this is now dominating every day conversation in Scotland. I am involved in discussions about it pretty much every day.
The major sticking points are those Osborne brought into play. The currency, the lender of last resort, the effect on financial services. In short the economy stupid, as Curtice points out.
Last night in a debate I was at a University lecturer of some distinction pointed out that at present Scotland gets 18% of the grants from the British science Council. Not bad given we have 8% of the population and yet another income stream that the Scottish government would have to replace. The debate reflected the audience but the viability of Scottish Universities without English fees was a major topic.
Why am I not confident in light of all of this? Well, if you go around Edinburgh in particular you will see dozens of yes stickers in windows and almost no Better Together stickers. You see Yes on many, many cars. Again the Unionist equivalents are almost non existent. I inevitably spend my time with the haves who have too much to lose but they are outnumbered by the have nots who don't.
I still think this is going to be close. If the tories got a consistent lead in the national polling and looked set for majority government by September I could see it being very close. That remains the biggest risk factor here.
YES have been dragging up the prospect of a Conservative government for months with tales of baby eating Tory monsters roaming the land and feasting off infant Scots. However my fellow countryman seem to have felt that Nick Soames and Eric Pickles need a decent feed from plump ankle biters.
It's all done and dusted bar the voting and the puce faces of the more excitable YES protagonists.
Now Carnyx, my old fruit, what say you about the latest polls ?
It's looking grim for YES. Have they a miraculous rabbit in their hat to be extricated or do you believe we are into the slow day by day countdown to a significant rebuff for Wee Eck ?
You may recant ....
50 minutes
If it were a 3:2 or 2:1 split (for No) would Salmond resign?
I suspect not, but thought the question worth asking.
Perhaps the cost of replacing 18th century sash windows may be the major deterrent?
Early (if admittedly not very) days yet. It's no great change (within MOE I presume), despite the Times headline. I always thought the period of the hols and the Commonwealth Games was going to be fairly quiet politically as most people have other things to think about (which is pretty much what I said a few days ago, so it's not just a response to this). So we may as well wait till the Games are over and things liven up again. I'll be particularly interested in the impact of the recent Tory crossover for GE VI and of the EU issue.
But my point was that looking at the traditional means of gauging political support Yes is heading for a landslide. Why do political parties do this in bye elections and elections generally? Because they think it creates its own momentum and enthusiasm. Looking at the posters rather than the polls only 1 side has that.
Polly on sparkling form today - Kippers look away now..
"Time for gloves off with Ukip voters. Stop pretending a Ukip vote is respectable and call Faragists out as job-destroying racists and xenophobes. "
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 26(26) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 302 days left to go factor and using UKPR
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28103223
Of course, such a lack of vandalism is just as it should be.
It has long been apparent that YouGov are amongst the companies that tend to paint a relatively pessimistic picture of the Yes side’s prospects. But even by the standards of its previous polls, the company’s latest poll, conducted for The Times, must be regarded as a considerable disappointment for those working in the Yes side’s offices in Glasgow’s Hope St.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/07/a-step-backwards-for-yes-latest-yougov-poll/
If replicated in the rest of the weeks polling, it will have a net upswing for the blues on the Dyedwoolie monitor, but Ed still headed for number 10 as it stands.
Yes needs adrenalin.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest McARSE Scottish Referendum Projection (Changes Since 18th June) :
Should Scotland Be An Independent Country ?
YES 38% (-1) .. No 62% (+1)
Turnout Projection 81% (NC)
......................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
McARSE - My Caledonian Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Not sure that line will go down well with socially conservative white working class voters elsewhere, though.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n10/perry-anderson/the-italian-disaster
UKIP to cost Chloe Norwich North
UKIP to take Gt Yarmouth and Gt Grimsby
Cons to take all Cornish seats
Labour to regain all seats lost to Tories in London in 2010
Cons to gain Dumfries and Galloway and Berwickshire, borders go blue
In the event of a NO vote, Tories to gain Banff and Buchan in the shock of the night
Lib Dems under 25 seats
Norman Lamb to get his p45 from the voters of North Norfolk
Lib Dems to GAIN one seat. Possibly Montgomeryshire
Greens to win 2 seats, gaining Norwich South.
