Rather than attempt to shoot the Ukip fox,which has proven to be a failed strategy,it seems to me Cameron has decided to go into the fox's lair,Eurosceptic Britain, and pretend to be a fox,just like them.Can't see that working either.
Just read with surprise that Juncker is only 59 - from his photos I'd guessed mid to late sixties......as a friend once observed of a horse "ridden hard and put up wet"......
He has been continually at the top end of politics (in Luxembourg, admittedly), for a quarter of a century, which has to take its toll. He became Finance Minister before the Berlin Wall fell and then on Jacques Santer being appointed EU Commission President (in a nice symmetry, as a compromise candidate accepted by John Major when he vetoed Jean-Luc Dehaene), served as Luxembourg PM for nearly 19 years. All those official dinners have got to take a toll.
Luxembourg has a population of only 550,000.
It is about as strenuous as being Mayor of Bradford!
I read that their legislators are part-time!
I wish ours were, we would probably all be better off and better governed.
Malcolm G..you would not recognise Political courage even if it slapped you in the face..You weakly snipe away from the sidelines in a craven manner..not having the courage to use your own name..how very brave
@HurstLlama They might not win, but at least some will have spoken up, instead off doffing their caps and accepting that they should get poorer while the bankers and bosses get exponentially richer. Sometimes a little pride is better than money.
Europe declares war on the UK. We all know who wins this shit.
What scares me slighly is the utter uniformity from the other countries apart from the UK and Hungary. You'd think there'd be a slightly wider range of opinion from so many nations.
Very telling indeed. It shows how highly the UK is thought of by Europe.
No in this case you're wrong. It shows that the vast majority of EU leaders are thinking about their pockets; and these pockets are deep indeed. Not that they care a hoot about the UK of course, except when they cry to Britain to defend them.
I agree but the UK negotiating etc is pathetic. Cameron manages to upset everyone, Davy no pals. Been a long time since anybody needed defending and we tend to do that when it suits our own ends only as well.
Don't worry, rollover Salmond will give it all away for you :-)
Hello Alan, Unlike Cammo , Alex does have a pair
chortle
he'll cave in at the first negotiation in his desire to get a pat on the head from Mr Juncker
#bhaji-eating-surrender-monkey
The SNP have already "adopted the position":
SNP MEP Alyn Smith told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland: “From an SNP perspective we can do business with him.
You do not see them spreading scurrilous rumours about Cameron , that is a UK Westminster trick.
British spies 'may have sent online abuse to JK Rowling', SNP politician warns Christina McKelvie MSP says 'secret service plants' could be behind trolling of Harry Potter author after she spoke out against independence
McKelvie has a point. MalcolmG, for example, is clearly a Unionist agent.
Given there's been mention of Blackburn on the thread...
We announced details today of the our Fourth Winter Exhibition.
In conjunction with the Blackburn Museum, Haworth Art Gallery (Hyndburn) and Towneley Hall (Burnley) it's going to be an exhibition telling the story of the collector-philanthropists of the industrial Northwest.
Exhibits include the best collection of Roman coins outside the British Museum, medieval manuscripts, Turner watercolours, Tiffany glass, Byzantium icons, taxidermied beetles and, I have been promised, one of the oldest mummies outside Egypt...
So anyone with an interest in Blackburn, Hyndburn or, dare I say, Burnley is very welcome to Two Temple Place to see these exhibitions that are usually open for only part of the week in the local museums. It'll be open to the public from 31st January through 19th April next year, and I'd be delighted to show anyone interested around the house if we can make diaries work ;-)
Just read with surprise that Juncker is only 59 - from his photos I'd guessed mid to late sixties......as a friend once observed of a horse "ridden hard and put up wet"......
He has been continually at the top end of politics (in Luxembourg, admittedly), for a quarter of a century, which has to take its toll. He became Finance Minister before the Berlin Wall fell and then on Jacques Santer being appointed EU Commission President (in a nice symmetry, as a compromise candidate accepted by John Major when he vetoed Jean-Luc Dehaene), served as Luxembourg PM for nearly 19 years. All those official dinners have got to take a toll.
Luxembourg has a population of only 550,000.
It is about as strenuous as being Mayor of Bradford!
I've seen what being leader of the Bradford Council can do to someone over five years, never mind nineteen!
@HurstLlama They might not win, but at least some will have spoken up, instead off doffing their caps and accepting that they should get poorer while the bankers and bosses get exponentially richer. Sometimes a little pride is better than money.
