Perhaps. And it might explain a reluctance to make your car a target too. There is an increasingly bitter and aggressive edge to the Yes supporters and Unionists are generally keeping their head down.
I was in Edinburgh for an interview last week and was surprised not to see anything about the forthcoming referendum - except for some new editions of various Scottish history books at the railway station.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.
I don't think there will be a lot of medals for Scotland at the Commonwealths but hopefully there will be a surge of civic pride in a games well presented. The fact that that Virgin media salesman is apparently coming is excellent news.
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
I think it needs to continue for at least the next year to make good the ground we have lost since 2010, and for the entire length of the next Parliament to begin to reverse the long-term decline suffered in the preceding decade.
Re ScotRef. 'Yes' by definition will vote, however, 'No' we should not be an independent country - committed to that, or just don't care? There's your squeeze.
Woolie you are among the few sane voices on here that make me persevere on the site despite the tone of the place in general.
Perhaps. And it might explain a reluctance to make your car a target too. There is an increasingly bitter and aggressive edge to the Yes supporters and Unionists are generally keeping their head down.
I was in Edinburgh for an interview last week and was surprised not to see anything about the forthcoming referendum - except for some new editions of various Scottish history books at the railway station.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.
I don't think there will be a lot of medals for Scotland at the Commonwealths but hopefully there will be a surge of civic pride in a games well presented. The fact that that Virgin media salesman is apparently coming is excellent news.
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
I think the Commonwealth Games are as likely to engender a feeling of being in a global community with everyone coming together to be happy as a community of nations.
Everyone will, if the organisation is as good as it should be, be full of togetherness.
Not exactly the best environment for a leaving the Union message.
Scotland is off on holiday from this week so the polls if any may be volatile for the next 6 weeks. It is hard at the moment to see what the game changer will be but I am sure Salmond has a few plans up his sleeves for the last few weeks before the referendum. These will probably be about making lots of promises he can never really meet and hoping that enough people fall for it.
In the meantime we are settling down to watch Murray and the Commonwealth Games.
Ps Edinburgh as the polls show will be one of the core support bases for No. In Glasgow where the real battle is no-one shows their allegiance for fear of being judged. Even the Scottish flag stickers on the cars have almost entirely disappeared. Parade season about to start.
yes when you look at those aligned with the unionists it makes you wonder how any intelligent person could vote NO to perpetuate these dinosaurs.
Perhaps. And it might explain a reluctance to make your car a target too. There is an increasingly bitter and aggressive edge to the Yes supporters and Unionists are generally keeping their head down.
I was in Edinburgh for an interview last week and was surprised not to see anything about the forthcoming referendum - except for some new editions of various Scottish history books at the railway station.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.
I don't think there will be a lot of medals for Scotland at the Commonwealths but hopefully there will be a surge of civic pride in a games well presented. The fact that that Virgin media salesman is apparently coming is excellent news.
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
I think the Commonwealth Games are as likely to engender a feeling of being in a global community with everyone coming together to be happy as a community of nations.
Everyone will, if the organisation is as good as it should be, be full of togetherness.
Not exactly the best environment for a leaving the Union message.
Re ScotRef. 'Yes' by definition will vote, however, 'No' we should not be an independent country - committed to that, or just don't care? There's your squeeze.
Woolie you are among the few sane voices on here that make me persevere on the site despite the tone of the place in general.
Funny, since the tone is normally lowered by your numerous abusive posts.
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
I think it needs to continue for at least the next year to make good the ground we have lost since 2010, and for the entire length of the next Parliament to begin to reverse the long-term decline suffered in the preceding decade.
It could be worse, I'll grant you.
Did you mean 2008 or 2010?
I meant 2010. Relative strength in the service sector of the UK economy obscures a couple of terrible years for manufacturing since 2010.
However, a quick check of the ONS figures shows that I was perhaps being too pessimistic on that. Manufacturing is now 3% larger than in 2010, though that's a long way behind Services, which has grown by 7.4% in the same time.
Perhaps. And it might explain a reluctance to make your car a target too. There is an increasingly bitter and aggressive edge to the Yes supporters and Unionists are generally keeping their head down.
I was in Edinburgh for an interview last week and was surprised not to see anything about the forthcoming referendum - except for some new editions of various Scottish history books at the railway station.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.
I don't think there will be a lot of medals for Scotland at the Commonwealths but hopefully there will be a surge of civic pride in a games well presented. The fact that that Virgin media salesman is apparently coming is excellent news.
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
I think the Commonwealth Games are as likely to engender a feeling of being in a global community with everyone coming together to be happy as a community of nations.
Everyone will, if the organisation is as good as it should be, be full of togetherness.
Not exactly the best environment for a leaving the Union message.
that and the locals cheering on British stars like Tom Daly, David Millar and Mo Farah.
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
I think it needs to continue for at least the next year to make good the ground we have lost since 2010, and for the entire length of the next Parliament to begin to reverse the long-term decline suffered in the preceding decade.
It could be worse, I'll grant you.
Did you mean 2008 or 2010?
I meant 2010. Relative strength in the service sector of the UK economy obscures a couple of terrible years for manufacturing since 2010.
However, a quick check of the ONS figures shows that I was perhaps being too pessimistic on that. Manufacturing is now 3% larger than in 2010, though that's a long way behind Services, which has grown by 7.4% in the same time.
I would have thought it was poor manufacturing years from about 2005 or 2006
Re ScotRef. 'Yes' by definition will vote, however, 'No' we should not be an independent country - committed to that, or just don't care? There's your squeeze.
Woolie you are among the few sane voices on here that make me persevere on the site despite the tone of the place in general.
Funny, since the tone is normally lowered by your numerous abusive posts.
So would the ECHR have done that if the lawmaker was the UK?
I haven't seen the judgement, so can't say for certain. However, as the UK unlike France, is not officially a secular State, I imagine that a ban in this country would not be upheld.
Re ScotRef. 'Yes' by definition will vote, however, 'No' we should not be an independent country - committed to that, or just don't care? There's your squeeze.
