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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s cross-over time on the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. Immigration moves clear of the economy as top concern

Concern about immigration now takes over from the economy as main concern in @IpsosMORI Issues Index
See pic.twitter.com/m2IDfDKVZU

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DavidL

The people have spoken, the bastards.

The tories go a long way to fixing the economy and nobody cares any more. Life is not fair is it?

Edit. Oh and first apparently.

MarkHopkins

DavidL said:

The people have spoken, the bastards.

The tories go a long way to fixing the economy and nobody cares any more. Life is not fair is it?

Edit. Oh and first apparently.

Perhaps because the Tories are seen as fixing the economy that people are no longer so concerned?

DavidL

Is this going to be one of these phantom threads no one can post on and be read by anyone else?

Socrates

The fundamental problem here is that the elite believe the plebs only care about immigration because of the dastardly press. So they think if they can make a few high profile announcements it will calm the storm and they don't need to do anything concrete again for a while.

But that's a fundamental misreading. Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

AveryLP

Interesting, but foolish.

The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.

It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

DavidL

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.

The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.

It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

I am of the view that anyone who thinks that the fact that the country still has to borrow £2bn a week to pay the bills is not one of the most important issues (being generous) facing the country really is not fit to vote.

My guess is that the next EU crisis will be after the general election as it is eventually admitted that more defaults are necessary although the situation in France is quite grim and getting grimmer. An oil spike could be the final straw.

This may not, of course, be the best context for Cameron to be seeking discussions on a constitution.

edmundintokyo

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

blackburn63

Immigration 39% In Kent its nearer 99%. The headline by MS comparing views in the Midlands bears out what I've been saying about ignoring national polls re UKIP, in targeted areas it is far higher than the 16/17% currently polling. Interesting how labour react to this.

taffys

''And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country.''

100% correct. The other day I was having an afternoon beer in a pub in east London. I won;t name it, but it has strong links to the armed forces and is very much a community place.

It was a nice day and schools were coming out. One burkha clad woman after another sailed past the windows of the pub, pushing prams. Some were accompanied by men in islamic dress.

The people behind the bar looked like they were under siege. The whole thing just felt so bizarre and unnatural.

I don't imagine the people who own the place or drink there regularly care much about ONS figures. I also realised why Nigel Farage uses pubs for his campaigning, and why they are becoming a powerful political symbol.

anotherDave

"[Dominic Cummings] recently conducted focus groups in marginal constituencies … people … think that immigration is “out of control”, puts public services under intolerable strain (“my doctor’s appointment was delayed”) and “stupid benefit rules” allow immigrants to claim “without contributing anything”.

People now spontaneously connect immigration and the EU"

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4130272.ece

TCPoliticalBetting

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.
The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.
It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

European leaders who choose not to fix the roof before the rain comes, instead we watch them carrying on in the same old ways.

Socrates

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

This is what pro-immigration people tell themselves to grasp at straws. Here's the thing: people are intelligent enough to see what is happening to the next town over. In many cases they've moved away from the town in question, or deliberately avoided moving there. That's why you get the effect you describe.

Richard_Nabavi

Can't help feeling that Ed M might not have been ultra-smart when he decided to major on the issue which comes out ninth in the list.

Speedy

DavidL said:

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.

The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.

It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

I am of the view that anyone who thinks that the fact that the country still has to borrow £2bn a week to pay the bills is not one of the most important issues (being generous) facing the country really is not fit to vote.

My guess is that the next EU crisis will be after the general election as it is eventually admitted that more defaults are necessary although the situation in France is quite grim and getting grimmer. An oil spike could be the final straw.

This may not, of course, be the best context for Cameron to be seeking discussions on a constitution.

The next EU crisis will be whenever the US economy is in recession again and the stock bubble bursts. The liquidity crisis caused by the bubble burst will hit european bond markets first causing a massive withdrawal of hot money and because no problems have actually been solved since last time a debt crisis will again occur, but this time debts are too high and economies too exhausted by the last crisis for the system to survive (I doubt the west has another 10 trillion pounds to spend on bailouts of banks and eurozone countries) .
Just like the interbellum years.

TCPoliticalBetting

On the top two issues Labour are behind the Conservatives. Does anyone know how Labour polling on the 3rd issue, unemployment, compares to that for the Conservatives?

Socrates

Richard_Nabavi said:

Can't help feeling that Ed M might not have been ultra-smart when he decided to major on the issue which comes out ninth in the list.

And below the EU as an issue. Presumably the usual people here who say the voters don't care about Europe and so politicians should ignore the issue also believe they don't care about pensions or the cost of living, and so we shouldn't address concerns in those areas.

TGOHF

Interview with Ed

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/27/ed-miliband-photo-ops-critics_n_5536248.html?1403873623&utm_hp_ref=uk

"I genuinely believe one of the reasons we are in a position to win the next election is because actually, in the end, the British public do judge people on their ideas and what they stand for and what difference they’ll make to the country. And I think principled leadership matters a lot, a lot more than all this other stuff"

Socrates

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.