I think it a shame that they couldn't think of some way of making their feelings known without actually taking money from people who can't really afford it. The idea that to protest about not having enough cash you give up 20% of a week's wages seems perverse. Pride is nice but you can't feed it to your kids.
It's a difficult one and really there is no answer just trade offs.
I recently worked for two jewish guys who increasingly did all their work with other jewish companies. Was that discrimination or people who felt more comfortable with their own community ?
Likewise in schools how do you prevent discrimination ?
Depending on how you cut the cake you'll always be "discriminating" against someone - race, religion, class, ability the choice is endless.
I thought Paxman's comments today were apt
"It's perfectly normal when you're young that you want to change the world.
"The older you get, the more you realise what a fools' errand much of that is and that the thing to do is to manage the best you can to the advantage of as many people as possible."
Thanks for that. Appreciated. As for your Jewish friends; Coincidence? I knew freemasons who tended to work for and with other freemasons "because they knew them"
In schools ....... believe me, children, especially young children don't discriminate. As I said, I've got mixed race grandchildren at a mixed race school with all sorts of friends ..... the parents socials are quite something ..., and white grandchildren at schools which are almost exclusively white who don't seem to realise that their "darker friends" are mixed race.
As their grandfather, I don't give a FF.
I honestly don't think, at 70+ that I've ever deliberately discriminated against anyone on race or colour or religious grounds. There are some people I like and some people I don't. End of. White, black, yellow, whatever. Christian, Jewish, Moslem, Buddhist, whatever.
Quite right too. There are good and bad and really evil in all sections of society, of whatever religion, of whatever colour.
Do the BOO Tories want Juncker as President or not? Although he stands for everything they apparently dislike about the EU, doesn't having him as EU Prez make a better case for exit? I'm really struggling to get the Tory politics on this one. Is it another case of the British admiring a good loser? Are there no Tories who wanted Juncker stopped but thinking Cameron went about it in completely the wrong way?
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
There's obviously better quality weed being grown in your neck of the woods nowadays!
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
"Then they are fecking stupid to make their financial situation even worse. "
They are stupid, and Cameron is a hero for doing the same?
I didn't know Cameron was going on strike. Look these people believe they have a genuine grievance and want to make a point. Could not they come up with a method whereby they can publicise their case which doesn't involve them taking what will be for some a very big financial hit? How about getting the two million on the streets of London on a Saturday (the GMB could lay on trains/coaches etc)? That would make a pretty big splash and none of the poorly paid would be out of pocket. There must be a better way.
Strikes hurt strikers. There must be a better way.
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
There's obviously better quality weed being grown in your neck of the woods nowadays!
That is my cue for a re-run of the devil went down to Jamaica
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
I'm drinking a nice red at the moment, what flavour koolaid are you sipping?
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
UKIP won't lose enough deposits to make this vote distribution possible.
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
Another UKIP broken promise .... and a forecast out by about 29 million.
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
There's obviously better quality weed being grown in your neck of the woods nowadays!
That is my cue for a re-run of the devil went down to Jamaica
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
UKIP won't lose enough deposits to make this vote distribution possible.
I hope this prediction of Mike K's is true I am about to unload on Ladbrokes 1/50 "UKIP to get less than 50 seats" on the back of it
Give credit where credits due,well done Cameron today,we all knew he was going to lose the vote and the backlash from his political opponents.
I would rather have a PM fighting his corner for this country and sticking by his principles like today than PM milliband who we all know would have voted in favour for Juncker,cameron could have easily followed the line.
@HurstLlama Cameron could have used a different tactic, and so could the protesters (note that it is a day of protest, the strikes are purely co-incidental) Spending a Saturday getting filmed by the police, and being kettled in some out of the way park might suit you. unfortunately, like the taxi drivers recently, they want to make a loud point. Anyway, on the bright side? Boris can ride around in one of his fancy secondhand water cannon? Must be a win for the blue team?
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
UKIP won't lose enough deposits to make this vote distribution possible.
I hope this prediction of Mike K's is true I am about to unload on Ladbrokes 1/50 "UKIP to get less than 50 seats" on the back of it
I don't think you needed MikeK's prediction to guess ukip would get anywhere between 0-50.
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
UKIP won't lose enough deposits to make this vote distribution possible.
I hope this prediction of Mike K's is true I am about to unload on Ladbrokes 1/50 "UKIP to get less than 50 seats" on the back of it
If you want to take Ladbrokes credit risk (which is basically the only risk you are taking), you can by their 5.125% retail bond due 2022. That will give you about a 4.99% yield in the course of the year vs the 2% yield that you'd get from this bet.