Woolie you are among the few sane voices on here that make me persevere on the site despite the tone of the place in general.
Funny, since the tone is normally lowered by your numerous abusive posts.
Back under your rock cretin
The quality of abuse from 'Wings over Watford' is substandard these days.
Re ScotRef. 'Yes' by definition will vote, however, 'No' we should not be an independent country - committed to that, or just don't care? There's your squeeze.
Woolie you are among the few sane voices on here that make me persevere on the site despite the tone of the place in general.
Funny, since the tone is normally lowered by your numerous abusive posts.
Back under your rock cretin
The quality of abuse from 'Wings over Watford' is substandard these days.
I see your geography is good, Watford is not anywhere near Scotland but it does explain your stupidity.
JACKW's alter ego posting as himself. Two cheeks of the same ARSE.
Perhaps. And it might explain a reluctance to make your car a target too. There is an increasingly bitter and aggressive edge to the Yes supporters and Unionists are generally keeping their head down.
I was in Edinburgh for an interview last week and was surprised not to see anything about the forthcoming referendum - except for some new editions of various Scottish history books at the railway station.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.
I don't think there will be a lot of medals for Scotland at the Commonwealths but hopefully there will be a surge of civic pride in a games well presented. The fact that that Virgin media salesman is apparently coming is excellent news.
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
I think the Commonwealth Games are as likely to engender a feeling of being in a global community with everyone coming together to be happy as a community of nations.
Everyone will, if the organisation is as good as it should be, be full of togetherness.
Not exactly the best environment for a leaving the Union message.
Are you on drugs.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
The Times' headline is based on nothing at all. There is no "turning away" going on. The polling is static. So time running out for Yes - but an entirely misleading headline by a once-great newspaper that has become a biased, propaganda sheet.
Did you imagine that Ed M, Tom Watson et al going to war with News International would be without consequence? Grow up.
So would the ECHR have done that if the lawmaker was the UK?
I haven't seen the judgement, so can't say for certain. However, as the UK unlike France, is not officially a secular State, I imagine that a ban in this country would not be upheld.
It was a very wide challenge to the law, rather than putting emphasis on any particular aspects of it - so there may well be future challenges, based on, for example, the ability of private employers to demand the removal of headscarfs, etc.
I must admit a quick scan of France's arguments was not very compelling.
For once the BBC has got very quickly onto this so I await the judgment or any full account. [I'm just translating the French at the moment.]
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
I think it needs to continue for at least the next year to make good the ground we have lost since 2010, and for the entire length of the next Parliament to begin to reverse the long-term decline suffered in the preceding decade.
It could be worse, I'll grant you.
Did you mean 2008 or 2010?
I meant 2010. Relative strength in the service sector of the UK economy obscures a couple of terrible years for manufacturing since 2010.
However, a quick check of the ONS figures shows that I was perhaps being too pessimistic on that. Manufacturing is now 3% larger than in 2010, though that's a long way behind Services, which has grown by 7.4% in the same time.
I would have thought it was poor manufacturing years from about 2005 or 2006
UK Manufacturing has struggled since 2000, when the Index peaked at 110.3 for the year (2010 = 100). The annual values from 2005 are:
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? Seems rather agin the spirit of the games. I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
So would the ECHR have done that if the lawmaker was the UK?
I haven't seen the judgement, so can't say for certain. However, as the UK unlike France, is not officially a secular State, I imagine that a ban in this country would not be upheld.
Surely the UK is a secular state? It does contain one constituent nation which is a Church-State fusion (England), but the other nations had their Established churches disestablished long ago. Or am I missing something of practical importance?
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
Isn't Surrey where that fine tennis player, and even finer Briton, Andy Murray lives.
IIRC - He lives in JohnO's neck of the woods.
(I know he's not competing in the Commonwealth Games, I think)
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
I think it needs to continue for at least the next year to make good the ground we have lost since 2010, and for the entire length of the next Parliament to begin to reverse the long-term decline suffered in the preceding decade.
It could be worse, I'll grant you.
Did you mean 2008 or 2010?
I meant 2010. Relative strength in the service sector of the UK economy obscures a couple of terrible years for manufacturing since 2010.
However, a quick check of the ONS figures shows that I was perhaps being too pessimistic on that. Manufacturing is now 3% larger than in 2010, though that's a long way behind Services, which has grown by 7.4% in the same time.
I would have thought it was poor manufacturing years from about 2005 or 2006
UK Manufacturing has struggled since 2000, when the Index peaked at 110.3 for the year (2010 = 100). The annual values from 2005 are:
On current trends the 2014 figure will exceed the previous post-recession high in 2011, but will still be well down on the peaks in 2000 or 2007.
I suspect some of those figures will look a little different after the revisals in the next couple of months. But the overall picture of us going nowhere for the best part of a decade will not fundamentally change.
What is really encouraging at the moment is that there seems to be a surge in investment in manufacturing which gives hope for the future.
Perhaps. And it might explain a reluctance to make your car a target too. There is an increasingly bitter and aggressive edge to the Yes supporters and Unionists are generally keeping their head down.
I was in Edinburgh for an interview last week and was surprised not to see anything about the forthcoming referendum - except for some new editions of various Scottish history books at the railway station.
There's the Commonwealth Games to come in Glasgow in three weeks and a day. That might spark a mood of national self-confidence. Maybe there is a dramatic shift in the polls to come before the campaign enters its final month.
I don't think there will be a lot of medals for Scotland at the Commonwealths but hopefully there will be a surge of civic pride in a games well presented. The fact that that Virgin media salesman is apparently coming is excellent news.
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
I think the Commonwealth Games are as likely to engender a feeling of being in a global community with everyone coming together to be happy as a community of nations.
Everyone will, if the organisation is as good as it should be, be full of togetherness.
Not exactly the best environment for a leaving the Union message.
Are you on drugs.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
I can't see the likes of Pork giving anyone from south of the border the type of welcome you're suggesting. Malcolm will be busy in his minicab, over charging visitors desperate to get back to the airport and civilisation.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? Seems rather agin the spirit of the games. I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
The feeling generated by the Games will overwhelmingly be one of togetherness rather than apartness.