The first day of the month is when Markit publishes its most comprehensive set of PMIs for the previous month. We await the UK Manufacturing PMI which will be published at 9:30.
In the meantime here is a fairly broad selection of countries. The story in brief.
China recovering which bodes well for global trade but the Eurozone core countries - Germany, France, Italy - retreat. The reformed peripherals though - Ireland, Spain - are all doing well against the trend.
France is an utter disaster. Not just slow growth, but accelerating contraction.
And Hollande wants the EU Members to borrow money to bail him out!
One good apparent indicator is that deflation in Europe is abating, although more time is needed to tell whether this is a blip or trend,
Anyway, here goes:
China
PMI up to 50.7 in June from 49.4 in May
Key points
• Output rises for the first time since January
• Stocks of finished goods decline at strongest rate since September 2011
• Rate of job shedding eases
Russia
PMI 49.1 just above 48.3 (average for last 3 months)
Key Points
• Resumption in output growth and slower job shedding push PMI closer to no-change mark
• New orders slide back into contraction
• Slower inflation of input and output prices
Ireland
PMI 55.3 up slightly from 55.0 in May
Key Points
• New orders rise at fastest pace in 40 months
• Employment up for 13th successive month
• Production growth slowed
Turkey
PMI fell to 48.8 from 50.1 in May
Key Points
• Output declines for first time since July 2012
• New orders contract for second month running and at faster pace
• Input price inflation at 13-month low
Poland
PMI fell to 48.8 from 50.1 in May
Key Points
• Flat trend in new orders weighs on headline PMI
• Output and employment rise modestly
• Input prices fall for fifth successive month
Netherlands
PMI fell to 52.3 from 53.6 in May
Key Points
• Employment up and input prices up
• Export orders rose but domestic market subdued
• Output growth eased to an 11-month low
Spain
PMI rises to 54.6 from 52.9
Key Points
Key Points
• Sharp increase in new orders, best since April 2007
• Output up for 7th consecutive month with investment goods leading
• Employment and Output rates both accelerated
Czech Republic
PMI down to 54.7 from 57.3 in May
Key Points
• All components growing above trend
• Sharp drop in rates of growth responding to slowdown in Germany
• Input prices stabilised allowing small growth in output pricing
[to be continued]
France
PMI down to 48.2 from 49.6 in Many
Key Points
• Output levels return to contraction
• Sharper declines in new orders and employment
• Input cost inflation strongest since December 2013
Markit comment:
“France’s manufacturing sector is back in reverse gear and weakness looks set to persist through the summer. Deteriorating business conditions were
reflected in cuts to production levels for the first time in five months and the fastest reduction in new orders so far this year. June’s survey pointed to weakening demand from both domestic and export clients, which in turn placed further downwards pressure on factory gate charges.
Squeezed operating margins and a return to falling output volumes contributed to the steepest pace of
manufacturing job shedding since the end of 2013.”
Italy
PMI down to 52.6 from 53.2 in May (but unlike France still above 50)
Key Points
• PMI at three-month low as output and orders rise at slower rates
• Export business shows further sharp increase
• Input price inflation at six-month high
Germany
PMI down to 52.0 from 52.3 in May
Key Points
• Headline PMI drops to eight-month low of 52.0 as output growth slows
• New orders rise at weakest rate in almost one year
• Employment stagnates, ending six-month sequence of growth
If that does happen, will the SNP finally recognise that the main block to independence is SLAB? Reducing SLAB at every election should then become the SNP main goal, because another referendum would then be 10+ years away. Also if the SNP are to stay left wing, then they do need to separate the unions from SLAB.
The analysts point out that Ukip's vote is geographically concentrated, posing a problem for the Conservatives in the east of England and the Kent and Essex coasts, and they are potentially viable general election competitors for the first time in their strongholds."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4133865.ece
http://www.election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/two-oppositions-article-for-times.html
A dreadful smear that should not go unchallenged - she has a third property in Lewes.