If you sell out in September, you should be able to avoid the impact of the interest rate rise in Q4 on the capital value and still make a 2.5% yield pre-tax, but you only tie your money up for 3 months vs. 10
Of course this is not financial advice, DYOR, etc etc.
(* It's not one I'd invest in personally, because the yields dull to boring & I'm still long Wm Hill's equity)
@HurstLlama Cameron could have used a different tactic, and so could the protesters (note that it is a day of protest, the strikes are purely co-incidental) Spending a Saturday getting filmed by the police, and being kettled in some out of the way park might suit you. unfortunately, like the taxi drivers recently, they want to make a loud point. Anyway, on the bright side? Boris can ride around in one of his fancy secondhand water cannon? Must be a win for the blue team?
Might suit me? What have I got to do with it. My life will not be interrupted one iota if the strike goes ahead or if it doesn't. My concern is purely for the poor buggers who are going to take a financial hit for no benefit to them. As I said I think it a great shame that nobody can think of a better way.
However, you seem to feel that the politics of the strike is what matters not the effect it will have on the PBI of the class war. So we are not gong to get far with this discussion. Shall we let it go and remain friends?
Honest debate should not be a bar to friendship, though I did point out that it was a day of protest against austerity, any strikes planned for the same day are entirely a matter for individual unions.
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
If there's a Fisher prediction crossover which sticks it will be a surprisingly significant moment in my mind. I'm not a fan of the model, but if even it is showing Lab largest party that might indicate the swingback is significantly falling short of historical standards.
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
If there's a Fisher prediction crossover which sticks it will be a surprisingly significant moment in my mind. I'm not a fan of the model, but if even it is showing Lab largest party that might indicate the swingback is significantly falling short of historical standards.
What is the period over which swingback is supposed to operate?
My concern is purely for the poor buggers who are going to take a financial hit for no benefit to them. As I said I think it a great shame that nobody can think of a better way.
I always used to like reading about the creative zeal that went into work-to-rule protests - dutifully studying the safety regulations and practising artificial respiration as regulation 47 stated they should do once a year, making sure that the lights were optimally located, sorting all papers into precisely labelled files, testing every machine three times, and so on. The nice thing about it was that it only worked because management had thought up a bunch of stupid rules to cover themselves which they never expected anyone to follow, and of course they couldn't withhold pay from people merely going by the regulations. They seem to have died out - perhaps managers finally got wise and disposed of the inessential rules.
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
If there's a Fisher prediction crossover which sticks it will be a surprisingly significant moment in my mind. I'm not a fan of the model, but if even it is showing Lab largest party that might indicate the swingback is significantly falling short of historical standards.
Swingback just is not happening yet and the clock is ticking. The model is reflecting this. However this EU thing turns out it is hard to see it giving the tories the boost and there is a clear risk that paradise is further postponed.
This year my priority is staying in the UK. If this needs the tories to go nowhere until 19th September I will be quite content with that.
My concern is purely for the poor buggers who are going to take a financial hit for no benefit to them. As I said I think it a great shame that nobody can think of a better way.
I always used to like reading about the creative zeal that went into work-to-rule protests - dutifully studying the safety regulations and practising artificial respiration as regulation 47 stated they should do once a year, making sure that the lights were optimally located, sorting all papers into precisely labelled files, testing every machine three times, and so on. The nice thing about it was that it only worked because management had thought up a bunch of stupid rules to cover themselves which they never expected anyone to follow, and of course they couldn't withhold pay from people merely going by the regulations. They seem to have died out - perhaps managers finally got wise and disposed of the inessential rules.
It's ok there's a limitless supply of inessential rules from Govt.
oh, and @MikeK - respect dude keep at it; we need people like you.
At some point we will have a discussion about why I think your tremendous energies would best be directed in support of the Cons but that is for a different day.
My concern is purely for the poor buggers who are going to take a financial hit for no benefit to them. As I said I think it a great shame that nobody can think of a better way.
I always used to like reading about the creative zeal that went into work-to-rule protests - dutifully studying the safety regulations and practising artificial respiration as regulation 47 stated they should do once a year, making sure that the lights were optimally located, sorting all papers into precisely labelled files, testing every machine three times, and so on. The nice thing about it was that it only worked because management had thought up a bunch of stupid rules to cover themselves which they never expected anyone to follow, and of course they couldn't withhold pay from people merely going by the regulations. They seem to have died out - perhaps managers finally got wise and disposed of the inessential rules.
Culture change over the years, Nick. In the private sector workers and management seem to have come to a mutually agreeable modus vivendi and disputes, where they occur, are settled without the need for old-fashioned methods. In the public sector the "damn silly back-covering rules" are constantly complied with so working to rule as in the old days is now just normal practice.