It's a subconscious thing, innit; trust me if it were up to me I would cut Surrey off in a heartbeat.
The Liberal Democrats’ vote has fallen by half in constituencies where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling in marginal seats.
My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – though as we saw in my polling of Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, swings are very far from uniform where the Lib Dems are concerned.
It is also important to emphasise again that like all polls, this is a snapshot not a forecast. Taken together, though, my two latest battleground surveys suggest up to half of all Lib Dem MPs could be at risk next May.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
Isn't Surrey where that fine tennis player, and even finer Briton, Andy Murray lives.
IIRC - He lives in JohnO's neck of the woods.
(I know he's not competing in the Commonwealth Games, I think)
''In a campaign that is increasingly being dominated by the economic implications'' -- and so it should be. Scotland will be no more Scottish if it's 'independent' than it will be less Scottish if it stays part of the United Kingdom. Scotland is Scottish, its people are Scottish. Currenmtly it can have all that Scottishness without the responsibility for sustaining it. I am not surprised the No vote is holding up.
My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – though as we saw in my polling of Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, swings are very far from uniform where the Lib Dems are concerned.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
Isn't Surrey where that fine tennis player, and even finer Briton, Andy Murray lives.
IIRC - He lives in JohnO's neck of the woods.
(I know he's not competing in the Commonwealth Games, I think)
No tennis, so no.
Well I'm going to the hockey (and something else, which I've forgotten about)
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? Seems rather agin the spirit of the games. I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
The feeling generated by the Games will overwhelmingly be one of togetherness rather than apartness.
It's a subconscious thing, innit; trust me if it were up to me I would cut Surrey off in a heartbeat.
Hmm. I seem to remember on here that Olympic togetherness consisted of crowing over stuffing the French & Aussies in the medal table. Perhaps I misremember..
The problem with the SNP leadership's economic policy for independence is that it actually implies as much control from Westminster as before, but with less ability to influence policy. That's not a great sell.
The decision in SAS v France (I can find no obvious suggestion that such reasoning would not apply in the UK, although all cases brought before the the ECtHR are fact-specific).
We can not accept that the general prohibition imposed by the law of 11 October 2010 is necessary in a democratic society or for public security or public safety, for the purposes of Articles 8 and 9 of the Convention... [However,] particularly with regard to the magnitude of the margin of appreciation available to the defendant State in this case, the Court concludes that the ban posed the law of 11 October 2010 can be regarded as proportionate to the aim pursued, namely the preservation conditions of "living together" [translation?] as part of the "protection of the rights and freedoms of others".
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
I think it needs to continue for at least the next year to make good the ground we have lost since 2010, and for the entire length of the next Parliament to begin to reverse the long-term decline suffered in the preceding decade.
It could be worse, I'll grant you.
Did you mean 2008 or 2010?
I meant 2010. Relative strength in the service sector of the UK economy obscures a couple of terrible years for manufacturing since 2010.
However, a quick check of the ONS figures shows that I was perhaps being too pessimistic on that. Manufacturing is now 3% larger than in 2010, though that's a long way behind Services, which has grown by 7.4% in the same time.
I would have thought it was poor manufacturing years from about 2005 or 2006
UK Manufacturing has struggled since 2000, when the Index peaked at 110.3 for the year (2010 = 100). The annual values from 2005 are:
On current trends the 2014 figure will exceed the previous post-recession high in 2011, but will still be well down on the peaks in 2000 or 2007.
Yes but is this the whole picture? Is this index nrelated to GDP. Certainly as a %age of GDP manufacturing has fallen, but what about in absolute terms? Other activities have been added to GDP which would inevitably make the %age decline. I have read that real industrial output increased over 40% between 1970 and 2000. I Ialso read that we are the 6th largest manufacturer by volume in the world. No doubt as the rest of the world grows that proportion will decline but our manufacturing will or could still grow in absolute terms.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? Seems rather agin the spirit of the games. I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
The feeling generated by the Games will overwhelmingly be one of togetherness rather than apartness.
It's a subconscious thing, innit; trust me if it were up to me I would cut Surrey off in a heartbeat.
Hmm. I seem to remember on here that Olympic togetherness consisted of crowing over stuffing the French & Aussies in the medal table. Perhaps I misremember..
Well if we can't all get together and agree about things like that something is very far wrong.
The Liberal Democrats’ vote has fallen by half in constituencies where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling in marginal seats.
My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – though as we saw in my polling of Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, swings are very far from uniform where the Lib Dems are concerned.
It is also important to emphasise again that like all polls, this is a snapshot not a forecast. Taken together, though, my two latest battleground surveys suggest up to half of all Lib Dem MPs could be at risk next May.
Something for the memory locker, a pic of UKIP's sole Scottish elected representative in a kilt. He appears to have gone for the maxi look, the opposite to Jack McConnell's mini kilt. No danger of a glimpse of knees, or worse, thank God.
As I remember during the Olympics in London, the feeling was one of one big happy global family.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
Why do you think the goodwill would apply to a denizen of Surrey more than all those brothers & sisters from independent, sovereign countries who happen to be part of the Commonwealth? Seems rather agin the spirit of the games. I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
The feeling generated by the Games will overwhelmingly be one of togetherness rather than apartness.
It's a subconscious thing, innit; trust me if it were up to me I would cut Surrey off in a heartbeat.
Hmm. I seem to remember on here that Olympic togetherness consisted of crowing over stuffing the French & Aussies in the medal table. Perhaps I misremember..
That was just us Yorkshire folk, pointing just how successful Yorkshire were.
Toynbee is getting ever more delusional in her rants:
So a vote for the Conservatives next year amounts to an Out vote. If Scotland narrowly stays in the UK this time, they will certainly demand another vote and swing to leave a non-EU England; Wales might follow. Britain loses its UN security council seat and US presidents forget "special relationship" politesse.
I also like that she's appalled the Times fact checked the three million jobs at risk bollocks. How dare they demolish an untrue pro-EU claim??
Toynbee on the Tories getting back in is like Richard Nabavi on Labour getting elected ...
