I have a feeling this is going to be UKIP's 'Crosby moment'...
So who is the upper-middle class Tory sounding, Labour renouncing, photogenic Catholic woman appealing to a Catholic population?
Different seat, different times.
But Helmer has the mo'.
I wouldn't be surprised if the independent folks of Newark prefer UKIP's mustachioed Gerald Nabarro lookalike over the Tory who looks like he's just left the sixth form...
Why not? It might only be for a year anyhow. Would put the town on the map...
'I said here a year or two ago that Continental interest in Cameron's posturing was exhausted. They'll give us anything that they don't care about, and that's it'
They must be praying Ed wins next year and then they can do whatever they want for the next 5 years. .
Possibly. Not that I think they care politically whether Ed or Cameron win, but if Cameron does his people will bang on about the issue a lot more even if Ed will be forced to make the occasional anti-EU comments to try and address what people actually feel about the EU without actually doing so.
Once again, very, very few people care about Europe. Survey after survey shows it is not a salient issue - those who do care, care very much - but they are in a tiny minority
I have a feeling this is going to be UKIP's 'Crosby moment'...
So who is the upper-middle class Tory sounding, Labour renouncing, photogenic Catholic woman appealing to a Catholic population?
Different seat, different times.
But Helmer has the mo'.
I wouldn't be surprised if the independent folks of Newark prefer UKIP's mustachioed Gerald Nabarro lookalike over the Tory who looks like he's just left the sixth form...
Why not? It might only be for a year anyhow. Would put the town on the map...
I have a feeling this is going to be UKIP's 'Crosby moment'...
So who is the upper-middle class Tory sounding, Labour renouncing, photogenic Catholic woman appealing to a Catholic population?
Why not? It might only be for a year anyhow. Would put the town on the map...
Quite.There's very little harm that could come to the place even if Helmer were a total embarrassment and/or a terrible local representative given the short time frame. There's certainly scope for those who just want to give any government a kicking to outnumber those genuinely concerned at the impact on Cameron and the Tories from a UKIP victory (both of which added to the base vote)
I was firmly in favour of fracking myself (who wouldn't be), till I researched it a little more and found that the success story of US fracking has been grossly exaggerated, with massive depletion rates and the oil companies getting badly burned. This article is long but worth it: http://nsnbc.me/2014/03/13/fracked-usa-shale-gas-bubble/
I believe that the geology in the States is quite different and UK frackers will find fewer worthwhile sites. So don't prejudge the UK situation.
Surely finding fewer sites would make the returns even lower? Unless they were fewer sites but of higher yield. However, the point of the article is a general one that you get a big hit when you first frack, but that depletion is such that you need to keep investing more and more for ever decreasing amounts of gas. That doesn't sound like a great prospect, but yes, of course we must keep an open mind.
If there is no Newark poll in the Sunday papers (and it's looking that way) then that is very, very good news for the Conservatives.
They were dead lucky that Survation had UKIP and Lab almost tied so that poll would not have induced tactical voting.
It's very unusual for any polls to come out on Sunday night so looks as if the next Newark poll is Ashcroft at Monday 4pm - which is getting pretty late to induce a lot of tactical voting as it takes time for such a message to feed through to Joe Public.
Plus of course all the postals will already be in.
If Con do win narrowly I am in no doubt it will be because of the lack of polls. A couple of polls at least a week before polling day with UKIP well clear of Lab would have been fatal for Con.
Labour could refuse to vote for the dissolution and take over the government for a while
Twaddle. Unelected parties can't just 'take over'. The would mean in effect that the Queen, through royal appointment, was unilaterally picking the government. It would be a constitutional outrage and Her Majesty would never be permitted to be embarrassed in such a way.
The Queen could not dissolve Parliament if there were not enough votes for the Dissolution resolution. That would be a constitutional outrage. Labour could form a minority government and the Opposition could vote them out through a no confidence motion.
I am not saying it will happen though.
This was actually mooted during the first Gulf War when Maggie was ousted. The 'thought' went that as we were at war and the Tories were in disarray could HM appoint Kinnock as prime minister for the good of the nation? The answer was that the monarch would have no part in such a grubby ruse to usurp the will of the electorate, nor should she be embarrassed by being asked to.
This pompous, obsequious language adopted by some to the Queen drives me further and further away from the monarchy, as I get older. "Nor should she be embarrassed" etc.
I heard Jacob Rees-Mogg snivelling on HIGNFY's Odd One Out round the other day that "I wouldn't be so rude to call Her Majesty odd".
The Queen is lovely. But you do realise she was born into it? She isn't a deity. She wees and poos like the rest of us.
'I said here a year or two ago that Continental interest in Cameron's posturing was exhausted. They'll give us anything that they don't care about, and that's it'
They must be praying Ed wins next year and then they can do whatever they want for the next 5 years. .
Possibly. Not that I think they care politically whether Ed or Cameron win, but if Cameron does his people will bang on about the issue a lot more even if Ed will be forced to make the occasional anti-EU comments to try and address what people actually feel about the EU without actually doing so.
Once again, very, very few people care about Europe. Survey after survey shows it is not a salient issue - those who do care, care very much - but they are in a tiny minority
That's why I said occasional. Most people do not like the EU, though fewer want to actually leave, but almost all are not passionate about it, as you point out. Reminding people every now and again that the EU is a bit crap in certain ways, is enough for most people.
I have a feeling this is going to be UKIP's 'Crosby moment'...
So who is the upper-middle class Tory sounding, Labour renouncing, photogenic Catholic woman appealing to a Catholic population?
Different seat, different times.
But Helmer has the mo'.
I wouldn't be surprised if the independent folks of Newark prefer UKIP's mustachioed Gerald Nabarro lookalike over the Tory who looks like he's just left the sixth form...
Why not? It might only be for a year anyhow. Would put the town on the map...
If David Davis pulled a stunt like that, he really would effectively be ending his career as a Conservative politician altogether. The fact that Davis has never been invited back to the Conservative front bench since he resigned as Shadow Home Secretary and caused that by-election in his own seat should tell you that Cameron wouldn't think twice about deselecting him. Theresa May has also proved to be a far more able and effective Tory Home Secretary than David Davis would have ever been, so Cameron certainly made the right judgement call on this oneave dare deselect him?
David Davis' resignation in 2008 forced the Conservatives to maintain their opposition to 42 days detention when Cameron was wavering. He was ultimately instrumental in seeing that pernicious piece of authoritarianism defeated. The reason that arch-loyalists like yourself dislike Davis so much is that (1) unlike the leadership of the Conservative Party, he has some principles, and (2) he is prepared to put those principles above personal ambition.
Strong on civil liberties, eurosceptic, firm on law and order, understands working class people, a self-made man. I'm pretty sure UKIP wouldn't have emerged if Davis had been in charge.