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
That is very close to my own forecast. Just out by 33 !
I owe everyone an apology. Yesterday I promised that I would publish my famous bi-monthly forecast for UKIP seats won at the GE2015 at 09:15 GMT this morning. However, I can publish the forecast now:
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
That is very close to my own forecast. Just out by 33 !
My concern is purely for the poor buggers who are going to take a financial hit for no benefit to them. As I said I think it a great shame that nobody can think of a better way.
I always used to like reading about the creative zeal that went into work-to-rule protests - dutifully studying the safety regulations and practising artificial respiration as regulation 47 stated they should do once a year, making sure that the lights were optimally located, sorting all papers into precisely labelled files, testing every machine three times, and so on. The nice thing about it was that it only worked because management had thought up a bunch of stupid rules to cover themselves which they never expected anyone to follow, and of course they couldn't withhold pay from people merely going by the regulations. They seem to have died out - perhaps managers finally got wise and disposed of the inessential rules.
Culture change over the years, Nick. In the private sector workers and management seem to have come to a mutually agreeable modus vivendi and disputes, where they occur, are settled without the need for old-fashioned methods. In the public sector the "damn silly back-covering rules" are constantly complied with so working to rule as in the old days is now just normal practice.
Couldn't agree more. We have an entirely sensible collaborative relationship with our union ( Unite as it happens ). On the other hand I am currently engaged in an utterly meaningless fig leaf box ticking jobsworth Kafkaesque nonsense with a Govt agency for which I have a regard exactly equal to a dog and a lamp post. I shall return hopefully to this subject in a few weeks when it is resolved. It needs airing. Not a reflection on all the public sector sure ( tax office is notably good for instance).
Now come on, isam's a nice guy, don't snigger at the obvious flaw in his logic.
You don't have to form a government to "win" the Euros, its whop gets the biggest % of the vote /wins most seats... but you cant claim to have "won" a GE if you need help from a rival to form Govt.
So you are changing the definition to fit your point which is verboten. If you claim Farage won the Euros then you have to apply the same definition to all elections.
I was wrong anyway because Cameron won the 2009 Euros as Richard N has pointed out
But the point remains else I would say its 2-1 Cameron.. but he didn't win the 2010 GE
Who's the PM could have sworn it was Cameron.
Cleggs Deputy PM but he didn't come 2nd
Farage isn't in parliament because he got his arse handed to him at the election. What's your point?
I made the point that Farage had won a national election whilst Cameron hadn't, but I was wrong because Cameron won the 09 Euros
What is your definition of winning? Plurality/majority of votes/seats?
Well its obvious from the fact that I think Farage won the 2015 Euros but Cameron didn't win the 2010 GE isn't it?
Euros = Most Votes & Seats GE = winning a majority
Cameron is tactically stupid. Perhaps coming out of the EPP was not sensible given that they were likely to be the largest group and would choose the EU President. Instead Cameron found himself in a small group on the margins and was not present when EPP had meetings about their candidate for the Presidency. It is Mrs Merkel that calls the shots in Europe.
Oh the cheek of Miliband, blaming Cameron for losing the vote, at least he tried even if he only won over Hungary, Blair and Brown handed away out veto power leaving Cameron in this positions
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
I have lived a fairly quiet life but have bumped into some famous people along the way. This set me thinking on who had the most charisma. In time lines we have Princess Margaret, Jo Grimond, Professor WJM McKenzie, Sir Alec Douglas-Hume, David Steel, JK Galbraith, Edward Goldstucker, Keith Joseph, Vaclav Havel, Paddy Ashdown, Nick Clegg, and Simon Armitage. A somewhat biassed collection but there was one clear winner. Jo Grimond! He had it in spades.
Although the European Council today voted by a margin of about 90% for Juncker, ironically the European Parliament vote is likely to be closer, despite the argument that it was his mandate as leader of the largest party in the Parliament which meant he should get the job. Add together the Tories' ECR group (now the 3rd largest group in the parliament), UKIP's (EFD group), the Greens and Independents like Front National, all of whom are likely to vote against Juncker, you get to around 200-250 out of 700 MEPs, ie around a third of the Parliament opposing him, despite the Christian Democrat, Social Democrat and Liberal majority which will push him through
Cameron is tactically stupid. Perhaps coming out of the EPP was not sensible given that they were likely to be the largest group and would choose the EU President. Instead Cameron found himself in a small group on the margins and was not present when EPP had meetings about their candidate for the Presidency. It is Mrs Merkel that calls the shots in Europe.