Winter will come and never depart, fell beasts will ravage the Northlands, from the western seas serpents will emerge, in the east dragons will spit vicious flames, southern rivers will run dry. Ravens will carry off the new born, the crops will fail. There will be no more joy as demons deploy across the frozen countryside and the cities fall foul of plague. Darkness will envelope the land, all goodness will die.
What's interesting is that the UK economy seems to be growing at an annualised rate of around 3.5%, but we also seem to have endless "spare capacity", there doesn't seem to be a hard limit on our economic capacity at the moment. Monetary easing, combined with low inflation, liberal labour laws and corporate cash hordes being invested has taken the roof off our "trend growth". Where ~2.5% growth was our trend before the recession under Labour, I could see a scenario where we return to a higher growth capacity from now on with our trend moving up to around 3.5%. Having a flexible labour market is really the most important factor in all of this, and the move by St Vince to remove exclusivity from zero hour contracts is welcome so that economic efficiency can be maximised and output per worker will begin to rise for part time employees.
The part that the government need to get to grips with is that with 3.5% growth and 1.5% spending growth, the deficit only closes by around £12bn per year without any cuts. It would take 6 full years to balance the budget without spending cuts. The need to cut spending is as paramount today as it was in 2010. The public seem to think the worst is over, but with above trend growth we need 6 years to eliminate the deficit and balance the budget. If a recession were to hit in that time the country would be left without any recourse but to take an axe to middle class welfare and welfare for working people. The Tories need to set the tone of this debate before they find themselves having to propose something slightly less onerous than Labour on wealth taxes because Joe Public wants to try and make the rich pay. Something which does not work.
One possible downside for the Tories is that growth like this is going to continue to suck in the work starved of Europe, particularly eastern Europe, for the duration. The UK is becoming the employment capital of Europe and there is no way that immigration is going to fall against this backdrop.
When the last jobs figures came out the headline pointed out that 9 out of 10 new jobs went to UK workers. The plain harsh fact is that all of us in work or retired benefit from immigrant labour. its keeping inflation down and keeping the economy booming. On top of which companies are stiing in record piles of cash and so can quickly spend it to invest if they need to. this suggests to me that 'trend growth' could be some way off. The great tradgedy is the numbers of unemployable Brits parked on benefits. Its a shocking legacy left by Labour.
Something for the memory locker, a pic of UKIP's sole Scottish elected representative in a kilt. He appears to have gone for the maxi look, the opposite to Jack McConnell's mini kilt. No danger of a glimpse of knees, or worse, thank God.
The Liberal Democrats’ vote has fallen by half in constituencies where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling in marginal seats.
My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – though as we saw in my polling of Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, swings are very far from uniform where the Lib Dems are concerned.
It is also important to emphasise again that like all polls, this is a snapshot not a forecast. Taken together, though, my two latest battleground surveys suggest up to half of all Lib Dem MPs could be at risk next May.
The Liberal Democrats’ vote has fallen by half in constituencies where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling in marginal seats. My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – .... http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/07/liberal-democrat-labour-battleground/
One possible downside for the Tories is that growth like this is going to continue to suck in the work starved of Europe, particularly eastern Europe, for the duration. The UK is becoming the employment capital of Europe and there is no way that immigration is going to fall against this backdrop.
When the last jobs figures came out the headline pointed out that 9 out of 10 new jobs went to UK workers. The plain harsh fact is that all of us in work or retired benefit from immigrant labour. its keeping inflation down and keeping the economy booming. On top of which companies are stiing in record piles of cash and so can quickly spend it to invest if they need to. this suggests to me that 'trend growth' could be some way off. The great tradgedy is the numbers of unemployable Brits parked on benefits. Its a shocking legacy left by Labour.
Firstly, it is utterly ridiculous to speak of immigrant labour as one thing. There's a huge difference between Polish plumbers, Japanese investment bankers and Somali road sweepers.
Secondly, it's not at all "a fact" that all of us in work benefit from immigrant labour. Your own post admitted it kept inflation down, and the mechanism for doing that is depressing wages. So you implicitly acknowledge that wages in some sectors are lower, so thus other people in work in that sector are worse off.
I am still trying to get my head around the implications of a sub 30 Lib Dem party. You have to go back to 1992 to see that.
One obvious implication that seems to me to be understated on here is that the window for a hung Parliament will be smaller than it has been for 23 years, a lot smaller. It is not quite old style 2 party politics but it is closer than we have seen for a long time.
IMO the odds on a hung Parliament reflect the fact that the majority are not over-enthused by either offering and think they both deserve to lose. But this poll and the Lib Dem meltdown it indicates reminds us that there is probably going to be a winner. My guess at the moment is that both the major parties will pick up a good dozen Lib Dem seats each with the Lib Dems losing a couple more to the SNP in Scotland.
Something for the memory locker, a pic of UKIP's sole Scottish elected representative in a kilt. He appears to have gone for the maxi look, the opposite to Jack McConnell's mini kilt. No danger of a glimpse of knees, or worse, thank God.
On current trends the 2014 figure will exceed the previous post-recession high in 2011, but will still be well down on the peaks in 2000 or 2007.
If we look at the monthly figures, then some selected highs and lows in the Index are:
Date | Index of Manufacturing --------------------------------------------------- Jun 1974 | 98.5 Aug 1975 | 85.6 Jun 1979 | 96.2 May 1981 | 77.5 May 1990 | 103.1 May 1992 | 95.3 May 1997 | 106.0 Nov 2000 | 111.5 Jan 2008 | 111.0 Aug 2009 | 95.3 May 2010 | 99.4 Jun 2011 | 102.6 Jan 2013 | 97.8 Apr 2014 | 103.0
Thus the recession of 2008-9 reduced the size of UK manufacturing to its minimum of the recession in the early 90s, and the recent growth has taken us back to the pre early 90s recession high of May 1990 - about 24 years ago.