So a vote for the Conservatives next year amounts to an Out vote. If Scotland narrowly stays in the UK this time, they will certainly demand another vote and swing to leave a non-EU England; Wales might follow. Britain loses its UN security council seat and US presidents forget "special relationship" politesse.
I also like that she's appalled the Times fact checked the three million jobs at risk bollocks. How dare they demolish an untrue pro-EU claim??
From Cameron mark 2, expect the effective dismantling of much of the BBC and marketisation of the rest of the NHS. Gove plans chains of for-profit schools. National pay rates will be broken, paying public servants in already poor places less. Beecroft's "fire at will" deregulations will be back. The juggernaut of cuts to come, still only half done, will hit even harder, says the Institute of Fiscal Studies, since tax rises and capital cuts are already banked, leaving deeper service and staff cuts.
I have to say, she is making a pretty good for me to switch my vote back to the Tories...
Merci, Monsieur!
And now for something completely different...
The UK CIPS/Markit Manufacturing PMI for June:
Manufacturing PMI 57.5 for June up from 57.0 in May
Key Points
• Order inflows strengthen as demand improves in domestic and export markets
• Job creation at 39-month high, led by rising SME headcounts
The rate of growth accelerates again after to second best reading since the records began (after November 2013). Q2 2014 recorded the highest average manufacturing PMIs for over 20 years.
Incoming new business rose at fastest pace since last November and manufacturers reported increased order books from Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Manufacturing employment rose for the 14th successive month. All sectors reported jobs up but the steepest rise was in SMEs.
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
Well Markit's Senior Economist addresses this question in his commentary:
“Sustaining the recovery will remain the key and, on this front, the news also remained upbeat. As a broader expansion is also a more sustainable expansion, the ongoing surging growth of output and new orders across capital, consumer and intermediate goods producers alike is exactly what is required. Solid job creation across these sectors and at both SMEs and large producers bodes well not just for manufacturing but for sustaining the broader economic upturn as well.”
So even the disappointing retail sales forecast put out by the BRC last week can't dampen the upbeat spirit.
It can't go on for ever though and I still expect a slowdown in the second half of the fiscal year but let's enjoy the good weather while it lasts.
Let's remind ourselves again of the Eurozone performance:
Countries ranked by Manufacturing PMI®: June Does Europe really want Juncker running the EU Commission? Are they sure?
'Yes' by definition will vote, however,
'No' we should not be an independent country - committed to that, or just don't care?
There's your squeeze.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/europe-28087824
I know you secretly want it
Especially if they rely on by elections in unfavourable seats as their starting point
SLAB ought to be very worried because their voters are already being targeted for indyref by the Yes campaign (not the same thing as the SNP, and that is a key distinction here: ignoring it is very misleading even if some of us like to equate those two things with Mr Salmond).
Even a 40/60 Yes/No (and I think it will be a lot tighter) would give a lot of prior Labour voters who voted Yes and/or will have been upset by perceiving right-wing Labour in bed with the Tories, or still worse acting as their little helpers under their orders.
That is a lot of votes that could be lost. And that would apply in the next UKGE at once, never mind waiting till after that.
In the meantime we are settling down to watch Murray and the Commonwealth Games.
Ps Edinburgh as the polls show will be one of the core support bases for No. In Glasgow where the real battle is no-one shows their allegiance for fear of being judged. Even the Scottish flag stickers on the cars have almost entirely disappeared. Parade season about to start.
It could be worse, I'll grant you.
Good.
Good girl
I tend to agree with Avery that things cannot continue at this rate but I do expect above trend growth for all of next year as well as the second half of this. It will be a remarkable record to sell in May.
One possible downside for the Tories is that growth like this is going to continue to suck in the work starved of Europe, particularly eastern Europe, for the duration. The UK is becoming the employment capital of Europe and there is no way that immigration is going to fall against this backdrop.
As for France, oh dear. Schadenfreude is not really healthy and they are very rapidly becoming the major weak spot for the EZ as a whole and a threat to its stability. Socialist governments, eh? What a crock.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/21/world/europe/number-of-french-jews-emigrating-to-israel-rises-sharply.html?_r=0
A classic case of needing to confront intolerance early.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.