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
Where did you get the figures for last week's prediction? I had a look at his website the other day but could only find his latest prediction. If you know where I can get a list of his previous predictions, that would be very helpful
Shade under 5k majority and aged 61 so no obvious reason that he had to go, just a chap deciding he has done his bit, and good luck to him.
Any Cumbria expert to give us run down on the likelihood of the seat changing hands?
No chance of it changing hands. Why do you think it might?
You misunderstand me, Mr JS. I don't have any views one way or another. That is why I was asking for an opinion of someone who knows the area. After all a 5k majority doesn't put it into the top class of safe seats, loss of incumbency effect, maybe some local issues as well could put in the possible change column. I don't know, so I asked.
Although the European Council today voted by a margin of about 90% for Juncker, ironically the European Parliament vote is likely to be closer, despite the argument that it was his mandate as leader of the largest party in the Parliament which meant he should get the job. Add together the Tories' ECR group (now the 3rd largest group in the parliament), UKIP's (EFD group), the Greens and Independents like Front National, all of whom are likely to vote against Juncker, you get to around 200-250 out of 700 MEPs, ie around a third of the Parliament opposing him, despite the Christian Democrat, Social Democrat and Liberal majority which will push him through
I believe the Green Left (Communists and allies) are supporting him on the "oh well, he won the election" basis, not sure about the other Green group.
Headlines: Cameron's crushing defeat. Reality: Endlessly boosted his pro-UK credentials amongst, um, UK voters.
You expect a poll boost, then? It's possible - he got lots of coverage on the news. But my guess is that we'll be back where we were in a week's time, Labour ahead by 3-4.
Although the European Council today voted by a margin of about 90% for Juncker, ironically the European Parliament vote is likely to be closer, despite the argument that it was his mandate as leader of the largest party in the Parliament which meant he should get the job. Add together the Tories' ECR group (now the 3rd largest group in the parliament), UKIP's (EFD group), the Greens and Independents like Front National, all of whom are likely to vote against Juncker, you get to around 200-250 out of 700 MEPs, ie around a third of the Parliament opposing him, despite the Christian Democrat, Social Democrat and Liberal majority which will push him through
I believe the Green Left (Communists and allies) are supporting him on the "oh well, he won the election" basis, not sure about the other Green group.
Headlines: Cameron's crushing defeat. Reality: Endlessly boosted his pro-UK credentials amongst, um, UK voters.
You expect a poll boost, then? It's possible - he got lots of coverage on the news. But my guess is that we'll be back where we were in a week's time, Labour ahead by 3-4.
I guess you are ignoring Populus because it doesn't fit your narrative.
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
The big change is that another week has gone by and the Tory polling position has edged back a touch. Stephen's model is very time sensitive because the closer we get to polling the more accurate it assumes that the polls will be.
Just when the Tories should be advancing towards crossover, Stephen Fisher's latest weekly projection of the 2015 GE result shows them moving sharply into reverse - a very, very disappointing result for the Blues .... I'm hoping without any great conviction that it's all down to the footy shambles. His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
The big change is that another week has gone by and the Tory polling position has edged back a touch. Stephen's model is very time sensitive because the closer we get to polling the more accurate it assumes that the polls will be.
Thankfully there are probably another 200 or so opinion polls between now and the election.
Sunil Cameron should also have ensured the ECR nominated a candidate for the presidency, as should UKIP and the EFD, instead we ended up with debates of mainly smug Europhiles and no eurosceptics present at all
Sunil Cameron should also have ensured the ECR nominated a candidate for the presidency, as should UKIP and the EFD, instead we ended up with debates of mainly smug Europhiles and no eurosceptics present at all
Secretly they know that a sum eurocrat does wonders for their message!
My concern is purely for the poor buggers who are going to take a financial hit for no benefit to them. As I said I think it a great shame that nobody can think of a better way.
I always used to like reading about the creative zeal that went into work-to-rule protests - dutifully studying the safety regulations and practising artificial respiration as regulation 47 stated they should do once a year, making sure that the lights were optimally located, sorting all papers into precisely labelled files, testing every machine three times, and so on. The nice thing about it was that it only worked because management had thought up a bunch of stupid rules to cover themselves which they never expected anyone to follow, and of course they couldn't withhold pay from people merely going by the regulations. They seem to have died out - perhaps managers finally got wise and disposed of the inessential rules.
You could stop a lot of businesses dead just with a Work To Information Security Policy.
It is so nice that OGH's regulars converse with Dr 'Sven' Palmer. Yet it is sad in many ways....