The peak-to-trough falls in manufacturing in various recessions were:
Trough year | % change manufacturing index from peak-to-trough ------------------------------------------ 1975 | -13.1% 1981 | -19.4% 1992 | -7.6% 2009 | -14.1%
Total manufacturing growth (1979-1997) was about +10.2%, or +0.5% per year.
Total manufacturing growth (1997-2010) was about -6.2%, or -0.5% per year.
Osborne's record to date (2010-2014) is +3.6%, or +0.9% per year.
Lord Ashcroft deserves yet another gong for Services to Political Betting.
As Pulpstar points out, it would have been nice if he'd looked further down the list of LibDem defences, such as Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green.
If the noble lord is correct and up to half of LibDem seats could be at risk, then we might need to consider whether the odds on a Hung Parliament are too short. [Edit: I see DavidL has made the same point]
A strange choice of seats for Lord Ashcrofts poll . only 4 seats and no Cambridge , Leeds NW or Hornsey/Wood Green . Very puzzling weightings also . In all 4 seats the voters polled said that Labour had won these 4 seats in 2010 and even after weighting adjustments Labour won 3 out of the 4 in 2010 .
So would the ECHR have done that if the lawmaker was the UK?
I haven't seen the judgement, so can't say for certain. However, as the UK unlike France, is not officially a secular State, I imagine that a ban in this country would not be upheld.
Surely the UK is a secular state? It does contain one constituent nation which is a Church-State fusion (England), but the other nations had their Established churches disestablished long ago. Or am I missing something of practical importance?
The head of state is the head of a religion, and daily worship is mandated in schools.
Something for the memory locker, a pic of UKIP's sole Scottish elected representative in a kilt. He appears to have gone for the maxi look, the opposite to Jack McConnell's mini kilt. No danger of a glimpse of knees, or worse, thank God.
Toynbee on the Tories getting back in is like Richard Nabavi on Labour getting elected ...
Winter will come and never depart, fell beasts will ravage the Northlands, from the western seas serpents will emerge, in the east dragons will spit vicious flames, southern rivers will run dry. Ravens will carry off the new born, the crops will fail. There will be no more joy as demons deploy across the frozen countryside and the cities fall foul of plague. Darkness will envelope the land, all goodness will die.
If Ed Miliband would only restrict himself to those horrors, we could live with that. But he has other ambitions....
The French are paying for their sins of the last 20 years, not just the last three. The country's politicians have utterly failed to lead the country's voters towards any kind of realistic appraisal of the inter-connected world in which we and they live. Even now, they vote for the FN, which aside from its nasty foreigner-bashing promises that all the old benefits and perks can be protected and the globalising economy kept out. I don't go to France for work that much, but when I do the frustration felt by people running forward thinking, successful businesses is intense. There seem to be a fair few of them, but the trouble is that their France is the smaller of the two that exist. What the other, bigger France needs more than anything else is a change of attitude. What are the chances of that?
Toynbee on the Tories getting back in is like Richard Nabavi on Labour getting elected ...
Winter will come and never depart, fell beasts will ravage the Northlands, from the western seas serpents will emerge, in the east dragons will spit vicious flames, southern rivers will run dry. Ravens will carry off the new born, the crops will fail. There will be no more joy as demons deploy across the frozen countryside and the cities fall foul of plague. Darkness will envelope the land, all goodness will die.
If Ed Miliband would only restrict himself to those horrors, we could live with that. But he has other ambitions....
Just think how many AGW targets could be met if winter never ended? Ed would be the star of the international bandwagon and never have to cry again.
Toynbee is getting ever more delusional in her rants:
So a vote for the Conservatives next year amounts to an Out vote. If Scotland narrowly stays in the UK this time, they will certainly demand another vote and swing to leave a non-EU England; Wales might follow. Britain loses its UN security council seat and US presidents forget "special relationship" politesse.
I also like that she's appalled the Times fact checked the three million jobs at risk bollocks. How dare they demolish an untrue pro-EU claim??
Toynbee on the Tories getting back in is like Richard Nabavi on Labour getting elected ...
Winter will come and never depart, fell beasts will ravage the Northlands, from the western seas serpents will emerge, in the east dragons will spit vicious flames, southern rivers will run dry. Ravens will carry off the new born, the crops will fail. There will be no more joy as demons deploy across the frozen countryside and the cities fall foul of plague. Darkness will envelope the land, all goodness will die.
And that's just Ed Miliband... wait til he gets on to Balls...
Toynbee is getting ever more delusional in her rants:
So a vote for the Conservatives next year amounts to an Out vote. If Scotland narrowly stays in the UK this time, they will certainly demand another vote and swing to leave a non-EU England; Wales might follow. Britain loses its UN security council seat and US presidents forget "special relationship" politesse.
I also like that she's appalled the Times fact checked the three million jobs at risk bollocks. How dare they demolish an untrue pro-EU claim??
Toynbee on the Tories getting back in is like Richard Nabavi on Labour getting elected ...
Winter will come and never depart, fell beasts will ravage the Northlands, from the western seas serpents will emerge, in the east dragons will spit vicious flames, southern rivers will run dry. Ravens will carry off the new born, the crops will fail. There will be no more joy as demons deploy across the frozen countryside and the cities fall foul of plague. Darkness will envelope the land, all goodness will die.
When the truth is it will probably be no different to what we have now, or had between 97-10
A strange choice of seats for Lord Ashcrofts poll . only 4 seats and no Cambridge , Leeds NW or Hornsey/Wood Green . Very puzzling weightings also . In all 4 seats the voters polled said that Labour had won these 4 seats in 2010 and even after weighting adjustments Labour won 3 out of the 4 in 2010 .
Well, you'd expect some false recall, given the circumstances. And I'd imagine the electorates in these seats are relatively transient, so you'll have had some churn too. But I agree it's a pity that Ashcroft did'nt look at some closer contests.
Something for the memory locker, a pic of UKIP's sole Scottish elected representative in a kilt. He appears to have gone for the maxi look, the opposite to Jack McConnell's mini kilt. No danger of a glimpse of knees, or worse, thank God.