You're probably right.
With Gordon Brown as Prime Minister at the moment, their focus would be on the fight for the soul of the Tory party.
This is absurd. UKIP have shown how many Labour votes were ripe for the taking. A principled, working class Tory could clearly have won them over.
Provide evidence, rather than mere assertion, and I may engage on the topic.
Charles
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Nabaro's moustache was unmistakable! ......Well mostly...
"The press had a field day. The cartoonist JAK, in the Evening Standard, depicted a police line up of young women, one with a handlebar moustache. The case came to court, the jury disbelieved Nabarro, the judge pronounced his behaviour "outrageous" and fined him £250. Stoutly proclaiming his innocence on his honour as an MP, he went to appeal. "
Labour could refuse to vote for the dissolution and take over the government for a while
Twaddle. Unelected parties can't just 'take over'. The would mean in effect that the Queen, through royal appointment, was unilaterally picking the government. It would be a constitutional outrage and Her Majesty would never be permitted to be embarrassed in such a way.
The Queen could not dissolve Parliament if there were not enough votes for the Dissolution resolution. That would be a constitutional outrage. Labour could form a minority government and the Opposition could vote them out through a no confidence motion.
I am not saying it will happen though.
This was actually mooted during the first Gulf War when Maggie was ousted. The 'thought' went that as we were at war and the Tories were in disarray could HM appoint Kinnock as prime minister for the good of the nation? The answer was that the monarch would have no part in such a grubby ruse to usurp the will of the electorate, nor should she be embarrassed by being asked to.
This pompous, obsequious language adopted by some to the Queen drives me further and further away from the monarchy, as I get older. "Nor should she be embarrassed" etc.
I heard Jacob Rees-Mogg snivelling on HIGNFY's Odd One Out round the other day that "I wouldn't be so rude to call Her Majesty odd".
The Queen is lovely. But you do realise she was born into it? She isn't a deity. She wees and poos like the rest of us.
My gods, I think no monarchist had ever realised that, thank you. Not embarrassing the head of state is pretty important if the position is to remain politically neutral and thus accessible to everyone who is not a republican, which of course is one of the whole points of having an unelected but powerless head of state as opposed to one with power or elected but with no power. It's not really obsequiousness, but recognition of political pragmatism in keeping the position free from the grubby day to day poltical reality.
As for Rees-Mogg, I highly doubt he was snivelling in a genuine way. He is a posh, sort of weird person (or at least comes across that way), and he quite clearly plays that up even more for things like HIGNFY and over deference is probably a part of that.
This comment by MRNAMELESS at UKPR is also worth mentioning:
"The Tories bussed in a lot of campaigners from London who we kept seeing but they don’t seem to have made too much impression – not many people saying Tory on the doorstep, certainly more UKIP."
A bunch of London Spads and PPEs fckwits are not likely to impress anyone other than themselves. On the contrary they are part of the reason why UKIP has picked up support.
I have a feeling this is going to be UKIP's 'Crosby moment'...
So who is the upper-middle class Tory sounding, Labour renouncing, photogenic Catholic woman appealing to a Catholic population?
Different seat, different times.
But Helmer has the mo'.
I wouldn't be surprised if the independent folks of Newark prefer UKIP's mustachioed Gerald Nabarro lookalike over the Tory who looks like he's just left the sixth form...
Why not? It might only be for a year anyhow. Would put the town on the map...
This comment by MRNAMELESS at UKPR is also worth mentioning:
"The Tories bussed in a lot of campaigners from London who we kept seeing but they don’t seem to have made too much impression – not many people saying Tory on the doorstep, certainly more UKIP."
A bunch of London Spads and PPEs fckwits are not likely to impress anyone other than themselves. On the contrary they are part of the reason why UKIP has picked up support.
They bussed in as many if not more from Manchester, York and points north.
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
If David Davis pulled a stunt like that, he really would effectively be ending his career as a Conservative politician altogether. The fact that Davis has never been invited back to the Conservative front bench since he resigned as Shadow Home Secretary and caused that by-election in his own seat should tell you that Cameron wouldn't think twice about deselecting him. Theresa May has also proved to be a far more able and effective Tory Home Secretary than David Davis would have ever been, so Cameron certainly made the right judgement call on this oneave dare deselect him?
David Davis' resignation in 2008 forced the Conservatives to maintain their opposition to 42 days detention when Cameron was wavering. He was ultimately instrumental in seeing that pernicious piece of authoritarianism defeated. The reason that arch-loyalists like yourself dislike Davis so much is that (1) unlike the leadership of the Conservative Party, he has some principles, and (2) he is prepared to put those principles above personal ambition.
Strong on civil liberties, eurosceptic, firm on law and order, understands working class people, a self-made man. I'm pretty sure UKIP wouldn't have emerged if Davis had been in charge.
You're probably right.
With Gordon Brown as Prime Minister at the moment, their focus would be on the fight for the soul of the Tory party.
This is absurd. UKIP have shown how many Labour votes were ripe for the taking. A principled, working class Tory could clearly have won them over.
Provide evidence, rather than mere assertion, and I may engage on the topic.
Charles
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Cameroons don't attempt to persuade, ar.
They are the officer class. They give orders.
And if that doesn't return a thumping Tory majority in Newark next Thursday I shall eat my entire collection of Maison du Chocolat Truffle Collection in a single sitting.
Not sure where you get the idea that locals in Newark are concerned about fracking. For a start Newark has been the centre of an oilfield for longer than anywhere else in Britain. There are 3000 oil wells within 30 miles of Newark.
Is there really that many oil wells around Newark ? Does each one have its own 'nodding donkey' ?
I've seen a few in the area but would never have expected that many. I imagine that they tend to be hidden for environmental purposes.
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
Having a load of Conservatives on my twitter feed, I do not think 600 would be an unreasonable number. There were a whole load of MP's there today who were not on the photo. As has been said, many would have been out canvassing and visited at different points of the day.
Helmer drives a British Racing Green Jaguar btw. The Jeremy Clarkson stereotype lives on.
I have a feeling this is going to be UKIP's 'Crosby moment'...
So who is the upper-middle class Tory sounding, Labour renouncing, photogenic Catholic woman appealing to a Catholic population?
Different seat, different times.
But Helmer has the mo'.
I wouldn't be surprised if the independent folks of Newark prefer UKIP's mustachioed Gerald Nabarro lookalike over the Tory who looks like he's just left the sixth form...
Why not? It might only be for a year anyhow. Would put the town on the map...
And if that doesn't return a thumping Tory majority in Newark next Thursday I shall eat my entire collection of Maison du Chocolat Truffle Collection in a single sitting.