The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.

It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

I am of the view that anyone who thinks that the fact that the country still has to borrow £2bn a week to pay the bills is not one of the most important issues (being generous) facing the country really is not fit to vote.

My guess is that the next EU crisis will be after the general election as it is eventually admitted that more defaults are necessary although the situation in France is quite grim and getting grimmer. An oil spike could be the final straw.

This may not, of course, be the best context for Cameron to be seeking discussions on a constitution.

The next EU crisis will be whenever the US economy is in recession again and the stock bubble bursts. The liquidity crisis caused by the bubble burst will hit european bond markets first causing a massive withdrawal of hot money and because no problems have actually been solved since last time a debt crisis will again occur, but this time debts are too high and economies too exhausted by the last crisis for the system to survive (I doubt the west has another 10 trillion pounds to spend on bailouts of banks and eurozone countries) .
Just like the interbellum years.

And when do you think this will happen?

Scrapheap_as_was

Says an ex journalist who reached the very top of his profession .... the express.

Perhaps he's been out for friday lunch with Nigel

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·14 mins
The main thing about Dave is that he's a loser, don't you think? Lost on Juncker, couldn't even beat Brown, came third in the Euros.

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·5 mins
Come to think of it - it's a Tory Cabinet full of losers; Hague, IDS, Os the not very good campaign manager.

TCPoliticalBetting

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.
The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.
It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

I am of the view that anyone who thinks that the fact that the country still has to borrow £2bn a week to pay the bills is not one of the most important issues (being generous) facing the country really is not fit to vote.
My guess is that the next EU crisis will be after the general election as it is eventually admitted that more defaults are necessary although the situation in France is quite grim and getting grimmer. An oil spike could be the final straw.
This may not, of course, be the best context for Cameron to be seeking discussions on a constitution.

The next EU crisis will be whenever the US economy is in recession again and the stock bubble bursts. The liquidity crisis caused by the bubble burst will hit european bond markets first causing a massive withdrawal of hot money and because no problems have actually been solved since last time a debt crisis will again occur, but this time debts are too high and economies too exhausted by the last crisis for the system to survive (I doubt the west has another 10 trillion pounds to spend on bailouts of banks and eurozone countries) . Just like the interbellum years.

Maybe, but the failure in France etc to grow their economies is more likely IMHO to lead to the next european crisis.

Speedy

2015 looks more like 1997 again, the economy is fixed (sort of) but the voters don't care so they vote for someone else.

So the economy is good enough for people to risk voting Labour and immigration and europe are high enough for people to vote UKIP.

DavidL

Richard_Nabavi said:

Can't help feeling that Ed M might not have been ultra-smart when he decided to major on the issue which comes out ninth in the list.

Oh I don't know:

Immigration (how many times can we say sorry)
Economy (moving on)
Unemployment (maybe not our best forecast then)
NHS (surely got to be a much worse winter this year, hasn't it?)

You see the problem?

ManchesterKurt

But that doesn't make sense.

It's the urban areas, with the highest levels of immigration that often have the lowest concerns.

Often the areas with almost no immigration for miles around that have the greatest concerns conversely.

It's not anything like as simple as you would suggest.

It's my guess that places that 'feel' that they have changed recently or feel there is a threat that their area will change soon that sees the highest level of concern.

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

This is what pro-immigration people tell themselves to grasp at straws. Here's the thing: people are intelligent enough to see what is happening to the next town over. In many cases they've moved away from the town in question, or deliberately avoided moving there. That's why you get the effect you describe.

AveryLP

FPT

Smarmeron said:

@AveryLP

"I am not sure you would have written this paragraph, Smarmy:

To be fair, Mr. Carney himself suggested in that interview with the CBC that his repeated warnings about the housing market and debt levels here were, in large part, meant to prevent a potential problem from turning into a real problem by convincing Canadians to slow down their debt binge."

Nice warning. Did he do the same in Canada as he has just done here? Which as you know is nothing, bar a vague mutter and a sort of promise to do something more substantial in 2017?

Smarmy

Carney's latest move - or more correctly the FPC's move - to restrict bank mortgages to 4.5 times income with its implicit loop-hole which allows for 85% compliance was a great example of how best to exercise the BoE's new powers.

It was seen as targetting the problem area (London up to Zone 2) without effecting the rest of the country and not to be so heavy handed that it forces workarounds.

It was also a clear demonstrator to the market indicating how such powers could be deployed elsewhere if the London problems were replicated elsewhere.

The market also welcomed the intervention:

U.K. homebuilders rose after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney introduced measures to cool the housing market that were less stringent than some investors had expected.
...
Homebuilders erased the past month’s losses after Carney said at a press conference that the government would act to limit riskier mortgages and prevent an unsustainable buildup of debt by consumers. Today’s announcement is the biggest recent effort by a major central bank to actively tackle the threat of an asset bubble and avoid a repeat of the credit crisis.