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Something for the memory locker, a pic of UKIP's sole Scottish elected representative in a kilt. He appears to have gone for the maxi look, the opposite to Jack McConnell's mini kilt. No danger of a glimpse of knees, or worse, thank God.
The French are paying for their sins of the last 20 years, not just the last three. The country's politicians have utterly failed to lead the country's voters towards any kind of realistic appraisal of the inter-connected world in which we and they live. Even now, they vote for the FN, which aside from its nasty foreigner-bashing promises that all the old benefits and perks can be protected and the globalising economy kept out. I don't go to France for work that much, but when I do the frustration felt by people running forward thinking, successful businesses is intense. There seem to be a fair few of them, but the trouble is that their France is the smaller of the two that exist. What the other, bigger France needs more than anything else is a change of attitude. What are the chances of that?
I agree with all of that.
Sadly, I think the answer to your last question is: Very low, for now at least. I don't see any sign of a change of attitude, if anything the reverse. It reminds me of the fatalism of pre-Maggie Britain: you'll find plenty of people in France who understand what is wrong, but little appetite to do anything about it, or faith that anything can be done about it.
Part of the reason for this is that, for many, it's all very comfortable and cosy, thank you very much. A combination of the unreformed labour market and state largesse mean that the French vested interests are particularly vested. That means the burden is falling disproportionately on those who don't have an established job in a big company or in the state sector, or a state pension. In practice that means particularly the burden falls on the young.
It is genuinely difficult to look at the comparative performance of the UK economy without pinching oneself. Just how long can this go on?
I think it needs to continue for at least the next year to make good the ground we have lost since 2010, and for the entire length of the next Parliament to begin to reverse the long-term decline suffered in the preceding decade.
It could be worse, I'll grant you.
Did you mean 2008 or 2010?
I meant 2010. Relative strength in the service sector of the UK economy obscures a couple of terrible years for manufacturing since 2010.
However, a quick check of the ONS figures shows that I was perhaps being too pessimistic on that. Manufacturing is now 3% larger than in 2010, though that's a long way behind Services, which has grown by 7.4% in the same time.
I would have thought it was poor manufacturing years from about 2005 or 2006
UK Manufacturing has struggled since 2000, when the Index peaked at 110.3 for the year (2010 = 100). The annual values from 2005 are:
On current trends the 2014 figure will exceed the previous post-recession high in 2011, but will still be well down on the peaks in 2000 or 2007.
Yes but is this the whole picture? Is this index nrelated to GDP. Certainly as a %age of GDP manufacturing has fallen, but what about in absolute terms?
The index should be self-consistent with itself, so 100 in 2010 would indicate the same level of manufacturing activity as 100 in the 1990s.
Note however that this is manufacturing alone, and does not include other components of the wider index of production, eg mining, quarrying and oil and gas, or electricity and steam generation, which might well have been included in the figures for industrial growth since 1970 that you quote.
So would the ECHR have done that if the lawmaker was the UK?
I haven't seen the judgement, so can't say for certain. However, as the UK unlike France, is not officially a secular State, I imagine that a ban in this country would not be upheld.
Surely the UK is a secular state? It does contain one constituent nation which is a Church-State fusion (England), but the other nations had their Established churches disestablished long ago. Or am I missing something of practical importance?
The head of state is the head of a religion, and daily worship is mandated in schools.
Well, well, one learns something every day, thank you. I never realised that England and Wales required daily worship, and a little checking suggests that this has by law to be specifically if broadly Christian (and that this applies to State schools, too, not independents).
In Scotland the guideline seems to be 6 times a year but more often if possible, perhaps even weekly. (Obviously unlikely to be the case for RC schools. Not sure about NI.)
The French are paying for their sins of the last 20 years, not just the last three. The country's politicians have utterly failed to lead the country's voters towards any kind of realistic appraisal of the inter-connected world in which we and they live. Even now, they vote for the FN, which aside from its nasty foreigner-bashing promises that all the old benefits and perks can be protected and the globalising economy kept out. I don't go to France for work that much, but when I do the frustration felt by people running forward thinking, successful businesses is intense. There seem to be a fair few of them, but the trouble is that their France is the smaller of the two that exist. What the other, bigger France needs more than anything else is a change of attitude. What are the chances of that?
Thinking on your comments above and your post about the hysterical predictions of the effect of a Labour government being elected next year, I reminded that Ed "I am a socialist" Miliband warmly welcomed Hollande's election and Hollande's policies that would lead to pain free growth and prosperity for all French people.
It does look like l'exception Française has finally run into the brick wall of economical reality. The food has really gone down hill too, even my French neighbours say that they eat better in pubs and restaurants over here than in their native land.
Re ScotRef. 'Yes' by definition will vote, however, 'No' we should not be an independent country - committed to that, or just don't care? There's your squeeze.
Woolie you are among the few sane voices on here that make me persevere on the site despite the tone of the place in general.
To be fair Malcolm, sane is not a term often associated with me! But it's all good, political banter and fist fighting should be fun first, and profitable second
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
You would expect that the Lib Dem incumbency bonus will be a lot weaker where Labour are challenging for the seat than when the Tories are, because of tactical voting considerations.
However, it still amuses that his Lordship's poll puts the Lib Dems in 5th place in Norwich South.
Is it worth their while seriously contesting that seat? Would they be better off putting more effort into seats like Cambridge and Norfolk North and abandoning some of the seats they hold?
Mr. Carnyx, I always disliked religious assemblies. I'm an atheist, always have been, and don't mind the existence of such assemblies for believers, but it was and is ridiculous that an atheist has to go along to a Christian assembly.
Thinking on your comments above and your post about the hysterical predictions of the effect of a Labour government being elected next year, I reminded that Ed "I am a socialist" Miliband warmly welcomed Hollande's election and Hollande's policies that would lead to pain free growth and prosperity for all French people.
Quite so. Voters have a choice of direction; in France they decided to vote for someone who has actively made things worse (not that the last lot were great, to be fair). In 2015, voters here will have an opportunity to throw out the government that has made things better in the UK and bring back a party which seems determined to reverse the progress. We shall see which they choose.