Labour could refuse to vote for the dissolution and take over the government for a while
Twaddle. Unelected parties can't just 'take over'. The would mean in effect that the Queen, through royal appointment, was unilaterally picking the government. It would be a constitutional outrage and Her Majesty would never be permitted to be embarrassed in such a way.
The Queen could not dissolve Parliament if there were not enough votes for the Dissolution resolution. That would be a constitutional outrage. Labour could form a minority government and the Opposition could vote them out through a no confidence motion.
I am not saying it will happen though.
This was actually mooted during the first Gulf War when Maggie was ousted. The 'thought' went that as we were at war and the Tories were in disarray could HM appoint Kinnock as prime minister for the good of the nation? The answer was that the monarch would have no part in such a grubby ruse to usurp the will of the electorate, nor should she be embarrassed by being asked to.
This pompous, obsequious language adopted by some to the Queen drives me further and further away from the monarchy, as I get older. "Nor should she be embarrassed" etc.
I heard Jacob Rees-Mogg snivelling on HIGNFY's Odd One Out round the other day that "I wouldn't be so rude to call Her Majesty odd".
The Queen is lovely. But you do realise she was born into it? She isn't a deity. She wees and poos like the rest of us.
Enough.
Calm down. I was just pointing out that our constitutional understand means that the monarch shouldn't be put in the embarrassing situation of having to meddle in political matters. I regard that as uncontroversial.
Not sure where you get the idea that locals in Newark are concerned about fracking. For a start Newark has been the centre of an oilfield for longer than anywhere else in Britain. There are 3000 oil wells within 30 miles of Newark.
Is there really that many oil wells around Newark ? Does each one have its own 'nodding donkey' ?
I've seen a few in the area but would never have expected that many. I imagine that they tend to be hidden for environmental purposes.
ar
I think you'll find all the nodding donkeys had been moved to Kelham Hall for the afternoon.
That is why they may have been scarce on the ground in Newark's environs.
Does "sensible cooperation" with our EU partners include giving up our rebate for nothing but empty promises?
Sorry, thought you were being rhetorical rather than seeking information. No, not a good idea to give up anything for empty promises.
So why did you support the government that regarded such an approach as sensible?
You're still sounding rhetorical rather than seeking information. :-)
Well, you were criticising Cameron for being a squeaky wheel rather than "sensibly cooperating". Just want to understand what you would give up and what you want in return
And if that doesn't return a thumping Tory majority in Newark next Thursday I shall eat my entire collection of Maison du Chocolat Truffle Collection in a single sitting.
Having a load of Conservatives on my twitter feed, I do not think 600 would be an unreasonable number. There were a whole load of MP's there today who were not on the photo. As has been said, many would have been out canvassing and visited at different points of the day.
Helmer drives a British Racing Green Jaguar btw. The Jeremy Clarkson stereotype lives on.
Better than Alan Clark's brother who drove a gold Rolls Royce.
A colour which Alan referred to in his diaries as "jewish racing yellow".
[P.S, You can add this to my list of transgressions, ar]
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
I was thinking more of the Tutonic one, rather than a third rate "smoke and mirrors" magician. But feel free to tell me how England won World War two. I need cheering up.
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
I'm sure about it because of years of studying and talking about it.
Take at look at the constituency threads at UKPR for the last seven years if you want evidence.
Likewise there are PBers who will confirm that I was saying how aggravated the wwc were and how weak Labour's traditional support among them was before the recession even started.
Have you ever considered that the voters who decide general elections are rather more like David Davis than your own good self ?
Now we can have pointless hypothetical arguments about whether a different Conservative leader would have done better among the wwc. But one thing we do know is that Cameron did far WORSE than expected among those demographics he targeted and which were loudly predicted by his cheerleaders to be flocking to him.
So with you Cameroons proving to WRONG about the things you were supposed to know about (and which incidentally I was proved RIGHT about) I will assume that I would have been proved RIGHT about the things I do know about and that you would have been proved WRONG about the thing you don't know about ie that the Conservatives could have done significantly better among the wwc.
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
The files expose how Qatar’s astonishing victory in the race to secure the right to host the 2022 tournament was sealed by a covert campaign by Mohamed bin Hammam, the country’s top football official.
The Qatari vice-president of Fifa, the governing body of world football, used secret slush funds to make dozens of payments totalling more than $5m to senior football officials to create a groundswell of support for Qatar’s plan to take world football by storm.
This weekend and over the coming weeks this newspaper will expose how Bin Hammam exploited his position at the heart of world football to help to secure from the key members of Fifa’s 24-man ruling committee the votes that Qatar needed to win.
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
The files expose how Qatar’s astonishing victory in the race to secure the right to host the 2022 tournament was sealed by a covert campaign by Mohamed bin Hammam, the country’s top football official.
The Qatari vice-president of Fifa, the governing body of world football, used secret slush funds to make dozens of payments totalling more than $5m to senior football officials to create a groundswell of support for Qatar’s plan to take world football by storm.
This weekend and over the coming weeks this newspaper will expose how Bin Hammam exploited his position at the heart of world football to help to secure from the key members of Fifa’s 24-man ruling committee the votes that Qatar needed to win.
I presume there are rules that prohibt betting firms from offering odds on when evidence of bribery in such matters would come to light, otherwise a lot of people would, ironically, have had money on that.
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
The files expose how Qatar’s astonishing victory in the race to secure the right to host the 2022 tournament was sealed by a covert campaign by Mohamed bin Hammam, the country’s top football official.
The Qatari vice-president of Fifa, the governing body of world football, used secret slush funds to make dozens of payments totalling more than $5m to senior football officials to create a groundswell of support for Qatar’s plan to take world football by storm.
This weekend and over the coming weeks this newspaper will expose how Bin Hammam exploited his position at the heart of world football to help to secure from the key members of Fifa’s 24-man ruling committee the votes that Qatar needed to win.
They took so long to finish counting that I was able to input all the local election results from the rest of the country and ended up waiting for the final Tower Hamlets result in Bromley South.
And if that doesn't return a thumping Tory majority in Newark next Thursday I shall eat my entire collection of Maison du Chocolat Truffle Collection in a single sitting.
I was thinking more of the Tutonic one, rather than a third rate "smoke and mirrors" magician. But feel free to tell me how England won World War two. I need cheering up.
I'm sure about it because of years of studying and talking about it.
Take at look at the constituency threads at UKPR for the last seven years if you want evidence.
Likewise there are PBers who will confirm that I was saying how aggravated the wwc were and how weak Labour's traditional support among them was before the recession even started.
Have you ever considered that the voters who decide general elections are rather more like David Davis than your own good self ?
Now we can have pointless hypothetical arguments about whether a different Conservative leader would have done better among the wwc. But one thing we do know is that Cameron did far WORSE than expected among those demographics he targeted and which were loudly predicted by his cheerleaders to be flocking to him.
