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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the Ge
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the Geneal Election
ComRes have polled on behalf of UKIP donor Paul Sykes asking what UKIP voters in the Euros would do at the next General Election, the telegraph reports that
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I think it's spelt "Genial Election".
If he wore the purple AND blue, would Dave dare deselect him?
I am disappointed, "Genital Erection" would have been a far better typo.
It reminds me of Alan Bennett referring to the closure of public libraries as "child abuse", though he may be more circumspect about using such language post Charlize Theron's remarks on rape.
The long gallery at Apethorpe Hall could indeed sleep a hundred fruit pickers. Although when an Approved School for Boys (1948-1982 - roughly) it was subdivided. If I remember the historical accounts correctly, this happened after some undesired fruit picking of which Alan Bennett would not approve.
If not, who holds that distinction?
Although as a resident of Hertsmere, my vote doesn't count for much under FPTP
It's a 2 horse race.
What would your average Lady Mayoress do in a boudoir?
Turn it into a media room with a seventy inch flat screen and home theatre system I suspect.
Sorry Avery, duty takes me elsewhere.
But our mindless ping pong (or indeed wiff waff) was fun.
We can do it all again later, with another subject if you desire?
No need to worry about the ComRes poll findings.
Kippers are certain about everything.
They are certain they placed their keys on the hall table. They are certain that their grandchildren are coming to lunch this Sunday. They are certain they will vote UKIP next May.
Just smile sweetly and serve them a cup of tea.
Has been a very good constituency MP, but would prefer someone with a higher profile.
Boris would be cool though
dave will prove to be a most assiduous teaboy if he loses newark..
Not only that but close to 300 UKIP activists very active in Newark today.
Why does anybody take any notice of a donor funded poll by ComRes - the firm that was overstated Ukip more than any other in the EP14 campaign?
The media narrative is all purple at the moment. We must not get overwhelmed.
momentum
Feeling that you'd support them today - yes. That you'd support them in a few weeks, okay. That you'd support them next year ... a lot harder to put confidence into. Especially given the atmosphere over the past month or so.
It may well be that UKIP will hold on to a decent chunk of this support - but it's got to be more likely that a significant chunk will fall away.
My best guess is that it could be anywhere between 6% and 15% next year, and that we really don't have enough reliable information to narrow it down much further. And either extreme won't amount to many (if any) seats.
Not only that but close to 300 UKIP activists very active in Newark today.
Repeating my comment on the previous thread.
Very gay, me old Weathercock.
But where are the women?
Domestic duties?
"But where are the women?"
twitter.com/_Chris_Adams/status/472735843053211648/photo/1
Same meeting, different view..
ps: has dave done a public meeting yet? He's primeminister, surely somebody came?
BTW, I can offer you an escape from the L/Dems: Join UKIP.
I now have a new perspective of UKIP.
Jeremy Browne @JeremyBrowneMP 51m
Drinking in Sheffield.
Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 39m
@JeremyBrowneMP to the good health and prosperity of your leader, no doubt
Jeremy Browne @JeremyBrowneMP 17m
@ShippersUnbound It's in his (electorally secure) constituency!
You mean they are all ex-conservatives?
When you look at the crowd, you see a lot of right arms raised at an unfortunate angle
twitter.com/halfon4harlowMP/status/472761190389919744/photo/1
Not only that but close to 300 UKIP activists very active in Newark today.
reminds me of Crosby '81...
It's the same audience a third of a century later, Sir Roderick.
Just a little less sprightly (more spritely perhaps).
The LD local election results however do look like a trend:
2010: 24%
2011: 16%
2012: 15%
2013: 13%
2014: 11%
Interestingly, if the the 83GE had been only 11months after Crosby81, Roy Jenkins would probably have been PM.
We can better that..
Sounds like they're gearing up for a street brawl.
I have to tell you that I am still in shock at Gareth's translation of the last line of that Italian article on College.
When the Italian press start portraying Farage as a friend by which the comedian Beppe Grillo should be judged, one does wonder what is happening in Europe.
And on the one hand, we've got the well known tendency of people to gravitate back to what they did/felt before - and on the other, the iconoclastic desire to break past the current established options.
I've long been of the opinion that the disillusionment that many of the electorate have with the political process and the concomitant worldwide dropping in turnout figures, near-contempt of politicians in general and now the surge to A N Other option come from seeds sewn by the partisans and tribalists themselves. One example that springs to mind is the Labour PPB on "The Un-Credible Shrinking Man". Purely bashing. I could certainly grab ones from other parties as well, mind you.
It may have worked well in the past when there was a greater tendency to align oneself with a political tribe, but now we have the problem that most people listen to all sides, dismiss the positive bits that each side says about itself with "Well, they would say that, wouldn't they" ... and believe the negative ones. From all of them.
So the various parties have convinced the public: Tories are evil, grasping and heartless. Labour are stupid, warmongering and Britain-hating. Lib Dems are treacherous, self-serving and indecisive.
So - why should we expect the public to turn out and vote for one of the main choice if they've been assured that the choices are:
A - Evil
B - Stupid
C - Treacherous?