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb, Norman Lamb Cheese and ham, cheese and ham, cheese and ham
A 50% fall in his vote would make North Norfolk an easy Con gain. 5% swing back would see him hobble over the line. Like someone said earlier. Has Lamb got more stick ability than the rest? DYOR
Given Labour must be at least Evens at value for most seats and the shellacking they will give the Lib Dems (Not much chance of Uncle Vince as Chancellor I think...) I reckon there is some value still in that price.
I can't see the likes of Pork giving anyone from south of the border the type of welcome you're suggesting. Malcolm will be busy in his minicab, over charging visitors desperate to get back to the airport and civilisation.
The mental picture I have of malcolmg is more a sort of Scotch version of Blakey out of On The Buses, only without the good cheer.
The staggering thing is that a fall from 38% to 19% is actually better than the Lib Dems are doing overall. That is about a 50% fall in their vote whilst their national polling is down by something closer to 2/3. If this is the extent of the incumbency benefit that Lib Dems can expect they are in serious trouble.
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
Even with Q2 giving them an extra 5% on average I say that almost all LD seats which Labour is was in second place in 2010 will fall to Labour in 2015. LD on track for the 20-30 range in seats.
Comments
Those using the burnt bread analogies on here are, in my view, far too sanguine. They underestimate the power being in charge of the Scottish government gives the SNP, the level of hostility that the prospect of a Tory government might create amongst the key swing voters and the level of disarray in SLAB. As a committed Unionist there is plenty to worry about yet and there will be until September.
I also agree with your comment on the economy. The rebalancing of the UK economy is not a sprint but a marathon. I have serious doubts about whether we can grow our way out of our troubles but it will certainly make the adjustments required in public spending less painful than they might have been in other scenarios.
Everyone will, if the organisation is as good as it should be, be full of togetherness.
Not exactly the best environment for a leaving the Union message.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28106900
So would the ECHR have done that if the lawmaker was the UK?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/01/nicolas-sarkozy-detained-questioning-alleged-corruption
Gaddafi is taking revenge from beyond the grave.
However, a quick check of the ONS figures shows that I was perhaps being too pessimistic on that. Manufacturing is now 3% larger than in 2010, though that's a long way behind Services, which has grown by 7.4% in the same time.
JACKW's alter ego posting as himself. Two cheeks of the same ARSE.
I expect the Commonwealth Games to create in Scotland a similar love, happiness, you-are-my-brother-even-though-you-live-in-Surrey, leave-the-Union-you-must-be-mad kind of atmosphere.
I must admit a quick scan of France's arguments was not very compelling.
For once the BBC has got very quickly onto this so I await the judgment or any full account. [I'm just translating the French at the moment.]
I'm enjoying the vision of a Surrey bro seeking love & happiness in Dalmarnock though.
IIRC - He lives in JohnO's neck of the woods.
(I know he's not competing in the Commonwealth Games, I think)
What is really encouraging at the moment is that there seems to be a surge in investment in manufacturing which gives hope for the future.
Normally they compare their polls to the last poll by that pollster.
But in this instance, they've compared it to their last poll in March.
That said, the supplementaries and the trend therein don't make great reading for Yes.
It's a subconscious thing, innit; trust me if it were up to me I would cut Surrey off in a heartbeat.
My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – though as we saw in my polling of Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, swings are very far from uniform where the Lib Dems are concerned.
It is also important to emphasise again that like all polls, this is a snapshot not a forecast. Taken together, though, my two latest battleground surveys suggest up to half of all Lib Dem MPs could be at risk next May.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/07/liberal-democrat-labour-battleground/
My research in Bradford East, Brent Central, Manchester Withington and Norwich South found the Lib Dem share down from 38% to 19%, with Labour up 11 points to 47%. This amounts to a swing of 15%, enough in theory for Labour to gain 17 current Lib Dem seats if repeated across the board at an election – though as we saw in my polling of Conservative-Lib Dem marginals, swings are very far from uniform where the Lib Dems are concerned.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/07/liberal-democrat-labour-battleground/
I seem to remember on here that Olympic togetherness consisted of crowing over stuffing the French & Aussies in the medal table. Perhaps I misremember..
Last time I topped up, it was 1/10 for Lab to take the seat.
A 10% return in less than 10 months is a very good deal.
We can not accept that the general prohibition imposed by the law of 11 October 2010 is necessary in a democratic society or for public security or public safety, for the purposes of Articles 8 and 9 of the Convention... [However,] particularly with regard to the magnitude of the margin of appreciation available to the defendant State in this case, the Court concludes that the ban posed the law of 11 October 2010 can be regarded as proportionate to the aim pursued, namely the preservation conditions of "living together" [translation?] as part of the "protection of the rights and freedoms of others".
723 MEPs voted
111 spoilt or unexpressed ballots
Martin Schultz (S&D) 409 votes
Sajjad Karim (ECR) 101
Ulricke Lunacek (Greens) 51
Pablo Iglesias (EUL-NGL) 51
New Poll, or fallout?
Plus - the battle of Brighton Pavilion: LAB 33% (+4), GRN 32% (+1), CON 18% (-6), UKIP 9% (+7), LDEM 5% (-9)
I have read that real industrial output increased over 40% between 1970 and 2000.
I Ialso read that we are the 6th largest manufacturer by volume in the world. No doubt as the rest of the world grows that proportion will decline but our manufacturing will or could still grow in absolute terms.
Paddy have 1/8 in Bradford East (48% v 14%), and 2/9!!! in Brent Central (54% v 19%)
That's me off to my local paddy power shop.
http://tinyurl.com/lx6y5uj
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/the-northerner/2012/aug/13/yorkshire-olympic-medals-gold-tourism-leeds-york-dales-sheffield-hull
Winter will come and never depart, fell beasts will ravage the Northlands, from the western seas serpents will emerge, in the east dragons will spit vicious flames, southern rivers will run dry. Ravens will carry off the new born, the crops will fail. There will be no more joy as demons deploy across the frozen countryside and the cities fall foul of plague. Darkness will envelope the land, all goodness will die.
Two small countries, with chips on their shoulders about England.