Without spoiling seanT's election special on Broxtowe:
The guy is a neo; someone that believes you are guilty unless proven innocent,
The guy prefers "Asian 'conservative' voters" yet despises many [multi-ethnic] folk who call themselves English,
The guy boasts about 'setting his own tax-rate in Switzerland', yet voted for pecuniary taxes upon "us common [English] folk". All the while his expenses claimed to the English tax-payer went upwards to infinity, and
The geezer wants to feck-orf to some troll-hole in Norway once he screws the English tax-payer of another 5-years of pension-crack!
Anyone who finds any decency in Sven Palmer should either a) stop posting, or b) stop breathing....
RobD All it did was ensure tonight's result with Juncker able to go through the debates with his eurofederalist views virtually unchallenged, the ECR could have eaten further into the EPP vote across the EU with a strong candidate, the only way to really stop Juncker it is now clear was to maximise the Eurosceptic vote in the Parliament
Shade under 5k majority and aged 61 so no obvious reason that he had to go, just a chap deciding he has done his bit, and good luck to him.
Any Cumbria expert to give us run down on the likelihood of the seat changing hands?
No chance of it changing hands. Why do you think it might?
You misunderstand me, Mr JS. I don't have any views one way or another. That is why I was asking for an opinion of someone who knows the area. After all a 5k majority doesn't put it into the top class of safe seats, loss of incumbency effect, maybe some local issues as well could put in the possible change column. I don't know, so I asked.
Well I've been totally obsessed with constituencies for 15 years and IMHO it won't change hands under any circumstances. The Labour vote in the town of Workington is rock solid. It's true they did narrowly lose the seat in the 1976 by-election but those were rather extreme circumstances.
Discrimination, either way was only in a very limited number of areas (Liverpool, Glasgow) and it was very difficult to differentiate unless there were religiously segregated schools.
One of the reasons why there should NOT be faith schools! People like Gove who happily approve them are storing up problems for their successors.
Firstly, I am sick and tired of people criticising faith schools without mentioning academic performance i.e. the criterion all schools should be judged on.
Secondly, if faith schools led to discrimination against Catholics, why did we bother to set them up and send our children there?
Shade under 5k majority and aged 61 so no obvious reason that he had to go, just a chap deciding he has done his bit, and good luck to him.
Any Cumbria expert to give us run down on the likelihood of the seat changing hands?
No chance of it changing hands. Why do you think it might?
You misunderstand me, Mr JS. I don't have any views one way or another. That is why I was asking for an opinion of someone who knows the area. After all a 5k majority doesn't put it into the top class of safe seats, loss of incumbency effect, maybe some local issues as well could put in the possible change column. I don't know, so I asked.
Well I've been totally obsessed with constituencies for 15 years and IMHO it won't change hands under any circumstances. The Labour vote in the town of Workington is rock solid. It's true they did narrowly lose the seat in the 1976 by-election but those were rather extreme circumstances.
Shade under 5k majority and aged 61 so no obvious reason that he had to go, just a chap deciding he has done his bit, and good luck to him.
Any Cumbria expert to give us run down on the likelihood of the seat changing hands?
No chance of it changing hands. Why do you think it might?
You misunderstand me, Mr JS. I don't have any views one way or another. That is why I was asking for an opinion of someone who knows the area. After all a 5k majority doesn't put it into the top class of safe seats, loss of incumbency effect, maybe some local issues as well could put in the possible change column. I don't know, so I asked.
Well I've been totally obsessed with constituencies for 15 years and IMHO it won't change hands under any circumstances. The Labour vote in the town of Workington is rock solid. It's true they did narrowly lose the seat in the 1976 by-election but those were rather extreme circumstances.
Fair enough and thank you.
I have been to that area, for a school geography field trip in the late 90s. I remember many of the houses being painted garish colours. Must be a local tradition. The Tories would need a 6% swing to win the seat.
Shade under 5k majority and aged 61 so no obvious reason that he had to go, just a chap deciding he has done his bit, and good luck to him.
Any Cumbria expert to give us run down on the likelihood of the seat changing hands?
No chance of it changing hands. Why do you think it might?
You misunderstand me, Mr JS. I don't have any views one way or another. That is why I was asking for an opinion of someone who knows the area. After all a 5k majority doesn't put it into the top class of safe seats, loss of incumbency effect, maybe some local issues as well could put in the possible change column. I don't know, so I asked.
Well I've been totally obsessed with constituencies for 15 years and IMHO it won't change hands under any circumstances. The Labour vote in the town of Workington is rock solid. It's true they did narrowly lose the seat in the 1976 by-election but those were rather extreme circumstances.