And should we be surprised that they search for someone - anyone - else?
Con 39%
Lab 39%
LDem 23%
UKIP 33%
Very true.
And on the one hand, we've got the well known tendency of people to gravitate back to what they did/felt before - and on the other, the iconoclastic desire to break past the current established options.
I've long been of the opinion that the disillusionment that many of the electorate have with the political process and the concomitant worldwide dropping in turnout figures, near-contempt of politicians in general and now the surge to A N Other option come from seeds sewn by the partisans and tribalists themselves. One example that springs to mind is the Labour PPB on "The Un-Credible Shrinking Man". Purely bashing. I could certainly grab ones from other parties as well, mind you.
It may have worked well in the past when there was a greater tendency to align oneself with a political tribe, but now we have the problem that most people listen to all sides, dismiss the positive bits that each side says about itself with "Well, they would say that, wouldn't they" ... and believe the negative ones. From all of them.
So the various parties have convinced the public: Tories are evil, grasping and heartless. Labour are stupid, warmongering and Britain-hating. Lib Dems are treacherous, self-serving and indecisive.
So - why should we expect the public to turn out and vote for one of the main choice if they've been assured that the choices are:
A - Evil
B - Stupid
C - Treacherous?
And should we be surprised that they search for someone - anyone - else?
I like your summary.
The vast majority of the people I know are non political.
Many take the view that no matter who you vote for. You get screwed.
They haven't been screwed by UKIP yet, so what's to lose by voting for them as the alternatives are no better.
I suppose that also explains why May is happy to sign over so much power to the EU. Tories are only interested paying lip service to limiting the power of the EU over our affairs. In reality they are more than happy to see control of our Justice system slip away to Brussels.
If this is what an "able and effective" home secretary looks like, I'd hate to see what a bad one is. May is a disgrace.
MRNAMELESS
'UKIP claim they had 500 canvassers here this morning. I doubt it was that high but certainly in decent three figures. Farage has been here today. Spoke to some Tory people who think they’re about to lose.'
With Gordon Brown as Prime Minister at the moment, their focus would be on the fight for the soul of the Tory party.
When I enter into a commercial contract with a overseas counterparty, the contract will be subject to an agreed jurisdiction and an arbitral process may additionally agreed under the jurisdiction of a different country, often not that of either of the principal parties to the contract (Sweden seems to have cornered this market).
Sometimes the anti-EU cause can drive its advocates to such unjustified hyperbole.
As for reform happening, this is complete drivel. Dumping on the world market still happens. Highly perverse economic incentives remain. Overproduction is still huge. The cost of CAP has just gone up and up and up. The fact other wastes of money in the EU budget have gone up more doesn't make it any better. If we can't get decent reform in 13 years of New Labour being 'at the heart of Europe', and giving away half our rebate, when can we ever reasonably expect reform? You're banging your head on the same wall over and over and expecting a different result.
http://home.bt.com/news/worldnews/caption-competition-heads-up-for-salmond-11400793699731
I have no problem with parties to a contract voluntarily subjecting themselves to the jurisdiction of foreign courts. That in not comparable to what is being proposed. It may be argued that ceding sovereignty is both "pragmatic and sensible". That in no way stops what the government is proposing being a session of sovereignty. There is a reason that when the sovereignty of the Crown-in-Parliament was first declared, it was done in an Act in restraint of appeals in 1533.
"..ceding jurisdiction over the liberty of the subject.."
"When I enter into a commercial contract with a overseas counterparty.."
You appear to confusing commercial law with the criminal law.
Unless of course you are trading rather esoteric "goods". I had thought the Royal Navy put a stop to that in the 1840's.
My point is simple.
UK issues EAW to seek extradition of German national to the UK for trial on a professional negligence manslaughter type charge.
Germany resists EAW by fiddling with procedure.
How is the matter to be resolved?
Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe 8m
Great @DerSPIEGEL exclusive: Cameron tells Merkel he can no longer guarantee UK's EU membership if Juncker runs EC. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cameron-droht-merkel-wegen-juncker-lucke-will-zu-tories-a-972685.html …
Wish they could both lose
Piers Morgan @piersmorgan · 47m
I have 228 as the over-under with @Jeffrey_Archer on England's score. He's over, I'm under. He's feeling confident. So am I.. #Lords
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My argument on appeals is not dependent on the EAW being good law. It follows from the assumption that the treaty obligation exists.
But I am happy for the the subject to be changed.
The fact there is no process for adjudicating international disputes on extradition proceedings is a systemic weakness not grounds for opposing its geographically limited introduction elsewhere.
But I was just pointing out to Socrates that "able and effective" does not necessarily imply that he likes the outcome. For instance, I think Putin is an able and effective leader of Russia, but I'd hate to live in a country ruled by him.
Jurisdiction is always a fight (particularly when Americans are involved) but the ones I've seen usual end up as England, Germany, or Switzerland (for arbitration). I've worked under Danish and Norwegian law before, but only when they were my clients and I had instructions to absolutely not budge on the issue.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10867373/Cameron-warned-Merkel-over-Britain-quitting-European-Union.html