To keep both the bulls and the bears at bay and provide a headline news warning to consumers and market particpants is an highly rated art in Central Bankers.

taffys

2015 looks more like 1997 again, the economy is fixed (sort of) but the voters don't care so they vote for someone else.

In 1997 the conservatives reputation on the economy was in the toilet because of the EMS crisis. Even though the economy had improved, Blair absolutely creamed the blues on economic competence because of EMS.

TCPoliticalBetting

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Says an ex journalist who reached the very top of his profession .... the express. Perhaps he's been out for friday lunch with Nigel
Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·14 mins
The main thing about Dave is that he's a loser, don't you think? Lost on Juncker, couldn't even beat Brown, came third in the Euros. Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·5 mins
Come to think of it - it's a Tory Cabinet full of losers; Hague, IDS, Os the not very good campaign manager.

Partisan stuff like this gives UKIP little credibility with swing voters who see it. UKIP should be focused on sorting themselves and their manifesto out before the GE scrutiny hits them.

john_zims

@anotherDave

'People now spontaneously connect immigration and the EU"

That's why it's always been a myth to pretend the EU is not a major issue with voters.

TGOHF

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Says an ex journalist who reached the very top of his profession .... the express.

Perhaps he's been out for friday lunch with Nigel

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·14 mins
The main thing about Dave is that he's a loser, don't you think? Lost on Juncker, couldn't even beat Brown, came third in the Euros.

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·5 mins
Come to think of it - it's a Tory Cabinet full of losers; Hague, IDS, Os the not very good campaign manager.

Ah the SNP approach to winning friends - snipe from the sidelines.

O'F , Farage and crew will lose the EU referendum for out - nailed on.

DavidL

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.

The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.

It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

I am of the view that anyone who thinks that the fact that the country still has to borrow £2bn a week to pay the bills is not one of the most important issues (being generous) facing the country really is not fit to vote.

My guess is that the next EU crisis will be after the general election as it is eventually admitted that more defaults are necessary although the situation in France is quite grim and getting grimmer. An oil spike could be the final straw.

This may not, of course, be the best context for Cameron to be seeking discussions on a constitution.

The next EU crisis will be whenever the US economy is in recession again and the stock bubble bursts. The liquidity crisis caused by the bubble burst will hit european bond markets first causing a massive withdrawal of hot money and because no problems have actually been solved since last time a debt crisis will again occur, but this time debts are too high and economies too exhausted by the last crisis for the system to survive (I doubt the west has another 10 trillion pounds to spend on bailouts of banks and eurozone countries) .
Just like the interbellum years.

Liquidity crises are so noughties darling! We just print these days. Get with the programme.

AndyJS

"UK has had fastest growing population in Europe for a decade

Fastest growth in Europe takes UK population to 64.1 million with half of the increase since 1964 in the last 12 years alone, ONS figures show"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10927865/UK-has-had-fastest-growing-population-in-Europe-for-a-decade-official-figures.html

Scrapheap_as_was

Let loose the PB Tory Herd at the suspiciously lubricated tweets of ukip mep and express 'winner'

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·1 min
@oflynndirector @paulstpancras But Tories walloped UKIP in Newark & you've never got more than 27.8% of votes in any Westminster seat

Speedy

Socrates said:

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.

The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.

It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

I am of the view that anyone who thinks that the fact that the country still has to borrow £2bn a week to pay the bills is not one of the most important issues (being generous) facing the country really is not fit to vote.

My guess is that the next EU crisis will be after the general election as it is eventually admitted that more defaults are necessary although the situation in France is quite grim and getting grimmer. An oil spike could be the final straw.

This may not, of course, be the best context for Cameron to be seeking discussions on a constitution.

The next EU crisis will be whenever the US economy is in recession again and the stock bubble bursts. The liquidity crisis caused by the bubble burst will hit european bond markets first causing a massive withdrawal of hot money and because no problems have actually been solved since last time a debt crisis will again occur, but this time debts are too high and economies too exhausted by the last crisis for the system to survive (I doubt the west has another 10 trillion pounds to spend on bailouts of banks and eurozone countries) .
Just like the interbellum years.

And when do you think this will happen?

A US recession occurs on average every 8 years, the last one ended in 2009 so by 2017 there is a 50% chance, for overheating before a recession look at weekly unemployment benefits (if bellow 300k at 4 week average), the trade deficit (if it goes up) and inflation (CPI not core, to take oil into account), to find where the bubble will start to burst look at were the massive borrowing occurs (at this moment its student loans, car loans and corporate loans for stock buybacks).
This should cover it for you.

Smarmeron

@AveryLP

Peston's take is similar to Bloomberg's I believe.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28035658

DYOR if you feel like it. It is time for me to be off sustaining the economic recovery.