Edward Longshanks really did wind up the Scots with his brilliance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auld_Alliance
What's interesting is that the UK economy seems to be growing at an annualised rate of around 3.5%, but we also seem to have endless "spare capacity", there doesn't seem to be a hard limit on our economic capacity at the moment. Monetary easing, combined with low inflation, liberal labour laws and corporate cash hordes being invested has taken the roof off our "trend growth". Where ~2.5% growth was our trend before the recession under Labour, I could see a scenario where we return to a higher growth capacity from now on with our trend moving up to around 3.5%. Having a flexible labour market is really the most important factor in all of this, and the move by St Vince to remove exclusivity from zero hour contracts is welcome so that economic efficiency can be maximised and output per worker will begin to rise for part time employees.
The part that the government need to get to grips with is that with 3.5% growth and 1.5% spending growth, the deficit only closes by around £12bn per year without any cuts. It would take 6 full years to balance the budget without spending cuts. The need to cut spending is as paramount today as it was in 2010. The public seem to think the worst is over, but with above trend growth we need 6 years to eliminate the deficit and balance the budget. If a recession were to hit in that time the country would be left without any recourse but to take an axe to middle class welfare and welfare for working people. The Tories need to set the tone of this debate before they find themselves having to propose something slightly less onerous than Labour on wealth taxes because Joe Public wants to try and make the rich pay. Something which does not work.
The great tradgedy is the numbers of unemployable Brits parked on benefits. Its a shocking legacy left by Labour.
Secondly, it's not at all "a fact" that all of us in work benefit from immigrant labour. Your own post admitted it kept inflation down, and the mechanism for doing that is depressing wages. So you implicitly acknowledge that wages in some sectors are lower, so thus other people in work in that sector are worse off.
One obvious implication that seems to me to be understated on here is that the window for a hung Parliament will be smaller than it has been for 23 years, a lot smaller. It is not quite old style 2 party politics but it is closer than we have seen for a long time.
IMO the odds on a hung Parliament reflect the fact that the majority are not over-enthused by either offering and think they both deserve to lose. But this poll and the Lib Dem meltdown it indicates reminds us that there is probably going to be a winner. My guess at the moment is that both the major parties will pick up a good dozen Lib Dem seats each with the Lib Dems losing a couple more to the SNP in Scotland.
The peak-to-trough falls in manufacturing in various recessions were:Total manufacturing growth (1979-1997) was about +10.2%, or +0.5% per year.
Total manufacturing growth (1997-2010) was about -6.2%, or -0.5% per year.
Osborne's record to date (2010-2014) is +3.6%, or +0.9% per year.
Interesting figures.
As Pulpstar points out, it would have been nice if he'd looked further down the list of LibDem defences, such as Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green.
If the noble lord is correct and up to half of LibDem seats could be at risk, then we might need to consider whether the odds on a Hung Parliament are too short. [Edit: I see DavidL has made the same point]
If you want a vision of the future, imagine a Scottish boot filled with English money - forever.
The French are paying for their sins of the last 20 years, not just the last three. The country's politicians have utterly failed to lead the country's voters towards any kind of realistic appraisal of the inter-connected world in which we and they live. Even now, they vote for the FN, which aside from its nasty foreigner-bashing promises that all the old benefits and perks can be protected and the globalising economy kept out. I don't go to France for work that much, but when I do the frustration felt by people running forward thinking, successful businesses is intense. There seem to be a fair few of them, but the trouble is that their France is the smaller of the two that exist. What the other, bigger France needs more than anything else is a change of attitude. What are the chances of that?
Just think how many AGW targets could be met if winter never ended? Ed would be the star of the international bandwagon and never have to cry again.
;-)
A little late, but it would be remiss of me not to extend a hearty congratulations on this achievement.
It may not mean anything to them, but you should always be respectful of other people's beliefs
Surely they are going to claw back some of this?
I'm guessing that shortly after the ceremony, they collectively trousered any allowances on offer, and legged it.
Sadly, I think the answer to your last question is: Very low, for now at least. I don't see any sign of a change of attitude, if anything the reverse. It reminds me of the fatalism of pre-Maggie Britain: you'll find plenty of people in France who understand what is wrong, but little appetite to do anything about it, or faith that anything can be done about it.
Part of the reason for this is that, for many, it's all very comfortable and cosy, thank you very much. A combination of the unreformed labour market and state largesse mean that the French vested interests are particularly vested. That means the burden is falling disproportionately on those who don't have an established job in a big company or in the state sector, or a state pension. In practice that means particularly the burden falls on the young.
Someone somewhere has made a mistake.
Note however that this is manufacturing alone, and does not include other components of the wider index of production, eg mining, quarrying and oil and gas, or electricity and steam generation, which might well have been included in the figures for industrial growth since 1970 that you quote.
In Scotland the guideline seems to be 6 times a year but more often if possible, perhaps even weekly. (Obviously unlikely to be the case for RC schools. Not sure about NI.)
It does look like l'exception Française has finally run into the brick wall of economical reality. The food has really gone down hill too, even my French neighbours say that they eat better in pubs and restaurants over here than in their native land.
But it's all good, political banter and fist fighting should be fun first, and profitable second
However, it still amuses that his Lordship's poll puts the Lib Dems in 5th place in Norwich South.
Is it worth their while seriously contesting that seat? Would they be better off putting more effort into seats like Cambridge and Norfolk North and abandoning some of the seats they hold?
They must hold a by-election by mid August
Cheese and ham, cheese and ham, cheese and ham
A 50% fall in his vote would make North Norfolk an easy Con gain.
5% swing back would see him hobble over the line. Like someone said earlier.
Has Lamb got more stick ability than the rest?
DYOR
Given Labour must be at least Evens at value for most seats and the shellacking they will give the Lib Dems (Not much chance of Uncle Vince as Chancellor I think...) I reckon there is some value still in that price.
Much better than the 4-5 Ed Miliband next PM.
He'd look like a sort of judas-haired version of this:
http://www.bitterwallet.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/blakey.jpeg
LD on track for the 20-30 range in seats.