So with you Cameroons proving to WRONG about the things you were supposed to know about (and which incidentally I was proved RIGHT about) I will assume that I would have been proved RIGHT about the things I do know about and that you would have been proved WRONG about the thing you don't know about ie that the Conservatives could have done significantly better among the wwc.
Defensive too ;-)
I am not a Cameroon - I don't like the man (partly based on my limited interaction, but also because my mother - who is a very good judge of character - has taken strongly against him). I voted for him because he was better than DD. In my vie - as I have said on many occasions - the Tories should be the party of the SME, the entrepreneur, the skilled worker and the aspirational.
For me they should focus on winning the midlands and the market towns in the north. I doubt that they will ever make that much headway in the industrial areas of the North of the urban metropolises (although they shouldn't abandon them, either).
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
The files expose how Qatar’s astonishing victory in the race to secure the right to host the 2022 tournament was sealed by a covert campaign by Mohamed bin Hammam, the country’s top football official.
The Qatari vice-president of Fifa, the governing body of world football, used secret slush funds to make dozens of payments totalling more than $5m to senior football officials to create a groundswell of support for Qatar’s plan to take world football by storm.
This weekend and over the coming weeks this newspaper will expose how Bin Hammam exploited his position at the heart of world football to help to secure from the key members of Fifa’s 24-man ruling committee the votes that Qatar needed to win.
I presume there are rules that prohibt betting firms from offering odds on when evidence of bribery in such matters would come to light, otherwise a lot of people would, ironically, have had money on that.
Yeah, there are rules, bookies aren't allowed to bet on the outcomes of legal/police matters in the countries they operate in.
Can you imagine if you were on trial, and the jury would make more money on you being found guilty than being found innocent.
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
I flew via Qatar when I travelled to India last month - unfortunately the new Hamad International Airport was still a few weeks away from completion so had to change planes at the original Doha Airport.
Not sure where you get the idea that locals in Newark are concerned about fracking. For a start Newark has been the centre of an oilfield for longer than anywhere else in Britain. There are 3000 oil wells within 30 miles of Newark.
Is there really that many oil wells around Newark ? Does each one have its own 'nodding donkey' ?
I've seen a few in the area but would never have expected that many. I imagine that they tend to be hidden for environmental purposes.
Yep. They started drilling them in WW2 with the help of volunteer US oilmen who broke the embargo on exporting oil technology to Europe in order to help the British before the US entered the war. Welton near Lincoln is the second largest onshore oilfield in Britain after Wytch Farm and the oil fields spread down from Lincolnshire through Nottinghamshire and into Leicestershire. Many of the wells are now abandoned but there are still plenty of nodding donkeys hidden away in the corners of fields across the county.
Not sure where you get the idea that locals in Newark are concerned about fracking. For a start Newark has been the centre of an oilfield for longer than anywhere else in Britain. There are 3000 oil wells within 30 miles of Newark.
Is there really that many oil wells around Newark ? Does each one have its own 'nodding donkey' ?
I've seen a few in the area but would never have expected that many. I imagine that they tend to be hidden for environmental purposes.
ar
I think you'll find all the nodding donkeys had been moved to Kelham Hall for the afternoon.
That is why they may have been scarce on the ground in Newark's environs.
Whilst the Tory sheep were wandering the fields looking lost (as usual)
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
Cameron managed to throw away a 20 point lead only months before the election. He was and is bloody useless.
That was never a solid lead; was partly sacrificed by the need to win a mandate for austerity, was partly lost to the Cleggasm, and was partly lost to a great Mandelson campaign and a piss-poor Tory one.
But he won nearly 100 seats - one of the best performances by an opposition in recent history.
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
I flew via Qatar when I travelled to India last month - unfortunately the new Hamad International Airport was still a few weeks away from completion so had to change planes at the original Doha Airport.
I've been to Qatar a few times in the last couple of years. Bloody hot
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
Cameron managed to throw away a 20 point lead only months before the election. He was and is bloody useless.
That was never a solid lead; was partly sacrificed by the need to win a mandate for austerity, was partly lost to the Cleggasm, and was partly lost to a great Mandelson campaign and a piss-poor Tory one.
But he won nearly 100 seats - one of the best performances by an opposition in recent history.
Nope. It was lost long before the Cleggasm even began to appear and long before the campaigns started in earnest. It was all down to his ability to make himself look just as dishonest and shifty as the rest of the political class when he abandoned his 'Cast Iron' pledge. .
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
A comment from myself at UKPR, it could be used to explain the 'surprise' UKIP vote in traditional Labour heartlands last week:
" Derbyshire NE, Rother Valley, Don Valley, Bassetlaw and Penistone/Stocksbridge have near identical social makeups and election results.
They have a number of characteristics that could bode well for the Conservatives in future: Extremely white, very few students, no extremes in wealth, socially conservative, distrust of London and Europe, good motorway communications leading to new commuter developments, formerly dominated by old-labour industry (coal) but no longer, discredited local Labour party. With the right sort of leader (David Davis would be better in these areas than David Cameron) and Rosindell style local candidates the Conservatives would have great potential.
This may sound far-fetched but how many people would have predicted only 10 years ago that the Republicans could win West Virginia (by 15% no less) whilst losing New Hampshire.
This could also apply to the four Labour constituencies in Cumbria.
July 11th, 2007 at 9:41 pm "
Notice the date, its from the period when the media were eulogising Brown and Cameron thought Southall a better target than Sedgefield.
Tell us Charles what were you expecting back in the summer of 2007 ?
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
Cameron managed to throw away a 20 point lead only months before the election. He was and is bloody useless.
That was never a solid lead; was partly sacrificed by the need to win a mandate for austerity, was partly lost to the Cleggasm, and was partly lost to a great Mandelson campaign and a piss-poor Tory one.
But he won nearly 100 seats - one of the best performances by an opposition in recent history.
Nope. It was lost long before the Cleggasm even began to appear and long before the campaigns started in earnest. It was all down to his ability to make himself look just as dishonest and shifty as the rest of the political class when he abandoned his 'Cast Iron' pledge. .
"But Sweden’s Fredrik Reinfeldt, Hungary’s Viktor Orban and, according to several European sources, the Netherlands’ Mark Rutte and Finland’s Jyrki Katainen, have also expressed their opposition to Mr Juncker."
This is Cameron's entire coalition. If they can't stop Juncker despite everyone being on board, I don't believe they will ever achieve anything.
Depending how long they stall they probably can't count on Katainen, since he's be resigning this month. apparently to try to get Juncker's job...
To which Merkel apparently says "Yeah, whatever." I said here a year or two ago that Continental interest in Cameron's posturing was exhausted. They'll give us anything that they don't care about, and that's it.