Richard_Nabavi

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Let loose the PB Tory Herd at the suspiciously lubricated tweets of ukip mep and express 'winner'

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·1 min
@oflynndirector @paulstpancras But Tories walloped UKIP in Newark & you've never got more than 27.8% of votes in any Westminster seat

I'm surprised Mike didn't mention Buckingham...

isam

The stories of hundred of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants fighting for ISIS and making videos talking about "our people" and not meaning English people probably don't help.

As I said last night, Anna Soubry on QT taking about "Muslim community leaders" in Broxtowe just underlines the point that mass immigration hasn't worked.. if it had the community leaders would represent everyone, the immigrants having assimilated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf6Kol0GCOw

Scrapheap_as_was

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Let loose the PB Tory Herd at the suspiciously lubricated tweets of ukip mep and express 'winner'

Mike Smithson‏@MSmithsonPB·1 min
@oflynndirector @paulstpancras But Tories walloped UKIP in Newark & you've never got more than 27.8% of votes in any Westminster seat

I'm surprised Mike didn't mention Buckingham...

My guess is the financial pain is too great to go there - not so for those of us who are fortunate enough to inhabit the people's republic of Bercow!!!

How cunning of our Speaker and Great Leader to be in a constituency so close to Berkhamsted as well, subliminal messaging as everyone near here calls it Berkho of course...

DavidL

O/T Luke Shaw signs for United following Herrera yesterday. The many mistakes of last year seem to have been learned from.

Really pleased how Holland's tactics have been changed when required as well.

Rarely a good plan to follow your heart with a cheque book but without Europe to worry about are United worth a bet for the title?

AveryLP

As it looks as though this thread is a dogwhistle for the loonies, fruitcakes and racists to come out of their closets, I shall post a link to a fine twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/LeaderBonehill

Has anyone heard of Joshua Bonehill before? He is a self-claimed "Rising Star of the Right, Resistance Leader and Revolutionary Nationalist. Founder of @official_NBR" ["National British Resistance"].

Every tweet is a gem and it is hard to pick out a winner. Here is one as a flavour:

Joshua Bonehill ‏@LeaderBonehill
The Labour Party should really be renamed the Jewish Party, there's an awful lot of Jews heading up the party. It's an unfair majority.

This man is either a spoof or an official Kipper candidate.

edmundintokyo

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

This is what pro-immigration people tell themselves to grasp at straws. Here's the thing: people are intelligent enough to see what is happening to the next town over. In many cases they've moved away from the town in question, or deliberately avoided moving there. That's why you get the effect you describe.

Why can't the people in the town where it's happening see it?

AndyJS

Everything seems to be conspiring to assist UKIP at the moment. If immigration remains top of voters' concerns, the chances of the party declining to 5% by the time of the general election as Cameron hopes would seem to be close to zero.

Scrapheap_as_was

It's Big Daddy and Giant Haystacks of PB-world... tag-teaming the express career winner.

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·40 mins
The main thing about Dave is that he's a loser, don't you think? Lost on Juncker, couldn't even beat Brown, came third in the Euros.

Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·37 mins
@oflynndirector Newark?

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·33 mins
@DPJHodges Newark? Newark? Is that the best you can do, Dan?
Expand Reply

Dan Hodges‏@DPJHodges·5 mins
@oflynndirector ...just pointing out second was the best you could do Patrick. Winning is what matters, right...?

TGOHF

To be fair Ukip won the EU elections - no loser there

isam

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

This is what pro-immigration people tell themselves to grasp at straws. Here's the thing: people are intelligent enough to see what is happening to the next town over. In many cases they've moved away from the town in question, or deliberately avoided moving there. That's why you get the effect you describe.

Why can't the people in the town where it's happening see it?

Because they are too poor to move or are immigrants themselves?

Oliver_PB

I always find Ipsos-MORI's wording a little suspect, since "race relations/immigration" doesn't just mean the UKIP crowd.

Scrapheap_as_was

Shandy o'clock? Oh wow...

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·4 mins
@DPJHodges we're the underdog that won a nationwide set of elections, Dan. Tories held one of their safest seats in a by-election. Oh wow.

Lennon

DavidL said:

O/T Luke Shaw signs for United following Herrera yesterday. The many mistakes of last year seem to have been learned from.

Really pleased how Holland's tactics have been changed when required as well.

Rarely a good plan to follow your heart with a cheque book but without Europe to worry about are United worth a bet for the title?

Depending on the odds it's a good shout. Liverpool will be without Hannibal and will be fighting on too many fronts (Champions League, plus pressure to qualify again), Arsenal flatter to deceive so I would discount them, so it's only really City and Mourinho to worry about. I would put Man Utd as a close(ish) 3rd in that 3 horse race.

isam

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Shandy o'clock? Oh wow...

Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynndirector·4 mins
@DPJHodges we're the underdog that won a nationwide set of elections, Dan. Tories held one of their safest seats in a by-election. Oh wow.

Nails the point that Mike misses though

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

Nails the point that Mike misses though

You mean that Farage couldn't even beat John Stevens?

isam

New spoof account...