Shadsy agrees with you, the seat is 1-100 which is a good bet for Shadsy to take, even if it wins.
Academic success is one feature of a good school, but not the only one.
Why should a minority set up schools that foster segregation? Perhaps because it reinforces the social solidarity of the group and cements the position of its conservative hierarchy and values. If a community values indoctrinating its young more then integrating into the wider community then setting up schools that foster discrimination may be a logical response.
It is so nice that OGH's regulars converse with Dr 'Sven' Palmer. Yet it is sad in many ways....
Without spoiling seanT's election special on Broxtowe:
The guy is a neo; someone that believes you are guilty unless proven innocent,
The guy prefers "Asian 'conservative' voters" yet despises many [multi-ethnic] folk who call themselves English,
The guy boasts about 'setting his own tax-rate in Switzerland', yet voted for pecuniary taxes upon "us common [English] folk". All the while his expenses claimed to the English tax-payer went upwards to infinity, and
The geezer wants to feck-orf to some troll-hole in Norway once he screws the English tax-payer of another 5-years of pension-crack!
Anyone who finds any decency in Sven Palmer should either a) stop posting, or b) stop breathing....
Well, I have met the good Dr. Palmer on several occasions and debated with him on here many more times. I don't agree with much of his politics (though surprisingly we do have some overlaps) but have always found him to be a thoroughly decent fellow. I do not intend to follow your advice that I should stop posting or breathing.
The other area that may be worth a punt is the number of goals scored. This is a high scoring cup, and both Brazil and Columbia are pretty free scoring. Add in the knockout effect and the greater than X goals looks interesting.
Mr Dancer - there isn't a rule that the leaders of nation states should determine the head of the Commission. Like the US division of powers (which influenced the original EC founders), it's deliberately split - the leaders nominate someone, the Parliament decides. If they reject the nominee, the leaders have to reconsider. It's designed to avoid getting someone who either the leaders or the Parliament reject.
Clearly the Spitzenkandidaten approach has made it more likely that the leaders will choose the candidate of the winning party, but it's a mistake to see it as Parliament forcing itself on the leaders (who could have resisted if they'd wanted to) - rather, it's a strengthening of the European party alliance system which influenced Parliament and leaders alike.
To add to that: The Spitzenkandidat isn't chosen purely by MEPs. They're chosen by the whole group, which will include national delegations. Depending on the party / group this will give a lot of power to the party leaderships, who will also be national leaders in countries where they won (EPP), or directly to the voters in an open primary (Green) or somewhere in between (PES). Long-term the main result will be to give power back to the voters, not to the Parliament.
Comments
Mind you if only 23% could even be bothered to vote the anger may not be as deep and as widespread as some like to portray.
All in all I just don't get strikes in this day and age. The only people to lose out are the strikers.
They might not win, but at least some will have spoken up, instead off doffing their caps and
accepting that they should get poorer while the bankers and bosses get exponentially richer.
Sometimes a little pride is better than money.
We announced details today of the our Fourth Winter Exhibition.
In conjunction with the Blackburn Museum, Haworth Art Gallery (Hyndburn) and Towneley Hall (Burnley) it's going to be an exhibition telling the story of the collector-philanthropists of the industrial Northwest.
Exhibits include the best collection of Roman coins outside the British Museum, medieval manuscripts, Turner watercolours, Tiffany glass, Byzantium icons, taxidermied beetles and, I have been promised, one of the oldest mummies outside Egypt...
So anyone with an interest in Blackburn, Hyndburn or, dare I say, Burnley is very welcome to Two Temple Place to see these exhibitions that are usually open for only part of the week in the local museums. It'll be open to the public from 31st January through 19th April next year, and I'd be delighted to show anyone interested around the house if we can make diaries work ;-)
www.twotempleplace.org
www.blackburn.gov.uk/Pages/Museum-and-art-gallery.aspx
www.hyndburnbc.gov.uk/hag
www.burnley.gov.uk/residents/towneley-hall
'SNP MEP Alyn Smith told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland: “From an SNP perspective we can do business with him.'
Shame it's not going to happen, the SNP can continue to focus on potholes and airguns
http://www.cityam.com/1403808489/what-our-politicians-can-learn-hunger-games-rules-persuasion
Why our current politicians are just a waste of space.
" Pride is nice but you can't feed it to your kids. "
Indeed not, but for many that will be protesting, they can't feed their kids without a foodbank anyway.
Just sayin...
Bloody immigrants stealing our jobs.
They should be sent home on the next boat.