And you wish to stay in the EU on this basis?
No, I want a British government that cooperates sensibly and doesn't wind up its natural allies for perceived domestic advantage. Sadly tim isn't here to note that it started with the Latvian homophobes...
So the UK Prime Minister trying to influence the choice for the President of the Commission is "winding up natural allies for perceived domestic advantage". As we have noted, the UK's natural allies - all those economically liberal Northern European nations that have some reservations about a USE - are on Cameron's side. Yet you oppose even this. What, pray, is the UK allowed to have a fight about, in your opinion? I've yet to hear you voice a single case in the European Union where you haven't believed we should just accept the Franco-German position.
As for Latvian homophobes, I prefer them to the terrorist supporters in the Party of European Socalists. How do you get sitting with such awful people past in the European Parliament past your conscience?
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
I flew via Qatar when I travelled to India last month - unfortunately the new Hamad International Airport was still a few weeks away from completion so had to change planes at the original Doha Airport.
I've been to Qatar a few times in the last couple of years. Bloody hot
Er, yes! Had to transfer between terminal and aircraft by bus so I did feel the heat - it was 35 degrees on May 16th, roughly the same as in Kerala during my stay there.
When you look like me, I get worried by stories like this,
Uh-Oh, the party of British Jobs for British Workers is being told it must take tougher line on 'mass migration' from Europe, Miliband told
Ed Miliband is facing a backbench revolt over immigration policy as senior Labour MPs publicly warn of catastrophic consequences for the party unless he seeks constraints on the free movement of EU workers.
The unrestricted entry of EU citizens from eastern Europe since 2004 is hurting the "very communities that the Labour party was founded to represent", the MPs claim in an open letter published in the Observer.
Miliband is urged by the rebels, including two former ministers, to commit a Labour government to seeking to constrain the free movement of labour from European countries with much lower incomes than the UK, such as Romania and Bulgaria. Two million national insurance numbers have been issued to nationals from eastern European accession countries since 2004.
That was never a solid lead; was partly sacrificed by the need to win a mandate for austerity, was partly lost to the Cleggasm, and was partly lost to a great Mandelson campaign and a piss-poor Tory one.
So Labour's campaign in 2010 was 'great' was it ?
Brown's trip to Rochdale obviously being some masterstroke beyond the understanding of ordinary people.
The reality was Labour's campaign was crap and the Conservative campaign was crap.
The Cleggasm came about as a response to this crapness of the two main parties.
People wanted change and for a few brief days Clegg seemed to be the route to it. But after than the more people saw of Clegg the more the doubts grew, hence the LibDems falling away during the final week.
@AveryLP Already corrected it Limp Pole, but I award you a medal for pedantry above and beyond the call of duty. You can wear it as you sneer at those that won the "real ones"
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
I flew via Qatar when I travelled to India last month - unfortunately the new Hamad International Airport was still a few weeks away from completion so had to change planes at the original Doha Airport.
I've been to Qatar a few times in the last couple of years. Bloody hot
Er, yes! Had to transfer between terminal and aircraft by bus so I did feel the heat - it was 35 degrees on May 16th, roughly the same as in Kerala during my stay there.
That was never a solid lead; was partly sacrificed by the need to win a mandate for austerity, was partly lost to the Cleggasm, and was partly lost to a great Mandelson campaign and a piss-poor Tory one.
So Labour's campaign in 2010 was 'great' was it ?
Brown's trip to Rochdale obviously being some masterstroke beyond the understanding of ordinary people.
The reality was Labour's campaign was crap and the Conservative campaign was crap.
The Cleggasm came about as a response to this crapness of the two main parties.
People wanted change and for a few brief days Clegg seemed to be the route to it. But after than the more people saw of Clegg the more the doubts grew, hence the LibDems falling away during the final week.
I should have been more precise. Oh look. I was. Labour's campaign was crap. Mandleson's campaign was great - persuading enough people that the Tories would take away their benefits / tax credits etc to deny the Tories a number of key seats.
I'm sure about it because of years of studying and talking about it.
Take at look at the constituency threads at UKPR for the last seven years if you want evidence.
Likewise there are PBers who will confirm that I was saying how aggravated the wwc were and how weak Labour's traditional support among them was before the recession even started.
Have you ever considered that the voters who decide general elections are rather more like David Davis than your own good self ?
Now we can have pointless hypothetical arguments about whether a different Conservative leader would have done better among the wwc. But one thing we do know is that Cameron did far WORSE than expected among those demographics he targeted and which were loudly predicted by his cheerleaders to be flocking to him.
So with you Cameroons proving to WRONG about the things you were supposed to know about (and which incidentally I was proved RIGHT about) I will assume that I would have been proved RIGHT about the things I do know about and that you would have been proved WRONG about the thing you don't know about ie that the Conservatives could have done significantly better among the wwc.
Defensive too ;-)
I am not a Cameroon - I don't like the man (partly based on my limited interaction, but also because my mother - who is a very good judge of character - has taken strongly against him). I voted for him because he was better than DD. In my vie - as I have said on many occasions - the Tories should be the party of the SME, the entrepreneur, the skilled worker and the aspirational.
For me they should focus on winning the midlands and the market towns in the north. I doubt that they will ever make that much headway in the industrial areas of the North of the urban metropolises (although they shouldn't abandon them, either).
Spot on there, Mr. Charles, spot on on all points. Going after the skilled and semi-skilled working class and tieing them in with the people with the serious money (and ignoring the Guardianista middle class who will never, ever vote Conservative) was of course Disraeli's one nation strategy. Too bad Cameron didn't read politics at Uni...
I shall also add your mum to my list of people who really should be listened to, though not necessarily agreed with, when it comes to politicians. Sunil's Mum is in the same category, even if she does tell him off for reading this site at the supper table.
@AveryLP Already corrected it Limp Pole, but I award you a medal for pedantry above and beyond the call of duty. You can wear it as you sneer at those that won the "real ones"
It did occur during his misspent Liberal youth, Smarmy.
When you look like me, I get worried by stories like this,
Uh-Oh, the party of British Jobs for British Workers is being told it must take tougher line on 'mass migration' from Europe, Miliband told
Ed Miliband is facing a backbench revolt over immigration policy as senior Labour MPs publicly warn of catastrophic consequences for the party unless he seeks constraints on the free movement of EU workers.
The unrestricted entry of EU citizens from eastern Europe since 2004 is hurting the "very communities that the Labour party was founded to represent", the MPs claim in an open letter published in the Observer.
Miliband is urged by the rebels, including two former ministers, to commit a Labour government to seeking to constrain the free movement of labour from European countries with much lower incomes than the UK, such as Romania and Bulgaria. Two million national insurance numbers have been issued to nationals from eastern European accession countries since 2004.