Tony Blair ‏@T0nyBlair · 7m
I'm beginning to feel a tad bullied by all this #sackBlair business

#warmongershavefeelingstoo

isam

What price A Neil for Newsnight?

Hosting tonight

DailySunday Politics ‏@daily_politics · 1h
Diary dates of the #bbcdp team:

@afneil on @BBCNewsnight Fri 2230 & #bbcsp Sun 1100,

@Jo_Coburn on #bbcdp Mon 1100-1130 & Tue 1130-1230

edmundintokyo

isam said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

This is what pro-immigration people tell themselves to grasp at straws. Here's the thing: people are intelligent enough to see what is happening to the next town over. In many cases they've moved away from the town in question, or deliberately avoided moving there. That's why you get the effect you describe.

Why can't the people in the town where it's happening see it?

Because they are too poor to move or are immigrants themselves?

Too poor to vote or answer opinion polls?

Speedy

DavidL said:

Speedy said:

DavidL said:

AveryLP said:

Interesting, but foolish.

The economy is by no means solved and we are heading for a second EU crisis before the General Election.

It won't of course be blamed on Hollande's or Renzi's profligacy: it will be blamed on evil banksters who are not prepared to increase their Euro exposure, Middle East tinsurgents who are not prepared to put down their arms, and Russians who are not prepared to abandon their imperialist ambitions.

I am of the view that anyone who thinks that the fact that the country still has to borrow £2bn a week to pay the bills is not one of the most important issues (being generous) facing the country really is not fit to vote.

My guess is that the next EU crisis will be after the general election as it is eventually admitted that more defaults are necessary although the situation in France is quite grim and getting grimmer. An oil spike could be the final straw.

This may not, of course, be the best context for Cameron to be seeking discussions on a constitution.

The next EU crisis will be whenever the US economy is in recession again and the stock bubble bursts. The liquidity crisis caused by the bubble burst will hit european bond markets first causing a massive withdrawal of hot money and because no problems have actually been solved since last time a debt crisis will again occur, but this time debts are too high and economies too exhausted by the last crisis for the system to survive (I doubt the west has another 10 trillion pounds to spend on bailouts of banks and eurozone countries) .
Just like the interbellum years.

Liquidity crises are so noughties darling! We just print these days. Get with the programme.

As the inventor of QE John Law found out, printing doesn't mean that people will use the money soundly.
It didn't save Japan which has free money since 1995 from 6 recessions.
And Bulgaria with its 0% interest rates is experiencing a massive banking crisis this week, for foreigners greek banks and greek companies are the ones most exposed.

NickPalmer

isam said:

The stories of hundred of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants fighting for ISIS and making videos talking about "our people" and not meaning English people probably don't help.

As I said last night, Anna Soubry on QT taking about "Muslim community leaders" in Broxtowe just underlines the point that mass immigration hasn't worked.. if it had the community leaders would represent everyone, the immigrants having assimilated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf6Kol0GCOw

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

Socrates

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

This is what pro-immigration people tell themselves to grasp at straws. Here's the thing: people are intelligent enough to see what is happening to the next town over. In many cases they've moved away from the town in question, or deliberately avoided moving there. That's why you get the effect you describe.

Why can't the people in the town where it's happening see it?

A lot of them will be British-born but of the same migrant group. And those that are not and feel a loss of community will either have moved away or not moved in when they otherwise would have.

MrJones

All that about the economy improving and Osborne being a whizkid has paid off then.

Speedy

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

The stories of hundred of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants fighting for ISIS and making videos talking about "our people" and not meaning English people probably don't help.

As I said last night, Anna Soubry on QT taking about "Muslim community leaders" in Broxtowe just underlines the point that mass immigration hasn't worked.. if it had the community leaders would represent everyone, the immigrants having assimilated.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf6Kol0GCOw

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

Its not ISIS that is the worry for me immigration wise, its the corruption that these people bring from their societies (tower hamlets is a good example).

taffys

Juncker nominated...

Bloomberg...

MrJones

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

100s of thousands of people - especially people with school age children - have been moving away from areas of high immigration so what you'd expect is for anti-immigration parties to be doing well in the areas those people moved to.

edmundintokyo

*** Raises cognac glass ***

Speedy

taffys said:

Juncker nominated...

Bloomberg...

All hail Juncker, the Caesar of europe for the next 10 years (assuming europe exists in 10 years), may his german superiors live long.

Socrates

NickPalmer said:

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

You're right, the overwhelming majority would not. It's only a fraction of 1%. But the problem we turn a blind eye to are the substantial minority who have unpleasant views: believing women should cover themselves head to toe, believing women should always obey their husbands, believing gay people are perverts, believing the West is decadent, believing Jews are behind a secret war against Muslims around the world, believing in harsh shariah punishments, praising Saudi Arabia as an ideal society. Growing up in communities where this culture of intolerance is widespread, makes young Muslims easy prey for radical preachers.