Fewer than 33.5 seats 10/11 (Lad)
More than 33.5 seats EVS (PP)
The number of parliamentary seats won by UKIP will be...................... 33 (thirty three)
"Then they are fecking stupid to make their financial situation even worse. "
They are stupid, and Cameron is a hero for doing the same?
But what are you on, me ol' weathercock?
Or perhaps you have been propping up the bar with Farage and Juncker?
But Angela hates dogs.
That is why Vova always brings Buffy to their summits.
See: http://bit.ly/TEyPLS
Strikes hurt strikers. There must be a better way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ip5e9NUvX6A
One 0f the best Muppet spoofs
In 2014, UKIP won 33% of MEP seats.
In 2010, Conservatives won 47% of MP seats.
Yo' da MAN!
I would rather have a PM fighting his corner for this country and sticking by his principles like today than PM milliband who we all know would have voted in favour for Juncker,cameron could have easily followed the line.
Glad what he did today,well done.
Stone me, call me a dope, and put me out to grass---and I'm probably ganja make a hash of this---but I think your prediction is suspiciously precise.
Cameron could have used a different tactic, and so could the protesters (note that it is a day of protest, the strikes are purely co-incidental)
Spending a Saturday getting filmed by the police, and being kettled in some out of the way park might suit you. unfortunately, like the taxi drivers recently, they want to make a loud point.
Anyway, on the bright side? Boris can ride around in one of his fancy secondhand water cannon? Must be a win for the blue team?
His numbers with last week's shown in brackets are:
Con ........... 302 seats (-5 seats)
Lab ............ 292 seats (+4 seats)
LibDem ....... 28 seats (+1 seat)
Others ........ 28 seats (unchanged)
Total ..........650 seats
If you sell out in September, you should be able to avoid the impact of the interest rate rise in Q4 on the capital value and still make a 2.5% yield pre-tax, but you only tie your money up for 3 months vs. 10
Of course this is not financial advice, DYOR, etc etc.
(* It's not one I'd invest in personally, because the yields dull to boring & I'm still long Wm Hill's equity)
However, you seem to feel that the politics of the strike is what matters not the effect it will have on the PBI of the class war. So we are not gong to get far with this discussion. Shall we let it go and remain friends?
This year my priority is staying in the UK. If this needs the tories to go nowhere until 19th September I will be quite content with that.
Headlines: Cameron's crushing defeat.
Reality: Endlessly boosted his pro-UK credentials amongst, um, UK voters.
At some point we will have a discussion about why I think your tremendous energies would best be directed in support of the Cons but that is for a different day.
Must... have.... football....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-28062556
Shade under 5k majority and aged 61 so no obvious reason that he had to go, just a chap deciding he has done his bit, and good luck to him.
Any Cumbria expert to give us run down on the likelihood of the seat changing hands?
I'm coming round to BOO rather strongly now.
China: 0.44%
UK: 0.54%
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uk.html
Brazil 0.8%
India 1.25%
Russia -0.03%
Elizabeth Windsor@Queen_UK·Jun 25
Text from David Cameron: "Shit week". Awkward.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/tennis/market?id=1.110016496
Just musing over tommorows prospects.
Brazil seem to be getting their form after a nervous start. Still weak at the back, but they should beat Chile.
Uruguay without Suarez should not be too tough for Columbia, who have impressed me most of the South American teams. They should beat Uruguay.
And Leicester Citeh's interest is still there with Algeria...
http://euranetplus-inside.eu/it-will-be-difficult-for-juncker-to-convince-us/
https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/ecr-and-greensefa-candidates-blast-parliament-president-stitch
Without spoiling seanT's election special on Broxtowe:
- The guy is a neo; someone that believes you are guilty unless proven innocent,
- The guy prefers "Asian 'conservative' voters" yet despises many [multi-ethnic] folk who call themselves English,
- The guy boasts about 'setting his own tax-rate in Switzerland', yet voted for pecuniary taxes upon "us common [English] folk". All the while his expenses claimed to the English tax-payer went upwards to infinity, and
- The geezer wants to feck-orf to some troll-hole in Norway once he screws the English tax-payer of another 5-years of pension-crack!
Anyone who finds any decency in Sven Palmer should either a) stop posting, or b) stop breathing....Secondly, if faith schools led to discrimination against Catholics, why did we bother to set them up and send our children there?
Why should a minority set up schools that foster segregation? Perhaps because it reinforces the social solidarity of the group and cements the position of its conservative hierarchy and values. If a community values indoctrinating its young more then integrating into the wider community then setting up schools that foster discrimination may be a logical response.