A very stupid move. Labour are NEVER going to out-UKIP UKIP on immigration, and "talking about it more" just means you're encouraging the consensus that immigrants are the cause of all the country's problems - and if people really think immigration is the biggest problem that needs to be dealt with, they are NEVER going to turn to Labour for answers.
I hope Ed slaps down this suggestion quickly, but knowing him, he and Douglas Alexander will dither for weeks before eventually coming out with some weak triangulated split-the-difference mess. What they need to do is try to convince people that the reason life in this country is so shit is not because of immigrants, but because of greedy bosses thinking they can rip off their employees and don't have a responsibility to provide decent wages and conditions for them, greedy landlords and big multinationals who think their mission in life is to rip ordinary people off, and the super-rich who feel they don't have to pay their taxes and can sponge off the society the rest of us are paying for. If they get people thinking that they are the real enemies, then people will turn to Labour for answers. But people naturally want someone to blame for the country and their lives being ruined, and as long as left-wing parties are too scared to point the finger of blame at those elites, it's always going to be shameless right-wing populists who blame immigrants and benefit-claimants who fill the void.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 22 secs Just 13% think Clegg is doing a good job. 78% do not. Minus 65% rating is worse than Gordon Brown's minus 62 in depths of the crisis
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2 mins YouGov poll for Sunday Times reveals Nick Clegg now the least popular political elder in modern British history. Approval rating of minus 65
I'm sure about it because of years of studying and talking about it.
Take at look at the constituency threads at UKPR for the last seven years if you want evidence.
Likewise there are PBers who will confirm that I was saying how aggravated the wwc were and how weak Labour's traditional support among them was before the recession even started.
Have you ever considered that the voters who decide general elections are rather more like David Davis than your own good self ?
Now we can have pointless hypothetical arguments about whether a different Conservative leader would have done better among the wwc. But one thing we do know is that Cameron did far WORSE than expected among those demographics he targeted and which were loudly predicted by his cheerleaders to be flocking to him.
So with you Cameroons proving to WRONG about the things you were supposed to know about (and which incidentally I was proved RIGHT about) I will assume that I would have been proved RIGHT about the things I do know about and that you would have been proved WRONG about the thing you don't know about ie that the Conservatives could have done significantly better among the wwc.
Defensive too ;-)
I am not a Cameroon - I don't like the man (partly based on my limited interaction, but also because my mother - who is a very good judge of character - has taken strongly against him). I voted for him because he was better than DD. In my vie - as I have said on many occasions - the Tories should be the party of the SME, the entrepreneur, the skilled worker and the aspirational.
For me they should focus on winning the midlands and the market towns in the north. I doubt that they will ever make that much headway in the industrial areas of the North of the urban metropolises (although they shouldn't abandon them, either).
Spot on there, Mr. Charles, spot on on all points. Going after the skilled and semi-skilled working class and tieing them in with the people with the serious money (and ignoring the Guardianista middle class who will never, ever vote Conservative) was of course Disraeli's one nation strategy. Too bad Cameron didn't read politics at Uni...
I shall also add your mum to my list of people who really should be listened to, though not necessarily agreed with, when it comes to politicians. Sunil's Mum is in the same category, even if she does tell him off for reading this site at the supper table.
Yeeee Haaa
LLama man I'm just listening to Johnny Cash with my daughter,.
Sometimes you have to get your priorities right and politics sits below Johnny Cash.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 22 secs Just 13% think Clegg is doing a good job. 78% do not. Minus 65% rating is worse than Gordon Brown's minus 62 in depths of the crisis
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2 mins YouGov poll for Sunday Times reveals Nick Clegg now the least popular political elder in modern British history. Approval rating of minus 65
Isn't it almost exactly 4 years since he was the most popular party leader since Churchill? Politics is a funny beast sometimes...
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
Very sure of yourself, aren't you.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
Cameron managed to throw away a 20 point lead only months before the election. He was and is bloody useless.
That was never a solid lead; was partly sacrificed by the need to win a mandate for austerity, was partly lost to the Cleggasm, and was partly lost to a great Mandelson campaign and a piss-poor Tory one.
But he won nearly 100 seats - one of the best performances by an opposition in recent history.
Nope. It was lost long before the Cleggasm even began to appear and long before the campaigns started in earnest. It was all down to his ability to make himself look just as dishonest and shifty as the rest of the political class when he abandoned his 'Cast Iron' pledge. .
I'm sure about it because of years of studying and talking about it.
Take at look at the constituency threads at UKPR for the last seven years if you want evidence.
Likewise there are PBers who will confirm that I was saying how aggravated the wwc were and how weak Labour's traditional support among them was before the recession even started.
Have you ever considered that the voters who decide general elections are rather more like David Davis than your own good self ?
Now we can have pointless hypothetical arguments about whether a different Conservative leader would have done better among the wwc. But one thing we do know is that Cameron did far WORSE than expected among those demographics he targeted and which were loudly predicted by his cheerleaders to be flocking to him.
So with you Cameroons proving to WRONG about the things you were supposed to know about (and which incidentally I was proved RIGHT about) I will assume that I would have been proved RIGHT about the things I do know about and that you would have been proved WRONG about the thing you don't know about ie that the Conservatives could have done significantly better among the wwc.
Defensive too ;-)
I am not a Cameroon - I don't like the man (partly based on my limited interaction, but also because my mother - who is a very good judge of character - has taken strongly against him). I voted for him because he was better than DD. In my vie - as I have said on many occasions - the Tories should be the party of the SME, the entrepreneur, the skilled worker and the aspirational.
For me they should focus on winning the midlands and the market towns in the north. I doubt that they will ever make that much headway in the industrial areas of the North of the urban metropolises (although they shouldn't abandon them, either).
Spot on there, Mr. Charles, spot on on all points. Going after the skilled and semi-skilled working class and tieing them in with the people with the serious money (and ignoring the Guardianista middle class who will never, ever vote Conservative) was of course Disraeli's one nation strategy. Too bad Cameron didn't read politics at Uni...
I shall also add your mum to my list of people who really should be listened to, though not necessarily agreed with, when it comes to politicians. Sunil's Mum is in the same category, even if she does tell him off for reading this site at the supper table.
You need to be careful - she does like to stir.
One of her favourite stories was when she asked Richard Hilton to explain what his daughter actually did
It was "snowing" in Regent's Park in London today - but the "snow" was actually seeds from the Poplar tree!
Comrade, surely you have been to Moscow in May and June?
One of Stalin's big mistakes.
Summed up in this BBC correspondent's report from Moscow in 1998:
Nobody dared tell him [Josef] that poplars have sex lives - that every female needs a male. Plant too many females and the males can't fertilise them. Which is exactly what happened. Moscow has an enormous surfeit of sexually frustrated female poplars, which every June release a thick stream of unfertilised seeds into the atmosphere - in a word, pukh.