Most Muslims don't believe these things, but enough believe at least a few of them that it's very easy for young Muslims to feel like victims and alienated from the rest of British society. And when you believe an ideal state engages in hand-cutting for theft or stoning for adultery, it's not quite as extreme to believe Islam's enemies should be beheaded by non-recognised "states" (as ISIS claims to be).

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

isam said:

Nails the point that Mike misses though

You mean that Farage couldn't even beat John Stevens?

No, that in circumstances that favour them, UKIP win, in circumstances where they have no right to win, they don't/come 2nd

isam

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

The stories of hundred of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants fighting for ISIS and making videos talking about "our people" and not meaning English people probably don't help.

As I said last night, Anna Soubry on QT taking about "Muslim community leaders" in Broxtowe just underlines the point that mass immigration hasn't worked.. if it had the community leaders would represent everyone, the immigrants having assimilated.

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

I am not knocking Soubry for that, I am making the point that if mass immigration had worked, there would be no need for "Muslim community leaders" "Black community leaders", just as there aren't "White community leaders" or "Christian community spokesman"... or if there are, we never hear from them.. watch the youtube clip I linked to - Trevor Phillips, Lord Lester, Roy Jenkins and many other founders of multiculturalism all admitting it failed

Slackbladder

Excellent for B O O..

corporeal

isam said:

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

The stories of hundred of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants fighting for ISIS and making videos talking about "our people" and not meaning English people probably don't help.

As I said last night, Anna Soubry on QT taking about "Muslim community leaders" in Broxtowe just underlines the point that mass immigration hasn't worked.. if it had the community leaders would represent everyone, the immigrants having assimilated.

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

I am not knocking Soubry for that, I am making the point that if mass immigration had worked, there would be no need for "Muslim community leaders" "Black community leaders", just as there aren't "White community leaders" or "Christian community spokesman"... or if there are, we never hear from them.. watch the youtube clip I linked to - Trevor Phillips, Lord Lester, Roy Jenkins and many other founders of multiculturalism all admitting it failed

What's the Archbishop of Canterbury if not a Christian Community spokesman with a fancier hat?

Socrates

@Edmund_in_Tokyo

Well we have an example of UKIP in London. Everyone says London rejected UKIP because it is so metropolitan and tolerant. But actually, white Londoners voted UKIP at the same rates as the rest of the country. Obviously race isn't the ideal metric for how culturally British you are, but it must have a fair correlation. It would be preferable to be able to see how people voted by generation of immigration: e.g. first, second, third, fourth and above etc.

taffys

''You're right, the overwhelming majority would not''

What do the 99% who are not extremists do to oppose the 1% who are??

Look at trojan horse. Look at Iraq. Nigeria. The evidence isn't very inspiring.

dyedwoolie

Socrates said:

NickPalmer said:

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

You're right, the overwhelming majority would not. It's only a fraction of 1%. But the problem we turn a blind eye to are the substantial minority who have unpleasant views: believing women should cover themselves head to toe, believing women should always obey their husbands, believing gay people are perverts, believing the West is decadent, believing Jews are behind a secret war against Muslims around the world, believing in harsh shariah punishments, praising Saudi Arabia as an ideal society. Growing up in communities where this culture of intolerance is widespread, makes young Muslims easy prey for radical preachers.

Most Muslims don't believe these things, but enough believe at least a few of them that it's very easy for young Muslims to feel like victims and alienated from the rest of British society. And when you believe an ideal state engages in hand-cutting for theft or stoning for adultery, it's not quite as extreme to believe Islam's enemies should be beheaded by non-recognised "states" (as ISIS claims to be).

The problem is how to tackle it.
Rheotric will lead to fear, fear will lead to hatred and hatred leads to the obliteration of the Middle-East, much of Africa and the SE Asian Islands, and New Dachau in every western city.
OK, that's the extreme outcome of Islamaphobia, but how to reach detente with the majority moderate Muslim communities around the world? How to co-exist, mingle and prosper without a culture of fear and misunderstanding? How to counter extremism without alienating moderates, whilst containing the extremist tendencies of some in the West?
It's a problem that seems insoluble. Which leads to rhetoric......

corporeal

Socrates said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

Most people out in the country form their views on immigration from the experiences they have around them. The latest ONS data release does not shape these views, although it provides an insight into what people are experiencing. And right now people feel there are too many unintegrated migrants in the country. As long as that number continues to rise, as we add migrants faster than they can integrate, people are going to get increasingly angry about the politicians not listening.

Dunno, if that was what was the story you'd expect support for anti-immigration parties to correlate with areas with high immigration, but IIUC that's not what's happening.

This is what pro-immigration people tell themselves to grasp at straws. Here's the thing: people are intelligent enough to see what is happening to the next town over. In many cases they've moved away from the town in question, or deliberately avoided moving there. That's why you get the effect you describe.

Given the BCS results disparity given people's local area vs outside their local area, I'd say people often don't know what's happening in the next town over.

isam

Socrates said:

NickPalmer said:

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

You're right, the overwhelming majority would not. It's only a fraction of 1%. But the problem we turn a blind eye to are the substantial minority who have unpleasant views: believing women should cover themselves head to toe, believing women should always obey their husbands, believing gay people are perverts, believing the West is decadent, believing Jews are behind a secret war against Muslims around the world, believing in harsh shariah punishments, praising Saudi Arabia as an ideal society. Growing up in communities where this culture of intolerance is widespread, makes young Muslims easy prey for radical preachers.

Most Muslims don't believe these things, but enough believe at least a few of them that it's very easy for young Muslims to feel like victims and alienated from the rest of British society. And when you believe an ideal state engages in hand-cutting for theft or stoning for adultery, it's not quite as extreme to believe Islam's enemies should be beheaded by non-recognised "states" (as ISIS claims to be).

The trouble is, idiots like Tony Blair and other busy bodies that like to meddle in the Middle East are no better than the Mad Muslims who want to take over the West... They don't appreciate us imposing "democracy" on them anymore than we want Sharia Law or Segregated communities

taffys

How to reach detente with the majority moderate Muslim communities around the world?

We might ask them how they themselves plan to counter the extremists?

MrJones

If the political and media class didn't cover up problems when they were small then they would never have got so big.

volcanopete

It's 26-2 with UK humiliated.Dave played a blinder.

corporeal

taffys said:

How to reach detente with the majority moderate Muslim communities around the world?

We might ask them how they themselves plan to counter the extremists?

Eh, I don't like the sort of collective blame angle of it being moderate muslims responsible for extremists.

AndyJS

"EU backs Juncker to head Commission in blow to UK":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28049375

Scrapheap_as_was

You know our PBreds who comfort blanket every opinion poll with Ed being PM... they won't like this article so best ignore it.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/

isam

corporeal said:

isam said:

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

The stories of hundred of 2nd/3rd generation immigrants fighting for ISIS and making videos talking about "our people" and not meaning English people probably don't help.

As I said last night, Anna Soubry on QT taking about "Muslim community leaders" in Broxtowe just underlines the point that mass immigration hasn't worked.. if it had the community leaders would represent everyone, the immigrants having assimilated.

I didn't see the programme, but going by what you say, to be fair to AS, no leaders represent EVERYONE. It's not David Cameron's fault if Joe Bloggs gets drunk and runs someone over, so long as Cameron hasn't actually encouraged drink driving. Muslim community leaders reflect the overwhelming majority of British Muslims who would no more go and fight for ISIS than you or I would.

I am not knocking Soubry for that, I am making the point that if mass immigration had worked, there would be no need for "Muslim community leaders" "Black community leaders", just as there aren't "White community leaders" or "Christian community spokesman"... or if there are, we never hear from them.. watch the youtube clip I linked to - Trevor Phillips, Lord Lester, Roy Jenkins and many other founders of multiculturalism all admitting it failed

What's the Archbishop of Canterbury if not a Christian Community spokesman with a fancier hat?

There no point having this conversation with people like you

edmundintokyo

Socrates said:

But actually, white Londoners voted UKIP at the same rates as the rest of the country.

London has much more immigration than the rest of the country, so your theory would predict them voting UKIP at much higher rates.

dyedwoolie

taffys said:

How to reach detente with the majority moderate Muslim communities around the world?

We might ask them how they themselves plan to counter the extremists?

Their problem is our problem. Detente cannot be accusatory and provocative.
I don't really have an answer, I'm resigned to the thought that the West will commit atrocities in response to atrocities as it did in Iraq and the world will be a perilous place to be for decades to come. The deeper we go, the worse our own atrocities will be. There's a thirst for hatred out there, you hear it when the discussion of Islam comes up in pubs and cafés, at water coolers and in the dunny.

We need to get the religions of the world co-existing peacefully before we can point out to them that it was all nonsense anyway and start partying.

GIN1138

Speedy said:

2015 looks more like 1997 again, the economy is fixed (sort of) but the voters don't care so they vote for someone else.

So the economy is good enough for people to risk voting Labour and immigration and europe are high enough for people to vote UKIP.

Except for one fairly crucial difference - At this point in 1996 Labour had a 16% lead with ICM, while in June 2014 it was just 1%

isam

corporeal said:

taffys said:

How to reach detente with the majority moderate Muslim communities around the world?

We might ask them how they themselves plan to counter the extremists?

Eh, I don't like the sort of collective blame angle of it being moderate muslims responsible for extremists.

It's not moderate muslims to blame, its lefty apologists like yourself that stoke it up by refusing to admit there is a problem

taffys

''Eh, I don't like the sort of collective blame angle of it being moderate muslims responsible for extremists.''

Why not? aren't they entitled to expect that we control ours?

MrJones

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

But actually, white Londoners voted UKIP at the same rates as the rest of the country.

London has much more immigration than the rest of the country, so your theory would predict them voting UKIP at much higher rates.