The Sunday Times has the story of the decade, although it won't surprise anyone.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
I flew via Qatar when I travelled to India last month - unfortunately the new Hamad International Airport was still a few weeks away from completion so had to change planes at the original Doha Airport.
I've been to Qatar a few times in the last couple of years. Bloody hot
Er, yes! Had to transfer between terminal and aircraft by bus so I did feel the heat - it was 35 degrees on May 16th, roughly the same as in Kerala during my stay there.
I had to do that in Dubai, although luckily it was 7 in the morning and not too hot.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1 min Lib Den activists tell S.Times they have begun no confidence proceedings in 190 constituency parties. only 75 needed to trigger election
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1 min Ukip have written to Ofcom demanding access for Farage to debates and equal air time as major party in general election. See Sunday Times
Comments
This photo only has 5 Tories in it. Clearly they were exaggerating the numbers...
Helmer has a wimpy, droopy, dodgy moustache.
Nabarro's was the real McCoy.
See here: http://bit.ly/1oHDPg6
Though I could see Helmer driving through Newark in a 1970s Triumph Dolomite with a registration plate of "HEL 10". Very gay.
Bale
They were dead lucky that Survation had UKIP and Lab almost tied so that poll would not have induced tactical voting.
It's very unusual for any polls to come out on Sunday night so looks as if the next Newark poll is Ashcroft at Monday 4pm - which is getting pretty late to induce a lot of tactical voting as it takes time for such a message to feed through to Joe Public.
Plus of course all the postals will already be in.
If Con do win narrowly I am in no doubt it will be because of the lack of polls. A couple of polls at least a week before polling day with UKIP well clear of Lab would have been fatal for Con.
I heard Jacob Rees-Mogg snivelling on HIGNFY's Odd One Out round the other day that "I wouldn't be so rude to call Her Majesty odd".
The Queen is lovely. But you do realise she was born into it? She isn't a deity. She wees and poos like the rest of us.
Enough.
I shall take a lie down.
If you're prepared to do five minutes of research at UKPR you'll see that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas throughout the country.
However in many of these the main beneficiary of this wasn't the Conservatives but UKIP, BNP or EDP.
It is almost certain that a working class Conservative leader emphasising working class issues would have picked up extra support in these areas.
Instead the 'Cameron Project' chose to target middle class leftists and metropolitan trendies as the key swing voters. The results in Hammersmith, Tooting, Hampstead, Eltham, Westminster North and similar places outside London show the failure of this strategy.
"The press had a field day. The cartoonist JAK, in the Evening Standard, depicted a police line up of young women, one with a handlebar moustache. The case came to court, the jury disbelieved Nabarro, the judge pronounced his behaviour "outrageous" and fined him £250. Stoutly proclaiming his innocence on his honour as an MP, he went to appeal. "
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/dec/27/hamiltonvalfayed.features11
As for Rees-Mogg, I highly doubt he was snivelling in a genuine way. He is a posh, sort of weird person (or at least comes across that way), and he quite clearly plays that up even more for things like HIGNFY and over deference is probably a part of that.
"The Tories bussed in a lot of campaigners from London who we kept seeing but they don’t seem to have made too much impression – not many people saying Tory on the doorstep, certainly more UKIP."
A bunch of London Spads and PPEs fckwits are not likely to impress anyone other than themselves. On the contrary they are part of the reason why UKIP has picked up support.
Have you considered joining UKIP so as to provide more ammunition to smear them.
You've just added a homophobia to your famous 'ragheads' comment.
I have never questioned - despite your implication - that the biggest falls in Labour support in 2010 was in wwc industrial areas.
What I do not believe is that a Conservative leader would have picked up meaningful extra support in these areas.
Cameron delivered nearly 100 extra seats for the Tories in 2010. It wasn't enough, but it was a damn good try. David Davis would gave been a disaster as leader of the party, which is why I voted against him.
That idiotic stunt of getting busty women to turn up at Conference wearing tight tee-shirts stating "it's DD for me" gives you a measure of the man's tactical acumen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1500261/A-robot-in-the-headlights.html
They are the officer class. They give orders.
And if that doesn't return a thumping Tory majority in Newark next Thursday I shall eat my entire collection of Maison du Chocolat Truffle Collection in a single sitting.
http://bit.ly/1kXhSGS
I've seen a few in the area but would never have expected that many. I imagine that they tend to be hidden for environmental purposes.
Helmer drives a British Racing Green Jaguar btw. The Jeremy Clarkson stereotype lives on.
He felt that it was the only way that Roger Helmer would understand the remark.
Oh ye of little faith.
All things are possible with the lord!
Spelthorne in Surrey is the mining capital of England and Wales.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-27538888
You Cameroons might have realised that if your focus groups had extended beyond Notting Hill dinner parties.
I think you'll find all the nodding donkeys had been moved to Kelham Hall for the afternoon.
That is why they may have been scarce on the ground in Newark's environs.
He went to Eton too if I remember correctly.
A colour which Alan referred to in his diaries as "jewish racing yellow".
[P.S, You can add this to my list of transgressions, ar]
Didn't Wellington have a little assistance from another general at that battle, without which he would have been in a right "Eton mess"?
I was thinking more of the Tutonic one, rather than a third rate "smoke and mirrors" magician.
But feel free to tell me how England won World War two.
I need cheering up.
Hate the sin, not the sinner.
New Center Parcs opening in Bedfordshire on 6th June:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/article-2644766/A-new-Center-Parcs-opening-Woburn-Forest-form-orderly-queue-please.html
Take at look at the constituency threads at UKPR for the last seven years if you want evidence.
Likewise there are PBers who will confirm that I was saying how aggravated the wwc were and how weak Labour's traditional support among them was before the recession even started.
Have you ever considered that the voters who decide general elections are rather more like David Davis than your own good self ?
Now we can have pointless hypothetical arguments about whether a different Conservative leader would have done better among the wwc. But one thing we do know is that Cameron did far WORSE than expected among those demographics he targeted and which were loudly predicted by his cheerleaders to be flocking to him.
So with you Cameroons proving to WRONG about the things you were supposed to know about (and which incidentally I was proved RIGHT about) I will assume that I would have been proved RIGHT about the things I do know about and that you would have been proved WRONG about the thing you don't know about ie that the Conservatives could have done significantly better among the wwc.
THE secret payments that helped Qatar to win the World Cup bid are revealed for the first time this weekend in a bombshell cache of millions of documents leaked to The Sunday Times.
The files expose how Qatar’s astonishing victory in the race to secure the right to host the 2022 tournament was sealed by a covert campaign by Mohamed bin Hammam, the country’s top football official.