No it wouldn't.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

On Juncker: we all knew it was coming. Not great for Cameron. Could be worse, though.

Socrates

Juncker confirmed. What a disaster. For the next decade we have an arch-federalist, an open liar, an incompetent mismanager of the Euro crisis and a drunk as head of the EU. The EU chose a man it knew was wrong for the job because fellow EU leaders couldn't be seen to side with Cameron. They really have utter contempt for this country.

dyedwoolie

taffys said:

''Eh, I don't like the sort of collective blame angle of it being moderate muslims responsible for extremists.''

Why not? aren't they entitled to expect that we control ours?

Not really. Internal control leads to externalisation of the extremism.
Peace for Mecca, planes for New York
Or
Harmony in Europe and bombs in Iraq

dyedwoolie

Europe declares war on the UK.
We all know who wins this shit.

AndyJS

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

But actually, white Londoners voted UKIP at the same rates as the rest of the country.

London has much more immigration than the rest of the country, so your theory would predict them voting UKIP at much higher rates.

UKIP do worse with the highly educated, so that would counter the higher immigration rates.

isam

The only way for immigrants to assimilate is to control the numbers... no one did, they were all too scared of being called nasty names by lefty handwringers, and now we are left to deal with the consequences

edmundintokyo

Socrates said:

Juncker confirmed. What a disaster. For the next decade we have an arch-federalist, an open liar, an incompetent mismanager of the Euro crisis and a drunk as head of the EU. The EU chose a man it knew was wrong for the job because fellow EU leaders couldn't be seen to side with Cameron. They really have utter contempt for this country.

Not necessarily a decade, it depends on the next election result.

MarqueeMark

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On the top two issues Labour are behind the Conservatives. Does anyone know how Labour polling on the 3rd issue, unemployment, compares to that for the Conservatives?

The Coalition has a great position to sell to the voters on employment. Work for the workers. Whereas Labour - always leaves offices with unemployment higher than it inherited.

I expect the specific constituency employment stats to be used in candidate literature. What response does Labour have? might make the different in a few constituencies - will try and look at it nearer the election for any hints where employment has risen sharply.

TGOHF

Was there a vote on Drunker ?

Edit - 26-2 was the score.

TGOHF

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10930987/Juncker-named-as-European-Commission-president-as-Cameron-warns-EU-could-regret-it.html

"Mr Juncker was confirmed as the official nominee at the end of a tense lunch in Brussels during which Mr Cameron told EU leaders they could “live to regret” their decision.

"This is a sad day for Europe," Mr Cameron is understood to have told his counterparts."

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, I heard that the father of two lunatics who featured in the latest offering from ISIS' PR division blame the police in Wales for not engaging enough (or similar) with Muslims.

Hmm. Motes and beams spring to mind. If a father can't know of or dissuade his children from such madness then it's unreasonable to expect the police to know his children better than he does.

Richard_Nabavi

TGOHF said:

"Mr Juncker was confirmed as the official nominee at the end of a tense lunch in Brussels during which Mr Cameron told EU leaders they could “live to regret” their decision.."

They'll rue the day!

dyedwoolie

AndyJS said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

But actually, white Londoners voted UKIP at the same rates as the rest of the country.

London has much more immigration than the rest of the country, so your theory would predict them voting UKIP at much higher rates.

UKIP do worse with the highly educated, so that would counter the higher immigration rates.

I didn't realise the barrow boys were highly educated! You learn something new every day. Must be why us country thickos aren't Londoners

AndyJS

dyedwoolie said:

Europe declares war on the UK.
We all know who wins this shit.

What scares me slighly is the utter uniformity from the other countries apart from the UK and Hungary. You'd think there'd be a slightly wider range of opinion from so many nations.

Morris_Dancer

At the risk of sounding 50 years older than I am, I wonder if UKIP will use Juncker/Junker [apologies if I misspelt the latter, the Second World War's a bit before my time] name and imagery to campaign against him/the EU.

Wasn't he involved in the conception of the single currency?

isam

dyedwoolie said:

AndyJS said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

But actually, white Londoners voted UKIP at the same rates as the rest of the country.

London has much more immigration than the rest of the country, so your theory would predict them voting UKIP at much higher rates.

UKIP do worse with the highly educated, so that would counter the higher immigration rates.

I didn't realise the barrow boys were highly educated! You learn something new every day. Must be why us country thickos aren't Londoners

tim used to put it well,

"Tower Hamlets Schools are better because the thick white racists have left London"

Worked in Birmingham too

dyedwoolie

TGOHF said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10930987/Juncker-named-as-European-Commission-president-as-Cameron-warns-EU-could-regret-it.html

"Mr Juncker was confirmed as the official nominee at the end of a tense lunch in Brussels during which Mr Cameron told EU leaders they could “live to regret” their decision.

"This is a sad day for Europe," Mr Cameron is understood to have told his counterparts."

Mr Juncker is reported to have told the 26 who voted for him that they were his best mate