The Qatari vice-president of Fifa, the governing body of world football, used secret slush funds to make dozens of payments totalling more than $5m to senior football officials to create a groundswell of support for Qatar’s plan to take world football by storm.
This weekend and over the coming weeks this newspaper will expose how Bin Hammam exploited his position at the heart of world football to help to secure from the key members of Fifa’s 24-man ruling committee the votes that Qatar needed to win.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/fifa/article1417325.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10867666/Stolen-election-in-the-heart-of-London.html
The wwc were the Germans and Dutch, the middle class leftists were the French.
Nothing wrong in a little oiling of the wheels to aid clarity of thought, ask "Glaxo" or one of the other "pharma" companies
And how was he thanked?
Bloody ingrates!
I am not a Cameroon - I don't like the man (partly based on my limited interaction, but also because my mother - who is a very good judge of character - has taken strongly against him). I voted for him because he was better than DD. In my vie - as I have said on many occasions - the Tories should be the party of the SME, the entrepreneur, the skilled worker and the aspirational.
For me they should focus on winning the midlands and the market towns in the north. I doubt that they will ever make that much headway in the industrial areas of the North of the urban metropolises (although they shouldn't abandon them, either).
Can you imagine if you were on trial, and the jury would make more money on you being found guilty than being found innocent.
Just read the headlines.
But he won nearly 100 seats - one of the best performances by an opposition in recent history.
I feel sure the soldiers at Sula Bay would have shown him their gratitude.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/01/uganda-anti-gay-minister-human-rights-kutesa
" Derbyshire NE, Rother Valley, Don Valley, Bassetlaw and Penistone/Stocksbridge have near identical social makeups and election results.
They have a number of characteristics that could bode well for the Conservatives in future:
Extremely white, very few students, no extremes in wealth, socially conservative, distrust of London and Europe, good motorway communications leading to new commuter developments, formerly dominated by old-labour industry (coal) but no longer, discredited local Labour party.
With the right sort of leader (David Davis would be better in these areas than David Cameron) and Rosindell style local candidates the Conservatives would have great potential.
This may sound far-fetched but how many people would have predicted only 10 years ago that the Republicans could win West Virginia (by 15% no less) whilst losing New Hampshire.
This could also apply to the four Labour constituencies in Cumbria.
July 11th, 2007 at 9:41 pm "
Notice the date, its from the period when the media were eulogising Brown and Cameron thought Southall a better target than Sedgefield.
Tell us Charles what were you expecting back in the summer of 2007 ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zR6E_HZCQAI
As for Latvian homophobes, I prefer them to the terrorist supporters in the Party of European Socalists. How do you get sitting with such awful people past in the European Parliament past your conscience?
This one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyzPP_DaTJY
Uh-Oh, the party of British Jobs for British Workers is being told it must take tougher line on 'mass migration' from Europe, Miliband told
Ed Miliband is facing a backbench revolt over immigration policy as senior Labour MPs publicly warn of catastrophic consequences for the party unless he seeks constraints on the free movement of EU workers.
The unrestricted entry of EU citizens from eastern Europe since 2004 is hurting the "very communities that the Labour party was founded to represent", the MPs claim in an open letter published in the Observer.
Miliband is urged by the rebels, including two former ministers, to commit a Labour government to seeking to constrain the free movement of labour from European countries with much lower incomes than the UK, such as Romania and Bulgaria. Two million national insurance numbers have been issued to nationals from eastern European accession countries since 2004.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/31/labour-tough-line-mass-migration
Brown's trip to Rochdale obviously being some masterstroke beyond the understanding of ordinary people.
The reality was Labour's campaign was crap and the Conservative campaign was crap.
The Cleggasm came about as a response to this crapness of the two main parties.
People wanted change and for a few brief days Clegg seemed to be the route to it. But after than the more people saw of Clegg the more the doubts grew, hence the LibDems falling away during the final week.
Already corrected it Limp Pole, but I award you a medal for pedantry above and beyond the call of duty.
You can wear it as you sneer at those that won the "real ones"
I shall also add your mum to my list of people who really should be listened to, though not necessarily agreed with, when it comes to politicians. Sunil's Mum is in the same category, even if she does tell him off for reading this site at the supper table.
What a punch to finish it by Froch.
Awesome champion.
I hope Ed slaps down this suggestion quickly, but knowing him, he and Douglas Alexander will dither for weeks before eventually coming out with some weak triangulated split-the-difference mess. What they need to do is try to convince people that the reason life in this country is so shit is not because of immigrants, but because of greedy bosses thinking they can rip off their employees and don't have a responsibility to provide decent wages and conditions for them, greedy landlords and big multinationals who think their mission in life is to rip ordinary people off, and the super-rich who feel they don't have to pay their taxes and can sponge off the society the rest of us are paying for. If they get people thinking that they are the real enemies, then people will turn to Labour for answers. But people naturally want someone to blame for the country and their lives being ruined, and as long as left-wing parties are too scared to point the finger of blame at those elites, it's always going to be shameless right-wing populists who blame immigrants and benefit-claimants who fill the void.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 22 secs
Just 13% think Clegg is doing a good job. 78% do not. Minus 65% rating is worse than Gordon Brown's minus 62 in depths of the crisis
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 2 mins
YouGov poll for Sunday Times reveals Nick Clegg now the least popular political elder in modern British history. Approval rating of minus 65
LLama man I'm just listening to Johnny Cash with my daughter,.
Sometimes you have to get your priorities right and politics sits below Johnny Cash.
Nick Clegg now the least popular British Leader of all time.
Just 13% think Clegg is doing a good job. 78% do not. Minus 65% rating is worse than Gordon Brown's minus 62 in depths of the crisis
One of her favourite stories was when she asked Richard Hilton to explain what his daughter actually did
Clegg's -65 approval rating in Sunday Times poll is the worst ever recorded by YouGov. In 2010 he was +72 and most popular since Churchill
One of Stalin's big mistakes.
Summed up in this BBC correspondent's report from Moscow in 1998:
Nobody dared tell him [Josef] that poplars have sex lives - that every female needs a male. Plant too many females and the males can't fertilise them. Which is exactly what happened. Moscow has an enormous surfeit of sexually frustrated female poplars, which every June release a thick stream of unfertilised seeds into the atmosphere - in a word, pukh.
Full article here: http://bbc.in/1kcIyVa
Perhaps Russian sexual frustration has migrated to Regent's Park?
Lib Den activists tell S.Times they have begun no confidence proceedings in 190 constituency parties. only 75 needed to trigger election
Ukip have written to Ofcom demanding access for Farage to debates and equal air time as major party in general election. See Sunday Times
Ukip have written to Ofcom demanding access for Farage to debates and equal air time as major party in general election. See Sunday Times